From the reports I hear on al-Jazeera it appears that Lebanon is supporting the idea of a UN-imposed and, obviously and inevitably, US/NATO enforced no-fly zone over Libya. And by “Lebanon” what is meant is the Hezbollah supported, if not lead, Lebanese government.
As I already wrote, a no-fly zone over Libya is a terrible idea which, if implemented, will create an open-ended Imperial military intervention which nobody will control besides the USraelian leaders.
And please don’t tell me about a ‘limited mandate’ or any such stuff. I have seen with my own eyes, day by day, the reality of what inevitably happens with such “limited mandates”:
First, a limited mission is authorized. Then the reality on the ground creates what is called “mission creep” in which the UN authorized military forces assume more and more roles (whether deliberately or not). Finally, in order to safe face and to avoid embarrassing the political leaders, the mandate is adapted through what I call a process of “mandate-creep” and the new roles of the force receive full legitimacy. Then, go back to step one above and start again. That is exactly what happened in Bosnia.
How the Hezbollah leadership seems to not understand this is totally beyond me. I fully and totally understand Hezbollah’s loathing of Gaddafi and, frankly, I share it. But booting out Gaddafi only to turn over Libya to the USraelian Empire is a strategic miscalculation of the first order.
My last hope now is that Hezbollah has some rock-solid information that Russia (or China) will, if needed, veto such a resolution. But even if they do have such information, they should not trust Russia (or China) and neither should Hezbollah engage in such cynical calculations.
That Hezbollah got it wrong on Bosnia I can understand. The political pressure was definitely too great. That Hezbollah does not have the courage to take a stand against the crazed Chechen Wahabis, I deplore very much but again, this is a Muslim vs non-Muslim situation in which the political pressures are huge. But in the case of Libya, this is a situation of Sunnis versus secularists in which the Sunnis are being used by the USA (just as was the case in Bosnia and Chechnia). But this time, the outcome of the struggle will directly affect the entire Arab world. Just visualize a Libyan version of Camp Bondsteel.
I say that with great regret, but if the Hezbollah ministers did, indeed, approve the concept of a no-fly zone over Libya, then I am tremendously disappointed with them.
The Saker
Petty-bourgeois nationalists like Hezbollah are never consistently against imperialism. Their support for a no-fly zone over Libya is a case in point.
Here’s a good article about Libya I’d like to recommend:
http://socialistworker.org/2011/03/14/facts-about-racism-in-libya
I’m also opposed to any foreign intervention, but here is what HA is likely thinking.
1) An MQ victory will be a bloodbath and preventing it is the right hing to do even if it means yielding some influence to the US/NATO.
2) The US NATO will not really be in an enviable position in Libya. Yes, they can pick the winner, but they can no longer appoint a Mubarak clone over Libya. To do that, they would need troops on the ground and would need to fight (yet another!!) guerrilla war. My guess, and probably HA’s, is that they will not. However…
If HA is really that cynical then they probably see the US being bogged down in (yet another!!) place as advantageous. The Libyans fought a guerrilla war against Fascist Italy for two decades. This is not a pushover.
In short, the US will not be able to easily dictate the outcome in Libya.
On a separate but related note, what would you say about Egyptian intervention?
1) IS Egypt strong enough to change the outcome?
2) Can it be done at a reasonable cost?
Saker,
I have not followed the decision making process in Lebanon which arrived at this decision to support the No-Fly Zone, because we are in a care-taker Govrt. right now in Lebanon under Saad Hariri. We still do not have any Govrt meetings at all, so Hezbollah would not be party to that decision I believe…?
I could be wrong though…?
However, I think we are not going to see any no-fly decisions made anytime soon, because I believe we are already in full counter-insurgency mode in Libya, Yemen and Bahrain…The USRAELI Empire in my view has heard enough desperation on the part of KSA and other GCC countries…, directly and openly accusing IRAN of deliberately meddling in the GCC…that DOD is in the process of implementing full counter-revolutions in Yemen, Bahrain, Libya…and if Qaddafi is able to win…we will see further bloodshed in Bahrain, Yemen and anywhere else Revolutionaries might spring-up….
The Humanitarian toll in Libya is going to be terrible…and public pressure in the West is mounting daily….Hence the Charades in the UN.
Joe
@ProletarianRenegade: Hezbollah ‘petty bourgeois nationalists’?! lOL!
I think that you are totally misunderstanding Hezbollah and its socio-cultural roots. The resistance is a popular national liberation movement largely formed of “working masses” (to use a leftie lexicon). They are, in fact, far more “popular” than all the so-called ‘progressive’or Marxists movements in Lebanon (such as the PSP, PFLP, DFLP, PFLP-GC, LCP, WL, Baath etc.).
Besides, European 19th century categories hardly apply to 21 century Lebanon anyway…
@Joe:“I have not followed the decision making process in Lebanon which arrived at this decision to support the No-Fly Zone, because we are in a care-taker Govrt. right now in Lebanon under Saad Hariri. We still do not have any Govrt meetings at all, so Hezbollah would not be party to that decision I believe…?
I could be wrong though…?”
Joe, if you are correct I would be IMMENSELY reassured. Could you please find out the following:
a) did Hezbollah ministers participate in the decision to support a no-fly zone?
b) what is Hezbollah’s position on this issue (whether the ministers did or did not participate in this decision)?
I really would appreciate it if you could get to the bottom of this question. Can please you make a couple of phone calls and find out?
This topic really means a lot to me!
Thanks,
The Saker
@VINEYARDSAKER:
That Hezbollah got it wrong on Bosnia I can understand. The political pressure was definitely too great. That Hezbollah does not have the courage to take a stand against the crazed Chechen Wahabis, I deplore very much but again, this is a Muslim vs non-Muslim situation in which the political pressures are huge.
That is exactly the problem with the mainstream Islamic community who say pick up your sword or gun now and go and fight Jihad and make it as violent and bloody as you can get.
It is part of the Islamic religion to go a fight jihad to help “oppressed” Muslims a concept you do not seem to understand.
Case in Point:
Muslim Youth Leader Tayabb Yunus at ICNA 2000 conference :”Now is the time…to send your child to fight Jihad in Chechyna”
War Child ‘charity’ co- founded by member of Dutch royal family and Soros operative involved in arms lobby for Bosnian muslims in 2001 shuts down Chechen operations
“War Child – the ‘charity’ (whose Dutch branch founder Mabel Wisse Smit,(employed by George Soros), went from being the lover of jailed Bosnian foreign minister Muhammed Sacirbey, to the wife of Prince Friso of Holland,) has announced they ‘have decided to stop all support to their partner organisation in Chechnya …euphemistically saying that they ‘could no longer guarantee the effective and controlled managing of War Child project activities’ .Translation: the money was ‘finding it’s way’ into the hands of terrorists.”
Interesting connection to Libya:
The Bosnian terror supporting network which Mabel and the Open Society Institute promoted also included the American based jailed head of the American Muslim Council Abdulrahman Alamoudi, whose various Bosnian ‘charitable’ initiatives channeled funding to Al Qaeda linked Muhajideen. The now defunct American Muslim Council (which dissapeared at about the same time Alamoudi went to jail ) created the American Task Force for Bosnia. (AMBTF).
http://www.militantislammonitor.org/article/id/2078
In 1997 Saffuri, along with Grover Norquist, one of the most politically-connected Republican lobbyists, founded the Islamic Free Market Institute (often called simply the Islamic Institute) to build Republican support among Muslim Americans. The Institute operates out of the headquarters of Norquist’s Americans for Tax Reform.[2] The start-up money largely comes from Middle Eastern sources. Saffuri’s former boss at the AMC American Muslim Council, Abdul Rahman al-Amoudi, gives at least $35,000. The Safa Trust donates at least $35,000, and the International Institute of Islamic Thought (IIIT) contributes $11,000. Both organizations are part of the SAAR group and are among the organizations that were subject to a March, 2002 raid under the auspices of Operation Green Quest.
The Operation Green Quest raids led to the convictions of two people, including Abdurahman Alamoudi, who worked for the SAAR Foundation. Alamoudi admitted that he plotted with Libya to assassinate the Saudi ruler and was sentenced to 23 years in jail.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khaled_Saffuri
Sorry I forgot to post the link.
Muslim Youth Leader Tayabb Yunus at ICNA 2000 conference :”Now is the time…to send your child to fight Jihad in Chechyna
http://www.militantislammonitor.org/article/id/274
Dear Saker,
As I told you earlier, Hezbollah did not participate in this decision making process. I made some phone calls and got confirmation of that.
The care-taker Govrt. took that decision between the President, the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister, after deliberations with the Arab League…who formulated that decision publicly…
Now, Nabih BERRI is strongly in favor of that decision and has phoned Amr Moussa thanking him for that decision… Historically the SHIA of Lebanon have strong animosity towards Gaddafi because of the Moussa Sadr issue as I told you earlier, plus on humanitarian grounds they arrived at that decision.
Hezbollah has its eyes on Bahrain. The situation there is very explosive and could potentially trigger a much wider conflict.
Best,
Joe
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/africa/news/article_1625989.php/Lebanon-demands-no-fly-zone-for-Libya-at-UN-Security-Council
New York – Lebanon, acting on behalf of the Arab League, said Monday it is drafting with some UN Security Council members a resolution to establish a no-fly zone over Libya to deter attacks on civilians.
But the demand stirred questions about the implementation and which organizations would be responsible for enforcing it. Lebanese UN Ambassador Nawaf Salam admitted the weakness of the demand while other council members said there was a precedent in the 1990s in the Balkans.
Salam told reporters following a closed-door session of the 15-nation council that he had demanded the body adopt the resolution ‘as soon as possible.’
‘We hope today that the Security Council will act swiftly and we will be pushing hard for the council to act on it as soon as possible,’ Salam said.
@Joe: Dear Joe, thanks A LOT for this info which, when I read it, made me let out a huge sigh of relief! Still, my concerns are not fully appeased and I would ask you to please keep an eye on any Hezbollah statement about the decision of the Arab League or the possible UN resolution on a no-fly zone. I will only fully breathe easily if Hezbollah clearly and unambiguously declares it opposition to any foreign interference.
That Hezbollah intensely dislikes MG is totally natural. There is little doubt that this secularist SOB did kidnap and murder Moussa Sadr. To me all those old style Arab nationalists are the rotten fruits of one poisonous tree which, I hope will be soon cut once and for all.
As for Bahrain and, to a lesser degree, Yemen – yes, the risks are huge as these conflicts are pitting Iran and the KSA against each other and we already discussed what this could lead to.
The KSA is really the core of all that evil constellation of US and Israeli puppets in the Middle-East. If not for these Wahabis SOBs, Bahrain probably could get rid of its regime, and ditto for Yemen. Except that we know that the KSA will intervene on behalf of the CIA and its Israeli puppeteers.
This is why a Hezbollah like movement is so important. Hezbollah had the genius to legally and peacefully give the boot to the pro-Israeli regime of Lebanon without giving anybody a pretext for intervention. They skillfully used everybody for that: the Syrians, the dumb Yanks under Reagan, the French and even more so, the idiotically arrogant Israelis who did more than anybody else for the popularity of Hezbollah.
May God help the Shia in Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi Arabia get rid of their oppressors!
Thanks Saker,
I couldn’t have said it better.
I fully agree with you, lock stock and barrel…
Best,
Joe
I think that you are totally misunderstanding Hezbollah and its socio-cultural roots. The resistance is a popular national liberation movement largely formed of “working masses” (to use a leftie lexicon). They are, in fact, far more “popular” than all the so-called ‘progressive’or Marxists movements in Lebanon (such as the PSP, PFLP, DFLP, PFLP-GC, LCP, WL, Baath etc.).
All politics are class politics. Labelling some force as petty-bourgeois, bourgeois, proletarian, etc. is supposed to be descriptive, not perjorative. The class background of a group’s members is important, but not decisive; most voters of the Democratic and Republican parties are workers and not terribly wealthy middle class people, yet neither the policies those parties pursue benefit big business at their expense. Mao took over China with a peasant army and popular support, but the peasantry and the people didn’t rule China post-1949.
Point being, popularity doesn’t have anything to do with the class politics of Hezbollah. It’s important to understand any movement’s material basis in order to see the limits and contradictions within it. Most of the groups you named were also petty-bourgeois nationalist groups although the only one I could really get into would be Iraq’s Ba’ath and DFLP/PFLP.
Besides, European 19th century categories hardly apply to 21 century Lebanon anyway…
So you think there there is no such thing as capital and labor in Lebanon? Big business doesn’t have a decisive voice in the Lebanon’s politics? Do tell.