The road to Raqqa, capital of the phony ISIS/ISIL/Daesh “Caliphate”, will continue to be a riddle wrapped inside an enigma at least until the US Presidential elections. Let’s examine why.
by Pepe Escobar for Sputnik news
The loose combo known as Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by the Kurdish YPG alongside its women’s brigade, the YPJ, are trying to advance against Daesh north and now also west of Raqqa.The key target is Tabqa, west of Raqqa. Tabqa is crucial because it links Raqqa with Daesh positions near Aleppo — where an embryonic Mother of All Battles is gearing up. Conquering Taqba itself will be no mean feat as it implies the SDF forces crossing the Euphrates River, which happens to be a red line imposed by Turkey’s Sultan Erdogan.
Embedded with the SDF advance is a massive P.R. operation deployed by Washington, involving a hilarious controversy on American boots on the ground. President Obama has always repeated non-stop there would not be US boots on the ground in Syria. The State Department parroted the White House line. But boots — as many as 250 — are indeed on the ground, even as they may disguise themselves with YPG insignia.The Pentagon maintains they are only acting in an “advise-and-assist” role — as in trademark Obama “leading from behind” format. The boots are in fact Special Forces specialized in UW (unconventional warfare). Yet the theater of war — as established by Daesh — is quite conventional. Daesh is constituted as a small army, with heavy armor and considerable artillery, against which UW is meaningless.
The lame duck Obama administration — whose Syria “policy” hardly deviates from the “Assad must go” mantra — is trying to convey the impression for US public opinion that it is actively fighting Daesh. Yet this is a fiction. With no considerable “coalition” air power (apart from some bombing of Daesh targets south of Ain Issa) and no sizeable troops, no “leading from behind” will yield a US victory in Raqqa.
The election battlefield
It’s enlightening that the offensive on Raqqa got the go-ahead only after CENTCOM Commander Gen. Joseph Votel traveled to Kobani, in Syria, and Ankara. Yet CENTCOM only gave the green light to a partial operation — vetoing the YPG plan to go after the key border town of Jarablus, one of Daesh’s only remaining revolving doors to Turkey. That’s because the Pentagon refuses to confront a NATO ally’s red line.This is not even about taking over Raqqa; the SDF does not have the manpower and the resources. As SDF commander Abu Fayyad put it, this is mostly about liberating the region north of Raqqa.
Syrian Kurds though simply won’t resign themselves to not advance on Jarablus; their strategic priority for months has been to try to open a corridor between their cantons in Kobani and Afrin. While commanders insist Washington would not interfere were that to happen — and that’s highly debatable — they also point out that the lame duck Obama administration wants a “victory” in Raqqa (as well as Mosul in Iraq) before the November presidential election.
So this is what it’s all about; a “gift” from the foreign policy-handicapped Obama administration to Hillary Clinton, assuming she survives the subterranean email server scandal.
As for the Syrian Kurds, even if they were able to conquer Raqqa with “leading from behind” assistance — again highly debatable, as Daesh will fight to the death with all its firepower — they would not be able to clear and hold it. Raqqa is a Sunni Arab city. The SDF could hardly transfer enough resources to Raqqa without compromising its defense of Rojava.
Once again, “on the road to Raqqa” is being sold in the US essentially as a P.R. stunt, as in “we’re fighting to win”. Perversely, the P.R. stunt also carries the embedded element of a possible trap to Damascus. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) is very much focused on trying to secure Palmyra for good — as well as multiple supply lines, oil and gas fields, small regional airbases to be used by Russian helicopters, and trying to close multiple remaining pockets of surrounded “moderate” rebels and/or jihadis. That’s a lot of work. There’s no way the SAA will overextend itself and make a play for Raqqa.
The bottom line is that for Damascus — as well as for Moscow — Raqqa is a non-issue, for now. A much more worrying scenario is Aleppo, where Sultan Erdogan’s mercenaries, weaponized and paid-for, are gearing up for the Mother of All Battles.
The game plan
Assuming an — unlikely — scenario of Syrian Kurds managing somehow to conquer Raqqa, it’s not hard to forecast the follow-up, whoever wins in November. Washington will make Raqqa its own satrapy and invest — once again — in Divide and Rule; creating a joint Kurd/Sunni Arab vassal state within Syria, along the Euphrates.
So those “advise-and-assist” boots on the ground are in fact the vanguard for a complex game plan — through which Washington, if successful, would be able to cut off that fiction much entertained by the petrodollar gang — the Shi’ite crescent — as well as weaken a fragmented Syria for the foreseeable future.
“NATO ally” Turkey though will pose a tremendous problem to the US game plan. There’s no way Ankara under Sultan Erdogan will abolish its Syrian Kurd red lines. Quite the contrary; Sultan Erdogan is doubling down. Erdogan is avidly betting on Jabhat al-Nusra — being bribed by Turkish operators to extricate itself from al-Qaeda — to wreak further havoc in Syria in the Aleppo front.And one should not — ever — forget the gas; after all Syria is an energy war. Syria’s gas reserves happen to lie mostly between Raqqa and Deir Ez-Zoor. It’s not hard to fathom many a US Big Oil player salivating as these reserves may one day be under proxy US control.
Which brings us to the key question; how will Moscow crack the Raqqa riddle? Here’s another riddle — inside an enigma.
Mr. Escobar can wait ’til the cows come home; there won’t be a response from Moscow. The play in Syria is not a play on a chessboard. Besides there is another red line: Russia must not cross (offend) the USA.
I have one question that keeps bugging me.
In regards to Syria and Assad, if the USA really wanted him out of the picture, couldn’t they just kill him in some way? They have spec ops, drone , sophisticated weapons, CIA under cover mumbo jumbo? I do not see what keeps them from trying something like that , if they really want to take him out. Can someone please shed some light ?
I’m told there have been attempts, and when I disbelieved this source & report, a credible Swedish friend with family and ties to some senior military types in Syria was adamant that there was truth to the report :
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/05/16/french-arrested-in-assad-assassination-attempt/
Besides that, I’ve wondered if ZioStan figure it is better to have Syria bleeding into eternity, fragmented over time into small weak sectarian Bantustans and Pres al Assad eventually deposed … because he has enormous popularity, is the protector of Christians and all minorities, has given refuge to 10 000’s Palestinians, Iraqis and more besides……
An assassination could possibly provoke a very long blood vendetta of Syrians, Hezbollah, Iraqi’s etc directed against the vile little criminal colony?
unwritten rule, the elites dont kill the elites, once that starts happening via assasinations all bets are off, Obama would have a hole in his head withing the month, and then why not Killary before she even gets elected .. you see where that games ends? No, the elites are the elites, they bribe and cajole and use spec forces to force some local off the grid nitwit to do it, even pursuade, like Oswald, but its a zero sum game so at the end of the day, the elites stick together and screw everyone else over. Theyd rather have a war where millions die than start bumping each other off, its how unenlightened they are .. still. basically afraid of death, a refusal to admit their own mortality .. pea brained and immature. we die they live.
Now that was a homespun theory if ever I saw one: “the elites dont kill the elites”. You did make it up yourself, didn’t you?
Tell it to Saith Gaddafi.
Or Chavez, Allende, Lumumba, Castro, De Gaulle, etc.
Anonymous at 12:12 am would have been correct if he or she qualified “elite” politicians as being the hired puppets on the strings of the dark occult priesthood that runs them and is coming more and more out of the closet, or should I say out of the tunnel?? /wanna-see-the-new-european-homo-erotic-culture/comment-page-1/#comment-247553
The Empire compliant puppets who try but fail are safe. Their masters want them all to compete for their evil favor, without fear, unless they get some crazy idea of benefiting their populations and turning on their masters….. Then their days are very much numbered. But once rotten enough to get the controller’s seal of approval and be let into the club, put on the take, and owned, none that I know of have ever turned good.
Assad and Putin are definitely not approved of and are marked men who must stay alive on their own resources and security, always on high alert. That was a strange idea, that “Assad” is “one of them”.
As soon as JFK refused to be blackmailed by the Mob or manipulated by the Dulles Brothers, he was considered a danger and was marked for elimination. Another interesting case is George Wallace. If he had stayed a polarizing racist, he probably never would have been shot. If you find yourself improving, increase your life insurance.You are not safe from any high level attempt on your life unless you are a scumbag puppet who can be counted on to do nothing good.
I have heard he has survived no less than 600 attempts.
But the ‘evil Assad ‘ meme is no longer plausible: if he was assainated, it would be extremely difficult for the U S to deny any involvement, or the other colonial powers – UK , France or Saudi , turkey or Israel.
It would be just short of a casus belli for the Russians and likely ignite a region wide uprising. The consequences cannot be ‘ gamed’ and are too unpredictable to risk for rational actors who seek gains without personal consequences.
Since no Western politician inspires loyalty, they are always at risk from their own security apparatus – any element can go ‘ rogue’ for the right price, and they are even more at risk from each other.
No honor among thieves, or loyalty among psychopaths.
Dear Pepe,
Thanks for another great piece.
You sum it all up about the “race for Raqqa”.
Your last question – is something I have been pondering on too – “how will Moscow crack the Raqqa riddle?”. As you rightly say – the Syrian Army will be focused on Aleppo where everything is building up. Watching this with interest.
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160602/1040649533/syrian-army-deir-ezzor.html
An interesting article – The Syrian Army plans to advance on the city of Deir ez-Zor in the country’s east, the last large Syrian city completely blocked by Daesh …….
Just look at Fallujah in Iraq – the US/allies are suddenly concerned about civilians/children? Is this a sick joke? Just when the Iraqi army is winning it back………A nation obsessed with PR not facts! A nation who can’t win but won’t let others take their glory. A nation wanting to control energy resources (including water) globally. A nation obsessed with being number one – at all costs. A broken nation.
So, it is all about gas (and usually oil).
And what about a real value for future: http://journal-neo.org/2016/05/27/the-eternal-power-of-water-time-and-mother-russia/
Indeed it is all about destroying Russia. So please, real Russian patriots do not ever relax, be ready…
Very good article by Andrew Korybko
1.http://orientalreview.org/2015/10/14/the-race-for-raqqa-and-americas-geopolitical-revenge-in-syraq-i/
2.http://orientalreview.org/2015/10/14/the-race-for-raqqa-and-americas-geopolitical-revenge-in-syraq-ii/