By Pepe Escobar with permission and first posted on Asia Times
It’s one of those quintessential journeys that make people dream: Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad by train. Let’s call it ITI.
Soon, in early 2021, ITI will become a reality. But, initially, just as a freight train. The deal was recently sealed at the 10th meeting of the transport and communication ministers of ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization) in Istanbul.
ITI’s official name is actually the ECO Container Train. Trial runs started in 2019. The 6,500 km overland journey should now take 11 days – compared to the roughly 45 days across sealanes for trade between Western Europe and Pakistan.
ECO is a very interesting – and strategic – organization, virtually unknown outside of Asia, uniting Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, the five Central Asian “stans”, Azerbaijan and Afghanistan.
Some of these players are also members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO); some are part of the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU); and almost all of them are partners to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
They have come up with a ECO Vision 2025 that emphasizes connectivity as a springboard to “social and economic development”, privileging trade, transportation, energy and tourism. ECO seeks to de facto integrate West, Central and South Asia plus the Caucasus. For all practical purposes, ECO straddles most of the New Silk Roads developing across a large part of Eurasia.
That pesky Sultan, again
The ITI/ECO Container Train will be yet another layer of connectivity running in parallel to the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway, centered on the Caucasus, and as we have seen in a previous Turkey/New Great Game column, a key plank of Ankara’s trade strategy.
Soon, ITI/ECO will also link with the European rail networks via that 76-km long engineering marvel – the undersea Marmaray railway tunnel in Istanbul. Of course opportunities abound for branching out to parts of the Middle East. By the end of the decade, ITI/ECO may well go high-speed rail – think Chinese investment.
The fascinating counterpoint to the Marmaray undersea tunnel is the Trans-Caspian: the actual connection between the BTK in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
As you can see here , the strategically designed layout of the ports allows instant roll on-roll off from the cargo trains to huge freight ferries.
Iran, for instance, is building a roll on-roll off shipping port in Bandar-e Anzalī on the Caspian Sea – which will be used to export merchandise but also oil and gas transiting via Russia or Kazakhstan, both Caspian nations, and thus bypassing any further blockade imposed by the US.
The interlink of ITI/ECO with BTK will solidify yet another important East-West trade corridor. Apart from the northern corridors linking with the Trans-Siberian, every East-West trade corridor across Eurasia goes through Turkey. That gives President Erdogan a wealth of options – as Beijing knows too well. The Xian-Istanbul corridor is as important as the Xian-Kazakhstan-Russia corridor.
Our previous Turkey/New Great Game column provoked serious debate in Istanbul. Political analyst Ceyda Karan remarked Erdogan “has only one card: Turkish geopolitics. He doesn’t care how many soldiers will die in Libya or Syria. He doesn’t care about the Turkish people”.
Esteemed Professor Korkut Boratav, now a nonagenarian eminence in macroeconomics, wondered how I could “ascribe those important roles to our chief”, referencing Erdogan.
Well, it’s all about playing geoeconomics. Erdogan certainly has leveraged his Rolodex across Eurasia, in terms of foreign policy, going no holds barred in the manipulation of all sorts of proxy gangs practicing all manner of extremisms. But ultimately what The Sultan really needs is trade and foreign investment in his battered economy.
So trade connectivity is essential. But the problem always remains his own strategy. Supporting, feeding and weaponizing an army of ISIS/Daesh, Jabhat al-Nusra, and Uighur/Caucasian jihadi proxies is not exactly a sound business strategy.
Erdogan seems to be everywhere – Libya, Azerbaijan, the Turkish-northwest Syrian border. Strategists in Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and Islamabad of course are asking questions: what for, exactly?
There’s no realistic geoeconomic scenario for him to bypass Russia. He may use Azerbaijan as a sort of de luxe messenger between Turkey and Israel – and perhaps, subsequently, profit from Israel’s courtship of Persian Gulf monarchies. After all, as far as allies in the Arab world are concerned, the only player he can really count on is Qatar. Follow the money: Doha by itself won’t finance an economic boom in Turkey.
Let a million trade corridors bloom
Silly rumors about the demise of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are greatly exaggerated – considering they are a sub-section of American propaganda. CPEC is a complex, very long-term project whose implementation, according to the Chinese timetable, has not even started.
What Islamabad must be aware of is how much sexier, in comparison, is Tehran, when seen with Beijing’s eyes. Pakistan counts mostly on Imran Khan’s efforts. Iran has a wealth of oil, gas, gold and an array of crucial minerals. As India famously shot itself in the back – once again – by de facto abdicating from investing in Chabahar port in Iran, China stepped in. The $400 billion China-Iran deal is way more comprehensive than CPEC, at roughly $64 billion.
Back on the road, the good news is Iran-Pakistan seem to be focused on increasing connectivity. It boggles the mind that until recently there was only one crossing along their 900 km border. Finally they decided to open two more border gateways.
This is hugely important, because the first gateway is in ultra-sensitive Sistan-Balochistan province – constantly susceptible to Salafi-jihadi infiltrators – and only 70 km away from strategic Gwadar port.
As far as tourism goes – what the Chinese describe as “people to people exchange” – that’s an extra dimension, because Pakistanis can now easily cross the border, reach Chabahar, and then go by train to Iran’s holy sites Najaf and Karbala.
Finally, there’s the all-important Russian factor – which always commands Erdogan’s undivided attention.
Arguably Moscow’s top strategic priority is to decouple the EU from any US/NATO-imposed Dr. Strangelove impulses. So a EU trade alliance with Beijing – now in progress, via their investment treaty – cannot but be a win-win, as it spells out closer European integration with the Eurasian century, driven by China but with Russia, crucially, positioned as the premier security provider.
And as President Putin once again made it clear in his year end’s vows, BRI and the EAEU are increasingly merging.
Quite a few readers have noted that Russia has now achieved the tripartite capacity that Kissinger once declared essential for US strategic leadership: mastery of weapons exports; control of energy flows; and agriculture exports. Not to mention diplomatic finesse – widely respected all across Eurasia and the Global South.
Meanwhile, Eurasia goes with the flow: let a million trade corridors – Trans-Siberian, BTK, ITI/ECO – bloom.
The more Pepe comments the more we see the demise of the US economic empire.
Failing empires are often the subject of satire. Such is why I take the easy course and see satire in the US as its hegonomy is failing. When empires fail it is very easy to separate those who will support them in their death spiral and those who see the humour in the decline. Note Blackadder, Peter Sellers et al who satarised the British Empire for years and all the way to its final demise. Sadly the American sense of humour is not the same as the British. It lacks the subtelty and self examination of the British model. As their society is more agressive and brutal so is their humour. The Russian and European sense of humour is also more subtle than the American. Why is that? Is there anyone in the CIA or the FBI in the US that could understand George Smiley.
I fear those without a sense of humour are the most dangerous folk on the planet.
If you recruit sociopaths and psychopaths, you wind up over the years since the transition from OSS to CIA with an organization of criminals. A few are purely obsessed and compulsed ideologues, but the vast majority of station chiefs, base chiefs, operational officers, targeting officers of the clandestine division are lunatics. A few analytical types might be sane and balanced bureaucrats and technocrats.
You get what you pay for. The Deep State and Shadow Government wants reckless men and women who will do anything necessary regardless of outcome or theoretical purpose.
This is why the CIA fails so much of late. They have no sense of any outcome other than what they plan. There are no consequences when they fail.
They have become similar to American military. They break things and kill people.
Worthless for Intelligence collection and most analyses.
CIA also has very divided “loyalties”. Israel has deeply and widely penetrated Langley. The old division was the Arabists vs the Zionists. That’s long gone. There is no division any longer. It’s always about Israel.
Our Empire had gone long before Blackadder came on the scene. It was done in 1945, even if formal independence for colonies took place over the next 20 years….
Pax Eurasia. May infrastructure bring peace to the world for 1000 years. Building bridges and not blowing them up.
I’m sorry to have to be the one to break it to you, Mr. Escobar, but Najaf and Karbala are in Iraq. I know there’s only a difference of a single letter between the names Iraq and Iran, but they are undoubtedly separate countries.
Yes, but I suspect that Pepe had in mind that the two cities are sacred to the Shia.
logistic and technical comments/questions:
a) HAIFA, with the new robotised container port, as usual built by the Chinese, where does that fit in!! Hardly any near future viable rail links from Syria-Iraq .. just the inevitable squabbling over pipelines.
Or is this just for Tel-Aviv´s self-prestige to back up their pilfered oil-gas fields, they are stealing from Lebanon and Palestine-Gaza.!!
b) How large are/will be the ´roll-on roll off´ train-container ferries on the Caspian Sea? Available images of ferries are under 10.000 tons – inadequate. Again could also be fully robotised and up 60.000 tons to deal with a heavy traffic flow.
b) Chinese have developed hi-tech. and apparently effective rail track technology to deal with the extensive challenge of perma-frost-ice melt in Tibet. This could clearly be applied, or has already been used, in parts of Northern Russia-Eastern Sibera where rail and road links are under enormous strain.
c) the Turkish Marmaray tunnel, 13.5 km, was a joint venture with the Japanese Taisei Consortium. Therefore, be interesting to see a Russian-Chinese-Japanese venture to undertake the Beiring Straits tunnel, 87 km, by 2030…respecting seismic and political tremors!!
Pepe’s was basically a lone voice in the wilderness several years ago, when he was writing of the foundations being laid for these current successful developments, so a tip of the hat to his vision !!
This certainly puts a more positive spin on this New Year, & new Eurasian Century..
It’s sexy as hell: China to the right of us, Turkey to the left, stuck in the middle with U.
Great article!
“Erdogan seems to be everywhere: what for?”
Turkey’s economy is not financing Erdogan’s mitary adventurism; it is too weak. He has foreign backers.
Here are the top five origins of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Turkey:
https://santandertrade.com/en/portal/establish-overseas/turkey/foreign-investment
Netherlands 20%
UK 15%
Qatar 10%
Azerbaijan 10%*
Germany 8%
*The Azerbaijani FDI was a one-off in 2019 mainly due to the launch of Star Oil Refinery, which is operated by Azerbaijani state-owned oil firm Socar.
It is the EU, not Qatar, who is Erdogan’s main sponsor (scroll down for Pie Chart in this link:
https://www.invest.gov.tr/en/whyturkey/pages/fdi-in-turkey.aspx)
As to what end nobody knows… what the funds are really used for is unclear. The sanctions that EU recently agreed to put in place against Turkey are against individuals only, they are not economic / financial sanctions.
Turkey’s geoposition, location, is critical. Erdogan’s existence is not.
Turkey will never get the investment it needs to recover from Erdogan’s missteps as long as Erdogan is in power.
As in all nations, ultimately, economics determines political power.
Ideology does not fit the Eurasian development model. Certainly, Erdogan’s ideology doesn’t fit or influence positively development in Turkey or any place he has stepped foot. He and his ideology is an impediment in Turkey, Syria, Libya and now Azerbaijian, N-K, and into Central and South Asia.
With no friends among his “partners”, he can only cause more trouble than he is worth.
In recent history, the last 120 years or so, leaders of Erdogan’s type are eliminated.
Positioning himself in the middle of East and West, trying to play both sides, actually jeopardizes his nation. The US could easily divide Turkey into two pieces. This is being talked about and may be planned.
Who would benefit most? Israel.
So watch for signs of real trouble for the Sultan.
There is no good reason for keeping him around.
Thank you, Pepe Escobar. This kind of hard facts is exactly what corroborates my gut feeling that the year which has just begun will be one of increasing setbacks and defeats for imperialism. I wrote earlier that the Axis of Resistance has got leaderships and masses that are very much up to the task. The worse for countries and peoples that don’t get it.
As regards the pesky Sultan, I think his power is in part due to his popularity at home. If he didn’t have a groundswell of popular support behind him, Israel would easily have invented some drivel about ”Holocaust Denial” (or something equally über-horrible) to galvanize the ”International Community” including a more receptive Turkish audience against the Sultan.
Now, Erdogan’s domestic stature won’t last in case Turkey’s warmongering backfires. Think Czar Nicholas II and Imperial Russia in WW1.
Except that Tsar Nicholas II was not a warmonger , so the comparison fails. He helped found the League of Nations and wanted there not to be World War I (only Austria and England were really gung-ho). The Hapsburg Empire is a better example.
Could well be that Nicky wasn’t the worst of the inbred warring Euro-trash Royals at the time. But his fate is still a most valuable lesson to reactionaries playing with fire such as Sultan Erdogan:
At the outbreak of WW1, Nicky was popular and deeply revered among the Russian people — the war united the country just as it did elsewhere in Europe. But the hammerblows sustained by the Russian army at the hands of the Germans and the ever worsening food shortages plus a whole host of other ”issues” made Nicky reviled as no other person in Russia (except for his wife). Think Erdogan’s current mass base is any exception?
Bottom line: Reactionaries who appeal to the people mostly by vulgar braggadocio had better keep up their rate of success — however defined — or else their power evaporates and might even bring very unpleasant death.
How can the United States powerbrokers be so blind as to not see the benefits from what is going on in the eastern hemisphere of the planet with respect to the growth of regional economic trade?
The U.S. has to abandon its failed foreign policy of BBB (Bribing, Bullying and Bombing) towards other nations if it is to survive in the 21st century. Warships do not further commerce and the perceived threats are neutralized with the advanced missile technologies in service today. The voluminous printing of fiat currency only serves the wealthy elitists as they gamble for short-term profits inside the casinos of Wall Street.
America can duplicate the success of what the ECO and other organizations have done in the spirit of common purpose if we can shed the old paradigm of imperialism and self-absorption with wealth accumulation.
How to do that?
1. Elect visionaries who can see beyond the status quo of force projection as a control mechanism. That is the biggest challenge but that has to be the foundation going forward.
2. End the ridiculous economic sanctions that drive business investment away from potential markets of opportunity.
3. Tap into the huge economic markets of Central and South America. Take a page from the ECO, Article XIII of the Treaty of Izmir, which states, “Any State enjoying geographical contiguity with the ECO region and/or sharing the objectives and principles of ECO may apply to become a member of the Organization.”
There is a huge trade imbalance of exports verses imports between China and the U.S. and the Chinese mercantile plan will crush the domestic economy if the leadership in Washington, DC doesn’t wake up and change its foreign policies.
See: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html .
The U.S. has a positive trade with the Americas and it can be expanded by building an interregional railway similar in concept to China’s BRI that runs from Canada through the tip of South America along the eastern and western coastlines where feasible to transport goods that are loaded and unloaded at various points including seaports. We should open a dialogue with the ALAF (Latin American Railway Association) and discuss the possibility of such an endeavor.
See: https://railway-news.com/associations/latin-american-railway-association/ .
If China can do it, so can the U.S. in the western hemisphere but only if we end the stupid mindset of gunboat diplomacy that does nothing but create enmity around the world.
Did you say *elect* visionaries?
Visionaries don’t get elected in the USA, if by chance they rise to power they will be met by the wrong end of the barrel, you just have to look at what is happening now.
“1. Elect visionaries who can see beyond the status quo of force projection as a control mechanism. That is the biggest challenge but that has to be the foundation going forward.”
I admire your optimism, however I am afraid it is not possible. US is controlled by a plethora of nameless, faceless corporations, defense contractors, billionaires. The president and congress, along with the rest of the government are mere puppets. Elections are there to give you illusion of democracy. The real rulers are men in the shadows, hiding behind puppets. As Journalist Chris Hedges said: “You cannot vote against the interests of Goldman Sachs”. This is a sad reality that needs to be acknowledged. And if anyone were to get in with such ideas, the system will destroy him or her. USA is a dictatorship.
“If China can do it, so can the U.S. in the western hemisphere but only if we end the stupid mindset of gunboat diplomacy that does nothing but create enmity around the world.”
For this to happen, there will have to be a mass civil disobedience. Millions of people in the streets day in and day out disrupting the day to day business of government. American people need to wake up and start paying attention to what is happening. Elections do not matter, and there is no democracy. Only a massive movement that can confront and take down Military Industrial Complex will change the US foreign policy. Flushing out the men behind the deep state is what is needed first. Also realization that power brokers, Warmongers and Neocons will not give up their power easily, and will use everything they can to hold on to power. Until and unless, the American people confront their corrupt and rotten system, nothing will change.
I will leave with a quote from a song by Jackson Brown “Lives in the balance” from 1986. Relevant today as it was 35 years ago:
“I wanna know who the men in the shadows are
I wanna hear somebody asking them why?
They can be counted on telling who our enemies are,
But they are never the ones to fight and to die”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iU0IS0Yg19Q
This is the key. Finding out who the men in the shadows are. The real power brokers. Not Trump, not Bush, not Clinton or Obama: these are merely puppets!
These developments are interesting and may foretell much bigger developments. But it’s often good to look past the headlines to the details.
The first link in the article gives the following statistics:
total length = 6543 km
travel time = 11.5 days
capacity = 20 forty foot containers
So the average speed is 23.7 km/hr. The amount of cargo in 20 containers is quite small. To put this in perspective, a modest sized 80 container train moving at only walking speed has the same average capacity.
It seems reasonable to wonder why these limitations exists. Is it due to terrain? Or the condition of the tracks? Or other? And, how many trains can be operated simultaneously? In other words, what is the average capacity of the line?
The key question is how fast and when will this be improved?
Pepe’s comparison was not rail-vs-rail but rail-vs-ship:
“The 6,500 km overland journey should now take 11 days – compared to the roughly 45 days across sealanes”
Yes, that is obvious.
According to Google, the same trip takes 72 hours by road and only 5.5 hours by air. And clearly some cargo can be carried by those methods. So why not make those comparisons, too? Hint: time is not the only relevant dimension.
A more comprehensive examination would be very interesting. Perhaps that’s in the works.
As the sun sets on one chapter it rises on another!
Getting rid of Erdogan would fix a few problems but I worry it might open the door to others. They tried to kill him back in 2015 but, according to an unconfirmed, yet undenied story, Putin personally warned him of immanent danger. Subsequently it was Astana, S400s, and joint patrols with the Russians and such, fence sitting operations, while making nice with the Chinese, Uighur head choppers notwithstanding, (the ‘non aligned’ manourverings that didn’t work out so well with Lukashenko). Still, the Kremlin leadership correctly saw it’s opportunity and took it with desirable results on the whole. On the whole.
Russia’s gain was Nato’s loss. My expectation is that the new admin. will want Turkey back and finishing off the Sultan might well lead to the rehabilitation of the Gulenists. If that happens then the Westerners will be back in control. This would constitute a real coup not just in Turkey but might also lead to a reactivation of the substantial Gulenist educated management class in Central Asia. This is likely why Gullen is kept on ice. Erdogan has repeatedly tried to get Langley to hand him over but they won’t. I’m sure Erdogan has drawn the appropriate inference. As for breaking Turkey in half by getting strongly behind the Kurds, this, obviously, would make the Israeli’s as happy as Larry but some local unhappiness is also to be expected. Neither the Turkish Islamists nor the secular nationalists are on board with the break up of their country by the West. Such a move would, one would think, justify burying the hatchet with Assad, allying with the Iranians and Iraqis against the Kurds, against the only soldiers that are likely to fight for yet another one of these treacherous gambits. Such an alliance would make the Israelis unhappy, or worse.
If I were advising the Prince of Darkness on all this I’d urge His Satanic Majesty to get rid of Erdogan, but as for the Kurds, just more of the same, enough support to keep them fighting but nothing more. The main thing is to get Turkey back from the Eurasians. The real thrust of the policy would be to restore friendly Turkish relations with Israel, and get the Europeans to provide the back up muscle for Israel and the Middle Eastern client states. Keep both the jihadi’s and the administrative class Gulenists as the weapons against Russia they were basically intended to be. With Europe directly backing Israel and actively pursuing a Nato agenda throughout the Middle East this would allow the Americans to regroup their main forces in the Pacific. That’s how things look from the perspective of this speculative armchair general. Getting rid of Erdogan might not work out for the best. Like the last time, they’ll have somebody lined up to take over when the opening comes up. Before concluding I hasten to add here that while I believe that this may well be the plan I rather doubt that it will be any more successful than anything else these folks do. The Europeans are even worse than the Americans. But that won’t stop them. To reiterate the main point: if Erdogan goes the door might well open to the Langley managed Gulenists not just in Turkey but as well in the Central Asian Stans. These people remain their highest value assets along with the jihadis. What they failed to do in Belorussia they’ll likely try in the Stans if only because that’s how they operate. Any thoughts/criticisms?
A very welcome article to start the 2021 year.
The capital of Pakistan, Islamabad has its own charm with broad roads, greenery and planned sectors. A grand city that was built in 1960, this then replaced Karachi as the capital of Pakistan. To the north of Islamabad, the beautiful Margalla Hills are present, with lakes and rivers throughout. Apart from beauty of Islamabad there are many big shopping malls in Islamabad.
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