By Nat South for the Saker Blog
This is part of a series on air missions carried in proximity to Russian borders, (NATO members and Sweden), principally intelligence-gathering missions, supported by air tankers. Flights tracked were mostly either over the waters of the Baltic, Black Seas and more rarely, Barents Seas.
The latest briefing follows on an article written back in May 2020, [1] on my blog with several visuals included. This time, I have attached graphs showing an overview of the situation, as seen and reported by social media aircraft tracking accounts.
All in all, a total of at least 69 flights were noted by social media aircraft tracking accounts for January 2021 alone, account for 20 days in the month. This list is not exhaustive and there may be more flights than publicly available on aircraft tracking sites, notably, flights in the Arctic and over the Northern Pacific. However, it must be noted that the Russian Arctic borders as well as over the Sea of Japan and Russia’s Far East (Western Pacific) aren’t very well tracked by aircraft tracking sites and as such data is sparse and difficult to obtain.
The data compiled for the graphs only includes aircraft carrying out intelligence gathering missions, along with some of the supporting air refuelling tankers. This list does not fighters, transport or bombers.
NATO stated that aircraft were scrambled around 350 times [2] for “Russian jets”. This means transport, fighters ( especially those transiting to and fro Kaliningrad to St Petersburg) and also bombers. NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu stated that “In recent years, we have seen an increased level of Russian military air activity close to the Alliance’s borders. The figure mentioned for 2019 was 290 times, (82% difference).
Likewise, the Russian MoD also reported increased activities close to Russian borders, and gave figures during briefings for this back in March and June 2020. “NATO’s military activity near our borders increases every year. The Alliance’s land and sea units are being built up. NATO membership is expanding. The US global missile defense system is being deployed.” Defence Minister Shoigu, 25 March 2020.
The Russian MoD later reported in November 2020, that Radio-Technical Troops (RTT) of the Russian Aerospace Forces detected and tracked “approximately 2,900 combat aviation aircraft and more than 1,100 reconnaissance aircraft,” in 2020. TASS [3] [4].
Russian quick reaction alert (QRA) fighter aircraft were scrambled over 170 times (*) in 2020 to intercept foreign aircraft near Russia’s borders. How many of these were US and NATO aircraft is not known though. However, a glimpse of the action and activities can regularly viewed on social media aircraft tracking sites. Previously I compiled the statistics provided by the Russian MoD and Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper, as a regular infographic, to obtain an total overview of the figures for 2020, [5], however the consistency of the data wasn’t regular several times, so the figures are below those cited by Lieutenant-General Andrei Yudin in November. USA military intelligence gathering aircraft have not only kept tabs on the Russian military but are frequently keeping tracks on Chinese, Iranian, North Korea’s various military units and activities. Curiously, very recently, a couple of RC-135, “Rivet Joint” have kept watch on Cuba, in addition to several flights off Venezuela in the past years.
As can seen from the above graphs, the Kaliningrad region gets put under an intense spotlight almost on a daily basis, accounting of at least 39% of intelligence-gathering and monitoring flights by NATO members (and Swedish too, since they seem to be coordinated) along Russian borders. Note: I wrote more specifically about the relevance and importance of region in a previous blog article [1]. The Black Sea region was divided up in segments, (Crimea and Southern Russia FIRs, in order to highlight the types of movements of flights. Noticeably, the Global Hawk drone deployed the farthest and the greatest extent, (from Donbass, right across to Georgia), while air refuelling tankers tended to stay in one area, just in the outer limits of the Crimea FIR.
Part of the air activity in late January was linked to the deployment of two US Navy destroyers, the ‘USS Donald Cook’ and the ‘USS Porter’, in which they “conducted a multi-domain maritime operation with NATO AWACS & US Navy P-8A aircraft. [6]To sum up, in recent years, both NATO and the Russian MoD report increased military activities along their borders, yet the activities carried by NATO are significantly more intensive due to the probing nature of intelligence-gathering missions and the high frequency of such missions alone. It is highly doubtful that Russia airforces would endeavour or try to carry out anyway near the level of missions, the way that they are have been undertaken by NATO members, the US and its partners around Russia. (*) This number is significantly less than what NATO reports to have done itself in response to Russian military flights, (350), and reflects the nature of intercepts, principally in response to intelligence-gathering missions.
Types of aircraft
Sweden- Gulfstream S102B Korpen (GIV) electronic intelligence (ELINT), heavily-modified Gulfstream business jet.
USA / UK operators- RC-135 Rivet Joint signals intelligence reconnaissance aircraft
USA / NATO operators- E-3 AWACS airborne surveillanceUSA (UK operators)- USN Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime interdiction, anti-submarine warfare (ASW), anti-surface warfare (ASUW).
UK- Sentinel R-1 long-range, battlefield-intelligence, target-imaging and tracking radar.
US Army- Beechcraft RC-12 Guardrail is an airborne signals intelligence collection platform SIGINT.
KC-135R – The mainstay of the USAF air refuelling capability.Denmark – Challenger 604 Surveillance and maritime patrol.
LINKS
[1] https://natsouth.livejournal.com/15087.html
[b] https://natsouth.livejournal.com/15196.html
[2] https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/correction-bc-eu-nato-russian-jets-story-75138277
[3] TASS https://tass.com/defense/1241809
[4]TASS https://tass.com/defense/1228699
[5]https://natsouth.livejournal.com/16616.html
[6] Tweet https://twitter.com/USNavyEurope/status/1354857706155356170
Keep poking that bear, boys.
Yee-hah!
That’s right. To roar with rage and move. To solve some things. We are waiting and training. But first to get rid of Valdai managers and international botox fraudster.
White Whale
Even “neutral” Sweden is taking part. It is today as “neutral” as it was during the two world wars, selling all that iron ore to Germany, knowing perfectly well it would be used for armaments.
I thought the west wanted to fight against climate change (LOL).
It seems climate is no that important when it comes to fly aircrafts around Russia.
Right at this moment, it seems that Russia has momentarily gained the upper hand against “global warming”.
As indeed has the USA.
Ah, you worry too much! The US has done this for ages, that is typical for degenerate imperialistic nations or empires, the Romans did it (not in Gulfstreams though) but thoroughly observing the border regions bordering a potential deadly adversary. Even Russia does it once in a while, though I think it is mostly that they get a few kicks in the Kremlin when the whole NATO goes into semi panic mode. Great fun!
Remember when 3 Bears (TU 95) took a Channel trip, they were almost on Defcon 2, sissies. BTW. the Tu 95 is remarkable by the noise it makes, maybe they were trying to wake the Brits up? Well it was an awakening , was it not?
Ah, the “Donald Duck” is at sea again presumably with a new crew, since their last experience with Russian ECM warfare in the Black Sea.
Though I do admit it is unfortunate that Russia has such a bunch of useless neighbors, Georgia, Ukraine (sigh), Poland (double sigh) they should all immigrate to Kansas, and most of the Stans.
But at least us in Sweden are predictably useless if that is a comfort.
Cheer up it will be spring in a minute, the girls will wear light summer dresses and hopefully the café’s will be open.
Do social media aircraft tracking accounts or any other surveillance systems operate independently from planes with high invisibility functioning structural modifications, or are these only for specific uses ?
I don’t understand the question, but my answer might shed some light on your question.
Social media accounts track aircraft that have Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) ADS-B system active. Other surveillance systems (civilian ATC) use radar and ADS, whereas the military have their own radar and electronic systems, which might spot stealth planes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_dependent_surveillance-broadcast
If stealth planes activate their ADS-B, then invariably they ain’t gonna stealth anymore.
As ATC predominately use ADS-B, whereas the Russian military tend not to use ADS-B in proximity to NATO controlled areas, hence NATO whines about the Russian planes and having to intercept to help ATC out.
This is a fair point, by not having ADS-B activated, the Russian is giving NATO the run around.
NatSouth.
If I recall, this is yet another tit4tat.
Can’t remember the finer details but I recall Putin giving an answer to this issue, possibly in one of the valdai sessions.
From what I understood, NATO is the equivalent of a neighbor who habitually stands on ladder to look into your yard. And objects when you grow a hedge inside your fence line.
One of the military minded here might have a more technically correct explanation.
I like the analogy to the neighbour and fence and I would add that it is a bitter and intolerant neigbour. But, I wouldn’t personally describe it as tit for tat, because the US and NATO actions are disproportionate, more intense and more regular in nature compared to Russian responses, which are fairly muted and restrained.