It looks like Poroshenko’s days are numbered. His most likely replacement? The extreme right.
originally written by The Saker for Russia Insider
So the “great genius” of Ukrainian military strategy, the man who promised to organize a victory parade for the Ukrainian army in Sevastopol was fired.
Officially, of course, Ukrainian Defence Minister Valerii Geletei submitted his resignation which was accepted. But the truth of the matter is that Heletey was sacked for gross incompetence and for making idiotic claims that the Russian military had used two tactical nuclear weapons at the Lugansk airport. The question is, of course, whether that will solve Poroshenko’s problem.
After all, if Geletei promised a victory parade in Sevastopol, Poroshenko promised one in Donetsk. He did get one, but not the one he hoped for: a parade of Ukrainian prisoners followed by street-cleaning trucks. Poroshenko also promised to liquidate the “terrorists” in a matter of days, but instead his military suffered a crushing and most humiliating defeat. Finally, Poroshenko did go to the US to get a special ally status for the Ukraine, a conference of “friends of the Ukraine”, lethal aid and lots of money. In the end, he got nothing besides standing ovations and smiles. The critical question is, why did the US gave nothing meaningful to Poroshenko? Could it be that the US has decided that he is unable to deliver anything useful?
Most analysts agree that the Ukrainians are about to attack Novorussia again and that the only reason for the current “kind of” cease-fire (the Ukrainians are continuing to shell and kill people every day) is that the government in Kiev does not want to take the risk of yet another humiliating defeat right before the elections. But as soon as the elections are over the regime will resume the war. It is quite possible that the US has decided that Poroshenko cannot be trusted with this task again.
The rump-Ukraine is officially a parliamentary republic and president’s powers are limited. The current prime minister, has in reality more power than the president, especially over budgetary decisions which is what really matters. Which leaves Poroshenko the title of Commander in Chief of the armed forces, no necessarily a safe title to hold in the current situation.
Things look very grim for Ukraine. There is a very real possibility that many deathsquad leaders (aka “volunteer battalion commanders”) will make it into the Rada (parliament), that extreme right-winger Lyashko will become the next Rada Speaker and that the next Rada might be generally even more extremist than the last one. The cold season has barely started and already there are shortages and protests in many places. The economy is dead and in free fall.
What all this means is that Poroshenko is in a hopeless situation and that seems to be the conclusion in Washington too. The question now is who would the US appoint to replace him? Yatsenyuk or Turchinov are probably the best candidates, but just as the US lost control of al-Qaeda/ISIS in Syria and in Iraq, there are increasing signs that it is losing control of the situation in Kiev and it is by no means sure that a 3rd Maidan would leave these two men in power.
Will the US turn to the extreme-right next?
Under extreme stress rats attack one another.
Rats attacking one another is evidence of extreme stress.
Extreme stress is a function of many factors.
Extreme stress encourages reactive rather than considered thought.
Reactive thought tends towards prejudgements leading to exacerbation of extreme stress.
War is not a “zipless fuck” -there are always untoward consequences.
Smart strategy should encourage
extreme stress.
Personally I believe the U.S. will let Poroshenko fall and allow the situation to sink even further. I think they finally realize there is no overt military solution for NATO and the Ukrainian army will take years to become a professional military force.
Politically the U.S. will want to distance itself from the Right wing elements that will eventually run what is left of the Ukraine. In the meantime the country will totally collapse.
My view is that the Anglo-Zionist ‘Plan ‘A – a straightforward takeover of an intact Ukraine has irrevocably failed. There is now no realistic hope of an intact Ukraine.
Their ‘Plan B’ is to install a ‘death squad’ government to reduce the state to a destabilised stae similar to Libya or Syria. This will block energy supplies to Europe by sabotage or by simply stealing supplies as per normal. The will allow Russia to be blamed as a bad supplier. It wil also ‘f*ck the EU’ by maikng them rely on more expensive and less stable resources. The Nazi regime will continue or even enhance with the attacks against the people of the east, in the full knowledge that it is protected by the US. It may even run sabotage / terrorist actoins into Russia. These may also be run in 3rd party countries in an attempt to frame Russia.
“Finally, Poroshenko did go to the US to get a special ally status for the Ukraine, a conference of “friends of the Ukraine”, lethal aid and lots of money. In the end, he got nothing besides standing ovations and smiles. The critical question is, why did the US gave nothing meaningful to Poroshenko? Could it be that the US has decided that he is unable to deliver anything useful?
“
Not exactly the truth.
Poroschenko got over a hundred million (mostly loan) dollars.
And when a war-ing country like ukraine get infused with money (even though the money may “officially” not be of lethal use… It does mean that ukraine can free up money from other posts, which can go to lethal weapons.
And ukraine has bought hundreds of armored vehicles from hungary, poland, italy, etc. Also weapons from Canada etc.
So usa did officially gi e money to ukraine, and that money is for warfare.
Another example:
Norway gave some millions to ukraines “innovation program” (help research for biz sector).
Sounds innovent?
It is defintly not innocent.
About 1 week after norway had announced their “gift”, Poroschenko decided to slash almost all reasearch spendings!. (In his opinion ukraine did not need reasearch expenses when they needed money for warfare).
So if some “nice” country donates xx millions to a government “innocent” programs, its usually just a way to whitewash dirty money!.
Ukraine gov can easily just reduce their own investments/budgets in any areas they get donations in= efficiently making any donations into ATO instead.
Thats why any “helping” warcriminals are… “Helping and abetting criminals”.
(Even money for “caffee”).
But yes Poroschenko will mostly be replaced eventually.
Usa has done many false flags operations in the world, especially in the last 10,20 years.
Often use an active minority group to overthrow gov (in ukraine: neo-nazis), where a second group takes new office (in ukraine: Zionist oligarchs).
And can easily go a few versions of gov changes. (Double, tripple or quadrupple play).
Like in Egypt and in Iraq.
(Iraq first usa “liberated” it, then they funded ISIS to attack Syria and destabalize Iraq).
Making Shia muslims in regions suffer, and to help Kurdistan to break away from iraq!.
(Usa has alot invested in Kurdistan, and has an interest of it slipping away from the shia muslims).
Shia muslim countries are at “war” (kinda) with Israel.
In mid-September, Joaquin Flores at the Center for Syncretic Studies described this scenario of a US-backed overthrow of Poroshenko, bringing the Nazi’s to power.
(http://syncreticstudies.com/2014/09/15/pravy-sektor-coup-as-isis-scenario-nato-to-feign-a-unilaterial-alliance-with-russia/), bringing the Nazis to power. Then, Flores thinks an ISIS-like scenario might follow after the rampage of the Nazis, with the US/NATO ultimately “forced” to intervene militarily out of R2P.
It may be shocking to some dazzled by notions of the opponents “apparent” ability and agency, but it is of relatively little strategic consequence what the opponents do in any interactive dynamic non-linear system.
Regarding what has happened to Ukraine’s IMF money, this is a hilarious posting by economist Michael Hudson.
http://bsnews.info/losing-credibility-imfs-new-cold-war-loan-ukraine/
If you are into the nitty-gritty as to who is in business and politics in Ukraine and Russia, make a note of the site ‘Dances with Bears’. This man, John Helmer, is the authority.
— Penelope Powell
Personally I believe the U.S. will let Poroshenko fall and allow the situation to sink even further. I think they finally realize there is no overt military solution for NATO and the Ukrainian army will take years to become a professional military force.
—
I agree. Nihilist violence in Ukraine is the goal similar to ISIS in Syraq.
As Saker said in his Counterpuncjh interview. If America can’t have Crimea they will destroy Ukraine and hope that destabilization spreads to Russia
How long until car bombs start going off in Moscow?
It appears to me that Saker is predicting a Neo Nazi breakthrough with these elections
Way to go Count Chocula. Oh well as a Waltzman you get a free pass to Israel. Mazel Tov you loser
@Penelope that article was fantastic.
Somebody could win a Pupitzer Prize by linking Hunter Biden to Kolomoisky’s Neo Nazism and shale gas
And would Cameron be so servile to destroy London banking to satisfy Obama/Kerry’s lust to punish Putin for giving sanctuary to Edward Snowden?
You can all laugh but I think that the prissy Obama was so angry at Putin he destroyed Ukraine to settle a personal slight over Snowden
Annanuki 2:48
I’ve heard Snowden is an operative.
I can believe that, Greenwald too, because all they ever talk about is pissy little computer stuff…its not breaking news…everyone knew about NSA …
I don’t know about Wikileaks leader Julian Assauge (sp?) but I have definitely heard about Snowden…
Cassandra Says:
I think y’all are overestimating how much the U.S. is in control of the situation. They are practiced at this sort of thing but remain totally inept at it. They are too self-involved to get it right when they try to predict how different cultures will act. Their predictions are always wrong and their expectations unrealized.
I believe they thought they were going to re-install the Orange Revolution. As with al Qa’ida and ISIL, the plan with Right Sektor was “Use them now and control them later.” (Come to think of it, that’s what Siemans thought when it financed the rise to power of this lot’s grandfathers. Today’s Nazis have history to guide them in dealing with those backers who thought they could be “handled.”)
The presidential vote showed the Corn Maidan with the dark roots is widely loathed and Yatsenyuk has the charisma of a wharf rat. I don’t think Poroshenko was originally Their Boy, he earned the job. The Ukrainians voted for him because he was running as an independent. They don’t trust any of the parties.
Poroshenko was a cobbled together Plan B, and I doubt that there is a Plan C. Obama is dumbfounded that everything he was confidently told in briefings would happen did not happen, and nobody briefed him to expect massacres and the rise to power of the ultras. He’s now acting as we have come to expect: when in doubt, don’t.
Studying recent electoral results and polls has convinced me that most Ukrainians do not want overt Nazis in power but this does not amount to revulsion. They are going to vote this time for whichever group they think will impoverish them the least. Good luck with that. There’s no disaster-free option on the ballot.
It’s hard to see what options the US has other than supporting Porky. The hard right wants to shred the Minsk accord, which would take the political hobbles off of NAF and their supporters in Russia. Poroshenko is doing all he can to accommodate the hard right while keeping the fig leaf of the Minsk accord. The hard right is likely to launch a major power struggle once it sees its position strengthened after the election. The bright spot for the status quo tendency is the fractiousness of the hard right that could buy a little time for Porky.
My bet would be on a power struggle toppling Porky and maybe some attempt by the US to sponsor some sort of “unity government” settlement centered around Yatsenyuk or some other oligarch. Whether it’s possible to form another government that will keep the Minsk accord intact once the hard right attains more power is doubtful.
Poll on European attitudes to “situation in Ukraine” reported here:
http://en.ria.ru/infographics/20141010/193921725.html
Some mild surprises.
Cassandra
Anonymous Anonymous said…
Cassandra Says:17 October, 2014 00:32
“I think y’all are overestimating”; perhaps you should read contributions.
“Their predictions are always wrong and their expectations unrealized.”
The 2nd quote shows that at least you are subject to the first by positing sole agency.
Look on the bright side, they are relatively consistent, of course with a modicum of help from others.
” Anonymous said…
It may be shocking to some dazzled by notions of the opponents “apparent” ability and agency, but it is of relatively little strategic consequence what the opponents do in any interactive dynamic non-linear system.
15 October, 2014 09:59″