I have been thinking a lot about the recent events in Russia, the elections to the Duma, the short-lived “White Revolution”, then the cameras in all voting locations, and finally Putin’s triumphant election. Something just kept creping back to my (admittedly paranoid) mind, over and over again. I was pushing it down, but it used the “what if?” method to harass my imagination which is by nature, training and trade always inclined to assume that there are always at least two, if not more, levels to each important event. Tonight I decided to share with you that hypothesis. And the very first thing I will do is that I will begin to unambiguously admit that this hypothesis has absolutely zero support in established facts. Zero. And yet – what do you think about this:
What if the Kremlin had quietly orchestrated this entire “White Revolution”?
My suspicions began when I heard on Russian TV about a survey which the entire Western corporate Ziomedia ignored: the “White Revolution” resulted in a huge popularity boost for Putin. Yes, that’s right. All the allegations of vote-rigging and corruption and all the talk about canceling the elections resulted in an immediate backlash for support for, and circling the wagons around, Putin.
Think about it: Russian have seen the results of a “color coded revolution” right next door, in the Ukraine, where most Russians have friends and families. For a full decade, while Russia was sky-rocketing up back to superpower status, the Ukraine, led by the “pro-US nationalists” (a ridiculous concept to begin with), was in free fall. Day after day after day, Russian TV stations were covering the economic collapse of their neighbor, the political chaos, the mind-blowing corruption. Hundred of thousands of Ukrainian jumped into trains to come and work in Russia, while Russians spend their summer holidays in Crimea. Bottom line: for a full decade Russian really had “front row seats” to observe the calamity which the Orange Revolution was for the Ukraine.
And it is against this background that suddenly, almost spontaneously, a weird coalition of fringe parties got together and decided to try another color-coded revolution, but this time in Russia?
Does that not strike you as absurd?
And the result? Hundred of thousands of terrified Russian immediately filled the streets with pro-Kremlin demonstrations saying in unison “not here! over our dead bodies” No pasaran!”.
What if Putin who, after all, got elected the first time around thanks to the “Chechen threat” decided that this time a “color-coded Revolution threat” would do the trick again?
What could better mobilize the Russian masses than a simple choice: “you vote for me or the country will go to hell”?
I am not saying that there is any evidence that the Kremlin is behind a “false flag color-coded revolution” not any more than I would say that the Kremlin was behind the 1999 bombings of the apartment buildings in Russia (attributed to Chechen terrorists). Regardless of who really bombed these apartment buildings – the Chechen-Wahabi threat to Russia and the entire region was real. And today, the US/Zionist threat is real too. But you got to admit it – either Putin is really very lucky, or his adversaries very dumb, or Putin is very good at scaring the Russian people to vote for him as the sole defender of Russia.
I will conclude by saying this: while there is no evidence that what took place in Russia was a “false flag color-coded revolution”, I have seen no evidence which would refute that hypothesis either. Yes, Golos was financed by the West, and the Western Ziomedia fully endorsed the “stolen elections” canard. But Golos really did not play such a big role in that. As for the Western Ziomedia, it would be willing to report that Putin eats raped babies for breakfast every morning and that he is a reincarnation of Ivan the Terrible. These guys will print anything anti-Russian, no matter how ugly and self-evidently ludicrous it is. If this was, indeed, a “false flag color-coded revolution” then those who organized it would have had no difficulty predicting that the Western Ziomedia would immediately pick up and run with the story.
Occam and his razor say that I am wrong. They might well be right; they mostly are.
But what if?
The Saker
Well, in principle makes sense. But Putin, despite all his popularity, has always been in a very delicate balance that, at any moment, could make his government crash. I think he wouldn’t take the risk sponsoring an opposition movement that could easily get out of control. And specially not in a time when the opposition received a boost morale with the examples of the Arab Spring. Lastly, I also think there would be no need for such a move, considering that Putin could count with 50% of votes even when his popularity hit its historic low last year.
One of the most trusted sources of Russian politics is Israel Shamir. Here is his take on the election;
http://www.israelshamir.net/English/No_Apocalypse.htm
Thank God for Putin, one of only a few world leaders refusing to give in to the US/NATO/Zionist criminal networks.
Do you think the Kremlin/Putin was behind the 99 apartment bombings?
I don’t but I do think there were elements in the Russian intelligence, government, Oligarchs and foreign intelligence behind the attack who want to annex the Caucasus and have the Caspian energy basin under British/US control.
Whether the apartment bombings happened or not all the evidence points to the fact they (Chechens and foreign powers) were planning and preparing for war given all the evidence like training camps in Afghanistan, Turkey and the US and the US hosted Baku meeting in 99.
As for your theory I don’t buy it I think it is more of a problem of a political system created by Yeltsin that had a single power structure which Putin basically replaced with his own people and has failed to created a multi party system or 2 party system like in the US that isn’t controlled by the Kremlin or Britain/US that have finally come to ahead.
@Jack: Do you think the Kremlin/Putin was behind the 99 apartment bombings? No. I don’t. But I would not exclude it either. I do not exclude that some elements inside the Russian security forces could have tried that kind of false flag stuff without Putin being in the loop. There are many factions inside the Russian security forces, and there is a ‘deep state’ pulling the strings behind Putin (heck, they put him in power to begin with). So my position on that issue is that is cautiously agnostic.
I’m also unsure of who and what was behind the apartment bombings.
From my personal experience of Chechen rebels, I will say one thing: many were (and still are) open to the highest bidder (western intelligence agencies, MOSSAD, Saudi Mukhabarat, ISI, rogue FSB or GRU factions, frankly the highest bidder of whatever background).
There are some ideologically committed Wahabbists amongst the current crop of rebels but knowing the mentality of some Chechens, Iwould say that you could easily (for the right price) hire the services of some of these ‘mujahideen’. For some Chechens money has no religion.
Chechens are certainly brave and good fighters but some are eminently buyable. This was General Yermolov’s rather astute observation in the early part of the 19th century. Courage has never been in short supply amongst the Chechens and other North Caucasian mountaineers unlike political vision and principles. The exceptions have been under the Imamates of Shaykh Mansur (an ancestor on my maternal side) and the famous Shamil. In terms of political vision and principles, I would argue that Akhmad Haji Kadyrov certainly had these. I know he switched sides but it was on the basis of genuine principles, a coherent world view if you will. He was motivated by a mixture of traditional Sufi Islam, religious based opposition to Wahabbism and genuine love for his people (wanting them and their children to live without the shadow of constant and pointless war).
I know the Kadyrovs (father and son) get bad press in the West and amongst Russian liberals, but let it be known that during the bespredyel of 1996 – 1999, they were NEVER even remotely connected with kidnapping and slave trading, unlike the thoroughly opportunistic and criminal Yamadayev clan. Said-Magomed Kakiyev is another principled man. He was always anti-Dudayev and fought the separatists from the moment they appeared in the republic.
I’m amazed that Ramzan Kadyrov, Imam Shamil and Shaykh Mansur (my ancestor on my mother’s side) ever managed to create unified and effective armies, as well as bring the general population under centralised control. They did so without using the level of cruelty displayed by Stalin. Prince Bariatinsky also managed this in a humane way. They did so without using the utterly cruel (and ultimately counter-productive) methods of Stalin.
With regards to Putin manufacturing this oppositional wave, I’m afraid I have to disagree with you on this one Saker. Arguably, Carlo has this one spot on.
As to the post-election future, I agree with Israel Shamir’s recent analysis. He argues that Putin needs to fully and finally break the economic power (based on grand larceny) of the oligarchs. So far he had been comprising with them. Shamir is right to say that Putin is actually more of a compromise figure than his detractors (western and Russian) make him out to be. There is a risk that he could compromise further with the oligarchs following this rather confrontational election.
Don’t get me wrong, he played it brilliantly with Berezovsky and Khodorkovsky. Kudos to Vladimir Vladimirovich on dealing with these criminals and their mafia networks. Of course he’s done sterling work with defending Russian sovereignty and international interests against US/NATO/Israeli hegemony. His tactical use of energy politics to divide a Europe (between Old and New) that is cravenly beholden to the diktats of Washington and Tel Aviv is nothing short of brilliant. Of course the general improvement of social and economic conditions throughout Russia, rebuilding my republic from scratch etc – on all this he is to be commended.
However, more crucial work remains. Firstly, diversifying the Russian economy away from over-dependency on oil and natural gas exports. Secondly, equipment modernisation of Russia’s armed forces. The country needs to get back to the cutting edge of aeronautical production and research if it is to be serious, world class power projector. Thirdly, the spread of investment, both government and foreign direct, beyond Moscow and St Petersburg. At the moment these cities are getting too fat and ungrateful for their own good. The middle class opposition to him in these cities made their money under his brand of state capitalism and, now, want to ditch him for a neolliberal like Prokhorov. That’s some serious ingratitude.
Lastly, to seriously tackle the instability in the North Caucasus. This can be done. The root of dissatisfaction in this region is not a desire for independence but the economic corruption of the local governing elites. The rebels feed on this. A Federal anti corruption campaign in the North Caucasus would gain the support of the local population as well the support of the rest of the Federation. Don’t let provocateurs like Navalny take the lead on this. There used to thriving industry in he North Caucasus in Soviet times. Rebuild this infrastructure.
I’m not arguing to abandon military options when necessary. In fact, it’s not well known but many of the contract soldiers in the Federal forces in the North Caucasus Military District are locals. Khankala military base in Grozny contains hundreds of Chechen servicemen. These are Federals not answerable to Kadyrov. The same for the garrison in Mozdok. I’m happy about this as it puts young Chechen men into disciplined employment, much suited to our national characteristics whilst establishing the writ of the state.
Long term security and stability in the North Caucasus can only be maintained by the twin track of economic/industrial development and strategic military deployment (and use). One without the other will not work in the long run. NATO vultures will try to destroy Russia from this region in spite of their failure in Georgia/South Ossetia in 2008.