Israel is flexing its diplomatic muscle in support of Mubarak

That figures. Al-Jazeera and Haaretz are reporting that

Israel has called on the United States and Europe to curb their criticism of president Hosni Mubarak “in a bid to preserve stability in Egypt” and the wider Middle East, an Israeli newspaper reports. The Israeli daily Haaretz reported on Monday that the foreign ministry, in an urgent special cable, instructed its ambassadors to key countries, to “stress … the importance of Egypt’s stability”.

(…)

Senior Israeli officials, however, said that on Saturday night the Foreign Ministry issued a directive to around a dozen key embassies in the United States, Canada, China, Russia and several European countries. The ambassadors were told to stress to their host countries the importance of Egypt’s stability. In a special cable, they were told to get this word out as soon as possible.

Good. This clarifies the picture, at least partially.

In the meantime, all the signs are that Mubarak is preparing for a “Tiananmen square solution”, albeit at a much larger scale. Something along the lines suggested by Lysander: letting the situation degenerate into complete chaos and then use force to “restore order”.

The question is: can Mubarak still do that? I honestly don’t know. Most Chinese did probably not support the Tiananmen square demonstrators or if they did, they probably did so in a rather lukewarm way. The popular anger in Egypt appears to be very widespread and intense. It’s one thing to clear a square, and quite another to take back control over many big cities. And what if some military units refuse to obey and switch sides?

Your opinion?

Anonymous on January 31, 2011 · at 6:09 pm EST/EDT

Note:

1) Egypt is far too important for the Empire to lose;

2) The uprising is superficial: The anger of the population has boiled over; the foam will die down. At least that’s what Mubarak is counting on.

3) Further: Nature abhors a vacuum. Imam Khumayni spent 15 years building an infrastructure to be ready when the uprising took place. Nothing similar is in place in Egypt, so the Muslim Brotherhood, the most rooted opposition movement, cannot fully take charge if it wanted to. It’s conservative leadership is playing catchup, while its younger members have been warning them for ages to get with the 21st century.

4) The protesters are united in what they don’t want (Mubarak and his regime) but not in what they do want. Iran was ideologically clear from day 1.

Simply put: I doubt the forces unleashed have the staying power or cohesion to dismantle and replace the state, a result without which Egypt remains in Imperial hands.

So I predict that either

1) Mubarak will weather the storm; or

2) The regime will weather the storm without Mubarak; a military strongman will emerge — note that Egypt is basically a martial law state and has been for decades; or

3) A pro-American-Israeli regime will emerge as the continuation of this one — perhaps headed by our favorite gasbag, Baradei. I suspect that the MB, looking at all the parameters, expects this option to occur in the short term, while preparing for the next round of struggle.

The best option, an independent, progressive, Islamic Egypt, is a possibility but that remains, at the moment, only a small possibility. Not a remote possibility, but a small one. If it were to occur, Israel may even go to war, retake the Sinai, and start WWIII.

In about a week we will have a better idea where things will go. But I think we are getting our hopes too far up over this. I pray that I’m wrong.

Peace

10 Comments

oldman on January 31, 2011 · at 4:17 pm EST/EDT

http://www.palestine-info.co.uk/en/default.aspx?xyz=U6Qq7k%2bcOd87MDI46m9rUxJEpMO%2bi1s7IEKzk%2bWBqLrlNT/Man5gYK9hzi6jA52HYIPvr5tzHyoR9Zn8KURLcc5BKwRH0Pnpqxsx0qE1/tQbMmaPukQGg1/gvC8%2b8LwV2zlIZ6p7N3k%3d

where is the democracy loving press when it comes to the policy state that is Israel? People in Palestine have not effective control over the gangsters that run their lives. Where is CNN- oh a closed millitary zone. so then thats ok- they shrug their democracy loving shoulders and go away. Houses are demolished at will and rebuilding permits are impossible to get, so we get ethnic cleansing on a huge scale, Not a peep. Where is Christiana Amanpour and Wolf Blitzer? Nowhere in sight. Not a word. I hope this link is able to be followed. Its very long.
Anonymous on January 31, 2011 · at 6:09 pm EST/EDT

Note:

1) Egypt is far too important for the Empire to lose;

2) The uprising is superficial: The anger of the population has boiled over; the foam will die down. At least that’s what Mubarak is counting on.

3) Further: Nature abhors a vacuum. Imam Khumayni spent 15 years building an infrastructure to be ready when the uprising took place. Nothing similar is in place in Egypt, so the Muslim Brotherhood, the most rooted opposition movement, cannot fully take charge if it wanted to. It’s conservative leadership is playing catchup, while its younger members have been warning them for ages to get with the 21st century.

4) The protesters are united in what they don’t want (Mubarak and his regime) but not in what they do want. Iran was ideologically clear from day 1.

Simply put: I doubt the forces unleashed have the staying power or cohesion to dismantle and replace the state, a result without which Egypt remains in Imperial hands.

So I predict that either

1) Mubarak will weather the storm; or

2) The regime will weather the storm without Mubarak; a military strongman will emerge — note that Egypt is basically a martial law state and has been for decades; or

3) A pro-American-Israeli regime will emerge as the continuation of this one — perhaps headed by our favorite gasbag, Baradei. I suspect that the MB, looking at all the parameters, expects this option to occur in the short term, while preparing for the next round of struggle.

The best option, an independent, progressive, Islamic Egypt, is a possibility but that remains, at the moment, only a small possibility. Not a remote possibility, but a small one. If it were to occur, Israel may even go to war, retake the Sinai, and start WWIII.

In about a week we will have a better idea where things will go. But I think we are getting our hopes too far up over this. I pray that I’m wrong.

Peace
oldman on January 31, 2011 · at 8:18 pm EST/EDT

I am hoping there might be something between a west hating regime that kills tourists, and a complete Zionist toad regime. Thats probably what the man in the street in Egypt wants too, but the West is not going to like anything less than a toad.
Anonymous on January 31, 2011 · at 8:55 pm EST/EDT

==============
I am hoping there might be something between a west hating regime that kills tourists
==============

Ah, the usual anti-Muslim zionist propoganda … that never was an option and never will be …

Peace
VINEYARDSAKER: on January 31, 2011 · at 9:53 pm EST/EDT

@anonymous: in all fairness to oldman, there have been attacks on tourists in Egypt which were attributed to Wahabi crazies. Now if this not true, which might well be the case, I would like to hear your info.

Either way, I can assure you that oldman is neither anti-Muslim nor Zionist.

The Saker
Anonymous on January 31, 2011 · at 10:30 pm EST/EDT

@ vineyardsaker:

===========
in all fairness to oldman, there have been attacks on tourists in Egypt which were attributed to Wahabi crazies.
===========

The sophistry lies in stringing together “West-hating” with “killing tourists”.

There are all kinds of wackos in the world. But Zionists consistently use the extremists as strawmen to delegitimize genuine, deeply rooted Islamic opposition movements. Oldman’s contrast fed right into that stereotype, whether he intended it or not.

I repeat: a “west hating regime that kills tourists” was never a serious option for Egypt, anymore than the right-wing-militias are a serious option for the next government of the US. Rather: a progressive Islamic government is indeed an option — I argued above in this thread that it is possible but unlikely at this particular stage — but conflating that with a “west hating regime that kills tourists” is simply abhorrent.

Peace

Peace
VINEYARDSAKER: on January 31, 2011 · at 10:44 pm EST/EDT

@anonymous: look, I am telling you that you misunderstood oldman (whom I know well). now, if you want to insist on reading some anti-Muslim or Zionist meaning in his post – be my guest. that is your right.
Anonymous on January 31, 2011 · at 10:57 pm EST/EDT

=============
look, I am telling you that you misunderstood oldman (whom I know well)
=============

Well, Oldman can speak for himself I’m sure :-)

I cannot speak to his intentions — and I’m _not_ judging his intent –, but what he _said_ was patently offensive. Perhaps he misspoke, but the words he used conveyed the typical Zionist false alternatives.

“Look at what is said, not who has said it”

Peace
oldman on January 31, 2011 · at 11:48 pm EST/EDT

west hating I suppose can mean – I hate all western people or – I hate what things their governments do.I am no Zionist thats for sure. It think it’s wise to separate the actions of a government from whole regions of the world when you decide who to hate though. If you are a Muslim, you may imagine US citizens thoughtfully decide what to believe. They are just children and believe what their bought media tells them. Pity them, don’t hate them, and wish them wisdom.
Lysander on February 01, 2011 · at 1:39 am EST/EDT

Anon,

on another board I was once accused of being a hasbarist. I wasn’t sure whether to be deeply offended or to laugh my head off. I decided the latter was probably better for my blood pressure. Take it from me. I’m an Egyptian-American who can’t wait to see Mubarak and his henchmen get out of dodge. But that doesn’t mean I don’t worry about what might come next.