Note: as many of you know, I very much disagree with much of what is said in this interview. However, I do think that this point of view deserves a careful listening to, and this is why I wanted to share it with you. The Saker
Saker Message:
Can never forget PCR’s contribution to Reaganomics, especially as he still celebrates the cause – another denial of attempts to reform the ‘American way’.
With that comment I’m not sure that you grasp the idea of ‘supply side’ economic reform which is not the idiot ‘trickle down’ economics. Also Reagan sponsored ‘Project Socrates’ which could have resulted in the significant reform of the US economy until Bush senior terminated it and the US economy slipped back into economic decline.
PCR always provides a good perspective from the US political caste.
PcR is totally correct that the current situation between US and Russia is worse than the cold war, not just due to the crude language used by the US politicians..Even at the height of the Cuban missile crisis there were high ranking diplomats in the US, Russia and Cuba (Dobrynin, Alexeyev etc) trying to diffuse the situation…now there’s nobody as they’ve all been expelled…
Regarding Navalny, I also have to agree with PCR. Why did the Russians allow him to go to Germany?
When Milosevic was on trial in the Hague, he suspected he was being poisoned and requested for medical leave to visit the Bakulev Center for Cardiovascular surgery in Russia. The Russian authorities gave all the necessary guarantees to the Hague authorities regarding his custody arrangements and promised he would be returned on time to resume trial but the request was refused. The Russian doctors were only free to come and do their examination together with the Dutch doctors.
http://www.slobodan-milosevic.org/news/rus022506.htm
Russia, under the guise of reciprocity with Western tribunals, could have easily invited the German doctors to come to Russia instead of letting Navalny go to Germany. (especially in view of the recent Skripal saga)
It is regarding the S300 in Syria where I disagree with PCR. From what I understand there are simply not enough units of S300 to cover the entire Syrian airspace..the ones that are there are guarding a few high- value locations, that’s all..
Can Saker, or other military expert confirm? Is there a no-fly zone over all of Syria..?
PCR does have an interesting perspective, the only thing I would say is Putin is almost certainly balancing many more critical aspects of the puzzle in his decision making.
At the lowest level of detail as you pointed out with respect to the coverage of S300’s in Syria add to this for example the tactical operations of the Syrian army in Idlib Province which are taking back control of areas that could facilitate a reemergence of US proxies or even act as a staging point for a “coalition of the willing” and further I would say not taking this area weakens the “axis of resistance”.
Confrontation with Israel is ultimately war with the Judeo-Christian alliance a much much larger issue, in my opinion it is inevitable but timing is important.
The Russians are not stupid, PCR’s observation that Russians seem not to be aware of the reality, that “facts don’t matter” (from the US perspective) is not true. I believe the Russians are simply playing dumb and they can afford to do so while they calculate time is on their side, “don’t interrupt your enemy while he/she is making a mistake”.
Putin is playing the long game, the next 10 years are critical, America are under pressure to make the moves and that puts them in a weaker position.
Also it is reasonable to conclude there are a myriad of powerful interests within America not united in a common cause which weakens their position even further.
Further some of those powerful interests may very well not see America as the future a fact which may push the world toward war without Putin having initiated anything.
In the big picture a “Great Reset” as is being talked about may see us being pushed towards an open corporatocracy and/or China as the new global superpower and a new form of governance in the world such as technocracy, of course these types of seismic shifts dwarf issues in the Ukraine or Syria as conflicts in there own right but must be considered in context.
In my opinion the probability of the next great war is high, perhaps on the back of a false flag. Syria is again a probable area a war would be carried out simply because it is a softer target than say Russia or Iran directly and it has the potential to round up many Neoconservative objectives in one go, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. Putin has already strategically and successfully placed Russia in the middle of those objectives in the Obama years, your move Biden!
There is no such thing as Judeo-Christianity. Judaism denies the very central idea of Christianity and a certain talmudic passage about Christ is simply vile.
The notion of Christo-Judaism is absurd and points out the absurdity of “Judeo-Christianity.”
“Neoconservative” simply means “Israeli.”
PCR recommends that Russia turn its back on the US and ignore it; but also be more assertive, responsive, and aggressive towards it. These positions are contradictory.
PCR also complains that the Russians do nothing about US propaganda. The question here is: just what could anyone do? Responding in kind will just give the US more fuel. It’s more effective to have softer approaches like RT and Sputnik. Complainants protesting RT’s increasingly Daily Mail-like flavor should bear this in mind.
Those propositions were proposed as either/or, not do both. There was no inconsistency.
Perhaps PCR should have included “neither” as another option.
Dr. Roberts is obviously frustrated and shocked with the US political class/system, seeing how it has changed since he was in government. He is very vocal and critical of the US political system and we should commend him for that.
However, Dr. Roberts believes that, as an American, he knows better how the Russians should handle the corrupt American policy makers. That the Russian method in dealing with Americans is dangerous (or almost reckless).
I believe that Dr. Roberts, with his psychology, background, experience and knowledge, does not understand that you cannot make Russia apply an American way of dealing with the Americans. The Russians have a different mentality, culture and ideology than the Americans. They are more patient, reserved, rational, diplomatic, courteous and averse to conflict. The Russians believe their method is the best way to go.
The Russians obviously have decided that the most successful way to deal with the Americans is to lie low and buy as much time as they can while building up their capabilities to the max. The Russians are following every political, psychological, strategic and military move the Americans are making. They are following every domestic and international related aspect of US policy, and calculate and adjust their policy as needed.
You basically have a nuclear armed super power (the US) that is weakening by the day and is increasingly becoming irrational and corrupt. I believe the Russians are hoping for a more or less smooth US decline while at the same time using their time to prepare to WIN a nuclear war (God forbid).
The continuous expansion and demonstration of Russian military capabilities should be a deterrence to US policy makers and the military command structure. However, as the Americans become more irrational and corrupt, deterrence might not work anymore and the Russians have to prepare to defend themselves and WIN a nuclear war.
I do not believe it is possible to ‘win’ a nuclear war. No defense can stop 5000 nuclear warheads falling on your country. Nuclear war must be prevented and MAD has always been the way. I look at Russia’s response … in building new more sophisticated weapons as a way to deter the number of people in the US who seem to think a nuclear war can be won. Their old weapons would have destroyed the US, but newer, even more unstoppable weapons might have a good psychological effect. It is simply psychological though. Increasing the probability of a nuclear warhead hitting a city from 99.9% to 99.999% is not really a change at all. So, the answer is NOT that Russians should start thinking about ‘winning’ a nuclear war, but keep concentrating on the concept of deterrence, because a nuclear must not be allowed to begin.
Agreed that there are no real winners. It also depends on what you concider a win.
A nuclear war would be catastrophic for both Russia and the US for sure. But if more Russians survive due to a combination of landmass, superiority in missile capabilities, strategic/tactical nukes and missile defense, then that can be concidered a relative win compared to the total annihilation of the US.
MAD assumes rational actors. Russians will do their best to deter the Americans. But if the Americans become delerious or let their madness to increase the possibility of an accidental nuclear exchange, the Russians will be prepared in the case of failure MAD detterence.
RE: Harry_Red on April 28, 2021 · at 1:48 pm EST/EDT
“the Russians will be prepared in the case of failure MAD detterence. “
The strategy of the Russian Federation “in the case of failure of MAD deterence” is to ensure MAD by choice not by accident.
As a function of their immersion in specific social relations, Mr. Paul Craig Roberts and others may believe that this is not the case despite this being widely broadcast, including by Mr. Putin and others, as a statement of intent, not as a blackmail threat.
Then the saying that every cloud has a silver lining will be tested but not widely observed.
Another comment I might make is that if the goal is to influence American Policy, then someone who understands America better, might be the person to give the best advice. How well PCR understands American politics could be debated, but saying that he doesn’t understand Russians is of secondary importance, if what you want is the best policy to change American policy.
When PCR says things that “it is not clear that the Kremlin understands {American Unilateralism} he betrays a mind set that can only ever see the world as one people who can think and are clever – Americans, and the other who are frankly a bit naive and stupid and cant keep up – Russians!!
It also betrays the fact that clearly he has never studied the history of the Russian secret services, of Putin himself nor listened to a word Putin has said, nor studied all Putins actions.
There is nothing, not one thing, about what the predictable, infantile narcissist / psychopaths who have most of the reins of power in Washington, are, have been, and are probably planning to do.
I do wish he would stick to economics and gold!!
Anonymous observes:
“When PCR says things that “it is not clear that the Kremlin understands {American Unilateralism} he betrays a mind set that can only ever see the world as one people who can think and are clever – Americans, and the other who are frankly a bit naive and stupid and cant keep up – Russians!!”
We used to read PCR, mostly for his financial/economic understandings. But since the Biden/Covid issues, he spends much of his time click baiting on Cancel Culture & the Woke movement. He doesn’t understand the US media is spinning this out to both distract citizens and to cover up what the montage of US Capitalism is doing – to further enrich itself, while destroying millions of hapless Americans.
Lastly, as an economist, PCR is no reader of Russian or Western European history. He has no authority in making recommendations to the Russian political system. None!
I’ve followed PCR on and off for well over a decade. Sometimes he hits it, sometimes he shoots long, but here I think he’s probably on target. I doubt that Putin fails to understand what’s happening, however, but he isn’t playing the game that PCR wants him to play.
If I had to put faith in either approach to avoid WW3, I’d probably bet on Putin’s approach at least for the time being.
Putin appears to be the adult in the room. I’m wondering if anyone has a perspective on whether or not Putin is in alignment with the World Economic Forum regarding the great reset? Sometimes I think he is resistant, and then I see that they are working with them. It’s confusing.
They will work with everyone. But the so-called Great Reset – not at all. We have seen it over and over again. Neither Vladimir Putin, nor Xi Jinping has ever even deigned to give it a mention. It’s a thing of the western climes.
We need a reset, but not this Great Reset :-)
Also, how can PCR quote US newspapers with any confidence? Free Press?
PCR ; like so many intelligent and informed people would make his observations about the intransigence of the United States government attitudes and toward Russia more accurate and if he pointed out the Absolute Bolshevik backgrounds ; as well as the goals of the US Foreign Policy players. Sohlzenitsyn’s observations about the Talmudic ; ” so called Kazarian Jews ” is; and always was ; at the core of most of Russia’s as well as mankinds difficulties. PCR is fearful of being labeled anti Semitic ; when he is actually only anti “Talmudic”.