Late on June 22, Russian air defense units repelled a massive drone attack on Russia’s Hmeimim air base in Syria. According to local sources, Russian Pantsir and Tor systems launched almost two dozen missiles at unmanned aerial vehicles launched by militants from the southern part of the Idlib de-escalation zone. Syria’s state-run news agency SANA reported that Syrian air defenses were also activated in the Jableh area of Latakia province, where the Russian airbase is located.
Firefights between the Syrian Army and Turkish-led forces broke out near the village of Abu Rasin in the province of al-Hasakah. According to pro-government sources, the fighting erupted when Turkish-backed militants tried to set on fire crops being grown in nearby fields.
Earlier, the Damascus government accused pro-Turkish forces of intentionally burning crops in the area of Turkey’s Operation Peace Spring and nearby areas in order to pressure farmers that do not want to pay bribes to pro-Turkish militants.
The Turkish Army and the Russian Military Police regularly conduct joint patrols along the contact line between Turkish-backed forces and the Syrian Army in northeastern Syria. This allows to prevent the sides from initiating large-scale offensive operations against each other. However, the situation on the ground remains tense.
On June 22, pro-government locals blocked a US military convoy near the village of Fares Kabir in the Syrian province of al-Hasakah. The protesters burned a US flag and forced the convoy to retreat from the area. Positions of the Syrian Army near Kafr Mus, Kawkabah and as-Safah in southern Idlib came under fire from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies early on June 23. Pro-militant sources claim that several army troops were either injured or killed.
On June 21, Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement released a new video threatening Israel with a retaliation strike on its strategic facilities in the event of a new escalation.
“Today, we can not only hit the city of Tel Aviv but also, if God wills it and with His help, we can hit very precise targets within Tel Aviv and anywhere in occupied Palestine,” Nasrallah can be heard as saying during the video.
Israel is pretty sensitive towards such threats and uses them to justify the continuing military campaign against Iranian-backed forces.
In its own turn, Hezbollah often intensifies its propaganda efforts against Israel as the situation in the region is once again heading to a military confrontation or its leadership expects possible Israeli hostile actions that would impact its interests.
Why do the Russians just stand there and take these attacks? Are they unwilling or unable to retaliate effectively? Are their hands tied by the need to coordinate with the SAA and other forces?
Or are they like a man who swats away flies, not really concerned that they pose any threat?
Perhaps the Russians, at least, see the Idlib terrorist hive rather as computer security specialists see “honey pots” – traps that they set up especially to entice malefactors so that their methods can be studied.
There have been hundreds of drone attacks and not a single one has managed to inflict casualties on the Russian airbase. At this point these drones are basically target practice that the Russians are probably using to increase the effectiveness of their radars and short-range systems.
At any rate, the only way to stop the attacks is to completely retake Idlib. This is only possible with a Syrian army offensive. Thus, the decision to stop the attacks completely is in Syria’s hand, not Russia’s.
Oh and by the way, there was a drone attack once that was immediately followed up with a Russian pinpoint airstrike. The Russians released footage of this strike. They wiped out an entire militant drone team. But the drone attacks keep coming – They just send in more cannon fodder. So they probably gave up trying to nullify each individual attack.
As long as the UAV attacks are not doing much damage, not very accurate, carry small loads, etc., it can be counterproductive to respond to every attack with an air strike.
Such responses always reveal a few details of Russian capabilities, their weapons and tactics. A NATO base might respond to such an attack with an outsized air strike, but that has not been the pattern of the Russians in this war effort.
No doubt Moscow knows CIA is behind Turkish probing and Turke is hiding behind Art 5 NATO Charter. However once Egypt with Saudi and UAE enter the fray in Libya it is over for Turkey as France and Italy will refuse to uphold Art 5 for Turkey and Germany will be pressured to cut off arms supplies to Turkey.
The biggest single threat to the EU is not Russia but Turkey. Germany is too afraid of its Erdogan Tribalists in Germany when it should be more worried about its EU neighbours
Paul, Article 5 does not apply outside of the area covered by the North Atlantic Treaty, and Syria is outside that area.
If Turkish forces inside Syria come under attack then Erdogan can no more invoke Article 5 than Nixon could have invoked Article 5 during the Vietnam War, and for exactly the same reason i.e. expeditionary forces deployed in the service of foreign adventurism aren’t covered by the treaty.
my sense of it is that to defeat Turkey is a long term potential thats very iffy..likely counter-productive in the mix. Russian retaliation witll lead to escalation with Turkey which right now is Erdogan. in a while it might not be and new Turkish leadership might be a whole different and progressive proposition than current leadership. if an escalation takes place and Turkey is smashed it may mean Erdogan for longer than he should be leader
if Turkey is paying for Erdogan’s policies it is costly. how long can it be maintained anyway before it becomes a real problem of political economy for Erdogan and his party? isnt it one already?
if the Russian position in the world is multipolarity and support for inviolate independent democracies, involvement in aggressive war.. if Russia responds greater than any attack on it.. does not fit that position..patient resolution of conflict does.
Russia is in Syria by invitation and probably does not have Syria’s agreement to attack anyway..probaly never sought such agreement. defend yes! but not attack regardless..unless Syria wants it and Russia agrees.
but I think Russia would attack only in the most extreme of defensive need, yet still limited. its the long term here, the long game..especially given the involvement of the Americas looking for ways to escalate. are they paying for Turkeys involvement? how can they they are broke?
just my take! Russia will not allow any further Syrian loss of territority and is enabling the Syrian military/Nation capable fo defenfing itsel and to attack when necessary to regain its lost territory. I like how things are going in Syria. Turkey/the West-Israel cant win, wont win
So Russian defence systems do what American systems cannot. See and shoot down drones. The Americans using their proxies to test defences.
Israel managed attacks hitting Syrian bases. So, no excuse about Iranian depots and bases. This is war on Syria.
https://www.rt.com/news/492763-syria-strikes-explosions-israel/
Russia doesn’t want to get involved against Israel, but if Russia wants its missile defenses to protect Syria so it can begin reconstruction and a government can be effective moving forward, Russia must halt these Israeli attacks.
It can be diplomatic. Putin tells Bibi. Gerasimov tells the IDF.
Or it can be kinetic. The full S-400 and S-300 systems, which are integrated when the Russians want it to be, can eliminate the IDF planes.
This cannot continue. It undermines Russian-Syrian relations. It gains nothing for Russia. It only emboldens the IDF to continue and do more.
Can the S-400 really eliminate Israeli ECM planes ? Does Russia really want to show that hand to let Israel develop yet more ECM technology or simply let the US catspaw believe it is secure ?
A Maginot Line defence, which is what Russia is doing in Syria with its Hmeimim Air Base, is ruinous in the long term. A surface to air missile is far more expensive than a cheap disposable drone. This is one of the many, many problems with Russia’s attempt to engage with the Ottoman invaders in Syria. A more intelligent strategy would be to annihilate the drone launching platforms with a missile barrage. Erdogan wouldn’t like it, but the Ottoman Empire would get the message, and the drones would stop. There’s no point in trying to keep Erdogan happy anyway.
annihilate the drone launching platforms
just what is a “drone launching platform” that is so unique and easily destroyed ? Or are you suggesting full thermonuclear warfare ?
Any building, cluster of buildings, lorries or other source of launching the drones. Russian drones and surveillance aircraft at obviously watching for drones to be launched in order to be able to warn the defences, so they also know where and when they’re being launched. Unless they’re being launched from Ottoman military installations I don’t see the slightest reason not to bomb them immediately as terrorist targets. And if they are Ottoman military installations, all the more reason to bomb them to pieces, just to teach Sultan Erdogan the lesson that his activities don’t come without a high, high cost.
It is, however, a great advertisement for your anti-aircraft wares.
So the cost-benefit analysis is not as simplistic as you make it out to be, since the cost of each missile fired is going to be offset by the likelihood that every time a drone attack is thwarted there will be an uptick in foreign sales of Tor missiles and Pantsir systems.
Russia’s Hmeimim air base is in Latakia province. U.S. making it slightly uncomfortable but afraid to poke the bear too hard.
The map shows Latika port above Tartus port. The Russians are being targeted because of the growing possibility that Beijing will gain prominence in both ports giving China “leverage over the eastern Mediterranean, helping it bypass the Suez Canal, and outmatch the US Fifth Fleet.”
excerpt..
China currently has three ports in Haifa and Ashkelon in Israel and Piraeus in Athens, China’s port empire may be threatened given that there is serious pressure from Washington on Israel to relinquish Haifa.”
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in an interview while visiting Jerusalem May 14, “We do not want the Chinese Communist Party to have access to Israeli infrastructure, Israeli communication systems, all of the things that put Israeli citizens at risk.” Later that month, Israel rejected a $1.5 billion contract for China to construct a power plant.
While the United States warned its other Middle Eastern allies against accepting Chinese investment, these evident risks to China’s strategic ties with Israel would force Beijing to focus on countries that are nonaligned with the United States, namely Syria.
“China would therefore eye up investing in ports in Syria’s Latakia and Tartus, thus looking further toward Syria, should it lose influence in Haifa,” Dorsey added. “While China is also looking at Tripoli’s port in Lebanon, Syria would be a central part of Beijing’s leverage over the eastern Mediterranean, helping it bypass the Suez Canal, and outmatch the US Fifth Fleet.”
In October 2018, China provided 800 electrical power generators to Syria’s Latakia port, showing its preparedness to invest there. Last December, Russia announced plans to invest $500 million in Syria’s Tartus port, yet Dorsey argued that this will not hinder China’s involvement, given their close alliance.
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/06/china-invest-syria-assad-reconstruction-us-tension.html#ixzz6QDWeXRvY
The israelis have attacked Syria again, in coordination with the attacks on the Russian forces and increased terrorist attacks.
Videos of Alleged Aftermath of Airstrikes in Syrian Hama Province Emerge on Social Media
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202006241079702893-videos-of-alleged-aftermath-of-airstrikes-in-syrian-hama-province-emerge-on-social-media/
MASSIVE explosions after ‘Israeli jets’ strike army bases in central Syria
https://www.rt.com/news/492763-syria-strikes-explosions-israel/
A while back auslader went to great lengths to claim israel acts under u.s. authority. He also is a fanatical supporter of trump, as is larchmonter445. So here we have america’s colony israel attacking Russia, both indirectly and directly in Syria. This means trump ordered it. He is the pindo commander in chief, and according to auslander, israel gets their orders from america. That defaults to trump ordering these recent attacks. Auslander refers to Russia as “Mother”, but yet by his own oft repeated words promotes the man attacking Russia.
Obviously, something is amiss in the logic…
Vot tak, do not fret, both Auslander and Larchmonter are on your side — as I am — only we are looking in a different direction. Like Tom Welsh asks above, perhaps the Resistance concentrates on making strategic gains against Uncle $cam, not losing focus by fly-swatting against pesky gnat-bytes from Little Izzie?
Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai [edited by NGM]:
“The [U$ regime] under Barack [Obomba Obombast] drafted Caesar’s Law in 2016 to subdue Syria but kept it in the drawer. [The present U$ regime] dusted it off and are now implementing Caesar’s Law. [Thereby] playing straight into the hands of Tehran. Iran is reaping huge benefits, including more robust allies and resistant strongholds as a result [of blowback]. Iran has prepared a series of steps to sell its oil and finance its allies, bypassing [The Currency from Uncle, hence Uncle $cam’s Wiley $cheme] to deplete Iran of its foreign currency reserves.
Dr. NGM
I’m not on israel’s side. Just letting you know…
ps Link to Magnier’s article:
https://ejmagnier.com/2020/06/23/the-us-soft-war-on-iran-and-its-allies-is-turned-against-washington/
“Iran sent a large business delegation to Syria to schedule the supply of primary necessities and goods in a time of sanctions.
Russia also announced – via its vice Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov – that his country rejects the illegal sanctions on Syria, and that Russia will provide President Assad with whatever his country needs.”
Excuse me VotTak, there is no way Trumpettissimo is Commander in Chief. He is just an expendable puppet. QUOTE Frank Zappa musician!! US government is entertainment branch of CIA…
Remember those neurotic illiterates G Bush and Ronald Regan?? The show must go on for 340 million?? extremely gullible & lobotomized Pindo Bimbos..
OK.. Larch & Annoym etc are cool wise guys!! Putin plays chess long term, even if expensive. Patience, kind sir😇🙂
svenro:
I agree fully with you.
President Putin doesn’t play chess only he is versed in judo (I think he got a black belt). Moreover, I believe his IQ must be quite outstanding.
Russia and China are playing their “game” not for a short time only. Both countries think long-term and – what is missing in USA governments – love their country. However, both countries don’t want a war as their “calculation” considers many factors which I think USA doesn’t even think of nor considers in any way.
The USA-heel: it doesn’t consider other cultures and that other countries aren’t always as stupid as USA would like.
Moreover, neither China nor Russia are weak countries as USA has been used to overthrow. The political platform has changed.
Com toda essa moleza o presidente Putin vai deixar a guerra na Síria para o próximo presidente da síria.
With all this ease, President Putin will leave the war in Syria for the next Syrian president.
mod: google translation
you did not put up my comment and for that I am thankful. I know you wont put this up as well but I wanted to thank you for my comments that you have not put up and I did not know how else to do so. my comments were nonsense really and would degrade the blog. they were hypoglycemic comments
that was my last attempt at posting anyway. I am done..getting old and I have diabetes with low blood sugar. its a struggle to keep my levels high enough and I am often struggling to make sense – often hypoglycemic and unaware of it
I criticized the Saker on race but I dont think I did any harm. regardless the Vineyard is a very good blog indeed. I wish you all well. the time I spent here was well spent
all the best to the Vineyard and those who run it
corrigir -O presidente Putin vai deixar a guerra da Síria para o próximo presidente da Russia.
Heh…If there’s a next president of Syria, that’s a good thing.
Trump says US will ‘probably’ relocate some troops from Germany to Poland as ‘signal’ to Russia
https://www.rt.com/news/492848-trump-us-troops-relocate-poland-russia/
“Warsaw “will be paying for the sending of some additional troops, we’ll probably be sending them from Germany to Poland,” Trump said on Wednesday.
Earlier this month, he confirmed that the US will be removing up to 9,500 troops from its bases in Germany, leaving 25,000 or so in place.”
How nice of the trump zio-quisling to place more troops in poland to more directly threaten Russia.
Well, if that is the case then I would strongly advise the Germans to keep those bases at a high level of serviceability.
After all, if a shooting war really does start between Russia and NATO then the first thing those US troops are going to do is to beat a very hasty retreat from Poland before they are overrun by the Russians and forced to surrender.
And after a hard slog in reverse-gear it would be nice for the GIs to know that they will have a warm bed for at least one night.