by Batko Milacic for the Saker Blog
Recently, the Ukrainian army launched a counter-offensive on the southern and eastern front.
The Ukrainian leadership seems to have started to sober up and it has become clear to them that they have no use for false praises about successes on the southern front because in the end the people will find out the real truth.
For this reason, the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Anna Molyar, criticized those bloggers and journalists who speak prematurely about the victories of the Ukrainian army, while the former Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defense Alliance, General Serhiy Krivonos, harshly criticizes the military and state leadership for the large number of victims.
– We have the right to ask the authorities why we have hundreds of thousands of wounded and dead? What did you do to save their lives, General Krivonos said on his YouTube channel. That general believes that more and more citizens will ask the country’s leadership why so many soldiers are dying.
Also, the American Institute for the Study of War admitted that the Ukrainian counterattack in the south of the country cannot lead to significant successes.
At the end of August, a document signed by the commander of the armed forces of Ukraine, General Valerii Zaluzhny, reached social networks. According to that document, at the beginning of July 2022, – 76,640 Ukrainian soldiers were killed, and 42,704 were wounded. At that time, 7,244 Ukrainian soldiers were captured, and 2,816 of them were missing.
Ukrainian counter-offensive in the east it’s also going slow with a lot of casualties.
Kiev has been trying to compensate for the fiasco of their counteroffensive on the southern (Kherson) front – where they lost two motorized brigades and over 300 tanks, other armored fighting vehicles and heavy artillery – with strikes northwest of Kharkiv for the second day. They are suffering heavy losses, as evidenced by the fact that they have been sending reserve forces into the fighting.
Because of all of the above, my interview which I did with the respected Russian analyst Mr. Yuri Podolyaka, who has 2.2 million followers on Telegram, regarding Ukraine (but not just Ukraine) has great importance. The conversation was long, because two Italian journalists took part in it also, but here I will outline Mr. Podolyaka views in short. What is important to emphasize is that Mr. Podolyaka is under the protection of the Russian special services, because his security is threatened by the Ukrainian intelligence services. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian intelligence services use terrorist methods, all with the aim of neutralizing critics who use arguments to expose the lies of the regime in Kiev.
First of all, I was interested when, the special operation in Ukraine will end?
Mr. Yuri Podolyaka: Next year if we’re lucky. Otherwise, in 2024.
Me: Will the Russian army liberate all of Ukraine up to the Vinitsa-Zhytomyr line or will they agree to the division of Ukraine?
Mr. Yuri Podolyaka: In my opinion, most likely the entire Ukraine will be liberated up to the line Vinitsa-Zhytomyr.
Me: Will there be a mobilization in Russia, bearing in mind that the ratio of the number of soldiers is 1:3 in favor of Ukraine?
Mr. Yuri Podolyaka: I think there will be no need for mobilization in Russia, because the situation at the front does not require it.
Me: And if Russia decided for mobilization, how would the Russian people react?
Mr. Yuri Podolyaka: The people would accept it, the majority of Russians are patriots.
Me: We saw that the liberation of Mariupol was difficult, with many victims. Do you expect it to be the same with other major cities in Ukraine?
Mr. Yuri Podolyaka: No. Ukraine no longer has the resources it used to have. And the longer the conflict lasts, the weaker Ukrainian resources will be.
Me: How many soldiers does Russia lose monthly in Ukraine?
Mr. Yuri Podolyaka: About 1,500, which is small number for such a demanding special operation from the perspective of the military doctrine. On the other hand, Ukrainians have huge losses.
Me: In your opinion, was the Russian army prepared for the special military operation? Was there a need to provide combat drones and a larger number of soldiers?
Mr. Yuri Podolyaka: Above all, the Russian army and the Russian state wanted peace. This operation in Ukraine was imposed on them by the West. As for readiness, no army is ever fully prepared. Problems always arise. However, the Russian army successfully solves everything as it goes.
Me: Have combat drones from Iran arrived in Russia? Since the flights of transport planes on the route Iran – Russia have been recorded.
Mr. Yuri Podolyaka: Yes, they arrived. Cooperation was established for mutual benefit. Iran, on the other hand, will receive sophisticated Russian weapons.
Me: In your opinion, did the Russian army make a mistake when it immediately started liberating Kiev? Should Odesa and Kharkiv be liberated first and only then Kiev?
Mr. Yuri Podolyaka: Absolutely, a big mistake was made there, people were lost. The larger pro-Russian cities had to be liberated first, and only then Kiev.
Me: Bearing in mind the bad position of the Russians in Kazakhstan, could the issue of the position of the Russians and the decentralization of Kazakhstan be opened there in the future?
Mr. Yuri Podolyaka: No. Cooperation between official Moscow and Nur-Sultan is good, so all misunderstandings will be resolved by the agreement of the leaders of the countries. Also, Kazakhstan and Kazakhs need Russia, primarily for economic reasons. On the other hand, Kazakhstan is a soft underbelly for Russia.
Me: In your opinion, what is the future of Belarus?
Mr. Yuri Podolyaka: After the departure of Lukashenko from power and the settlement of the situation in today’s Ukraine, Belarus will become part of Russia.
Me: If a conflict broke out in the Balkans (Kosovo and Bosnia) in the near future, would Russia have the resources to help the Serbs?
Mr. Yuri Podolyaka: Now there will certainly be no conflict in the Balkans, for one simple reason. The West cannot lead a conflict on two fronts. The West knows that in that case, Russia would solve the situation in Ukraine very quickly.
Me: However, if Russia were to suddenly begin to forcefully win in Ukraine. And if the West then wrote off Ukraine and started a fire in the Balkans, would Russia be able to help the Serbs?
Mr. Yuri Podolyaka: Certainly, Russia has enough resources for a conflict on two fronts. Serbs would get help.
Author: Batko Milacic
As a topic, one would rather expect some comments on Kharkiv region situation. The UA offensive alreadzy has been developing there for some time. Or is that just another Ru feint of the Stavka high and sophisticated strategy?
Evidently, the interview was done before the Kharkov offensive
Bankrupted States of America are losing the war
The Chechen field commander (don’t remember his name) had stated that it was a feint to get the Ukrainian forces out in the steppe.
From the reports of horrendous casualties on the Ukrainian side and the strike of 40 Kalibr missiles by the Russian forces, I believe that this statement was true. The Saker himself explained yesterday how feigned retreat is used.
As ever, nice, expert explanation from strategists both comfortly sitting in armarchairs in the Yanks satan land. Again Ru army, retreated, rout, or whatever and left friendly civilians to SBU, Kraken, Soldiers of Fortune..The raison d être of any army is to protect the civilians of its own. If repeteadly unable to do so, Vichy is fair thing.
The raison d être of any army is to protect the civilians of its own.
I wonder ….. would you be kind enough to remind the Ukrainians?
(I’m particularly remembering 8 years of bombs dropped on their civilians in the Donbas.)
…on their civilians in the Donbas… You really believe that after Maidan the Hohols of Kiev saw them as their civilians? Or am I missing something in your comment?
Disagree with your government – you’re no longer a citizen? No talk, no vote – just bomb? That what you missing?
Remember Poroshenko talking about the children? So proud of himself he told the whole world….
On your opinion, what should the Russians have done? Taken them with – or stayed behind?
So the losses are 1 to 10. Deep respect for those who gave their lives against Nazi ideology and those individuals who by incident came into the crossfire.
Sad to hear we have to go through 2023 before it ends but on the other hand its a huge huge task to transform such a huge country with so many inhabitants.
Ukraine and Belarus being part of Russia long term, adding 40 mio and 10 mio to 140 mio = 190 mio Kazakhstan 20 mio, Serbia 9 mio, meaning a Russia population above 200-220 mio.
Not enough to meet US 330 mio nor China 1,4 bio, but enough to be the biggest, strongest and most populated European country.
Half of Poland 38 mio x 0,5?……………………………………..(joking).
I imagine Yuri is not all that well-known in the anglosphere, which is a real shame. His daily updates on Telegram have been a great source of information since the special operation started. Very concise and usually accurate. Pretty sure he has contacts in the military circles, or at least that’s the impression that one gets.
“According to that document, at the beginning of July 2022, – 76,640 Ukrainian soldiers were killed, and 42,704 were wounded. At that time, 7,244 Ukrainian soldiers were captured, and 2,816 of them were missing.”
Sorry but that document has some serious issues. First of as military history during the last 100 years and even more since WW2 can tell there is always much more wounded that KIA (killed in action).
We can compare the loss figures of DPR until early Sept. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) is reporting as of 1 September that they had 2,910 soldiers killed and 12,223 wounded (4.20-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio). They reported 87 more killed between 28 July and 3 August, 106 more killed between 3 to 11 August, 127 more killed as of 18 August, 64 more killed as of 25 August and another 79 killed as of 1 September. It is 76% casualties out of an estimated initial force of 20,000.
It’s also pretty odd that Ukrainian army would have exact numbers of captured Ukrainian soldiers. Only enemy (in this case RF, LPR and DPR) knows how many soldiers they have captured. Army might know how many of its soldiers are missing but never how many of them are captured.
So that document is missleading. Of course there is chance that Ukrainian armed forces can’t evacuate its wounded. However as we do know most of wounded are normally not serious cases (as DPR numbers are telling) that scenario can’t be true.
During WW2 even Red Army own figures were revealing there were around 4 times more wounded than killed in action. Of those wounded around 75% were not serious cases, so most of WIA could came back to service during next weeks or months.
It is terrifying to know that 76 % of DPR troops have been wounded or killed. That is way more than any previous war that I know of ,at least for Western armies.
I think the assessment of the DPR casualties is incorrect. The figures for their numbers of forces are pre-war. They doubled after the mobilization took place. And I believe doubled (or close) after volunteers from Russia,other nations,and from the liberated territories are included. Any statistics to be valid must include those numbers into the mix. Plus since they are some of the main infantry in the fighting,then yes their causalities would be higher than regular Russian overall losses. Ukrainian sources themselves say that their causalities are on a ratio of 5 of their soldiers killed to every 1 Russian killed. And considering those are Ukrainian figures they very well may be an undercount.
Can someone share a link to the Telegram channel of Mr Podolyaka please
“However, the Russian army successfully solves everything as it goes.”
With not advancing much at all since late June? Of course I accept the strategy to not destroy really Ukraine but so called “United West”. Public image of Russian military is hardly important or isn’t it? What do have they have to do make west afraid of Russian military instead of making nasty jokes about “Russian military incompetence” or “Russian military slow masturbation warfare”? Not many made jokes about Red Army in 1945. In that perspective Russian military has Mont Everest to mount.
Russia is doing great with the current war strategy. There’s no point in using excessive force by destroying everything when in fact most people in the region are of Russian origin. Basically, the strategy is to give the NATO-backed Ukrainian proxies enough rope to hang themselves with. The main battle front is in the wider economic sphere which Russia has successfully applied without raising a finger – only facilitating those imbecile EU stooges commit economic Harakiri very nicely using their own means. See what’s happening in Europe. The entire continent is going upside down. For Russia this is only the beginning scenario. Almost all of the Eurozone countries and UK are nearly failed states. Also, it’s good to hear that Iranian made drones have been sent to Russia and hope they make the best use of them. Russian technicians will be able to improve on the overall efficiency of the Iranian drones and help Iranian engineers with design/manufacturing aspects.
@maskazer: “Also, it’s good to hear that Iranian made drones have been sent to Russia”
Really? Is there some proof of it or is it just another western capter of the story called “Rooskies are lacking ammo and weaponry”?
We may never know for sure if they are sent or not. According to the interviewee, yes they are sent. Even if they are sent to Russia, it doesn’t mean Russia is running out of ammo or lacks the technology to make similar drones. Most likely it makes sense to use relatively inexpensive Iranian drones which are by the way good for what they are made for. Incidentally it’s absolutely foolish of western military think tanks publicizing the Russia’s ran out of ammunition story only to find out later that it is in fact armed up to its teeth. So they will be hugely surprised allowing Russia to score a major publicity victory at the end.
Your thinking is based on the assumption that the public image (in the West) of the Russian military depends on how it performs.
Any such reasoning is flawed because it ignores the fact that public images are manufactured through propaganda, even more so in war time and of an enemy.
Take the Mariupol Azovstal victories and how they have been narrated in our media. Victory was indisputable, yet what we’ve been told is about the heroic resistance of the nazis – who by the way weren’t my longer nazi.
Had Russia to obtain am overwhelming tactical or strategic victory, it would be credited to its proverbial brutality and not to its military skills.
When all this will be over, the story will go that it took too long to Russia to achieve its goals and it did it in a clumsy fashion, and derogatory commentaries will dominate our public discourse. See the example of 08/08/08 or Syria.
I’m afraid that in this filed there’s nothing that can be done, as the West has a structural advantage that cannot be overcome
If Russia bombs every standing structure into rubble, kills every living thing that walks and breathes then it has fought a war like the United States.
One more time, Russia is not engaging Ukrainian leadership in the sense of a traditional war. But, rather Russia declared this action as a special military operation from the very outset. They are bringing a very special kind of fight to a particular group of people which Russia has also identified as the enemy: the Nazis.
What’s so hard for people to understand Russia did not intend to go into a Ukraine and destroy each and every structure and annihilate every living thing.
I really do think, I sincerely do that Russia tried to be the peacemaker in this situation with NATO and Western Alliance regarding Ukraine.
And it’s categorically stated: “Blessed are the peacemakers”
Honestly I have to admit that killed to wounded ratio of claimed Ukrainian military losses made me very suspicious. I just wonder how just very few of uss here are questioning it. Not even lacking ability to evacuate wounded can’t explain it. Normally 42,704 wounded is suggesting 11,000 to 12,000 killed. Do we have to believe in theory that 60,000 Ukies have been killed by RF hypersonic/other long range missile devastating hits with just irreplaceable losses (killed) not wounded at all.
That leaked document is not really credible.
It is Ukrainian document
I agree. The document origin itself is dubious. It’s content also makes little sense
Sehr seltsam.
Ich dachte immer, es hätte sich herum gesprochen, daß die RF Kiew überhaupt nicht befreien, was mit diesen paar Hanseln sowieso nicht möglich war.
Are there really 1,500 RF casualties each month as a result of the SMO?
IMO that figure seems high given how depleted the UAF stocks are and how inexperienced their soldiers are in relative terms.
I think that the depletion and under training of Ukrainian military are exaggerated. Plus they are constantly resupplied by the West
The reason I say I am surprised that the RF casualties are that high is because RF forces continue to take large areas of land, are aided by air support and firepower and the task that would be left is generally mopping up.
Maybe the Telegram channels I view show a disproportionate view of Ukrainian casualties of which there are many with obviously damaged equipment. My view may be distorted given that there were reports that the Ukrainian fronts were close to collapse.
Given that Yuri believes the SMO could end in 2024 really has taken me by surprise.
@abc123:” Are there really 1,500 RF casualties each month as a result of the SMO?”
Most important question here is “casualties”. Some people understand it as “killed”. In reality killed or deceased are minority of all casualties, likely 15-20%.
Why not just use right concepts: killed in action, died on wounds, non combat deaths, wounded in action, sick, missing in action?
The government in Ukraine can be described as a neo nazi regime. The neo nazis have also taken control over most of the EU member governments, otherwise they would not be sending their weaponry to Kiev. Ursula von de Leyen is the unelected chief neo zazis of the European Council, who seem determined to impoverish and freeze most of the European citizens in accordance with dictates from the US Biden regime.
Well, actually Ursula von de Leyen was elected chief neo nazi.
Ursual von der Leyen was appointed President of the European Commission by European national leaders and elected by the European Parliament.
So she was elected by all the national nuthead leaders of Europe, and who elected all the national nuthead leaders of Europe?
Come on guys, which nutheads did vote and elected the nuthead leaders of your country that elected the nuthead Ursula??
Mirror mirror whose the brightest people on earth???
Do you guys think… This SMO war makes Russia the most experienced Millitary in the world, in todays warfare against a sophisticated capable enemy, not a third world army like the US against Syria or the Taliban.
One should perhaps consider what would have eventually happened, if Russia had not undertaken the invasion of Ukraine after 14,000 Russian speakers in Donbas and Luhansk had been murdered since 2014. The build up of Ukraine’s military and the expansion of NATO armed with ballistic missiles, suggests that it was planning a war with Russia. Personally, I think that Russia was strategically correct in preempting the Kiev regime, tragic as it is.
Off course. I dont understand anybody can be in any any doubt?
First Donbass and Luhansk would have been taken, then Crimea would be taken with a lot of Russian casualties.
Then NATO could see Russia was a bunch of defenceless pussies and talkers, and the Minute Mans would be build up on the Russian borders.
Andrei Martyanov himself has written about normal 1 to 3 or 1 to 4 ratio of killed to wounded. With exception of perhaps Airbone units (choppers, transport aircraft shoot downed) or sink vessels of Marine, that 1 to 3 or 1 to 4 has been rather common ratio. Always much more wounded than killed in action. Perhaps with land warfare exceptions like cases of German Blitzkrieg success in summer of 1941 or Bagration kind Red Army huge victories that has been the norm. Besides in Bagration great majority of Germans killed were actually “missing in action” which is also normal when ever army units have been run over with no chance to escape. Killed in action is soldier confirmed to have been killed. MIA is soldier not in unit and no one having idea what happened to him. There were much more German soldiers in 1944 MIA than KIA. But even in those days there were 3-4 times WIA Wehrmacht/SS soldiers than KIA.
That “leaked” Ukrainian report has really confusing numbers. How could Ukrainian Armed Forces know how many its soldiers have been caputered by RF/LPR/DPR? Then they have much smaller numbers of MIA. The whole document is big mess underestimating those people who have studied military history and its “butchers bill” at least little bit.
It might be quite realistic to estimate DPR losses (2,910 killed, 12,223 wounded) been around 40% of all that combination RF/DPR/LPR. Which means 7,000-7,500 killed and ~30,000 wounded during first 28 weeks. On average 250-270 killed per week and over 1,000 wounded.
It seems to me that EU and US are ratcheting up the pressure on Belgrade to “normalize” relations with the so called Republic of Kosovo. Vucic is not biting but has made public statements that the Albanian leader Kurti is planning an invasion of Northern Kosovo. I am sure the EU and US are holding him back but he may try it regardless, it would be a grave mistake as this time don’t think the Serbian army would waste anytime reacting to secure Northern Kosovo with or without NATO.
Thanks great interview.
I’m not so sure about the balkans though. I thought it was part of US doctrine to be able to manage a war on two fronts, as seen during WW2. Obama said this policy was abandoned, but I’m not so sure. To me it looks like Empire has a policy of performing mulitiple operations globally. They where working on Syria, while they where bombing Libya.
Now, with parts of a billion $ being spread out to counter anti-russian influence on the balkans … how much of the Bosnian pot is falling on Republika Srpska ? Or are they the russian influence ? Not looking good.