by NatSouth for The Saker Blog
Project 636.3 Kilo improved class submarine ‘Krasnodar’ made a rare southbound transit through the Bosphorus. This is due to the Montreux Convention Article 12 only allowing submarines from Black Sea coastal states to exit the Black Sea for repairs. The last time this happened was with the transit of the ‘Alrosa’ for engineering repairs in late spring 2011. The ‘Alrosa’ subsequently returned to the Black Sea in September 2012.
Ultimately, this means the ‘Krasnodar’ is going to the Admiralty Shipyard in St. Petersburg for an overhaul. There is also a possibility of a stint in the Eastern Mediterranean, before (or after) heading for the Baltic.
There has been a gradual increase in ships going to the Eastern Mediterranean recently. The Russian Mediterranean Squadron will have soon in its ranks (up from just the 1 combatant ship):
‘Admiral Essen’;
‘Severomorsk’ – after having completed a shipyard overhaul in sunnier climes of the Black Sea.
‘Admiral Gorshkov’ en route for the first time;
And maybe the ‘Admiral Makarov’ and the Project 18280, ‘Ivan Khurs’ an AGI ship both left Sevastopol recently.
The French aircraft carrier group is now in the Eastern Mediterranean, with flight operations in support of ‘Op Chammal’ and ‘Inherent resolve’.
A frequent visitor, the US Navy and USAF are on watch in the skies over the Eastern Mediterranean. https://twitter.com/intel_sky/
It was expected that the USS Abraham Lincoln would deploy to the Mediterranean en route to the Gulf, but I cannot find any recent information on this.
Similarly, there has been an uptick in US and NATO military aircraft carrying out reconnaissance along the borders of Russia, (Baltic, Black Sea) with multiple flights being noted. https://ria.ru/20190314/
Possibly joining the French group is the UK’s ‘HMS Duncan’, recently arrived in Gibraltar where the submarine ‘HMS Ambush’ is also in port.
Today, one USAF B-52 was sent on a flight to the Baltic, turning around in international airspace off the Polish coast. This seems to be a regular yearly occurrence part of exercise BALTOPS, (2018, June 2017 and prior to that in 2016). https://twitter.com/starsandstripes/status/1106414720926605313?s=21
Maybe sending a pushback signal in response for similar Russian airforce deployments such as the Blackjack Tu-160 bomber flights into the North Sea and the Arctic and North Pacific. https://www.rferl.org/a/us-
While this was happening, US Navy P-8A Poseidon, USAF RC-135V Rivet Joint and a Swedish airforce Gulfstream Korpen were in the area. Someone certainly has a bee in their bonnet about Kaliningrad and having a heavy dose of SIGINT gathering.
Several B-52s had arrived to RAF Fairford, UK.
Kaliningrad certainly is a thorn in NATO’s side. (Presumably Washington couldn’t care less, just as it couldn’t care less if Europe evaporated overnight).
It seems to follow that, if NATO were contemplating any really large-scale mischief (the kind for which there will be no retribution short of worldwide catastrophe), it would make whatever plans it could to wipe out Kaliningrad at the very outset. (Without declaring war, obviously).
If they touched Kaliningrad war would start immediately – with strikes on all NATO command assets and any other relevant targets. There is no way to for them to remove Kaliningrad without starting WWIII – it’s Russia!
S-400s and Iskander nuclear missiles await such insanity as the Poles and NATO thicknecks threaten.
It will be swift and total from whatever source, launchers, bases and HQs strike at Kaliningrad.
That French carrier group has no business in the eastern Mediterranean. Macron has more than enough problems inside France. Not wise yet again making an enemy of Russia. They did that back in the 19th century, when Napoleon I invaded mainland Russia and Napoleon III invaded Crime. Result ? In the Franco-Prussian War of 1871, France found herself without allies. After it’s defeat, France went screaming to Russia, begging for an alliance. Russia foolishly agreed, even though the famous writer Dostoyevsky warned the Government not to do it, as Russia would be dragged into a future war with Germany, as indeed happened.
If there’s a build-up in eastmed and they intend fighting it cost big buckies,,, logistic support is spendy.
Comrade Sleboda, USN snipe (nuclear) understands, of course, Mark S. is Russian citizen now…brave guy.
He seems alert to this topic. I track his twiterthingy accordingly.
anyway, he noticed this>
https://twitter.com/MarkSleboda1/status/1106151882345590785
Mark Sleboda
Verified account @MarkSleboda1
Mark Sleboda Retweeted Ro Khanna
Pentagon obviously budgeting Overseas Contingency for an expected new war.
But which one?
#Venezuela?
#Iran?
#NorthKorea?
#Ukraine?
Mark Sleboda added,
Ro Khanna
Verified account @RoKhanna
The Pentagon is asking for a massive increase to $750 billion. They are increasing Overseas Contingency, which Mulvaney has called a “slush fund,” from $69 billion to $165 billion. Democrats must not allow one penny over the budget caps if we want to stop endless wars.
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I don’t get the comment about the Charle de Gaulle having no business in the Mediterranean. Well, yes, it’s homeport is Toulon and so far since being commissioned, a very regular visitor to the Eastern Mediterranean, ( like the Admiral Kuznetsov has). Hence, it is not a one-off event or new. Here is some more context:
Op Chamnal (in support of Op Inherent Resolve”) missions involving ‘Charles de Gaulle’ aircraft carrier
1st – 2014- 2015 Eastern Med & Gulf ( with US carrier Carl Vinson)
2016 Eastern Mediterranean & Gulf & command of Task Force 50
2017-2018 midlife overhaul refit
2019 Eastern Mediterranean & Gulf again
Maybe someone could analyse the worthiness (sarc) of Op Chammal?
https://southfront.org/pivotal-changes-in-russian-armed-forces/
Shoigu presentation…..sounds like Russia is really prepared for the “big one”……
Admiral Makarov’ and the Project 18280, ‘Ivan Khurs’ an AGI ship both back in Sevastopol
All bets off…
The Northern Fleet group with the frigate
‘Admiral Gorshkov’, the rug Nikolai Chiker and maybe ‘Elbrus’ (still together ??) or the ‘Severomorsk’.
The ‘Elbrus’ is now southbound in the Red Sea. Perhaps on its way to China??? (With either the Admiral Gorshkov or the Severomorsk?)
But it seems too early for the PLA(N) anniversary 70th events (1st October seems too far away).
https://twitter.com/capt_navy/status/1108429491519569926
Is this group going to exercise with PLA(N) as in past?
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/876650846792142848
My bet if this happens, is a voyage along the NSR back to Severomorsk?
The ‘Admiral Gorshkov’ is indeed heading off to China, so it seems. China and Russia will reportedly hold the joint Naval Interaction-2019 exercises right after a parade scheduled late April to celebrate the PLA Navy’s birthday, with Chinese experts expecting five to six Russian warships to participate.
In other news, another Buyan-M crew will get skills and experience of being deployed to Eastern Mediterranean. The corvette of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, ‘Orekhovo-Zuevo’ went through Bosphorus on her first Med deployment, joining the ‘Admiral Essen’ and the ‘Severomorsk’.