Just as it had done with the KLA before the US/NATO war on Serbia, the USA is about to take the local terrorist group, in this case the Mujahideen-e Khalq, off its official terror list. That makes sense politically and it is legally necessary to make it easier to fund, train and otherwise assist it: US assistance to various terrorist groups worldwide is usually provided only covertly which, of course, complicates its delivery.
Besides, the overnight re-branding of the local terrorist groups into “freedom fighters” is the normal procedure before any overt military aggression against another country. Hence the following statement by Dana Rohrabacher:
“The MEK are Iranians who desire a secular, peaceful, and democratic government.”
Yet another “indicator and warning” that an attack on Iran is in the making. The Imperial propaganda machine (“Innocence of Muslims”, re-branding of Mujahideen-e Khalq) is now in full swing and the public opinion carefully “massaged” in preparation for a US assault on Iran.
The Saker
PS: a fitting tribute to the US regime
It had to be done else the zionist regime is a terrorist supporter. The zionists have been arming and training these terrorist, as well setting targets for them. The fact that MEK has targeted and killed Americans is simply an inconvenient fact. That people in Washington have actively lobbied for a the benefit of a terrorist group will become academic.
Saker,
Peace…I am a fan of your website and this is my very first comment even though I have been reading for over a year. I note your persistence that Iran will be attacked. Whilst I think that a showdown is in fact going to happen I am wanting to ask your opinion on something: do you not believe Irans statements that should the zionist entity
attack that it could spell the Zionist regime destruction? I strongly feel that this can’t be just rhetoric, after all Iran
is not like Arab countries (with bark and no bite). From experience neither Iran nor HizbAllah are used to making
unsubstantiated statements – as his eminence the Sayyed has said ” the Zionist entity is weaker than the
spiders web’ – even with all it’s unwaivering support from it’s western slave nations, how long can this evil
entity survive with the tens of thousands of missiles that
will rain down upon them in response to their folly? I
don’t think we are yet at ww3 gates…so assuming you’re
correct (and everything is certainly pointing that way), do
you really think Irans response will not be as crushing as
they say? I do…but would very much value your view. Peace. Tarek
@Dear Tarek: peace to you too. thanks for your comment.
Ok, I do not think that the USA (and Israel) can “win” against Iran. I can point you to an old article of mine which addressed this issue: http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2007/07/irans-asymmetrical-response-options.html . While old, it was written 5 years ago, most of its assumptions still hold. I updated it here recently: http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2012/01/iran-in-crosshair-again.html . Bottom line again: no US ‘victory’ possible.
Now I have heard both Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and various Iranian officials say that an attack on Iran would spell the end of the Zionist regime. I think that if by that they mean that this will accelerate a process which will eventually result in the end of the Zionist experiment in Palestine, they are correct. But I don’t see Tel Aviv or Jerusalem turning into 1945 Berlin as it was over-run by Soviet forces with this time Iranian and Hezbollah freeing Palestine by military force.
Yes, the Zionist entity IS really weak and rotting, no doubt about that in my mind at all, but the way to “get it” is to let it destroy itself by killing the host upon which is parasitically feeds (the USA) and by eventually de-legitimizing itself in the eyes of the world and, eventually, most of its citizens. A process similar to what happened in Apartheid South Africa.
Israel today only exists due to the high protection of the USA, the Saudis, the Turks and all the other regional imperial puppets in the region. A war with Iran will most definitely represent a huge crisis for all these puppets and, therefore and eventually, a risk for Israel who is risking to loose the network of corrupt regimes which de-facto support it.
Furthermore, the US and EU economies are in a slow-motion collapse, which will make their unconditional support for Israel difficult to sustain. Again, a war with Iran will accelerate these processes.
As for Iranian and Hezbollah missiles, what they can do is bring home to the degenerate and hedonistic Israelis the fact that it is most unpleasant to fear for your life. Israelis are fundamentally cowards, we have seen that in 2006, and they will not fare well under a rain of missiles.
Finally a war with Iran will end up shattering the Israeli’s racist delusion about their supremacy.
But what Iranian or Hezbollah missile will not due is destroy the Israeli military, air force or any other instrument of violence. If the Americans love to delude themselves that wars can be won in the air, the Iranians and Hezbollah should be careful not to delude themselves with the idea that missiles can win wars, because they cannot.
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah did mention possible Resistance attacks INSIDE Israel. Yes, I think that they can, and will, do it. What Nasrallah is hinting at here is, I think, diversionary operations. Like Hebrew-speaking Hezbollah special forces dressed in IDF uniforms attacking key targets inside Israel. But the goal will be to spread chaos and panic and to freak the Israelis out of their current delusion of impunity. I promise you that as soon as Hezbollah strikes somewhere where they are least expected, the Israelis will literally shit themselves and go paranoid, shooting each other, jumping at every shade, barricading themselves in bunkers, etc. But these special operations will not aim at holding land or “freeing Palestine”. Not yet. But the day will come, soon God willing!
Does that answer your question?
Cheers!
The Saker
@Tarek: one more thing. I completely agree with you when you write :Iran
is not like Arab countries (with bark and no bite)“. You are right, Iran and Hezbollah do not do much barking and their bite is far more dangerous than the one of any Arab country. I would not at all discount that I might be totally missing. I have been out of the business of military analysis for almost 20 years now, and I have no access to any special or classified sources of information. The Iranians and Hezbollah are extremely smart and they are lead by truly exceptional leaders. They might very well have come up with something which will surprise everybody. Something like when Hezbollah hit the Israeli Sa’ar 5-class corvette and almost sunk in right on national live TV or when Hezbollah intercepted the Israeli drones video feed the day Hariri was killed, or when Hezbollah ambushed the Israeli heliborne commandos in 1997. Hezbollah as a long record of totally out-witting the Israelis and the Iranians are also known to be very smart operators. I can tell you that as a former military analyst in charge of operational level (army corps) planning: I would not want to have to develop plans against either Iran or Hezbollah. They are both very skilled at not presenting any lucrative targets and they are both very skilled at doing the unexpected.
So I do not at all discount the possibility of a “big surprise” once the attack begins.
But the most likely scenario is this: the USA/Israel will attack, declare the mission a fantastic success at each daily briefing for about a week to ten days, and then the “bad news” (for them) will start coming in one by one, day after day.
No wonder the US military is so oppose to this war…
My 2cts.
Dear Saker,
Thanks for an exceptional analysis as usual. Yes, I did read your comprehensive analysis on Irans asymmetrical options and I believe it was very accurate – I agree with your point about Iran shutting down the strait of Hormuz but part of me would like to think that Iran can control the strait of Hormuz and maintain full supremacy In it without shutting it down – Yes you have certainly
answered my question and I’m very grateful. Let’s hope that the surprises in store for the zionists are well beyond what the 2006 war had in store for them – after all the Sayedd also did promise that. I’m also hopeful that Iran has more than we know in the way of arsenal. Thanks for this and for all your insightful analysis. It’s a pleasure to get your valued insight. Peace to you – Tarek
Anonymous I to Tarek,
You, Tarek, wished for:
“Let’s hope that the surprises in store for the zionists are well beyond what the 2006 war had in store for them – after all the Sayedd also did promise that. I’m also hopeful that Iran has more than we know in the way of arsenal.”
Your wish cannot be fulfilled unless a massive war with massive civilian casualties on both sides takes place.
Think you need to be careful what you wish for.
…am just now reminded of the story of “Runs With Hatchet”, the story of the Native American that wished he could see the USofA collapse. He gets reincarnated as a Wall Street Floor Trader. :)
Be careful what you wish for, you might find yourself someday in kibbutz. :)
Dear anonymous – peace to you..Understand your point – you see if you believe that this war is going to happen sooner or later as I do, then the hope is that the ‘attacked side’ should have the necessary means to humiliate their attacker. As for being in a kibbutz, that would only ever be in the scenario that I was part of an invading force to liberate the holy land, God Willing. :) of course the ideal alternative is no war but as long as there is a cancerous entity in the region, we know that war is assured. Iran has been preparing for this day since 1979 with the knowledge that this war is unavoidable .. Peace – Tarek.
The tragedy is that Russia went back on its contract to sell the S300 anti aircraft system to Iran. I believe the contract had been signed but they broke it anyway presumably as part of the reset when Obama came in and in return for the West abandoning its attempt to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO.
Had the S300 deal gone ahead there might have been a chance that Iran would have been able to shoot down some US aircraft in the event of an attack on Iran. That might have really freaked the USraelians out.
The Putin regime of course is not motivated by any sense of altruism or anti imperialist principles. Putin only cares about Western foreign policy in so far as it affects Russia and if Muslims or the anti imperialist left put any faith in Vladimir Vladimirovich to protect us we are going to be sadly disappointed and will only have ourselves to blame.
On the question of Hizbollah raining down missiles on Israel in response to an attack on Iran it didn’t respond to the attack on Gaza at the end of 2008. If Hizbollah goes to war with Israel on behalf of Iran the Zionists will devastate Lebanese civilian infrastructure in their usual criminal manner and God knows how many Lebanese will be killed. The danger is this will be a disaster for Hizbollah politically because many Sunni and Christian Lebanese will be outraged at Hizbollah provoking the Israelis on behalf of a foreign country like Iran.
I believe Hizbollah has already lost popularity in some quarters because of its (doubtless reluctant) support for Assad in Syria.
@Robert:The tragedy is that Russia went back on its contract to sell the S300 anti aircraft system to Iran (..) Had the S300 deal gone ahead there might have been a chance that Iran would have been able to shoot down some US aircraft in the event of an attack on Iran. That might have really freaked the USraelians out.
Well, I don’t think that this is a tragedy. Its a stab in the back, a HUGE and disgraceful political mistake for Russia, and it makes things harder on Iran, no doubt. But one weapon system, no matter how good, does not tip the balance. If you look at Russia’s air defense systems you will see that the S-300 is only one segment of a multi-layered air defense system. Just a few S-300 battalions alone would not be show-stopper. True, Iran also has some excellent 9K330 Tor (also a very good system), but all in all Iran’s air defenses are poor and no match for what the USA can trow at them. Finally, the S-300 is getting pretty old, and the USA knows everything to know about it. Ditto for Israel. From the Russian point of view these systems are already considered dated. Bottom line – I agree that Russia’s refusal to deliver these systems is really very bad, but I would not call it a tragedy.
And the Iranians have plenty of other means to freak out the USraelians. This is why this war has been delayed by FIVE YEARS already: because this time the US Empire is really afraid of what might happen. Iran ain’t Grenada :-)
Muslims or the anti imperialist left put any faith in Vladimir Vladimirovich to protect us we are going to be sadly disappointed and will only have ourselves to blame.
Absolutely true.
If Hizbollah goes to war with Israel on behalf of Iran the Zionists will devastate Lebanese civilian infrastructure in their usual criminal manner and God knows how many Lebanese will be killed
Yes, we can count on the “only democracy in the Middle-East” to do just that
The danger is this will be a disaster for Hizbollah politically because many Sunni and Christian Lebanese will be outraged at Hizbollah provoking the Israelis on behalf of a foreign country like Iran.
But see, an attack on Iran IS ALREADY an attack on Hezbollah too. It is wrong to view Hezbollah as a puppet for Iran, but it is true that these two are extremely close allies and one must come to the aid of the other. For Hezbollah to see Iran attacked and do nothing is absolutely unthinkable and it will not happen regardless of any public opinion inside or outside Lebanon.
I believe Hizbollah has already lost popularity in some quarters because of its (doubtless reluctant) support for Assad in Syria
That is possible. But I believe that time will show that they did the right thing (however reluctantly).
Cheers!
Here is what Kevin Barrett has to say about Netanyahu’s motives:
http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=57032
“Netanyahu needs the 9/11-triggered 100-years-war on Islam to continue for the very good reason that if it does not, the State of Emergency still in place in the US will be lifted, and Americans, unencumbered by the National Security restrictions of wartime, will quickly learn what really happened on September 11th, 2001. That possibility poses a very real existential threat to Israel – and to Netanyahu.
“I think Netanyahu has a very good reason to prefer war with Iran, despite all its risks, to peace. I think he does know what he’s doing.
“As Alan Sabrosky, former Director of Strategic Studies at the US Army War College, told Press TV: ‘I have had long conversations over the past two weeks with contacts at the Army War College, at the Headquarters Marine Corps, and I have made it absolutely clear in both cases that it is 100 percent certain that 9/11 was a Mossad operation. Period. If Americans ever know that Israel did this, they are going to scrub them off the earth.‘
“And even if Israel were ‘scrubbed off the earth’ peacefully through a one-state solution, Netanyahu would certainly hang for his role in the 9/11 attacks.”
I am not sure what I think about that. Even if 9/11 was a Mossad operation, they could not have done this without a lot of inside help in the U.S. Also, I don’t see Americans ever scrubbing Israel off the face of the earth, no matter what. Netanyahu, maybe. Israel, never.
Finally, the State of Emergency will never, ever be lifted, until and unless the U.S. regime itself collapses. The State of Emergency is all that holds the place together right now.
Since it feels so much like 1914 again, I have been re-reading Oswald Spengler’s Decline of the West for the first time in many years.
For those who haven’t read Spengler, he came up with an organic model of civilization, in which he postulated that each civilization has a more-or-less 1000 year life cycle of development. He postulates an 800-year period for the development and maturity of the “Culture” phase, followed by a 200 to 250 year phase in which the “Culture” petrifies into a megalopolitan “Civilization” (Alexander to Caesar Augustus in the Classical world, and Napoleon through the present day and beyond in the West).
A brief summary of the book is contained in this 6 part lecture by John David Ebert:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVa-uQwuaDk&feature=relmfu (part 1)
Ebert goes through the book chapter-by-chapter, starting here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yzwfs3DjSJg&feature=relmfu
In Spengler’s model, the West started at about the time of the Great Schism (ca. 1000 A.D.). The transition to Civilization and World Empire began with Napoleon and continues today.
I think that the manipulations of Israel in America are very analogous to the manipulations of King Jugurtha in the late Roman Republic:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jugurtha
Basically, Jugurtha took advantage of the decay and breakdown of the Roman Republic, in much the same way as Netanyahu is doing in the U.S. today. The parallels are eerie. You can think of John and Robert Kennedy (both assassinated) to the Gracchi brothers in Rome (also both assassinated). History may never repeat, but it often rhymes.
Spengler also considers Russia to be the culture of the future, as yet unborn. So, he does leave some hope for humanity, in the long, long run.
Hey Saker,
LOL!! now this is hilarious….now Hamas has become computer geeks:
What your thoughts on this?
On its Sept. 25 post, which has since been deleted from PasteBin, the group said it would attack for eight hours daily starting at 2:30 PM Greenwich Mean Time (10:30 ET) and would continue until a recent YouTube video mocking Islam was removed from the Internet.
The group, which appears to be connected with an armed wing of Hamas, according to a report released last week by intelligence gathering network Flashpoint Partners, invited “all cyberspace workers” to join and claimed that the attacks will expand to eventually include “other evil countries like Israel, France and the United Kingdom.”
Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/2012/09/26/wells-fargo-website-hit-by-access-issues-amid-cyber-threats/#ixzz27c9O7UuF
@Michael:Spengler also considers Russia to be the culture of the future, as yet unborn. So, he does leave some hope for humanity, in the long, long run.
Over the past 20 years or so the number of Muskovites who attend the Paskhal service has consistently been measured by the Moscow police at around 1%. I personally cannot imagine that Russia could undergo a real revival as long as this figures remains that low. On the good side, I do see a post-Soviet generation coming of age, some of which has a great potential. Solzhenitsyn thought that it would take Russia several centuries to overcome the effects of the Soviet period. I guess time will show.
@anonymous: Hamas has become computer geeks
Funny idea, but it does not fit the “Izz ad-din Al Qassam” profile. My guess is somebody is just using that name.
My 2cts
Slightly off topis but In his Speanch at the UNSC, Ahmadinejad said;
“The current abysmal situations of the world are due mainly to the wrong leadership of the world who have entrusted themselves to the devil,”
I wonder if he was alluding to the same thing you do, Saker.
@Saker: ” Solzhenitsyn thought that it would take Russia several centuries to overcome the effects of the Soviet period. I guess time will show.”
Spengler himself thought that the Springtime of the Russian culture would only become evident sometime in the 22nd century. As I said, this is the LONG haul we are talking about! We will all be pushing up daisies long before then.
Meanwhile, we must navigate the barren landscape of an ossifying megalopolitan civilization as best we can.
@Lysander: I wonder if he was alluding to the same thing you do, Saker.
I think that all those who view what is going on through the eyes of spirituality eventually come to this conclusion. Ayatollah Khomeini new exactly what he meant when he spoke of the Great/Other/Small Satan(s) in reference to the leading regimes of the planet.
@Michael: Meanwhile, we must navigate the barren landscape of an ossifying megalopolitan civilization as best we can.
Yes, and it might be that salvation can now only be found in the individual soul of humans and not in countries, nations or cultures
The latest from FARS:
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/30/iranian-news-agency-claims-onion-report-it-ran-by-mistake-is-essentially-true/
You have blasted FARS for their delusional reporting before, but can you believe something like this?
FARS is not helping their country with this kind of nonsense.
@Michael: yes, FARS does need a major clean-up. My sense is that the folks at this agency are total amateurs with no knowledge of the West at all…