Three ain’t a crowd: The Iran-Russia summit this week, concurrent with RIC military drills in the Sea of Oman, in advance of a Xi-Putin meeting in two weeks, suggests a rapidly-advancing strategic vision for the three Eurasian powers.
By Pepe Escobar, posted with the author’s permission and cross-posted with The Cradle
Photo Credit: The Cradle
The official visit to Russia by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, at the invitation of Vladimir Putin, generated one of the most stunning geopolitical pics of the 21st century: Raisi performing his afternoon prayers at the Kremlin.
Arguably, more than the hours of solid discussions on geopolitical, geoeconomic, energy, trade, agriculture, transportation and aerospace dossiers, this visual will be imprinted all across the Global South as a fitting symbol of the ongoing, inexorable process of Eurasian integration.
Raisi went to Sochi and Moscow ready to offer Putin essential synergy in confronting a decaying, unipolar Empire increasingly prone to irrationalism. He made it clear at the start of his three hours of discussions with Putin: our renewed relationship should not be “short-term or positional – it will be permanent and strategic.”
Putin must have relished the torrents of meaning inbuilt in one of Raisi’s statements of fact: “We have been resisting the Americans for more than 40 years.”
Yet, much more productive, was “a document on strategic cooperation” between Iran and Russia that Raisi and his team presented to Russian officials.
Raisi emphasized this road map “can determine the prospect for at least 20 years ahead,” or at least clarify “the long-term strategic interaction between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation.”
Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian confirmed that both presidents tasked their top diplomats to work on the roadmap. This is, in fact, an update of a previous 20-year cooperation treaty signed in 2001, originally meant to last for 10 years, and then twice extended for five years.
A key item of the new 20-year strategic partnership between the two neighbors is bound to be a Eurasian-based clearing network designed to compete with SWIFT, the global messaging system between banks.
Starting with Russia, Iran and China (RIC), this mechanism has the potential to unite member-nations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), ASEAN, BRICS and other regional trading/security organizations. The combined geoeconomic weight of all these actors will inevitably attract many others across the Global South and even Europe.
The basis already exists. China launched its Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) in 2015, using the yuan. Russia developed its System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS). To build an independent Russian-Chinese financial system by linking the two should not be a problem. The main question is to choose the standard currency – possibly the yuan.
Once the system is up and running, that’s perfect for Iran, which badly wants to increase trade with Russia but remains handicapped by US sanctions. Iran has already signed trade agreements and is involved in long-term strategic development with both Russia and China.
The new roadmap
When Amir-Abdollahian described Raisi’s visit to Russia as a “turning point in the policy of good neighborliness and looking to the East,” he was giving the short version of the roadmap followed by the new Iranian administration: “a neighbor-centered policy, an Asia-centered policy with a focus on looking to the East, and an economy-centered diplomacy.”
In contrast, the only ‘policy’ de facto deployed by the collective West against both Russia and Iran is sanctions. Nullifying these is therefore on top of the agenda for Moscow and Tehran. Iran and the EAEU already have a temporary agreement. What they need, sooner rather than later, is to become full partners in a free trade area.
While Amir-Abdollahian praised the resolution of disputes with neighbors, such as Iraq and Turkmenistan, and a reconfiguration of the diplomatic chessboard with Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and even Saudi Arabia, President Raisi – in addressing the Duma – chose to detail complex foreign plots to dispatch networks of Takfiri terrorists to “new missions from the Caucasus to Central Asia.”
As Raisi said, “experience has shown that only pure Islamic thought can prevent the formation of extremism and Takfiri terrorism.”
Raisi was unforgiving on the Empire: “The strategy of domination has now failed, the United States is in its weakest position, and the power of independent nations is experiencing historic growth.” And he certainly seduced the Duma with his analysis of NATO:
“NATO is engaged in penetration into the geographical spaces of various countries under the pretext of cover. Again, they threaten independent states. The spread of the Western model, opposition to independent democracies, opposition to the self-identification of peoples – this is precisely on the agenda of NATO. It is only a deception, we see the deception in their behavior, which will eventually lead to their disintegration.”
Raisi’s main theme is ‘resistance,’ and that was imprinted in all of his meetings. He duly emphasized the Afghan and Iraqi resistances: “In modern times, the concept of resistance plays a central role in deterrence equations.”
The Islamic Republic of Iran is all about that resistance: “In different historical periods of Iran’s development, whenever our nation has raised the banner of nationalism, independence, or scientific development, it has faced sanctions and pressures of the Iranian nation’s enemies,” Raisi emphasized.
On the JCPOA, with the new round of negotiations in Vienna for all practical purposes still bogged down, Raisi said, “the Islamic Republic of Iran is serious about reaching an agreement if the other parties are serious about lifting the sanctions effectively and operationally.”
University of Tehran Professor Mohammad Marandi, now in Vienna as a high-level advisor to the Iranian delegation, compares his experience with the original JCPOA negotiations in 2015, when he was an observer. Marandi notes that as far as the Americans are concerned, “it’s the same mentality. We’re the boss, we have special privileges.”
He stresses that “a deal is not imminent.” The Americans refuse to provide guarantees: “The main problem is the scope of the sanctions, they want to keep many of them in place. In fact, they don’t want the JCPOA. Basically, it’s the same attitude as during Trump.”
Marandi offers practical solutions. Remove all maximum pressure sanctions. Accept “a reasonable verification process if you have no intention of cheating Iranian people again.” Provide assurances so “Iranians know you won’t violate the deal again. Iran won’t accept threats or deadlines during negotiations.” It’s unlikely the Americans will ever accept any of the above.
The contrast between the Raisi and Rouhani administrations is stark: “In the hope of getting something from the West, the previous administration wasted serious opportunities with both China and Russia. Now it’s a completely different story,” says Marandi.
The Chinese angle is quite intriguing. Marandi notes how Amir-Abdolliahan has just returned from China; and how the only nation in West Asia that the Chinese can reliably depend on is Iran. That is inbuilt in their 20-year strategic deal, many positive facets of which should be adopted by the Russia-Iran mechanism.
The lineaments of a new world
The gist of Raisi’s exposé to the Duma is that Iran has been winning battles on two different fronts: against Salafi-jihadi terrorism and against the American campaign of maximum economic pressure.
And that places Iran in a very good position as a Russian partner, with its “extensive economic potential, especially in the fields of energy, trade, agriculture, industry and technology.”
On its geoeconomical position, Raisi noted how “the privileged geographical location of Iran, especially in the north-south corridor, can make trade from India to Russia and Europe less expensive and more prosperous.”
Way back in 2002, Russia, Iran and India signed an agreement to establish the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200 km multi-modal ship/rail/road cargo network linking India, Iran, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Russia and Central Asia all the way to Europe as an alternative transportation corridor to the Suez Canal. Now Putin and Raisi want maximum impetus for the INSTC.
Raisi’s visit happened just before a crucial joint drill, codenamed ‘2022 Marine Security Belt,’ started in the Sea of Oman, actually the north of the Indian Ocean, with marine and airborne units of the Iranian, Chinese and Russian navies.
The Sea of Oman connects to the ultra-strategic Strait of Hormuz, which connects to the Persian Gulf. Pentagon denizens of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy will be hardly amused.
All of the above spells out deeper interconnection. The Putin-Raisi meeting precedes by two weeks the Putin-Xi meeting at the start of the Winter Olympics in Beijing – when they are expected to take the Russia-China strategic partnership to the next level.
A new Eurasia-led order encompassing the vast majority of the world’s population is a work in fast progress. China using Eurasia as the larger stage to upgrade its global role, in parallel to the fast-evolving Sino-Russian-Iranian interaction, carries larger than life implications for the Western gatekeepers of the imperial ‘rules-based order.’
The de-Westernization of globalization, from a Chinese point of view, does involve a completely new terminology (‘community of shared destiny’). And there are hardly more glaring examples of ‘shared destiny’ than its deeper interconnection with both Russia and Iran.
One of the crucial geopolitical questions of our time is how an emergent, supposedly Chinese hegemony will articulate itself. If actions speak louder than words, then Sino-hegemony looks loose, malleable and inclusive, starkly different to the US variety. For one, it concerns the absolute majority of the Global South, which will be involved and vocal.
Iran is one of the leaders of the Global South. Russia, deeply implicated in de-Westernizing global governance, holds a unique position – diplomatically, militarily, as an energy provider – as the special conduit between East and West: the irreplaceable Eurasian bridge, and the guarantor of Global South stability.
All of that is at play now. It is no wonder that the leaders of the three main Eurasian powers are meeting and holding discussions in person, within just a matter of days.
As the Atlanticist axis drowns in hubris, arrogance, and incompetence, welcome to the lineaments of the Eurasian, post-Western world.
Talks in Kremlin, drills in Sea of Oman, SPFS…
It looks like slow, but sure cutting-off UK/US logistic lines. Removing them from Asia once and for all.
Next stop: Middle East.
No wonder why “Pentagon denizens of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy will be hardly amused”.
«A new Eurasia-led order encompassing the vast majority of the world’s population is a work in fast progress. China using Eurasia as the larger stage to upgrade its global role, in parallel to the fast-evolving Sino-Russian-Iranian interaction, carries larger than life implications for the Western gatekeepers of the imperial ‘rules-based order.’… As the Atlanticist axis drowns in hubris, arrogance, and incompetence, welcome to the lineaments of the Eurasian, post-Western world.»
The world becoming the real world for ALL of humanity, no longer exclusively the world of, by and for the hegemonic, imperialistic, 15% West… At last!
That sound you can hear is Makinder spinning in his grave as ‘The Great Game’ reaches its concluding end stage.
You should know better than to proclaim the end of history.
‘Accept “a reasonable verification process if you have no intention of cheating Iranian people again.”’
But cheating is what the Americans do! Birds fly, fish swim, spiders catch flies, and a certain type of American cheats, lies, and steals. Always.
https://www.rt.com/news/457452-pompeo-cia-moment-honest-interviews/
Asking them not to cheat is like asking a tiger to become vegan.
@Tom Welsh. Negotiation, Pompeo style:
“How could you believe me when you know I’ve been a liar all my life?”
https://youtu.be/8q2fTSo8aoY?t=34
Loved this…thanks ….gave me a chuckle !
@ Pepe
As always, in gratitude for your insights into world events, and the deconstruction of Raisi’s speech to the Duma and his visit to Russia, in the context of the new Eurasian sun rising on the East.
You said, referring to the China-Iran strategic cooperation agreement,
“…That is inbuilt in their 20-year strategic deal, many positive facets of which should be adopted by the Russia-Iran mechanism…”
Just FYI, the agreement signed between China and Iran is a 25-year long-term strategic deal, not 20. I don’t understand why the five years difference between the agreements with China and Russia, it might be based on former arrangements.
Again, thanks for sharing your insights with the Saker community.
Lone Wolf
Well spoted.
Ever since I read James Bradley’s excellent books “The Imperial Cruise” and “The China Mirage”, I have understood how the US elite came to regard Asia as the next “Wild West”. After they had exterminated or imprisoned the last of the Native Americans, they sought new continents to conquer and looked across the Pacific to Asia. Hawaii and the Philippines made good stepping stones, and Australia became a useful base.
Realising that China was too big to conquer across 6,000 miles of ocean, Teddy Roosevelt and others of his ilk decided to use Japan as their Janissaries. Like a huge shaped charge, Japan was to penetrate China and open it up for US colonisation. Once established in the beachhead, Americans could expand, build up forces at their leisure and eventually subdue and loot the entire continent.
Unfortunately the Japan strategy backfired sensationally, when the Japanese took American expressions of friendship seriously and set out to create their own colonial empire. That inconvenienced the Americans, who regarded everything as their own property, and led to the Japanese being obliterated and their cities turned into seas of ash.
But with Mao and the Communists taking power in China, the entire grand plan was frustrated. China was now immune to invasion. Although lengthy, the recent film “The Battle near Lake Changjin” (available for viewing free online), gives a vivid idea of how the Chinese saw the US invaders during the Korean War.
Today the Americans are reduced to stirring up trouble over Taiwan and Ukraine, and meddling in the Middle East. Asia is increasingly becoming closed to their attempts at invasion or subversion.
With China, Russia and Iran united, Asia has a steel backbone to which fresh alliances can be added. Those three nations represents areas which the Americans dare not attack, and of whom they must be wary. If India and Pakistan can be added, and the Asian loyalty of nations like Mongolia and Kazakhstan confirmed, Asia may become the core of a new and peaceful world civilisation. And the USA can just hang on its isolated branch and rot.
Tom,
You’re missing the forest and the most important tree, Traitors. To understand a nation start with its Central Bank. Is it private/autonomous or sovereign (driven by the PM/President – Administration)? Is the monetary system of a nation private or sovereign?
When was the first central bank created in our world? It was in 1609 in Netherlands (Bank of Amsterdam). Which Private Imperialist Oligarchy was involved in its creation? The U$A didn’t exist then. What has been the trajectory of the creation of central banks since then? Please focus on the Private Imperialist Oligarchy (PIO) that wants to capture nations to accomplish their dream of a global financial empire. The PIO wants nations to be their Suzerainty (Vassal). Please name a democracy that isn’t a suzerainty.
To understand the U$A better follow the creation of central banks in the U$A. How about in Japan? The Bank of Japan (BOJ) was created in 1882 and modeled after the Belgium central bank. Who were the drivers and owners of the Belgium central bank? BOJ is still private. Who are the owners? Most big powers have pursued Imperialism after the founding of their central bank, this includes the U$A (1913), Britain (1694), Japan (1882), France, …. Why do the central bankers have money to fuel imperialism and not provide basics to their citizens? Why do central bankers debt Enslave their citizens and corporations? Who wants to make us all, whether we be nations or individuals, slaves to debt?
Why did Russia let its monetary system be distorted on advice from Milton Friedman (Chicago) and Harvard boys after the fall of the Soviet Union? China didn’t follow the advice then and let its monetary system be distorted. China pursued a dual-track strategy to build a middle pathway. How & why?
It is time for each nation to become sovereign and build a sovereign monetary system. There is no sovereignty without monetary sovereignty. There is no shortage of money. The challenge is to create and allocate money wisely to build a good nation and empower citizens.
“The privilege of creating and issuing money is not only the supreme prerogative of Government, but it is the Government’s greatest creative opportunity…. The people can and will be furnished with a currency as safe as their own government. Money will cease to be the master and become the servant of humanity. Democracy will rise superior to the money power.”
Where are Sauron & Saruman? Gollum is in….
“How lucky I am that my mother studied with JRR Tolkien and CS Lewis and WH Auden and that she passed on to me a command of language that permits me to “tell the story” of the world economy in plain English. She would have been delighted that I managed to show that the evil Gollum from Tolkien’s tales lives above the doorway in the Oval Office, which he certainly does. I saw him there myself. He may have found a new perch over at The Federal Reserve Bank as well.”
– Excerpt From, Signals: The Breakdown of the Social Contract and the Rise of Geopolitics by Dr Philippa Malmgren
“In God We Trust”
Private Imperialist Oligarchy – Global Financial Syndicate?
https://www.zeit-fragen.ch/en/archives/2019/no-8-2-april-2019/from-currency-war-to-military-war.html
Excellent comment! You are absolutely correct. There is no national sovereignty without monetary sovereignty, money issuance and allocation controlled by the government of the people, not by the bankers of the oligarchs.
Great article!
A new world order is starting, when inclusion of the excluded is the theme. This is more than just a glorious historic moment; it marks the typing point of a radical change for humanity, opening a new era when distinctions between the ‘have’ and the ‘have nots’ will eventually fade away. That is, it guarantees that human equality will be achievable.
This article must be shared with everybody we know. Thanks, Pepe.
Putin’s/Russia’s glaring geopolitical error has been their fruitless pandering to the West for far too long despite being rebuffed at every turn (NATO Membership request to name one ). Understandable for the 1st decade and a half since 1990 while in recovery/catch-up mode, but even in 2008 holding onto hope that the Obama Administration would have the ability/political will to influence US MIC BANK-CORP. most naive. Remember Obama’s BS line to Medvedev, ‘I’ll have more flexibility in my 2nd Term’, yeah fracking right, on the very last week of it, he gave Russia 72 hours to pack their US Consulate bags . . . . . and all the while Sanctioning Russia (Economic WAR ), destabilising their few spheres of influence in Eastern Europe and Syria and to top it off, placing WMD’s in former Soviet satellites.
The concertinaed Dehumanisation of Russia/Russians these last 10 years has made me, a non Russian, sick to the stomach, I’m sure many other westerners also. In stark contrast, you only have to mention Israel’s treatment of Palestinians and you’re a RASCIST, and as the saying goes, ‘If you want to know who rules over you, find out who you’re not allowed to criticise.
The most vociferous and dogged detractors of Russia, regardless of a Red or Blue US Administration, are the dual US citizens who are Top-Loaded at the Foreign /State Departments. drafting Policy. Who controls the Western Central Banks, thereby coordinating the Sanctions? Who controls vast swathes of the MSM global propaganda machine? Watching Bibi receive a Standing Ovation in Congress was a Huge Tell, a War Criminal receiving plaudits, recognition, from Satanic US House Members . . . If you’re looking around the poker table for the Patsy and can’t find him, it’s YOU!!!! A big slap in the face was watching Bibi’s Quarterly (more than any other leader ) visits to the Kremlin, a fracking genocidal maniac, who despite his country being armed to the teeth with Nukes, was drawing join the dots pictures of Iran in Congress with Le Bomb in 5/10/15 no. still 20 years on.
Masters of deceit, blaming everyone else and their dog for the world’s ills, is The Zionist Playbook. Mouthpiece Blinken who fits every category I’ve described above sat down with Lavrov (didn’t look him in the eye too much ) and discussed with him US concerns about Russian troop movements in Russia, dismissing with near contempt Russian concerns regarding Private Contractors/NATO, arming & training Nazis, Loose Cannons, Jihadis, Pikers and Grifters on Russia’s border.
“Putin’s/Russia’s glaring geopolitical error has been their fruitless pandering to the West for far too long despite being rebuffed at every turn…”
And yet here we are at the end of the empire and the birth of a new world. Could it be that those who continually think Putin’s strategies are not aggressive enough are not looking at the long game, and/or have expectations that multi-vector, complex geopolitics should always progress in a linear fashion?
If the rebound from the demise of the Soviet Union to the birth of a united Eurasia only took a 30 odd years, I would conclude this is a massive and rapid success. And if we get through this without a massive, hot world war, I would suggest that Putin gets monuments all over the world for saving us all from nuclear oblivion.
As to the Zionists, again, Russia has played the long game, keeping dialogue and cooperation to a degree with them to keep them calm and controlled. And here we are, with Iranian airspace likely to soon be closed off from Israeli attacks, soon to be normalized relations between the Arab world and the Iranians, and with Iran and probably Syria figuring to be major nodes in the BRI. And Israel’s sugar daddy is facing economic collapse. Which means that Israel will have no choice but to pivot to become a normal nation if it wishes to survive the lack of US dollars supporting it’s apartheid regime. No more privilege accorded to them, just another normal country. So yeah, if we got to this place by placating the Israelis for years, and allowing them a little bit of a slack leash to act like maniacs, well it certainly is unfortunate for the Palestinians and Israel’s neighbors, but in the long run everyone is better off. Greater war averted is always a net plus for the entire world.
on point, my good sir/madam. strategic patience is the game…
Indeed a new era is ante portas. I may be a bit out of frame here but an article or an extensive comment by Mr. Escobar or any other specialist regarding the role and possible fate of other areas e.g. Africa and SouthEast Europe (Balkan protectorates) could be of interest.
Thank you
This is really quite amazing.
Let us not forget that Georgian, Armenia and Azerbaijan were largely ruled by Iran for hundreds of years – until Imperial Russia and the USSR took them by force. Historically, these two divergent cultures have been clashing for a long time.
Both Iran and Russia are protecting Christian Armenia – against the wishes of “Christian” NATO. Large numbers of Armenians live in both Russia and Iran.
Does anyone know if the China/Iran 25-year strategic deal involves technology transfer from China to Iran? More generally, does China transfer technology to the South? That would be a good indication of whether the Chinese are really serious about sharing prosperity with the South
They are getting technology transfer from around the world in the mail without even asking. How is that for a curious notion?
Describing it as the lineaments of a Eurasian Post-western world can even be improved. I would say it is the lineaments (of the renewal) of a new Classical World. The is the World that is the ancient and true heritage of most nations and men. The heritage contains the best events that happened in Classical Egypt, Rome, Greece as well as the best events in Classical Arabia, Persia, India and China. As for the New World, its heyday and practices that benefited mankind once upon a time are probably long gone and vanished. We had better define our identities as Classical citizens which is and was always the best IMO. This does at all not mean war with the New World but a parting and separation of ways until a just and fair balance of the New world and Classical World is agreed.
As the sun sets on the West, so the sun rises on the East.
Those of an independent persuasion can only rejoice.
Thank you Pepe, and Saker.
Here’s another development that should really warm the cold hearts of the Anglo Americans, their European allies, and their regional proxy nations (cough, India).
Russia, China, and Iran has just begun naval drills in the highly coveted Indo-Pentagon/Pacific ocean.
And if there is one thing that will massively trigger Anglo American snowflakes of all political ideologies, it’s when their “enemies” come together to challenge their jealously guarded military supremacy.
Enjoy!
Iran, Russia, China begin joint naval drills in the Indian Ocean
https://thecradle.co/Article/news/6050
Pepe rightly sums up the gist of the anxiety that characterizes the present Geopolitical moment :
“One of the crucial geopolitical questions of our time is how an emergent, supposedly Chinese hegemony will articulate itself. If actions speak louder than words, then Sino-hegemony looks loose, malleable and inclusive, starkly different to the US variety”.
This YouTube video illustrates better than a thousand words how the West is collapsing right under our eyes while this other video shows the contrast of the Chinese promise in what comes after Western-Modernity”.
To possibly relax amidst the ambient anxiety, it is imperative to try to comprehend the development strategy of the soon to be Chinese hegemon.
Here is how Pepe sees it in his own words :
—- “A new Eurasia-led order encompassing the vast majority of the world’s population is a work in fast progress. China using Eurasia as the larger stage to upgrade its global role, in parallel to the fast-evolving Sino-Russian-Iranian interaction, carries larger than life implications for the Western gatekeepers of the imperial ‘rules-based order.’
—- “a Eurasian-based clearing network designed to compete with SWIFT”
—- “The de-Westernization of globalization, from a Chinese point of view, does involve a completely new terminology (‘community of shared destiny’).”
I’m afraid that this kind of vision is emotionally trapped into the noise of the day and is thus not well reflecting the big picture. Let me try to sketch why I mean to say.
1. Swift is a technology of the past that was developed in support of the US dollar. According to insiders China has taken an advance of 10 years on the US (6-7 on the EU) in the field of Fin-tech. Its international payment solution is presently been made available to the world of international commerce as one package combining – the digital Yuan – and foreign-trade block-chains.
These technologies don’t impose the adherence to a Chinese institutional platform that would be in competition with a Western platform. Chinese are pragmatic. What they offer is available on a case by case model. And the cost of transferring money or filling papers is cents in comparison to the dollars it costs today using banks and Swift.
To grasp how this system works in real life watch the following 2 interviews of Richard Turrin who is one of the most knowledgeable English speakers about the subject :
”China’s Central Bank Digital Currency by Fat Tail Investment Research”
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rf545YlSJiw"<"Big Tech in China and the Digital Yuan by Oriol Caudevilla".
2. “A new Eurasia-led order”.
China’s vision is holistic and starts from the priority of its own “internal circulation”.
What does that mean ?
— US sanctions have taught China that to avoid being bullied it needs to be self-sufficient in technology.
— Chinese Animism+ (Chinese Traditional Culture) will be at the root of the production of new goods that are adapted to the order of priorities of human life (1. the reproduction of the species. 2. individual happiness and the reproduction of societies).
This will stand in stark contrast to the present priorities of corporations that are focused on the generation of profits while poisoning the habitat of life.
It is at this point of the reasoning about the big picture that originates the idea of “a community with a shared future”… and an addition to this idea is germinating presently that says that the future shall be ecological or shall not be at all. So the formula will necessarily be adapted to “a community with a shared ecological future”.
— The Chinese consumer market is so vast that, by necessity, it will form the bulk of China’s activities and what works in China shall by osmosis then be adapted by the rest of the community with a shared ecological future…
— Internal circulation has recently been made the Yang polarity of the Chinese nation. Its Yin polarity is its External Circulation”. And this Yin polarity follows the lines of the “flying geese pattern of development” that had been developed by Kaname Akamatsu in the 1930s.
So how is China applying this model ?
First step : Chinese internal circulation.
The internal circulation, operated by a well-to-do 20% of the world population, will procure a solid “Internal Background” for the external circulation : China needs energy and resources from the rest of the world. Its population also wants to have access to externally produced goods like fashion, arts, and commodities…
Second step : “East-Asian regional Bloc” (Regional Economic Bloc = REB)
This Chinese internal background is extended into an “East-Asian regional Bloc” comprising 33% of the world population:
— first with ASEAN (South-East Asia). Presently ASEAN plays the role of a backstage for the Chinese internal background (extensions to Chinese production chains)
— presently with RCEP = ASEAN + North-East Asian Confucian Area (South-Korea, Japan, China) + some border lands (Australia, New Zealand)
— In the near future : the North-Eastearn Economic development area (North-Korea, Eastern Siberia, three Chinese Northern Provinces), that is in negotiation since a long time, soon is going to burst into the most active economic area in the whole world (Investments from Japan, South-Korea, China, Russia, …)
Third step : Eurasia
From a Chinese perspective the geographic location of Eurasia is the obliged passage of its communication lines with Africa, Europe, and the Inter-Continental-Area. This is central to Chinese calculations because the potential exchanges with Africa, Europe, and the Inter-Continental-Area are nearly limitless …for China, for the East-Asian Regional Block, and for the Eurasian nations themselves. This is how the New Silk Roads have to be seen as a win-win opportunity for all..
Eurasia is one ensemble of nodes in an open system wherein information flows freely from node to node inside their own ensemble and with nodes from other ensembles. In such a system each node is doing its own business (internal circulation) while freely exchanging with the other nodes (external circulation).
In light of this the idea that the future Geopolitical order will be an “Eurasia-led order” badly misinterprets China’s vision. This idea rather better corresponds to an ideal Russian vision of development.
But Russia and China have their own perspectives that are related to their own specific context. This is why these countries feel better off with a very close relationship, based on the deep trust between their leaders, than with an official alliance that would only hamper their present agility…
So the next summit between President Xi and President Putin will most probably focus on the announcement of some specific and concrete actions like for example — the adoption of the digital Yuan as favored International payment system — the announcement that China stands firmly behind Russia’s actions against some infrastructures of Nato, the US, and Britain — the announcement of an agreement about a new long term oil and gas supply contract — and so on.
3. Pepe is evidently right that China’s vision comes at the cost of “The de-Westernization of globalization” which will come with a completely new terminology. The same can be said about the coming rejection of Euro-centrist concepts in the sciences, in the arts, and so on…
But when will Pepe finally integrate “the great convergence of Late-Modernity” in his analysis ? Geopolitics can not escape the side-effects that Western Modernity has accumulated over the last centuries and that now start to threaten life on earth…
Obrigado, Pepe and thanks Saker. It is great to be able to see the big picture and scope of changes ahead.
Yet, after reading your many well informed summaries and compilations of the new Eurasia + South economic & diplomatic consolidation updates, I still have a nagging question.
On what basis, the Western press continues to propagate unchallenged disinformation pertaining the true sizes of the economies outside Western coercion and influence? Take for example, the Russian Federation. We are told repeatedly by Western (Media) propagandists that Russia’s economy is the size of Italy or the size of NYC budget. On the same breath, the same Western propagandists tell us that 40% of European energy needs are supplied by Russia to explain away European and NATO’s reluctance to fully support Ukraine vs Russia.
How can the supplier of 40% of European energy needs be comparable in economic size to NYC’s budget? How can the RF economy be the size of Italy which is one of the PIGS (Portugal + Italy +Greece + Spain) lightweights in relative size of the European economies?
Adding the factoid that Russia’s Energy revenues are now 10% of their overall GDP adds more clarity to the picture. Russia has had to diversify the economy to insulate from geopolitical sanctions and targeted energy markets manipulations. RF is either very close to becoming an autarky or it is already one country that can produce everything it needs, At least to me it becomes crystal clear that the size of the Russian economy must be many times larger than that claimed by the MSM propagandists. Similar things may be happening in Iran although there is very little information out there concerning these matters.
Another wonderful article Pepe – bringing in all the strands to show a more complete picture.
@Sun Tzu
This is the reason as Pepe points out above –
“…. Iran is one of the leaders of the Global South. Russia, deeply implicated in de-Westernizing global governance, holds a unique position – diplomatically, militarily, as an energy provider – as the special conduit between East and West: the irreplaceable Eurasian bridge, and the guarantor of Global South stability. All of that is at play now…..”
The collective “West” suppress and lies about the real Russian economy – using their stock exchanges and currency speculators i.e. the Western Banking/Financial/Rating Agencies and financial media (Bloomberg, FT etc). And on top of that – their illegal Sanctions – to try and stop the growth of the Russian economy and destroy it. (Iran has suffered these sanctions for 40 years).
Russia is irreplaceable and guarantees stability of Zone B/Global South.
Therefore the West lies and lies about its economy, its leaders, its energy potential etc. and sanctions – its all they have!
Easily explained. The ‘western’ narrative is correct in stating that the Russian economy is equal to that of Italy…in Dollar terms…however a more accurate assessment of the real economy is ‘Purchasing Power Parity’…and this is when the real Russian economic position becomes clearer. The use of PPP as an indicator, then offers a more accurate evaluation. Russia is then in 5th position …
I can quote several examples from my own experience. A visit to Thailand…parts of Bangkok seemed like swampland, parts such as local supermarkets were like any i see in London….just as my visit to the USA and an excursion to a relative living in Delaware placed me right in a swamp but moving on to New York i was in a developed area. So…in Thailand i noted a nice teapot…it cost $1. I queried this…surely it should cost more than $1?…the Thai shopkeeper assured me that in Thai currency, that $1 would feed his family for one week. In New York, the same type of teapot was $15 at that time, when $150 was the federal minimum per week, on social security payments.
So in terns of pure dollar exchange rate, the Thai economy is a real basket case…in PPP terms, the Thai economy is what it is, a thriving, dynamic, highly upwardly mobile society…
A while ago i made a statement about Byelorussias looking at the western European price levels and saying to me they would like to have a better standard of living as shown by the higher Euro price levels. I pointed out the reality that in PPP terms, they were not doing badly at all and should not think they would be better off dealing more with the EU. I was in Hungary at the precise moment when their price levels exploded from the former state regulated pricing mechanism to a free-floating currency. Viennese pensioners had up to then arrived by the scores of busloads every morning, with Viennese telling me that their low Austrian pensions were improved precisely because the bus trips across to Sopron allowed them to have breakfast, lunch and dinner in Hungary at super low price levels. The Hungarian restaurants enjoyed a boom and all Hungarians said that they were delighted with this trade as it made them more prosperous. Then came the currency revaluation and overnight, it killed the bus trips…the Viennese pensioners found prices to be as high as in their own Viennese cafes and so they didnt bother to go across to Sopron anymore…and the Hungarian cafes had to resort to extra services, such as offering to wash my car and polish my boots, as i ate in their cafes. So whilst before, in PPP terms, Hungary had been doing well, the currency re-alignment to European levels, made the Hungarians feel poorer…
@Analyst
I agree PPP is a better indicator of world economies than GDP, but its not as simple as that.
Your comment is at the periphery of the matter, my comment above is at the heart of the matter – PPP still doesn’t reflect the real Russian economy due to its suppression and lies by the collective “West”. Pepe clearly stated why they do this.
Congratulations on some comments here.
Pepe just linked this on his Twitter feed, but what is nice, is that he says to check out some ‘smart, informed comments’!
Stay smart, stay informed and I guess we will be famous ;-)
But most of all, let’s work to get back to a peaceful world configuration.
Coincidentally (or not), Russia, Iran and China have this in common that they were all thoroughly devastated by the Mongols and then spent centuries under their yoke. In fact they were the 3 major essential cogs in the Mongol Empire. You could almost say: control the 3 and you will control Eurasia. And now the US has managed to make itself the mortal enemy of all 3 at the same time, pushing them together. Today the 3 have a chance to face the new invader together (although it’s probably an insult to the Mongol Empire to compare it to the US Empire).
V
I concur with you.
How do you see this confrontation developing?
I am drawn to reflexion from the Frank Herbert’s fiction book, Dune, popularized in movies and TV mini series. The threat of destroying the Spice trade by killing the giant worms of Arrakis is what caused the power to shift from the sitting emperor to new emperor Paul “Moadi” Atreides.
As Tarik shared on a recent guest analysis at the Saker.is the US delegated NATO to create tension so that Russia can not sell natural gas to Germany. This is to let Europe remain under US military and economic exploitation. Tarik also reviewed that the US delegated to the Abraham Accords (Israel, Saudis and Emirates) the confrontation against Iran and the Shiite axis (Hezbollah Lebanon, Ansarullah Yemen, PMU Iraq). Meanwhile, the US delegated to AUKUS (Australia, UK, USA) and Quad (Japan, India, Taiwan, USA) the confrontation with China.
Why these 3 fronts? Because the foreign policy of the United States and before that of the United Kingdom is to use the naval supremacy to dominate world trade and impose on China conditions of a defeated nation. The problem is that Russia, being the largest oil and gas producer, can supply China over land in Asia thus nullifying the US Naval advantage. Similarly, the events in Kazakhstan caused the former Soviet republics of Asia to shelter around the Russian Armed Forces for their safety and refuse to receive bribes from American envoys, NGOs, etc. That is, the Oil and Gas produced in this region is also controlled by Russian security forces even though Chevron is active in Khazastan. Third point of the triangle, Iran dominates the Strait of Hormuz where 25% of the world gas and oil supply maritime route is pinched by geography. In other words, Russia, China and Iran control 50% of the world’s energy output.
First let’s look at the impact of the troika Russia, China and Iran coordination.
In any confrontation in Eastern Europe, the US is overextended and without sufficient forces in NATO…..therefore Russia can and has threatened the Eastern front of NATO with capability to overwhelm them……NATO is hastily trying to reinforce this eastern front but it is too late the Russians have deployed a very well armed force capable of crushing NATO in all directions.
If anything bad happens the Russians may paralyze all gas pipeline operations in the direction of Europe…. Europe has reserves for 18 days and thus asks for conditions of capitulation before it dies of cold.
At the same time that the Russians supply China, but Iran paralyzes the strait of Hormuz and stops all ships trying to cross from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman
The western economy is paralyzed, the US/ Western financial center goes bust. The stock markets fall, the price of energy and food skyrockets. The dollarized western economies collapse totally busted under the weight of out standing liabilities and junk derivatives. The later are gargantuan and are based on Oil not costing more than say $100 / barrel but it might go to $1000 / barrel easily