This is plain crazy – according to various reports Hamas has shot missiles at the city of Jerusalem. According to the BBC “militants said they wanted to hit the Israeli parliament”. The missiles missed their targets and landed on the south side of the city without causing any damage.
What Hamas did today is sheer lunacy, there is no other way of putting it. Shooting missiles which are so inaccurate at a city which contains not only what Jews think of as the “wailing wall“, but also the al-Aqsa mosque, the Dome of the Rock and the Holy Sepulchre is absolutely irresponsible. Just imagine what would have happened if any of these buildings had been hit!
Keep in mind that the distance between, say, the Knesset building and the Dome of the Rock is less than 3km:
It is impossible to fire an extended range but not accurate rocket like the Qassam M75/76 at the Knesset without a very real probability of hitting the Old City of Jerusalem and the sacred buildings it contains.
What Hamas just did is absolutely irresponsible and cannot be justified by any excuse, not even the savage brutality of the Israelis. Finally, Hamas just gave the Israelis the perfect excuse to intervene and “disarm Hamas”.
If “political Darwin Awards” were given out – Hamas most certainly would deserve one.
The Saker
Sorry Saker, I have to completely disagree with this. The chance of Hamas hitting anything valuable with a handful of missiles is so remote that it isn’t worth worrying about. The Psychological and perception effect of hitting the Jerusalem area is substantial, especially since the rockets landed in an area thick with settlers. They are trying to force Netanyahoo to escalate to a ground invasion. If he does, Hamas will have a chance to inflict real casualties. If he doesn’t It will seem like Hamas faced him down and he blinked.
It’s obvious that there is no comparison between Hamas and Israel in firepower and in many ways it’s a game of chicken between a mac truck and a bicycle. The real battle is one of perception. Consider:
1)N’yahoo wanted an easy win to help his election. He may still win, but now he looks weaker than before. And if he F*&^s up with a ground invasion that goes sour, he will be joining Olmert.
2) Hamas has established a modicum of deterrence. Israelis will think twice before assassinating Hamas leaders in the future. There will be much less political incentive to start another conflict.
3) They have rallied the Muslim world behind them. By denying Israel the perception of an easy win, they put the Saudi royals and King “Jaba the Hut” Abdullah (tm Colm O’Toole) in a very awkward position.
It’s still to early to tell, but so far, Hamas is doing MUCH better than 2008/9 precisely BECAUSE they are putting many more Israelis in at least a modicum of inconvenience in TA and Jerusalem.
I’m giving all my prayers to the people of Gaza as they resist a horrible and wicked enemy.
P.S. when this is over, I’m very much looking forward to your assessment :-)
@Lysander: allow me to re-arrange your points into two arguments:
a) the risk of firing Qassam missiles at Jerusalem is acceptable
b) Hamas is doing (much) better than in 2008/2009.
Ok. I totally disagree with the first argument, here is why: when assessing any risk, one should multiply the probability of an undesired outcome by the consequences of the undesired outcome: r=p*c. Let’s take two examples. Riding my mountain bike: the probability that I will one day fall off my bike is pretty high, but the consequences of such a fall are rather low. All in all, the risk is acceptable. Compare that with walking on a field where there is one landmine buried somewhere. The risk of actually stepping on it is rather low, but the consequences are catastrophic. I would not walk across such a field. Make sense?
Well, while I agree that the probability of striking the Holy Sepulchre or the Dome of the Rock is rather limited, it is my contention that the consequences of a strike on any of the sacred buildings of Jerusalem would be absolutely apocalyptic and that therefore even if this probability (p) tends to be very small, the consequences (c) are almost infinite, and the risk therefore absolutely unacceptable.
Still not convinced?
Then let me add this: I studied with an Israeli solider who told me that his worst nightmare was that the “crazies” (his expression) in Israel would sooner or later blow up the Rock of the Dome and al-Aqsa mosque. According to him, the religious crackpots were closely lined to the security services and they were hell bent on getting rid of the current buildings and rebuilding the Temple to make it possible for their Mashiach to rule the world. Crazy? Well, this is the prayer all religious Jews read three times a day:
Return in compassion to Your city, Jerusalem, and rest within it as You have said. Rebuild it speedily, and in our days, a structure forever. And may You establish the throne of David within Jerusalem speedily. Blessed are You, Lord, the Builder of Jerusalem.
(more info here: http://www.hebrew4christians.com/Prayers/Daily_Prayers/Shemoneh_Esrei/shemoneh_esrei.html)
Now let me ask you this: if tomorrow in the middle of the night the Dome of the Rock or al-Aqsa are blown up, and if the Israelis say that the missile which it them was shot from Gaza, how the hell will Hamas prove that they did not do it?!
What is easier, to pull-off 9/11 or to blow up a building in your own city and blame it on folks who are firing missiles at the same location?
One more, last, argument: I am a firm believer in Murphy’s Law. For some darn reason, everything that can go wrong, will go wrong.
Have you ever been to Jerusalem? Its an amazing place, like nothing else. It is filled with holy places, it is literally saturated with history and holiness. I am talking about the Old City here, not the new city build much later. This is, of course, subjective, but my very strong feeling is that on responsible human could ever shoot any weapon at this spot, it is literally too saturated with a spirituality which every visitor – even non-religious folks – feels. Add Murphy’s Law to that, and a possibility for disaster turns into a guarantee of disaster.
I don’t know if I have convinced you, but if not then I gave it my best shot.
Now let’s look into Hamas’ performance so far (to be continued)
@Lysander:
… continuation.
You make a very good case that Hamas is doing better and feeling confident. To this I can only sincerely say Insha’Allah!
But I will tell you honestly that what I see so far is a lot of bark, and little bite. Hamas promised to open the “gates of hell” only to fire a few poorly aimed rockets are Israel. Yesterday, they announced that they had shot down an Israeli F-16 and that they were looking for the pilot, only to “forget” it later.
Your strongest argument is when you say: They are trying to force Netanyahoo to escalate to a ground invasion. If he does, Hamas will have a chance to inflict real casualties. If he doesn’t It will seem like Hamas faced him down and he blinked.
That is, indeed, a very strong argument because, if true, that would mean that Hamas is on the initiative, that it is imposing the terms of the conflict upon the Israelis and not vice versa. If/when the Israelis enter Gaza, we will see if that is true or not. I also hope and pray with all my heart that it is. Please keep in mind that if I am frustrated and, frankly, disgusted with the Palestinian leadership, I still am 100% behind the Palestinian people and their cause, and I do wish them well. I pray for the day with this obscene racist experiment called the “Jewish state of Israel” is terminated (like the Soviet Union or Apartheid South Africa were) and replaced by a single, one man one vote, democratic state of all the inhabitants of Palestine. So, believe me, I am 100% pro-Palestinian and 100% anti-Israeli. But that does not mean that I will always cheer each action of the Palestinian leadership, and recently they have really been pissing me off…
So far, I am unimpressed. As far as I know, Bibi still has popular support, which is not surprising, since most Israeli Jews are racists and stupid. Neither do I have a sense of the Israelis being deterred. Last night they blew up the Hamas HQ – is that the action of a deterred party?! As for the support of the Muslim world, it is not worth the paper or air it is expressed through. Think of it: all the FSA needs to do is turn south and attack Israel, but no, they are busy trying to submit Syria to the USA! What about the Egyptians and their huge military. They are sitting on their fat asses doing *nothing*. Forgive me for saying so, but the support of the Muslim/Arab world is a great concept, but one that the Israelis will laugh at, and they will be right.
You know where I put my hopes? I hope that Hamas as really prepared Gaza for an Israeli invasion and that, unlike last time, they will be ready not only to defend the main axis of penetration, but each and every building since the Israelis will basically plow through and create their own axis of penetration, directly through buildings and houses. I hope that Hamas combat engineers have foreseen this and that they have carefully modeled the choices of the Israelis and set traps along the likely axis of advance. I also hope that Hamas has made plans to lure the Israeli forces as deep inside Gaza as possible, since once their forces make it into a build up area, and once it is in close contact with Hamas fighters, the Israelis will be unable to use their airpower for close air support. Last, but not least, I hope that Gaza is literally saturated with Russian anti-tank weapons and skilled sniper teams.
We shall see soon and we will definitely have the opportunity to evaluate it all once it is over.
Kind regards, my friend, and take care.
The Saker
In the Netherlands there is an author who since 20 years is an advocate of the Palestinian case. She lives in Gaza half of the time, has a good weblog and was on the Dutch ‘Newsnight’ yesterday evening.
Here is what she has to say:
Jabari was working to real peace with Israel. He did all he could to stop the rockets going to Israel.
But a Palestinian who works for peace runs a very high risk to be killed by the Israeli’s. That is what we learn from the past.
Corroborating her story is an article in Haaretz: http://tiny.cc/pt6wnw
You can find the whole article below the Dutch text: http://tiny.cc/zv6wnw
Summary of the article: Gershon Baskin who mediated between Hamas and Israel in the release of Gilad Shalit, continued his contacts with Jabari, and together with Egypt they had almost reached a definite plan for peace:
“In recent months Baskin was continuously in touch with Hamas officials and with Egyptian intelligence as well as with officials in Israel, whose names he refuses to divulge. A few months ago Baskin showed Defense Minister Ehud Barak a draft of the agreement and on the basis of that draft an inter-ministry committee on the issue was established. The agreement was to have constituted a basis for a permanent truce between Israel and Hamas, which would prevent the repeated rounds of shooting.”
Baskin also says that Hamas deliberately aimed at open fields with their rockets.
Greetings, J.V.
Saker,
Those are all very valid points but…
When assessing risk, you also have to evaluate context. You would never cross a field with one mine to save 10 minutes walking home. But if you are being chased by nasty people and cutting across the field offered you a good chance of escape, you would consider it.
Similarly, Hamas’ ONLY means of ending this attack and making Israel reconsider the next one is to inconvenience the largest number of Israelis possible. Jerusalem is Israel’s largest city.
False flags are always a risk, but they have maintain a modicum of plausibility. If the Izzies demolition the Dome of the Rock, it simply wont look like a rocket attack. Granted the western media pretends to believe ANYTHING the Israelis tell them, but it doesn’t mean the world will.
Hamas’ exaggeration, bluster and false claims are tedious, I admit.
We all know that Hamas can’t possibly defeat Israel. They really can’t even put up much of a fight. But because of that every minor accomplishment is magnified.
The Arab countries are of no help at all, I admit. But last time Egypt was an active COLLABORATOR with Israel. If this time it stays neutral, that is a huge improvement.
Also, since the revolutions of the last couple of years (whether staged of real) the crowns of the puppets rest much less easily than before. Jordan’s king is at risk. His fall would be a huge setback for Israel, even if a new government avoids open confrontation, it will at least avoid collaboration.
And now the fall of the house of Saud is a plausibility (even if still highly unlikely) and becomes more plausible should Jordan’s government fall.
I don’t need to tell you how that would affect western plans for the region. If either of those governments fall, Israel’s attack on Gaza would be a strategic catastrophe no matter how the IDF wins on the ground.
P.S. this is only a disagreement about specific tactics. There is plenty about Hamas that deserves criticism. I certainly never doubted your sincere and principled opposition to Zionism and I’m grateful for it :-)
@Lysander:this is only a disagreement about specific tactics
Agreed. Let us hope that God will help the Palestinians overcome the current onslaught against them and beat back the Zionists!
Cheers,
The Saker
Agreed. If Hamas is going to fire missiles that can’t be precisely targeted they’d be better advised to aim them at Tel Aviv rather than Jerusalem. That would have the same deterrence effect without risking triggering catastrophe.
I doubt the Isrealis will actually invade Gaza any more than they did last time since that would risk significant casualties and would not help Bibi’s election chances.