Dear friends,
Thanks to my awesome friend Tatzhit Mikhailovich I can, once again, share with you the subtitled version of a crucially important video statement made by Nikolai Starikov. The “hurray patriots” are going to be enraged, but a lot of you will appreciate the sophistication of Starikov’s (well, Putin’s, really) strategy.
Enjoy!
The Saker
(please press the ‘cc’ button to see the captions and the settings “wheel” to pick the language)
Go with the emotions, win a battle but lose the war. Put aside the emotions and play the game to win.
Putin I believe, has feelings for fellow people and a conscience which he puts aside to play the game.
I hope he lives to see the war won, as he has had to make some hard decisions.
Here is Starikov’s view of the situation with Estonia:
http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/nikolay-starikov-estonia-should-pay.html
Another way to historically “win” a battle.
At about 8:46, he says “when LPR and DPR separate from Russia . . .”
He must have meant “. . .separate from Ukraine . . .”
Doesn’t make sense otherwise.
But — good lecture.
No, he refers in that sentence to the independence state of the two republics. That cannot be allowed, thus when they “separate from Russia” as independent, recognized as such by Russia, which he argues, cannot be allowed to happen. Therefore, no recognition as such. They stay with Ukraine. The whole point of his argument.
He didn’t say Russia; the sub did.
Yes, he says “when LPR and DPR separate from Ukraine…”
Strange, but at the same point the German subs are faulty, too.
Nikolai Starikov: Then support the militants who do show up to fight in the DPR and LPR and make the support and the conditions for it clear, and transparent and honest. The use of assassinations or political commissars is outmoded technology and sows the seeds of dissent and demoralization which is what the forces trying to create anit-Russia want so why help them do their job by crude apologetics about the assassination of Mozgovoi?
Actually, this is a good presentation free of the usual political rhetoric that so turns me off when
starikov speaks. Character assassination against a popular figure will not work in the time of the internet/cell phone use especially when trying to rally a popular struggle so take that out of your playbook.
“Character assassination against a popular figure will not work in the time of the internet/cell phone use”
So if you are confident that this is true, why do you allege that Putin doesn’t know the same?
How on earth is this thesis of “Mozgovoi killed by Russian Speznas…” even viable (without considering Russia’s 5th column)?
What is needed is some sort of semi-dual citizenship for Donbas, part Ukrainian, part Russian, part independent, maybe, or declare itself the legitimate Ukraine so Kiev becomes the ‘rebels’ — and there is precedent and law supporting that. Legally it could become muddy as a swamp and that wouldn’t matter since law is ignored now anyway and taking a few decades to work out would be fine.
Russia can accept Donbas as a free Ukrainian agent or a ‘partner state’ or ‘twin brother state’, or call it whatever, and sign treaties with it. It’s the facts on the ground which will matter most.
We see with the empire that law is gone, treaties are gone, truth in language and diplomacy is gone, and appearances and public opinion count for virtually nothing in terms of determining events. What is left is raw power and actions, with the western veneer of civilization being stripped away. All bets are off. Russian respect for law may work internally and with true willing partners, but must recognize that it’s meaningless with the empire, and nothing the US or EU says can be trusted at all. (Just look at the latest IMF action, or what the UN has been doing for decades.)
Raw power and reality is becoming the operative factor in the US too, as people learn to ignore what the media, corporations, and government say. (And see the abuse: http://thefreethoughtproject.com/police-raid-pot-shop-start-eating-edibles-playing-darts/#MQD98MzG7e5Si300.99 )
This is not to say that media and propaganda matter for little or nothing now, but that the target and what actual effect it could have need to be judged. The US is already so mystified and saturated with lies that propaganda can have little additional effect — only truth can change that situation, as it gradually filters through (but poverty is coming through faster).
How much more effective could a Ukrainian Donbas be instead of an independent Donbas with strong legal ties with Russia in restraining Kiev, however? How much legal or political influence does it have in Kiev now? (What of an independent Novorossia which supports the people in Ukraine which are fed up with Kiev?). I still can’t see Donbas ever being part of Ukraine again after what has happened.
I was looking more at the silk road trials and it is just amazing that the entire justice system is that there is none. The government is using hacking techniques and most likely that which is built into devices that run computers and routers to take control of things. Recent revelations show they have embedded spying tools inside hard drives which can take over the computer. And then by denying people the right to a defense where you are not allowed to question the governments narrative, you are found guilty and sentenced.. JUDGE DREAD… And in the end it really does not matter who is guilty, as long as someone is punished.. Remember the 70’s when blacks were just punished for crimes because someone has to be punished? The entire US reality is based on scenes from movies.. You have actors and support cast and the entire shebang of troops all doing their part and making a living for this make believe culture and reality show. There is nothing of worth or anything based on the real world. Reminds me of those movies where the actor is made to believe he is living in the real world but he is actually on the set of a movie and his entire existence is on the set itself. The entire country is a set now. Where the government can change the script as it sees fit because that’s what good writers do.. Sell a good story for the audience.. truth is arbitrary in such a scenario since it is not a documentary..
I recall driving home one day when I heard that Reagan had done another un-presidental dumb-ass thing (this after he was shot in 1981) and thinking “I wonder if Reagan was actually killed then and replaced by a grade-B actor”. Then it hit me: Reagan was always just a grade-B actor.
They all were!
– Politics is Hollywood for ugly people… –
As for the video… Nikolai Starikov’s elegant and correct formulation of the Western political practices.
West Wants Ukraine as ‘Anti-Russia’
That’s what it wants Ukraine to be and is helping it to become
http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/20/2568
How long the West is willing to pay for the crumbling economy of Ukraine without guarantees of the beginning of its war with Russia? The Western strategy rule says: lost control over the territory – create the Antithesis.
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.ru/2014/12/the-us-cannot-start-major-war-in-ukraine.html
A thing to remember about this article and ignoring emptions: this is useful for thinking, but it’s not the only valid way to think and judge. Emotions are actually an integral part of thinking and knowing. I learned while making art that emotions are critical, using faculties that are part of being human, and I suspect conscious, but that we should learn how to employ them well — just as we need to do ‘critical thinking’ we need to ‘critical feeling’.
I see
http://russia-insider.com/en/donbass-protests-demand-justice-victims-american-war-ukraine/ri7973
Donbass Protests Demand Justice for Victims of American War in Ukraine
In Donetsk thousands protest Ukraine army shelling which claimed its latest victims – an 11 year old girl and her father – while US arms and trains this same army
[…]
Taking his cue from Washington, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko denounced the leaders of Donetsk and Lugansk, saying he would never negotiate with “homeless people, atheists and parasites who were given weapons, unable to feed themselves, [with an] irresponsible attitude towards children and the elderly.” (Gazeta.ru, May 29)
[…]
and it’s obvious that Poroshenko must be locked in a small box somewhere out of the way. Also obvious is that the morality an the emotions can be ignored or badly used if we are going to solve this crisis. They too are part of the information and feedback loops required in managing this, and in defining the goals.
Starikov’s elucidation of the divide and conquer strategy is useful, but so is the unity and commitment from people aware of emotions in defeating it, if they are felt skillfully. ‘Emotion’ with same root as ‘motivate’: ‘move’, which is part of resisting and organizing. Move the Nazis and imperialists into little boxes somewhere.
A criminal killer like Porky, should not be put in a box “somewhere”, he is fully capable of what he is doing, and he is doing that for power and money. He should be executed.
Hey! Did I specify a box above ground? ;->
I don’t understand why human beings always think to kill somebody is a solution….a serious criminal should do ‘time’….on bread and water….
If you kill them…all you’re doing is sending them back to the spiritual worlds…why does the spiritual world have to deal with our mess all the time ? better to deal with the criminals here on earth.
I wouldn’t care as long as these sociopaths were permanently prevented from doing more damage — but there’s the rub: too many times they are let loose again or manage to do damage even from prison. There is also the question of deterrence and ongoing publicity.
Yes, we’re definitely dreaming about how things ‘should’ be…so….in that case…the people in charge of jailed socio-paths…should know better than to ever ever ever release them….these guys should be kept in solitary and visited every day by one priest in the morning and another … perhaps not priest, but holy person in the evening….no TV…but very good cultural and somewhat religious books. Such as Tolstoy etc….no computer either, but can paint with water or oils….and may play musical instrument….so humanity tries to convert the criminality, without hope for the whole life span of the criminal…then they die….what a better person they will be…even though they are still a socio-path, because that condition is incurable.
Putin’s strategy is that of Cunctator. Cunctator means “delayer”. It is also called Fabian strategy. Remember 2nd Punic war?
“While avoiding decisive battles, the side employing this strategy harasses its enemy through skirmishes to cause attrition, disrupt supply and affect morale. Employment of this strategy implies that the side adopting this strategy believes time is on its side, but it may also be adopted when no feasible alternative strategy can be devised.”
At first the Romans were unimpressed with Fabius Maximus defensive strategy and gave Fabius his epithet Cunctator as an insult. However his strategy saved the Rome and Cunctator became an honorific title.
The question is, how much time — how long can Donbas keep losing people and getting damaged infrastructure, and endure the humanitarian crisis? How long can the US keep propping up Kiev? How long before the West Ukrainians and those under control of Kiev pop their corks? How long before Russians run out of patience and support going to battle? How long can EU keep up the farce?
What can be done to make the interim more endurable?
We may only guess the answer at this stage by looking at available info so my guess is that critical changes in Donbas and Ukraine will come within a year.
Sounds about right to me — maybe by Autumn (October? or November when the US election circus hits and the campaign promises pass their ‘best by’ date, and the Winter storms threaten?).
Yes, 2016 elections in US as well as in Russia.
BTW, here are 385 people who have registered as 2016 US presidential candidates, according to the federal filings record available at
http://www.fec.gov/press/resources/2016presidential_form2dt.shtml
And one of them number 375 goes under the name CAESAR, PRESIDENT EMPEROR ;)
#208 gets my vote: Sydneys Voluptous Buttocks…; )
God I hope there will be campaign signs and bumper stickers.
yes, I read somewhere that Darth is extremely popular…what a civilization eh ? Where have all the good men gone and where are all the gods ?
https://youtu.be/OBwS66EBUcY
problem is blue,
the mast on the boat isn’t going down – it continues to rise slowly. The distribution of the US wealth is all that is changing.
The parasite flourishes.
The increasingly rotten wealth distribution is itself a problem, however — even at some point for the parasites, because of damage to the system. A parasite is in trouble when the host dies, and the host is now the world so there is no place for it to relocate to. Picture a world when the US really does become a ‘third world’ country, and EU is collapsed: that can’t be sustained.
blue,
the world is their oyster, it is a long time before the US dies (&then the world…& then…)
unfortunately everything is loaded in favour of the guys with the money (&the power).
It’s loaded in the bad guys favour.
I don’t like to think about that.
But it’s not the only story, and I can think about revolutions too. Already there are very many very unhappy and angry people, so everything is not loaded in their favor, and the fascists are worried about it, with good reason. Even if they try to make people think that ‘resistance is futile, it’s not.
The problem is that those characteristics of the battle are not being used by Russia/NAF, but by the other side. Time may or may not be on Russia’s side, but I get the feeling the correct part is “it may also be adopted when no feasible alternative strategy can be devised.” The Kremlin has no obvious way to save both her national interests and those of her oligarchs.
As far as battle for Donbas is concerned UAF is using tactics simmilar to that of William The Bastard at Hastings in 1066 trying to provoke NAF into premature attack.
Putin’s strategy is related to overall campaign where adversaries are US/NATO vs Russia.
Starikov makes a lot of sense. Though his claim that the Americans carved off the Ukraine away from Russia from 2011 on as “anti_Russia” narrows the scope too much in my opinion. Anti-Russia is a very good way to put it, but the time frame and scope of this is off.
The ZPC/NWO “anti-Russia” project did not begin in 2011, it didn’t even begin in 2004 or 1991, it began in 1917, and in some aspects, even centuries earlier than that. But 1917 is the year the fascists in the west became rabid dogs regarding Russia. The current manifestation of this fanaticism, that of splitting up the USSR/Eastern block into anti-Russian states, was renewed in the late 1970s. Turning all of Eastern Europe anti-Russian went into overdrive once the USSR imploded. This current isolate Russia/create fascist colonies strategy is not very much different from that the earlier version of the ZPC/NWO practiced against the young USSR when they converted many former Russian regions and much of Eastern Europe into fascist anti-Soviet fiefdoms. The plan is much more than having just an Ukrainian colony hostile to Russia, but to have all the states bordering Russia hostile to Russia, and fanatically so.
Rebel leader Alexander Khodakovsky told a Russian newspaper that Ukraine is not a fascist state, that Ukraine will assume full control of the Donbass at the end of the year, and that the flags of the rebel republics cannot be flown once control of the Russian-Ukrainian border is returned to Ukraine. Ironically, the people of Donbass, according to a poll cited by Khodakovsky, are more willing to endure continued war than the Russian elites or leadership.
http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2015/06/11_a_6838785.shtml
He is ex-SBU, responsible for some of the most disastrous events of the war. He is a mole in the militia and very, very suspect as a military guy.
Marinka disaster was his baby. The original screwup at the Donetsk airport at the beginning of the war when 31 Chechens were killed, that was him sending them into an ambush.
He needs a bullet in the back of his head or fragged with a grenade.
There is one other screwup, I don’t quite recall, but he has been distinguished with disasters.
Okay, it was associated with MH-17. He gave an interview saying the rebels had BUKs. He gave the interview to Reuters which then muddied the waters forever.
Why is he a leader? There are some very strange things in Donbass. Khodakovsky is the most strange. His unit is the Vostok Battalion.
Can anyone recall Vostok doing anything good?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Khodakovsky
: First Battle of Donetsk Airport
On the morning of 26 May, 200 pro-Russian insurgents, including members of the Vostok Battalion, captured the main terminal of the Donetsk International Airport, erected roadblocks around it, and demanded that government forces withdraw.[229] Soon after these demands were issued, the Ukrainian National Guard issued an ultimatum to the separatists, asking them to surrender. This was subsequently rejected. Government forces then launched an assault on separatist positions at the airport with paratroopers and airstrikes.[230][231] Attack helicopters were also used by government forces. They targeted a separatist-operated anti-aircraft gun.[232] An estimated forty insurgents died in the fighting, with some civilians caught in the crossfire.[233][234][235] Between fifteen and thirty-five insurgents were killed in a single incident, when two lorries carrying wounded fighters away from airport were destroyed in an ambush by government forces.[236][237]
True, all very suspicious. I did not know all that you are telling but always surprised me that the Chechen battalion, tanned in a thousand fierce battles, were so decimated at the first opportunity.
To me this Khodakovsky I have never liked. For starters I do not like his face, that look of treacherous he has. And I still remember his problems to join the NAF and his problems with Strelkov.
Clearly Kiev / Amerikanski agent.
That he passes to the other side. You can see the plume from the beginning.
yes…Kordakovsky the oligarch ? How bizarre to call him a ‘rebel’ … I couldn’t figure out who the heck anon was even talking about.
Call him by the right word…Rebel stands for all that I love most.
I think you are confusing rebel leader Alexander Khodakovsky with oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky. While both have been disasters for Russia and Russian interests, they are different people.
ah…sorry ’bout that….
For those of you that, like me, choose to save these videos directly from YouTube. You will notice that the YouTube caps don’t save with your downloaded video. I go to the “Keep Subs” website and retrieve these videos’ subtitles to reunite with their parent videos in my MEDIA PLAYER CLASSIC HOME CINEMA, from CCCP :-)
(the resultant subtitles, when they appear in your media player will usually be rendered much nicer than what you see online in the YouTube version. This will depend on your player’s subtitle settings)
This videos subtitle file can be found here:
http://keepsubs.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DOELF_qlalr8
May your favorite deity bless those folks that do the hard work of providing these subtitles for us ignorant furriners, and also bless the guys and gals that reconnect us with these lost subtitle files at good ol KeepSubs dot commie :-) :-)
Is Kazzura still posting somewhere ??? Bless her heart too.
Bless the Saker and his hardworking associates.
Bless Volodya, bless the good people of Russia and Novorossia and for crying out loud bless those bastards in control of the Evil Empire with some brains, compassion, and love for the world instead of the almighty damned US dollar.
Adagio, por favor
PS: Please bless George Soros with a timely demise in order that the rest of us may also see some peace after he is gone from this plane.
I do that, but when I download the video I copy the name of the file and immediately rename the sub file as the same name but with .srt extension, which GOM player wants. That also prevents ending up with the same short name for two .srt files for different videos, which I need for backing up and keeping them properly associated.
I use
“4K Video Downloader allows to download video, audio and subtitles from YouTube in high-quality and as fast as your computer and connection will allow. If you want that video on your iPad, iPhone or other device we’ve got you covered.”
https://www.4kdownload.com/products/product-videodownloader
Always search the web for these program tool sites linked by comment writers on sites for info about compatibility problems for your system, and/or virus connections, before blindly downloading these programs.
http://www.cnet.com/news/free-apps-install-spyware-on-macs/#!
http://www.bleepingcomputer.com/forums/t/510527/cnet-and-malware/
Something for free in a capital world?
Wuahahahahahhhahaaahhhhhh….
Thanks Adagio, blue and Ben
I use ilivid and the subs are retained in my Media Player
http://www.ilivid.com/
Christine
Any program downloaded has to be researched and checked for reviews and comments, and some judgement made, including where it’s downloaded from and which version. And yes, always custom install and watch for the add-on stuff.
Remember: “if you don’t buy a product, you are the product” — often holds true (even when you do buy it).
https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20120314101101AAyunx2
Best Answer: iLivid is safe, both Softpedia and Download.com offer this program for download, so it doesn’t contain malware but as Softpedia states… Users are advised to pay attention while installing this ad-supported application:
· Offers to change the homepage for web browsers installed in the system
· Offers to change the default search engine for web browsers installed in the system
· Offers to download or install software or components (iLivid Toolbar, Bandoo) that the program does not require to fully function
Still, there are better ways than installing iLivid for what you’re trying to do.
J · 3 years ago
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Rhonda
Not convinced ilivid is safe for your computer. I wanted to download a trial version of Microsoft Publisher and thought I was on a legit MS site. It required downloading ilivid, so I did. After downloading ilivid my computer became very slow and Google Chrome would not even open…had to use Internet Explorer to get onto the internet. Once I deleted ilivid and restarted my computer everything is fine again. Note to self: be very careful about downloading from any site.
Rhonda · 2 years ago
[…]
Also see http://deletemalware.blogspot.com/2013/02/how-to-remove-ilivid.html
@blue et al
thanks to all of you, yes it is true ilivid is tricky. I had problems so I had to uninstall and then reinstall.
I was very careful with the reinstall. It tries to make itself your torrent default as well as all that you mentioned.
So far, the reinstall has not created any problems
but I plan to try your recommendations as well
I also use Spybot Search and Destroy regularly….
Christine
@blue et al
I add that the problem I had was the same as Rhonda’s. eg when you are invited to d/l ilivid by surprise while in the midst of another task, that is where I think the problem lies.
When I reinstalled …I did so on their own site…still tricky still need to watch every part of the process, but the key is “where” you d/l from.
Also, it downloads Youtubes fine, but other videos “fail”. eg LiveLeak etc.
Best
Christine
Malwarebytes is very good.
I paid registered with them some time back, but don’t run the fancy new version because my ram is so small, but it works great. It’s great for scanning, with the free version (but the paid version is worth it). It’s mean, lean, and can catch many nasties that others don’t. There are some nice auxiliary tools from them too.
BTW — before installing a new program it’s a good idea to create a restore point in case things go haywire.
He does a good job of explaining the general idea, but it would be helpful to explain where it may lead, or how to avoid having Donetsk leveled over the next year or so. If the NAF can’t gain territory either due to the strength of Kiev’s defenses or the additional sanctions that would come, then what is to stop a serious loss of morale inside the NAF and the rebel zones? In other words, if you wanted to follow this strategy, didn’t you need to take more territory when you had the chance?
By the way, the problem is not the “hurray patriots”. The problem is that so many others are thinking that the Kremlin’s cunning plan is looking more and more like Yanukovich’s cunning plan. One common view is that the Kremlin wanted to create the simulacrum of a Novorossiya or Donbass threat to distract Kiev from the Crimea and force the West to negotiate a federalized Ukraine that wasn’t in the EU or Eurasian Union and not in NATO. The trouble is that it was obvious from the beginning that Russia didn’t actually want to break up the Ukraine, and didn’t have the resources inside the Ukraine to prevent it turning into a Nazi state over time. So the West called different bluffs by Putin, and he has had to become very quiet. It isn’t his fault; he just didn’t have any cards to play with. In this view, the only real threat Russia has at the moment is to try to turn the country into a failed state. But the US may doubt that the Kremlin has the guts to actually do it. The Russian oligarchs own lots of property in the Ukraine, so it is hard to do things that harm them.
Recall that when Donbas votes for independence that Putin had said they should hold off on the vote. I think he must have had something else in mind than letting Ukraine fall into fascism — but I don’t know what and haven’t thought about it.
There are numerous discussions from people who are supposedly close to someone with some idea of how things went down. Hard to say if this kind of info is that useful, but much of it seems plausible and is probably designed to deflect blame for the current mess. “It is all Surkov’s fault.”
One common story is that the Kremlin got caught by surprise with the coup. They thought the color revolution had died down, and they had a deal with the EU being worked out. And they were confident that they could buy anyone in the country, and that the anti-Russian words were only for public consumption. Once the coup went down, there was no time for normal processes and different groups with different views got different assignments. Shoigu was in charge of the Crimean plans, for example. Novorossiya was not meant as a real idea, just a threat while the Kremlin figured out how it could negotiate with the EU. Unfortunately, the EU’s position was harsh then and is today. So there is no face-saving way out for Russia. The West wants Putin gone, preferably with maximum turmoil in Russian high circles.
One could make the case that they didn’t really have any plans. If they had had decent plans, this whole mess wouldn’t have occurred, and there would have been some pro-Russian groups and institutions in the country. This begs the question of why they didn’t have decent plans, and that gets back to the different factions. Some are simply partners and friends of the Ukrainian oligarchs. Then there is Gazprom. The Russian diplomatic corps seems to have been useless or worse, so that didn’t help. Just a huge mess. If Putin had truly not wanted a vote, he needed to say so (and act) earlier.
i’ve said it before Paul II,
your perception is some of the most considered i’ve seen.
Russia (&China) is/are oligarchical led Capitalist society/(ies).
Unless we do something very different we are all discussing the same outcome – a unipolar/multipolar animal farm.
Maybe Putin knows the Poles have their eye on their old territories and if Russia takes hers and Poland theirs and the Hungarians and Romanians theirs ,not much will be left of Ukraine.
At this point, this seems like a reasonable solution. I’m sure the ethnic Hungarians and Romanians in the western part of Ukraine would be perfectly happy with joining Hungary or Romania. Given the number of Ukranians seeking work in Poland (often illegally), my guess is plenty would be happy to “become Polish” officially. And most in Novorossia would be happy to find themselves living in autonomous republics within the Russian Federation. Only the hardcore neo-nazi/ultranationalist types would be a bit annoyed, but a joint Polish-Hungarian-Russian de-nazification campaign could take care of that just fine.
Of course the chance of this happening is about the same as that of Porky turning into a magical butterfly, but in theory it’s a pretty decent solution. Especially if you consider the fact that in its 25-year history, Ukraine has never really been an economically viable and fully independent state.
@ Tatzhit Mikhailovich,
Thank you for all your hard work and the time and effort you put into getting us this subtitled video.
On a side note: have you considered using a different font color [yellow, for example], so your translation is easier to read?
No matter what, thank you anyway.
:[]:
Daniel, please see my comment above here.
Download the video from YouTube (it will be easier to manipulate in your own video player and you save bandwidth by saving it to your own puter)
Got to “KEEPSUBS dot com, retrieve the subtitle file and load it into the video player with along with the video. (this gets to be a snap after you’ve done it a few times)
And Viola !! You can tailor the appearance of your subtitles any which way you want.
I use CCCP’s Media Player Home Cinema.
As a ‘for instance’ here is today’s subtitle from Keepsubs. Brought to you by the letter “S”.
http://keepsubs.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DOELF_qlalr8
i have difficultly seeing D/LPR staying part of Ukraine….to much blood under the bridge…..would you want to stay…..of course not…..and if the anglo zionists are so hell bent on invading Russia i don’t think they are restricted to invading only through D/LPD….not in the least logical…..the anglo zionists are their own worst enemies….the west is in decline and if an attack were to be launched it would be with nuclear ICBM….not hords out of the cities and countryside of Ukraine……
I’m sure that a historian/politician like Mr. Starikov knows a lot more about the geopolitics of the Ukrainian conflict than I do, but I think that many observers of the crisis there – perhaps even including Starikov himself – make the following mistake when attempting to make sense of Russia’s position: they assume that Russia’s policy is a result of a unified strategy, like Putin’s for example. I think that this may be an erroneous assumption. Often when I observe Russia’s actions in response to the crisis in Ukraine, actions which frequently appear to be clumsy and half-hearted, I think that our policy there is not the result of a coherent strategy but rather the middle point between conflicting positions of competing groups within the Kremlin.
Starikov may be right that in the present context, it makes more sense for Russia to keep DNR and LNR chained to Ukraine but even the creation of these two republics appears to have been due to local activism than some grand Russian strategy.
And besides, what’s our endgame? Ukraine’s army will continue making life unbearable in Donbass, people will be fleeing, and infrastructure will be turned into rubble while the Russian economy is bleeding. This scenario no doubt suits the US just fine. How long can this situation last for? The attempt to restrain Ukraine with DNR and LNR appears to be more of a stopgap measure than anything else.
re: “And besides, what’s our endgame? Ukraine’s army will continue making life unbearable in Donbass, people will be fleeing, and infrastructure will be turned into rubble while the Russian economy is bleeding. This scenario no doubt suits the US just fine. How long can this situation last for? The attempt to restrain Ukraine with DNR and LNR appears to be more of a stopgap measure than anything else.”
This is what leads to your point about compromise maneuvers. To use a chess analogy, what would it be like if Karpov and Kasparov played as a team, and had to compromise on each move? I think the answer would be ugly. You can’t really compromise between relentless aggression and subtly maneuvering for a superior endgame. It is like mixing a bear and an eagle, or something like that.
Compromise isn’t the best word to describe what I meant inasmuch as the concept implies an orderly settlement of a dispute to arrive at a mutually satisfactory position. What I had in mind was that there is a degree of institutional disorder within Russia, and our policy in Ukraine is the average direction of multiple conflicting vectors. The president wants one thing, the energy giants something else, etc., and so the result is a muddled response to the crisis.
Thanks, Saker. I agree this is a crucially important theory of the battlefield reality. Starikov repeats this theme unique to him, but which makes perfect sense in other world history – this concept of: “when they lose control of a region they create the anti-region as they leave”.
In response to this, DPR/LPR are fighting for the Russian world, to prevent Ukraine from being at war with Russia.
What is happening is a struggle to prevent the “anti-Russia” arising in Ukraine, because the “anti-anti-Russia” also arose – independently, out of the blue, and without understanding this concept – and prevents the American scheme from taking place.
Starikov is presenting a formula – outside of emotions – that describes the field of battle and it makes total sense.
Sorry, I didn’t understand about the President of Belarus flying to Kiev, no emotions…what was that implying ?
Let us pretend for a minute. Something happens that makes all firearms disappear from Ukraine, including tank cannon, GRADS, howitzers etc. .So Kiev gives up and declares an end to the “ATO”. Then what?
* Right Sector will still want to maraud
* Donbass will maintain the checkpoints to keep them out,
* but the fighting would have to be hand to hand, bats and rocks. OK.
* they all get kicked out of the now-useless army, so no pay, so they go to Poland or look for work, most of them. OK.
* NAF control the checkpoints, so they through food and supplies.
Peace? friendship? no. This does not suit the financial plan. That involved selling everything off cheaply to foreigners. And Donbass doesn’t want to let go their industries. They are lucky in that a lot belong to Akhmetov and HE doesn’t want to let them go either. And he doesn’t have to,unlike State owned businesses which they are currently running into the ground on purpose, all the better to sell them off cheap+kickbacks.
But they won’t let go the State owned things either, so there is another war. No guns, so they’ll have to do it all with bats. Bows and arrows. Because they still have their factories and mines, and a fair amount of autonomy, Donbass remains employed and fed. So people from the other areas start coming in (a) to steal or rob, which will get rebuffed or (b) to live and work.
How long before people start demanding their government(s) run things like that as well? then what? Maidan 3? Maidan 16?
So some of today’s politicians meet some lamp posts, and new are elected and they reverse some of the foreign sales. Then they all starve for a year or two, eating out of White Convoys, then things start to head towards normal.
How does EU/USA/NATO take all this? it really depends how soon this happens, and how much money is left on the other side. I don’t know this bit. They won’t be around much at all, I think.
DNR? LPR? they are too good to just join Russia and just become the crippled little cousin that’s looked after for charity. They’re much too good for that. They are headed for doing better, under siege, than their “free” and expensive jailers.
In the next 3 to 5 years they can expand that to the whole country and they will be asked to do so. The country will be renamed the X(something) Federation. It will no longer be called Borderland. Edges. Badlands. Nobody Wants it Buffer Lands. It will have 5 or 6 republics in it. Ukraine will be one. Transnistria will be another. It will be the fastest growing country in Europe, and it will make some of its living from others coming to learn the miracle. They will, perforce, be world leaders in prosthetic technology, sending doctors and mine clears to places like Cambodia as foreign aid.
I probably won’t live to see this. I pray every day that they do.
.
There is potential for them to remain independent and do well. Also a potential for more chaos and violence; -weapons do not just disappear.
In the end of the day, this is a choice between formal (territorial integrity, etc) + corporate-financial principles over human values. When monies and careers are to be made, the latter is often lost, under whatever flag they my be carrying
You recognize a state with certain borders. As DPR/LNR have claims to Ukraine that would place Putin for an impossible dilemma if he would recognize it. If he would recognize them within their present borders some guys there wouldn’t be very happy. If he recognized their claims he would basically declare war on Ukraine.
More interesting in this speech I found the inherent logic. If you would extend it you would arrive at the conclusion that Putin doesn’t want peace in East Ukraine – not even with far going autonomy – as that would enable Ukraine to focus on Crimea. I am not sure if that is Putin’s logic, but it certainly is Starikov’s.
Yes, the logic is that Russia needs a never-ending war in the Donbass, as that will keep the pressure off the Crimea. But I don’t buy it, and I don’t think Starikov does, either, as popularity and morale in both Russia and the Donbass would go down into the gutter. But Starikov is a politician, after all, so what he says should be taken with lots of salt.
Dear The Saker,
Thank you for putting this very, very important interview on here. This is what the “hurray patriots” need to understand – the bigger picture – and what really is going on. A reminder is required.
That is why the sanctions will keep coming no matter what. Its the only way the EU/US can keep justifying their actions and trying to hurt Russia/get Putin removed as they aren’t getting the war thanks to the DPR and LPR. Hence the introduction of S300 to Odessa and Sakhasvilli – another chance to try and start a war with Russia. It is never ending sadly – until the uni-polar world is once and for all gone.
Rgds,
Veritas
Instant classic.
Can’t remember when i saw this short Starikov presentation for the first time. 6, 12 months ago? Simply brilliant. Worth watching a second time. Those who understand the central idea Starikov presents here, will know more about Geo-politics than most professors of history ever will.
Starikov answers the perennial question of how to respond to the strategy of ‘divide and conquer’, thesis and anti-thesis.
The answer is, create an anti-anti-thesis, that is a subdivision in the ‘divide’ part and the ‘conquer’ part can never happen.
For example:
What can China and Russia learn from the ‘Starikov thesis’ in the fight against our CIA-sponsored media darlings with such sexy fairy tales names like… al-Qaida, or Boko Haram, or ISIS ?
Instead of only trying to prevent ‘terrorist attacks’, these organizations have to be infiltrated and split from within. Let Boko fight against Haram and ISIS against ISIL.
ZWEISTEIN -Infighting already happening in Syria, hopefully soon on much large scale….
Thought the very same thing.
Some related factoids:
China has just made travelling to and from Taiwan visa-free. (‘Soft power’ fraternalism?)
A group of military experts from Israel (or. as Lebanese news calls it, the ‘Zionist Entity’ :)) consider ISIL of
Thought the very same thing.
Some related factoids:
China has just made travelling to and from Taiwan visa-free. (‘Soft power’ fraternalism?)
A group of military experts from Israel (or. as Lebanese news calls it, the ‘Zionist Entity’ :)) recently declared ISIL strategically beneficial as they weaken Arab unity through Muslim ‘in-fighting.’
They are a good deal more concerned about Hez bollah rocket capacity. No doubt well-placed moles in US Intel groups (CIA etc.) fed the line to arm and supply them via NATO to exactly that end.
(Israel itself is the ‘antithesis’ to Arab control in the M.E. as per the British/Rotschild’s post-WWII plan.)
Unfortunately the secret is out and the M.E. is wising up. Good leadership from Hezb. and Iran, as well as Assad’s loyalty-inspiring charisma is reaping dividends.
ps. The plane taking the Houthis and s
Popular Resistance negotiators to the UN-sponsored Yemeni peace talks with Hadi in Geneva was scheduled to stop in Saudi Arabia: they refused to embark. Seems like the UN is not viewed as trustworthy by them.
Wonder why;)?
what is M.E. ?
Middle East?
oh.
Very good. I completely agree with all his points. The only details he leaves out, are:
* The only way DPR/LPR can ever reunite with the rest of Ukraine, is for the Kiev government to be purged of Nazi American puppets, and Ukraine as a whole to reject American/EU/NATO schemes. Which can only happen via the violent overthrow of present Kiev power groups. Whether by the people alone, or the people plus armed forces doesn’t matter. That may happen eventually. Whether ‘soon enough’, who knows?
In the meantime, the Kiev junta’s behavior certainly serves as an eduction in the truly evil nature of US and other Western governments. To those with eyes and Internet, anyway.
* 2nd point. He barely mentions the financial/economic side, which pivots on the progressing collapse of the Western (Rothschild) fiat fractional reserve global banking scam. Once that is ended, America’s ability to play these stupid destructive, even Satanistic power games will be virtually eliminated.
The trouble is, many people hope for some kind of massive banking system implosion due to technical bankruptcy, un-repayable debt, etc, and think then the world will just switch to something more sensible. Gold-backed currency for instance. However I don’t think it’s going to work out that way. ‘Bankruptcy’ is a concept dependent on the Rule of Law. But that no longer exists, if it ever did at international levels.
What is going to happen is that world banking structures and the corporate/government organizations co-dependent on them are going to go outright lawless. They’ll drop any pretense of Rule of Law, and simply act however they see fit to prolong their existence. You can already see this beginning around the world with moves to outlaw cash, and implement ‘bank bail in laws’ (outright theft of depositor funds, as trialled in Cyprus.)
So, as a moral State, Russia has more problems than to maintain a balancing act in Ukraine. Russia should be preparing for a period of extreme international/corporate lawlessness. (MUCH worse than now.) Russia should be thinking like a Prepper/Survivalist. Laying in survival supplies, self defense weapons, and thinking very carefully about exactly what kind of pre-emptive violence may be necessary and justified for effective self defense against ‘roving bands of thugs.’ Also preparing to deal effectively with backstabbing from ‘close family’ (of the 200 years together kind.)
Slightly off topic, I still think one cruise missile with a smallish nuclear warhead targeted on the current Bilderbergers conference would make a huge positive difference to the world’s future. Bonus points if it looked like ISIS (a CIA creation) fired it.
your correct with it all. however as i have attempted to point out here a few times with no response the ru Central bank is a division of the fed reserve, it’s not independent, it has the usual masters. same real boss as my canada or the us or all western nations, they are the supreme level of govt.
I don’t entirely agree with him regarding his ‘anti’ thesis, he uses facts to fit that, rather than theory to fit the facts. For instance, it has been admitted by the USG that Ukraine is part of a 25 year plan (and $5 billion+ spent on Ukraine) in Eastern Europe of American dominance, in line with the original wolfowitz doctrine and PNAC.
crystal clear… precise!
spreading around…
thanks!
Pragmstism, that is the point, any other word does not matters.
Exactly.
It has just occurred to me while listening to this excellent commentary by Starikov.Very smart man.
It is time to take a different approach.
Declare LPR/DPR real Ukraine and rest of the territory occupied by fascists and western supporters.
Than they would be fighting for the freedom of the whole Ukraine and all the people living there,and not just independence from Kiyev.And keep that mantra going forward.Figt for freedom of Ukraine from Nazies all over again.This would fit perfectly with Moskow plan,and free Ukraine of Nazies and west.
Good idea Branko. Call Novorussian Ukraine and the current Ukraine, something like US Lapdog or similar. IN fact, I have wondered why Russia cannot flood air and tv waves with the type of information the Saker puts out (and to some extent) Russia Today. Also bringing out the internal crimes of the Exceptional Nation, which, I am sure, most Ukranians ignore. So that Ukrainian people may get an idea of what their current puppets have in mind, by way of imitation.
I didn’t watch video, but can comment: Lots of happening on the ground was not planned, and happened chaotically, sometime even spontaneously. But, the final Russia goal is to make Ukraine Federal state outside NATO. That doesn’t suit West though (who don’t really care for democracy and legitimate requests of Russian minority in Ukraine), and they will push Kyiv regime into further excalation. At the moment we are seeing a waiting game by LNR/DNR. The longer they wait, Ukraine sinks deeper. They do not have enough power to defeat Kyiv on thei own. The only chance of Kyiv is to escalate war with republics, perhaps even with Transnistria, to get more $$ help from West. They will push hard in this direction.
So, we will see bigger war coming soon. Russia will NOT let republics collapse. What/where all of this is going is anyone’s guess now. I hope there will be some cold heads out there. In case Russia is forced to intervene, the history tells us that it tends to use brute force vs. hi-tech precision modern warfare. If it happens, relationship with West will be permanently ruined (said mildly), and we might enter new era that is even hard to imagine, such as new global split (hope not war). Will be interesting to watch if EU survives & keep its unity.
Interestings (dangerous and difficult) times are coming our way.
Dittos Peter,
Dittos Solon,
Exactly my thoughts as well.
Starikov could not have put it any better. The process by which the AZ Empire will be dealt with is unfortunately a brutal one. Even more worrying is the high probability that there are still lots of battles to fight. The world isn’t getting free from western imperialism that easy.
Hello Saker,
Thanks for giving us this clip of Starikov. I followed up with other clips of his and I am so impressed by his clear vision. It is great for him to be educating the Russian public about the danger they face.
The comments here have also been great. I am very grateful to all of you
Christine
In nutshell: “We Russians will be unemotionally using you Novorussians like dishrags for as long as you can stand it”. But what happens in 2 years when there aren’t so many Novorusskies around anymore? Will anything have changed, other than more crumpled up cities and willages? Kiev will be rescued again and again by US Monsanto and John Deer types, but who will rescue Novorussia? The ‘users’ in Moskva?
I understand your feeling, Zingo, and I take to make my comment.
Yes, totally strategic and pragmatic, but already Novorussians´struggling take more than a year. Has anyone thought they could very well get tired? Surely they will not and draw strength from weakness, because they are defending their land and have no other place to go but would be fine them not lacking anything there either.
Let someone in the Kremlin, for example Starikov, (which it seems is the spokesman for Putin?) to deal with than the babushkas and children in the basement do not lack anything so that their relatives in the militia do not have nothing to reproach.
Also that militias do not lack anything militarily because they are defending all the Slavic world and, indeed, IMO, everyone in general.
Otherwise it would be desirable that, another person, for example Surkov, take care that no more heroes of Novorussia die and that those guilty of the murders that have been committed appear and justice be done.
Some responsible for economy, for example Dvorkovich, could be responsible that the widows and children of fallen lack nothing.
This to begin.
And when this is over, if it ends one day and not end us, the people, before, they deserve to have their socialist state, as visioned by dear Mozgovoi, whatever suits them to Starikov, Surkov or Dvorkovich or anyone in the Kremlin.
I see Catherine Austin Fitts has this video posted at her blog….this is the best explanation I have heard of why the Russians don’t just take Donbass under their wing. Thanks dear Saker.
Very good analysis; and enlightening.
However, there must be a plan to “win” or at least to “end” the crisis. Supporting the DPR/LPR just enough to keep them in the struggle is not enough. The civil populations of these areas are emotionally and physically exhausted, and are suffering more each day. They should not be left to pay the price and to render the sacrifice for the sake of Russia.
Russia has to come up with a way to restore peace, and then ultimately prosperity to these regions. This will not be possible until the Ukrainians suffer a significant military defeat, which would make it all too obvious to the vast majority of the Ukrainian business elites in the country that the fighting must stop.
Can Russia organize, train, equip two armored corps of separatists? Can the Russian military effectively “advise”/ direct the DPR/LPR military operations at a distance, in order to break through the lines of contact, and then to win a mobile mechanized battle that would effectively break the Ukrainian army? Can these forces reclaim the rest of the territories of Donetsk and Lugansk currently occupied by the Kiev forces? Can they liberate Kharkov and also open a land corridor to Crimea?
If they can, they can offer to negotiate from strength, and to argue for a renewed Ukraine made up of largely self-governed regions (including a “haven” for the Galician Nazis around Lvov).
If they can’t, Russia must continue to provide them the means to gain and hold a buffer zone that would keep their population centers beyond the reach of the Ukrainian military; and then to integrate their economies -if not their politics- into the Russian Federation.
Cassad appears to be getting a little fed up with the Starikov point of view and when someone as even-handed as cassad starts finding problems, that’s not good. He points out that:
. . . when people see day after day, for example to reach the promise of Kiev, and the next day the offer to become part of Ukraine, on what other reaction is calculated agitators for Minsk, hard to say. This could work well, a month, well, two, but when trying to prolong this line to the end, the output is a natural reaction related to the complete lack of understanding of what is happening and decadent mood. This is about the same as in the late Soviet Union, when people are overfed monotonous propaganda style “and so come down.”
Cassad also mentions a demonstration in Donetsk in which the residents are asking the DNI to “protect them from the APU and launch an offensive on the Ukrainian army.” “Someone needs to drive away the Ukrainian army from residential areas, others – to step on the Ukrainian army on all fronts,” – commented on the situation, being on the scene, the reporter. About 200 people: they are admonished to observe the “Minsk format” . No clear position from the audience, nor the representatives of the NPT…. At 13:30 the protesters came Alexander Zakharchenko. He tried to calm people down. ”
from recent articles “News: “Minsk-3″ will return Ukraine Donbass an autonomy” and “From the Soviet Information” (machine translated.)
Just sayin’…
Agreed!!
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At this point, we can only guess the answer by looking at the information available, which is why I believe that within a year there will be decisive changes in Donbass and Ukraine.
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