Fabio Reis Vianna for The Saker Blog
When U.S. President Donald Trump announced on December 2 the taxation of Brazilian and Argentine steel, restoring the immediate effect of the “tariffs on all steel and aluminum sent to the United States by these countries,” the amateur members of Bolsonaro´s government were unable to hide their disbelief in their faces of disappointment.
Even with reality falling on their heads, the blindness of the upper echelons of the government regarding the current geopolitical moment is so great that the only character who has perhaps given any hint of understanding was Vice President General Hamilton Mourão, by drawing a parallel between what happened and what, according to his words, he would say about a “characteristic of this geopolitical tension that we are experiencing, which generates protectionism (and) is an anti-cyclical movement in relation to globalization.
Even if his words make sense, what seems to escape the understanding of the vice-president of the Republic and the members of the current government as a whole is the deepest reality of the multipolar world that has been gradually unveiling itself since the beginning of the new century and that, according to the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro(UFRJ) professor José Luís Fiori, intensified between the years 2012 and 2013 with the election of Vladimir Putin and the arrival to power of Xi Jinping.
It should be noted, however, that this multipolar world misunderstood by the strategists of the current Brazilian government (if they exist…), is in no way accepted by the current hegemonic power.
The comfortable hegemony in a unipolar world, conquered by the United States since the collapse of the Soviet Union, is now challenged by new actors that, as a consequence, tension and intensify interstate competition.
Demonstrating the total mismatch of the current Brazilian government with the reality of the international system at the beginning of the 21st century, the reaction of members of the team of the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, to Trump’s words is symptomatic.
In the words of one of Guedes’ assistants, “Trump has always been clear in saying that Brazil is very closed. You need something like: ‘Brazil has come up with a better plan for American companies, so I’m going to go back on the decision to raise the rates'”.
In the logic, at the very least, naive of Mr. Guedes’ team, it would therefore suffice to present the US authorities with a well-developed plan for trade opening, and then Trump would retreat.
The concrete fact is that the Brazilian government seems lost and without understanding the new configuration of the multipolar world order, not being aware of the depth of the fierce interstate competition between what, in the words of Professor Fiori, would be “the three great powers fighting for global power at the beginning of the 21st century.
The last meeting of Brics, held in Brasilia in November, was symptomatic of the unpreparedness of the Brazilian authorities in dealing with the current scenario of global dispute.
Symptomatic and worrying, because the events that permeated that summit and the reaction (or non-reaction) of guest presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin to those events demonstrated the subtlety and care with which Russia and China sought to place themselves in this “minefield” that is South America today. A territory so complex and essential to their expansionist interests.
Just three days before the Brics meeting began on Nov. 10, a coup d’état took place in Bolivia, one of the few countries in the region that still had a strategic relationship with the Eurasian axis, and especially Russia, which had planned with former ousted president Evo Morales the construction of a sophisticated nuclear plant in the Bolivian altiplano, as well as plans for lithium exploration and the development of local agriculture. The documents relating to the ambitious projects had been signed in July when Morales made a diplomatic visit to Moscow.
This could be mere coincidence, if the release of former President Lula had not occurred just two days earlier, on November 8.
In addition to being the biggest opponent of Jair Bolsonaro’s far-right government, Lula is directly responsible for the creation and success of Brics and the strengthening of relations among South American nations.
In short, former President Lula, besides remaining very popular among the less favored classes in Brazil, which automatically turns him into a threat, was directly responsible for raising the country to the status of a global player beyond its region and at the same time for articulating, from Brics, a more consistent entry of the Eurasian powers in the South American scenario.
On 13 November, the official opening of the Brics summit took place in the presence of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi and Cyril Ramaphosa, who were received at the Itamaraty Palace by President Bolsonaro.
On the morning of that same day, November 13, the Venezuelan embassy in Brasilia would be invaded by a group linked to self-proclaimed President Juan Guaidó. This would somehow overshadow the beginning of the Brics summit.
In Brazil, some more hasty analysts even suggested that that invasion would have the tentacles of fundamentalist sectors of Bolsonaro´s government installed in the Brazilian chancellery, headed by the unbelievable Minister Ernesto Araújo.
However, when connecting the dots, we could suppose that there would be some connection between the events that occurred during that hectic month of November, even if this connection does not necessarily follow a linear logic or if the absence of one of the events annulled the occurrence of another.
From the perspective of the dispute for global power between competing states – which often takes off from economic logic itself – the events of November would make sense if looked at in a systemic way.
The new national security strategy of the United States – announced on December 18, 2017 – would make official what had been happening in practice since the emerging Russia, China, India and even Lula’s Brazil began the expansionist onslaughts in Africa and Latin America, and intensified when Russia, in an unprecedented show of force, decided in 2015 to intervene in Syria, defining the course of the war. For the United States it was necessary to put a brake on that. Whatever the cost.
Therefore, both the “classic” and undisguised military coup in Bolivia, the invasion of the Venezuelan embassy and even Trump’s announcement of steel taxation would be a message and would have the same subliminal message: either you move away from our opponents and align yourselves with our strategy or you will suffer the consequences.
Brazil is now at a serious historical crossroads. One of the most delicate issues in the current scenario is the technological warfare (disguised as a trade war) involving the Chinese giant Huawei.
The most visible representation of the advancement of competition in what could be called the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the dispute over 5G technology has become one of the spearheads of the expansive forces that clash as power and influence disputes in the world system intensify.
After having already missed the opportunity to participate in important markets such as Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Taiwan, which closed their doors due to restrictions imposed by the Americans, the auction for the introduction of 5G technology in Brazil, originally scheduled for the year 2020, would be a golden opportunity for the Chinese to put into practice, and in a large and important market, all their know-how for the construction of a vast network of fifth generation mobile Internet.
As the Chinese Ambassador to Brazil, Yang Wanming, rightly said last November: “I am confident in the sense of cooperation between China and Brazil in 5G technology. Brazil will take into account the interest in the country’s development”.
The Chinese rationality expressed in Ambassador Wanming’s words would fit perfectly if we were living in a period of normality in international relations; but we are not, and the technological war that has the 5G prominence race as its backdrop hides the challenging moment of transition between long cycles of international politics. This is a moment in which the world power, no longer fully capable of exercising leadership in the world political system, finds itself challenged by one or more emerging powers.
This has been the case since when, around 1560, the hegemonic power of the time, Portugal, was challenged by Spain, who then took the lead in the newborn world system, to be challenged by the Netherlands and so on until the present day.
In the midst of the tug-of-war between the Chinese and Americans, Brazil will have no choice but to invent a good technical excuse and postpone the 5G auction until, probably, 2021. The National Agency of Telecommunications (Anatel) has already been rehearsing the postponement by claiming that the 5G network would interfere with the signal of open TV in rural areas, because the transmission is made by satellite dish.
In the end, the pressure that the brazilian government is probably suffering behind the scenes from the Trump administration makes us feel that the announcement of the taxing of brazilian steel via Twitter would have a retaliatory bias with regard specifically to the 5G issue. This possibility is even admitted by the unsuspected brazilian economist linked to the financial market André Perfeito.
The fact is that the Brics meeting revealed a much more docile and receptive Bolsonaro to the presence of Eurasian powers than one could have imagined. Facing a serious recession, the brazilian government had no choice but to take advantage of that moment to seek investments from Brics’ partners.
As old and experienced players on the global board, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping were able to position their pawns strategically from their arrival in Brasilia until the last minute on Brazilian soil.
Even with the not friendly invasion of the Venezuelan embassy (a strategic ally of Russia and China) on the day they would be received by Bolsonaro at the Itamaraty Palace, the not at all naive Eurasian heads of state skillfully did not comment on what had happened and tried to reconcile, throughout the summit, the convergent positions among all the partners.
The clear attempt to sabotage the meeting, in the end, only served to highlight the extreme care with which Xi and Putin sewed the treaties, trying to avoid displeasing Bolsonaro on delicate issues such as the Venezuelan issue – which he did until they accepted that the traditional parallel meeting with countries in the region would not occur.
This posture is in line with what Professor Alexander Zhebit of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) said about a fundamental characteristic of Brics since its creation. According to Zhebit, the elements of agreement would be essential for the maintenance of the internal harmony of the group. In this way, the differences would be smoothed out by the constant negotiation of common points.
Not by chance, in the final declaration of the meeting, besides the fact that the Venezuelan question was not touched, any mention of support for Iran (also a strategic Sino-Russian ally in the Eurasian context) was even avoided.
China and Russia are fully aware of the role of subservience to the United States that the Bolsonaro´s Government plays and, as good old players, have the wisdom to understand the relationship with Brazil as a long-term one.
Old countries know that diplomacy and patience live together, and in a way – as researcher Oliver Stuenkel rightly said – Xi and Putin, strategically, know that the more isolated Brazil is on the international scene, the more important they will be.
Fabio Reis Vianna, lives in Rio de Janeiro, is a bachelor of laws ( LL.B), writer and geopolitical analyst. He is currently a columnist in international politics for the printed version of the centennial brazilian newspaper Monitor Mercantil
Here is an interesting look at a recent visit to Latin America by Sergey Lavrov and what he accomplished:
https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2020/02/russian-diplomacy-in-latin-america.html
Russia is, indeed, playing in America’s backyard, an issue that must be causing great consternation in Washington which has taken an anti-Russia at all costs approach to the world of today.
Bolsonaro makes me think of a person trying to decide if he should get into one of the lifeboats or stay on the Titanic. “But they say it is unsinkable!” Yes, the big ship is listing but they are still playing music on the deck. His greed and arrogance will cause him to make the wrong choice.
Craig, your metaphor perfectly applies to Bolsonaro — and to all the stupid Brazilian elite behind him. But, the ‘wrong choice’ was made long before the US sponsored Parliamentary/Evangelical coup d’etat of 2016. They have already destroyed the country — in less than four years…
Bolsonaro like every Brazilian president before him needs to find a consumer for Brazil’s vast agriculture, mineral and, as of late, oil resources. When Lula assumed the Brazilian presidency in the year 2003 roughly 50% of Brazil’s Exports went to North America and Western Europe. Today, barely 30% of Brazil’s exports go to these countries and China alone accounts for almost as much in exports (28.1%), additionally, trade with with regional Latin American countries and other Asian markets such as South Korea or Japan have also grown substantially.
Bolsonaro himself is an ideologically blind buffoon who would love nothing more than to break with the multi-polar world and ally himself in some kind of US military alliance. But he is not all powerful in Brazil and economic realities have changed during the Lula and Dilma years. While it remains to be seen how the current Corona-virus epidemics will dampen China’s hunger for Brazil’s resources it has become too big to ignore for even the most right wing Brazilian government. So he needs to tread a fine line as he cannot afford to alienate the largest customer of Brazilian goods.
The Eurasian powers I think played well by keeping sensitive topics such as Venezuela or Iran out of the picture and focusing on commonalities at last year’s BRICS summit. With Argentina now having a moderate, left-leaning president and Chile’s neo-liberal establishment forced to concede a revision of its constitution, things do not look all that bad for multi-polarity in Latin America. Despite the blow that happened in Bolivia. One thing seems certain, the political fracturing of Latin American countries (some more pro US/others more neutral or openly opposed) will for now inhibit any deeper integration efforts on the continent, as envisioned by Lula, Chavez and Kirchner some 15 years ago.
Indeed. Losing the National Museum of Brazil to fire should kind of have been a warning. Then the Vale mining disaster. The ship was already falling apart at the rivets with no iceberg in sight.
Bolonsaro is a soldier; he’s only gong to be as good as the orders given to him, and, the orders are only going to be as good as the strategic plan allows. He was smart enough to not invade Venezuela as Trump’s brain trust may have wanted.
The other paratrooper next door did far better, but cut his own strategy and orders that were at once geopolitical in scope and humanitarian in vision. Not just lining a foxhole with gilt.
At greater fault is Roussef, who should have spent her time making sure what Lula built could stand on its own. Then, Lula should have done better, choosing successor(s) based on merit not political favours.
However, blaming leadership figureheads only goes so far. The mindset of ‘pillage’ never really matured into ‘nation build’; the Brazilian elites never stopped being leftover colonial aristocrats who couldn’t hack Portugal.
Bolsonaro do have wet dreams about war, any way.
The problem is he do not control the army. It is controlled by itself and the leader has no name.
Yes, Lula and his party are the right ones to blame about all this mess.
They did lost despite several warnings from everywhere.
The failure of Brazil, as it is with most Latin American countries, is their “colonial mentality” in which they think their prosperity is in exporting to colonizing nations be it the U.S.A., Russia, China, or Europe. Only when Latin America develops its own diversity in manufacturing, agriculture, finance, and economics such that it becomes self sufficient, not having to rely on nations outside their region to buy their exports is when they can become truly independent, and thus truly prosper as nations, and free people.
Expansion of the São Luís port to become the biggest deep water port in South America, sound familar? It should its part of the Israel-China “Silk-Road” to South America ( Sound familar it connects to the Port Ashdod deep-water port in Israel )
$100 Billion USD pledged to Brazil by China for infrastructure
https://www.beltandroad.news/2020/02/16/china-wants-food-brazil-pays-the-price/
Omission is what is fascinating, an entire article about Bolsonaro and not one mention of the ‘environment’, not even the comments so far,
It goes to show you the selective amnesia designed into the debate, the war is between Cargill, and a few large Chinese company’s selling cattle. USA AG versus Chinese AG, either way the Amazonia Loses.
Why the beef on beef? IMHO its because arabs/persians eat beef and not pork, thus rather than having empty ships returning passage, why not fill them with cattle for the MENA market. Brilliant
“Israel”, “arabs/persians”
What words you capitalize and which you don’t shows where you are coming from. How do I know this? Because I practice this. :-D
“Israel”, “arabs/persians”
What words you capitalize and which you don’t shows where you are coming from. How do I know this? Because I practice this. :-D
…
Dear Sir,
To quote from the blade-runner, if your not cop, your little people
Earth on zio-occupied plant earth, if your not Israeli your little people, little people don’t get their country’s capped,
I think even the US Constitution dabbled in that there are the “People” then there are the “people” Twas made clear by Hamilton, that the “People” meant landed white men, not the slaves, or the poorly bred.
Lastly, 1 Israeli life is worth , 1,000 non-Israeli lives, how do I know this? Cuz Bibi told us so. :)
What happened in Bolivia was not a coup; Moreno’s Constitutional terms ran out and he had no succession plan other than to be President for Life.
All Moreno had to do was pull a Putin and let Linera or another trusted lieutenant serve as President, while he VPed. Or arranged to be appointed to a critical bureaucratic position if his party won the election under a new leader.
Instead Moreno tried to force an unpopular term extension and election. Naturally that aligned the centrists with the opposition and gave them the legal right-of-way to resist.
Moreno set up a good system that was fair. Its too bad he couldn’t follow his own rules.
Progressives do themselves a disfavour when ruling power is all that matters and so they can’t follow rule of law when the laws are perfectly.
Furthermore, the Bolivian Constitution survived the succession crisis.
Moreno did good and left a good legacy. Too bad he couldn’t let go when it was time.
Morales Is the name of the former Bolivian President. Moreno Is the president of Ecuador.
But I agree with you, Morales had to put Álvaro Linera (by the way, a very smart guy)in charge and then wait 4 years to be back.
How long will it take until the presumption falls away that 5G is a disastrous poisonous development, already recognized and demonstrated, with a growing number of cities already prohibited?To continue to tacitly advocate it’s use in discussions as part of the future is destructive to people and the planet.
5G is high technology and is NOT as harmfull as 3G and 4G. What remains harmful are our gadgets, mainly our mobile phones, which we us near our bodies…