Israel’s lack of options – sympathy with the devil?
After weeks of rumors, speculations and not so veiled threats, Israel has finally begun its assault on the Gaza strip. Predictably, it began with F-16 airstrikes at “Hamas targets” and, equally predictably, the hospitals in Gaza are filling up with many casualties (190+ killed and many more wounded). Actually, this is the “least-bad” strategy for Israel as it makes it possible to achieve a number of simple objectives:
- Destroying as much as possible of the Hamas infrastructure in Gaza thereby “softening up” Hamas in preparation of a ground assault
- Killing a number of Hamas officials with the same aim as in above
- Scaring the Palestinians in Gaza, think of it as an Israeli version of “shock and awe”
- Exposing as little Israeli lives as possible (Hamas has proved that it can destroy Merkavas)
- Scoring political brownie points with the Israeli public opinion by appearing “firm” and “doing something”
So far so good, but what comes next?! There the outlook for Israel looks much much bleaker and the choice of easy options rapidly shrinks to very little. Let’s look at four basic possible options the Israelis can pick from:
Gradually phasing out the attacks and come back to some kind of deal with Hamas:
While otherwise not unreasonable, this option is unlikely to be very attractive for the Israelis for a simple reason: it solves nothing, it only freezes the conflict and pushes the hard and inevitable decisionmaking time further in the future. In this logical, the current airstrikes are just a way to bring Hamas to the negotiating table assuming, of course, that that kind of strikes would somehow inspire the Palestinians to accept living in the biggest concentration camp on the planet.
Sustaining an air campaign against Gaza for a long(er) period of time:
Think of it has “crowd control with F-16s”, only unlike what the Americans are doing in Iraq and Afghanistan. For the Israeli politicians this is always an attractive choice – killing Palestinians in great numbers while not risking spilling “Jewish blood”. First problem with this option: F-16 tend to run out of targets very fast, at least when they are used for crowed control. Second problem, this gives no incentive whatsoever to Hamas to do anything but increasing the tempo of its missile strikes at Isarel. Third, this is a PR disaster for the already universally despised “only democracy in the Middle-East”. Lastly, this “solution” really solves nothing, it’s just a more brutal version of the first option (freezing the conflict).
Initiated a limited invasion of Gaza
The danger of that option is immediately apparent to any Israeli politician: the loss of “Jewish life”. Even a limited invasion of Gaza is absolutely guaranteed to result in the death of Israeli soldiers. Still most Jews could be convinced to accept these deaths if they believe that less Jewish lives would be at risk from doing something than from doing nothing. Problem – even once postulated that some limited Jewish casualties are acceptable this option seems devoid of any real military rationale. Think of it, what could be achieved in such a limited attack? As the example of Falludjah has shown, Hamas forces will have no difficulty redeploying deep into Gaza if pressed hard and while in normal warfare retreats are very dangerous to execute, in the mostly urban condition of the Gaza strip Hamas forces will, no doubt, be able to pull back very safely when needed (remember how much time Hamas had to prepare for this invasion). Just “squeezing” Gaza around the edges makes no sense at all, and its not like Hamas needs to get right to the edge of Gaza to fire its rockets (and even short range rockets could then be re-directed at Israeli forces participating in the operation). As with all the options above, the “limited invasion” option achieves nothing real. It could be a feel-good “psychotherapy” for the insecure Israeli public, but the feel-good effect would not last very long.
A full-scale invasion of Gaza
That’s the big one, the option which definitely change the situation on the ground, doubt here, but would it change it for better?
First, that means taking on about 15’000 Hamas fighters plus another 1’000-1’5000 Iz al-Din al-Qassam operators and taking them on in a highly prepared urban environment in the midst of 1’500’000 Palestinians fully supportive of Hamas. Even if Hamas fighter are nowhere near the level of capability of Hezbollah operators, taking them on inside Gaza is a highly nontrivial task. This could also take a lot of time with no easy, fast, victory to show for. Even if the Israelis managed to fully occupy Gaza and take control of all its main objectives, there would be enough Hamas fighters left in the Strip to immediately initiate a resistance campaign. Then there is the issue of the inevitable civilian toll that such an invasion would result in. Of course, Israeli Jews don’t give a damn about killing Palestinians, but just imagine the PR disaster such a butchery would result in for the “only democracy in the Middle East which shares our Western values”! No amount of alarmist warnings about the “new Antisemitism” or the “next Holocaust” will help cover up the horrors of a full-scale invasion of Gaza (although a major war elsewhere, say between India and Pakistan, or another well-timed “9/11” might do the trick).
A full-scale invasion of Gaza also begs the question of the end result sought. To put the Israelis back in charge of a Mega-prison with 1’500’000 Palestinian inmates? That would mean taking on the responsibility of the conditions inside the strip – a logistical nightmare even if taken on only for propaganda purposes.
No, short of simply killing them all, or at least most of them, there is no workable “solution” for the Gaza problem the Israelis are faced with. Nor do they have a solution for the “Hezbollah problem” in Lebanon, or the “Arab problem” inside Israel problem. Heck, I would even argue that Abbas and his Fatah thugs have outlived their utility and that soon there will be an equally frustrating “West Bank problem” for the Israeli leaders to tackle.
The reality is simple – Israel is running straight into the wall of reality: there is no way a state based on racism and violence can survive in the long term. To cling on to their racist dream of a “Jewish state” the Israeli Jews need to come to terms with the fact that the only way to achieve this is to kill or deport the vast majority of Palestinians and that is simply not an achievable goal to begin with. Even more importantly – there is only one viable alternative to the murder or deportation of most Palestinians: giving up the sick dream nightmare of a “Jewish state” and accepting the inevitability of the “One State Solution” of a single, unitary state based on the simple “one man one vote” (the “Two State” nonstarter has already petered out before even coming into existence).
I don’t think that the Israeli Jews are anywhere near coming to accept the inevitability of a non-racist “one state”, not by a long margin, thus the utterly senseless violence with continue *without* any kind of real strategy or vision behind it.
Remember who is ruling Israeli today (at least formally): Ehud Olmert, the guy who totally FUBARed Israel’s idiotic war against Lebanon in 2006. This guys is a born looser, somebody in the same league as Dubya or Saakashvili – expect nothing even remotely reasonable from him. Would Livni & Co. do any better? I don’t think so. I think of Livni as the “Israeli Obama”, “racist imperialism with a human face”: same ugly policies – different person in charge of promiting them.
Olmert and Livni will kill Palestinians simply because that is what they are capable of. There is no need at all for any long-term strategy: the Israelis are not “result oriented” – they have, for a long while already, become purely “activity oriented” with a basic and simple rationale: if there is a problem – let’s just kill more Palestinians.
What is going on in Gaza is senseless. It is also an disgrace for all of civilized mankind who mostly just sits there and watches how the Zionists are going berserk killing and maiming thousands of people in the futile pursuit of a sick racist fantasyland which will never happen.
And the end of this is nowhere in sight.
The Saker
UPDATE 1: According to al-Manar, the number of victims is now as high as 225+ dead and another 700+ wounded. There can be no doubt now that Israel has committed major war crimes (again, what else is new?).
Al-Jazeera report about the first day of bombings in the Gaza strip:
Hamas press conference video:
Iranian TV reports about the carnage in Gaza:
P2O2:
Something is out of this world:
– How come Hamas was not ready?
– How come Hamas was so stupid to provoke Israel?
– What was the real goal of Hamas provocation?
Israel gave clear signals she strikes.
Calling for intifada was a clear sign of desperate weakness.
I wonder how Hamas actions might be connected with Iran’s issue… assuming Hamas actions were “steered” to give Israel a justified cause for a severe blow in return.
Regards
P2O2:
(answering your question in the title)
1) Lebanon
2) US surge in Afghanistan
3) Iran
4) Russia in Caspian Basin
5) Obama’s test foretold by Biden?
6) The End of the world?
@p202:
How come Hamas was not ready?
Who said that Hamas was not ready?
How come Hamas was so stupid to provoke Israel?
Well, its not like Hamas had any other options. Accepting the status quo was definitely NOT an option for Hamas. Besides, you are assuming that Hamas provoked Israel and that is not necessarily true at all. The only way the Palestinians could *not* “provoke” Israel would be by having the good manners to emigrate or, better, die.
What was the real goal of Hamas provocation?
What “provocation”?! Hamas did the only thing it was capable of: shooting back. Now, I agree with Norman Finkelstein that a campaign of civil reistance against the Wall would be the best strategy, but Hamas leaders are just not smart enough for that so lobbing rockets at the Jews was about the only options they had.
This rocket firing business is not to my taste at all, but I see Hamas’ logic here: forcing the Jews to enter Gaza and, thereby, to come into RPG and Kalashnikov range.
That is not a brilliant tactic, but it works.
As for Iran, I don’t think it has anything at all to do with all this. The Iranians (and Hezbollah) are far more sophisticated players than Hamas and they know full well that Hamas is unable to come up with a real stratgegy against Israel, so they express their support for, and solidarity with, the Palestinian people, but they stay clear from any kind of joint actions with them.
Who said that Hamas was not ready?
I did.
I hope you probably do not think that Israel bombing was carried out during Hamas’ declared Open Day for their military installations and the victims were mainly comprised of accidental sightseers?
I do not know Palestinians but I do not think they want to be butchered for “Hamas Cause”. Being butchered is not Palestinian Cause for sure.
Does Hamas really think that Jenin cannot be repeated? Do they really want new martyrs from civilian population?
@P202: I did
Well then you are wrong :-)
I do not know Palestinians but I do not think they want to be butchered for “Hamas Cause”. Being butchered is not Palestinian Cause for sure.
Where have you been for the past months?!?!? Palestinians WERE being butchered for many months already and it’s not like the slow motion genocide in Gaza was not already happening….
The Palestinians are desperate, and they really have nothing to loose. They are literally in a “die fighting or die on your knees” situation so they much rather choose fighting. Make no mistake here – Hamas is very popular and it has the full support of the vast majority of the Palestinians in Gaza and, according to most sources, the West Bank.
You seem kind of out of touch with what is going there. Simply put: the Israelis are trying to cleanse all of Palestine from the Palestinians and the Palestinians are fighting back with the meager means they have. The issue is not 220+ killed Palestinians, but 1’500’000 million totally desperate and disgusted Palestinians who are willing to endure literally any amount of pain to free themselves from the Zionist stormtroopers who are trying to exterminate them.
The Palestinians remember Jenin. In fact, they remember every carnage from Deir Yassin to today’s raids in Gaza (a parital list of these massacres can be found here: http://www.soundofegypt.com/palestinian/adult/massacres.htm). It is BECAUSE of these massacres that they are determined to fight to their last drop of blood. It is BECAUSE of these massacres that they don’t care anymore about Israeli threats.
Fighting back is their best, and last, option.
The “last option” is not an option at all, it’s coersion. :)
Those rockets in the last days were not reasnable option. But I do not issue orders in Gaza, the responsibility is on Hamas side.
Polish leader wanted to “welcome” Russian forces in liberated Warsaw during WWII so they sacrificed half of the city and over 220 000 of Warsaw citizens. Polish Warsaw Uprising (search in Wikipedia) units were equipped in arms only in 50% or less. For 12 men there was e.g. two pistols, 4 carbines and 1 hand granades, and they went against German forces. It was death warrant for Warsaw population only to fulfill then Polish leaders’ hubris. They should be hanged for what they did, not put on monuments as heroes.
I am afraid the similar scenario will develop in Gaza.
BTW. Good text for another post of yours.
En Route to Military Rule
Regards
This comment has been removed by the author.
S. Ossetia just got lucky that Russia had it’s interests in the region, so they’ve survived. Palestinians don’t seem to have any chance.
Washington immediately after the Israeli’s strikes has demanded to stop the murder of innocent civilians from Hamas.
Europe expressed strong concern.
Arabs went out on the streets of their own cities to say how outraged they were.
Russia has no interests in the region.
That’s about it.
The Palestinians probably need to start thinking about leaving the land. There is no other way for them to stay alive.
My own view is that this is first and foremost electioneering. Israeli politicans know that nothing warms the heart of an Israeli voter more than attacks on Arabs – the more brutal the better. So, while the Israelis probably will fire some more bombs on a refugee camp or ‘hamas target’, I don’t foresee any ground invasion. The great Israeli public – who, as WarNerd has said, like most publics, are pretty thick – will be gratified that their government is ‘doing something’ and this war crime will have achieved its prime objective. And no, I don’t mean ‘stopping hte rockets’.
No, seriously – does anybody know how hard is it to get a refugee status for a Palestinian in say the UK?
If the West and the Brits in particular turn a bland eye on the extermination of the entire nation then leave that land that is torturing and killing you. Go to Britain get a refugee get all what comes with the status. Let the Brits take care of the nation they help to destroy. And then if you still want your land back organise resistance in exile or go back and fight.
Firstly – you get your kids and women out of the firing range.
Secondly – you get all the benefits of a Brit passport so at least you’ll have a chance to be tried if captured instead of just murdered.
There is no other hope seem to be on the horizon for the Palestinians. And their leaders just letting the nation to be methodically massacred.
It’s clear that the Jews want to exterminate the nation one way or another. And it’s obvious that the West don’t give a sh.t about that as long as it’s the Jews who get to kill others.
Get your people out of the Hell and let them live and hope that one day they will get their land back just like the Jews did but hopefully without going through a Holocaust.
In the short term the best thing the Arabs could do would be to link up with China and come up with an alternative to the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
In the long run the Palestinian diaspora in the Arab world should concentrate on becoming scientists and engineers and obtain technology transfer from China and India just as China obtained technology transfer from the US.
The European Muslim population need to lobby Europe’s governments to break with the USraelians on this issue.
By the second half of this century Zion will fall, just as the Berlin Wall did. These outbursts of savagery are the act of a vicious and racist elite that senses that history is moving against them.
@ P2O2
Off Topic but still quite relevant.
The Polish Home Army commanders chose the best of several bad options.
With the Russians approaching Warsaw, the Germans had ordered all able bodied Polish men to report for labor duty, digging trenches, fortifications, etc. In other words, slave labor in a war zone. A death sentence.
Also, Warsaw was a key objective for both sides and the Germans were going to defend it to the hilt. The Russians were hardly going to be concerned about collateral damage and Warsaw was going to be as Stalingrad. The city and its inhabitants were doomed no matter what. There was no survival option for it.
Given that, a last stand seemed better than death in a labor camp or in the crossfire between 2 giant armies.
Despite their minimal armory, the Armia Krajowa seized much of the city and held it for more than 2 months, killing some 17,000 German soldiers in the process. I know that doesn’t provide much comfort for a destroyed city, but it beats being wiped out for nothing. Which was the only other option.
Cheers