by LeDahu for the Saker blog
The US and Russia are now closer to a direct collision between their military forces than at any time since the Cold War. The world anxiously waits to see what the US has on the table, in the way of military options.
A quick tour of the situation as it stands, using OSINT sources, of what has happened over the last couple of days. Given the huge amount of interest & speculation going round social media recently, here are some brief comments and I will try to keep this sitrep, brief and to the point.
First some suggested scenarios – (back of an envelope scribble style)
- (Short duration of hours or days)
- Limited strike, volleys of cruise missiles on a number of military installations & bases, (from surface ships & submarines).
- Cruise missile strikes following by airstrikes using various aircraft (from A-10, F-15, F-18, B-52 to B-2).
- (Longer duration –days & weeks) Sustained airstrikes along with limited ground invasion component, probably with heavy armour, from Al-Tanf area.
Scenario 1 is basically a re-run of what happened last year in April, following the Khan Shaykhun alleged chemical attack. Some 72 hours after the initial stirrings in Washington, the element of surprise has gone by now. But it may be still be an option on the table for US, UK & French military planners.
Given the stark warnings issued from the Russian MOD, that retaliatory air strikes by the US in Syria could risk triggering a military confrontation, the worst-case scenario would be if there’s a prolonged massive military action from the US side with Russian casualties.
Navy
- Surface ships known to be in the area around Cyprus:
USS Donald Cook (DDG 75), (port call in Cyprus 7 -9 April)
https://twitter.com/USNavyEurope/status/983332710990086144
‘Aquitaine’, French Navy FREMM multipurpose frigate on Op Chammal
The US Navy denied blogger & media reports of the USS Donald Cook getting harassed by Russian jets off Syria, by calling it “completely bogus.”
Was that wishful thinking on part of some people, another re-run of the Black Sea encounter with ECM pod carrying SU-24s?
While the opposite happened to the French frigate. The ‘Aquitaine’ (D650)
(https://www.defense.gouv.fr/marine/equipements/batiments-de-combat/fregates/fremm/aquitaine-d-650) was reported in French media to have been aggressively buzzed the weekend of 6/7 April, by armed Russian aircraft – (Su-24M attack planes and Su-30MS fighters) – on CAP mission in the eastern Mediterranean.
(In French https://t.co/9d95gmo0tB )
Maybe the moral of the story is not to go too near to Russian bases, while being also near to the USS Donald Cook.
- Other ships of interest in the Med
SNMG 2 group with HMS Duncan as flagship, (accompanied by 1 Spanish & 1 Turkey warships) were in Split, Croatia & left on 9 April.
Recently, the USS J Warner, (SSN-785) a Virginia-class submarine, called into Gibraltar, so it could be in the Med. Likewise, the USS Georgia, Ohio-class (SSGN 729), made a hasty SAR detour off the Spanish coast, to medevac an injured crewman at the end of March. Its subsequent whereabouts was unknown, although today AIS shows it today as being back in Florida. https://twitter.com/salvamentogob/status/978992198715764741
The USS Mount Witney was last in Haifa and the USS New York doing its round near to Sicily, Italy. So no significant changes there this week.
- US ships elsewhere in Europe
Most focus is on the group of US destroyers that are forward deployed from Rota, Spain. Besides the USS Donald Cook, the USS Carney (DDG 64), is still in port in Rota, the USS Ross is in Plymouth, UK and the USS Porter, having just called into Cherbourg, last seen in the Channel, heading eastwards. There isn’t much hurry to sail either down to the Med or the USS Carney eastwards either at the moment.
The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group (HSTCSG) set sail yesterday, a routine regular deployment that has been planned months ago. It will certainly head for the Med, then later go to the Gulf, probably at the beginning of May.
https://twitter.com/USNavy/status/984192120608129024
USS Normandy (CG 60);
and DESRON 28 group of guided-missile destroyers USS Farragut (DDG 99), USS Forrest Sherman (DDG 98), USS Bulkeley (DDG 84), USS Arleigh Burke (DDG 51),
Two other late participants: USS Jason Dunham (DDG 109), and USS The Sullivans (DGG 68).
A German Navy is also part of the group for the first part: the Sachsen-class German frigate FGS Hessen (F 221). It is not known at this stage if Germany will respond similarly to the US.
https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/984395909298622465
Further afield (Red Sea and Gulf of Aden)
Most of the US Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), with the USS Iwo Jima (LHD7) with USMC Harriers onboard, left the Med to go down to Djibouti part of Exercise Alligator Dagger, (which had to be stopped due to several aircraft crashes by 3 April).
The US Navy operates in this region, as part of Task Force 53,
Among this group appears to be the USS Laboon, DDG. It is not known whether they have stayed in the area or sailed back up the Red Sea. There is a good chance that the USS Laboon has, probably along with another French FREMM frigate.
UK –Royal Navy
Other than HMS Duncan, the only other significant news is the possible deployment to eastern Med of an Astute-class nuclear submarine, as initially reported by the Daily Telegraph.
HMS Albion, which had been in the Med, was redeployed with orders to go to the South China Sea, Korea regions, to supplement two other RN warships already there.
Russian Navy
Of the 15 ships currently forward deployed to Tartus, only 2 surface ships are noteworthy, the ‘Admiral Grigorovich’ and the ‘Admiral Essen’. There are probably at least 2 Kilo improved submarines, (not if not more 5 according to rumour control).
This above tweet contains 2 photos, one which is conveniently dated 11 April and the other undated. The tweet states that the Russian Navy contingent in Tartus simply left, due to imminent threat of missile strikes. However, there is one tiny snag to this narrative, the fact that there is a Kilo-class, Project 636.3″Varshavyanka” submarine. So, are we presuming that the Russian high command is ok with leaving behind a new submarine as a potential target, while the Soviet era cargo ships disappear off into the sunset?
The reality is more mundane, most of the ships labelled on the right-hand photo are in fact part of what is known as the “Syrian Express”, shuttling to and fro Tartus – Black Sea ports, so they routinely disappear & reappear. As confirmed by tweet from a Turkish ship spotter & photographer, one of the cargo ships was indeed stuck in the heavy fog, along with 100s of other ships, waiting to transit the Bosphorus. The ‘Ropucha’ class of ships, (‘Tsezar Kunikov’), forms the backbone of the Russian Navy’s part in the ‘Syrian Express’.
The other partial explanation is the fact the Russian Navy had announced a series of exercises, starting on the 11 April, so both the frigates and submarines would have gone to sea anyhow.
Re NOTAM, the Russian Navy regularly issues these for several years, even if they don’t seem to carry out exercises. Sometimes, it can be seen as being a warning of imminent Kalibr missiles launches. The timing of this latest NOTAM does raise suspicions given timing with airline warnings.
The US Navy P-8 aircraft out of Sigonella, Scilly, have been carrying practically non-stop missions for several days, near to the Syrian coast & near to the Russian Navy exercise zone. This is a good indicator that the Russian Navy is at sea and the US Navy is keeping a close watch, especially the two Kilo-class submarines.
Still on duty: after a diversion to south, off Lebanon and Israeli coast, this USNavy Boeing P-8A (168439) departed this morning from NAS Sigonella, Sicily, is making again a surveillance mission off #Syria coast near area where today Russian navy is conducting an exercise pic.twitter.com/qMCCCk3mRx
— ItaMilRadar (@ItaMilRadar) April 12, 2018
Other navies
- China
Interestingly the news that the Chinese Navy, PLA(N) might get sent to Syria if the Russian Navy gets attacks, is doing the rounds of the internet like a wildfire. None of it is actually based on verifiable sources, just hearsay. Except, there is no PLA(N) currently in the Med, nor have any joint exercises been scheduled with the Russian Navy in the Med. The Chinese did, however carry out joint exercises last summer, which was well-known well in advance.
There is a long-standing Chinese Task Group anti-piracy mission, which each group of 3 ships, that operates in the Gulf of Aden or in waters near to Somalia. The 27th and 28th Escort Forces changed over back in December 2017, in the Gulf of Aden. The 28th group is currently there, with the 29th group on its way to take over the duties. The 29th group left China on 5 April.
http://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/2018-04/05/content_7995164.htm
The previous group, the 27th group, were in the Med, much earlier in the year, with port calls to Algiers and Tunisia in January. https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/other/27th-chinese-naval-escort-taskforce-on-courtesy-call-at-port-of-la-goulette/ar-AAuYBax
However, by the end of February, the group visited Cape Town and now have returned to China.
- NATO warships
There is an on-going NATO operation in the Mediterranean, called OP Sea Guardian. Another OP that is in the central part of the Med, but with EU elements as well is OP ‘Sophia’. The status of the participating ships is unknown and for the time being, not considered as probable participants in a Syrian campaign.
In the air
Recently, in addition to the US Navy p-8, NATO E3 Sentry AWACS had been doing racetracks in southern Turkey, on the border with Syria.
https://twitter.com/ItaMilRadar/status/984018977734234112
A flurry of USAF activity was noted yesterday, where several KC-135Rs flew down from the UK Mildenhall base, another from Spain. It was reported that: six A-10Cs, twelve F-16Cs from USAF airbases in Italy, went to Incrilik, Turkey, to take part in OP Inherent Resolve. Note the deployment of the A-10S, these are close ground support aircraft.
While, Russia recently deployed it’s advanced anti-submarine aircraft the IL-38N in Syria.
Many years ago I met Richard Nixon who spoke of 1973 and the fear of Soviet Marines clashing with US Forces during the Yom Kippur War. He knew his international affairs. Since 1973 the US has become a crass quasi-Fascist dump run by a Man Child riddled with Infantile Behaviour Syndrome.
It is clear USA + Israel are a threat to Mankind
Syrian Army Captures British Military Men in Eastern Ghouta. Failed US-Israeli Plot
to Launch Ground Assault on Damascus
https://www.globalresearch.ca/syrian-army-captures-british-military-men-in-eastern-ghouta-failed-us-israeli-plot-to-launch-ground-assault-on-damascus/5635823
Azorka1861
This was reported by a few other websites. It remains to be seen if this is indeed correct.
We also heard the exact same stories after the fall of Allepo, and nothing ever came of it.
Anonymous
Well, not quite. In Aleppo there were, apparently, a heap of surrounded NATO troops. The impression is that a deal was struck and they were permitted top escape.
Hasn’t it been very obvious that Trump doesn’t run things? Trump lost the contest for power to the Deep State over a year ago. I know its fun to make smears at Trump and pretend he’s the problem. But the problem of a Deep State (including the military) being outside of any democratic control is far more serious and shouldn’t be hidden behind name-calling at a figurehead.
“… crass quasi-Fascist dump run by a Man Child riddled with Infantile Behaviour Syndrome.”
Yes, get over it and move on — Bill Clinton (and his presidential 3-some with old Hillary and Monica) have long passed into inglorious history. Boy Bush carried it forward; then the dark horse “Drone-a-lot” followed by Twit-master, Spanky Trump.
Crass — Tick.
Dump — Tick.
Quasi-fascist — Nope! … fully fledged and mature merger of corporate and state.
Run-by — Nope, … neocon mafia paying off the elected representatives with the $dollars that young Bill let loose with his banking deregulation (and continued when the banks ran dry in 2007) with ‘QE’ BS.
Riddled with — at the minimum!
Infantile Behaviour Syndrome — and a dozen other co-morbidities even worse.
It looks like Trump is going to back down but anything could happen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_HUIpEWsFg
US Defense Secretary: No Decision To Strike Syria, Washington Waiting Evidence Of Chemical Attack
Is this like the North Korean episode last year? Where Trump made big brags about sending a carrier to North Korea, but the Pentagon didn’t carry out the order? The above is not the congregation of cruise missile launchers in the eastern Med that one would expect from the way Trump’s been tweating.
The Georgia, the Ohio class SSGN is notable. That’s one subs that the Saker posted about a few days ago. A former SSBN converted over to a SSGN, which is capable of launching a wave of 22 cruise missiles with a total of 154 for multiple salvos. It seemed to be a big part of an attack if Trump thinks he’s about to launch large waves of cruise missiles at Syria, but its in a Spanish port?
Is the Pentagon telling Trump there will be no war, at least not now?
It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at the upcoming meeting between the US and Russian military commanders.
Evidently you didn’t all of the sentence on the USS Georgia, yesterday it was in Florida, so hardly a contender to launch airstrikes at the moment. It left the Mediterranean at end of March.
Any attack upon Syrian soil is unacceptable, even a “symbolic” one. The United States must have it firmly in their mind they are dealing with the Russian Federation and their authority is vested in the Russian Defense Ministry who are legally in Syria defending Russia’s ally. President Putin must not allow one kilometer of Syrian soil to be breached by the swagger of the western death merchants. You don’t let vermin into your neighbor’s house that you are protecting otherwise it will think it can come back in, again and again.
When President Putin says to Trump, “нет”, it is not negotiable, just like he said when answering questions around the return of Crimea to the Ukraine.
As I’ve written on this blog and others, all Russia has to do is tell the U.S. bully that Russian personnel (soldiers, military advisors and humanitarian aid workers) are positioned in critical areas throughout Syria. Any missile attack launched by the U.S. could result “with high probability” (notice that Russia can use those descriptive words too) those people will be killed and that will not be tolerated.
Checkmate by Putin (at least this round)!
“Checkmate by Putin…”
Alas, not so fast! You are jumping to conclusions here. It is very distressing to note that there has been no express and official notice served by Russia as to how an attack on Syria resulting in Russia casualties will be dealt with. The time to do that was 3 days back at the UNSC. Note also that Moscow has had little/weak reaction to the massive build-up by US/Nato close to Russia’s Tartus naval base. There are no indications that the Russians are preparing for a full-blown fight. The other side is. That says a lot. I fear this one may be a checkmate in favor of Trump. If Trump is wise, he will use this sudden advantage to negotiate concessions from Putin without firing a shot. I don’t think by holding his fire Trump is backing down, I fear he may be securing concessions and has wisely decided to hold fire for now.
Russia is morally in the right, I am behind Russia 100%, but I think Russian policy has been a huge failure. They are their own worst enemies by not seeing the plain truth that stares at them right below their noses. A policy based on being reactive 100% times, and proactive 0% times is destined to failure. Clearly, they did not even imagine that the US would suddenly line-up massive firepower against them and had .no plan to deal with it. Evil the Neocons may be, stupid they most certainly are not. You don’t become the world’s Mafia overlord and remain that way for decades after decades if you are stupid.
Russia is playing chess against a chess genius like Bobby Fischer and a top-notch poker-player combined in one package. I pray for Russia but I also fear for it.
“Russia is playing chess against a chess genius like Bobby Fischer and a top-notch poker-player combined in one package.”
LOL. Just who is this person?
I don’t think Trump could spell chess. Definitely does not seem like his type of game. And the US military high command does not exhibit any such Bobby Fischer like skills. The US military suffers in that its high commanders are chosen on PR and political skills, and any military competence is secondary.
One thing we know for sure is that Trump gave up any real command over the military very early in his term. It was publicly stated that he was letting the military too whatever it wanted. I think troop levels in Afghanistan was the immediate issue, but it was quite clear that this is not a administration where the President reviews bombing targets or drone assasination targets for each raid.
At the best, Trump gets briefed on what they are planning, and might be able to decide political, diplomatic or PR approaches to go along with that. I don’t think he controls even that much of policy. At best he controls what he tweets and what the WH spokeslady says. The rest of the government seems fully outside of his control. And the rest of the government certainly does not demonstrate chess grand master plus expert poker player skills.
Personally, I’d love it if blowhard fool with too much money like Trump sat down at a poker table with me when I visit one of his casinos. Trump certainly would not be the math genius type who calculates all the odds. He’d be loud and aggresive at the table, and probably think himself a good bluffer. But those loud aggressive types are easy to get a read on because they give you so much information.
Proactive 0%?! How do you call the secret development of hypersonic weapons and their deployment in 16 years ?
The Russian answer to Trump’s brazen therat: “Get Ready Russis,….” should be answered by any self respected nuclear power in same words as, “Get Ready US, …” , not a mumbojumbo. Kim knows better and he is nothing in power compare to Putin but much higher in character. He’s not a Jew and that make real difference. Democratic Republic of Korean People even do NOT recognized the Jewish Unlawful entity in Palestine. That’s demand respect not a Ruskis double play in ME.
RE: German Navy FGS Hessen
Merkel has stated that Germany will not be taking part in any operation against Syria
Germany is always the interesting one concerning conflict with Russia. There are large segments of powerful industrialists in Germany that would prefer to make a lot of money trading with Russia. Germany has thus seemed to be the likely first European major power to break ranks.
Let’s not forget 1962 and the real background: US nuclear missiles to Turkey. It’s interesting that Kennedy and Kremlin made later a deal where Americans pulled off those missiles and Russians promised to not brag about it. The story was written how “Cuban missile crisis” was Soviet disaster. Reality was very different. But anyway the world avoided nuclear war. 2 years later both Kennedy and Khrushchev were wiped out.
Yeah reality is always different from the govno claimed in the capitalist west. Especially by the zionazi element.
Always.
Oh please. Just end them.
Just get rid of this pestilence that kills wantonly and begs extermination. We eradicate disease don’t we?
I have just had enough of Americans; their arrogance, their braggadocio, their endless murdering.
The world spins and jerks on their every whimper. They have no more right to it – but what we give them!
And “we” is those who can but don’t. Just end it. Please.
Will Russia please stand up to them? Because if Russia won’t then nobody will. Because nobody else can. Ever. And that’s not a world to live in. This murder of people for profit and space that has become a norm, this ‘trait of our times’ – must be stopped. Because they will not stop. They can’t. Murder is the spots on their leopard, the stripes on their tiger, the hump on their camel, the long neck on their giraffe – the purr on their cat. It is what they are – there’s no changing them – so end them.
I am so glad you are so superior and want to instead just kill about 7 billion people in a nuclear holocaust. Obviously a true humanitarian who cares about people.
Comparing the numbers situation looks hopeless for Russia. The hyenas appear just too many for the Russian bear. What a bunch of cowards! Would Russia use tactical nukes as last resource?. How about “planting” some Iskanders in for example Iran that could reach all the way to Syria s/coast? I have absolutly no knowledge about millitary strategy (anybody can see it) just wonder out of concern (for the Russians of course).
Andrei Martyanov replied to my question based on Paul Craig Roberts recent post that Russia can destroy all the aircraft and ships here:
http://www.unz.com/article/the-implications-of-russias-new-weapons/#comment-2285064
Quote:
@Y.L.
Deployment of Kinzhal in Southern Military District (and I speculate–possible redeployment of Mig-31BMs which carry it to Crimea), the same as a possibility (how probable? I don’t know) of SSGNs to carry 3M22 Zircon effectively annuls any NATO naval asset in Med. That is why desperate plea from Macron not to retaliate against French naval assets, as one of the examples of awareness of the consequences. The US bluff effectively has been called and it has everything to do with my earlier piece about 800-pound gorilla which effectively described such a scenario but without (at that time unknown) factor of Kinzhal and Zircon.
http://www.unz.com/article/russia-the-800-pound-gorilla/
So, PCR’s comment has a technical merit. I do disagree, however, with his military-political conclusion about Russia “denying herself a decisive victory”. What happened this morning testifies to the contrary.
End quotation
See also his blog post today here, which you’d find if you follow the above thread:
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2018/04/are-we-there-yet.html
I generally like Mr. PCR, and read him frequently. But he’s become a bit of an annoying broken record on Russia and Putin lately. He’s adopted the attitude that if someone does scream and rant and threaten like a demented MMA fighter then they are being weak. PCR has completely mis-read Russia of late.
PCR regularly has been saying that Russia is mistakenlly trying to friendly to the west. This is a total misread of their actions. Yes, Russia has offered diplomacy as an alternative to war. In PCR’s mind this makes them fools. But, Russia knows the situation shifts to their advantage the longer they can put off a war. If there is no war, the over time the combination of Russia and China becomes far more powerful than the declining ‘west’.
Putin is not being the fool that PCR claims he is. Putin is being the smart, calculating strategist that we already know him to be. If the start of a war is delayed, then Russia builds more S-400, more S-500 and other anti-air-missile systems that are designed to defang the west’s favority tools. Russia also builds more Armada tanks. Russia gets more time to build a few more modern Navy ships. Russia gets more time to build more advanced fighter jets. Russia also gets those advanced weapons that Putin announced as having been tested. All the west gets are more squadrons of F-35s where half the sqd can’t fly.
Anything Putin can do to put off or delay a war is smart. And, since I don’t want to die in a nuclear holocaust or the winter that will follow, Putin’s smart in my mind for trying to put that off instead of just acting like yet another American gangster making threats and boasts.
Its a case of Russia inflicting so much damage the Reich may calculate its not worth attacking.
The Saker has written on several occaisions that the Russian forces in Syria are relatively small and not enough to fight toe-to-toe with what the axis of evil could muster in the region.
However, I’d also consider the comment in this thread about the long range missiles of the Russian navy being a threat to any NATO ship in the eastern med.
What is dangerous for the US Navy is the fact that not only will it be facing the Russian Air Force and Navy in Syria, but also the Russian Navy in the Caspian Sea and the Russian Air Force in Russia its self. Trump and the Pentagon better think very carefully. They better not drive Putin into an impossible situation, forcing him to respond.
http://www.deagel.com/Offensive-Weapons/Kh-32_a003339001.aspx
The Kh-32 cannot be taken down by either air defenses and/or aircraft interceptors because it flies at an altitude of 40 kilometers and a speed in excess of 5,000 kilometers per hour.
Tu-22M3 Backfire medium bombers have been deployed to Hamadan Airbase in Iran.
All they have to do is get within 1000km of targets and fire the missiles.
You forgot about the Russian Lake, aka Black Sea. Look at the map and you should understand that Sevastopol and Krimea are now an armed camp, let alone the various bases on or near the Sea on the mainland from Sochi north, all well within range of the AO of Syria.
https://militarymaps.info
Auslander
That would require Turkish cooperation since they would have to overfly Turkey.
Well obviously there is chlorine gas in Syria -if it is used to treat drinking water like most of the rest of the world.
It is not even listed as a chemical weapon by the OPCW, both for this reason and because it is a fairly useless weapon. Granted it’s a horrible death choking on the hydrochloric acid formed in your lungs but in terms of a weapon it dissipates too quickly in the air to be efficient for killing large numbers of people.
Killing people is what we humans do best, of course, and it will shortly be demonstrated in Syria but hopefully not escalated elsewhere. But who knows with Neocons and thug Bolton riding herd.
If it is shortly to be demonstrated in Syria then it has to be escalated at least to the big fat sitting duck US Navy targets who will of course have started the killing.
The US in Iraq have experience of chlorine gas attacks:
January 28, 2007: A suicide bomber drove a dump truck packed with explosives and a one-ton chlorine tank into an emergency response unit compound in Ramadi. No one appeared to have been injured by the chlorine gas, the US military said, but 16 people were killed in the blast.
one-ton chlorine tank – No one died as a result of the gas??????
http://www.chemeurope.com/en/encyclopedia/Chlorine_bombings_in_Iraq.html
There is still a little hope
Germany Together with 190 Other UN Member States, Have No Intention of Attacking Syria.
Why has Britain?
https://www.globalresearch.ca/germany-together-with-190-other-un-member-states-have-no-intention-of-attacking-syria-why-has-britain/5635851
An Appeal to James Mattis on the Supposed Chlorine Attack in Syria
https://www.globalresearch.ca/an-appeal-to-james-mattis-on-the-supposed-chlorine-attack-in-syria/5635813
Cooler Heads Prevailing On Syria? Let’s Hope!
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2018/april/12/cooler-heads-prevailing-on-syria-lets-hope/
Mayday! Mayday! ‘Mad mayhem’ Theresa May now has risen to a far higher office -that of a dictator.
“The BBC reported that May was ready to give the go-ahead for Britain to take part in military action. She would not seek approval from Parliament”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/west-uk-france-us-syria-attack-decision-russia-1.4615866
Excellent report. As always.
It shows a target rich environment at sea if Russians have to extract a price from the attackers.
I like your scenarios:
“First some suggested scenarios – (back of an envelope scribble style)
1. (Short duration of hours or days)
2. Limited strike, volleys of cruise missiles on a number of military installations & bases, (from surface ships & submarines).
3. Cruise missile strikes following by airstrikes using various aircraft (from A-10, F-15, F-18, B-52 to B-2).
4. (Longer duration –days & weeks) Sustained airstrikes along with limited ground invasion component, probably with heavy armour, from Al-Tanf area.”
#3 If aircraft come into play, US will certainly only do this if all the missile defenses are depleted of missiles and/or destroyed.
#4 If the long duration invasion out of Al-Tanf happens, the Russians will be at the tactical nuke stage of response.
#3 & #4 are clearly options Bolton and Trump would want.
The generals speaking to the Russian generals, as is now verified from all sides and many sources, know that even #2 is barely possible and highly improbable.
If the Syrian AF is really going to be destroyed, it will take 500 Tomahawks. Most of that would do about double the damage as last time to about 12-20 airfields.
If the US decides it must bomb and risks its platforms over Syria, then they intend a wider war to go after all Iranian assets (per Bibi).
Should that occur, I expect Hezbollah will rain Israel with rockets. Israel then will attack Lebanon.
The question is what does the US want? A war across Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Iraq in order to drive Iran back inside its borders?
If that occurs, Saudi, UAE will be engulfed in conflict, too.
The ME will be on fire.
Shia militias will set the earth on fire in 6-10 countries.
This extrapolation is what the Generals must have concluded. The question remains can they heed their counterparts in Russia who have assured them that Hell will envelope them and that their hegemonic advantages are meaningless.
L445
Yup. The zionazis are weighing their strategy. They expected more compromise from Russia, I expect.
From a reliable alt source:
It’s entirely possible the military has talked Trump down from a Syria attack — just as the military did with Obama in 2013.
Back then, a chemical-weapons attack took place in Syria. The Deep State was keen to pin it on President Bashar al-Assad. Establishment media were braying for U.S. airstrikes.
But the military was suspicious about the quality of the intel… and leery about who would fill the power vacuum if Assad’s butt got regime-changed. Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had a long meeting with Obama on Aug. 31.
The following day, Obama told reporters, “The chairman has indicated to me that our capacity to execute this mission is not time-sensitive: It will be effective tomorrow, next week or one month from now.”
A few days later, Russian President Vladimir Putin ratcheted down the tensions even more — brokering a deal under which Assad surrendered all of the Syrian government’s chemical weapons. They were destroyed aboard a U.S. ship in the Mediterranean, under the watch of United Nations inspectors.
Fast-forward to yesterday: Hours after Trump tweeted his threats, Defense Secretary James Mattis — a retired Marine general — struck a cautionary tone: “We’re still assessing the intelligence — ourselves and our allies. We’re still working on this.” By this morning, Trump was tweeting an attack “could be very soon or not so soon at all!”
Some of this US administration should wear White Helmets….Dunce Caps!
In case you’ve missed it Trump’s secret team and holders of the infamous twitter account have just engineered a withdrawl of official US participation in the UK led and conceived war on Syria. It was a head fake to WW3 and directly involved Russian participation in a new Cuban Missile Crisis type event.
The UK led Deep State is now severely circumscribed but will continue it’s efforts to prolong the war until Trump is removed, probably early next year after Congressional elections in November bring in a blue wave of Octopus crime family minions who will do exactly as they’re told. Until then we can expect many more efforts to demonize Russia but as with the Skirpal incident, the main protagonist being a wretched individual who was working at Porton Down and helping the UK to provide chemical/biological weapons to jihadis in Syria, the effort has been a dismal failure.
In the meantime Russia and the IRG need to move fast to help Syria finish the job.
Unless it is a feignt to recover the surprise advantage, it does look like Haley and Matis were giving dissonant advices. Haley responds to the AIPAC lobby while Matis responds to the MIC / Pentagon. In the end Matis prevailed. Netanyahu must be furious. So is MBS
If Trump has any functioning brain cells he will throw this one right into congress as it should be. Whatever he says would be a moot point and meaningless either way. He could give the biggest war monger speech ever. One that would even make Bolton blush.
If he ends it with “Seeing as this would be a declaration of war against the Syrian government we need congress to vote on it” then you know he really doesn’t want to. If he just gives the order to attack then he is the swamp.
Think about it Donald. Watch all the congress critters who are so pro war suddenly have to take responsibility for their votes with elections coming up in November? LMAO. Oh that would be fantastic.
The vast majority of your base do not want war. You complain about congress well here is something you can do to put them ALL on the spot.
The OPCW experts have arrived.
https://www.rt.com/news/423970-opcw-syria-douma-experts/
I doubt an attack will come while tbey’re in the country. WWIII deferred? Let’s pray so…
John Bolton as the ugly American, and linking it
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2018/04/12/john-bolton-as-the-ugly-american-and-liking-it/
Russia’s credibility and reliability as an ally hangs in the balance.
It is not acceptable for the US and Israel et al, to believe its ok to to “strike” a sovreign country on a whim.
Of all the countries in the world, Russia is the one most capable, of standing up to the wanton aggression being served up by the clique of criminals head-quartered in Tel -a- Viv.
Putin must hang tough and defend Syria.
If Russia folds, what hope is there for the rest of us?
Russia must stop waffling and stop giving the impression that Russia will only act if Russians are harmed.
When you are dealing with thugs and war-criminals you have to be forceful and forthright.
Let it be known in plain and unambiguous terms that Russia regards Syria as an ally and will not countenance any aggression against the country’s legitimate authority.
Let it be clearly communicated that Russia will smite those who impose aggression on Syria, regardless from where it emanates.
If Putin buckles here, it will send a clear message to countries like Iran,Venezuela and Bolivia etc, that the Kremlin cannot be relied on.
And if Syria falls, it will be just a matter of time before the maurading hordes converge on Iran.
We are also aware that China has been big disappointment for not being more forceful in supporting Russia at the UNSC, but humanity’s hope does not reside with Beijing it resides with Moscow.
I dont want to be dramatic but; one thing for certain, we are at watershed moment in the geo-political dispensation of the world, because either:
American hegemony caves to multi-polarity led by Russia, officially signalling the end US global dominance, or Russia folds and erase 20 years of hope for all humanity.
Selah
President Putins responsibility is to the people of Russia. A lot of people seem to project their desire for a saviour from the decadent, degenerate west, onto Pres. Putin.
I believe he will do what he sees as right for the Russian Federation. He is not Superman, flying aloft around the globe to right all wrongs. It may be the case however, that his efforts on behalf of his country, also incidentally benefit all of us is helping to defang the insane empire.
Yes totally agree. Much of the current reaction, as in this thread and others, is exactly that – reactive and I might add – driven by emotion. While I might also feel a similar emotional response in the face of the bloody Empire and globalist friends threatening to attack Syria and possibly the RF forces there, this is not a good basis for analysis.
Thankfully for all of us, judging from past handling of crises, Putin and the RF military leadership will not be acting on reactive emotion no matter how much the Empire provokes and goads them to over-reach and to escalate. This is not to say that the current crisis is not dangerous. Of course it is, and without doubt a lot is happening behind the scenes through ‘deconfliction’ channels and other channels of communication.
The thing is, the RF role in Syria has limited objectives – namely to help the Syrian government to defeat ISIS. In the face of recent threats spokespeople of RF have also had to underline their obligation to defend Russian personnel legitimately in Syria.
We all have to harden up because as the Empire loses its grip on unipolarity this won’t be the last of such provocations and brinkmanship.
Yes. His responsibility is to the people of Russia. But I understand that moot point as an ally you better be off with US rather than Russia. Iran I guess have no way coming close to US but Syria could have done when Qatar offered the Pipeline deal. That was a big mistake.
To bank on Putin to come to your help is futile because he rightly will look for the interest of Russian people.
But you are living in an Utopian world if you believe the neocons don’t have Russia in their Target list. Russia is the ultimate price. They will go for you once they have done with others. And Syria is a major part of it as it is the best way to remove the Russian Gas dependency of Europe.
The Cold war worked not because of the MAD. MAD still exist. But cold war worked because of the realization that the other guy will press the button if their interest are threatened. Now that fear is only in Russia as Americans knows that Russia don’t have the guts for that.
In a way may be the current situation looks like how Soviet responded to Nazi threat! It was not their issue until everyone else fallen. And then it became the issue.
You say Russians don’t have the guts for that.
Putin said they were not bluffing. I believe him.
Absolutely spot onRazor,
The people so concerned in UK,USA and Europe should stand up and be counted let their so called governments know that they want to live and enjoy life, not have it end in some sort of Armageddon. That is still a few years away.
How many of us have the balls to stand up and say Thank you Russia, Thank you Mr Putin. As said above Mr Putin does not owe us anything but we can show solidarity to him , even if our gutless bootlicking / a**se liking politicians will not
Syrian MP: Why didn’t US Use Its “Smart Missiles” Against Terrorists in Syria?
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201804121063457442-us-syria-trump/
I’ve added a couple of comments here about the Russian Navy, Tartus and Trump tweet
https://twitter.com/LepontDahu/status/984524200336592898
Lights, Action and War Propaganda: Al-Jazeera Releases White Helmets Video on Alleged Chemical Attack
in Douma After Trump Says, “It’s Time” for U.S. Forces to Leave Syria
https://www.globalresearch.ca/lights-action-and-war-propaganda-al-jazeera-releases-white-helmets-video-on-alleged-chemical-attack-in-douma-after-trump-says-its-time-for-u-s-forces-to-leave-syria/5635781
The United States is vulnerable if Russia decides to go all out
Russia has the power to evict United States from the middle east in an all out regional war
Strategic bombers will be flying at Russia borders firing air to ground cruise missiles at every base the United States has in the region,
Ground to ground strategic missiles will be following suit targeting every asset the United States has in the middle east.
All American and allied ships in the Mediterranean sea will be targeted in return the Russian base in Syria will be destroyed the personnel there will find cover in near city,
Russia is right there geographically all they have to do is shoot there cruise missiles at a target and destroyed it and they can do that for days, weeks, months, years.
Hopefully there are responsible people in the Pentagon.
A question that needs answering is why would any nation worth its salt see an ally and perhaps its own personnel subjected to a military attack based on a lie? Yet a lie provided by terrorist in the employ of the would be aggressor(s)?
If the USA et al should ask to be allowed to fire a few missiles to save face the answer should be to tell these aggressors to go tell more lies to whoever will listen about their (fake) attack in response to a hoax false flag preceded by a big No. Russian and Syria owe the west and the USA no favors whatsoever while the west should be dropping all sanctions, especially the ones predicated on this hoax false flag. Bastardos.
As you, no doubt, realize the goons pushing this “remonstration” don’t give a flying fig about Syrian civilians and how they die.
Therefore a peaceful resolution is impossible because it is a fake issue.
It seems very much as though the die has been cast and the West is prepared to go out in a blaze of glory rather than face “bankruptcy court”.
There may be a delay, but this is not over by any means. The destruction of all these countries by the U.S. is according to a long-established plan. They intend to complete it, one way or another. Lebanon, Iran, and Syria still have to be crushed. And they have no intention of becoming one amongst equals on the international stage. Until and unless that waring country is humbled the world will not be a safe, free place to live.
Thanks, LeDahu, useful over view of deployments.
There’s another scenario the author didn’t mention. That is, nothing may happen at all. By the time it’s time for the US to strike Syria, the US may be off doing something else that has nothing to do with Syria and everyone will have forgotten Syria. If you think I’m joking, mark my words, and ask yourself in two weeks whether I was right.
This is the way Trump works. For example, the Shayrat Tomahawk strike amounted to nichts, nill, nada (apologies however to the loved ones of the 11 or so that were killed). The flaming rhetoric between Trump and Kim Jong Un amounted to zip, zilch, zero—although even I was stocking up on food! :)
No, I suspect this is all a charade for the trillionaires, who are dumb but not poor, and who think, around their lovely white table cloths and wine goblets (a trillion doesn’t buy you much more than a million), that they are finally getting their war.
Not to make light of the world scene. Nation-destroying by the US-EU is egregious, immoral, heartbreaking to those of us who care, and life-ending to the victims.