Incentives: Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin possible moves – Donbass crisis.

By David Sant for the Saker Blog

Several analysts have written articles about how Russia is likely to respond in the theater to an offensive by Ukraine to restart the Donbass War. My purpose in this article is to look at the psychology and incentives of Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin and the possible moves that each of them may make in response to the Donbass crisis.

The Nature of the Dispute

It is fairly well established that two primary motives seem to be driving the Atlanticist pressure on Russia and continuing eastward expansion of NATO. The larger issue is that Russia, Iran, and China seem to be increasingly resistant to the rule of the Atlanticist monopolar hegemony enforced by the US Military and NATO. As someone recently said, the American empire is a currency empire sustained by forcing all energy transactions to be priced in US Dollars, and controlling energy transit points. By moving away from using USD for oil and gas transactions, Russia, China, and Iran pose a mortal threat to the empire.

The secondary issue, the one driving the timing, is control of oil and gas pipelines. In short the USA wants Europe to use American-controlled gas and oil, which means Saudi and Qatari oil, and American LNG. They want to create pipelines and delivery routes for American-controlled energy, and close or prevent delivery routes for Russian energy. The three current flashpoints are Syria, Ukraine, and the route of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, all three of which are current or potential pipeline routes.

Several years ago the US successfully pressured Bulgaria into cancelling the South Stream Pipeline through the Black Sea. However, US sanctions have been unable to deter Germany from allowing the Russians to complete the Nord Stream 2.

With the completion of the project only a few months away, the US seems determined to stop it at any cost. This appears to be the motive behind instigating the Ukrainian government to invade Donbass. If Russia defends Donbass, she will be demonized in the Western press, and this will be used to pressure Germany to cancel Nord Stream 2. From the American perspective, getting the Ukrainians to fight the Russians weakens both at no political cost to the US.

It is my opinion that the Biden Administration is making a major miscalculation by continuing this approach. For the past seven years, Russia has absorbed round after round of sanctions and provocations by the US government in Ukraine and Syria. The Biden regime seems to assume that if they instigate a war in Donbass now, that Russia will continue as they have before, to absorb the blow without striking back. I suggest that this time it will be different.

The History and Psychology of Biden and Putin

Vladimir Putin was handpicked by the Western handlers to replace Boris Yeltsin in 1999, largely because he was known to be reliable. However, Putin surprised those who appointed him by turning against the oligarchs and reigning in the chaos that was dismembering Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin enforced the law and cracked down on corruption, including corruption by the Western interests that put him in power.

Displeased by this turn of events, the West, led by Bill Browder, has spent the past fifteen years demonizing Putin. For example, when Russia granted asylum to Edward Snowden in 2013, multiple US politicians used scripted talking points calling Mr. Putin “a schoolyard bully.” That analogy was rather inept, as Russia did not invite Snowden, but rather got stuck with him, as his passport was cancelled while in transit, making it impossible for him to board his flight out of Russia. Putin actually said that as a former intelligence officer himself, he did not view Snowden’s leak of classified information in a positive light.

The problem with demonizing one’s opponent is that it can lead to strategic errors if you make the mistake of believing your own propaganda. If we look at Mr. Putin’s past behavior we see four consistent characteristics.

First, he follows the rules. Whether it is the START treaty, the chemical weapons accord, or the Minsk Agreements, the Putin regime has consistently tried to keep the old treaties alive and to follow agreed upon UN procedures for conflict resolution.

Second, when Mr. Putin has taken steps to oppose the Atlanticist agenda, he has done so in a way that allowed his opponents to save face. When the US was preparing to invade Syria in 2013, Putin persuaded Assad to agree to eliminate his chemical weapon stockpile. This pulled the rug out from under the US invasion, but it did not make the US look bad.

When Russia entered Syria to fight ISIS, they did not publicly expose the fact that the US and Israel were the primary backers of ISIS. Putin went along with the ruse and said, if America is fighting ISIS we will fight ISIS too, and did so legally at the invitation of Syria. Russia’s work allowed Trump to take credit for defeating ISIS, even though it completely ruined eight years of CIA efforts to train and arm those terrorists.

Third, Mr. Putin keeps his word. When he draws a red line, he enforces it. He speaks quietly but it is wise to listen carefully to what he says. We have seen this in the way that Russia dealt with terrorist groups that agreed to deconfliction versus those that did not, as well as the ones that agreed and then went against it.

And, lastly, when all else has failed and the other party crosses the red line anyway, Putin punches fast, hard, and unexpectedly, and often in a different theater than where the provocation has occurred. We saw this when Russia destroyed the oil smuggling network that the US and Turkey had set up in Northeastern Syria. We saw it again when Russia saved Mr. Erdogan from a US-backed coup only thirty minutes before he probably would have been captured.

Joe Biden

Joe Biden loved to tell the story on the campaign trail about his interaction with a black gangster named “Corn Pop” when he was a lifeguard in college. They almost had a fight but Biden brought a chain with him, and they later became friends. The fact that he even tells this tale signals that Biden has no real experience against a serious enemy. Men with street credibility don’t need to tell stories. They are known and respected.

The reality of Biden’s career is that he has played second fiddle to stronger leaders and only appears to have gotten the presidential nomination because it was his turn and he was deemed to be controllable by his handlers. Biden obtained the presidency through a fraud seen so openly that he has one of the lowest presidential approval ratings in history.

Biden and Putin met for the first time alone in 2011 for talks in Russia. According to Mike McCormick, who was Biden’s stenographer, Biden was halfway through his talk when suddenly the microphone, cameras, and lights were turned off and Putin and all of the media walked out leaving Biden humiliated. Something similar happened to Biden in China a few months later.

This is probably what Biden was referring to when he recently said that Putin was “a killer” with “no soul.” That interaction tells us exactly what Putin thinks of Biden. He considers him to be a weakling with no substance.

Biden’s team is stacked with Russophobes who are motivated by the desire to finish what they began in Ukraine under Obama. They believe they can successfully use information war and dirty tricks to isolate Russia from Europe and control all the energy conduits. Whether due to hubris or ignorance, they do not believe Russia would dare to strike back at the real instigator of the war in Ukraine.

Biden’s response to a Russian strike would probably be a plaintive high pitched, “c’mon man!” However, if Kamala Harris is making the decisions the risk of escalating to a nuclear response is much higher. The problem is that both Biden and Harris were picked and installed by a “power behind the throne,” so it is unclear exactly who would be making the decision of how to respond.

The Imminent Danger of the Current Imbroglio

There is no doubt that the US intends to create a war in Ukraine before the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline can be finished. This will happen within months if not weeks. It is also clear that Zelensky is being placed under tremendous pressure to force Russia into defending Donbass.

Russia has drawn a red line around Donbass. Ukraine had agreed to a peaceful resolution through the Minsk Accords. But with US encouragement, Kiev violated everything they agreed to, making it now politically impossible to re-integrate Donbass into Ukraine.

If Zelensky invades Donbass, then not just Ukraine, but the USA and NATO will be viewed by Russia as having crossed an inviolable red line. Yes, Russia will be forced to defend Donbass, because Putin will not allow Russians to be subjected to genocide. Russia does not want to fight Ukrainians, whom despite the jokes, they view as their Russian brothers. They are frustrated and angry that the USA has forced them into this position.

For this reason, I believe that Mr. Putin will do something that the Biden regime is not expecting with similar psychological impact to the sudden turning off of the lights and cameras. He will find a way to inflict debilitating pain on the decision makers who have forced Russia into intervening in Ukraine.

In addition to defending Donbass, Russia may strike the USA in a different theater. But they will do so in a way that cannot be confused with a nuclear attack. Unlike the previous chess moves that allowed the US leadership to save face, this one will neutralize and publicly humiliate the USA and the Biden regime as a paper tiger.

The Narrow Window of Technological Supremacy

While the US was busy invading third world countries as part of the War on Terror, Russia was quietly developing their defense technologies. They have now achieved technological supremacy over the USA in three areas: air and missile defenses, hypersonic missiles, and electronic countermeasures (ECM).

In the area of air defenses the Russian S-400 is an extremely capable platform which the West has very little experience fighting against. Russia has the capability to impose a no fly zone within about 500 kilometers of its S-400 batteries, of which there are several from Crimea to Kaliningrad. Israel’s use of the F-35 to bomb Syria has given the Russians live data on NATO’s most advanced stealth fighter.

The S-500 space defense system is scheduled to enter service in 2021. Since the S-500 can defend against ICBMs it may affect the balance of power of mutual assured destruction (MAD).

The Zircon and Khinzal hypersonic missiles are currently in service and are the most effective anti-ship weapons in the Russian arsenal that we know of. Their standoff range enables strikes on enemy ships from 500 to 2,000 kilometers. This means that Russia has the ability to strike ships in the Mediteranean and North Sea using assets based on Russian soil, not even counting the assets based in Latakia, Syria. NATO forces currently have no defense against hypersonic missiles.

Russian ECM capabilities have been somewhat exaggerated by news stories about the 2014 encounter with the USS Donald Cook. The Donald Cook was allegedly shut down by ECM attack while an SU-24 overflew the vessel. However, more accurate sources noted that any ECM attack, if there even was one, would have been executed using ground-based equipment, not the Su-24 fighter. If this attack really happened, the US Navy has presumably hardened its vessels against ECM in the seven years since.

We do know that Russian ECM systems in Syria were able to disable the vast majority of Tomahawk Missiles fired at Syria in April 2017. Other than aircraft carriers, the primary American method of projecting power is Arleigh-Burke class destroyers such as the USS Donald Cook which carry about 50 Tomahawk missiles each. The 2017 exercise in Syria probably indicates that Russia is able to jam volleys of Tomahawk missiles with better than 90% success. The remaining 10% of the subsonic Tomahawks can be easily shot down by anti-aircraft batteries.

The question is whether the US Navy has found a way to harden the Tomahawk missiles against Russian ECM since 2017. If not, then given the much smaller size and number of missiles that can be carried by Navy attack aircraft, the US Navy’s primary weapon for ground attack has no teeth against Russian targets. Of course in any conflict, the first target of NATO’s “wild weasel” aircraft will be SAM radars and ECM equipment.

Conclusion – Biden has Created Strong Incentives for Russia to Strike First

The US is spending billions to catch up technologically, and the window of Russian supremacy may only last for two or three years at most. Russia can be expected to reach the peak technological advantage over NATO in late 2021 after the S-500 system has been fully deployed. However, the Donbass crisis may force Russia to act sooner than they are comfortable.

If Russia were to use the window of supremacy to attempt a debilitating strike on the US military the US Navy is the most likely target. Ships are the most exposed, are not located inside another country’s borders, and are also the primary means of projecting US power. However, I would not rule out a non-missile attack on DC. For example, there are many ways that the US power grid could be turned off without using missiles. The ensuing domestic chaos might prevent the US from responding.

This is a very dangerous situation for the world because it could easily escalate to World War III or nuclear war, depending on the Biden Administration’s reaction. Part of the problem is that it is not clear who is really in charge of the Whitehouse. A nuclear response to a devastating conventional weapons defeat would be a disaster for both sides.

Russia will only strike the USA if they believe they have no other choice. What they have learned from seven years of sanctions, attempted coups, fake poisonings, and other provocations is that the US will continue this behavior for as long as Russia continues to accept it, or until Russia is broken and conquered. In short, Biden’s team may have finally convinced Russia that they have no other choice.

President Biden has handed Putin the justification for a first strike by openly stating his intention to conduct a cyber attack on Russia “soon.” That is a public declaration of war. The fact that the Russian ambassador was recalled from Washington and has not been sent back should be a wakeup call to America that DC itself is on the potential target list.

For these reasons I believe that there is a high probability that Russia will strike first before NATO can fully put in place the forces for planned exercises for this Summer. The strike will probably be non-nuclear, focused against US forces only, and its purpose will be to delegitimize the US power in the eyes of the junior members of NATO, and to weaken or cripple the US ability to project power.

If China and Iran see Russia strike the US military, it would not be surprising if they also pile on using their own hypersonic missiles to destroy US Navy assets in the Persian Gulf and South China Sea.

The Biden regime’s underestimation of Russia and failure to heed Putin’s warnings have created conditions which make possible a sudden and humiliating defeat of the US Navy, which could effectively end the US ability to project power overseas.

However, wars are rarely short, and victories rarely decisive. For this reason it would be better for all parties to de-escalate the conflict immediately. Unfortunately, the Biden regime is the only one in a position to do that, and they have shown no intention of doing so.

White Whale on April 12, 2021 · at 4:37 am EST/EDT

Here is an April 2014 account on the Dances With Bears blog of John Helmer, Moscow based Australian journalist.

It’s a long article.
It has credible sources for some of the assertions.
IMHO Helmer is a reasonable-ish journalist. He is not a particularly elegant writer. His familiarity with Russia affords him some credibility. IMHO. I’d rate him 6/10- 7/10 depending on the topic.

He certainly is certainly persuaded the Donald Cook incident occurred.

Gunboat Diplomacy Round 2 — USS Donald Cook Gives Odessa A Miss, Sails Southeast

Some extracts:

On Thursday President Vladimir Putin described NATO missile batteries aimed at Russia’s Black Sea coastline as threatening the nuclear defences of southwestern Russia.
It was the first time the president or Russian defence officials have put Crimea into Russian strategic survival doctrine. US Navy deployment in the Black Sea of ships armed with Aegis missiles is one of the concrete threats Putin was referring to.
This has made the current Black Sea cruise of the USS Donald Cook, an Aegis-armed destroyer, of special importance. It is the reason a Russian military aircraft buzzed the Cook as it steamed towards Constanta port, in Romania.

It is also the reason why, as Putin was speaking in Moscow, the Cook pulled away from the Constanta dock, setting a course to the southeast from Constanta towards Georgia and Turkey, and not a northward course towards Odessa.

US Navy deployments inside the Black Sea are now consecutive, one vessel arriving as another leaves, since February 2, {2014}when the USS Mount Whitney passed through the Bosphorus, the Turkish straits, guarded by the frigate, the USS Taylor.
The Mount Whitney is a floating headquarters for NATO strike forces aimed at Russia from Romania to Hungary and Poland.
It had sailed into the Georgian port of Poti in September of 2008 as Russian air, ground and naval forces surrounded the port.
The BBC reported the mission as the delivery of humanitarian aid. In July of 2011 the Mount Whitney was off the Libyan coast to coordinate US and NATO operations to overthrow Muammar Qaddafi.
The Mount Whitney is also a signals intelligence station for listening in on Russian command communications.

The story of the Mount Whitney’s cruise — off the port of Sochi and purportedly to assist Russian security for the Olympic Games — was told here. (
Link in Helmer article).
According to European military observers, the American idea was to monitor how far Putin’s attention was distracted by the Olympics, while the US worked to transform the situation in Kiev, overthrowing the government of President Victor Yanukovich, if it could.
Putin was distracted, the Europeans believe, and so he was taken by surprise by the February 21 coup in Kiev.
…………
Extract:
Did the Mount Whitney operation allow the Americans to predict in February what Putin has admitted to in April – that he was taken by surprise by the coup against Yanukovich, and by what happened next in Crimea?
Did the Obama Administration believe their strike hand was free while Putin’s eye was off the ball?
“This had not been pre-planned or prepared,” Putin said in his television presentation last week. (2014)
“It was done on the spot, and we had to play it by ear based on the situation and the demands at hand.”
Was Washington as surprised by Putin’s Crimean move as Putin had been by Obama’s Kiev move?
…………
Extract:
…This is a hint that until February 22 Putin hadn’t accepted the black scenarios he had received from the intelligence agencies……… Maybe he even believed Obama’s telephone call on February 21, promising to stick to the agreement signed that day between Yanukovich and the European Union (EU) foreign ministers.…………

But once Yanukovich had been ousted over the following night and day, and the Kremlin accepted there was no going back for him, Putin adopted a long-prepared plan of action. In this plan, Crimea was a direct Russian security interest in a way the rest of eastern Ukraine is not. “We also followed certain logic: If we don’t do anything, Ukraine will be drawn into NATO sometime in the future. We’ll be told: ‘This doesn’t concern you,’ and NATO ships will dock in Sevastopol, the city of Russia’s naval glory.”
“But it isn’t even the emotional side of the issue. The point is that Crimea protrudes into the Black Sea, being in its centre, as it were. However, in military terms, it doesn’t have the importance it used to have in the 18th and 19th centuries – I’m referring to modern strike forces, including coastal ones. But if NATO troops walk in, they will immediately deploy these forces there. Such a move would be geopolitically sensitive for us because, in this case, Russia would be practically ousted from the Black Sea area. We’d be left with just a small coastline of 450 or 600km, and that’s it!”
……………

Extract:
Putin continued: “In this way, Russia may be really ousted from this region that is extremely important for us… This is a serious thing. So we shouldn’t fear anything but we must consider these circumstances and react accordingly.
As I’ve just said, the same is happening with our talks on the deployment of US missile defence elements.
This is not a defensive system, but part of the offensive potential deployed far away from home.
Again we’re being told: ‘This is not against you.’
…………
Extract:
For the first time Putin is talking in public, in detail, and at length in the language of military defence and geostrategic security.
He is also talking directly at the US.
“Look at what they did with Yugoslavia: they cut it into small pieces and are now manipulating everything that can be manipulated there, which is almost anything.
“Apparently, someone would like to do the same with us, and if you look at what’s happening, you’ll be able to answer your own question about who is doing what.”
This is the frame of mind in which the movement of the USS Donald Cook into the Black Sea, starting on April 10, and heading north, was interpreted in Moscow.
…………
Extract:
……… as the USS Donald Cook was sailing on Saturday, April 12.
On that day two Russian Sukhoi-24 attack aircraft, as well as a Black Sea fleet warship, were shadowing the Cook, when one of the planes made what the Pentagon later claimed to have been 12 low-altitude passes at the Cook.
According to the US Navy account, the Russian aircraft flew within a thousand yards of the Cook and as low as 500 feet.
At the time both Su-24 and destroyer were in international waters. From the Cook the Russian aircraft was visually confirmed to be unarmed.(Link in Helmer).

The Pentagon spokesman declared: “This provocative and unprofessional Russian action is inconsistent with international protocols and previous agreements on the professional interaction between our militaries.”
Note that the incident occurred on the Saturday, but no Pentagon-release report appeared until the following Monday, US time.
The US reports, all based on the same Pentagon release, mix the days so that even in a single press report, the incident has been made to appear to have occurred on Monday, but also two days earlier.
This Washington newspaper version makes the US F-15s (armed) above the Cook appear to be the Russian Su-24s (unarmed).(Helmer link)
For the US and European press reporting the incident, the message was that the Russians were threatening a routine American naval operation in international waters.
For the Russian side, the buzzing was intended as a warning that nothing an Aegis-armed missile battery does within range of Russia can be routine at any time. In the context of the Ukraine crisis, the Russian and Ukrainian media also reported, the Cook was intending to demonstrate this force capability by making a portcall at Odessa.
…………
Extract:
A more elaborate version of the same warning was broadcast by Russia Today Television (RT) on April 10, along with film footage of the Cook moving through the Bosphorus.
…………

Extract:
If the Su-24 buzzing the Cook on April 12 had dropped leaflets with a reprint of Article XIV, the message could not have been clearer.
It didn’t, so Putin did: “Our American partners have turned down our proposal to sign even some trifling legal paper that would say that these systems are not directed against us.
……………

Extract:
The US destroyer survived the buzzing, and made port at Constanta on April 14 (image above). The welcoming ceremony was led by the Romanian President, Traian Basescu.
In Basescu’s statement, he said the Cook would be replaced by a US frigate “ensuring thus a continuous presence in the area and increase interoperability between the Romanian and the American fleet.”
Constanta port sources say the warship left the port in the afternoon of April 17.
They said they did not know what direction it was taking.
Twenty-four hours later a US Navy source confirmed the vessel was under way in the Black Sea.
Apparently, it did not head north to Odessa. Nor did it sail south to Bulgaria, or to the Bosphorus.
The US Navy does not disclose future ship portcalls.
As US Vice President Joe Biden is scheduled to land in Kiev on April 21, the Cook remains in the Black Sea, location undisclosed by the US Navy.
For refueling it is obliged to make port again by Thursday, April 24.

Helmers 2014 seems confident the buzzing happened.
The article does not make any reference to shutting down the Cook’s electronics. But as others have observed. Would the Russians buzzed it if they were not sure it was disabled?

116 Comments

Aur on April 11, 2021 · at 9:56 am EST/EDT

Why can Russia or other resistant group kill the war plotters bill bowder and other English spies and war mongers. It would be cheaper to kill English spies and English spy journalists than put thousands in war as happened in Syria, Iraq or Libya.
- Rhys Jaggar on April 11, 2021 · at 3:33 pm EST/EDT
  
  Ah, but English spies are superior, they outsource the actual killings to untermenschen. It’s not the planning and the mantras that are evil, it’s just that act of killing people. Goering and Himmler were decent souls after all. It was just those evil CC Kommandants that were the bad apples…
  
  You’d do better to target the English Public School system, which is given charitable status but acts as an enormous recruiting ground for UK spies. You know, go and bump off a few teachers and head teachers at schools known to be security service recruitment grounds. At least a dozen of them exist….
  
  Then you could target Oxford University, Cambridge University, ICSM, UCL, the LSE, Manchester 1824, Durham, Edinburgh and St Andrews Universities. They are all choc a bloc full of spies and stool pigeons, ex MI6 executives and undergraduates going through the MI5/6 recruitment process.
  
  Then you can target the front corporations that are full of killers and spies but call themselves ‘consultants’, ‘bankers’ or ‘NGO executives’. Take a look at who was first up with suggestions of ‘how to regenerate Iraq’ after the Coalition of the Willing bombed it to smithereens. Absolutely first class list of organised crime front companies who masquerade as ‘recruiters of the highest talent’. Highest technical talent, maybe, but always duped into signing up for something they can’t ever get out of again. People with real world on the ground experience see through the charade during interview programmes – having military fighting experience in Bosnia teaches you less about the real world than being brainwashed at Oxford aged 21, after all….
  
  The UK is a corrupt and rotten edifice from top to bottom and you can’t climb the greasy pole without embracing that evil lock, stock and barrel. Especially not if you want to be a London Medical Consultant….
Disaffected on April 11, 2021 · at 10:08 am EST/EDT

Not to be underestimated at all, such a strike would also send the currently euphoric stock markets into an utter tailspin, and with it, all of those pension funds so many US boomers are relying on for their imminent or current retirements. That’s where most of what’s left of the US socioeconomic confidence comes from these days, so undermining that greatly diminishes support for DC’s various and sundry militaristic shenanigans throughout the world. The neo-libs/cons in charge are going to seriously overcook their “mandate” and deeply regret it. Idiots!
- Yowzah on April 11, 2021 · at 5:24 pm EST/EDT
  
  I’ve been watching them build a tower of turds for decades. Always higher, teetering, swaying with the wind yet they rolled more to the top at every opportunity. Wondered if it was ever gonna flop, honestly, but you know that nothing holds forever. We best cover our heads.
  
  I didn’t write post-apocalyptic fiction because I reckoned an apocalypse wasn’t on the way.
Bankotsu on April 11, 2021 · at 10:14 am EST/EDT

I think Russia should only invade entire Ukraine only after Ukraine makes the first open aggression against Russia or Donbass.

All of Ukraine must be occupied by Russian military except for Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Lviv Oblast and Zakarpatska Oblast. These three provinces will be the future rump Galicia state.

The rest of Ukraine will be annexed into Russia in due time.

There is no reason for Russia NOT to invade and occupy entire Ukraine.

U.S. invaded and occupied Afghanistan and Iraq from thousands of miles away.

There is no excuse at all for Russia to keep Ukraine unoccupied. That will be a disgrace.
- Bosnian Croat on April 11, 2021 · at 11:13 am EST/EDT
  
  Too huge burden for Russian economy. Russia is still not economically strong enough to take over devastated Ukraine which is huge country.
  Maybe in 10 to 15 years … if everything is to be OK.
- The Babushka on April 11, 2021 · at 1:40 pm EST/EDT
  
  Why would you take to your breast a nest of snakes?! Just defang them, and let them sort it out between themselves.
  - BosnaJeSrpska on April 11, 2021 · at 4:09 pm EST/EDT
    
    No, my friend. You take friendly Russian speaking 3/4 of Border Land aka Ukraine. Economy is easy to rebuild, it would be agriculture anyway. And then you let snakes go west to Galicia…
    You take back every m2 of your land, because if it’s not in your hands then it’s in your enemy’s hands!
    That is what needs to be done this time and i hope it will be.
    So my catholic-convert-Serb brother, aka Bosnian Croat, you also don’t worry to much..he he he..!
    - rayy on April 12, 2021 · at 10:49 am EST/EDT
      
      Lol funny, i was just about to write the same thing, there is no ethnic croat east of Split in Dalmatia or Hercegovina, but that is beside the point. The point is, huge parts of Ukraine (80+%) are agricultural, you need money only for infrastructure
- carpatho-russian on April 12, 2021 · at 10:58 am EST/EDT
  
  I would strongly disagree about Zakarpatska Oblast, since the people there have never wanted to be re-named separatist Ukrainians or be within the Ukraine, instead dreaming for centuries of being.part of Russia. They (my relatives and ancestors) have a thousand years of Russian consciousness, back when Kiey (not KYYYv or such nonsense). was the center of the Rus’ principalities.
  Also, the ONLY reason that Galicia is considered a hotbed of so-called “Ukrainian” (“borderlanders”) nationality is that the Austro-Hungarian Empire controlled it for centuries and were able to finance and direct efforts to invent a new nationality to try to destroy the unity of the Russian ethnos. All pro-Russian sympathies were suppressed in favor of the pet “Ukraininan” movement. There were treason trials in 1882 against those villagers who would dare to re-join the Russian Orthodox Church, away from the official enforced Roman Catholicism of the Hapsburgs, imposed by force in 1596. There were mass killings of tens of thousands of Carpatho-Russian civilians in Galicia when World War I broke out. And the very first concentration camps in Europe (such as Talerhof and Terezin) were the ones set up by the Austrian government in 1914-1917, holding additional tens of thousands who refused to adopt Ukrainian nationality but insisted on Russian.
White Whale on April 11, 2021 · at 10:22 am EST/EDT

In the Baltic Sea Russian SU-24 jets celebrate anniversary of paralyzing the USS Donald Cook in the Black Sea, by Scott
28309 Views April 14, 2016 43 Comments

/in-the-baltic-sea-russian-su-24-jets-celebrate-anniversary-of-paralyzing-the-uss-donald-cook-in-the-black-sea-by-scott/

In April 12th, 2014 in the Black Sea, the Russian Sukhoi Su -24 with the newest jamming complex paralyzed the most modern American combat management system “Aegis” installed on the destroyer “USS Donald Cook.”
April 12, 2015 one-year: Russian fighter Su-24 vs US Destroyer USS Donald Cook (2014)

Published on Apr 10, 2015
Videos (Film Archive Su-24) 1967-1970 1972-2001 years.
Russian fighter jet disables US missile destroyer using electronic warfare weapon.
Russian Sukhoi Su-24 with the newest jamming complex paralyzed in the Black Sea the most modern American combat management system “Aegis” installed on the destroyer “USS Donald Cook”. Pavel Zolotarev, Deputy Director, Institute of USA and Canada, shares details about this version which is being actively discussed in the Russian media and by bloggers.
The Russian Air Force Khibiny is an advanced aircraft-mounted electronic warfare (EW) system capable of jamming state-of-the-art radar-based weapon-systems…
The US military is in shock! Donald Cook and Su 24

Has the author considered The Saker blog as a source for the Donald Cook humiliation?
- White Whale on April 11, 2021 · at 10:56 am EST/EDT
  
  Video embedded in Saker blog | Russian military speaking about the Donald Cook incident.
  https://youtube.com/watch?v=DsLYpF12Xsg
  
  Type this into search engine
  The US military is in shock! Donald Cook and Su 24
  
  In Russian
  https://ok.ru/video/5133174088?_cl.id=undefined&_clickLog=%5B%7B%22target%22%3A%22reactedList%22%7D%5D#cmntMsg
  - White Whale on April 11, 2021 · at 11:05 am EST/EDT
    
    This site has latest video and images of flight data, military equipment movement and naval exercises.
    Worth a daily look up IMHO
    
    Twitter
    The Intel Crab
    @IntelCrab
  - emersonreturn on April 11, 2021 · at 11:38 am EST/EDT
    
    my dream: putin shuts down all ships, planes, command centres, the whole biden team sitting near or on the black sea & ukraine just like the 2011 cameras, lights, mics…all goes black. perfect way to humiliate & tell the world what hologram biden & america are.
- Leo on April 11, 2021 · at 11:14 am EST/EDT
  
  White Whale
  The electronics attack against the USS Donald Cook by an SU-24 using the Khirbiny jamming system did happen. In fact it was first reported by German websites, followed by others. The electronics on the Cook were disabled, including the Aegis system, after which the SU-24 flew 12 times over the Cook, which turned around and fled to Romania, where 27 sailors deserted.
  
  The electronics on the Cook were, since 2014, probably improved by the US Navy. However, it goes without saying that the same applies to the Russian Khirbiny system.
  - Blackeyes on April 11, 2021 · at 7:08 pm EST/EDT
    
    IMO, the USS “Cook” had not been disabled by the Russian SU-24 as they say flying over the naval vessel.
    
    It was the Russian Coastal “Electronic Warfare” devices that made her lying dead in the water.
    This was a very strong and stark sign from Moscow to Washington DC, their games were becoming quite dangerous for US INC. Better to stop it.
  - White Whale on April 11, 2021 · at 7:31 pm EST/EDT
    
    Leo
    I also know the event happened.
    I was responding to this guest author who wrote:
    
    Quite:
    Russian ECM capabilities have been somewhat exaggerated by news stories about the 2014 encounter with the USS Donald Cook.
    > No. They haven’t.
    The Donald Cook was allegedly shut down by ECM attack while an SU-24 overflew the vessel.
    >Allegedly. Nope.
    “However, more accurate sources
    > what sources????
    “noted that any ECM attack, if there even was one,
    >A simple search on Saker blog would have yielded articles which include real time video of the event.
    “Would have been executed using ground-based equipment, not the Su-24 fighter.
    >The author is wrong. He is just inventing “facts”.
    If this attack really happened,
    >Author did not undertake even modicum of research as I found multiple YouTube showing it happening.
    the US Navy has presumably hardened its vessels against ECM in the seven years since.
    >presumably.
    
    Maybe the mod can link the author to the Saker articles.
    
    Once an author has demonstrated a “fail” as spectacular as this, I am then cautious about anything else he writes.
    - David Sant on April 11, 2021 · at 9:04 pm EST/EDT
      
      White Whale, the original text mentioned the 2014 Donald Cook incident as fact. However, when I tried to verify it, I was not able to do so. I discussed it with the Saker before choosing the final wording.
      
      The story may be true, particularly if it was leaked by Russian intelligence. There is no way that the US Navy would have reported this AEGIS failure to the media, and the idea that 27 sailors resigned or deserted at port is also questionable. They all would have been in lockdown and being interviewed by Navy investigators to find out what happened. There is no way that the facts as reported came from the US Navy.
      
      Therefore the story had to come from Russian military intelligence. It could be true, or it could be disinformation. The only way Russian military could know what happened inside the ship would be if they had a spy on board, or they intercepted encrypted radio transmissions from the vessel, or if they intercepted Navy personnel communications on social media and email to family members.
      
      Since Russian military intelligence does not answer phone calls, I have no way to confirm it, so I took the cautious approach. The danger of taking an unconfirmed story as fact when performing this kind of analysis is that it may lead to a false assessment of the actual Russian capabilities. My conclusions were that the Afghanistan incident demonstrated ECM capabilities, and that since the majority of the US Navy’s ground attack weapons are Tomahawk missiles, we can be fairly confident that the US Navy’s attack power against Russian land targets is greatly reduced.
      
      I do not claim to have any secret sources. My analysis was based on publicly available information only.
- David Sant on April 11, 2021 · at 8:42 pm EST/EDT
  
  I was unable to confirm the Donald Cook story. Though it was a great story, I remain skeptical for several reasons. If the Russians had this ability then demonstrating it on the Donald Cook would only alert the US to begin looking for ways to harden their systems. The stories claiming it happened cited a Russian jamming device which cannot be deployed on the Su-24. The author did not want to be guilty of echo chamber analysis which encourages either side to be overconfident in their capabilities. If you can provide evidence that the story is definitely true, I would consider changing my opinion.
  - Ann Watson on April 11, 2021 · at 10:27 pm EST/EDT
    
    very wise analysis I think. It seems to me completely right that – why would Russia expose their dream war machine (EFJamming device) in simple routine fly over ?
  - White Whale on April 12, 2021 · at 4:37 am EST/EDT
    
    Here is an April 2014 account on the Dances With Bears blog of John Helmer, Moscow based Australian journalist.
    
    It’s a long article.
    It has credible sources for some of the assertions.
    IMHO Helmer is a reasonable-ish journalist. He is not a particularly elegant writer. His familiarity with Russia affords him some credibility. IMHO. I’d rate him 6/10- 7/10 depending on the topic.
    
    He certainly is certainly persuaded the Donald Cook incident occurred.
    
    Gunboat Diplomacy Round 2 — USS Donald Cook Gives Odessa A Miss, Sails Southeast
    
    Some extracts:
    
    On Thursday President Vladimir Putin described NATO missile batteries aimed at Russia’s Black Sea coastline as threatening the nuclear defences of southwestern Russia.
    It was the first time the president or Russian defence officials have put Crimea into Russian strategic survival doctrine. US Navy deployment in the Black Sea of ships armed with Aegis missiles is one of the concrete threats Putin was referring to.
    This has made the current Black Sea cruise of the USS Donald Cook, an Aegis-armed destroyer, of special importance. It is the reason a Russian military aircraft buzzed the Cook as it steamed towards Constanta port, in Romania.
    
    It is also the reason why, as Putin was speaking in Moscow, the Cook pulled away from the Constanta dock, setting a course to the southeast from Constanta towards Georgia and Turkey, and not a northward course towards Odessa.
    
    US Navy deployments inside the Black Sea are now consecutive, one vessel arriving as another leaves, since February 2, {2014}when the USS Mount Whitney passed through the Bosphorus, the Turkish straits, guarded by the frigate, the USS Taylor.
    The Mount Whitney is a floating headquarters for NATO strike forces aimed at Russia from Romania to Hungary and Poland.
    It had sailed into the Georgian port of Poti in September of 2008 as Russian air, ground and naval forces surrounded the port.
    The BBC reported the mission as the delivery of humanitarian aid. In July of 2011 the Mount Whitney was off the Libyan coast to coordinate US and NATO operations to overthrow Muammar Qaddafi.
    The Mount Whitney is also a signals intelligence station for listening in on Russian command communications.
    
    The story of the Mount Whitney’s cruise — off the port of Sochi and purportedly to assist Russian security for the Olympic Games — was told here. (
    Link in Helmer article).
    According to European military observers, the American idea was to monitor how far Putin’s attention was distracted by the Olympics, while the US worked to transform the situation in Kiev, overthrowing the government of President Victor Yanukovich, if it could.
    Putin was distracted, the Europeans believe, and so he was taken by surprise by the February 21 coup in Kiev.
    …………
    Extract:
    Did the Mount Whitney operation allow the Americans to predict in February what Putin has admitted to in April – that he was taken by surprise by the coup against Yanukovich, and by what happened next in Crimea?
    Did the Obama Administration believe their strike hand was free while Putin’s eye was off the ball?
    “This had not been pre-planned or prepared,” Putin said in his television presentation last week. (2014)
    “It was done on the spot, and we had to play it by ear based on the situation and the demands at hand.”
    Was Washington as surprised by Putin’s Crimean move as Putin had been by Obama’s Kiev move?
    …………
    Extract:
    …This is a hint that until February 22 Putin hadn’t accepted the black scenarios he had received from the intelligence agencies……… Maybe he even believed Obama’s telephone call on February 21, promising to stick to the agreement signed that day between Yanukovich and the European Union (EU) foreign ministers.…………
    
    But once Yanukovich had been ousted over the following night and day, and the Kremlin accepted there was no going back for him, Putin adopted a long-prepared plan of action. In this plan, Crimea was a direct Russian security interest in a way the rest of eastern Ukraine is not. “We also followed certain logic: If we don’t do anything, Ukraine will be drawn into NATO sometime in the future. We’ll be told: ‘This doesn’t concern you,’ and NATO ships will dock in Sevastopol, the city of Russia’s naval glory.”
    “But it isn’t even the emotional side of the issue. The point is that Crimea protrudes into the Black Sea, being in its centre, as it were. However, in military terms, it doesn’t have the importance it used to have in the 18th and 19th centuries – I’m referring to modern strike forces, including coastal ones. But if NATO troops walk in, they will immediately deploy these forces there. Such a move would be geopolitically sensitive for us because, in this case, Russia would be practically ousted from the Black Sea area. We’d be left with just a small coastline of 450 or 600km, and that’s it!”
    ……………
    
    Extract:
    Putin continued: “In this way, Russia may be really ousted from this region that is extremely important for us… This is a serious thing. So we shouldn’t fear anything but we must consider these circumstances and react accordingly.
    As I’ve just said, the same is happening with our talks on the deployment of US missile defence elements.
    This is not a defensive system, but part of the offensive potential deployed far away from home.
    Again we’re being told: ‘This is not against you.’
    …………
    Extract:
    For the first time Putin is talking in public, in detail, and at length in the language of military defence and geostrategic security.
    He is also talking directly at the US.
    “Look at what they did with Yugoslavia: they cut it into small pieces and are now manipulating everything that can be manipulated there, which is almost anything.
    “Apparently, someone would like to do the same with us, and if you look at what’s happening, you’ll be able to answer your own question about who is doing what.”
    This is the frame of mind in which the movement of the USS Donald Cook into the Black Sea, starting on April 10, and heading north, was interpreted in Moscow.
    …………
    Extract:
    ……… as the USS Donald Cook was sailing on Saturday, April 12.
    On that day two Russian Sukhoi-24 attack aircraft, as well as a Black Sea fleet warship, were shadowing the Cook, when one of the planes made what the Pentagon later claimed to have been 12 low-altitude passes at the Cook.
    According to the US Navy account, the Russian aircraft flew within a thousand yards of the Cook and as low as 500 feet.
    At the time both Su-24 and destroyer were in international waters. From the Cook the Russian aircraft was visually confirmed to be unarmed.(Link in Helmer).
    
    The Pentagon spokesman declared: “This provocative and unprofessional Russian action is inconsistent with international protocols and previous agreements on the professional interaction between our militaries.”
    Note that the incident occurred on the Saturday, but no Pentagon-release report appeared until the following Monday, US time.
    The US reports, all based on the same Pentagon release, mix the days so that even in a single press report, the incident has been made to appear to have occurred on Monday, but also two days earlier.
    This Washington newspaper version makes the US F-15s (armed) above the Cook appear to be the Russian Su-24s (unarmed).(Helmer link)
    For the US and European press reporting the incident, the message was that the Russians were threatening a routine American naval operation in international waters.
    For the Russian side, the buzzing was intended as a warning that nothing an Aegis-armed missile battery does within range of Russia can be routine at any time. In the context of the Ukraine crisis, the Russian and Ukrainian media also reported, the Cook was intending to demonstrate this force capability by making a portcall at Odessa.
    …………
    Extract:
    A more elaborate version of the same warning was broadcast by Russia Today Television (RT) on April 10, along with film footage of the Cook moving through the Bosphorus.
    …………
    
    Extract:
    If the Su-24 buzzing the Cook on April 12 had dropped leaflets with a reprint of Article XIV, the message could not have been clearer.
    It didn’t, so Putin did: “Our American partners have turned down our proposal to sign even some trifling legal paper that would say that these systems are not directed against us.
    ……………
    
    Extract:
    The US destroyer survived the buzzing, and made port at Constanta on April 14 (image above). The welcoming ceremony was led by the Romanian President, Traian Basescu.
    In Basescu’s statement, he said the Cook would be replaced by a US frigate “ensuring thus a continuous presence in the area and increase interoperability between the Romanian and the American fleet.”
    Constanta port sources say the warship left the port in the afternoon of April 17.
    They said they did not know what direction it was taking.
    Twenty-four hours later a US Navy source confirmed the vessel was under way in the Black Sea.
    Apparently, it did not head north to Odessa. Nor did it sail south to Bulgaria, or to the Bosphorus.
    The US Navy does not disclose future ship portcalls.
    As US Vice President Joe Biden is scheduled to land in Kiev on April 21, the Cook remains in the Black Sea, location undisclosed by the US Navy.
    For refueling it is obliged to make port again by Thursday, April 24.
    
    Helmers 2014 seems confident the buzzing happened.
    The article does not make any reference to shutting down the Cook’s electronics. But as others have observed. Would the Russians buzzed it if they were not sure it was disabled?
Anonymous on April 11, 2021 · at 10:26 am EST/EDT

this is what i’ve been saying all along. the US is now playing catch up with the Russian’s weapons supremacy. and to finally settle the score, vladimir should initiate the first strike against the hegemon. vaporizing washington will stop all the future wars.
- GoverntheMente on April 11, 2021 · at 11:16 am EST/EDT
  
  Are you a kid or just not familiar with the way things are set up to respond to such an attack. Before that nuke would be above target and detonate SLBMs and or ICBMs would already be on their way towards Moscow and other targets. Putin recently declared that the Russian strategic forced would respond similarly to any incoming missiles towards Russia. They will assume it is armed with a nuclear warhead, not wait for the confirmation(detonation) and respond in kind.
  - Rick on April 11, 2021 · at 1:26 pm EST/EDT
    
    So what?? Russia and the Russian people are 100x more likely to survive a nuclear exchange. They are homogeneous! Look at the disgusting third world cities in America. Black on white crime, black on Asian crime, black on black crime. See a theme?? America would absolutely be destroyed in a nuclear exchange. Half the country would turn on each other. Russia is a huge country with half the population of the US. The Russian people are 100x more nationalistic than Americans. Half of Americans despise their country, its history and everything it stands for. Russia could destroy the US in all out war!!! The US military just had a failed hypersonic missile launch lol. We are a paper tiger. As an American Im disgusted by what’s happened to America!! We are a country that needs to get its woke, anti-white, degenerate, pro-homo/tranny corrupt ass kicked for once and I hope Putin f’ing does it!!!
    - bluedogg on April 11, 2021 · at 3:52 pm EST/EDT
      
      As an American I have to agree with you, I turned my back on this country when they murdered JFK in Dallas, Tex. And it was plain to see that it had been set up by elements within the country including congress in its cover up with the failed investigation, and the people did nothing while the dogs of war in Washington went full bore into NAM and the same war dogs are urging on this one with Russia and without a doubt the people will do nothing, so all we can hope is that Russia gives them such an ass kicking that it will be generations before they think of attacking anyone else.
- NJ on April 11, 2021 · at 11:26 am EST/EDT
  
  USAF Hypersonic Missile Fails To Launch In Highly Anticipated Test
  
  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/usaf-hypersonic-missiles-fails-launch-highly-anticipated-test
Alfred (Cairns) on April 11, 2021 · at 10:32 am EST/EDT

“which means Saudi and Qatari oil, and American LNG”

should be

“which means Saudi oil, and Qatari and American LNG”
Olivier on April 11, 2021 · at 10:37 am EST/EDT

This is a fascinating and scary analysis. I don’t think that throwing around billions of USD will be sufficient to catch up technologically. It took the Russians more than a decade of a sustained and focussed efforts to achieve this technological breakthrough. The US MIC, which was not able to turn the F-35 into a decent aircraft after spending more than a trillion dollar, is too corrupt and too inefficient to quickly catch up. Maybe in 10 or 15 years, but by then the Russians will have new, even more advanced weapons systems.
- Victor in Oxford on April 12, 2021 · at 7:34 am EST/EDT
  
  Once your system has been corrupted time only serves to make the situation worse, not better. Don’t expect any American breakthroughs. they will be fortunate to survive over the next few years.
Hank on April 11, 2021 · at 10:53 am EST/EDT

It appears to me that it is the US who is “cornered” here and getting more desperate. The Empire is on the verge of losing its grip on its key source of power, its currency control of energy pricing. NS 2 is just one piece of a much larger global play going on. Russia, China and Iran are most certainly going to bust US currency control over energy with a digital currency thus neutralizing sanctions and BRI is going forward regardless of the US “position” on it. Ukraine is but one part of this US “power” play. Biden’s team wants some kind of a PR “win” over Putin. They want to say “we put him in his place”. Nobody messes with tough guy Joe “brain dead” Biden. I think Russia, China and Iran have their eyes on a much larger vision and they will go forward with it regardless of US commands.
- dh-mtl on April 11, 2021 · at 11:23 am EST/EDT
  
  I think that you are right ‘that it is the US who is “cornered” here and getting more desperate’.
  
  However, rather than ‘The Empire is on the verge of losing its grip on its key source of power, its currency control of energy pricing.’, I would say that they have already lost control.
  
  Russia already is the key player in determining the price of oil. And since the start of ‘QE Infinity’ the demise of the dollar as the World’s reserve currency is assured, it is only a question of time for events to play out.
  - Hank on April 11, 2021 · at 1:26 pm EST/EDT
    
    I think you are correct. They have probably have lost control and are in freak out mode.
Tamas on April 11, 2021 · at 10:53 am EST/EDT

Interesting analysis. Very well explained and I must agree there is a chance this may happen .
The US is the instigator of All conflicts world wide . So in logic severely restrict their ability to wage war and world peace by default shall be achieved .
Not the response I expected but I grant there is a possibility
Nice article Saker
Chris on April 11, 2021 · at 11:04 am EST/EDT

Absolutely excellent article, one of the best so far.

I clearly remember a statement by Putin where he said that when you see that you can no longer avoid a fight, strike first! He said it word for word.

Likewise, Xi’s recent statement where he said that war is inevitable and the armed forces must prepare for it with all their might.

Let’s hope it doesn’t end in nuclear war. Unfortunately, this cannot be ruled out by the completely deranged US government.

Wish all the people on Earth that in the end, somewhere, reason will prevail.

Greetings from Switzerland
teranam13 on April 11, 2021 · at 11:04 am EST/EDT

Well, it may take more than two years to close the military technology gap but your point is well taken.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/usaf-hypersonic-missiles-fails-launch-highly-anticipated-test
GoverntheMente on April 11, 2021 · at 11:05 am EST/EDT

“If Russia were to use the window of supremacy to attempt a debilitating strike on the US military the US Navy is the most likely target. Ships are the most exposed, are not located inside another country’s borders, and are also the primary means of projecting US power. If China and Iran see Russia strike the US military, it would not be surprising if they also pile on using their own hypersonic missiles to destroy US Navy assets in the Persian Gulf and South China Sea.
However, I would not rule out a non-missile attack on DC. For example, there are many ways that the US power grid could be turned off without using missiles. The ensuing domestic chaos might prevent the US from responding.”

I don’t see Russia do something like that preemptively, especially not sinking USN ships. That would give the western propaganda mouthpieces the perfect occasion to demonize Russia based on real events. And since the event would be way bigger/more impactfull then those fairy tales they concocted the past decade, the effect on the public opinion would be orders of magnitude bigger.
And what would Russia gain? Changing US/western warhawks’ minds? I think it would only empower the hawks in the west because they can use it to gain public support. In the article you suggest that Russia, by doing this, could stop a attack from the US against Russia, I think the warlocks will thank Russia for saving them the effort of creating an other MH17 event and babies pulled from incubators staged or made up events. And NATO is to big to prevent an attack by them through a limited strike, anything not limited and they’ll go nuclear.
And China and Iran joining in on the fun by taking out several USN ships in various locations would escalate NATO’s reaction very quickly to nuclear weapons.
A cyberattack may be a more viable option, but disrupting public communication or energy networks would also be bad for Russian public image among the western public. You think it is bad now, wait till the public is directly affected by some Russian operation. Attacking military networks seems a better idea, especially disrupting their spaced based nodes would probably freak them out, but the public not so much.
- diegos on April 11, 2021 · at 11:54 am EST/EDT
  
  Well, it seems that the opinion of the westener audience is more important than anything else. Unfortunately what people think it’s irrilevant to history. It’s quite an evidence that only what people do is relevant. For the good and for the worse.
  - Dftbs on April 11, 2021 · at 12:55 pm EST/EDT
    
    Yes! At this point worrying about western propaganda yields diminishing returns. I don’t think western opinion should direct Russian strategic considerations. And I don’t think they do anymore.
    - MagdaTam on April 12, 2021 · at 3:44 am EST/EDT
      
      “I don’t think western opinion should direct Russian strategic considerations.
      
      And I don’t think they do anymore.”
      
      Although the opponents’ believed that western opinion, by which they meant “elite opinion”, since in their view others are food sources and human shields at their service, did/should direct Russian strategic considerations, others did not disabuse them of their illusions, thereby facilitating the lateral ongoing process of transcendence of the “Soviet Union” by the Russian Federation with the complicity of the opponents.
      
      “…western propaganda yields diminishing returns.” to those so engaged, hence another reason for not disabusing the opponents of their illusions given that despite the beliefs of opponents not all others were/are “food sources and human shields at their service”.
      
      “Well, it seems that the opinion of the westener audience is more important than anything else. ”
      
      A quite understandable “appearance” given that the words are in English.
- tobi999 on April 11, 2021 · at 2:11 pm EST/EDT
  
  but there is one thing you can be sure of, if the US-NATO does it moves in Ukraine, Russia can do the same via Hisbolha and Iran in Syria and Iraq…..and turn life of US-NATO there litterly into hell over night…as the Russians there won’t watch idle by what is going on in the Ukraine and maybe even Crimea, then Syrians, and Iranian forces will lunch total war with US, as they will be supported by Russian artillerie and missiles which they can later denie they have fired as so many missiels and shells will hit the US troops and wipe them out….China I do not see to go for them….but surely Iran, Syria, Hisbolha, oh yeah the US has the Kurds….lol that won’t be able to protect them…..as Turky will take the chance to get rid of Kurds once and forever and taking north of Iraq and Syria after Russians and Iranians wiped out the US there….Turkey has much more to gain by playing with Iran and Russia, as both wont’t mind if Turkey secures this areas, US and NATO forces would be losing in Iraq and Syria in less then 24 hours….so they would go nuclear frirst and they would fire also nukes against China which did nothing why? well to make sure China gets weakend and hurt too….Thats why in the end even China would nuke the insane US into stone age
- padre on April 12, 2021 · at 12:09 pm EST/EDT
  
  When Russia decides that, the western propaganda will matter no more, since as Putin put it, he will consider the first strike is inevitable since all other resources were exhausted! Remember that he said he doesn’t care about the world without Russia in it!
Ishkabibble on April 11, 2021 · at 11:12 am EST/EDT

“Russia will only strike the USA if they believe they have no other choice. What they have learned from seven years of sanctions, attempted coups, fake poisonings, and other provocations is that the US will continue this behavior for as long as Russia continues to accept it, or until Russia is broken and conquered. In short, Biden’s team may have finally convinced Russia that they have no other choice.

President Biden has handed Putin the justification for a first strike by openly stating his intention to conduct a cyber attack on Russia “soon.” That is a public declaration of war. The fact that the Russian ambassador was recalled from Washington and has not been sent back should be a wakeup call to America that DC itself is on the potential target list.”

Yes, the above sums it all up, but do the Russian decision-makers see things this way, or do they still hope for an (IMO impossible) rapprochement with an Empire that ignores international law and breaks treaties at the drop of a hat?

Here’s what the Russian VIPs have to first understand about the US, and then the decision about what to do will be painfully obvious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu0rP2VWLWw
Erikassimo on April 11, 2021 · at 11:14 am EST/EDT

Interesting and well argued article.
I don’t believe there is any significant supremacy in weapons technology. Maybe Russia has an edge in some areas but for sure not substantial enough to strike first. That whole reasoning is a dud, imho.

If Ukraine attacks Donbass, Russia will primarily hope that the Donbass militia is strong enough to stop them. The fact that being crushed by an undefeatable Russian army is the highest price the Ukrainian troops can win when attacking will hamper their morale. And for sure Russia will give a host of support with material intel command control electronics and the like. Escalated as needed. If Nordstream 2 is important enough for Washington to start a war over, it is also important enough for Russia to try to stay out of such a war, if possible without losing ground.

My beliefe is that Russia is winning the peace and the status quo works in favor of Russia. Hence, it will avoid open conflict if at all possible.
- Perimetr on April 11, 2021 · at 12:04 pm EST/EDT
  
  You should catch up on your reading, try Andrei Martyanov, The (Real) Revolution in Military Affairs. Russia is WAY ahead of the US and that is my only real criticism of this article — the window of technological supremacy for weaponry is not going to narrow anytime soon, it will certainly take more than several years.
  
  The US already lost the arms race.
Serbian girl on April 11, 2021 · at 11:19 am EST/EDT

“Several years ago the US successfully pressured Bulgaria into cancelling the South Stream…However, US sanctions have been unable to deter Germany from allowing the Russians to complete the Nord Stream”

Actually the opposite is true:

Bulgaria was forced to cancel South Stream but then they quietly and successfully completed Balkan Stream. The Bulgarians provided 100% of the financing (ie without Gazprom) and cleverly presented it as an extension of the national pipeline grid thus avoiding sanctions under the EU “Third Energy Package”.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/how-bulgaria-gave-gazprom-the-keys-to-the-balkans/

It is Germany who has been unable to come up with a creative solution to safeguard NS2. It is Germany’s powerful leader Merkel, de facto leader of the EU, who is unable (or unwilling) to provide the necessary political cover for the pipelines.
- Ann Watson on April 11, 2021 · at 10:29 pm EST/EDT
  
  excellent comment Serbian Girl – and thanks for information about Bulgaria – Good for Bulgaria !!
MagdaTam on April 11, 2021 · at 11:27 am EST/EDT

“Several analysts have written articles..”

Analysts tend not to write articles or publish in the public domain, but tend to co-operate/engage with others with agency to facilitate outcomes and purposes.

The designation and co-operative opportunities of analysts to engage with others with agency to facilitate outcomes and purposes is often a function of the analyst’s proven facility in analysis tested through implementation of strategies to facilitate outcomes and purposes to which their analyses have contributed.

These analyses are not only subject to peer review i.e. review by other analysts, but also reviewed by strategists of varying definition, who typically in co-operation with others including but not restricted to analysts, are responsible for the assay of incorporation of analyses in strategies to facilitate outcomes and purposes.

Some who represent themselves as “analysts” do write articles or publish in the public domain thereby offering a different definition of “analyst” to “their target audience”.

Those who represent themselves as “analysts” tend not to be subject to peer review since “their target audiences” tend to be restricted to their targeted audience, which is often believed/wished to be bereft of peers, including by “the target audience” – one of the benefits of the opponents attempts at “dumbing down”.

The efforts of those who represent themselves as “analysts” tend to have utility in useful foolery and hence tend not to be reviewed by analysts or be criticised by analysts, enhanced by the facilities including but not restricted to “short memories” of the targeted audience.
- pdb on April 11, 2021 · at 12:46 pm EST/EDT
  
  Seriously? What did you just say? It made no sense to me…
  
  Patrick
Anonymous on April 11, 2021 · at 11:31 am EST/EDT

Fantastic info brief, feels like a combo-effort, whatever it is, get it out there, to as wide an audience as possible and get there before the MSM ranting begins, get the possibility for de-escalation in the minds of the masses first, in the name of God, do it now>
Guy from US on April 11, 2021 · at 11:32 am EST/EDT

I’ve not read about the incidents mentioned here about Biden’s humiliation at the hands of Russia/China in 2011. Has anyone else read this? Any links for this?

If true, it explains a lot.
Norwegian on April 11, 2021 · at 11:35 am EST/EDT

“For these reasons I believe that there is a high probability that Russia will strike first before NATO can fully put in place the forces for planned exercises for this Summer. ”

It would be more Russian/Putin style to announce in advance a demonstration strike using weapons the US has no defence against, e.g. in the upcoming 21. April speech and tell the world that “what you just saw may happen to any aggressor, it is advised to withdraw ukrainian forces to the western side of the Dniepr river at your earliest convienience” – or something like that.
- Canuck on April 11, 2021 · at 2:31 pm EST/EDT
  
  Of all the speculation, I like this take. Maybe a key space based CnC node? The 21st seems like a key turning point in the making. My thought was it may also be the time the RF announces it is withdrawing from SWIFT, hence their big club is no longer a huge factor.
ws on April 11, 2021 · at 11:42 am EST/EDT

Great analysis but I have some doubts about this statement:

Russia will strike first before NATO can fully put in place the forces for planned exercises for this Summer

Without a massive Urko attack on the donbas?
I think that for putin’s “rules” an adequate provocation is still necessary. A “hard” DIRECT war that can deviate into a nuclear war needs much more serious reasons than unilateral “hard sanctions”. Russia has already shown that it can also resist financial disconnection
- NYCnative on April 20, 2021 · at 4:02 pm EST/EDT
  
  In another article, it was argued that Russia’s best move is to evacuate everyone who wants to leave Donbass and resettle them, thus saving their lives in a humanitarian way.
  
  Ukraine doesn’t have the resources or manpower to resettle Donbass or do anything useful with it.
Leo on April 11, 2021 · at 11:45 am EST/EDT

“Vladimir Putin was handpicked by the Western handlers to replace Boris Yeltsin in 1999, largely because he was known to be reliable”. I don’t believe this. This is astonishing nonsense. No, the West never handpicked Vladimir Putin, a high level KGB operative. This was done by Russian patriots, who made Yeltsin an offer: If he resigned and allowed Vladimir Putin to replace him, then he would not be prosecuted for treason. Yeltsin accepted and Putin honored the deal.

The article states that Russia, in the current situation, might strike the first blow. While not impossible, this is highly unlikely. Why would Russia do it and be accused of “aggression”. The honor for the attack will go to Ukraine and it’s NATO handlers. However, if Zelensky foolishly agrees to launch an attack, he can expect a chain reaction among the impoverished citizens of Ukraine. The question of Ukraine’s survival as a state will be raised, ie. it can look forward to a break up, as predicted by analysts.

And yes, the article is certainly correct when it states that any termination of use of the petro-dollar by countries would certainly be a mortal blow to the US. Not only have a heap of dollars been printed, but the US can expect the bulk of them returning back to the US. On top of that we have predictions of analysts that Russia and China will introduce gold backed currencies, which would certainly bury the dollar. And yes, the Nord Stream – 2 gas pipeline needs to be cancelled, as it would give Germany and others clean Russian gas at 50 % discount compared to impure US gas. This would certainly boost German industrial production.

Finally, what is Sleepy Joe Biden going to do in this situation ? Since he is a senile old man, he will do as his neocon handlers tell him to do. He will sign an executive order and forget that he signed it in the first place, no matter what it is. He is the worst puppet the neocons ever placed in the White House. I don’t think that at the present moment anybody can give a concrete prediction of what is really going to happen. We shall just have to sit back and watch.
- Pamela on April 11, 2021 · at 12:40 pm EST/EDT
  
  I had not read your opening statement, before I wrote my own dissent.
  
  I agree with you completely – a completely unsubstantiated piece of Western allegation and smearing the writer appears to have taken to heart without any investigation.
  
  It doesn’t hold up in any way.
  - MagdaTam on April 11, 2021 · at 7:53 pm EST/EDT
    
    RE Pamela on April 11, 2021 · at 12:40 pm EST/EDT
    
    “It doesn’t hold up in any way.”
    
    The register has a purpose but perhaps
    
    MagdaTam on April 11, 2021 · at 11:27 am EST/EDT
    
    may add to illuminations of whys but not to all including
    
    pdb on April 11, 2021 · at 12:46 pm EST/EDT
    
    Seriously? What did you just say? It made no sense to me…
    
    Patrick
- Ed on April 11, 2021 · at 1:29 pm EST/EDT
  
  Putin answered your question about why would Russia strike first. This author quotes Putin in the article you just read: “when you know that you can’t avoid a fight, strike first.”
  Does anyone believe that Rus has any choices other than to fight to win or be defeated?
- MagdaTam on April 11, 2021 · at 7:40 pm EST/EDT
  
  “Why would Russia do it and be accused of “aggression”.
  
  Your question is valid but likely not your “answer” given that the “accusations” of opponents have utility.
  
  Your answer is more likely to be deemed plausible belief by opponents who seek to assign a level of significance to themselves as a function of their belief in “exceptionalism”, which others do not share.
  
  “This was done by Russian patriots, who made Yeltsin an offer: ”
  
  This does have some validity although it is not inclusive enough, but your timetable is out.
  
  ” We shall just have to sit back and watch.”
  
  There are illustrative sayings that sheep who think they are sharks often drown, and tourists who wander into war zones don’t tend to enjoy continued well-being, or well,being.
  
  It is wise to recognise both facility and role informed by from he/she according to his/her ability, to whom according to his/her need.
  
  Try to avoid emulating Mr. Roberts’ observation :
  
  “So, the questions for Andrei Martyanov, The Saker, and for Putin and the Russian government is: How long does turning your other cheek work? ”
  
  Enjoy your journey.
- Anonymous on April 12, 2021 · at 12:48 am EST/EDT
  
  It shows again what grip ‘dezinformatsya’ and defeatist propaganda has on western minds who pretend to know better than the Russians what’s going on in Russia. It keeps alive in western minds the misconception that Russia has no policy of its own, that its political decisions are haphazard, opportunistic, unpredictable and ‘impenetrable’, for the ultra-patriots that the leaders are working against the interests of Russia and should be changed.
  They always would (mis)quote Churchill with an air of superiority: ‘Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”. Of course, Churchill was referring to the Foreign Policy actions of Russia in 1939 and in actual fact he clearly indicated that he perfectly understood what the ‘key’ to this riddle was: ”That key is Russian national interest” and he explained it in no uncertain terms, which apply to the present situation almost to the letter.
- MagdaTam on April 12, 2021 · at 10:40 am EST/EDT
  
  ““Vladimir Putin was handpicked by the Western handlers to replace Boris Yeltsin in 1999, largely because he was known to be reliable”.
  
  A response was MagdaTam on April 11, 2021 · at 7:40 pm EST/EDT below which was moderated into the “wrong thread”.
  
  Additional data in respect of what some seek to represent as the “annointment” is contained in MagdaTam on April 11, 2021 · at 7:53 pm EST/EDT and MagdaTam on April 12, 2021 · at 9:09 am EST/EDT both below.
  
  As suggested re Pamela on April 11, 2021 · at 12:36 pm EST/EDT by way of MagdaTam on April 12, 2021 · at 9:09 am EST/EDT
  
  “Although not in such detail since level of detail is often a marker of assay of emotion and weakness, tell the truth as far as you are capable since “opponents” are less likely to believe it, thereby re-enforcing their ignorance and weakness.
  
  Rendering some useful fools shows better manners than “assassinating” them, although not all agree.”
- MagdaTam on April 13, 2021 · at 5:43 am EST/EDT
  
  RE: Leo on April 11, 2021 · at 11:45 am EST/EDT
  
  “Vladimir Putin was handpicked by the Western handlers to replace Boris Yeltsin in 1999, largely because he was known to be reliable”.
  
  via MagdaTam on April 12, 2021 · at 10:40 am EST/EDT
  
  Additional data in respect of what some seek to represent as the “annointment” .
  
  Inherent in notions of who annoited whom are the concept of “annoitment” and the notion that someone was annoited.
  
  The notion of annoitment with benefit of spectacle has been a requirement of coercive class based social relations since their inception.
  
  Some of the reasons for, and the “benefits” of, this practice are explored in:
  
  https://www.rt.com/shows/renegade-inc/520615-another-hero-individualism-complexes/
  
  The belief in annoitment is so embedded in some social relations that the “expectations” of many are based on the conflation of projection/”human nature”, and hence is rarely challenged, thereby contributing to various self-induced illusions/misrepresentations, and the continuing enmazement of some in coercive class based social relations.
  
  As outlined before the “benefits” of the opponents’ efforts at “dumbing down” did not/do not solely accrue to the opponents, but facilitated and continues to facilitate, the complicity of opponents in the ongoing lateral process of the transcendence of the “Soviet Union” by the Russian Federation, to which the opponents assign their own expectations.
Perimetr on April 11, 2021 · at 11:45 am EST/EDT

From reading Andrei Martyanov, I don’t get the impression that “the window of Russian [technological weapon] supremacy may only last for two or three years at most.” Other than that, yes, the analysis looks very convincing.
- Bosnian Croat on April 11, 2021 · at 12:18 pm EST/EDT
  
  Yes, he did not explain how he came to that conclusion
- Pamela on April 11, 2021 · at 12:43 pm EST/EDT
  
  IN fact, when announcing the existence of the weapons, Putin said then and publicly – that of course we know they will catch up – so before then, we must have moved again.
  
  Russia will stay in the lead in this field for years, because the leaders are very aware that they cannot rest on their laurels, and and must keep moving.
  
  And they are moving in a nation growing, with patriotic passion and a determination not to be taken in war again.
  Their competitor is, in the main, an empire in collapse, it’s infrastructure decaying ; living on a knife edge of massive debt and collapse.
  Russia will safe technologically for a long time to come I would propose.
  - David Sant on April 11, 2021 · at 9:32 pm EST/EDT
    
    Your points on Germany versus Bulgaria on the pipeline are well taken.
    
    It is agreed that Russia will try to keep the lead while the USA tries to take the lead back. However, I am not privy to either country’s secret weapons research programs. This article was based on publicly available information only. I cannot predict how long Russia’s lead will last other than it will be a minimum of two or three years.
    
    Regarding Putin’s appointment – sure he was selected by insiders in the Russian government. He was also approved by the “consultants” or whatever you want to call the wrecking team the Americans sent to advise the Russian government on how to transition to a market economy. Perhaps the Russian insiders expected Putin to do what he did. Based on Browder’s reaction, the Western advisers were completely taken by surprise.
    
    Yes, a first strike by Russia would seem to be a terrible move according to people who care about world opinion. But in some cases it is better to be feared than loved. Despite 20 years of effort, Russia is unloved and demonized. The West is never going to love Russia. In the face of endless provocations, it could make more sense to embrace the fear, by demonstrating superiority against the US empire, but then offer olive branches to Europe.
    
    The purpose of my article was NOT to say that Russia SHOULD strike first. But to show that there is a scenario where Russia COULD strike first in a non-nuclear context that might upset the balance of power. If Russia were to deliver a debilitating blow to the US Navy without using nuclear weapons, while offering peace to NATO, it would have a shattering impact on European opinion. I do believe that Putin would make this kind of move if he was convinced he had a high chance of success without starting nuclear war. Those two conditions may not be possible. And Russia may just deal with the conflict on the doorstep and keep waiting for the US economy to implode.
diegos on April 11, 2021 · at 11:57 am EST/EDT

Well, it seems that the opinion of the westener audience is more important than anything else. Unfortunately what people think it’s irrilevant to history. It’s quite an evidence that only what people do is relevant. For the good and for the worse.
NJ on April 11, 2021 · at 11:57 am EST/EDT

Well, let’s see who blinks first then:

Blinken warns China, Russia about military action
But he stops well short of promising the U.S. would intervene if they launched invasions.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/11/blinken-warns-china-russia-military-action-480814
NJ on April 11, 2021 · at 12:05 pm EST/EDT

Beware of empire media spin. Take it from one of the parties to the teleconference:

https://tass.com/politics/1276543
Merkel didn’t demand Russia’s military presence be reduced near Ukrainian border – Kremlin
afrin on April 11, 2021 · at 12:15 pm EST/EDT

NATO becomes a beast out of control. Cannot be sedated. Must be shoted down.
pesche on April 11, 2021 · at 12:31 pm EST/EDT

Time is on Russias side. The Anglozio empire is destabilizing by the day and their main tool to project power, the US-Dollar, is in danger to lose most of its credibility.
Pamela on April 11, 2021 · at 12:36 pm EST/EDT

“Vladimir Putin was handpicked by the Western handlers to replace Boris Yeltsin in 1999, largely because he <was known to be reliable.”

I find this a rather astonishing assertion. The verb “was” from “to be” is a definitive verb, that is not subjunctive. “Was” makes an absolute statement, a given fact, not open to interpretation as in “it was hot yesterday, the shade temperature was measured at 35C”.

However, such verbs must carry the evidence which supports them.

Where does this gentleman get the evidence from to support this amazing assertion? I have never seen any such.

From his own Q & A autobiography, “First Person” Putin informs us that, after he lost his job as Deputy Mayor of St. Petersberg following Sobcheks election defeat, he was out of work. He had been offered work by the incoming mayor who had run a very dirty campaign and he refused. He is, as we have seen always, a man of total integrity – of principle, always.

He was out of work for some time, and contemplating starting as a taxi driver at one point, but continued to talk to those he knew; contacts from his work as Deputy Major. Finally “Chief of Staff Pavel Borodin brought me into the presidential administration. I dont know why”.

However, he had also impressed another St. Petersberg-er, Aleksei Bolshkov, who was by then a prominent person at the Kremlin, by his courtesy to him back home. Not happy with the post offered Putin, he offered him the job as his deputy. Putin thus worked in the Control Directorate, which was uninspiring, and not what he wanted.
However, quite soon, having shown his competence, he was sent to the FSB as it’s head. He didn’t want that, either, but as he explained to his then wife – ” I wasn’t asked – I was sent”

It was from here he came to Yeltsin’s notice. This was only from the work as head of FSB, and his reporting to him. He explained that he never had a social relationship with Yeltsin as many did “he would have tennis afternoons. And I dont play tennis”.

It was not only Yeltsin who pushed him by making him PM with a view to the Presidency. When Yeltsin was pushing him to run for President, he was also being pressured by the oligarch, Berezovsky. There is a video of an interview with Berezovsky, him saying that Yeltsin asked him to try to persuade a highly reluctant Putin to run. He recorded:

“Putin was on holiday at that time with his family in the South of France. I went to see him.They were staying about 2-3 blocks back from the sea, in a small plain little hotel. I spent all day arguing with him. He really didn’t want the Presidency. It was a very hard decision for him”.

We need to remember, that at this time Putin had gone from being head of FSB to the PM. It was from here he dealt a blow to the plans of the West. They were using the bandits to attack and try to take Chechen and Dagestan. Putin has said that, as head of FSB, he was reading their communications, stating to their Western backers “Russia is weak as never before, we can divide her from herem from the south”.

As PM Putin destroyed them – and regained Chechnya, which she has never lost, also Dagestan.

Thus, It is highly unlikely that any Western forces would have wanted him in power in Russia after this. He defeated a major plan they had – moreover it was believed by many in power in Russia that by doing so he would ruin his political future. He didn’t care. He said if he just saved Chechen, he would be satisfied, before going off to look for work as a lawyer. Strength, principle, integrity, Patriotism, achievement for Russia, before self, all shown, Not things the Western invaders would have wanted; and because of them Putin would not have been their puppet.

Putin records that after much thought he came to the rather fatalistic decision that “if this was meant to be my fate, then I would do it, but I would go on to the end. After all, I could always sell sunflower seeds after, if it failed”.

No-where is there any indication in any way of any “Western” involvement. Whilst it is true that Russia lost nearly all of her sovereignty at that time, there were still pathways in institutions that the thousands of American bureaucrats had no access to.

Putin has recorded the many instances of how he never put a foot wrong – anywhere. In St. Petersberg his then wife had a horrible car accident, which had required surgeries – she was pretty sick. A Finnish bureaucrat offered to fly her to Finland for care – Russian care system was a disaster at that point. Putin thanked him but said “she will have to recover here in Russia”. He would not risk it being interpreted as a bribe.

For him to have interacted with the West, as this writer stated categorically he did, implies he was unethical, that he practised deceit and bribery – how else could they have persuaded him?. Also, that he is a categorical liar in that he has never admitted to this. That he was prepared to be a traitor to his country, by interacting this way with the nations invaders.

I find this disgusting, frankly. There is not one scrap of evidence to support either the statement, nor its implications as to the psychology – the integrity – of the man, Putin.

“When Russia entered Syria to fight ISIS, they did not publicly expose the fact that the US and Israel were the primary backers of ISIS.”

I disagree wholeheartedly. Prior to that invasion, Putin spoke at the UN. In that, he documented what had been happening in the Middle East and Syria and made the statement – which most in the West mis-translated for public benefit of …… “I would like to ask those who have created this situation do you realise now the mess you have made”, but ….”{The translation for the West said “do you realise what you have done..” however InessaS, the Russian lady who lives in NZ made a direct and accurate translation available}.

It was to the US and it’s allies he was addressing his statement, very clearly. – I’d say that although he didn’t specify Israel, it is known to be hand in glove as an ally of America. Moreover, there is another video clip of him answering a question in public about the Russian involvement – he stated that at an interview with the Americans about what they were doing in Iraq – before Syria,- has had said to them “you are going to disband the Iraqi military, putting thousands of trained personal on the streets. What are you going to do with them? Swish them away, like flies”.? {He continued – they had no answer}.

So he was making it clear for those who would listen exactly who he held responsible for the mess in the ME and the assaults on Syria.

As to what Putin will do — clearly whatever it is, it will not involve any sort of “attack” i.e. military move, since he has stated that any such action will only be undertaken in order to defend the Donbass from such, from as in, for example, “another Srebrenica”.

I would propose there is a very good chance we will never know for certain. So much is done behind closed doors, via phone calls, use of Intelligence Information we can have no access to. It may even be a promise to not reveal something, not follow up on a possible line of action the West would find horrifying, if they just pack up quietly and go home – and this will never be made public.

One thing I would suggest the past has indicated about Putin is how he follows Sun Tzu. The best commander never fights a battle at all. If he can get what he wants – which for Putin is a peace in Russian interests, – by not fighting, but such very quiet non-public means, he will do so.

And I would propose that is what is most likely to happen.
- Per/Norway on April 11, 2021 · at 1:25 pm EST/EDT
  
  A good comment Pamela, i was left wondering about the same thing+ the “2-3 years to catch up comment.
- Ed on April 11, 2021 · at 1:39 pm EST/EDT
  
  In all of those events during the Yeltsin period, recounted above, do you really not see any opportunity for Western powers to have a hand in raising young Putin’s star? You obviously haven’t thought much about how such matters work in the real world.
  - Pamela on April 11, 2021 · at 1:51 pm EST/EDT
    
    You obviously haven’t thought much about evidence, analysis and conclusion free of what you want it to be.
    
    There is NOTHING in ALL the known facts and actions at the time to indicate that the West had the slightest hand in it.
    
    The major support against it, though, is knowledge of the kind of man Putin is – his values, his integrity, and his considerable foresight.
    - Ed on April 11, 2021 · at 2:04 pm EST/EDT
      
      The west Was the primary force in the Yeltsin debacle. Yeltsin was the primary force in Putin’s ascent. This, madame, is circumstantial evidence.
      You seem indignant at the suggestion that this occurred. Such machinations are no reflection on Putin; it’s not likely he even knew what was happening behind the scenes at the time. Putin doesn’t need you to defend his honor. He does that quite well himself.
      - Pamela on April 12, 2021 · at 12:27 am EST/EDT
        
        “This, madame, is circumstantial evidence.”
        
        No, it is not. It is an assumption based on a general situation. Nothing more. It is the same as the person who, seeing a lady visit the house of a single gentleman a couple of times, instantly assumes they are having an affair – with not a shred of evidence of any kind, including “circumstantial”.
        
        “Putin doesn’t need you to defend his honor. He does that quite well himself”
        
        Charming – so gentlemanly. Thank you. The charm shines like a dying tea-light candle thru heavily smoked glass.
        
        But then so does the Dominant Paradigm – which I wrote of in the current Cafe. The Paradigm of aggression against any perceived “not – me” which runs through all the Anglo Saxons, but especially American ones.
        
        Thank you for illuminating it so nicely for me. And the other aspect of course. There is another commentator here who has refuted the view you uphold – but Leo is a mans’ name. I notice you pick a woman to be so “charming in the Western Way” to.
        
        Again, that Dominant Paradigm.
      - Anonymous on April 12, 2021 · at 4:25 am EST/EDT
        
        A former senior KGB officer, Director of FSB, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation not knowing what was happening behind the scenes at the time? What planet do you live on, monsieur?
- Razor on April 11, 2021 · at 6:26 pm EST/EDT
  
  The most thoughftul, insightful and balanced summation here.I agree 100%.
- Pamela on April 12, 2021 · at 12:57 am EST/EDT
  
  Re those early years of Putins’ before he even moved to Moscow. His friend said, “he changed a lot after becoming Mayor. He was very thoughtful. Even at BBQ’s he would pace the fence, lost in thought. ”
  
  Putin was out of work for a few months, before getting a job in Moscow. And he didn’t want to go there – he wanted to stay in St.P’s. But this is a time he never talks of. I have often wondered, what an intelligent man, an active man who had years of experience in espionage, and political analysis, and had come home to a Russia being invaded and falling apart, would have thought of it all.
  
  He’s not the man to sit and do nothing. He had many Intelligence contacts, like Sergei Ivanov. And when he got that first job, he said, it wasn’t what he wanted, but that it was in the Presidential Admin which was ” the main thing” And I wondered why.
  
  I suspect that V.V.P was laying plans of his own long before anyone heard of him!!! And “Western residents” from America had not a thing to do with any of them.
- MagdaTam on April 12, 2021 · at 9:09 am EST/EDT
  
  “When Yeltsin was pushing him to run for President, he was also being pressured by the oligarch, Berezovsky. There is a video of an interview with Berezovsky, him saying that Yeltsin asked him to try to persuade a highly reluctant Putin to run.”
  
  That was one of the “opinions” of Mr. Berezhovsky evangelised, particularly when he requested being allowed to return to the Russian Federation, which Mr. Berezhovsky thought plausible despite breaking a promise on exit of not engaging in political activities which he subsequently did through associates in Latvia, primarily as a function of Mr. Berezhovsky’s default practice of seeking to assign a significance to himself which others didn’t share.
  
  This behaviour was also a default practice Mr. Browder, Mr. Khodorkovsky and many “Americans” particularly during the 1990’s.
  
  Mr. Berezhovsky was disabused of his “opinion” when his former “protege” Mr. Abramovich delivered a critique of his opinion created by others, but Mr. Berezhovsky initially chose to ignore it.
  
  With the benefit of further elucidation Mr. Berezhovsky then changed his address to London whilst continuing to be very resentful of Mr. Abramovich whom he subsequently sued in London.
  Mr. Berezhovsky’s legal suit failed undermining his reputation and wealth.
  
  Mr. Nemtsov upset many people whilst Mr. Berezhovsky upset even more.
  
  Mr. Berezhovsky’s well-being was largely based on the continuing belief of others in his “potency” which did not continue.
  
  Consequently some are of the view that in emulation of “Roman emperors”, Mr. Berezhovsky committed suicide in his bath, whilst opponents attempted to evangelise the existence of a 5th column in the Russian Federation.
  
  Perhaps in closing I can offer an observation to consider.
  
  Although not in such detail since level of detail is often a marker of assay of emotion and weakness, tell the truth as far as you are capable since “opponents” are less likely to believe it, thereby re-enforcing their ignorance and weakness.
  
  Rendering some useful fools shows better manners than “assassinating” them, although not all agree.
WC on April 11, 2021 · at 1:05 pm EST/EDT

The US sees NS2 as absolutely the “camel’s nose under the tent”. Probably they realized it a little too late and Germany has managed to hoodwink the US for a while. It’s now or never. Rus can easily connect Iranian gas or CIS gas into its pipeline even on South Stream and pretty much be the vendor and pipe provider. It can also “resell” gas if it wants to. Gives them tremendous bargaining power, pretty much like the US does with its settlement currency today. Once you cut off $ transactions for selling gas the $ futures tumbles and on and on.
What surprises me is the US has not taken a more violent route so far…
Ola Nordmann on April 11, 2021 · at 1:06 pm EST/EDT

what is this “2-3 years” for the u.s to catch up nonsense??

If supersonic weapons were that easy to make why did Russia spend so long time to create them??
Or did i miss something about the Russian ssonic projects was started in 2015-16?
🤷‍♂️
- David Sant on April 11, 2021 · at 10:47 pm EST/EDT
  
  The US has had hypersonic development programs since the 1980s. Unless you work in such programs you or I have no idea how close they are to a working system. Through all of history advantages in arms races rarely last very long. The USA had the drone advantage in the late 1990s. Today everyone has them. Hypersonics will go the same way.
RKelly on April 11, 2021 · at 1:08 pm EST/EDT

Putin is a Martial Artist, he is a Master > Sun Tzu. The West (aka Europe, USA) don’t appear as an enlightenment. China, Iran are Russia’s allies.

Sun Tzu’s alchemy shall prevail & prayerfully via enlightening collective consciousness vs. nuclear winter .. awesome post Saker, as always!
Ishkabibble on April 11, 2021 · at 1:34 pm EST/EDT

It should be remembered that in late August of 2020 — not that many months ago — Russia decided to “send a message” to the Empire. It was in the form of the publication of a declassified video of the events leading up to, and the explosion of, the most powerful, cleanest, hydrogen bomb ever exploded in the atmosphere.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJhZ3i-HXS0
Click on CC to get English subtitles. Also notice how long after the explosion occurred that human technicians were allowed to explore the site of the explosion.

Do you think that the exceptionally idiotic VIPs in Washington “got the message”? Judging by their recent behavior, I think the answer is “no”.
7p62mm on April 11, 2021 · at 1:37 pm EST/EDT

I think that the main goal of the Biden regime is to block NS2. It looks like they can achieve this by getting Russia to intervene in the Donbass. It would not be necessary for NATO to get involved.

When Putin spoke of the importance of striking first he was most likely speaking of a situation where Russia itself is being directly threatened; i.e., NATO starts positioning a large force across the Russian border. A successful Russian intervention in the Donbass will block NS2 so a further escalation would not be necessary by the west. This seems like the most likely outcome to me.

Excellent article. The author makes a lot of excellent observations. I just don’t think that the Russians are planning on a preemptive strike.
Prowall on April 11, 2021 · at 1:47 pm EST/EDT

The good One Is, from the Russian side, a strategy Suleimani’s like. And a U-turn change of narrative toward the ever Ukrainian Brother. As Iran done with Iraq. In that way the world gas the High probability to avoid a WWIII.
Gary Littlejohn on April 11, 2021 · at 2:26 pm EST/EDT

In general an excellent piece, but the sources claiming that the USS Donald Cook must have been hit from a ground-based ECM are almost certainly wrong. Having watched a video where Micahel Hoffman chaired a talk by a researcher from King’s College London, they discounted claims about this form of attack on two grounds: firstly that it involved ‘new scientific principles’ and secondly that a spokesman for the Russian Aerospace Forces stated that the ECM would not be deployed on an SU-24, but on another plane.

There are grounds for thinking that Russian physics is perfectly capable of springing such scientific surprises. They are not limited to the understanding of EM phenomena implied by the Western reliance on the ‘Maxwell equations’ which are really simplications of what was published in the first edition of James Clerk Maxwell’s famous book on the principles of electricity and magnetism. (After the end of the Soviet Union, a fairly large group of Russian physicists visited Maxwell’s home in South West Scotland.)

The second ground seems to be a complete misunderstanding of pretty plain language, because they somehow misinterpreted the statement by the spokeperson to mean that the ECM would not be deployed at all. In my view, it was clearly intended to convey that, in service, it would be deployed on a better plane!
JJ on April 11, 2021 · at 2:28 pm EST/EDT

One wonders if there is a possibility all USA miltary satellites would be a suitable subject and example of Russia’s missile power.
- bill baly on April 11, 2021 · at 3:00 pm EST/EDT
  
  Yes, it could happen. Russia, the US and China all can knock out satellites from the ground. But there is no need for a missile and resulting mess in orbit that could destroy communication and satellite navigation for years. Russia has apparently demonstrated an orbiting satellite weapon of some kind .
  
  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53518238
  https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-45194333
  
  Heck, just spray paint the sensors (there is a mirror about 8’/2.4m in diameter) or jam/disable the transmitter or attitude control system and the very expensive satellite is worthless.
  
  But retaliation would be likely. I presume the earlier American X-37 (and the larger successors now in development) military space plane is intended to do similar nasty things to other countries’ space assets (maybe even steal them) as well as snoop around, and China may have recently tested a similar robot space plane (last September).
Rhys Jaggar on April 11, 2021 · at 3:23 pm EST/EDT

Discussing Biden’s motives is not relevant here.

What is relevant is how all Europeans behave to any Americans resident in Europe.

Basically, you should charge any American wanting to buy from you a lot, lot more than you charge anyone else. So if a school charges £20,000 a year in fees to a UK pupil, a French pupil, a German pupil, it should charge £30,000 to any American child. That sort of thing.

When every single American in Europe is overcharged 50% for absolutely everything, they will learn what the Nordstream II mafia heist is about.

The next thing that should happen is that every required legal action for any American individual or corporation operating anywhere in Europe should be deliberately delayed, each time, by anything from 1 week to 6 months. It is very, very important that all US businesses operating here are made to feel absolutely unwelcome, absolutely discriminated against and absolutely treated unfairly in any court of law that, in a fit of weakness, even deigns to hear their complaint.

People really do have to stop treating Americans as decent human beings. They need to be treated like expendable pieces of scum.

You won’t get anywhere treating Joe Biden like that. He can just use his power to avoid unpleasantness.

You can get somewhere treating every single US citizen living inside the M25 around London, every single US citizen living in Paris, Berlin, Vienna, Rome etc like a piece of dog turd on your shoe’s heel.

It won’t have an effect in 1 week, but it will have a great effect in 3 years.

Stop inviting US diplomats to official functions. Make it quite clear you are inviting everyone else but they are now lepers.

Stop letting US financiers buy up European assets.

Stop buying US military hardware and buy elsewhere.

Just treat Americans the way they treated others for decades.

With contempt, with disdain and with the implacable belief that they are inferior, genetically defective piles of junk.

Oh, and if Poles and Ukrainians refuse to cooperate, treat them the same way too.
Dr. George W Oprisko on April 11, 2021 · at 3:42 pm EST/EDT

Dimitry Orlov, a Russian engineer who emigrated to the US and back to Russia, claimed that only 35 electrical distribution stations need be destroyed to destroy the US electrical system and leave the entire USA without electrlcal power for months.

This could be accomplished with Kalibr Missiles
Anonymous on April 11, 2021 · at 4:17 pm EST/EDT

“The US is spending billions to catch up technologically, and the window of Russian supremacy may only last for two or three years at most. Russia can be expected to reach the peak technological advantage over NATO in late 2021 after the S-500 system has been fully deployed.”

Like other people here, I was struck by this assertion.

Is this correct?

Andrei Martyanov says that Russia is significantly ahead of the USA in terms of specific technologies like air defense, electronic warfare, and hypersonics.

Can someone like Saker clarify this concern?
Perun on April 11, 2021 · at 4:45 pm EST/EDT

I am surprised that no one has brought up an asymmetrical response that might strike to the heart of the matter… Disable the electricity grid in Israel. The US and Israeli administrations would recognize the source of the outage but for the broader population, it would not be an obvious attack. If they don’t connect the dots, disable the electricity grid in another country.

Think about how long the power outage was in the US north east and Canada in 2002 and the chaos that caused.
Nussiminen on April 11, 2021 · at 5:00 pm EST/EDT

”Biden was halfway through his talk when suddenly the microphone, cameras, and lights were turned off and Putin and all of the media walked out leaving Biden humiliated. Something similar happened to Biden in China a few months later.”

Haha, a most appropriate display of the respect he richly deserves 10 years later as well. Putin is a statesman; Biden is a слабоумная помойка.
Chris Cosmos on April 11, 2021 · at 5:10 pm EST/EDT

I see no indication that Russia will attack any US/NATO targets unless they are directly involved in an invasion of the Dombass. If any targets are attacked that would galvanize the US public to dramatically support war everywhere against Russia particularly those who now oppose Biden. You don’t want to infuriate the American public–I’m the Russian leadership class understands this. It is best to let corrupt NATO/EU/Washington stew in its own juices and just meet immediate threats on a defensive basis. If the Ukraine military launches an attack the response can be a counter-attack destroying all military Ukie military assets east of the Dneiper to create a semi-permanent demilitarized buffer zone patrolled by some multi-national UN force.
Ann Watson on April 11, 2021 · at 5:16 pm EST/EDT

David this is a fantastic article – its so well written and easy to read and goes step by step – I’m not convinced Russia will strike first – in fact I only know the Russia to wait and avoid – I wasn’t watching when they ‘invaded’ Georgia – so I’m not familiar with that side of Russia – The greatest thing I ever saw them do was the Crimea save. That was chess…without a bullet.

I hope for the same for this encounter. And thanks so much for the story about the lights and media shutting down on that lizard Biden
Marina Braun on April 11, 2021 · at 8:39 pm EST/EDT

It is ridiculous to suggest that someone (be it the oligarchs or whoever) handpicked Putin to replace Eltsyn. The fact that Putin is a former high-ranking KGB officer still sends shivers down the Empire’s rulers’ spines. Remember what Hillary said about a KGB officer not having a soul? Who is their right mind (even it they truly believed he would do the dirty work for them) would do this?! Why would they think that way, in the first place?! There is plenty of evidence that Eltsyn was quietly “dethroned” by a group of patriotic officers. Those who can read Russian might find the following information illuminating. Those who can’t, might run a Google translation. Trust me, it’s worth it. (Below are links to two very interesting pieces)

http://xn--h1akeme.ru-an.info/%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8/%D1%83-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8F-%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B2%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C-%D0%B2%D0%B5%D0%B6%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%BE-%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%BD%D1%8F%D0%BB%D0%B8-%D0%B2-1999-%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%83/

https://vk.com/wall54802502_276638
- Pamela on April 12, 2021 · at 12:38 am EST/EDT
  
  What is astonishing to me is the degree of contradiction such a view holds. Those holding it are just going on an assumption that because [a] there were a lot of Americans around in varous positions at the time in Russia, and [b] they put Yeltsin in as President, then they “of course” also put Putin in.
  
  It disregards a couple of things.
  
  One is, there is somewhere, and I regret I cannot now find the link, but I did read, the interview with an American Army Intelligence Major, who said that during the 1990’s they were investigating lots of people in Russia for future “usefulness” and a file on Putin said one word. “Incorruptible”.
  
  When Putin was made PM, he took on the American backed terrorists destroying Chechnya and Dagestan, with a view to moving north and splitting Russia in two, and taking Siberia. And he destroyed them.
  
  Why do they think the people who put a malleable, drunkard in Power would turn around and put an incorruptible man who busted one of their biggest schemes apart, in Power???
  
  Logic. Why is it so rarely used.
  
  However, it does seem to come from that inability of so many people of Oceania, especially America, to accept that Russians are a clever, well educated people who mostly know what they are doing.
  
  If they get a strong, patriotic, intelligent and superlative political animal into power who takes on America and is beating it — why, it just HAS to be because America kindly found him and put him there.
  
  Bah!!
  - Nussiminen on April 12, 2021 · at 11:57 am EST/EDT
    
    Well said, Pamela. My comments inserted below.
    
    ”Those holding it are just going on an assumption that because [a] there were a lot of Americans around in varous positions at the time in Russia, and [b] they put Yeltsin in as President, then they ’of course’ also put Putin in.”
    
    Yes and an even worse, 100% unfounded, conclusion is the ”corollary” that since Putin’s ascendancy must have been a Western deliberation, it swiftly also proves that Russia isn’t any better off than under merciless Western imperial rape.
    
    ”Why do they think the people who put a malleable, drunkard in Power would turn around and put an incorruptible man who busted one of their biggest schemes apart, in Power???”
    
    Essentially, I think this one boils down to ”sour grapes”. They are unhappy about Putin’s track record of incredible success and the rock-solid popular support he has at home and abroad. My experience is that this view is most widespread among the West’s Imperial Left.
    
    ”However, it does seem to come from that inability of so many people of Oceania, especially America, to accept that Russians are a clever, well educated people who mostly know what they are doing.”
    
    Agreed. Evidently, it’s bad for their self-esteem having to admit that their ”unsophisticated Mongol brutes” are quite able to outperform them in areas that really matter (LGBTQ++ does not count).
    
    ”If they get a strong, patriotic, intelligent and superlative political animal into power who takes on America and is beating it — why, it just HAS to be because America kindly found him and put him there.”
    
    Total rubbish, but as a backhanded compliment to people holding such a ridiculous view I should feel inclined to say that ”next time, be sure not to pick anybody who strikes you as ”incorruptible”. And bring some extraordinary bribes too.
    
    Analny Navalny — what a joke.
- William Edward Kierath on April 12, 2021 · at 1:01 am EST/EDT
  
  As an Australian far away from any source of information except reading articles from wherever I can get them this is what I found……….
  An Article some while ago pointed out the stepping down of Yeltzin was a strategic move and planned? The planning it appears included Roman Abramovich of Chelsea fame (for whatever merit that may have had?) but the cunning lay in the timing of mid-Winter and under the Constitution an Election had to take place in 3 months, when the Election wasn’t due for approximately 6 months time?
  This according to the article was to catch off guard those (Presumably the US oriented cabal) who had their preferred Candidate ready to roll when the Campaigning weather improved. However they were off-footed and as President during the 3 month period Russians got to know him as short as the time was and as little as he could display.
  But in any event it was successful and the World can be thankful!
- Anonymous on April 12, 2021 · at 11:37 am EST/EDT
  
  Жељко из Крајине,
  
  I quite agree that Putin was “hand picked”, but it was certainly not by the corrupt drunkard Yeltsin (and his entourage and enveloping oligarchs).
  
  In the period preceeding his dethronment three big processes occured:
  – total economic breakdown and robbery of the national wealth by a very small group of people with dual and triple citizenship;
  – an attempt to further errode the country by separating the muslim inhabited regions in the Caucases through covert actions, financing and support of the US/UK/EU/anglozionist secret services. This being supported by Yeltsin et al by the halt/start tactics, indicriminate use of force and bungling;
  – the attack of NATO on Yugoslavia, with the total breakdown of the international legal system, in spite of opposition by two permanent members if the UN SC.
  
  In the summer of the 1999 the world was on the verge of WW III. At that moment Russia was not prepared technologically, militarily and economically to take on the combined power of NATO. Thus, it told the Yugoslav army to back down.
  
  Which of those three events provided the trigger is something history will reveal in the future. But serious people in the security and government of Russia told Yeltsin “it us time for you to retire”.
  
  22 years later, the economy has been revived, the military has been reorganized and technologically completely upgraded, the international situation has dramatically changed.
  
  And we are again in a similar situation as in 1999. But not the same.
  
  And we face again WW III.
  
  Will the anglozionists realise the changed circumstances
  
  I doubt it. They are so full of hubris, blind and deaf.
  - MagdaTam on April 13, 2021 · at 9:43 am EST/EDT
    
    “In the summer of the 1999 the world was on the verge of WW III.”
    
    Perhaps a more “correct” rendition would read:
    
    In the summer and autumn of 1999 some of the opponents were engaged in some activities which they expected to be “interpreted” by others that “the world was on the edge of WW III.”
    
    These activities included but were not restricted to bombing of apartment blocks in Buynansk, Moscow and Volgodonsk in September 1999.
    
    The “target audience” did not “interpret” these activities as indicating that “the world was on the edge of WW III”, but assessed that these activities afforded opportunities.
    
    Shortly there after Mr. Alexander Litvinenko and Mr. Yuri Felshtinky “wrote” a book entitled Blowing up Russia attempting to accuse the FSB of a false flag and assigning responsibility for the bombings to the FSB.
    
    One of the candidates in the Presidential election of December 1999 was formerly the head of the FSB – Mr. Vladimir Putin.
    
    Today a kindle edition of Blowing up Russia can be downloaded for free from Amazon.com. if you agree to subscribe to kindleunlimited.
    
    Mr. Alexander Litvinenko also attempted to blame the death of his former employer Mr. Berezhovsky on the FSB.
    
    However some of his contacts with a preferance for keeping low profiles, remembered the zek based saying that “Sharks should not attack other sharks unless the other shark threatens the environment for all sharks.”
    
    Mr. Litvinenko was poisoned to slow death with the benefit of television coverage, and some of his contacts perceived that Mr. Litvinenko could help the cause even in death, and so they attempted to blame his poisoning on the FSB and Mr. Putin, which some assess was partly due to ensure the continuing largesse of some former residents of the Soviet Union in financial matters.
- Jon on April 12, 2021 · at 12:03 pm EST/EDT
  
  A few people have mentioned that Mr. Putin was a ‘high ranking KGB officer.’ But I believe he was a colonel in the E. German field office of the KGB’s highest clearance intelligence bureau. He had access to the most sensitive information and knew a lot about what Russia’s adversaries were up to, but that doesn’t mean he was a decision maker. GHW Bush was much higher up in the CIA than Putin was in the KGB. Is this right?
Moses on April 12, 2021 · at 1:45 am EST/EDT

I love military analysts! Everything is so simple, linear and straightforward until the shooting begins.

In reality, things are far more complex and greatly influenced by trivial things. The outcome: very uncertain.

IMO, Putin is too sensible and cares too much for Russia to start a fire that could consume everything and everyone.
Maskazer on April 12, 2021 · at 2:03 am EST/EDT

For Russia, China and Iran defeating a LGBT-Nato adversary should not be so difficult, using conventional weapons, only.
- sean the leprechaun on April 12, 2021 · at 4:41 pm EST/EDT
  
  Well if Russia deploys it’s feared (it’s been on the books ,but in the closet) Thong, Bong and Dong Rainbow Rocket Launchers, NATO will have trouble figuring if their holes, are to be reemed, punched, or bored out.
  
  Cheers, M
Rhisiart Gwilym on April 12, 2021 · at 4:44 am EST/EDT

When reading analyses such as this one, I always look for one question, which seems to come up rarely. It’s this: Since there must be some brass at least in the Pentagon who have practical, sane understanding of just how vulnerable the US and its military forces are now, and how fundamentally incapable they are of actually delivering decisive victory to the US in any war far from its borders, would they actually *allow* the civilian lunatics pulling the POTUS-puppet’s strings to initiate any action that would trigger a major war?

Knowing that they would be defeated, and knowing that they can’t protect their ‘assets’, nor can they at the moment defend the US homeland effectively, wouldn’t you expect some junta of the US military to – at the very least – make it quietly clear to the string-pullers that if they push this situation too close to the brink, they will end up provoking a palace coup by the military, and they themselves will be arrested, or simply killed. You know, those sudden heart attacks which seem to happen to order these days, at crucial moments; if not just a heavy-calibre slug to the head.

I suspect that this consideration must have been growing in Pentagon circles for some time, whenever they decide to speak in deep secrecy about the real situation they face.

That’s assuming that the nitty-gritty, nuts and bolts practical military people are still sane in enough numbers, of course, and haven’t fallen victim to the cloud-cuckoo-land lunacy nurtured within the fink tanks.
- Jon on April 12, 2021 · at 11:31 am EST/EDT
  
  I seem to remember a purge under the Obama administration of top Pentagon brass. I don’t think there are any Smedley Butlers left
N.Mahkno on April 12, 2021 · at 6:39 am EST/EDT

Hello,

Have enjoyed reading the enormous body of analysis set out below, and have learned a great deal.

However, one tree that seems to be overlooked in the vista of this huge forest, is Ukrainian military morale. It seems that there are still Ukro-Nazi units who might be highly motivated (by hate) but relatively inefficient in battle, whereas the bulk of the Ukrainian army might be more militarily capable, but, crucially remain insufficiently motivated to march to annihilation.

Morale is all in warfare, and examples of efficient armies who are defeated because of a lack of it are abundant- from Sassanid Persia’s defeat by the Muslims, right up to France’s defeat in WW2.

I am sure that many of the more apolitical Ukrainian soldiers must, by now, be aware that they are to be nothing more than Anglo-Zio cannon-fodder, and will realise that their lives will be wasted for nothing?
Siberian Tiger on April 12, 2021 · at 8:50 am EST/EDT

About the so-called hand-picked, planting of Putin by Western handlers, when I read that, I was not altogether surprised by the idea. Politics is complicated, and why I tend to steer clear, but this is something that could do with more light thrown on it by Saker.

The establishing of the KGB was a continuation of western-backed methods, and initially anyway, included a varied type of person. Any study of history will validate this. Russian people can be exceedingly tough, but capable of immense good,

That is the dilemma, the possibility for aggression through necessity. Even Putin is angry.
What kind of influences, strategies, moment for de-escalation will help, also, what nature of understanding ?
Marina Braun on April 12, 2021 · at 2:53 pm EST/EDT

Responding to one of the comments: yes, before the collapse of the Soviet Union and the entire Warsaw organization, Putin was a KGB colonel in Germany (the GDR). But subsequently (in 1998) he was appointed to the position of the Head of the FSB. So the statement that he was a high-ranking intelligence officer is accurate.
Kevin Quinn on April 12, 2021 · at 8:27 pm EST/EDT

Ukraine is an amalgam of the USSR’s ‘victory’ annexations, benefitting from soviet largesse bestowed as a reward for the service of a generation of communist or Russian-leaning Ukrainians. After1992 those Germanophiles who had fled west with the Wehrmacht or were smuggled out by the Catholic Church as anti-communists in the 50’s, returned ‘home’ to the Ukraine they had tried to form under the Nazis.

If Russia wanted to do the world, and Europe, a favor it would announce its intention to restore the annexed territories to their proper owners in Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland, If nothing else it would upset the NATO/EU choir. A truncated, traditional Ukraine might better serve its purpose, governing and developing itself.

Russia needs to keep on pounding into Poland and the other places that suffered under the Nazis, that the Ukrainians, especially the Nazis among them, escaped unpunished. Their children have returned from the golden west to reclaim their black ‘birthright’. Again at the expense of their neighbors, That ‘national integrity’ they crow about, is land ‘stolen’ by the Soviets to make-up for war losses. But they won’t give it back.
- MagdaTam on April 13, 2021 · at 6:34 am EST/EDT
  
  RE Kevin Quinn on April 12, 2021 · at 8:27 pm EST/EDT
  
  “If Russia wanted to do the world, and Europe, a favor.it would announce its intention to restore the annexed territories to their proper owners in Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland “
  
  Perhaps you are unaware of some of the guiding principles and policies in respect of the “near abroad” as part of the ongoing process of the transcendence of the Soviet Union by the Russian Federation.
  
  Among the guiding principles was a cancellation of resort to “colonialism” and a return of territories to their inhabitants including their representatives, since the methods adopted by the Treaty of Versailles had led to extensive ethnic cleansing and war.
  
  It was assessed that a return of territories to their inhabitants would cause some residual resentment but the half-lives of residual resentment afforded more opportunities and less challenges than the status quo.
  
  In respect of Kaliningrad, in 1992 Lithuania and some of its associates sought discussions to buy the territory of Kaliningrad. Such notions were not deemed appropriate by the Lithuanian’s counter-party.
  
  In respect of Ukraine and Crimea a contractual relationship was entered into by the Russian Federation and Ukraine, which a subsequent Ukrainian regime attempted to nullify in 2014.
  
  In respect of Crimea their inhabitants and their representatives subsequently voted to join the Russian Federation and this was accepted by the inhabitants and representatives of the Russian Federation by a referendum.
  
  This was encouraged by some of the inhabitants and representaives of Ukraine being complicit in a coup and contingent deaths in 2014 with representatives of “The United States of America” and some of its associates.
Vanzamoto on April 13, 2021 · at 12:15 am EST/EDT

Russia and any other so called Great Power should not attempt war with The Empire… The Empire is crumbling… instead of giving at an excuse to Unify and consolodiate its strengths, every option at their disposal should be brought to bear on the divisions destroying the empire.

Let it fall and then have a new world of justice and cooperation built in its stead.

Dont underestimate its power too. it is a great beast that should be respected as well.

Comrade Vanzamoto