Dear friends,
After taking some time off to think things over I have tentatively come up with a general plan for this blog and I now want to share it with you.
The main difference with the previous orientation of this blog is that I want to switch from what was mainly a clearinghouse for information taken elsewhere interspersed with occasional original analyses to a more balanced mix of original analysis and highly relevant articles taken from outside the Imperial Homeland (after all, why duplicate the mostly excellent efforts of Counterpunch, Antiwar, Informationclearinghouse and many others?)
Originally, my aim had been to raise the alarm and show that all indicators and warnings were pointing to an upcoming “dawn of darkness” (aggression on Iran, Fascism in the USA, Neocon wars all over the Middle-East, etc.). I will now simply assume that my readers already understand this and instead of “preaching to the choir” I instead directly focus on the main aspects of the events unfolding before our eyes.
I have identified a number of key areas which, in my opinion, deserve a special scrutiny:
Internal US political developments: barring a highly unlikely miracle, an openly Fascist president will succeed Bush the Lesser in 2008 (see my article on this issue here). When it becomes clear to most Americans that their country is ruled by a Soviet style Nomenklatura composed as much of Democrats as of Republicans a period of civil unrests will begin which will be brutally crushed by the huge internal security/police/prison complex which has been built over the past decades and basic civil rights will be abolished under the pretext of some emergency.
External US policies: the Neocons will further strengthen their control over US policies in general, and foreign policy in particular. Even self-evident US national interests will be totally subordinated to the Likud’s view of Israeli national interests. As a result, the US foreign policy will be highly aggressive in the entire Middle-East resulting in more violent conflicts. The USA will also follow a radically anti-Russian stance in all aspects of its foreign policy, even when that places US national interests at risk.
Developments in Europe: the new “Imperial” agenda of the USA will be made far worse by the gradual takeover by crypto-Neocon politicians in Europe. If Dubya lost a ‘poodle’ with Blair’s departure he is now getting an entire kennel of poodles with the likes of Sarkozy, Brown, Merkel, etc. The European public opinion will be outraged by this and massive civil disturbances will result.
Israel’s crucial choice: Israel is facing an absolutely crucial, truly existential, choice. It has to choose between persisting in being a “Jewish state” or it can decided to become a real democracy. The fact is that due to a long series of huge miscalculations on the part of the Israeli elites a two state solution is now impossible. Jimmy Carter is quite correct when he says that the alternatives are peace or Apartheid, his mistake is that he limits his analysis to the Occupied Territories whereas this choice is exactly the same for Israel proper. As long as Israel persists in being an “ethnic state” there will be no democracy and no peace and the only way to finally end this conflict is to have a one man one vote multi-ethnic and multi-religious state of Israel. Since the vast majority of Israelis, terrified of their Arab and Palestinian neighbors, are not willing to even discuss such a solution, the bloodshed can only become much worse in the years to come.
The real ‘axis of evil’: four countries will play a particularly dangerous and outright ‘evil’ role in the Middle-East: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan and, of course, Israel (the latter running the show). While Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are breeding grounds for Wahabi/Salafi extremism, Turkey and Israel are Fascist (regional) superpowers which will, with full US backing, attempt to use the former two in their struggle against Shias all over the Middle-east.
Wars in the Middle-East: the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will continue and will be “enhanced” with the inevitable Imperial aggression against Iran. There is also a strong possibility of a US/Israeli fueled civil war in Lebanon. The war in Iraq will draw in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran. The war Iran will be the Empire’s “Stalingrad” in a sense that it will mark the “beginning of the end” for the Empire, albeit at a huge cost for the entire Middle-East. Initially, the Empire, aided by its faithful corporate propaganda machine, will appear highly successful and the Iranian response will appear weak but within less than 60 days following the beginning of the attack the collapse of the US policy in the Middle-East will become evident. It will take many years for the Empire to fully collapse, but from the day of the attack on Iran its decline will be inexorable.
A collapsing US economy: the costs of the Imperial wars, the fall of the dollar, the rise in the price of oil, the inevitable consequences of US economic deregulation, the breakdown of the social infrastructure inside the US will all contribute to a general collapse of the US economy resulting in even more violence abroad and in the Imperial Homeland.
A clueless American peace movement: with a few notable exceptions the US peace movement is clueless and lacks a unifying vision to seriously challenge the US Nomenklatura. The fact is that most Americans have now been thoroughly brainwashed by the corporate media and while they are able to generally oppose the Neocon policies they cannot identify, or meaningfully challenge, the forces and mechanisms which make them possible in the first place. Their is, of course, an intellectual elite in the antiwar movement, mainly on the left, which has a far better grasp of the nature of the beast, so to speak, but it is small, divided and out of touch with the prevailing ‘redneck’ culture which has been carefully nurtured by the US elites.
A resurgent Russia: under the leadership of Vladimir Putin and his likely successor, Sergei Ivanov, Russia will regain a lot of its former power. The state apparatus in general, and the armed forces and intelligence agencies (SVR, GRU, FSB) in particular, will jointly work to reduce US influence in the so-called “near abroad” (the countries for the former Soviet Union bordering Russia) where US Imperial stooges will run into trouble economically, politically and socially. The Empire will be too busy elsewhere to make much of a difference in this process. The new Russian power will also be felt in Eastern and even, to a lesser degree, in Western Europe. Russia, in partnership with China, will gradually seek to diminish US influence in the international scene.
The collapse of the Monroe doctrine: lead by the example of Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales, Latin American countries will free themselves from the capitalist economic model, will assert their economic and political autonomy from the Empire and will gradually isolate US stooges, such as Colombia, in Latin America. As in the former Soviet Union, the USA will be too busy handling other crises to successfully oppose this process.
These are, in my opinion, the key areas upon which I want to concentrate in the future.
I would very much like to hear your reactions to this analysis and to my new plans for this blog.
One of my hope would be that the readers of this blog would offer most suggestions, questions, comments and criticisms which, in turn, would result in more interesting discussions. This blog should become as much as forum as an information source.
Please drop me an email, or post here, to let me know what you think, ok?
Kind regards,
The Saker
Sounds good VS. And even though you wish to eschew reproducing the content on sites like Counterpunch or Antiwar, I believe it may be acceptable to reproduce a few paragraphs (as a “fair use”) and follow up with a link. Part of what makes blogs like youe usefuls is that readers don’t need to scour through google news to find a few interesting articles on foreign policy or international news.
– Antiwar Aficionado
one more thing – it’s good to see you blogging again.
– AA
Speaking of the European neocons, I thought you might find this interesting:
“Sarkozy accused of working for Israeli intelligence”
Remarkable you should mention it: an attack on Iran as the Empire’s (the Fourth Reich as I tend to call it) Stalingrad. It looks like economic collapse is under way anyway and I fear the result, with or without more war, will be very ugly and nasty.
Unless the peace movement in the US gets its act together – it is the only hope. And it is not impossible.
You shall do what you deem to be the right thing with your blog, I trust. May the Spirit remain with you.
Hi VS
The general idea seems good to me too, though I would disagree with your pessimism about the people in the US (and the US anti-war movement).
I think you overdo the “fascist” label (next US Prez and Turkey will not/isn’t anywhere near a fascist regime) too much too, but that would be good to have as a debate on your newly-directed blog I suppose.
Καλή επιτυχία
anticapitalista
@anticapitalista. thanks for your comment. whether the regime in Washington is pre-Fascist or fully Fascist is a crucial question indeed. I think that I will pick up on your comment and write about this in the near future. thanks for the suggestion!
VS
Here is a link to a link about the anti-war movement.
http://leninology.blogspot.com/2007/11/no-reason-for-gloom.html
and a link to some “kids against the machine”
http://leninology.blogspot.com/2007/11/american-insurgents-caught-on-video.html
Looking forward to the post(s)
anticapitalista
There is some good news on Iran. MNF-I and GoI briefings suggest that they have been playing a more positive role in Iraq in recent weeks. There have also been hopeful signs with respect to their nuclear program in the last few days.
Notice the drop in oil prices today.
At first glance, it appears that Khamenei is changing course—under considerable pressure from the Iranian public and powerful groups within Iraq. How long this lasts is not certain . . . but it is hopeful.
Regarding deregulation . . . deregulation is the reason for the Asian economic miracle of the last few decades. There will be more of it, not less.
The principle cause of the current financial sector problems in America and around the world relate to too much regulation and government interference in the financial system. And the problems with the financial system are real.
One interesting trend is that China and most of the rest of the world is starting to become more free market and deregulated than America in many ways. This too will continue.
The global economy has grown faster in recent years than any time in recorded human history. Most people around the world including most Americans have benefited enormously from this.
America’s share of global income with continue to shrink as the rest of the world becomes increasingly capitalistic and deregulated (even though America will keep benefiting from these trends in absolute terms). Within a decade, China’s GDP is likely to exceed America’s.
Most foreign countries will continue to focus less and less on America (and more on China, India and other fast growing countries.)
Latin America will likely become more free, free market, and deregulated over time as Latin American voters demand Asian style prosperity. They will start to focus less on America and Western Europe and more on Asia.
Anti-Americanism is unlikely to be a major political force in most of the nonmuslim world. Most foreigners are far more interested in getting ahead than getting even. And they won’t be satisfied with the American dream and becoming like America. They will gravitate towards exceptionalism, and becoming far richer and more successful than America.
I really doubt that Russian voters will want to sacrifice their own interests to fight an abstract concept of America (which is meaningless to most of them anyway). They are more likely to demand that their country become much more exceptional, successful, prosperous, deregulated and free market than America. They will want to out-America America. In any case, Russians will soon be more focused on China and India than America. And Russians will not define themselves as being against any country (including China, India or America.)
Vineyard, you have to get over your “America” obsession. Most of the rest of the world is. We Americans are just not that important. And we are becoming less so.
Very interesting, VS! Many of those themes are interrelated, aren’t they? I would be interested in following events from that perspective. In that sense, I very much look forward to your upcoming posts.
On the negative side, I would refrain from ‘bushspeak’ and drop the ‘axis of evil’ meme altogether. All those countries you have mentioned are only fighting for their survival, Israel included. We may not agree with the premise & the means of their fight for survival but that does not make them ‘evil’, IMO, only misguided – which does not mean that we should stay quiet about the human costs and in some cases, the injustice of such endeavours. True and naked evil is to be found among those who benefit from wars: the Bushes and the Cheneys, the military-industrial complex – Haliburton, Blackwater, Carlyle, Lockheed, etc.
Empiricism Empiricism Empiricism!
Stick to areas where you have an edge. Do you really think you have something original to say on the US Dollar, something that is based on first hand knowledge?
I say keep finding unusual stuff, rather than wallow in self-regurgitated masturbatory determinism. First hand commentary is fine, but stick to areas where you bring a real edge to the table. If I want hallucinogenics I take my own thank you.
From my own personal perspective as a resident of the Middle East, I have most interest in matters relating to this part of the world. I also find the, as you term it ‘resurgence’ of Russia to be an interesting ongoing development, particularly within the context of what seems to be shaping up to be a ‘multi-polar’ world.
Keen on blogging!
@gene: the ‘axis of evil’ comment was really a tongue in cheek way of listing what I think are the most dangerous actors in the Middle-East. But when you write True and naked evil is to be found among those who benefit from wars: the Bushes and the Cheneys, the military-industrial complex – Haliburton, Blackwater, Carlyle, Lockheed, etc. I have to point out that it is precisely the countries which I listed which are most in bed with the sources of evil you mention. Lastly, I do not believe that any of these countries are “fighting for their existence” but they are only fighting for the survival of the regimes in power in these countries, which is a totally different matter.
@guthman bey: Empiricism Empiricism Empiricism!
Stick to areas where you have an edge. Do you really think you have something original to say on the US Dollar, something that is based on first hand knowledge?
You are absolutely correct here. While I listed the main factors which, in my opinion, deserve careful scrutiny I will personally stay away from those I have little or nothing personal and original knowledge of. Thanks for the very pertinent advice!
great! every item in the list of topics you’ve proposed is important, but a long list may be a tall order to fill. i’d be happy to read comments on the real axis of evil, wars in the middle east, and resurgent russia. all inherently important, and all hard to get a clear perspective on here in the US.
-petey
Thanks Saker, I am glad to see you are at it again!
“Lastly, I do not believe that any of these countries are “fighting for their existence” but they are only fighting for the survival of the regimes in power in these…” – VS
I have to agree with you on this one VS. One of the biggest lies foisted on the American public is that the wars we find ourselves enmeshed in are not wars of American aggression. In my opinion the GWoT is a colossal hoax. Sometimes I get the impression that we barely even care about terrorism.
The same applies with Israel. Israel has successfully deceived its adherents into believing that it has only been fighting for its survival. The truth is Israel has been pursuing an aggressively expansionist agenda since at least 1967.
Like the US, Israel has become adept at instigating the successful provocations by terrorists to further its own aggressive ambitions and to terrify its populace into conferring even more power & carte blanche to its military.
Israel has successfully deceived its adherents into believing that it has only been fighting for its survival
Well, if Israel wants to survive as a race-based state its survival is indeed at risk. but if it wants to become a ‘normal’ democratic state it can, I think, achieve the peace most of its people yearn for (check out my new post about the Annapolis conference above)
Good to hear from you again, Saker.
I believe in the new focus, and in pursuing your own “comparative advantage”.
From a European perspective, I wonder about the likelihood of civil unrest either here or overseas, given redneck culture and the slow boiling of (us) frogs. But we shall see how bad it gets.
@Johannes: thanks for the input. looks like I will have to stick to the stuff I know something about. You and guthman are quite correct, of course.
And I will address the civil unrest in an upcoming analysis. stay tuned!