Mubarak just addressed the Egyptian nation. He promised not to run in the next election, but he wants to rule through the transition period. Bottom line – the USraelian Empire is resolutely refusing to let go of Egypt.
Mubarak also said “I will die on the soil of Egypt”; translation: I am not following Ben Ali to Saudi Arabia.
Mubarak appeared to be as out of touch with reality as the Shah was in Tehran.
Sadly, I believe that this only leaves the option of a violent overthrow.
Your opinion? Any option left to avoid a bloodbath? A military coup maybe?
I bet Mabarak has thought of Nuri al Saïd more than once today.
This, as far as I can tell, the imperial plan.
Plan a) wear the protesters down, wait them out sow division among them and when they are weak, the governmnet can resume power. Mubarak, himself probably can’t survive, but maybe Suleiman can be the next president.
plan b) If the empire can’t place any of their choices on the thrown, then they will try to drag this out as long as possible, to wreak as much as Egypt as they can, so as to make it ripe for what they do best: a long term destabilization campaign ala Iran. Egypt simply can’t absorb the stress Iran can. It will fall apart. It is a much poorer and weaker country and is in an EXTREMELY vulnerable state during the transition to a new government.
What is the counter strategy of the demonstrators? Not sure, but I think the MB is a lot smarter and more sophisticated than their enemies give them credit for. They need to placate the west (for now.) Currently, they are saying they will not negotiate with anyone in the Cabinet as they are all illegitimate. They only trust the army, upon which they are heaping praise (it isn’t praiseworthy, but the MB has to play the game.) That probably means Egypt’s Chief of Staff, Lt Gen Sami el Anan. I never heard of him before these past few days but I’m reading he has a reputation of being “incorruptible.” (don’t know if that’s true. Hard to get to that level by being honest) Not much about him on the internet, no wikipedia profile.
The MB is looking at Gaza and looking at Lebanon and understand that open power like hamas will result in Egypt under siege. OTOH, power behind the scenes suites Hizbullah very well.
I suspect most other opposition groups are thinking along the same lines.
In other words, they want to split the top brass away from Mubarak and Suleiman. Then they want to put a figure acceptable to the west in front. Beghind the scenes, the will use the new openness to organize and hopefully run for the next election.
The more stable Egypt becomes, the bolder it can be with its opposition to the west. But they have to keep the empire at bay somehow while they organize.
That’s my take.
What exactly do you want? Anarchy and chaos? Mubarak is leaving…and now the Egyptian people will have a chance to elect a new leader after 3 decades. This is a good thing.
Or maybe you would prefer a violent overthrow that results in mass executions, Sharia Law, and tented women. Let the momentum from this Democratic victory build otherwise chaotic forces might take it away. I hope that all parties will sit down for a discussion about what to do next.
A couple of days ago I said,
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=4046811478707691837&postID=6431796965768045711
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So I predict that either
1) Mubarak will weather the storm; or
2) The regime will weather the storm without Mubarak; a military strongman will emerge — note that Egypt is basically a martial law state and has been for decades; or
3) A pro-American-Israeli regime will emerge as the continuation of this one — perhaps headed by our favorite gasbag, Baradei. I suspect that the MB, looking at all the parameters, expects this option to occur in the short term, while preparing for the next round of struggle.
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It looks like we’ll get a combo of 1) and 2). If that happens, then the revolution has utterly failed. The regime will recalibrate to make sure this does not happen again, at least not for another generation.
3) might have been a compromise — and not a total loss for the movement — but it is too risky for the Empire.
So the Empire wins the current round, a bit bloodied, but still on top…
… Unless a critical mass of the protesters takes this to the next level: revolutionary sacrifice and struggle. It’s gonna take a lot more than color- or fragrance-colored street protests [who invented that jasmine title anyway] to dismantle this juggernaut.
Peace
Uncallable, still, maybe more than ever. Racist cliches aside, CH makes a point worth considering. But then the Pahlavis might have lasted to this day, had that his cautious line of reasoning prevailed in Iran in ’79…
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What exactly do you want? Anarchy and chaos? Mubarak is leaving…
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The point is not a man; the point is a regime. Changing the face at the top is no change at all.
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and now the Egyptian people will have a chance to elect a new leader after 3 decades. This is a good thing.
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The regime is a totalitarian military state, where elections have no meaning. “Elections” simply means that the Mubarak regime will choose his successor and all else will be business as usual.
Omar Sulayman the Torturer may in fact be worse than Mubarak.
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Or maybe you would prefer a violent overthrow
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might be unavoidable if the regime is to be dismantled. If a tyrannical dictatorship will not go away peacefully, then other options cannot be ruled out.
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that results in mass executions,
Sharia Law, and tented women
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FUD: Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt
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Let the momentum from this Democratic victory
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It is _not_ a democratic victory, not yet anyway. Defeat is being snatched out of the jaws of victory. If Mubarak gets aways with this it will be at least a short-term Imperial victory.
Peace
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/163052.html