Original link: http://middleeastobserver.net/israel-must-choose-between-civil-war-or-regional-war-senior-lebanese-analyst/
Description: In a recent appearance on a political talk show, senior Lebanese political analyst Nasser Qandil said that Israel is currently going through a sensitive and dangerous period of its history, in which it must choose between “civil war or regional war”.
Source: Al Mayadeen TV : Date: June 8, 2021
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| Editorial Comment from The Saker Blog for updated information only: Since this interview took place, and just this past weekend, there are changes in the Israeli government. Despite these changes, the comments from senior Lebanese political analyst Nasser Qandil hold true to the situation in the main, and the change in the Israeli government does not negate Mr. Qandil’s commentary. In short, these changes are: Right-wing nationalist Naftali Bennett has been sworn in as prime minister, leading a coalition “government of change” that was approved with a razor-thin one-vote majority and in a power-sharing deal with the centrist Yesh Atid under the leadership of Yair Lapid. Mr. Netanyahu will remain head of the right-wing Likud party and will become the leader of the opposition. |
Transcript:
Nasser Qandil, Editor-in-chief of the Lebanese newspaper Al-Binaa:
I personally do not believe that Netanyahu is capable of taking any major action at this stage. The main test (of Israel’s power) was the (recent) Sword of al-Quds (battle). I mean, we would not have never seen a ceasefire if the steadfastness of the (Israeli) occupation entity – in terms of its army, institutions, and society – was strong enough during the battle to bear the burden and the weight of Netanyahu’s decisions.
We have to look back at the image of what happened before the ceasefire: the missiles raining down on the cities of the (Israeli) occupation entity. This has never happened before in the history (of the Israeli entity). They were heavy missiles with explosive heads capable of bringing down buildings. Now you have this new scene. The missile fire (on Israel) continued, and (Israel) could not stop it. Before the ceasefire, (Palestinian resistance forces) had no land access (to outside world), no air force, nor an Iron Dome. Therefore, (Israel) accepting a cease-fire is its acceptance of helplessness, it is a request for US protection.
I believe, according to my personal assessment and readings, that with the ceasefire and its aftermath, since that day, the era of the independence of the (Israeli) occupation entity has ended. The (Israeli) occupation entity has fallen under an American mandate. Even in terms of (forming) the new (Israeli) government, how was this government born? Its (forming) was not even on the table. The government was suddenly born. The US today goes into details. Since (the US) holds the future of the (Israeli) entity in its hands, (it follows this policy:) “I protect you and I fund your (government), therefore, I control your politics.”
Host:
Forgive me for interrupting, but what I meant by the ‘developments on the ground’ is that today Benjamin Netanyahu and the extreme right are talking with insistence about holding, for example, the Flag March on its original date. This may call for action at the grass-roots level. Therefore, the (Palestinian) resistance may take action. We are not confirming anything; we are (just) studying scenarios. However, due to these developments on the ground, the situation might deteriorate.
Qandil:
Let us first rule out the military scenarios, meaning sabotage, security operations, military action, targeting (individuals and locations) and igniting a war. This is beyond (the Israeli entity’s) power because it lacks internal harmony; an entity in which the US is a partner, whether at the intelligence level, or in terms of the Chief of Staff, or the Ministry of Defense. I mean, (the Israeli entity) cannot make its decision on its own.
Regarding the situation on the ground, well, the (original) date of the march was on Thursday, but now (the march) has been postponed to Tuesday by a decision from Netanyahu and his team to avoid taking any risks. (Next) Tuesday, they are talking about 500 (participants) and 500 flags. We know that this march is usually attended by at least 50,000 people every year. Therefore, Netanyahu and his team are now discussing ways to both deprive the (Palestinian) resistance from the opportunity to talk about its success in canceling the march altogether, and not crossing the red line drawn by the US.
Netanyahu explains the (current political) equation by saying: “you (Israelis) are going to either clash with Gaza, Hamas, and the (Palestinian) resistance forces, or experience Israeli bloodshed”, meaning that (Israeli) settlers and demonstrators will come out and clash with the police. I believe that Netanyahu’s assessment is correct. The future of the (Israeli) entity will look like one of two options: either a comprehensive war that begins with any action that would trigger conflict, or the other option, which is a Jewish-Jewish civil war because it is impossible to restrain the (Israeli) settlers.
It is possible that the march goes by with minimal provocations by avoiding sensitive areas and deploying the police and the army. However, since the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin (former Prime Minister of Israel), the only vital force that has a meaningful political activity in the occupation entity is the (Israeli) settlers and extremists. The rest are empty structures. Thus, if they (settlers and extremists) took the initiative out of their certainty that the political establishment has become impotent, we will hear about confrontations and clashes every day.
On the one hand, protecting the (Israeli) entity will require that a part of the army, the police and security forces face the (Israeli extremists). On the other hand, if (Israel) lets (the extremists) loose, this will trigger regional wars. The (Israeli) entity today is going through a delicate, dangerous and sensitive period of its life as it faces a stark choice: either civil war, or regional war.
It is worthwhile getting some background on the new kids on the Israeli block. Or are they new kids? David Sheen’s lecture, Messia Mode, about the roots of the right wing certainly brings to light a sordid history of betrayals and killings.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFl4U2NRJTg&t=1s
If you understand this, it makes sense to accept Nasser Qandil’s description of a stark choice: either civil war, or regional war. I do not see that the circumstances will change any time soon because the same old principles will remain.
Sheen is also a good one to follow on Twitter. https://twitter.com/davidsheen
At this point, I think the USG is getting tired of Apartheid Israel. And Nasser Qandil is right, the apartheid country is now under an American mandate and this newly formed government has been dictated by Biden to paralyze the Zionists. Not to mention the fact that for the first time the discourse has changed in the US, taking a pro-Palestinian slant.
However, what will transpire remains to be seen. And this prediction of civil war or regional war might be right on the money.
Methink regional war is the one that will fly, as it would align with American and Zionist interests to perpetuate war as a tool for US hegemony.
Besides, the Zionists have been drilling over and over such regional scenario.
http://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2014/08/29/israel-prepares-for-the-big-war/
The forces Occupying Palestine were drilling for a war with Hezbollah in Lebenon, Hamas redirected their attention……..in a regional war, the Occupiers get slaughtered, no ammount of free baubles from Uncle Schmule will stop the onslaught……..but, as they are now divided, great Brit tactic, the stage is being set for a civil war……turn about, is fair play.
Cheers, M
“for the first time the discourse has changed in the US, taking a pro-Palestinian slant”
Really? That is what you see happening? It is utterly impossible for a US government that is completely corrupted and captured by Jewish power to take a “pro-Palestinian slant”. US pols, virtually all of them on the federal level, compete with each other to see who can pledge their total devotion and loyalty to Israel.
Even on a state level, the major pols are all humiliating themselves and the nation with their ridiculous groveling to a foreign power. Nancy Pelosi stated that “if the capitol were coming down around us, US aid to Israel would still continue! In what kind of country would she not have been forced to resign for this boasting that for her Israel will always come first? I saw a clip of Guliani’s son running for Governor of NY. His campaign pitch was all about making NY a better place for Israel… as if NY doesn’t have real problems of its own.
No, there is no danger that the US government has taken a “pro-Palestinian slant”.
I find interesting that where western commentators often see Israel controlling American politics, in Lebanon they see the same people working for the other side.
This and numerous other articles on this important blog point to the certainty that Zionism was entirely a creation of British Imperial geopolitical power projection (and later maintained by the new British Empire or Anglo-American Empire). It was a deployment by the British to have an upper hand in the Great Game designed by Lord Halford Mackinder against insuring that Czarist Russia and Germany (and America) would not come together in an economic alliance against Oligarchic Imerium. Things have change somewhat, but generally, the same strategic situation remains. Those who think that Israel or the Zionist are the Masters of the collective West are making an ideological decision, not a scientific or reasoned decision. It’s the British Empire stupid. Thankfully, there are cooler heads on this blog who make their analysis’ understanding this principle.
“It’s the British Empire stupid.”
The Anglo Zio Capitalist empire. With English Lord Rothschild at its head. To whom British Prime Minister Balfour wrote, “Dear Lord Rothschild, His Majesty’s Government views with favour…etc” (PS Thanks for the War Loan)
“I care not who makes the Laws so long as I control the Currency” — Meyer Rothschild.
“I never saw a war my sons did not like” — Mama Rothschild
In the historic sense the anglosaxon diaspora and the machine called “empire” is generally known to have reached it’s apex and begun a decline process. Accordingly, naturally, the forward operating bases are going to surrender to more local patrons or, if they can, to find new patrons.
This is not to say that the zionish project is in fact a forward operating base.
But if it’s not, why, then, is the entity lavished with weapons and money and political support?
What might happen if this support stops?
(hint. it’s going to stop)
Quiz Friday. Essay optional.
Im really enjoying seeing AROCs successful ILWC port boycott of Israeli ZIM containerships on the USWC. There are now two ships sailing up and down the USWC, unable to offload for over a month. Needless to say, major monies are being lost and contracts are being cancelled. There are two points I take from this. One, is that this is not in ZioNazi media which makes me believe that this is likely occuring throughout the world. Two is that despite that over 30 states in the USA being forced to enact the anti BDS law, no one is taking action. Likely, the US Gov remembers the last time they tried to mess with ILWC. They shut down all the ports on the USWC for 2 weeks. Just before Christmas, LOL. https://truthout.org/articles/bds-is-gaining-momentum-with-blocktheboat-actions-in-oakland-and-seattle/?utm_campaign=Truthout%20Share%20Buttons&fbclid=IwAR0bwtm0L1PaB0FJ5GMYAY3VHvJ5Dy47CDc3M2CJGPeRTWpnCEWwPz_-mik
Its nice to see a workers union that has not sold out!
USWC is the primary $ destination for the Israeli National Steamship line Zim and these people have effectively put it out of business. I suspect we will see a propaganda push in the MSM about how bad the left wing, socialist organizations really are, as a result. LOL That will backfire, of course.
It is embarrassing for this Lebanese gentleman to refer to the nation of Israel as an entity, only. Is he not aware of all the various peoples throughout history who have taken land from other peoples and lived on it (Muslims themselves being the chief offenders in so many parts of the world). Yes, Israel is coming to the end of its days, as is the Cabal, God willing. But, this man’s tone is ugly.