by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog
Most of the current instability in the Levant and the whole Middle East is inadvertently and inadvertently a result of the obsession about Israel’s security; both from the Israeli as well as the American sides. That said, many of the region’s problems are deep-rooted and go back to times before Israel was created and before America had any influence.
In the middle part of the Nineteenth Century, and whilst the entire Levant was under Ottoman rule, sectarian strife between Lebanese Maronites (a regional Catholic sect) and Druze (regional esoteric Muslim-based faith) left thousands savagely butchered, towns decimated, and civilians displaced. The strife escalated in 1860-1861, and as it was obvious back then that the Ottoman Empire was not far from its demise, the West was looking for half an opportunity to interfere in the Levant; and under the guise of protecting the Lebanese Maronites, coerced the Ottomans to give Mount Lebanon autonomy, under the auspices of the West.
This all happened prior to WWI, before Sykes Picot, and before any single Western nation could make a claim on Lebanon. The decision had then to be reached by consensus. This is why it was jointly reached by France, Britain, Austria, Prussia and Russia. The Ottomans had no choice but to accept and dilute their influence in the region by giving the West a post within the Ottoman Empire.
The French proposed that the ruler should be given the title of Plenipotentriary, and the word was translated to a Turkish word of Arabic origin, Mutasarrif, but that person was appointed by the West; not by Turkey, and the political entity itself was called the Mutasarrifate of Mount Lebanon.
For readers interested in my take and analysis on Lebanon’s recent history in a more detailed but concise narrative, they can go to this reference. In brief, Grand Liban (Greater Lebanon) was created by the French under the demand of the then Maronite Patriarch Howayyek in 1920. It was meant to give Lebanese Christians a sense of security, and to be a neutral country in the Middle East; with a Western outlook.
This article will not discuss the geopolitical changes that have happened since. They are in the link above. That said, with the many changes over the last century, the situation in Lebanon has become untenable.
In summary, and among other things, Lebanon has to find a way to deal with Israel, with Syria which is the heart of the axis of resistance and support of Hezbollah, its Arab neighbours who are predominantly against Syria and Hezbollah, devise a united policy as to the status and level of the presence of Hezbollah, find a way out of the current financial collapse and redefine the country’s position as either a neutral country or a spearhead of resistance.
But this is easier said than done not only because of the political divisions, but also because of the endemic corruption of its Mafia lords; Lebanon’s ruling elite and their cronies.
These are the family lines of the same lords that led Lebanon into the civil war. They all have little armies, real armies; some with tanks and artillery. The Lebanese Army is incapable of crushing them, and even if it attempts to, it will have to attack them all at once; not one at a time without risking being accused of impartiality and giving favours.
Those leaders are accused of having thieved $800 Bn from Lebanon and siphoned it overseas. And in as much as they loathe each other, they equally need each other because the existence of each of them is contingent upon that of the others.
Much has been blamed in the past on the disunity of the Lebanese themselves, but when literally millions took to the streets in October 2019, they were united, they carried the slogan of ‘kellon yani kellon’ (all of them means all of them). But before too long, meddlers and thugs were set up inside their camps wreaking havoc and disunity. The protestors were hoping that the Lebanese Army would make a move and start arresting the leaders and the cronies implanted amongst them, but the army itself is bogged down in the same game of dirty politics and loyalties.
In simple terms, the Lebanese people can become united if they have the will and they have done so in the past. They have learned this lesson the hard way, but they simply do not have the means and the power to dislodge the ruling families who control everything; all the way from daily bread to election results.
The country has been struggling for years with mountains of rubbish that the government has not been able to process, electricity shortages, water shortages, soaring unemployment just to name a few problems. It is little wonder why the economy collapsed and the Lira lost nearly 80% of its value in the last few months. Add to this COVID-19, the Caesar Act, and now the Beirut Sea-Port explosions.
Of interest to note is that the latest events in Lebanon have been capitalized on to raise the level of dissent against Hezbollah. According to some, Hezbollah was blamed for everything; even including the sea-port disaster.
Sometimes however, disasters offer silver linings. The cries of Lebanese citizens in the streets of major cities did not generate any global compassion, but after the massive blast, there seems a change in this respect.
Many nations have come forward and offered to assist the Lebanese people, and their governments are not shying away from stating that they will not entrust this aid to the Lebanese Government for distribution to those in need. This is because the whole world, not only the Lebanese people, no longer trust Lebanese officials.
Thus far, among a list of nations, aid and offers of aid came from Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the USA, and ironically, even from Israel .
But no aid offer has thus far come close to that of France. French President Marcon did not only make a promise, but he also visited Lebanon and walked on Ground Zero (thereby shooting the concept of nuclear attack in the guts) and made a very intriguing yet audacious promise. He promised Lebanon a ‘new political pact’.
What does a ‘new political pact’ exactly mean?
This promise harks back to the days of colonization when France did not only actually draw the map of the new state of Lebanon and gave it a constitution that was shaped on France’s own, but it also goes back to the days when the Mount Lebanon Mutasarrifate was created, does it not?
Macron went further and promised to return to Lebanon on the 1st of September 2020, a very ominous date indeed, a date that marks the centenary of the declaration of Grand Liban.
But Lebanon is no longer under French mandate, and France is unable to receive such a mandate without international support. That said, as unbelievable as it may sound, more than fifty thousand Lebanese have signed a petition asking France to take control of Lebanon for the next ten years. And speaking of former colonizers, if such a poll was taken for the return of Turkish rule, perhaps more would sign it as the popularity of Erdogan is growing within the Sunni street.
This is not to say that Lebanese people want to be ruled by a foreign entity. It is simply because they are feeling beaten, robbed, hungry, terrorised, so helpless and have lost total faith in their own leaders and political process and are desperately screaming out for help from outside.
If the events of 1860-1861 have generated enough Western ‘sympathy’ to ‘help’ the people of Lebanon, then the events of 2020 are much more prominent and offer a much bigger opportunity and lure for a new-style intervention.
But once again, France cannot get away with doing this alone. With Russia already on the ground in Syria and America looking for a new role in Lebanon, France would have to get them on board somehow. It is plausible that a new international conference that of course includes Russia but also Turkey, but not Iran, may soon be convened to discuss the political future of Lebanon.
This time, the West will have a significantly larger incentive than the one it had back in 1861, because this time around, it will have one small eye on Lebanon, and the bigger eye on the security of Israel, as well as seeing in this an opportunity they have not been able to achieve by other means in order to reach a deal that stamps out Iranian influence and presence just at the door step of Israel’s borders.
If the international community were serious about helping the Lebanese people and the Lebanese Army, it is quite capable of freezing the assets of the corrupt leaders and repatriating those funds to jump-start the economy again. Lebanon has a huge wealth of highly qualified professionals, many of whom currently are unemployed, and are desperately needing work in a country that desperately needs rebuilding. But would they be trusted, given their miserable track record, and who would they be answerable to if they breached the agreed mandate?
But such a plan, devised by an international conference would not bear fruit unless it puts teeth into the decision, sending troops to disarm the relatively small militia of the corrupt politicians, forcefully if needed. Theoretically, and with good intentions, this is conceivable. However, since when has such an operation ever been genuinely executed and free of abuse and various stakeholder’s pursuing their nefarious agendas. How could we forget Libya? That said, the intervention in Libya was NATO-based, the presence of Russia and possibly China in any international agreement over Lebanon will add more balance.
But no one will be able to disarm the formidable army of the true resistance, Hezbollah, any more than Hezbollah will agree to lay down its weapons.
According to my analysis and predictions, it appears likely that some type of intervention will occur to cleanse the country of the political elite and their private interest militias. The pact will draw a line somewhere in South Lebanon, keep an area under Hezbollah’s control, and have Hezbollah to agree to leave Lebanese politics. This would be the biggest concession that Hezbollah will agree to, if it does. This will not give Israel all of what it wants, because such an outcome will not safeguard it from Hezbollah’s rockets, however Israel cannot expect more than that, if it does.
Russia may use this ‘opportunity’ to reach a way out of the deadlock and find a political settlement with the USA over their differences in Syria. But for this to happen, Syria will also need to agree to remove Iranian influence and presence from Syrian soil, as this fact has caused so much growing divisiveness in the region and provided an excuse for further Israeli aggression and US presence in Syria.
Most ironically in this particular context, even Chairman Nasrallah referred to silver linings in his latest speech on the 8th of August 2020, following the sea-port disaster. He said “from the womb of the tragedy, opportunities are born, and that international discussions emerging from this incident are an opportunity that must be capitalized upon by the Lebanese” I do not profess to know what Chairman Nasrallah meant, but he did add that all of those who are hedging their bets on the failure of the resistance will eventually fail.
Lebanon has probably gone the full circle, and the age of Mutasarrifate Take II is possibly only around the corner.
If Marcon is true to his word, for better or for worse he needs to act fast because he knows that the condition of the Lebanese people is dire. But no doubt, given his country’s history great skepticism prevails.
Tragically, such an outcome will catapult Lebanon right back into the age of Western custodianship. Depending on its fine details, and unless it stipulates the lifting of sanctions on Syria, its outcome may have serious further economic repercussions on Syria. Furthermore, it will take away many of the achievements of the Axis of Resistance, realistically however, such an outcome is not far-fetched.
The murderous, greedy, filthy and corrupt Lebanese political leaders would not have only destroyed Lebanon’s economy, but also returned it to the doldrums of the age of colonization.
[“… inadvertently and inadvertently …”
— the author apparently meant “inadvertently and advertently”.]
there will be hungry people due to this, and all around the globe starvation is growing
Intervention?!!! ( I bite my tongue lest the moderators have to spring into deleterious action action) sigh… does not the example of what happened to Patrice Lumumba spring to mind?
1. intervention will strengthen, not weaken the criminal forces within Lebanon
2. Any, I repeat, any involvement of the USA or its proxies will mark the sure the death of Lebanon
3. Constant civil strive will just be a slow bleed out death of a national slitting of the wrist.
Seriously, I understand that you are most likely in the bargaining state of grief over this horrendous state of affairs but like in the USA (only difference is that Lebanon will have to transverse it first ), the road ahead is one of principle over which only the strong, the fearless and perhaps the lucky will be able to make it to the end .
” 2. Any, I repeat, any involvement of the USA or its proxies will mark the sure the death of Lebanon.”
Which USA, teranam 13???
The one that includes you and I and many other Americans that bend toward the sovereignty of republics against the Empire Model……………..OR the AZ Empire captive economic and military brawn of the USA’s MIC Dogs of War that don’t give one iota about such sentiments or identities.
They exhibit the same thing the “elite families” of Lebanon that Ghassan describes exhibit: Absolute corruption and corruptibility within a nanosecond of facing any choice between taking a difficult principled moral stand……..or a “take the money and RUN!” approach.
In this sense you have in Lebanon…..in the USA….and in many other countries in between in terms of their prospects for peace, prosperity and justice…………. a corruption that feeds on the pessimism of ALL…from top ….but also clear down tothe bottom.
As though it has always been so hopeless………….and will ever remain so hopeless. And as though the fondest desire of those out of power in either country…..whether close …..with some actual shot at grabbing power and socking away millions in foreign accounts …or in the middle…..or way down at the bottom levels of poverty in either example………would be to do exactly the same, if given the chance…..and “take the money and run”.as well…..as soon as they could!
Although such people have always been the majority, since the Dawn of Time ……… so concerned with “looking out for # 1” that you’d be a fool to trust anyone one of them as far as you can throw them……….that is NOT the entirety of the Story of A Humanity……….morally unfit to survive from top to bottom, from victims to victimizers.
There are exceptions………….albeit brief….and even within out lifetimes…EVEN in (gasp!) the USA…….. LOL.
Suez Crisis 1956. Eisenhower putting his foot down against Great Britain, Israel and France ………in defense of Egyptian rights regarding The Canal.
In terms of military men in the USA of the last century, Lyndon LaRouche much preferred the brilliance and decisiveness of Douglas MacArthur….including his wise appreciation of Asian cultures……. that came from a childhood and younger adulthood in Asia…and pre WW II older mature adulthood ….in the Philippines…AND.reflected in his (6 years I think) post war governorship over the Japanese Empire that he defeated…..his argument to spare the Emperor of Japan from execution…to allow Hirohito to remain a figurehead for the utterly defeated Japanese to see that they were also to be spared………and offered “the comfort and the solace of Christian morals” as the Theater Commander of the Pacific put it……. so that they could recover, live…have a nation, instead of being utterly crushed, permanently humiliated and genocided.
It’s not supposed to be about Permanent War. It’s supposed to be about war only as a last resort….to win the peace, which MacArthur was very clear about…not being one of these “triple-dipping” Deep State generals…but a pure soldier
Lyn was less impressed with Ike…..who had served before WWII under the command of MacArthur. and who struck Lyn (who served as a junior officer in the Pacific, under “Mac”……as the far less decisive commander… “.Eisen-however“, he quipped.
But he admitted that Ike did not do badly with the 1956 Suez Crisis………as US Commander in Chief
SO: As rough as the process is………..I think there IS an improvement underway …a semi-awakening …………..potentially going much, much further than what is visible at present…..from the top and the bottom in the United States …you and other Americans here are part of that….and ANY sustaining of that improvement depends on the aggregate improvement of the whole population through Nov 2020 and well beyond Nov 2024…and whatever limited leveling of rotten edifices the Orange Wrecking Ball can accomplish……AND many years after you and I are no longer here.
Because to say “any involvement of the USA”……. will suck….FOREVER……. does not just portend great difficulty for Lebanon (as though they don’t have enough already)….its portend nothing but similar hardships and evils here at home AND globally….quite obviously!
And I don’t think we should be willing to accept such……… as a foregone “inevitable” conclusion.
Pessimism is the root of corruption and tragedy….everywhere.
AND: Today is a Very Big Day, with the Flynn Hearing. I think Flynn’s approach would be more Eisenhoweverian than the Brits and Clintonites that sought to destroy him. And it just might come strongly to the forefront in terms of giving breathing room for the Lebanese……….and many others in the region and beyond.
Never say “never”.
wow – second paragraph is mindblowing – which shows that be it Christian or Esoteric Muslim – we are only religious for moments – if that – a day – the rest of the time we are human – all too human.
I wish Hezbollah and Iran could take a bigger hand in the governing of Lebanon – then it would get on its feet.
People are so stupid when it comes to politics.
I see that the boot-licking zionist stooges in Lebanon have wasted little time in lining up as usual to seek refuge in the arms of Lebanon’s tormentors, namely Israel, the US and the EU – in that order.
The gullible fools are seemingly unaware that even if Hezbollah was to ‘poof’ and disappear from Lebanon today, Israel would still not leave Lebanon to live in peace.
In fact, Hezbollah is the deterence that currently prevents Israel from carrying out its long devised plan to rip Lebanon apart and siphon off its resourses with the blessing and backing of Washington and the indifference of European countries.
Why do you think the West does not “allow” Lebanon access weapons perceived as threating to Israel?
Every now and then what passes for the Lebanese army are given a few retrofitted dust cropping planes and a few Coast Guard boats by the US Embassy in Lebanon.
Hezbollah and Iran are just the current bogeymen thst Israel employs to justify its daily violation of Lebanon’s sovreignty.
If both were not around some other pretext would’ve been conjured up long ago.
At any given time in its history, Israel has always had what it perceived as “existential problems” with one country or another in the region, depending on that country’s level of development and progress and the extent to which that country was willing to be accomodating to Israel’s insatiable interests.
In the begining, having perpetrated ethnic cleasning and numerous war crimes against the Palestinians, Israel’s then became obsessed with Nasser and Egypt, which was then regarded as the most powerful and capable Arab country.
During this time, every and any dirty tricks were employed by the Jewish state to destroy Egypt and its citizens.
Remember those flase flags attacks against Western targets to get the West to wage war against Egypt.
At this time, Iran was not regarded as a problem by Israel, because the Shah was in power and Iran was firmly under the influence of Washington.
Iraq was a problem however, and Saddam and the Baath Party were regarded and threating and hostile.
Saudi Arabia was also suspect – when Reagan was president the Saudis tried to buy some AWACS, Israel objected – citing their “qualitative edge” – and the then Secretary of State, George Shultz had to scrap the deal.
During this time Lebanon was invaded and its inhabitants mudered and its infrastructure laid to waste because the Palestinian leadership had sought refuge there.
And all across the region, bloody assassinations were perpetrated against a wide cross section of Arab intellectuals and Resistance activists to include journalistsand poets.
No one who dared to speak out and moblize against the occupation were safe.
Hafez Al-Assad in Syria was another regional bogeyman trotted out by Israel, because he refused to give up the Goldn Heights.
In the meantime, the Shah had been toppled in Iran and replaced by the Islamic Republic which signalled its intention to back the Palestinian Cause and support Lebanon in its resistance against Israeli occupation.
By way of deception, a clever ruse was then devised to get 2 countries regarded as threats to Israel, to wage war against each other.
And that is how the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War came about.
Working mostly with Saddam Hussein, Israel via the West facilitated these two countries that were regarded as threats to Israel to kill and maim each other for 8 years, while the world looked on.
Saddam Hussein was even allowed to used chemical weapons and when the Iranians complained, the US sought to block or downplay any discussion at the UN.
The Civil War in Lebanon was also aided and abetted by Zionist interests.
Flash forward to today – with its long history of massacres and atrocities against the region’s inhabitants, what is Lebanon expecting to get from Israel and its backers, peace?
The people of Lebanon must understand that Israel has never desired peace, because peace runs contrary to its plans for the region.
Selah
These are good points S-400, but the colonized mind only sees West. The great hero of the global anti colonial struggle Fanon, who also was a psychiatrist, described the colonized mind in his book “black skin, white mask” as a child, who is being punished by his mother, and the more the mother beats the child, the harder the child holds on to the mother! That is the relation between the colonized countries and the motherland being it France or Britain.
The fact of the matter is, that the sectarian structure of the lebanese society will make sure, that Lebanon will forever fail. The very lebanese constitution is a guarantee for uninterrupted corruption and political or economical amputation. As long as the lebanese political and economical interests are based on sectarian division, it will fail to act as an catalyst for the betterment of the country and the lebanese people as a whole.
But the tragedy in Lebanon does not end there. The lebanese economy and the lebenese currency is captive to the usa dollar, which is the unofficial official currency of the country. I guess the correct word is destroyed by the dollar. It seems, that Fanon’s “Black skin, white mask” also exist in the currency relation between the the two. I witnessed it in Iran too. When trump declared the harshest every sanctions in the history of mankind on Iran, it resulted in a frenzy of dollar purchases!
As long as the sectarian system exist and as long as the dollar is the currency of Lebanon, she will never rise. She will always be in a crisis mode. But some people don´t see the forest or the trees!
with regards
I feel sorry for the people of Lebanon but not for its illegitimate government. I fear the Lebanese people are locked in the jaws of a worldwide struggle. Hezbollah will continue to resist because if they do not then the Zionists will treat all the people of every sect like they treat the Palestinian people.
It is certainly not my place to say because I am not hungry, my children are not starving before my eyes but…. I hope the golden chains of servitude Macron offers are not chosen. I hope the Lebanese people remain strong in the face of the coercion of money. I would understand if resistance was given up as the people of Lebanon have suffered so much but if they do give in perhaps all is lost.
Conclusion- Lebanon is a mess. But we know that already. Unfortunately I am none the wiser after reading the article. The article assumes a level of knowledge of Lebanon politics that I do not have.
Some questions:
1. Hasn’t the geopolitical function of the Mutasarrifate been superceded by the creation of Israel? Is it really necessary to get back to the Mutasarrifate model for Lebanon to achieve these goals?
2. As mentioned in the article every political grouping has its own army plus the national army plus Hezbollah. Presumably Hezbollah is the biggest party with the biggest army inside Lebanon. What are the interests of these groups apart from normal politics? Who (foreign interests) backs them and why?
3. What are the interests of the big players (Russia, US, UK, France,China etc) in Lebanon? How do they want the issues settled, assuming they want it settled?
4. Is the merging of Lebanon with Syria or its dismembering a viable option? Do any of the parties want it or are working towards it?
5.What are the interests of the neighbours (Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Arab countries, Egypt, other North African countries, Israel, Jordan) in Lebanon? How do they want the issues settled, assuming they want it settled?
@jiri
4. Is the merging of Lebanon with Syria or its dismembering a viable option? Do any of the parties want it or are working towards it?
None of the lebanese I’ve spoken to want to return to Syria. A survey of social media adds to that.
Aside from feelings, Syria is not in a condition to offer anything to the Lebanese, and it would provoke Israel to invade.
We’ve seen this episode before at the Lebanese civil war.
china . the unspoken player . i find any analysis sadly lacking when no one repeat no one will do any deep analysis of china israel. the BRI will reinvent the middle east. china is doing it . there was some resistance by the west. competing pipelines etc. but the west bombs, china builds.
israel has hitched itself to china grandly. from stolen tech transfer mainly. but it wont go down after its host collapses. china israel iran trade block. but we are told terminal enemies in the ZOG media. a good parasite jumps to fresh invigorated blood. the bunting clover leaf map is of interest since dreams of grandeur by various nations play out in the region.
The image of a citadel on the article’s front page hyperlink is that of Aleppo Citadel. Aleppo is the largest city in northern Syria (about 250 miles from the nearest Lebanese border). I could not make the connection between the image, on the one hand, and the topic and narrative of the article, on the other.
Otherwise, an informative and well written piece.
Thanks you.
What informative piece is that? Anyone who has read “Which path to Persia”, will tell you, that this article is a regurgitation of Brooking institute analysis with a lebanese touch. Even the language is the same pretensions imperial language used by them, which is strangely enough to give it a neutral flavor.
The biggest player in the region’s logistics CMA CGM has considerable clout and I would not be surprised to see them involved in any future port renovation. And that would wed their logistic system with the EU. Macron undoubtedly has a plan.
Attached is the link to a Panel discussion presented by the Institute for North American and European Studies (INAES) and hosted by Zeinab Ghasemi Tari (Iran).
Guests:
Alastair Crooke, Pepe Escobar, and Seyed Mohammad Marandi.
These three men have such complex knowledge that it is a joy to listen to them elaborate about different topics from the demise of the US as super power to China, Middle East etc.
One hour and 40 minutes long it is a very generous amount of time given to them which is needed when you want to go into detail. It is not really a discussion but rather three long monologues at first.
Also good for the blood pressure as all three men’s political thinking is on the right side of history.
Demeter,
where is the link you talk about? It does not show.
This is a most realistic analysis of the situation in Lebanon. Israel’ interests are not endangered by the presence of Hezbollah as much as they are by Iran’s influence in the region. Lebanon being the weakest link within the “Arc of resistance”, can play a key role to choke Syria and facilitate the creation of three or four sectarian mini-states in Syria and Lebanon.
The alternative for Syria and Lebanon-Hezbollah is to go to war. A war that neither country is strong enough to fight but one that may preserve the sovereignty and territorial integrity of both countries with the help of Russia and China.