by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
Under the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing aims to connect western China to the eastern Mediterranean
China’s “Go West” strategy was brought into sharp focus at a forum in Shanghai last weekend. Billed as the Belt and Road Initiative: Towards Greater Cooperation between China and the Middle East, it highlighted key aspects of Beijing’s wider plan.
The New Silk Roads, or the Belt and Road Initiative, involve six key economic corridors, connecting Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and Europe. One, in particular, extends through the Middle East to North Africa. This is where the Belt and Road meets MENA or the Middle East and North Africa.
Of course, Beijing’s massive economic project goes way beyond merely exporting China’s excess production capacity. That is part of the plan, along with building selected industrial bases in MENA countries by using technical and production expertise from the world’s second-largest economy.
Again, this is will connect western China to the eastern Mediterranean. It will mean developing a corridor through projects such as the Red Med railway. There are also plans to expand ports, such as Oman’s Duqm, as well as substantial investment in Turkey.
Belt and Road Initiative. Illustration: iStock
A look at the numbers tells a significant part of the story. In 2010, China-Arab trade was worth US$145 billion. By 2014, it had reached $250 billion and rising. China is now the largest exporter to assorted MENA nations, while MENA accounts for 40% of Beijing’s oil imports.
The next stage surrounding energy will be the implementation of a maze of LNG, or liquefied natural gas, pipelines, power grids, power plants and even green projects, sprouting up across the new Silk Road corridors and transit routes.
According to the Asian Development Bank, the myriad of Belt and Road infrastructure projects for the next 15 years could hit a staggering $26 trillion. Other less grandiose figures come in at $8 trillion during the next two decades.
The ongoing internationalization of the yuan will be key in the process as will the role of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
Naturally, there will be challenges. Belt and Road Initiative projects will have to create local jobs, navigate complex public and private partnerships along with intractable geopolitical wobbles.
Enseng Ho, a professor from the Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore, is one of an army of researchers studying how historical links will play an important role in this new configuration.
An excellent example is the city of Yiwu in Zhejiang province. This has become a mecca for merchant pilgrims from Syria or east Africa and has profited the region, according to the Zhejiang provincial government.
In a wider Middle East context, Beijing’s aim is to harness, discipline and profit from what can be considered an Industrialization 2.0 process. The aim is to help oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf states, diversify away from crude.
There is also reconstruction projections elsewhere, with China deeply involved in the commercial renaissance of post-war Syria.
As well as investing in its own future energy security, Beijing is keen to put together other long-term strategic investments. Remixing the centuries-old Chinese trade connections with the Islamic world fits into the Globalization 2.0 concept President Xi Jinping rolled out at last year’s World Economic Forum in the Swiss ski resort of Davos.
But then, Beijing’s strategy is to avoid a geopolitical collision in the Middle East. Its aim is to: Make Trade, Not War.
From the United States’ point of view, the National Security Strategy document highlighted how China and Russia are trying to shape a new geopolitical environment in the region, which contrasts sharply from Washington’s aims and interests.
It pointed out that while Russia is trying to advance its position as the leading political and military power broker, China is pushing ahead with a “win, win” economic policy. In 2016, that was spelt out in Beijing’s first Arab Policy paper, with its emphasis on bilateral trade cooperation, joint development projects and military exchanges.
Since geopolitical wobbles are never far below the surface in the Middle East, China has even suggested it would be willing to act as a mediator between intractable rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Indeed, diplomacy is a key card for Beijing, according to Zhao Tingyang, a noted philosopher, at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
In his 2006 paper, entitled Rethinking Empire from a Chinese Concept “All-Under-Heaven”, Zhao argued that the country show follow a principle of harmony based loosely on the Confucian notion of “all under heaven” or Tianxia in Mandarin.
Confucius, one would imagine, would be pleased by the Belt and Road Initiative. You could call it: “Make Trade, Not War All Under Heaven.”
Smart move by China. Get rid of dollars before they implode, make investments everywhere possible.
Watch as the empire falls apart.
Vengeance is a dish best served cold.
Exactly use the useless paper into real assets.
‘China a disruptive power,’ say navy chiefs of Quadrilateral nations
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/china-a-disruptive-power-quad-nations-navy-chiefs/articleshow/62562144.cms
In a meeting between Naval chiefs of Quadrilateral nations in India, the Indian Admiral Sunil Lamba said that China is “developing ports and infrastructure that are not viable”.
lol, since when did India start developing viable infrastructures and giving lectures to others.
“They have a base in Djibouti. They have developed a port in Hambantota (Sri Lanka)….”
The Indian Admiral probably is blind to the other foreign military bases in Djibouti and why does a Chinese military based in Africa concern the Indians, don’t the Indians have a military base in Maldives too?
I’m sure this Quad alliance will cause trouble for the Maritime silk routes. India has joined in the Chinese SCO and wants to use the Chinese funded and built Infrastructure in Eurasia (these are viable because the holy Indians will be using it) to profit itself but on the other hand, the Indians want to disrupt the maritime silk routes in Indian ocean with the help of other Quad allies. What kind of mentality is this?
Not forget Dong Lang, which belongs to China. More from the drama queen. I wonder if Bhutan is lay low and waiting for the road. :
China occupies North Doklam, with armoured vehicles & 7 helipads
https://theprint.in/2018/01/17/new-trouble-for-india-as-china-fully-occupies-doklam/
@AbuBaker al-Anonymousi. It’s called the sub-continental (Indian sub-continent) mentality. I am familiar with it and have learnt how to cope/tolerate but not to accept. The Americans also used it on Putin. When Hillary Clinton “reset” US-Russian relations she said that she can walk and chew gum at the same time.
The best example of this sub-continental mentality can be found in this comment section itself, scroll down to read the comment of an Indian named Avarachan. He has highlighted all the points that are not in favor of the Pakistanis but doesn’t care about the points that are in favor of the Pakistanis.
of a traitor. Modi plays both side…
India’s role in groveling to the US Empire and begging to be accepted as ‘honorary Whites’ is pathetic. It reminds one of the days of the English Raj, and the Anglo-Indian compradores. The Indian elites are furious that, starting from equivalent positions in the late 40s (although China was devastated by Japanese occupation and genocide, then a vicious civil war)China has so far outstripped India that there is no comparison. India and its patrons in the West keep predicting India will catch up and surpass China, but there is as much chance of that as my flying, backwards, to the Moon. So India has, under the Hindutva fascist Modi, chosen to take on the role of loyal dog for the Empire, barking impotently at the Chinese, and turning their backs on the New Silk Road in a fit of pointless spite, probably on orders from their Masters in Thanatopolis DC.
Thanatopolis DC, great.
The US can now only offer guns, not roses and certainly not butter. The Chinese economy is now changing and upgrading virtually at the speed of light. Almost literary as fast as one’s computer screen changing tabs. The financial markets are now treating China as a fully developed country. The previous under-valuation to compensate for the risks of emerging markets is now moving to full valuation. 2017 saw a game-changing improvement in the efficiency of capital allocation as noted from the efficiency in the use of credit – increasing profitability without increase in capital utilisation/investment. I have a feeling that the size of China’s economy will rocket past the US in exchange rate terms in 2020 with a growth of more than 8%. Only internal negative in China’s outlook is falling birthrate. But I think this will likely be remedied with penalties for not having at least 2 children in the family just as there were penalties imposed for having more than one child in the past. China is becoming an economy that produces all types of goods that the world wants in increasing quantity, quality and price competitiveness. The new B&R trade routes will enable the world’s commerce flows to China, not just goods flowing outwards from China. They will come to China to buy and sell, invent, innovate and make and plan and invest both into China and out to the rest of the world. Anything to stop this from happening? The US needs a war, a world war to stop China and help rebuild its economy as what WW2’s massive requirement for labour and capital did to lift the US up from depression. The only difference now is that the US may not be able to win WW3. That’s why it is looking for unwitting cannon fodders, preferably neuclear armed like India. We shall see how China cope with India.
Simon
Forcing people not to have children didn’t work out so well then, did it. It was exactly the wrong policy. Much pointless suffering was caused by it. Now the suggestion is to force people to have children instead. Much suffering will be caused by that. Here is a better plan. Why not just stay the hell out of other people’s bedrooms and let them decide for themselves what to do? After all, that is THEIR business and no-one else’s.
The looming problem for China is not the birthrate though. It is what is known as the Red Ponzi! The financing of much of the economy internally has been done by debt and by issuing fiat. Much is un-repayable and ought to be written down. That is, it is bad debt. But doing that would collapse many outfits indeed, government stuff included. Already there have been warning signals throughout the country, yet bad investments fail to be liquidated. Instead we see increasingly desperate govt intervention. So far time has been bought. Expect a correction nevertheless. It will be a big one. The government is aware of the problem and are concerned about managing the collapse of the bubble without the potential danger of setting off civil unrest. This is a looming problem for the Chinese govt gets to deal with. It is going to be interesting to see how they do it. Forget about babies.
Siotu. No, I cannot forget about the babies. I was never for the one-child policy. I even argued this in China with my relatives.
I am even more against abortion as one of the means to achieve the one-child policy. This was Deng’s idea and thoroughly short-sighted, not to mention barbarous and murderous.
But now there is really nothing wrong with giving incentives for people to have more babies and failing that use social sanctions, like say, more taxes, to force people not to be selfish but to maintain the future generation for the sake of the nation. There is nothing inhuman about this, unlike abortion which was used (still used in some cases) to enforce the one-child policy.
As people get richer, they tend to be selfish, especially the (Asian) ladies. They want to totally enjoy their lives for themselves, having being brain-washed by Western feminist-freedom-emancipation of women lifestyles propaganda. But children and bringing them up are very enjoyable. I can vouch for that personally.
The problem is to bring up good children and provide for them till they graduate from university, if they are good at studies. In this, the state can help elevate the financial disincentive of having more children.
In China’s case, a good argument can be made that it is the patriotic duty of all good citizens to bring up at least three, if not four children. It was the state that caused the problem. The state should not just reverse policy but pro-actively ensure that the birth-rate is raised in order to ensure the survival of the nation.
The one child diktat was the direct result of Chairman Mao’s “Hero Mother” decision which added 400 million in thirty years. It was necessary to go this route to slow things down.
mod-to note: Link removed – rule #10
And Siotu. As for China’s economy, I have posted before that the quality of her economy is about to be tested by Trump’s Section 301 tariffs. Another test is coming as US multinationals repatriate over USD 2.5 trillion in profits that were hoarded overseas (due to US tax rate of 35%) as a result of Trump cutting the tax rate to 21%.
Will the Yuan crash again as in 2015? We shall see. We shall also see in the next 2 years to 2020 whether what you said about the Chinese economy (which you described disparagingly as the “Red Ponzi), that due to its internal ‘debt’ there will be a ‘big’ correction. The western nay-sayers had been saying this since 2005.
However, I don’t think they are correct because 1) the great bulk of China’s debt is in Yuan, i.e. internally owed and owed mainly by GLCs and local government – like left pocket owe right pocket; 2) the efficiency in the use of credit is increasing; 3) the productivity of the Chinese economy is increasing exponentially with the use of AI. E.g. production of munitions increased 3-fold with robots and with much less human labour; 4) China is increasing employment at 12-13 million new jobs a year for the last 5 years which are mainly not dependent on exports but on the internal consumer market, especially the services sector; 5) China is not only reducing credit but increasing the efficiency of credit allocation; 6) China has not only transitioned from an export dependent economy but also ungraded to a knowledge/innovation economy and in the process, rejuvenated its North-Eastern ‘Rust-Belt’ and turbo-charged its southern regions and pulling the entire country forward economically including its far western regions and Tibetan regions.
China has out-performed the US economically and is now leaping ahead. The US multi-nationals may repatriate their USD 2.5 trillion profit to take advantage of the one-off 15.5% tax on such profits. But this repatriation is likely to be a one-off affair to “launder/legitimatize” their profits before rushing off-shore again. This is because its a no-brainer as to where to put one’s money – in an economy struggling to grow at 2% per year or in an economy easily growing at 6.9% per year and going to be twice as large as the US economy in another 5-6 years? Besides, with the possible demise of the Petrodollar, the US economy may experience an even more drastic correction!
I will still put my money on China out-performing the US for at least the rest of this century.
One thing that the IMF either deliberately failed to understand in order to trick countries into making mistakes or it is really incompetent. Such incompetence is not new. In the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis and even before, the IMF demanded austerity before it will bail out the country. This made the resulting recession even more severe (e.g. Indonesia) and harder and longer to recover from. Only Malaysia wisely refused to do so and introduced capital controls instead. As a result, Malaysia did not suffer from a recession, unlike other countries that followed the IMF advice.
In the case of China, the IMF had been chanting the mantra of China needing to rein in what it said is a credit binge. But the issue is not the amount of credit. The real issue is, as with all resources, how efficiently credit is utilised in an economy. In other words the issue is the efficient allocation of credit. To blindly reduce credit even to the efficient sectors is to tamp down the economy indiscriminately. But China wisely refuse to follow the IMF’s likely maliciously silly advice.
China in 2017 improved the allocation of credit without turning off the credit tap. Hence corporate profits increased without a corresponding increase in capital utilisation. But credit is still freely available in the economy.
Simon
In the matter of how many children an individual wishes to have, or indeed, whether they want any at all, that is their business, not yours and not the government. Stay out of other people’s bedrooms. Other people have no duty to procreate to satisfy your wishes and values, nore indeed those of anyone else either. What they do with their lives is a matter for themselves. After all, they own their own lives. Neither you, nor I, nor anyone in government has a legitimate claim of ownership in the lives of anyone else.
The barbaric occurrences of the “one child policy” were totally immoral and completely avoidable. Now it turns out that there are growing problems through society because of it. Perhaps we could be charitable and ascribe purity of heart, perfect honesty and a generous benevolent concern for all Chinese people to the bureaucrats and politicians who thought this thuggery up and ruthlessly executed it. Perhaps we could pretend that they did not forsee the evils that would be committed at their orders and, indeed, by many of them. Nor, perhaps, did they consider the longer term consequences which have now become evident. Perhaps these eloquent, oh so educated “leaders” did not understand that they are not omniscient, omnipotent, perfect beings of goodness and true light. Perhaps…
Trouble is that even a cursory moment’s thought brings the realisation that this policy was going to dump immoral horrors on thousands and thousands of people, that it would have large scale effects and produce massive distortions throughout the society long into the future. Policies, like medication, come with unintended consequences. It is those unintended consequences which are always overlooked by super-humans like bureaucrats and politicians. After all, how could they admit their own shortcomings (you know, the ones which make them unfit to rule over a single solitary life of any other person) for were they to do that, then they could not in all honesty rule. Think on it.
In terms of the “encouragements” to procreate that you are suggesting, perhaps you might care to look at places where exactly those policies have been implemented over a period of time. There are plenty of regimes which have tried this in the past. Some have tried it over generations. The unintended consequences are severe and not at all good. The devastation wreaked on individuals, throughout communities, onto whole societies is major, yet casually ignored. I suggest that these issues ought not to be ignored. They are awful tragedy, major suffering and completely avoidable. Think on what you wish to force on others again.
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Turning now to China’s economy. The debt to GDP ratio is over 250% and growing. That is a lot. It is a problem of severe concern to the leadership of China, especially since around 2/3 of it has been racked up by SOEs (state owned enterprise). Xi Jinping publicly stated that financial stability is the cornerstone of a successful economy. He has urged regulations and supported changes in an attempt to stave off a disaster. I am interested in how this plays out. Can the government avoid a social catastrophe? If so, how do they guide the economy further into Capitalism (for the increasing commercialisation of the SOEs is exactly that)? So, I have to watch to see whether China’s central bankers and government people are any more capable of dealing with such troubles than anyone else has been so far.
I note a commonly held idea that the Chinese debt is not important since they “owe it to themselves”. That is, the debt is realised by moving the currency from “one pocket to the other”, hence no harm done. This trivialises the seriousness of the problem by failing to consider whose pockets get emptied and whose are filled. Such transfers of wealth are not without effect and they certainly are not harmless.
Things to bear in mind.
– There are no free lunches.
– All debts are realised, one way or another.
– The unspoken and the unseen are key, as they have far greater and powerful effect than is commonly understood.
– Economic, political and national myths rely on suspense of critical faculties and the adoption of willful ignorance.
– Ignorance is no antidote to reality.
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Best of luck with your children. I hope they are all doing AOK.
Cheers
S
Siotu.
1) China’s population: I rest my case on this issue. I have said what I need to say.
2) As for China’s internal debt – they are mainly for the country’s infrastructure which see returns not directly as return on equity but indirectly by supporting China’s rapid economic growth.
By right the expenditure for infrastructure should be from China’s fiscal budget. But, for some reasons, China seems to have chosen to fund its construction through internally generated debts.
But such debts can be written off if China wants to do so since they are owed by the left pocket to the right pocket, so to speak. To give you an indication of the scale of China’s infrastructure spending: from 2011 to 2013 i.e. three years, China used more cement than the US did during the entire 20th century.
What China did to build infrastructure is like what the US Fed did with QE by buying bonds. Only the funds raised were used to bail out US banks facing bankruptcy and to inflate away US external debts which were owed in USD.
But the “debts” China incurred were transformed into tangible, long-lasting and economically very productive assets – infrastructure which is the world’s most modern and efficient.
The US Fed is now re-balancing its Balance Sheet by selling bonds – which is a form of tapering. China can without much fanfare write off its internal Yuan debts without impacting its economy, which is unlike the Fed’s sale of bonds which has the effect of tightening liquidity in the economy.
I repeat, those Yuan “debts” did not vanish into thin air or corrupt private or corporate pockets like the US Treasury’s QE which started with the TARP program of USD800 billion and finally ended with a total of USD 4.5 trillion QE. China’s debts were transformed into infrastructure assets which will sustain China’s economic transformation into the foreseeable future.
The US Treasury QE to bail out the bans did not include the Fed’s bonds buying. All these trillions vanished literally into thin air with US infrastructure still among the worst in the developed world! Please direct your concern at the US. The buffoons now in charge with their increasingly more voodoo-like economics do not bode well for the US.
Siotu. As for my children, I don’t need “luck”. But thank you for your good wishes anyway. By the blessing of Jesus Christ my Lord and Saviour, my children have grown up well. They are professionals in the hard disciplines in their chosen field. I am already a grandfather. Another grandson is on the way. I am very positive about the future because Almighty God, my Father in Heaven, is in control!
Siotu. I would also add, my children are also God-fearing and Jesus Christ loving. Praise the Lord!
The Chinese prevented hundreds of millions of excess population being born, a great triumph, although with much human suffering, but certainly LESS than if the population had grown that much greater. The Chinese will not ‘force’ anyone to have two children, save by social campaigning and financial incentives.And you’re not one of those tragi-comic figures who’ve been predicting a ‘Chinese collapse’ since 1984-at least-are you?
And no, I was never one of those who predicted the collapse of China. I was and still am very positive about the prospects of China
MM,
The policy had most people’s understanding at the time. It was obvious that we were poor, under equipped, and too many people. Mao had followed Stalin into encouraging big family, but with only 10% of world farm-able land to feed 20% of world population, it was quite obvious to everyone that what we had to do. The restriction started from 3 then 2, then 1. The starving people of Africa and Bangladesh reinforce the belief. Lack of enough resource for survival are one of main reason for wars and discontent. No matter what others say of the policy, it has popular support in China.
J, at the most China prevented 400 million births since Deng enforced the one-child policy I.e. less than 30% of the present population of 1.4 billion. Even so, the density of China’s population is less than that of Japan and Europe. What a waste of potential manpower and talent.
But since 1980, China’s economy expanded 100 fold or 10,000%. China does not lack the resources to support a population equal to the population density of Japan or Europe.
E.g. the problem with its water resources is not shortage but pollution, wastage and inefficiency in distribution.
Look at the Yang Tze river in flood! Even Xinjiang does not lack water resources as there are underground aquifers.
Other countries have made their deserts productive – grain, fruits and vegetables with drip irrigation and fertiliser application technology.
China can make Xinjiang bloom. Also Tibet and Inner Mongolia. China, in my estimate can support a far larger population.
Do not compare China with Bangladesh and Africa. We Chinese have been taught from young to be self-dependent – something the Africans and Pakistanis are learning from us.
When you talk about “10% of arable land” you have not factored in modern technology. With it almost any land can be made “arable”.
I was with a government official in another underdeveloped country looking at a flat plateau of green but very much underutilised land. The government official said the soil is too acidic for grain farming. This is a minor problem that can be easily and economically fixed.
Same thing with hilly laterite soil. The western agriculture texts regard laterite soil (eroded granite) as infertile and too acidic. But tropical fruit trees loved them. Also oil palms. Therefore China has yet to develop its vast land resources. There is no need to worry about overpopulation in China for the foreseeable future.
They will have to wait to be born into a lot better environment in later time. I do not think they will Complaint.
China is finally succeeding in capping the population and you want them to have more babies now?! This mentality so many people have that somehow it’s necessary for population to increase forever baffles me.
Falling birthrate is a feature, not a bug.
I find it curious that Mr. Escobar doesn’t analyze the fine print of these BRI agreements.
Many Pakistani journalists are starting to ask questions: there are troubling indications that China is trying to turn Pakistan into its colony. As an example, one can examine the marble-mining and marble-processing industries.
http://www.atimes.com/article/chinas-marble-exploits-hurt-pakistans-value-added-economy/
“Whether you prefer to blame bad governance or a lack of indigenous entrepreneurialism in Pakistan, it is hard to escape the conclusion that the country’s natural resources are now being plundered by Islamabad’s trusted friend, China. The results are damaging for the country’s economy and for local businesses …. A study by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reveals that “China is the biggest [exporter] of marble from Pakistan; however, the marble exported to China also includes semi-processed marble, which is then re-exported from China after value addition, which is hurting Pakistan’s marble industry to a significant extent.”” This is exactly what a colonizer does to a colony: take its raw material, add value to that raw material, and keep most of the profit for itself.
The study by the State Bank of Pakistan is here: http://www.sbp.org.pk/departments/ihfd/Sub-Segment%20Booklets/Marble%20and%20Marble%20Products.pdf
Regarding CPEC, see this article as a start:
https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101
“The plan envisages a deep and broad-based penetration of most sectors of Pakistan’s economy as well as its society by Chinese enterprises and culture. Its scope has no precedent in Pakistan’s history in terms of how far it opens up the domestic economy to participation by foreign enterprises.”
Also, this:
https://www.dawn.com/news/1346390/advancing-cpec-by-stealth
So why has Pakistan not added value to its raw materials? Same issue for Australia. Digs up dirt and a train or truck takes it to a port and then China adds value – happened with Iron ore, copper, etc. Will happen with Lithium. Why is it China’s fault that the locals can’t figure it out and add value? Seems like whining to me. It does help to try and understand how China exploits raw materials and technology.
@Avarachan & Nexus. Same trouble with South Africa, exporting raw diamonds instead of cutting them locally. Exporting ore and importing machinery. Unbalanced. Our respective countries — Pakistan, Oz & RSA — have not yet outgrown our Anglo-Capitalist-Colonial tutelage. Whereas China was never colonized by the Anglos.
Correction: China was never FULLY colonised by the Anglos.
But they were set about every which way and suffered greatly. The hundred years of humiliation saw China suffer terrible depredation. Opium wars waged to force drugs on the Chinese; compensation equivalent to a year’s GDP extracted from China, plus treaty terms to open up the market; HK carved out as an opium and tea trading outpost for the Brits.
The Chinese were in disarray and at the mercy of the colonial powers.
Apart from the internal strive from the many local insurrections, including the Taiping rebellion which took at least 20 million lives, China had to contend with a brutal Japanese occupation, the Brits muddying the water in its western border, Russia annexing lands to the northeast, and let’s not forget WWII. The bulk of the Japanese forces were tied up in China, and millions of civilians died, just as the bulk of the Nazi military engine were tied up and destroyed in Russia. But we are told it was America & Britain that decisively won the war.
The fact of the matter is: India or Pakistan were spared from the ravages of WWII. Much of Africa was escaped too. Certainly, South Africa did. There is no excuse about not having “outgrown our anglo-capitalist-colonial tutelage”. How many decades has it been since independence?
@Esby. Your correction or rather amplification is welcomed: China was never FULLY colonized by the Anglos, it only suffered horrendous losses at their hands. (I wrote too short). Nevertheless my main point stands: China escaped the FULL Anglo-Zio-Capitalist Colonial “tutelage” (euphemism for dependency brainwashing) that still afflicts the British “Commonwealth” countries. And the second, more detailed story, reinforces the first: not only did China escape full Capitalist-Colonial-dependency brainwashing but their suffering and eventual victory stiffened their Socialist independence. This is the thesis of “L’Afrique Noire est Mal Placee”; only it is by no means restricted to Black Africa.
“God helps those who help themselves; and God help those who dont”.
It is a matter of competitive advantage. You do what you are best at and are able to do.
For example, Australia has developed a good mineral extraction industry (although it is not going quite as well as before in more recent times). On the other hand Australia is not so strong at manufacturing (that is, adding value). There are plenty of reasons. The major one is the policies, legislation and regulation of the Australian government. It has set a series of destructive hindrances in place which have had the effect of wrecking the potential of Australia to really develop and thrive in the manufacturing sector. Basically, the people who work in government are not the brightest or the smartest or even very talented. They are usually well educated, yet in practice banal to stupid in terms of their decisions and outlook. The types of policies and deals such cretins generate are for the most part of similar quality to the nature of those who made them.
So, for Australia manufacturing is limited, minerals less so. Hence you do what you are able to do. For Australia, that is mineral extraction and, as it happens, they are good at it.
Australians are groveling lackeys to the USA, which owns much of its economy. The mining industry, in particular, is well over 50% foreign owned. Australia makes nothing, its infrastructure is a joke (the Internet NBN is an international laughing-stock) and its private debt per capita is the highest on Earth. And China keeps its economy afloat, with a massive trade surplus to Australia, tens of thousands of students and well over one million tourists per year, in return for which the Austfailian ‘elite’ compete to be the most vicious in spitting in China’s face and opening the country up as a base for US forces for the coming war to ‘bring China Down’. A ‘Lucky Country’ that turned into a Lackey Country, awaiting its comeuppance.
The day when Pakistan becomes a manufacturing power-house will come as CPEC jump-starts its economy and the social political situation stabilise as a result. For example, to “add value” to anything, one needs power, especially electrical power. Pakistan is not yet able to generate enough electricity for this and social-political instability precludes the training of a work-force for industrialisation.
So let CPEC has its effect and help Pakistan to industrialise. Don’t be distracted by the western slander that to borrow from China is to fall into China’s “debt trap”. The West had been putting the developing countries into debt slavery (often with the help of the IMF) for generations.
Same in the USA now.. timber, crude oil, ores (including Uranium), fishing stocks, the bounty of our agriculture, California’s scare water off-shored to KSA in the form of alfalfa to feed their horses! .. All things once considered to be for Americans first. When it comes back refined or finished we have paid other nations and peoples for the difference. Congress and endless Bureaucrats enable it all with little fanfare. America has been colonized by the same forces, be they the IMF goons or simply the free movement of Capital..
It could be seen as Karma.
Txnr. But the Americans are paying for all the value-added privilege with nothing but fiat dollars – uphelp by Saudi oil and enforced on the rest of the world by American guns. So what are you complaining about? Maybe you can complain if the free-lunch party is ending as it seems to be now.
Avatachan. Pakistan is like the Africans. They need the infrastructure for economic development. How are they to pay for it? There is no dignity in begging. The West gave monetary and other ‘aid’ knowing full well that the Africans cannot build or maintain the infrastructure themselves due to lack of know-how and corruption. They also sold weapons to both sides of many conflicts, prolonged them and plunder the Africans’ resources as ‘payment’ for the weapons. China went in despite the West hyping loudly about ‘risks’. They told the Africans that they are there to do business not to give ‘aid’. This the Africans found more dignifying. The growth of Africa since 2000 testifies to the success of China in Africa. In the same way, Pakistan will first pay for her infrastructure with her natural resources which the Chinese are buying at global prices. But the Western slanderers made it as though China is stealing from Pakistan. The West knows more about stealing and plundering than anybody else..They have and are still doing it – stealing and plundering. The involvement of China, now also in the Belt and Road initiative as well as de-dollarisation, will finally help to stop Western plundering and stealing. The West’s WW3 will be about preventing China from doing this. And India is likely to be the West’s cannon fodder in this unless India changes course.
As for China’s cultural penetration, China is sharing her can-do self-dependent culture with Pakistan, likely at the behest of Pakistan herself. After all Islam advised its followers to seek wisdom from China. If Pakistan succeeds in learning from China, Pakistan will rocket past India faster than India do Hindtva dance. This is really what India is afraid of.
Hi Simon, you comments here are dead on.
Indian not only worried about Pakistan, but also worries about all its neighbors:
India can’t allow its neighbours to drift away to China: Gen Bipin Rawat
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-cant-allow-its-neighbours-to-drift-away-to-china-gen-bipin-rawat/articleshow/62476233.cms
J, India’s neighbours will ‘drift’ away from India when they rocket past India economically via China’s B&R. And there is little India can do about this.
In fact the enrichment of India’s neighbours will cause turmoil in India itself as it became very clear that the Federal government is impoverishing the entire country. India’s east and south will agitate for more autonomy. The Assam region will fight all the more for outright independence.
The US is likely aware of this. That is why it is doubling up its effort to trap India as its cannon folder in the QUAD.
But we are looking at the self-disintegration of India unless India change course.
A case in point: India changed the way she calculates her GDP in order to show higher growth. But it is jobless growth. Besides voodoo statistics, India also applied voodoo economics in demonetizing her 500 rupee notes. India’s population is increasing at 13 million per year. But only 1.5 million new jobs were created in the 4 years of the Modi regime. This disparity cannot go on without something breaking.
Modi is likely to turn to war to distract attention away from India’s problem and reduce the population.
I do remember the street full of Indian young men protesting Chinese company who provides livelyhood to them and many Indian population Dividends who otherwise would most likely be on the street making almost nothing. Not many people in the world as ungrateful as you:
After Oppo flag row, India says national symbols everywhere should be respected
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/after-oppo-flag-row-india-says-national-symbols-everywhere-should-be-respected/story-1652A8r1DfRgxj3W6sPIVL.html
But of cause, you have no problem putting demand on your small neighbors:
India can’t allow its neighbours to drift away to China: Gen Bipin Rawat
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-cant-allow-its-neighbours-to-drift-away-to-china-gen-bipin-rawat/articleshow/62476233.cms
J, India, as is increasingly apparent, needs to be dragged screaming and kicking away from her colonised mindset inferiority complex. The US is determined to keep her in that mental strait-jacket. China will have to help do it. And Russia too. Also Pakistan when she rocket past India in economic and scientific development!
@Simon Chow: In 2014, India beat China and Japan in the race to Mars.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Orbiter_Mission
Please get re-acquainted with reality.
Also, regarding CPEC, it seems that the biggest project will be agriculture. And it’s agriculture that will be controlled by China, from seed to distribution of the harvest. Pakistanis are right to be concerned. Read the last two links in my original comment.
Apparently it is more important for the Indians to place a satellite in the Martian orbit than to lift their millions out of poverty. Oh I forgot the sub-continental mentality that Simon Chow spoke about. Glorify the martian mission but ignore forget about the Chinese manned mission.
You give the example of one field where India got first ahead of China while conveniently ignoring the all the other fields in which China absolutely surpassed India.
How much delusional can you really get by comparing China with India?
There cannot be any comparison between China and India in 21st century. It’s like comparing USA with Mexico. Instead India should be compared to Pakistan and Bangladesh. Even Pakistan ranks ahead of India on Inclusive Development Index.
http://www.news18.com/news/business/world-economic-forum-ranks-india-below-china-pakistan-on-inclusive-development-index-1638579.html.
All of India’s neighbors are interested in trade deals with China because China offers more win-win opportunities and India sees it as a betrayal that shouldn’t happen. The Indian army general says that this shouldn’t be allowed, why? why can’t it’s neighbors indulge in their own independent foreign policy? why is every trade deal with China by India’s neighbors seen as the Chinese gaining influence and trying to encircle India? how much paranoid can the Indians get? this is why Indian’s neighbors don’t like India’s behavior, India interfering in their domestic affairs, it happened in Nepal, the Nepalese were angry, it happened again in Dokalam and the Bhutanese are angry but the Indian media shows it otherwise. The Indian median shows it as some new kind of Chinese colonialism and debt-trap to keep the Indians masses in slumber and the Indian public willfully digests it instead of questioning it’s government’s domestic and foreign policies. One neighbor can be stupid not all. Pakistan can be stupid but not Nepal, Myannmar, Bhutan, Srilanka and Bangladesh.
And why do you worry about the Pakistanis, let them suffer if the deal is bad for them. Instead focus about the same kind of deal in your country made with the Japanese for bullet trains. The bullet train is largely funded by a 50-year loan provided by the Japanese government and the Japanese are likely to supply over 70% of the components of the bullet train. The Japanese companies have grabbed all major contracts of the bullet train project. So much for ‘make in India’ and creating jobs locally.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/railways/japan-in-drivers-seat-for-indian-bullet-train-deals/articleshow/62548996.cms
I advice the Indians to get reacquainted with the reality instead. It doesn’t help the Indians to stay inside a bubble of their own wishful thinking and bury their heads in sand while staying aloof of the reality. because when reality hits, it hits really hard.
@Anonymous: You seem angry. I wonder why.
There are many examples of India being ahead of China. One can look at the Chinese Z-10 versus the Indian Light Combat Helicopter (LCH).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAIC_Z-10
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HAL_Light_Combat_Helicopter
https://thebetacoefficient.blogspot.com.ng/2015/04/why-lch-is-sports-car-compared-to.html
“The Z-10’s empty weight is 5,540 kg and the LCH even in its current [April 2015] overweight mode is about 2,800-3,000 kg. And yet the Z-10 is powered by the same net total power as the LCH (~2,000 KW for the Z-10 versus ~1,700 KW for the LCH). That’s a nasty combination in terms of performance, both at sea-level and at high altitudes. The effect of additional weight versus power required is non-linear for rotary flying machines.”
Avarachan. Looks like whether India’s or China’s helicopters and other equipment are better than the other is going to be put to the test soon. Both India and China are gearing up for war. I can sense it.
Avarachan, the Chinese actually love the Indians. Please look at how much they love Uncle Aamar Khan and his two blockbuster movies – Dangal and Secret Superhero.
China is not India’s enemy. Neither were they rivals. Had never been historically. There was a time when India was ahead of China and India freely shared her knowledge with China. Chinese scholars went to India to learn.
The present animosity between India and China was sown by the West. Ever since Romans times the West are masters at divide and rule. They have been doing this between India and China since the Opium Wars. The 1962 Sino-India border war was was instigated by the West. It’s too long to explain to you in this forum.
The present rivalry is virtually certainly a Western ploy. They want to re-dominate the world and China is in their way. Also Russia. I repeat: India and China are natural partners NOT rivals. That they are rivals is a Western lie!
And Avarachan, the two articled in your links by Dawn gives the low down on CPEC. I am familiar with those sentiments.
But effectively, Pakistan is plugging into the power of the Chinese economy to help lift itself up from poverty. Pakistan is wise to accept that she needs China’s help. So does India.
But Indian arrogance together with Western malicious insinuations are blinding India from seeing this.
I do not think India was ever better than china. They did not even exist before. Buddhism is grew out of disgust of hindusm. Buddha was from Nepal.
India think they own the subcontinent, and dream of Tibet. However, it has nothing to support their feeling, or more precisely the feeling of upper caste Hindu entitlement than the run away population.
Not long ago, one Hindu dare to comment that Hindu population will fill up border areas, that can not be stopped. Something has to give IMHO. All those unemployable young males have to have something to do, they will fight over women, food, water and etc. they either spill over the borders, where heavily armies and monitored, or they will kill each other. We will find out soon enough.
J, there was a time during the Three Kingdom period – between the end of the Han Dynasty and the beginning of the Tang Dynasty – when civil war reduced China’s population to about 10 million – Mao’s estimate. That was the very low period of Chinese civilisation.
J, Buddha may be from Nepal, but Buddhism flourished in India. Asoka the Great of the Maurya Empire, ruling from 304 BC to 232 BC as a Buddhist. The Maurya Empire was Buddhist. Buddhism then began its Northern, Southern and Eastern spread. This was the period when China was divided and the warring states were killing one another during the warring states period. The wars stopped only in 221 BC when Qin Shi Huang Ti conquered all the warring states, put an end to feudalism and unified China.
Avarachan. As for Agriculture, China will help Pakistan upgrade her agriculture. It is in the CPEC project paper. The “control” and the renting of land is to demonstrate to the Pakistanis how to do it and at the same time give them hands-on training. I have also trained others in the hard professional disciplines. There is no better way than hands-on training under my personal supervision (“control” to you). In one of the disciplines – IT system configuration, integration and implementation – hands-on training is critical. Other than hands-on, the trainees can hardly learn. Helping the Pakistanis upgrade their agriculture will have to involve hands-on training. In CPEC, China has formulated a practicable method. Can you suggest a better method?
@Simon Chow: Who will keep most of the profit from these farms on Pakistani land? Who will the executives for these companies be? Will there be a program to transfer knowledge from the Chinese executives to the Pakistanis? Who will retain the intellectual-property rights of any innovations made by the Pakistani laborers?
Avarachan.
1) Profits: The owners of the companies which provided the risk capital and know-how will keep “most of the net after-tax profits (after paying all expenses involved in the production like wages and salaries and fertilisers etc and taxes). The workers, which includes Pakistanis, get to keep their wages and their experience and know-how derived from their work and training under Chinese managers and foremen.
2) Executives: I would expect the senior executives of these companies would initially be Chinese. The junior executives or trainees would be Pakistanis. These are expected to be promoted as they gain experience and competence, and not otherwise. I expect them to gradually replace even the top management of these companies if they are proven capable.
3) As for intellectual-property rights to any innovation, normally they would remain the property of the company even though the company’s employees made them because these employees made them using the resources of the company. Unless they have a special agreement with the company or Pakistani laws state otherwise.
Usually labourers do not produce “intellectual property” since they work with their muscles. Its the engineers, scientists and other professionals who work with their brains and therefore produce “intellectual property”. So your question about “Pakistani laborers”missing out on “intellectual property rights” does not arise.
But the Pakistani laborers gain experience, hands-on training and become highly skilled. They may even learn entrepreneur skills from their Chinese bosses. And if they have entrepreneur skills, they will sack their bosses in due time and launch out into business themselves.
But for this they need the social/political stability which CPEC is expected to provide by jump-starting and launching the Pakistani economy into an entirely new era of inclusive growth i.e. with jobs aplenty. Unlike Narendra Modi’s jobless economic ‘growth’ so far.
They have their white master for that. Chinese are not slightly interested.
And J, looks like the first shots of the Sino-Indian War version 2.0 had already been fired – by Pakistan:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/907950/World-War-3-India-Pakistan-Line-of-Control-evacuation-Jammu-and-Kashmir
Simon,
It is all MIC talking. There is not going to be WWIII. They has been at it for some time. Indian has been threaten Pakistan and killing Civilian and Soldiers alike. Election is coming in India. Although there is election in Pakistan too, but the contest is more based on economy. Their growth rate is going to be over 6%, and no more load shading, road are building every where, and there is talk of Chinese cell phone and laptop assembly companies moving to Pakistan in a few month base on some bank information. They have too much to live for than looking for WWIII. They ruling party is rebounding, and doing better than challenger because they actually making things happen in Pakistan.
Imran Khan should be worried
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1613890/6-imran-khan-worried/
Indian however is different story. There is nothing for Modi to show for next election, border tension and communal hatred are BJP go to tools. Of cause the west want Indian to Buy there army, the hindu nationalists want to defense spending gets to 3%.
Escalating border tensions: India’s policy objectives
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1613893/6-escalating-border-tensions-indias-policy-objectives/
Of cause, Indian has a different view.
One problem is India is non-trustworthy. They will come out today say lets fight poverty together, and next day some one will come out and say they are ready for 2 and 1/2 war, the next election they will say Pakistan is messing with their election.
However, that said, I also can not trust that Indian will not start a nuke war either. They are too un-rooted to be trusted of anything. To make the neighborhood safer and prosper, the key is to break up India. Breaking up India, it does not require a WWIII.
J, it is the Indian subcontinental mentality. Just call it sub-mentality for short. The Americans are now also affected by this type of mentality. Just look at the Janus-faced contradictory statements emanating from the Trump Administration and from the US in general.
Looking at Pepe’s map, one can see why the Anglo-Zio-Capitalists are at war with Yemen and Iran: both countries — one at each end of the ME — have a main staging point for China’s trade initiative from East to West & vv; Teheran on the land route, and Yemen facing Djibouti across the “Strait of Tears” for the sea route. Choke those points and you choke Chinese competition for the globalist AZC.
Good point.
Yes it is obvious that the road ends in Europe, or starts if you like. Matter of fact is that the EU and China are the worlds largest economies. This fact will of course upset Americans but it is nevertheless reality. Eu and China realized this long time ago, but to China’s credit OBOR was their idea and they largely finance the initiative. It further has the benefit that it will invigorate some stagnant economies along the route and open them for trade with both China and the EU, negotiations on this is already underway, at least on the EU part. All this is well and good. Awkwardly enough China has not had a problem with that we in Europe wish to retain key technologies…
The strategic implications is not lost on the EU either, as the US grows more belligerent (yes it is possible) and threatens almost everyone with sanctions and whatnot, but the US apparently fails to recognize that the buying power of the American population as a whole is dwindling fast (Complicated to explain, but short: Regananomics) and the US is fast becomming a nation of impoverished people on minimum wage income, (Like Britain), with 0,001 % becoming very wealthy. In the end they can eat their money (Davos sentiment from 2016).
So the US is fuming, they cant skim any cash on the OBOR and accordingly they do everything they can to obstruct it. Typical US, if you will not give it they try to take it. That’s been the American way since the 60’ties.
It will be interesting to see what happens in coming years, China has the US in an iron grip, too much trouble a switch from petrodollar to petroyan could happen. oouch for us in the West, but most for the US.
I am not sure that the BRI silk-roads necessarily end in Europe. Europe is one of the Terminus. The other Terminus? I can venture a guess. But I won’t.
It is important that The Silk Road is out of the reach of The US Navy. China, Russia & EU can build a whole new world secure from thalassocracy. A technological advance in a land transportation may make The World’s Ocean unimportant.
Important for the Silk Road to be out of reach of the US Navy? What’s so fearful about the US Navy? Any interdiction by the US Navy of the Maritime Silk Road or by its unwitting cannon folder wannabes will be war and if the US loses, it will raise the hell of WW3. But to let the US Navy deter establishing the Maritime Silk Road is cowardice. China is upgrading her navy fast. The US may want to test China’s Navy soon, likely over Taiwan. Then we shall see either China does not rise or the US retreat back California and likely break up into smaller states.
Hypersonic cruise missiles and high atmospheric weapons systems will make the USA’s beloved aircraft carriers floating crematoria for their crews. They are only ever used against defenceless targets in any case.
Indeed, China is the nation which has put into motion the foreign policy teachings of our Franklin, Washington and Hamilton.
The Chinese and Russians are playing it smart. The Russians have energy and high technology, the Chinese manufacturing. It was logical for them to unite economically and politically. Both are gaining prestige, economic and political partners through trade and respect for the sovereign status of countries with which they are dealing with.
On the other hand, the US, which ostensibly fought against colonialism, is using colonial methods of its previous masters to instigate an imperial policy for the benefit of Wall Street, while at the same time stating that it is spreading “democracy” and “human rights” throughout the world, which is turning into a sick joke. Worse, the American mentality of “winner takes all” does not help things.
As many analysts have stated, the situation in the world is changing at a remarkable pace, as never before. Washington and Wall Street are having trouble understanding this, still living in the past. That is what is dangerous. Worse, Washington thinks it has the esteem which it once had. It does not, not even among it’s European allies, as few really want to be dragged into another US war, certainly not against Russia.
The political and economic center of power is moving towards the east, and Washington better accept this. The question is will it, or will it do something foolish, like picking a new war, for which it will find almost no support.
Wholeheartedly agree! There is no desires in Europe for more wars. France might still be rattling the sabre in its former colonies, but the rest of Europe no.What is a hindrance for development is the sanctions imposed on Russia, which hurt Europeans more than the US or Russia. Russia developed what it needed, and the US gave a shit, the did not trade much whit Russia any way. And now the US is preparing all over again with Iran, I hope we will man up and give the US the finger.
Europe’s interests lie here, not cross Atlantic, here and further East, Russia is Europe.
Den Lille Abe
Unfortunately Washington is incapable of understanding this. Americans as a whole have tough time understanding foreign countries. They assume that Europe will fight World War Three because it has already fought two world wars, willing to fight a third one. Nothing is further from the truth. In fact the notion is absurd. Europe is sick of wars. Greetings.
I think most of us would agree that trade is preferable to war. I just found this link which has some figures about the extent of war’s fuel consumption and the resulting pollution. http://climateandcapitalism.com/2015/02/08/pentagon-pollution-7-military-assault-global-climate/
The US invaded Iraq in 2003. I knew they would do so in 2001. George Bush told his pals in the oil industry that the US military would be needing huge amounts of fuel for the upcoming war in Iraq, and his pals started drilling like crazy to build up fuel stocks for the military.
Do countries along the silk road route that desperately want increased trade and development have realistic alternatives to China?
https://gizadeathstar.com/2018/01/chinas-one-belt-one-road-hitting-potholes/
China’s strategy: Make trade, not war!!!
/make-trade-not-war-is-chinas-daring-plan-in-the-middle-east/
US strategy: Make war, not trade!!!
https://www.rt.com/usa/416526-mike-pence-soldiers-focus-mission/
Question: Who can endure better/longer???
Usa military —> Constantly at war! Stirring up trouble around the world. This is the consequence FOR THEMSELVES!!!
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-18/army-major-were-killing-these-kids-were-breaking-army
Kermit, I have absolutely no evidence, but my hunch about the veteran suicides is that American kids, who often are brought up with basic human decency, cannot handle what they did in their military service: training terrorists, terrorizing and then murdering civilians, acting like animals with lethal weaponry and no consequences. So they kill themselves. Of course, they cannot talk about their beleaguered consciences, because nobody in the US accepts that they were terrorizing or murdering anyone, so they have to stuff it. There’s not an ear to hear it.
Pdb, regarding evidence:
Over decades, footsoldiers of the US empire and their allies/proxies wage vicious war, based on propaganda/deceptions/LIES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-10/you-grow-wanting-be-luke-skywalker-then-realize-youve-become-stormtrooper-empire
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/01/20/ndst-j20.html
“what is being prepared is a level of mass killing far beyond the bloodbaths carried out in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere.”
When they eventually go home, many of these footsoldiers suffer PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder/bad conscience) and suicides.
https://www.verywell.com/oefoif-veterans-and-posttraumatic-stress-ptsd-symtpoms-2797314
Despite this, the wars proliferate and intensify in scale and ferocity. At the end of the day, when the footsoldier/artilleryman/sailer/pilot/drones operator/propagandist/faked news reporter realises what he/she/they (individually and jointly) have done to millions (repeat, MILLIONS) of HUMAN BEINGS, Muslims AND non-Muslims, he/she/they (many of them) kill themselves!!!
http://www.bestcounselingschools.org/statistics-of-veteran-suicides-in-the-u-s/
“Making trade not war” is only a half step away from “making love not war”. May love wins!
Pepe refers to BRI and Northern (Arab and Egyptian) Africa….but aren’t there any Sub-Saharan Africans and West Asians….ie Arabs (Hussein Ashkary in the link below says that’s their own geographical identity….not the western formulated “Middle East”…..) in the Saker Community???
I heard, in person, an old man that has had a great deal to do with the initiation of the New Silk Road policy stress back in the late 1980’s that Equatorial (Eastern and Western) and Southern Africa must also be included in this Grand Vision now coming into being, as a moral test, for all of Humanity.
“They also need to be loved by someone.”, he said
“May love wins!” says Simon, and who could argue with that?
What kills love is fear, and what supports it is wise courage, not recklessness and egoistic bravado.
J and Simon have courage and a lot of balance, without naivete. I am still observing my new Taiwanese friends. They are polite and don’t speak out on politics at all, hardly. Are they trying to be agreeable to their host country here, or still stewing over losing a Civil War, like some in our Southern States?
Hey, at least they (Kuomintang) did something against the Japanese occupiers! They have that consolation. And a pledge from Xi to make China a FULLY democratic country by 2050. PLUS: At this rate , when will the Mainland have higher GDP per capita than Taiwan??
I tell them the split of Vietnam, Korea AND China is something hatched in the geopolitical think tanks of the AZ Empire and these divisions and old wounds are not foreordained until eternity, but they only smile and defer to pessimism, in that regard, saying they can’t see it in their lifetimes.
I hope they are wrong, and know it, and only seeking to drop the uncomfortable subject for either themselves or brainwashed Americans.
Mulga I think from many months past is Aussie and not Chinese Overseas, but I appreciate his contributions and Western Pacific Perspective from my perch on the Eastern Pacific.
Here is Hussein Askary’s West Asian (Arab) perspective on OBOR:
https://youtu.be/ZqVe-l5Qhh8?t=512
Later, in the same presentation, Dr Alexander Demissie (Ethiopian) speaks for black Africans in the same conference in Germany last November:
https://youtu.be/ZqVe-l5Qhh8?t=2524
Bro,
People from Taiwan has many different groups. The people moved to Taiwan and people who lived in Taiwan before KMT got there. It also depend on mix of local Chinese population. Old times in California, There were definitely more people from Taiwan, and China was still poor, you likely meet more people that hate China for many reasons and let it show. Now from what I heard from a friend who just come back from San Diego, she reported that people from Taiwan are no longer feel privileged over people from mainland.
As for pledge of 2050 to full democracy, I hope not, or at least the democracy of current definition. It is a sure way to stifle progress, and encourage mediocrity. I sure way for a speedy decline. The examples are plenty: from Confucius following South Korean, Taiwan, and Hong Kong to US and western Europe.
Bro 93, thanks for the compliments.
I lived in China during the reign of the current President, and his two predecessors, continuously 2002 to 2016. Whilst I witnessed break neck modernisation of housing and construction the Chinese population is still quite primitive in their adaptation to their massively fast “development”.
Pepe has quite a naive and romantic view of China and Chinese business culture.
China’s OBR is how they will export their massive over population and open shop all along the main arteries with their own imported workers and expand out from there, over time. They’ll do what they are doing here in Australia. If they can import there workers they will, legally or illegally.
China is the biggest producer/exporter of chemical recreational drugs.
Chinese are extremely ethnocentric. Whilst they are busy exploiting their own under classes, minorities, peasant farmers, some 2/3 of the population, they will all, when push comes to shove, close ranks and be united against a perceived foe, whether real or imagined.
I recommend that every one go to China for a month, that’s the longest visa you can get, and see for yourself, but don’t go the usual tourist circuits. Most Chinese tour agencies will arrange a fake itinerary so you can travel with the locals and to satisfy government entry requirements, make sure the hotel you want to stay in is approved for foreigners by asking at the desk. Get a Lonely Planet phrase book. 75% of younger under 35 Chinese speak English. US citizens can get a 10 year visa but you got to exit and re-enter every 30 days. Business visas require an exit every 90 days. It is quite safe, especially for western or white skin tourists. You will be overwhelmed by their friendliness, but look beyond that. Always carry tissues, napkins. Be prepared to squat in toilets. Hong Kong is a good intro to China to get accustomed to the over crowding.
Chinese are very much “do as I say, don’t do as I do”.
ersl. We all have failings. Important thing is as we become aware of them, we take action to rectify. As for Chinese “do as I say not as I do” – hahaha, it is applicable in various degree to all. No one is perfect!