Various sources are reporting that Israel is considering “accepting the principles” of a ceasefire plan backed by the USA and Egypt. Get this: the plan does not even *mention* Hamas by name and it would be the PA (Abbas’ Fatah) which would sign the plan on the Palestinian side. Yes, you read that correctly. Let me repeat:
The Palestinian franchise of the Shin Bet a.k.a. the “Palestinian authority” would sign an agreement with Israel over Gaza in which Hamas is not even mentioned.
Is the Hamas leadership going to accept such a monstrosity!?!
I sure hope not, but I am getting this bad feeling in my gut…
They want to give fatah, rather than Hamas control over rafah. I don’t think this will end up meaning much at the end of things. If it will end Israel’s attacks and does not bind Hamas with ‘disarmament’ it could be a viable resolution to this disaster.
I don’t think Israel wants to go into an election with this on it’s plate. They probably figure that giving this lever of power to fatah will help re-legitmise them with Gaza. Livni may think she might be able to spin the above strategy as a victory.
However, if fatah does make this deal, it will only suffer it’s people’s wrath whenever egypt or Israel decide to close the border. It will probably end up being the nail in the coffin for them.
This kind of deal would be great for Hamas: it would open the border for humanitarian aid, and allow Hamas to buy more time for itself, and let it concentrate on getting it’s hands on some real Hardware.
Masoud
I’m afraid there is only so much Hamas could do. Their rockets have no effect on Israel. Hizbollah’s rockets weren’t great either but they had longer range and they were closing down a much bigger portion of the country. They were also doing damage and many of them were striking Israeli military bases in northern Israel. They could also fire over a hundred a day.
And brutal though Israel was in Lebanon, they had a fear Tel Aviv could be hit so they had a limit on their escalation. Hamas can do nothing of the sort. The suffering in Gaza is far worse even than Lebanon. Made worse still by the winter time.
There is only so much that human flesh can take. Their own population may cry out for relief.
And this is not the end, even if this ceasefire takes place. Hamas may think it best to preserve her fighters, go into hiding and confront the Fatah thugs that enter.
This is not a fight of a single day. Patience for the right opportunity will pay off.
Also, I predict that after burnishing their confidence here, Israel will soon mistake Lebanon for Gaza and pick the wrong fight.
As an aside, what weapons do you think Hizbullah could acquire that would change the balance favorably. Once they are part of the ruling government, this summer, I’m thinking they will have access to things they couldn’t get before.
What do you think, Saker?
I have believed for a long time that the Shias of South Lebanon are going to end up being the sacrificial lamb that frees Palestine from its tormentor.
It is because so many of them are the only ones willing to be that sacrificial lamb of truth and justice.
If you know about the story of Karbala, and you combine that with the faith and belief of the true believers in justice that reside in South Lebanon you would understand that this is their destiny.
It is not difficult to see that the once oppressed Shia of South Lebanon are now leading the legitimate resistance as opposed to Al Qaeda, the fake resistance, that serves the interests of the oppressors.
You can also see that the puppet leaders of countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan are working with the oppressors because they fear the Shia leaders in Iran and Lebanon whose example and leadership appeals to their people.
They would prefer that their people follow Al Qaeda than follow the Shia.
Haaretz ticker says Hamas political chief Meshaal to meet with Larijani in Damascus. Will Iran advise him to hold out? If so what can they offer in terms of help? It seems significant, though.
Extremely optimistic piece in the Guardian arguing that Hamas will come out of this much stronger politically and that Fatah will either have to join the resistance or become irrelevant.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/08/gaza-israel-hamas-us
@everybody: I am kind of tired right now, so I will only give very short answers. I apologize about that.
@Lysander: weapons don’t matter that much in war, really, at least not in the wars like 2006 or the war on Gaza. Rockets are helpful, but they don’t determine outcomes.
@Mar: I think that while they Shia of Lebanon will have to carry the burden of eventually defeat Israel, I also think that they will survive this. I really sincerely believe that Hezbollah will eventually triumph over the racist Zionist ideology and replace the ethnically ‘pure’ ‘Jewish state’ with a democratic state of all the people of the Holy Land, Palestinian and Jewish.
@Lysander: Larijani is a smart old fox and he will tr to hammer some sense into Meshaal, but I doubt that Meshaal will listen. I hope I am wrong.
@Robert: unless the rank and file Ezzedine al Qassam soliders refuse to lay down arms under such ridiculous terms, Hamas will end up being the looser here. Yes, they will reap some benefits form *looking* like they fought Israel, but remember that the same can be said of Saddam. And look how Sadddam ended. Winning is not about looking, its about winning, and so far Israel is far from having been defeated.
Good nite everybody!
Rockets fired from Lebanon hit northern Israel:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/08/gaza-israelandthepalestinians2