by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
Contrary to Western doom and gloom interpretations, China’s two sessions now taking place in Beijing offer a fascinating mix of realpolitik and soft power. Every year, the two sessions involve the National People’s Congress (NPC) – the legislative body – and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) – the political advisory body – laying down the Chinese equivalent of the state of the union.
Premier Li Keqiang’s report acknowledged that Beijing foresees “graver and more complex” risks and “both predictable and unpredictable” challenges, with the conclusion that China must be “prepared to fight tough battles” in 2019. It was undiluted realpolitik.
An economic growth target in the range of 6.0% to 6.5% is still massive in terms of the expansion of global capitalism – irrespective of the usual suspects carping on about China “stalling” or mired “in deep crisis.”
A deficit-to-GDP ratio set at 2.8% – slightly higher than the 2.6% last year – is not exactly a problem for such a huge economy.
What’s quite intriguing is how “Made in China 2025” – the full designation – simply vanished from the 2019 Government Work Report.
Yet the policy remains – transmuted in the report on the expansion of “smart plus.” By extending tax cuts for manufacturers and small-business taxpayers, Beijing will keep driving no holds barred toward what Li defined as “building up a powerful manufacturing country” – from industrial development to tech innovation.
Prosperity, Sun Tzu-style
The Sun Tzu tweak is that Beijing will tone down promoting the Made in China 2025 drive in public. Yes, the Chinese are learning soft-power techniques – fast.
Beijing’s top targets remain, well, on target; to lift 30 million rural residents from poverty and to double per capita income by next year from a decade earlier, thus arriving at the cherished status of “moderately prosperous society.” By any measure, this is a groundbreaking achievement of historic proportions.
It’s virtually impossible for the West to understand the intricacies of how decisions are made in China. First you consult – broadly, vertically and horizontally. Then you reach a – strategic – consensus. The results are firmly set in annual meetings such as the two sessions and in detailed five-year plans.
The New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), are broadly planned all the way to 2049. We are still in the planning stage – implementation, officially, has not even started.
In parallel, geopolitical and geo-economic twists and turns are addressed by constant tweaks and tactical adjustments. That’s the “prepared to fight tough battles” emphasis on Li’s report.
And here lies the challenge posed by the Deng Xiaoping–conceived Chinese system to the mud wrestling of Western democracy. Terminology is irrelevant; call it “socialist democracy” with Chinese characteristics, what matters is if it works. For China.
Terminology actually matters – but only in a Chinese context. Take for instance dixian siwei – which can be loosely translated as grassroots thinking. You hold on to what you have, and rest on a solid foundation, and you stay “sober and strategically focused” when facing new challenges, in the words of President Xi Jinping, who has been using the concept widely. The concept is actually an upgrade of Deng’s “crossing the river while feeling the stones.”
From a Western point of view, what may be open to wide debate is the basis of the concept: “To fully adhere to the party’s political line.” Well, for better or for worse, there’s no other line in the market in terms of 21st-century China. Call it “keep calm and carry on” with Chinese characteristics.
‘Smart plus’ meets BRI
The very few informed China analysts with a Western background, such as Andy Rothman, are adamant: China won’t “collapse” any time soon. Rothman makes a pretty straightforward case: China has already structurally changed, a swift process that crystalized last year.
In a nutshell, economic growth is now driven by consumption, the economy is becoming less and less dependent on exports, and there’s no more pre-eminence of state investment.
And that leads us to the external vectors – and the role of BRI.
This is to a large extent a China goes West strategy. That’s how Beijing has conceptually framed this massive connectivity drive – increased connectivity across the Global South shields emerging markets everywhere from shocks provoked by what can only be construed as Western instability.
Minxin Pei, who now holds the chair in US-China relations at the Kluge Center of the Library of Congress, is among those accusing the BRI of sliding “into obscurity.”
Yet it’s not a question of “taking money away from Chinese pensioners to build a road to nowhere in a distant land,” as Pei wrote in the Nikkei Asian Review. It’s about BRI as the international partner of Made in China 2025.
And it’s about Beijing offering a unique path, for instance to Central Asian and Southeast Asian neighbors – the BRI as a framework for long-term sustainable development, and mixing industrial, agricultural and hybrid economic models.
And that explains why Beijing is becoming responsive to reconfiguring BRI projects in Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan or Sri Lanka.
Once again, it’s dixian siwei on the move. It’s as if Team Xi have been listening, softly, to that famous closed-door speech in September last year by Deng Pufang, Deng Xiaoping’s son. He urged China to “know its place” and not be “overbearing.” That is now translating into “keep calm and carry a ‘smart plus’ strategy.”
“prepared to fight tough battles”
“To fully adhere to the party’s political line.”
These statements indicate that there is significant opposition to Xi and his faction. Don’t forget that even though the Deng faction is in power and has been in power for around 40 years there is still a significant Maoist faction within the Chinese Communist Party.
Interesting times ahead.
In any large country, there are always going to be factions that oppose each other. This is true in the USA, Russia and China of course, as well as in most other nations. Thus, any government is going to be a coalition of some of these factions, and there will be an opposition that will be a coalition of other factions. Should one faction become strong enough to control the government on it own, then it will still be a governing coalition because other factions will want to be a part of that government.
Until someone repeals the basic laws of human nature, this will always be true.
There is only ONE faction that counts in the USA-the Servants of Zion, known in the UK and the West as the ”Friends’ of Talmudistan’.
Oh, say something interesting, please!!
Rich, if you see my name, simply pass by on the other side, lest I bore you to distraction.
China thought it had a soft power approach with the rest of the world. The Confucius Institutes were their reach out to other cultures and societies. Now the US is branding them spy nests and propaganda mills.
China has created a bank, AIIB, which has 60 or more nations participating, but it, too, is being attacked as a weapon of Chinese intended dominance.
China builds mega projects for other countries leaving them with bridges, ports, airports and a core of trained workers who learn as they work alongside Chinese employees. Infrastructure is crucial to development in emerging and developing nations. China provides those infrastructure constructions, usually with loans that no other development banks or nations will grant. China is accused of exploiting nations with these loans. Never mind that these nations own the infrastructure whether they pay the loan or exchange commodities for the loan payments.
China is the new bogeyman, as branded by the Hegemon. Almost laughable, isn’t it?
So now, Made in China 2025 has gone underground. The reality is Beijing and the millions of brilliant minds in China are not on the ten technologies of that program regardless if it is ever mentioned again.
The Chinese have seen right next door, Russia, built a military that today has weapons the US cannot defend against. It was done secretly. And then, since 2015, weapon system after weapon system sprung into daylight to shock Russian’s enemies.
The Chinese will develop AI, robotics, nanotechnologies, et al without much fanfare. They will be first in many of these items, and a very close second in the others. The US understands it is on its back foot. Thus, it must crush Huawei because US 5G is second to China’s. The Navy the PLA is amassing will soon dwarf the US Navy. The Chinese ships and boats also don’t have to be towed back to dock on initial launch like American ships.
And China is moving very swiftly in Space technologies. China will launch probes, satellites and mystery weapons in the coming year or two. The US is on a profit system (underwritten by NASA). The jump ahead of Russia and China in launches to the ISS is good pub for privatization, but it won’t get the Pentagon what it wants. China will get what it needs, despite the demonization of its technology.
China has found its sweet spot in creating and innovating. It’s millions of young minds are not staying in the West after school. In fact, many hundreds of thousands of the best are not even going to West universities any longer. It’s not safe for them, it’s not comfortable for them. Chinese are not welcome like they were before the Hegemon decided China was not a good second but actually wanted to be the best.
So, watch the key industries. It won’t have the label Made in China 2025. It won’t matter. China will be producing the leading edge and the best. Just like Russia did with what it needed. And when you have the best, the rest of the world comes shopping at your door.
If you have any doubts, look at the Chinese landing on the dark side of the moon. The planning, the placement of a satellite for communications relay, the probe design, the experiments, the results. Magnificent engineering and science. There’s much much more of that coming our way from China.
Pardon a typo in this sentence–The reality is Beijing and the millions of brilliant minds in China are not on the ten technologies of that program regardless if it is ever mentioned again.
The word “not” should be “now”. The reality is Beijing and the millions of brilliant minds in China are now on the ten technologies of that program regardless if it is ever mentioned again.
Larchmonter
Thanks for this concept of China seeing how Russia can create an entire new generation of weapons in secret, without the west’s knowing it in advance.
I have often pointed to the ways in which Russia fights its global war against the west in terms of paradigm change, rather than by reacting knee-jerk to each tactical action of the opponent – and how that paradigm change is also very often accomplished simply by example to the rest of the world. But I had never detected this one shining instance of how this might work.
Perfect illustration of the way it is done. Of course China sees Russia’s success, and studies this, and is now following the proven path. How do we know that China has shifted to the attack? By the fact that China appears to be doing nothing.
Brilliant strategy. And perfect for the waning empire with failing vision.
Grieved, while I am not arguing, I would like to point out that China got to this point only because “multinationals” decided to bless it “move its businesses” in order to:
1. get cheap labor
2. this was a price for destroying Soviet Union.
Russia, always had to “go it” alone. Even now, it provides China with technology in order to keep it on its side.
And China knows it that the only country that can save it is Russia, or they can help each other.
Russia provides energy (pipeline gas and LNG), water, wheat, and military weapons systems that are vital to China’s prosperity and security.
China is a spineless geopolitical power. Russia gives it spine. (I don’t want this misunderstood. China has character and purpose and resolve. But in the big picture items of geopolitics vs the Hegemon, China retreats and hides. Look at Syria. (and Libya and Iraq where China had huge investments and on-going projects, all lost). Look at Venezuela. Russia is standing up. China is hiding.
Close to home, China would make a stand (over South China Sea, Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Taiwan. The Diayou Islands vs Japan? Maybe. North Korea vs US, definitely, but it would have Russia with it.)
China would have to capitulate to the Hegemon if not for Russia.
Russia would never capitulate to anyone.
The art of not understanding China…
“China would have to capitulate to the Hegemon if not for Russia. ”
Who has more power? The one wielding the tank, or the one providing all the necessary items for the ones building the tank? The Roman empire fell to a good part because they became slaves to their slaves and couldn’t transition out of their economic trap.
Without Russia, China would move closer and closer to the USA until a sudden stroke would reverse the positions. To illustrate this, my wife (actual Chinese) and I were watching the Three Kingdoms and one of the generals was trapped in a small city without food or water. My response “take what you need from the peasants – they’re just peasants – that’s what a western army would do!” Her response ‘Very stupid! How do you rule when you take the land? Lot’s of angry peasants – never forget! Better to take land and keep the peasants happy so you can earn the money!”
I’ve said this before and I will say this again, the oldest empires are the most deadly, and the most dangerous.
USSR Capitulated to the West. China simply watches; bides Her time and chooses her battles,same as Putin is doing. There`s so much dust in the International air right now, that it`d be premature to react until the USA gets done sinking Her own Ship which is happening now exponentially (if she only knew it). So blinded by the Light of the rest of the world She`s stumbling in the Dark chasing Her own @ down the ever decreasing concentric circles through the vortex of Oblivion. All anybody can do is endevour to avoid the same fate by association.
In Austfailia, a nation with a real talent for self-harm and self-abnegation, our ‘elites’, in contrast, are fastening themselves ever more securely to the dying Exceptionalist beast, while spitting in China’s face. This despite China having done NOTHING to harm us, and giving us 55 billion a year in trade surpluses, 1.3 million tourists a year and tens of thousands of students, who have made the areas around the universities the best places to eat in the cities. It’s called ‘The White Man’s Burden’ I believe.
Larch,
I always enjoy reading your post and very insightful. However, China and Russia do have their respective Big Country Sphere of influence.Syria is Russia’s sphere and not China’s. Syria is too far for China and much closer to Russia. I don’t think China lacks a backbone its that they are wise not to get too overstretched and involved in geopolitical issue that don’t effect them directly. It’s how they view the world and that is the same for Venezuela. They nor Russia, as of now, probably will assist the latter militarily. Both giants firmly adhere to non-interference of internal matters especially for countries that are too far away, regardless of their respective investments. they sink or swim. Intervention would fall into the trap that the US has set. It is a matter of geography. as you indicated China sphere is SE and east Asia and Russia has its. China does’t show hard power doesn’t mean it would “capitulate’ to the US. China would never capitulate to the US. They are too old of a Civilization, too big, and too powerful. they do things their way, their time. they been doing that very well continuously for thousands of years.
In the age of ecological collapse there is only one ‘sphere’ of influence, and that sphere is planet Earth. The USA desires to rule over it all, forever, extracting wealth from it for its insatiably avaricious and parasitic elites, while China and the sane world desire the sphere united and moderately prosperous, and living in an ‘ecological civilization’ a project that the Chinese, along with foreign collaborators, have been pursuing, unreported in the Western fakestream media. China and its friends are ‘humanity’s last, best, hope’, while the USA remains its last, worst, nightmare.
China and Russia have a great advantage over the USA in military research and development, in that the US system is utterly corrupt and gigantically wasteful, and operates as a great effluent pipe pumping trillions of public money into the bank accounts of the ruling parasites. This is part of the Reagan Doctrine of inflating deficits so greatly that they justify slashing public funding on all the decencies of a civilization, like infrastructure, health-care, education, culture etc. So the USA gets a multi-whammy of waste and social decay amidst burgeoning inequality, while China and Russia get better defence at a tiny fraction of the expense, and better societies to boot.
you know what?
I am afraid. I ´m a bit of scared.
My fear is broadviewing, worldwide in nature and solitary.
On TWO perilous, still unknown shadows rising up in the eastern horizon.
1st. How will the consumption level of a richer layer of humans behave when the Chinese get a superior living level: will it nearly destroy the planet ´s resources?
2nd. When the chinese interests, their worlwide kind of soaked stakes in every major society their sheer economic NEEDS turn into a web of do or die nature… what could the remainder planet inhabitants do except bowing to a hopefully benevolent ruler?
Well, let me put it clear I am not pre-fighting tomorrow s prospective world – i ´m just afraid of an unknown tomorrow.
Chinese do not plan for a higher, much less highest level of living. They aim for sustainable middle income. With 1.3 million people they realize they cannot achieve equality with the highest standard of the US (which happens to be falling in standards, ironically).
Unknowing tomorrow is the history of mankind. Nothing has changed. Why live your life with dread?
What the Chinese intend to do is work with all nations that seek to end poverty in their midst. By the time they achieve those goals, it will be close to the next century. Mankind will be moving off the planet. Moon, Mars, Space stations, Space Condos, and major modifications of continents due to Nature’s plans.
Typo–1.3 million should be 1.3 Billion people.
Pardon my error.
Question on US-dominated WWW and SWIFT. If Rus can disconnect from the WWW and still operate domestically and it has developed an alternative payment messaging system to SWIFT, what prevents them, and China, from at least disconnecting from SWIFT, if not the WWW?
The thing that fascinates me is that the Chinese have a system that does still seem to have at least some component of listening to their people. Even after 70 years. Its not exactly government of the people, by the people and for the people in concept, but at least the people still have at least some voice in the system.
I am more and more struck by the wisdom of old Benjamin Franklin in his speech giving his support for the then new US Constitution (that was to go on to be rejected by the American people). He basically said that any form of government was going to become corrupted in a few generations due to the general corruption of the people. And that this corruption of the people would lead to despotism as the only possible form of corrupt government for a corrupt people. https://www.usconstitution.net/franklin.html
Thus, I am a bit amazed that the Chinese have held on to some little bit of the people having a voice in their country and the government actually kinda sorta giving a dang after 70 years. For some who lives in the Land of the Free and its thoroughly corrupt society and its corrupt, despotic government of the oligarchs, by the oligarchs and entirely for the oligarchs, this is surprising to see. I wonder what it would be like to live in a country where the government gives a dang what the people think, and where the governments isn’t always trying to kill me, impoverish me, and drive me into virtual slavery?
Benjamin; I appreciate the wisdom of your comment. Particularly regarding the corruption of the people issue. However I must take issue with your observation that the Chinese system is not exactly a system of “government of the people by the people for the people.” According to my understanding any communist government that is authentic knows that it can only sustain itself by being precisely of the people, by the people, for the people. The Chinese have a very rich culture with a deep spiritual heritage. This gives them the cultural resources to collectively sustain resistance to systemic corruption. The Chinese government is doing precisely this. This has got a lot to do with why the capitalist West hates and fears them so much. The bourgeois West demands the freedom to be corrupt. They define freedom by the freedom to be corrupt. For this reason we are all bombarded incessantly with the desperate propaganda trope that communism is evil, and by definition a form of tyranny. Essentially communism is a form of functioning mass democracy that successfully finds its way to some form of sustainable institutional complexity. For this to work it must have a sustainable spiritual and cultural foundation. China has this, and the rest of the world struggles to finds its way to such a balance. The propaganda produced by the Anglo-Zionist ruling class to obscure this point is massive and most people find it very hard to resist such an onslaught. We all live inside a highly organized “matrix” of lies designed to hide this essential truth.
All governments are scared $htlist of their people especially those governments that heve seen revolts time and again,so, ultimately, they are forced to listen. The USA being so “exceptional” hasn`t had the history of revolutions that European and Asiatic countries have ( at least not for quite awhile) : that`s why their foreign policies are so juvinile and immature as are their domestic policies becoming. They don`t listen to their wise minorities or anybody else: blinded by greed and egoistic hubris. Their time`s a comin. That “Slow Train Comin Round the Bend”
Karma is a b*tch along with arrogance mixed with a whole lot of ignorance. Sorry to say as an American our country needs to be taught a lesson of humbleness. Yes, we never experienced modern chaos as those older countries have. We got LUCKY (US) geographically separated by two Oceans and, as a results, we build a false sense of superiority, this disease of ignorant exceptionalism. Post WWII, most of the west and east was devastated… we were given this power by default and soon it will change hands.then and only then, we will be humbled.
Benjamin, the Chinese Government ceaselessly polls is people in order to sample the public will, and they enact policy, one city or region at a time, often with competing programs, to judge their efficacy in increasing the common wealth and health of society. In the West, in TOTAL contrast, politicians are owned, completely, by the rich parasites, and do their bidding, and, as the Gilens and Page study showed in the USA, and as commonsense and experience tell us, the proles have no say in governance whatsoever. They are just the dumbed down and brainwashed partisans in the increasingly fractious and hateful sham of ‘liberal democracy’, a.k.a ‘Divide and Rule’.