I just have listened to a very interesting interview of a Russian military expert named Vladilav Shurygin. For the Russian speakers I am posting it below:
Now for those of you who do not speak Russian, I want to summarize Shurygin’s main hypothesis: that the US will use a “two-phase” approach to Iran very similar to the one it used on Iraq:
a) The first phase would involve a massive air and missile assault on Iran to basically “bomb it back to the stone age” to use James Baker’s expression. And just like after the first Gulf War it would be followed by a decade of so of crippling sanctions destined to further push Iran into poverty and chaos.
b) The second phase would, just as was the case in Iraq, involve a land invasion of a devastated, demoralized and economically crippled Iran, with the purpose of imposing a new occupation regime.
That is an interesting hypothesis, but it is based on several highly speculative assumptions.
First, this assumes that like Iraq in 1991 Iran would not seriously fight back. Remember, Saddam did not send his armored divisions into Saudi Arabia even though he could have done so which would have left very few options to the US other than using nuclear weapons to rescue the 82nd AB and prevent Saddam from overrunning the Saudi ports. If Iran is really cornered, it could strike out at every Gulf state with absolutely devastating consequences not only for the region, but the entire world economy,
The second hypothesis is that the UNSC and the rest of the planet would support the USA. After is invasion of Kuwait Saddam was highly unpopular and both Russia and China were rather in disarray in 1991. Nowadays, I very much doubt that the international community would stand by another decade of genocidal sanctions against another Gulf state.
Third, this hypothesis assumes that Iran is just as “invadible” as Iraq, but one look at a demographic and economic report and map of Iran will tell you that Iran is a full order of magnitude tougher to crack than Iraq.
Fourth, Iraq had no allies. At the very least, Iran can count on Hezbollah and the various Shia parties in Iraq who have all unambiguously and repeatedly indicated that they would not stand by an attack on Iran and that they would do their duty.
Lastly, while at least initially the Iraqi Shia and the Iraqi Kurds were happy to see Saddam overthrown, the Iranian Kurds, Arabs, Azeris or Sunnis do not have the potential, or even desire, to turn into a 5th column for an invading US force.
And yet, Shurygin is not saying that this plan is doable or even that it makes sense. All he is saying is that the US leaders might contemplate such a two-staged “final solution” to Iran’s problem. And here I must agree.
I have a very low opinion of the intelligence and education of the US leaders and I know how easily they like to delude themselves into believing that there is a simple solution to any problem. Add to this that the USA is basically run by the Zionist lobby which is very correctly referred to as composed of “Israel Firsters” i.e., folks who will sacrifice the USA without any hesitation for the presumed interests of Israel, and Shurygin’s hypothesis becomes disturbingly credible, no?
The Saker
Dear Saker,
As I have mentioned many times in the past, i will say it again: There won’t be any war on Iran. Never.
In contrast, the ugly Empire has put all its efforts in crushing Syria as a country and a conduit to Hizbullah. In opinion, they failed miserably so far and i believe that they are hedging their bets and setting the stage [with more powerful sanctions and phoney IAEA reports…] for full negotiations with Iran….which will include as a primary item, [ the situation in Syria]…
On the other hand, I see that the ugliest Empire, having digested its loss in Syria, will turn around with a vengeance on Lebanon…and by that I mean Hizbullah, hoping to scuttle the actual Government and put in Place a New Pro-Empire Government in Lebanon, hell-bent against Hezbollah…., hence the Resistance will find itself in a situation whereby they will have to make very strong preventive measures to negate the ugly Empire any successes in Lebanon, to counter their losses in Syria….
For those worried about our Valiant Resistance in Lebanon…, there is absolutely no fear whatsoever…Hizbullah has a huge spare capacity that could last him a decade or two…, and tens of thousands of guerrillas….and a lot of contingency planning…Fear No More….because Huge Surprises for the ugly Empire are in waiting!
I see a Hot summer ahead in Lebanon, continued skirmishes in Syria for a long time to come…, and No War whatsoever on Iran.
My 2 cents….
Best,
Joe
@Joe: Thanks for your always insightful comments and for your upbeat assessment of the situation of the Resistance. However, and will all due respect, I have to disagree with you on Iran. Let me give you two arguments for that:
a) we ALREADY almost had a war with Iran in 2007. Now we know that for a fact. And Cheney pretty much confessed to that. Then remember Mike Mullen’s trip to Israel where he told them “not on my watch”? At that time I was observing all the indicators and warnings showing that an attack was imminent. If some forces inside the US “deep state” pulled us back from the brink of war then, does that not indicate that at the very least such a war is possible?
b) the USA and Israel are with time becoming prisoners of their own propaganda. with each ‘crisis’ the raise the stakes more and more and more and more, and they make promises to the Zionists and the ziomedia-brainwashed US population about how they will strike Iran unless Iran caves in. Just look at the absolutely INSANE statement of US politicians, in particular Republicans, during the current political debates.
Rationally, there should never be an attack on Iran. But that is *rationally*. Who could have guess that the Israelis would attack in 2006? That the Georgians would attack in 2008? This empire is NOT rational, and neither are its Zionist overlords.
Let me also tell you that: Americans are used to have a war every few years or so. and just narcotraffickers, pedophiles, hackers and Black rapists do not scare the US public enough – they need their big fix of terror-induced adrenaline rush every couple of years or so to feel good about themselves. And the fact that the US just got freshly beat up and defeated in Iraq, Somalia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Lebanon does not make them less dangerous, it makes them MORE dangerous. Remember how to good old American icon Ronald Regan invaded Grenada just to feel good again after running way from Lebanon? The invasion of Grenada was one of the worst military operation in this history of warfare, but more medals were handed out after it than the total number of participants!
The USA is a big juggernaut with the brains of a turtle, and it always ends up doing the one thing it likes to do: fight wars.
Take a look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_United_States_military_operations
And you tell me that the country which most successfully and openly has defied the USA will never be attacked?
As a professional military analyst with formerly high level clearance and involvement in what is called “strategic analysis” I can tell you that I know of no case where a country would fully build up its capabilities to go to war, would engage in a massive psyop campaign to justify a war, and would federate its entire political elites into supporting a war only to then say “nah, we did not mean it, we were just kidding, trying to scare you, ha ha!” and back down. Never happens. Never.
All the Israelis need to do is plant a few mines with their subs in the Strait of Hormuz or fire a single torpedo at a US ship, and the fireworks will start. In theory, one single Israeli naval captain could start it all. Or one fed up Iranian one, for that matter.
Frankly, its a miracle that a war has not already begun…
Cheers,
The Saker
Dear Saker,
Your analysis is well reasoned, solid and very hard to contradict given the historical record, especially of the last few decades and more precisely the barbaric inside Job of 9/11…
But I think that there are more issues at play with Iran than the loud daily rhetoric, which lead me to believe that war will be avoided….?
I guess we will all revisit the issue soon, if not this summer, but surely next year, after the US elections, and we will find out.
Best,
Joe