The Middle East is rapidly moving towards a new round of confrontation between the US-Israeli bloc and Iranian-led Shiite forces.
On July 26, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) deployed M109 Doher howitzers near the separation line with Lebanon. The deployment of howitzers became the latest in a series of broad measures employed by the IDF near Lebanon recently. Earlier, the 13th “Gideon” Infantry Battalion of the IDF’s elite 1st “Golani” Brigade reinforced troops near the border. The number Israeli Hermes 450 drone reconnaissance flights also significantly increased over southern Lebanon. Additional IDF units were also deployed in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights. On top of this, the IDF announced that it will hold the Lebanese government responsible “for all actions emanating from Lebanon”.
These measures followed the July 20 Israeli strike on Syria, which resulted in the death of a member of Lebanese Hezbollah. Over the past years, Hezbollah has been one of the main supporters of Syrian Army operations against ISIS and al-Qaeda. Tel Aviv increases its strikes on what it calls Hezbollah and Iranian-affiliated targets in Syria every time when the Syrian Army launches active actions against terrorists and seems to be very concerned by the possibility of a Hezbollah response to the July 20 attack.
If Israel is really set to conduct strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon to the retaliatory action by Hezbollah, this scenario could easily evolve into a wider border confrontation between Hezbollah and the IDF.
At the same time, tensions between local resistance groups and the US-led coalition grew in Iraq. On July 24, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, Ashab al-Kahf, announced that its forces had shot down an unmanned aerial vehicle of the US military over the province of Saladin. The group claimed that the UAV was downed by some ‘new weapon’ and released a photo showing the launch of what appears to be an anti-aircraft missile, likely a man-portable air-defense system.
On the same day, four unguided rockets struck the Pasmaya military camp, which is located 60km south of Baghdad. One of the rockets hit a garage for armoured vehicles, while another one targeted the barracks of the security unit. Two other rockets landed in an empty area. Despite causing some material damage, the rocket attack did not result in any casualties. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.
The Pasmaya military camp is known to be hosting troops of the U.S.-led coalition and is used for training of Iraqi troops. On July 25, the coalition withdrew its forces from the camp and handed it over to the Iraqi military. According to the official statement, the coalition trained 50,000 personnel and invested $5 million into the creation of training infrastructure there.
Earlier in 2020, the US-led coalition withdrew its forces from several smaller military camps across the country. Some sources tried to present this as a withdrawal from Iraq due to the increasing attacks on coalition forces by anti-US Shiite paramilitary groups. These attacks increased significantly after the assassination of Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units Deputy Commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in a US drone strike on Baghdad International Airport on January 3, 2020. The attack put the region on the brink of the US-Iranian war and caused a public outcry against the US military presence in Iraq. However, in fact, the US has not been withdrawing its troops from the country, but rather redeploying them to larger bases. The US military even brought Patriot surface-to-air missile systems to provide additional protection to its forces. It also continues isolated attacks on positions of the Popular Mobilization Units, an official branch of the Iraqi Armed Forces that Washington describes as terrorist groups and Iranian proxies.
On July 26, several large explosions rocked the al-Saqer military camp near the district of Dora south of Baghdad. The Al-Saqer military camp hosts forces of the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) as well as the Iraqi Federal Police. Large quantities of ammunition, which were stored in the camp, exploded. Iraqi Security Media said the ammunition exploded as result of “high heat” and “poor storage”. Nevertheless, sources affiliated with the PMU rejected these speculations. Local sources claimed that the explosions were caused by US drone strikes. An MQ-1 Predator combat drone was spotted over the al-Saqer military camp just after the incident. This was the second situation of this kind that happened in al-Saqer. In 2019, a US drone strike hit a weapon depot at the camp.
The current situation sets almost no prospects for a de-escalation in Iraq. The main goal of attacks by local Shiite groups is to force the US to withdraw troops from the country. At the same time, the US is not planning to withdraw its forces and uses these attacks to justify the increase of its campaign against pro-Iranian forces in the Middle East.
Hezbollah has to bait Israel into an attack of the scale that the Russians will no longer accept. It has to be bait in defense of Syria, in defense of Lebanon, goals the Russians will support.
At some point the Russians have to down or so overwhelmingly suppress F-35s that the IDF will no longer fly their missile and guided bomb attacks in the region. This is inevitable. The Russian EW, radars, missiles in the S-400 system versus the F-35.
It would be a major blow to the IDF and USAF, but more to the US MIC that will set back the F-35 program and cost billions.
I dont think so. If Putin joins in, immediate severe economic sanctions from USA including cutting Russia from the SWIFT will follow and will cripple Russia. And BOTH Putin and USA/Israel know this. Putin’s hands are tied and he will behave.
@Hoyeru: “the SWIFT will follow and will cripple”.
Revealed! Israel’s ultimate defense: The Wall — of Rothschild moneybags.
History records some names of famous failed moneybag warriors: Croesus of Lydia, Hannibal of Carthage, Lepidus of Rome; perhaps History is about to add another famous name: Rothschild of London.
@Larchmonter445
Russians didnt do anything after they plane got mistakenly shot down by SAA Air Defence after israeli jets hid behind it and lured into the catastroph
so what makes you think russia will suddenly do something?
it doesnt even matter no more, the resistence is more than capable to deal with the zionists on its own, they are stronger than ever
F-35 is just more garbage and a waste of taxpayer money.
Ineffective cruise missiles also unable to hit targets reveals the inferior weapons tech coming out of the M I C
this was inevitable. As much as people celebrated that Assad had won, Assad in fact had won just a reprise. Israel/USA will not let him win, they were playing the waiting game, they waited and waited and watched what Russia would do and how much support Russia will offer Assad. And they weren’t disappointed; Putin held back offering nothing that just the token assistance, and nothing much more. Assad’s possition ting is shaky at best; USA can attack him anytime they want with Irsael joining in. Once again rhis will all be Putin’s fault as it is in Ukraine. Putin just doesnt want a head to head conflict with the USA/Israel/West because he knows very well what will come: harsh sanctions that will cripple Russia. That is what USA/israel/West and banking on and they are right.
Thing are going to get heated in Syria very soon. Turkey from the North, USA from the East and Israel/UA from south and south east will most likely attack Syria from all sides. Putin better stand up and show he can deliver or all the years he wasted half hardheartedly “supporting” Syria will be for nothing.
Isn’t Russia already under ‘harsh sanctions’? They seem to be managing, same as China and Iran. The SWIFT thing could br by-passed with a little more work. Perhaps Russia is waiting for that.
Okay, so what is the situation? In terms of what is happening in the middle-east the march of the AZ-empire is apparently relentless and it seems that it has Russia in its sights. This basically leaves Russia, presently in the shape of Putin with basically two options: fight or surrender. There is no way out of this geopolitical struggle. Any retreat at this stage will only invite, probably another Ukie armed incursion into the Don Bass.
No ifs and buts, the same strategy ‘fight or surrender, was evident in the war against Georgia, Crimea and the Don Bass when Putin acted, he will have to act again or be ready for eventual surrender terms.
I do not think it is up to Russia alone; there is a whole Arc of Resistance: from Lebanon, through Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan — and only then come Russia and China.
The Anglo Zio Capitalist hold on the ME has lasted barely 100 years, and their dream of Full Spectrum Dominance has lasted even less. Britain was still struggling to put down riots in Iraq when Rommel arrived to claim Germany’s share of the AZC oil loot; then struggled to hold down Iran. Today Iran has broken free, and the Anglo Zio hold on Iraq seems increasingly insecure — as does their hold on Libya. I do not think the AZC can fight against a united Axis of Resistance.
NATZO’s largest army (Turkey) is trying to stand with one foot in the ME and the other foot in NATZO (plus a toehold in Libya). With legs spreading further and further apart, Turkey is in line for painful dislocation. Moreover, NATZO itself – unlike the peoples armies of Hezb’Allah, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Russia – is not a peoples army: NATZO is merely a (very expensive) band of Capitalist mercenaries put together for the purpose of enslaving the “non-Western” world, and destroying Communism. Like NATZO’s ISIS mercenaries in Syria, NATZO’s regular armies will “not fight more than they see reason”.
” I do not think it is up to Russia alone; there is a whole Arc of Resistance: from Lebanon, through Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan — and only then come Rushis ” asia and China. ”
Well this ” arc of resistance” seems very uncoordinated, squabbling, and with contradictory plans and goals. Basically, a severe lack of a unified front or planning. If it continues in its present form, the resistance will be taken out one by one.