By Gav Don for the Saker Blog
Israel has dropped repeated hints at a major strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in the near future
Two weeks ago Israel’s prime minister Naftali Bennett announced the start of a new campaign against Iran at the annual conference of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. Here Mr Bennett said “the campaign to weaken Iran has begun”. He described the campaign as multi-dimensional, including moves in the nuclear arena, the economy, cyber warfare, and overt and covert action, but gave no details on specific actions or plans.
Israel has carried out attacks on Iran’s centrifuge plant at Natanz twice in the past two years, with a third incident widely reported a couple of months ago. Further offensive action against Iran is in practice dependent on the agreement and cooperation of the United States. At a meeting of Secretary of State Blinken and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid in October 2021 Mr Blinken stated baldly that if negotiations to restart the JCPOA failed then the US would turn to “other options”. Israel’s defence Minister Gantz visited Washington in December 2021, where he is reported to have tabled the proposed timetable for an Israeli strike.
On April 6th Israeli news sources showed Israeli Chief of Staff Lt General Aviv Kochavi addressing a group of NATO air commanders assembled in Israel. Among his remarks he referred to “…preparations for an operation in Iran that is currently undergoing expedited preparatory work.”
A week before General Kochavi’s speech the US ambassador to Israel, Tom Nides, said on Israeli TV that the US does not expect Tel Aviv to “sit quietly and not do anything” if a new JCPOA deal is struck with Iran. He added ““We’ve been very clear about this. If we have a deal, the Israelis’ hands are not tied. If we don’t have a deal, the Israelis’ hands are certainly not tied,”. He added that whether or not an agreement is reached, “Israel can do and take whatever actions they need to take to”.
An air strike on Iran would probably aim to damage Iran’s Uranium enrichment centrifuges using bunker-busting bombs delivered by either F15 or F16 strike aircraft. Israel is already equipped with the BLU 109 bomb but the penetration capacity of that weapon is measurable in small numbers of metres of combined overburden and reinforced concrete. Tehran has spent the past year visibly building deep bunkers underneath a mountain adjacent to the Natanz surface plant, which are almost certainly too deep for the BLU 109 to damage.
Open source intelligence analysts estimate that the new plant is protected by about 150 metres of overburden. The new chambers are not only deep, but their exact location is also not discernible from surface works. The actual overburden may be much deeper than 150 metres. To succeed in damaging the working chambers of the underground complex even a much larger bomb than the BLU109 will have to be targeted exactly.
The US Air Force has developed a much larger bunker-busting bomb, the 2.5 tonne GBU 72, whose first (successful) test-drop from an F15 took place in July 2021. Israel has a handful of F15s, but no GBU 72s. The GBU 72’s penetration capabilities are not in the public domain but one source suggests that its design specification is to penetrate 50 metres of overburden and 5 metres of concrete. Even that enhanced penetration and blast power may be too little to damage the centrifuge chambers.
Apart from the challenges of targeting, an air strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities demands a 4,000 km/six-hour mission which would probably have to use Saudi air space. The mission would require refuels, either from Israel’s air tankers, or by landing in Saudi Arabia or UAE en route. A month ago Israel carried out a major long-range strike exercise over the eastern Mediterranean, practising air to air refuelling over distance and long endurance missions, and last week concluded a joint exercise with aircraft from the Greek, US, French and Italian air forces, Iniochos 2022, which included an Air Power Contribution to Land Ops component (a long name for ground attack).
Israel has scheduled major joint military exercises for this coming May. Exercises can be used to cover preparations for actual war. An attack would require much more than just the delivery of bunker-busting bombs. Iranian air defences would have to be detected and suppressed in advance, and assets would have to be placed in readiness to recover aircrew whose aircraft were either shot down or lost to accident or mechanical failure en route. An attack on Natanz would be likely to commit most of the Israeli air force and would require active cooperation and support from Sunni Gulf states in the provision of bases for search and rescue, emergency diversion and ground bases for electronic warfare assets.
The large GBU 72 may have marginal prospects for success. Israel may be seeking access to the even larger Massive Ordnance Penetrator. The MOP is a 14 tonne bunker-busting bomb which is reported to be capable of penetrating 60 metres of overburden, where it detonates a 2.5 tonne high explosive warhead with a large kill-radius. Use of the MOP would require use of USAF strategic bombers (the B2 Spirit, in practice) to deliver it.
Another piece of the evidential puzzle in the public domain is the fact (reported by Haaretz in December 2021) that Israel Defence Forces have been allocated $2.9bn to prepare for an attack on Iran. Israel’s air force is equipped with approximately 40 F15 aircraft capable of carrying large ordnance. It’s difficult to see how the bombs themselves can soak up much of that budget, begging the question of what else Israel might be planning to use. It is also, of course, possible that the strike being trailed in public is just an attempt to pressure Iran to come to terms at the JCPOA talks in Vienna.
Three days ago IAEA inspectors reported that Iran has moved machinery used to manufacture parts for enrichment centrifuges into the Natanz plant from Karaj, and that these are currently under IAEA seal. After what appears to be extensive construction work the Natanz site may well have been extended either to a distance from its surface infrastructure or to a greater depth.
Israel captured one Natanz construction plan in 2018, but it seems likely that Tehran will have changed the tunnel design. Public sources show three entrances. These may be duplicate entrances to a single complex or entrances to two or three complexes. Even the size of Natanz’s tunnels and equipment halls is not in the public domain. The early stages of low-enrichment require more centrifuges than later stages (Iran is reported to have reached stocks of 60% U235, and needs 95% U235 to build a functional weapon).
Israel would either need intelligence from inside Natanz to target the halls themselves, or a very large number of bombs and therefore aircraft. Entrance portals are easier to see, and the plan may be to seal the tunnels rather than destroy them. However construction plans for bunkers usually include emergency exits/entrances which are generally concealed from view in innocuous surface structures at some distance from the actual bunker. The Natanz tunnel complex is 2.2 kms southwest of the original (surface) Natanz complex, where its emergency access could be hidden.
Iran is not a state that suffers attacks passively, though it still has an unusual record of being a state that has not directly attacked another state since the Anglo Persian War in 1856. However Iran has actively promoted proxy wars against Sunni states and their clients, and one of its largest proxies – Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Johad – would almost certainly be used to retaliate against Israel for an attack on Natanz. Hezbollah is reported to have a stock of several thousand short-range rockets hidden away on Israel’s northern border.
Historically the use of ballistic unguided rockets and other projectiles has inflicted a highly adverse cost ratio on Israel. A “Qassam” unguided rocket with a 10 kg warhead costs around a thousand dollars to manufacture, while the Iron Dome missile which shoots it down costs a hundred times as much. Israel has been working on this problem and last year announced the successful development of a new 100 kw “directed energy” weapon system (using a laser) capable of destroying small rockets and missiles at a cost of a few dollars in electrical power. The new system (whose name is likely to be Iron Beam) is reported to be functional and is expected to be fully operational by the end of this year but it is possible, indeed likely, that some part of that $2.9bn has been allocated to speeding up the roll-out of Iron Beam units.
It takes just several seconds of laser contact to ignite an incoming rocket, allowing a single Iron Beam to handle many more live targets than Iron Dome. Iron Beam will not be perfect – laser energy is absorbed by rain, dust and cloud – but the new system will blunt a retaliatory missile attack by Hezbollah, and reduce the number of “leakers” – missiles which make it through to be shot down by Iron Dome.
Israel is also presently in the process of carrying out extensive pre-emptive action against PIJ in the West Bank – perhaps a sign of preparations to reduce Iranian blowback.
Another Iranian option for retaliation could be escalation of attacks on Israel-owned shipping. A quiet naval war has already been running between Iran and Israel for at least one year, and possibly two. Israel’s own IDF annual summary admitted to “around 100” maritime operations in 2021, of which “dozens” [so, most] were special operations. Attacks on Iranian shipping appear to have ceased in July 2021, perhaps because Shia militias now effectively control one of the two main road routes from Iran to Damascus, but explained by Israeli sources as a response to the attack on the tanker Mercer Street in the Gulf of Oman by a suicide drone.
Rear Admiral Shaul Chorev, head of the Haifa Research Center for Maritime Policy and Strategy at the University of Haifa, was quoted earlier this year saying “In my view, those who had the last word here were the Iranians. They challenge our freedom of navigation in the Gulf of Aden, and it appears as if we stopped our activities to target Syria-bound tankers. Russia also entered the picture, saying it would guard Iranian oil tankers. The result was that strategically, a new maritime front was opened, distant from Israel and out of the operational capabilities of the Israeli Navy”.
Syria is not the only state whose oil supply is vulnerable to attack at sea. Israel imports all of its 200 kb per day oil consumption by ship. While Israel will probably be able to protect its oil imports at sea, it would find it much harder to protect the much larger fleet of Israeli-owned merchant shipping, particularly when that shipping is sailing in or past Iranian waters in Hormuz. We may see the IRGC step up attacks on Hormuz traffic via drone strikes, short range missile attacks or even boarding and capture. An extreme reaction might be Iran’s use of its large and capable flotilla of Ghadir submarines to sink non-oil Israeli-owned shipping in Hormuz with torpedo attacks.
In response to that Israel is likely to call the US Navy in aid, leading to possible armed conflict between the US and Iran for the first time. Iran might seek to bring retaliation home to Israel by attacking Israel’s gas production platforms and pipelines in the East Mediterranean. The targets are tough – well protected and at great strategic distance from Iran , but just on the doorstep of Syria. A creative and determined mind could probably find a way, and a successful attack would inflict substantial economic and psychological damage on Israel.
None of the evidence of preparations and intent that we can see is definitive. The level of publicity being given to the preparations may just be Israel setting up a visible latent threat as a spur to a new JCPOA, or as a distraction from other less visible moves. May might bring a clear answer, or it might not. We may not have long to wait to see. Both Israel and Iran might do well to heed the old adage – “when you seek revenge, first dig two graves”.
With Russia clearly getting the upper hand in Ukraine, it’s time for the Deep State to foment another war with a nation not on board with the Davos agenda. I trust President Putin will supply Iran with the appropriate S500 or newer systems to make an attack like this very costly for Israel.
Probably right now all Russia’s military industries are working 24/7 on producing military equipment and munitions for Russia’s current military needs (at least they better be). But there is China that could be called on for that. We saw the other day that China delivered equipment to Serbia.I suspect that was because at the moment Russia needs to keep all of her supply at home. The day is quickly coming where Iran is going to have to see Israel as an existential threat to their existence. And make the same decision that Russia was forced to make about Ukraine.An unprovoked Israeli attack on Iran may very well be that day.
When there is no solution to a problem, bombing becomes the only answer.
And not particularly the theater of operations, but at the sources of the troubles regardless of the casulties involved.
If I were a citizen anywhere in the western influence, I would brace for the worst before it become your reality.
This could be the furthest the species is allowed to evolve to, on a universal basis. Regardless of what any planet residing critter thinks they can further accomplish, no one wants to be extincted even if it is forever tethered in space, it can keep its ties and operations too the 3rd planet from the sun going smoothly for seemly ever.
Plus it wont be too difficult to determine if this is the case, just a couple more checks, if it is, bomb here now or bomb there later it doesn’t matter your going to get the same results and ergo, should prepare the same. it can just as easily arrive at your town in the years ahead.
Naftali Benet is a clown pretty much like Nutiyahoo before, the best they can do is ordering IDF-diaper army to killing defenseless women and children in Palestine… And bombing sand castle in Syria. Yes, they are very good at killing people, no doubt about it. But, war with Iran?…. They had better start go away and killing themselves, leave the people alone since there will not be any public support in Israel for such stunt! A Holocaust maker event 2.0…
ha ha ha ha ha…
All the more blindingly evident why Russia must win against NATO.
This may be the long-awaited opportunity to eliminate the Zionist abomination in Palestine. Vive la Palestine !
Saludos, ¿se sabe algo del crucero Moskva? En mi país es imposible encontrar información, solo obtengo la propaganda de un ataque con misiles Neptuno por los ucranianos. Me cuesta creer que entre el Essen y el Moskva no pudieran derribar unos misiles atacantes.
Muchas gracias.
Israel will start a war with Iran under cover of Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine. Will they have a free hand? Can’t see Russia engaging in a second front. Will this force China’s hand to do something? Or India, now that Pakistan has been seized by the West.
Also wondering if anyone can give us a cogent update on where things are standing with Syria.
Russia doesn’t need to start a second front. Iran is more than strong enough. All Russia needs is provide Iran with some S400 or S500s and Israel is going to pay dearly for each sortie into Iran.
It is interesting to note that the bulk of derivatives and other speculative instruments developed by Wall Street, the City of London and their army of lackeys are tied closely to the Price of a Barrel of Oil and the Fed Rate. To stop the derivatives from unwinding (and forcing Wall Street to pay investors) oil prices must be kept artificially high and the Federal Reserve Interest Rate must be kept artificially low. In parallel there must be aggressive and active intervention to suppress the price of gold and silver.
Average Year Year Year Year Annual
Year Close Open High Low Close % Change
2022 $95.26 $76.08 $123.70 $76.08 $100.60 +33.76%
2021 $68.17 $47.62 $84.65 $47.62 $75.21 +55.01%
2020 $39.68 $61.17 $63.27 $11.26 $48.52 -20.64%
The events of the past year which ultimately precipitated the combined arms action in the Ukraine pushed the price of oil to new heights. Constant Israeli threats against Iran only help to keep Wall Street executives from jumping out of windows.
The US is simultaneously instigating war with Russia, China, and Iran.
There is no doubt that WWIII is in the making.
only if one considers wwlll as on ongoing struggle rather than “hot war”. this clearly indicates wwllll is not in the making, if wwlll was the intent the US would declare a no fly zone, prepare a carrier battle group and then await the entire CBG’s arrival to the bottom of the ocean. Respectfully. These are scary times, but US perfidy is exceeded only by its greed and self-preservation. they will continue to poke the bear and both Russia and China will continue to pull away from them militarily and economically. Russia and China have a sense of history, both of the past and the future. the US has neither, only a glorious past that never was and a future that it’s sense of self-gratification deems it must have immediately. Hence no consideration given to consequences of ongoing poor decisions. but like Jack Woltz in The Godfather, the US is not a Sicilian. Putin is. Only an opinion, my friend.
It’s not just greed, it is blind greed. This is the problem. They see $$$ in war, especially via proxies, and are clearly accelerating efforts to exacerbate existing actions (Ukraine) while stoking multiple new ones.
Russia and China are not playing this game. The idea of ‘red lines’ is serious to the east and laughable to the west. Thus the disconnect that will lead to hot war. Not to mention the historical use of war to boost a sagging economy (WWII and the Great Depression).
Thsee greedy idiots are also psychopaths and thinking nothing of killing millions to fill their coffers. Armaments is pretty much the only industry the US has at this point, and the financial sector profits from that. As their greed is insatiable it will likely lead direct confrontation out of stupidity if not by accident (which can hardly be construed as such considering the stupidity necessary to get into such a situation).
I think if Israel continues to interfere with another countries internal affairs it deserves no support and deserves everything it gets.
And it will get a retaliatory response in various forms.
Bombs falling on targets can be detonated mid air by various means by defenders if you know how.
As can missiles. Using w&s technology not firing projectiles at them..
The surest sign that the Israelis are not going to launch an attack is that they are talking about it. They have talked about if for at least a decade now. It is great for shaking money out of the US but that is it. Besides it looks like the government is going to fall. While it might make for a good political stunt going into an election the counter attack wouldn’t.
Do not worry unduly – Israel will not directly strike Irans nuclear facilities – just as Iran will not directly strike Israels nuclear facilities.
This posturing and threatening is standard psyops from Israel. It has been going on for years (with each side regularly demonstrating capability to the other).
At the moment Israel has the upper hand due to its nuclear weapons and almost unlimited support from the US (and to some extent the UK) which includes equipment, intel, and unlimited cash (and some base sharing too).
Israel regularly likes to remind an embolded Iran (who have noted that the US is bleeding in the region, and have shown they no longer the US) that MAD still exists between them (yes Israel could nuke Iran, but Israel would also “vanish from the maps of history” if they did).
As Iran has developed and demonstrated an impressive ability to strike Israel, Israel will continue to posture and remind Iran that they can still do better – and at any time anywhere in the region, including inside Iran, they can “start fires” and destroy Iranian facilities in other countries (like they do to drone factories in Syria, or missile factories in Lebanon).
We can be positive because unlike European leaders, the leaders in Israel and Iran are not stupid and emotional, nor are they “mushrooms” like the US and UK (“mushrooms” is an old political insult, as mushrooms are kept in the dark and fed on horse manure, and they are very cheaply bought and very easily replaced, so being called one is very insulting).
The only way an open war (low level covert war that has been going on for years accepted) breaks out between Israel and Iran will be if the deadly duo of the CIA and MI6 false flags one into beginning.
the smaller the dog the louder the bark and in 2022 a bark is pretty much all that’s left
The lower the IQ, the louder the shout, and Israeli PM has been like that since I forgot but I guess 2000, “Iran is months away of producing Nuclear weapons”…
Well, if Israel attacks, it is going to receive a serious response from Iran and I imagine both countries will be at war in short order.
From Iran’s point of view, their lack of a credible air force is problematic. Israel will most certainly use its air force against Iran, and while Iran has developed a credible missile defense system, I suspect it is not as robust as the S-400 available to it. This leaves Iran vulnerable IMO to any war, no matter how short, with Israel.
Iran should take steps to correct these deficiencies but for some reason is unwilling to do so. Just as I would advocate that Russia take steps to procure naval ships from China in exchange for energy (barter arrangement), I would advocate that Iran take steps to procure military jets from China in exchange for energy (barter arrangement).
One doesn’t have to be a professional military analyst to call this a joint US-Israeli bluff that has been going on for over two decades i.e. bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. As far as I know reading from news sources, no amount of aerial campaign using the biggest of bombs could inflict much damage to the nuclear facilities, because not only they’re scattered all over the place and well defended, but also they are buried under tons of concrete etc. Iran is surrounded by huge mountain ranges and there are a few smaller ones in the middle. Now I don’t know how many bombs one needs in order to flatten for example something like the Himalayas. Of course not that high but high enough like average 3-4 thousand meters. For US or Israel wanting to achieve say a military victory, they must invade and conquer Tehran, that’s it. Other methods don’t work. By conquering Iran, Western powers and Israel will be able to surround Russia from the south as they’re doing it right now in the Western regions using their Ukrainian proxy. That will be a big step toward their ultimate goal of total global dominance.
The best path towards a lasting and prosperous peace is for Tel Aviv to finally recognize the UNR 181 boundries. The 181 boundries remain 74 years later, the sole internationally recognized borders between the Arab and Jewish state.
As long as Tel Aviv refuses to accept the 181 boundries, the Jewish State is at risk of being forced to accept a 1 man 1 vote over the whole of the erstwhile British Mandate territory, 1 man 1 vote would mean the end of the Jewish state.
181 is the best path for a lasting peace
What about the Apartheid INSIDE the “official” Israeli?
And why in the world can a Jew from NY immigrate to Palestine while Palestinians born in Palestine cannot?
1 man 1 vote is what will INEVITABLY happen, sooner or later, but my guess is much sooner than most of us imagine.
I am 58 and I have witnessed:
1) the end of the Soviet Union
2) the end of the EU
3) the end of the AngloZionist Empire (all that is left is momentum)
4) the end of the USA (all that is left is momentum)
I now fully expect to see:
5) the end of NATO
6) the end of “Israel”
I was born a pessimist (I think)
I hope to die as an optimist :-)
Cheers
are they really ready for that -Iron Dome- is far from perfect-it will not save DIMONA……
A pessimist is an educated optimist bro!
I’m OK with Israel continuing to exist as a Jewish state. I don’t believe Arabs and Jews will be able to get along anytime in the near future. But Israel _does_ need to give back every inch of the Occupied Territories, remove the settlers, give up its nukes, and pay reparations to the Palestinians for 55 years of mistreatment.
Oh my, every country must give back territory won in war? Please do not say such things here as Russia is now bravely taking territory gained in war!
Probably most of us here today are living in territory won in war. Are you in favor of returning Crim to Turkey! Heaven forbid!
Боже, храни праведников в России и Израиле.
let us pray that you do not live to see the end of Israel. The consequences of such would be nearly as bad as this current NATO/Krause schwab/nwo attempt to end Russia. As nuclear powers, both are unthinkable, is there anyone left these days who doesn’t want to up the ante and make things even worse than they already are? Such emotional talk thrusts us headlong into WWIII. This war can easily expand if cooler heads don’t prevail. This time, those cooler heads must come from the Russian side since the West has gone insane. Please don’t join us.
As always thank you for your hopeful words
If any truth to this article, good for Israel. Russia can not tolerate a nuclear Ukraine. Israel can not tolerate a nuclear Iran. Russia has every right in the world to protect its borders, welfare, and very existence. Luckily, Israel is in a position to attempt to do the same for themselves. And of course, Israel is no friend of Ukrainian Nazis. Praying for Russia’s and Israel’s success.
Whatevs-
(Quote)
“And of course, Israel is no friend of Ukrainian Nazis.”
(End quote)
You may not have heard what relationships some Israelis have to the Ukranian (people who say “we’re not really Nazis”™).
The original paymasters in recruiting the most recent iterations of Ukranian “racial purity centric, ethnic cleansing oriented & ultra Galician nationalists” were and are Jewish, they hold dual citizenships from both Israel & Ukraine- Some are now permanent residents of Israel (except for their vacation jaunts to Paris, London & other warm or fashionable places?).
IMI has also sold the rights to manufacture Tavor rifle copies in Ukraine, plenty of these have been photographed in the hands of Azov troops.
https://electronicintifada.net/content/israel-arming-neo-nazis-ukraine/24876
Israel should be careful.
Going all the way back to Henry Kissinger and the 1973 War, a regular feature of Israeli warfare is the American cargo planes landing with yet more missiles, smart bombs, and other instruments of death and destruction.
But, I wonder if the Israelis know that those depots are empty now? Just a sign on the door that says all weapons have been shipped to the Nazis.
If you add in the fact that since the Americans are openly preparing for war themselves, the Israelis might find themselves a couple of notches down the priority list. This is new territory for them, or at least not seen after the 1950’s. The Israelis might need to be in ammunition conservation mode.
Note: In modern warfare, when I say ‘ammunition’, I do not mean rifle bullets or artillery rounds. I mean the primary weapon of modern warfare, which are smart, fast guided missiles and the similar missiles used to defend against them.
First, the Gulf States are not, in under any circumstance going to allow Israel to use of their airspace or bases for overflight and stationing. The UAE has been put on notice by Iran that any overt move against Iran either facilitated by them, or supported by them, will be met with an overwhelming response, which would pretty much turn the lights off on them permanently. As for the Saudis, 20-25% of their population is Shia and has been brutally repressed by the monarchy for decades now, so after annihilating the Saudi infrastructure, all Iran needs to do is to activate it’s agents in the country to mobilize and support this population, then sit back and watch as Saudi Arabia tears itself apart.
Second, the Israelis no longer have the ability to just fly over Iran at will, to drop their munitions. The instant that those jets enter within 500 miles of Iranian air space they would be identified and engaged. Any that actually make it to the Iranian border, much less entering it, would not be making their trip home. So it would be a suicide mission just for the sake of what? Taking out a few bunkers around where the Israelis think that the underground plants are?
Third, there is not going to be any covert responses from Iran. The Iranians know the location and disposition of all Israeli controlled military bases, as well as covert intelligence base of ops in and around the region, so the minute the fireworks start, the Iranians will destroy all of those bases, activate their hit squads to annihilate all known intel assets, as well as destroy the entire Israeli surface naval fleet within a 2,000 mile radius.
Finally, all of this would be only within the first few days of the war. By getting attacked, Iran would no longer have any restrictions on it on activating it’s ground game inside of Israel. Imagine absolute chaos in the streets of Israel as hundreds of simultaneous attacks takes place within an urban setting. Pretty much a redux version of the Tet offensive, but ongoing for weeks, if not months. This would annihilate the fabric of Israeli society.
So in essence, NO, the Israelis are neither stupid or suicidal to launch an overt attack on Iran, due to the very negligible benefits, and the ensuing massive cost that they’d have to pay.
With the attack on the Mossad base last month, Iran made it clear that it is more than wiling to overtly and overwhelmingly attack Israeli targets anywhere, and you best believe that the Israelis got this message loud and clear.
All this talk is bluster.
What everyone needs to keep their eyes on is what those old ghouls in Miami and Vegas lead by Miriam Adelson are up to. Those guys know how to wage proper war, and what they’re up to these days is lining up either Pence or another Evangelical dreck of humanity for the White House.
You’ll know that the Israelis are going to attack Iran only when they are 100% sure that the United States is going to be walking down that road to hell with them, hand in hand.
Regarding bunker busters Israel would likely use nukes. It has been reported that they already did this in Yemen.
I did some research and video analysis of 2015 Sanaa clips that hint this maybe the case but failed to found any other works in the same vein (except a mention in Veteran Today and some Bellingcat (!) nonsense). Do you have any other reference?
Isotope analysis of onsite earth samples should settle the case. Why nobody did that?
Black Cloud-
Go re read the posting rules, please. Nuclear weapons use in Yemen is specifically mentioned.
ah ah, _that’s_ why I can’t find anything, anywhere! :-) sorry, won’t do it again.
It is standard m/o for Israel to carry out stab-in-the-back work whilst others are distracted. They already have gone on a rampage against Palestinians, their favorite punching bag.
The key arena is in Lebanon with Hezbollah. The pro-Israel/pro-Saudi opposition will seek a majority in parliament in the upcoming elections, with tons of Saudi blackmail and illegal bribery and fraud taking place. The arrogant pro-Western March 14th crowd will beg Israel to bomb Shia areas and attack Hezbollah if they (pro-Saudi) gain a majority and get one of theirs as president to replace Aoun. Another May 7th will be attempted to dismantle Hezbollah completely; Israel will bomb Lebanon if the internal dismantling of Hezbollah fails, with Saudi, Qatar, and Emirates intervening on the Israeli side. Another civil war in Lebanon is more likely than Israel bombing Iran at the moment. Hezbollah unfortunately is less popular nowadays according to some Lebanese im speaking to. The NGO/Gulf/Soros propaganda is getting too strong due to the weak and corrupt governments in the Muslim world. Many of the Lebanese want normalization with Israel now, at least that’s the case with the non-Shia’s.
Naftali Bennet is a notorious big-noter. A braggard of quite breathtaking arrogance.
He can “hint” all he wants about “a major strike on Iranian nuclear facilities”, and that would be typical of the man.
But facts are facts: Israel does not possess the ability to launch such a “major strike” at such an enormous distance, and if it attempted to do so then the Iranians would laugh themselves horse at how ineffective the strike was.
This is a simple fact: if you strapped the necessary bunker-busters to the wings of an Israeli F-16 then the only outcome would be that the wings snap off at the wing root. And if you fitted a bunker-buster to the underside of that same aircraft then all that would happen is the plane would topple over because its wheels can’t touch the ground.
The Israelis can only do what they always do: attack some inconsequential “soft” target and then crow about how heavy that blow was and how clever they are to think up that plan of action.
Color Me Unimpressed.
They’ve been wanting to bomb Iran since the 80s. There was even a song “Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran.” With the empire dying it will have no fear to do all the evil it always wanted on its way out. The evil government version of a bucket list.
The 1965 song “Barbara Ann” was crudely parodied by war pig John McCain. I don’t think his parody was in the ’80s, but in the ’00s as I recall.
https://invidious.poast.org/watch?v=qV873dFNQFI
But yes, they have wanted to attack Iran since the CIA-installed Shah died, and Iranians did not permit the Empire to appoint a successor.
Remember cowering nervously as GI guys and gals danced on the tables to Bomb., Bomb Bomb Iran back in early seventies in Korea, too nervous to speak of the glories of Jamshed and Isfahan.
It’s amazing how they can run their country, the US, EU, UK, Syria and this Ukraine debacle and still have time to kill up close and personally and not just from their air-conned US taxpayer paid for condos in Tel-Aviv. What a perfect Passover for them, eh?
If Israel does attack Iran, I hope Iran responds with overwhelming force from Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza. Blacken the sun with missiles and turn Tel Aviv into rubble.
Heh, just what the US needs right now – war with Iran.
I’ve been predicting a US-Iran war since 2006 or so. Hasn’t happened yet – but I still believe it will. Because historically any two countries with this much enmity between them usually go to war.
What is amusing is that Israel is contemplating starting it in the middle of the Ukraine conflict – as if the US isn’t already busy. Or maybe Israel is assuming that Russia will finished the war by, say, end of May, so after that Israel can start the US-Iran war, since Ukraine will be a fait accompli.
How is the US going to send hundreds of thousands of troops to Europe to confront Russia when it has to send hundreds of thousands of troops to the Middle East to confront Iran?
Also, how does Israel expect to deal with the problem of Hezbollah in Lebanon without direct US help? Don’t they realize that a direct Israeli military attack on Iran will result in a major Iranian retaliation? And that if it escalates, Hezbollah will likely attack Israel – putting Israel under a missile bombardment that puts every Israeli in a bomb shelter 24×7 for months, causing the Israeli economy to evaporate?
I don’t see Israel doing this because nothing has changed. Israel can not economically afford a war with Iran and Hezbollah without direct US military assistance. Or have they now gotten that? And how is that possible given the Ukraine situation?
If these Zionist Attacks On Iran Happen It’s the trigger for World War III. And this explain why the so-called leftist zionist jews are supporting the Ukie Nazis like this Noam Chomsky scumb. These Anglo-Zionist coalition is the Devil. And the Gulf states are a british imperialist creation like the State of Israel. Saudia Arabia and Israel are sisters. Gulf states are not Sunni this is a Wahab/Salafi propaganda and conspiracy to destroy and divide sunni-shia relations.
Now that Imran Khan has been replaced by a Money-Laundering GriftMonkey, PAK won’t be doing anything controversial like responding to ISR Strikes on IRN Nuke Facilities / ISR Nuke Strikes on IRN – with Nuke Strikes on the Eretz-Yisra’El.
I’ve hunches that:
A) IRN have Dirty-Bombs and FissionNukes OnHand;
B1) CHN/PRK have Nuke Platforms in/offshore of IRN – in case ISR Kills CHN/PRK Advisors;
B2) CHN/PRK may have cut a Deal to smuggle Nukes to IRN in case IRN get attacked by ISR;
C) SYR/TRK would try their hand at DirtyNuking ISR in response to an attack on IRN;
IMO, PAK were the Observer/WildCard in this Scenario.
That being said, ISR Demographics are going to be driven by the “Eagerly Reproductive” UltraOrthodox. With Secular Women Averaging 3 Children Per – ISR are expected to Double around 2050. Looks like they may double every 25 years or so with these Trends. That means there may be a Territorial Expansion Campaign becoming a near certainty in this Century. SYR/LEB/JOR/EGY – all are Vulnerable. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why ISR want IRN Fail-Stated or severely weakened.
Not my Fight.
5 months ago, Israel said it was going to attack Iran. To date it has not happened. They resort to assassinations like the Iran general, and will keep paying a price. This was seen recently in Idlib.
For 2weeks in 2006, they bombed the hell out of Lebanon, and then made the mistake of sending in tanks. Hezbollah had painstakingly built underground tunnels and came out to greet them. The Zionist have never entered Lebanon since that time. The united nations were called in to bring a peace treaty. Hezbollah never asked for it.
As a reminder: when Serbia was bombed nonstop for 3 weeks, the Serbs were still waiting on them to come in. They only armed this side or that to create chaos after. The pattern exists all over the world.
Israeli bombing in Syria, a country at war is all they got left,and it makes them and their juniors in America feel good. They need a boost but the economic war they unleashed is their final undoing.
P.S. years ago, China said ” Pakistan is our Palestine”, and now the USA has succeeded in bribing the always bribed Muslims, but it will not last, as in everything they create to destroy.
In any case, Iran should prepare its warmest welcome for Balfouristani interlopers by land/sea/air – with some Russian technical counsel — and brace themselves for the expected FFs from MOSSAD & friends as prologue,
A pessimist is a well informed optimist.
One must hope that if the diabolical Zionist regime attacks Iran that Iran raises Tel Aviv and all illegal squatter housing in Palestine. There is no hope for the Zionist regime who is presently the biggest danger to their own citizens.