Here is an open thread for the Saker community to discuss current events. Photo is of Turkish armor moving to Syrian border … webmaster
Saker Message:
Here is an open thread for the Saker community to discuss current events. Photo is of Turkish armor moving to Syrian border … webmaster
It seems that the Turks & the Saudis will have to come in and replace ISIS in eastern Syria, with NATO providing air-cover.
I say, let them come.
With Russia beefing-up her presence in Syria, and China (and Iran) waiting in the wings, it would suit us just fine if the NATO-GCC Alliance of Degenerates made their little cowardly butts exposed.
Perfect opportunity for creating a cauldron out of them of epic proportions in subsequent months or years.
You couldn’t make this up! The Pentagon tells Russia it can’t arm its jets with air to air missiles:
http://tass.ru/en/defense/840554
Well maybe if u and your NATO stooges didn’t attack an unarmed jet and killed 2 Russian armed forces this wouldn’t have happened…
And the Saudi’s are now deciding whom to invite to a peace meeting in Rhiyad:
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151201/1031052181/syrian-opposition-in-riyadh.html
The Germans are joining but refuse to share intel with Russia too – illegal but hey – that’s NATO for you.
http://tass.ru/en/world/840648
Open Thread: Welcome back, Saker in time for more fireworks. See below Marc Slevoda on Crosstalk
https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/323904-turkey-russia-jet-syria/
and re: family dynamics: this, too, shall pass.
That was an interesting Crosstalk. Marc Slevoda said the same thing I’ve been worried about. That he believes Turkey is going to invade Northern Syria. Using as cover the false claim that they are “closing the border”. If that happens,what will Russia do? I thought that the program “implied” that Russia and her allies would stop them militarily if they did. Things are not looking good again.
On another related note. The Pilot’s remains have now been returned to Russia for burial. They were met by the Defense Minister,other officials,and an honor guard. A squadron of Fighter Jets escorted the plane with the body after it entered Russian airspace.
It was a dead cert from Day 1 of the Russian Air Campaign that NATO would somehow try and establish a foothold inside Syria, since their Jihadi death squads are now increasingly a burning card.
This is no surprise whatsoever, and I am sure that the Russians/Iranians/Chinese were expecting it.
Trust me, there will be ways to get NATO out of there. It won’t be easy, it won’t be pretty, but it can and will happen.
I hope to God so.
Not sure…
Turkey is important because if it’s location ( being close to Russia) and it being able to control the black Sea fleet via bosporus.
Turkey knows it and it’s using nato as a backstop to run its campaign.
Even if all the rest of euro nato members smartens up the US will want to retain turkey.
If turkey strikes first ( as it had already done with the su24) it’ll be a real test or death knell for nato as I see some euro members hesitate if sh1t gets real.
Russia will allow turkeyto strike first, then act appropriately. Mr Putin and his Generals know exactly what is going on and are ready for them.
The French and Great Britain participation to the Bombing in Syria , is jut a ruse to have a say , after ISIS’s defeat , on the make up of the government os Syria . Russia must watch carefully those Zionist agents that they do not bomb the Syrian Army . If Turkey invades North Syria what those Zionist ” friends ” do ?
It must be remembered that Cameron is a Jew and two consecutive French Presidents are Zionists if not crypto Jews . Their loyalty is to the Apartheid State First of all and last to Great Britain and France . Those people do not think twice about sacrificing ” Goyims ” to keep the ” Greater Israel Dream ” alive .
Any Turkish incursion into Syria will be carpet bombed into obliteration. Given how upset the Russians are over losing one of their pilots the Turks would have to be completely insane to give them any target in Syrian territory. Not saying it won’t happen but they will be bombed.
The Russian response will be something sly and not to subtle like “If it is that important to the Turks then let them set up a safe zone in Turkey”.
It’s odd that Lavelle has been ignoring Pepe Escobar on the shoot-down issue, but I guess he can’t put Mark Sleboda, Dmitry Babich, and Pepe Escobar on the same program for whatever reason.
Next to Saker, I rely on Pepe for accurate, in depth reporting
Robert Fisk is a man to rely on –
70,000 Moderate Fighters in Syria? It’s Another Cameron Photoshop –
http://www.commondreams.org/views/2015/11/29/70000-moderate-fighters-syria-its-another-cameron-photoshop
Pepe is in a much different time zone.
Since this is an open thread!
One of the ideas,that (if they are able to accomplish it) would be very appealing to most of the World’s nations. Russia and China want the multi-polar World to be free to set their own courses. Unlike the US that wants World domination,Russia and China envision a World where nations can be neutral if they don’t want to side with anyone. They aren’t required to accept control from another nation. We haven’t seen that since before WW2,at least. That was partially true during the early part of the Cold War,but quickly disappeared. And the post-Cold War era has been one long attempt of the US to trying enforce its domination Worldwide on all nations.
It was called NAM.. With like over 100 countries in it. But the strongest countries in it was too reluctant to do much so fell apart. It was started by Tito.. The UN was supposed to protect the defenseless nations.. Then we find out it was run by the empire itself..
There used to be a Non-Aligned-Movement nations, but somehow this body seemed to have disappeared over the past decade from any kind of headlines.
The Non-Aligned Movement still is a voting group in the United Nations.
http://www.nti.org/treaties-and-regimes/non-aligned-movement-nam/
I think there has been a concerted effort to sideline the general assembly in favour of considering the security council the only significant UN body. The general assembly votes against the US frequently, so they want it ignored.
The NAM is I think still influential in general assembly votes, but nobody pays those votes any attention so . . .
Indeed, a multipolar world is a safer and more peaceful world for everyone. I fear that the danger of Russian intervention in Syria will be at least a temporary defeat for multipolarity. I understand the need to intervene in Syria to prevent another AngloZionist scorched earth like Iraq, but I am not sure that Russia is ready to fight on so many fronts at this time simultaneously and alone. The conflict between Turkey and Russia has most likely been engineered to scuttle energy infrastructure projects like Balkan Stream. But the key to an eventual multipolar world is the development of more Eurasian infrastructure. Furthermore Russia and Turkey must absolutely resist the mutual tension brought about through AnglioZionist manipulation. Friends of the Empire one year are labelled enemies in the next, and Sultan Erdogan could be next after Assad.
Yes, but Iran has sent ground troops, plus didn’t China send a war ship to Mediteranean?
I don’t think China did (at least not to take part in the ISIS conflict). I think the ship they sent was only for temporary joint maneuvers with Russia. I’m not positive,but I believe I saw something about that months ago.
Hi Uncle Bob 1, just came in a pingback to Saker´s site which were including that comment of yours about Stalin. I thought you would like to know.
Here is the link: https://piotrbein.wordpress.com/2015/12/02/stalin-not-so-bad-by-comparison/
Thank you,glad to know.
Russia considers all nonsecular rebels and those receiving foreign military support as legitimate targets in Syria
Russian #Su34 jets get air-to-air missiles first time since start of operation in #Syria
Russia PM says Russia could expand sanctions on #Turkey if needed
https://twitter.com/FGunay1/status/671233508610867200
Russia has killed almost 500 IS, France like 50 and US says they have killed over 22,000 IS members.. bwhahahahahahahahaha the bullchitter in chief of centcom says IS is running because of the US and not because of the shia militias kicking butt.. Does that 22,000 include the 6 children they bombed in aug? Or the Iraqi military? All the bugs and roaches? As usual, exceptional, where they take credit for everything… Won against Nazi Germany or we would all be speakth some yuropean thingy.. Won over Japan.. Won korea Vietnam, Iraq, grenada, Afghanistan, Hawaii…
Heck Obhama even takes credit for training IS as the best terrorist army in the world..
Exceptional..
Remains of #Su24 pilot killed in #Syria arrive in #Russia
https://twitter.com/MEChannelLive/status/671361460526821377
https://twitter.com/MEChannelLive/status/671351967801831424
In Turkey, we have seen where the bar association president, Tahir Elci, in the southeastern province of Diyarbakir was gunned down while giving a speech. RT has been following it up, see below:
https://www.rt.com/news/323826-turkey-kurdish-lawyer-killed/
But elsewhere you’d be hard pressed to see it prominently covered. For the MSM, it is being ignored or mentioned in passing.The BBC carried it to the sidelines with headings like :
”Turkey PM pledges justice after pro-Kurdish lawyer shot” : The BBC’s Mark Lowen in Turkey says government supporters are blaming the PKK for the attack while opponents blamed Turkish nationalists.
Compare this to when Nemtsov was murdered. From the get go, the BBC had screaming headlines casting aspersion at the Kremlin and hinting that Putin was personally complicit. Take a look:
Russia opposition politician Boris Nemtsov shot dead :http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31669061
Who killed Russia opposition politician Boris Nemtsov?: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31693234
Nemtsov daughter: Putin ‘politically’ to blame for murder: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31842858
Boris Nemtsov murder: Tens of thousands march in Moscow : http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31677506
There were protests in Istanbul and elsewhere after the killing but the BBC hardly made mention of them.
The double standards, lies, deception and duplicity that casually emanate from these outfits would put Goebbels to shame.
Russia Insider has an article on Russian support to the YPG ( sister organization to PKK). My warning is not in a few years when the battle is won to turn these folks over to a popular front with the N. Iraqi Kurds ( just remember what the Kuomintang did in Shanghai to the cadre there and the disaster of Indonesia with the CIA backed and directed the massacre of hundreds of thousands ). Please.
http://russia-insider.com/en/game-just-changed-russia-aligns-kurdish-fighters-take-down-turkey/ri11549
Ajazeera is promoting the meme of civilian casualties caused by Russian bombing in Syria.
So, on Xinhuanet.com, the Chinese wire service portal, there is an article.
It takes the report of the clown in England (one man, who is the only reporter quoted all over the Western world by media as if he were on the ground everywhere in Syria). Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is this one man who observes everything from England.
Anyway, here’s the score: 1500 killed, 485 civilians. A 2:1 ratio of dead terrorists to dead civilians.
Now look at the Iraq War conducted by the US. 1:2 ratio of dead Iraqi soldiers to dead civilians.
Look at at WWII and you see 1:2 ratio of dead Nazis versus dead civilians.
So the Russians, even if you accept this bogus “report”, are four times more accurate with their bombing than the US or allies were with their offensives. And the US keeps accusing the Russians of using vastly inferior gravity bombs versus the US high tech, super duper laser guided bombs and missiles.
The pathetic West, liars and deviants can’t even get a bogus human rights report to work for them. And of course, the terrorists are forcing civilians into the line of fire and controlling the cities and villages into targets by launching their own long range artillery from locations filled with civilians.
By the way, no one in the four and half years of the war has accounted for the totals of civilians killed by the holy coalition and the terrorists. All casualties are accounted for as Assad’s murder list. You will never hear a word that 200,000 have died by the acts of the US, the Arabs, the NATO bombings, Turkey and all the various takfiri head choppers and liver eaters.
So, on with the war. Russia needs to do more bombing and move that artillery forward. Slaughter and liquidate them all. The civilians, as in all wars, are collateral as in every war. Though now, the tide has changed. The Russian accuracy and Intel is 4x superior to the Exception Coalition and god knows how much better than the terrorists who have no regard for any life.
War, once begun, is attrition of the enemy and all his resources. That is why war is fought upon the heads and bodies of civilians. They are considered part of the logistical support, shielding and ultimate recruits for the enemy. War is hell, by definition. It can never be just or neat. It is hell on earth. And Russia is bringing hell to the devils.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-11/30/c_134870579.htm
Sadly, the US see itself as the sovereign exception, the one that stands outside all laws while (somehow) being indispensable for the law.
worth a read to stay on top of the complexity of it all
http://russia-insider.com/en/ukraine-syria-complex/ri11540
Syrian ,Quatar, Iranian gas oil etc
regional and geopolitical significances
extract “At the overlap points, alternating knots of conflict are formed which — after they’ve been broken up and used — are generally left unresolved as whole, or they remain as half-frozen deferred conflicts. Only to name the last few: the day before yesterday [it was] Moldova [and] Georgia; yesterday the Ukraine; today Syria and the entire “Crescent.” Maybe tomorrow [it will be] the North Pole, whose territorial claim provides the start [of a new conflict] for those already driving their marked stakes into the ground.
As different as these conflicts are, there’s one constant variable, a common thread that runs through all of them: the containment of Russia as a potential rival for the US, who still sees itself as the only world power. The possible conflict with China, India, and other countries that might connect themselves to Russia is lurking in the background.”
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reminders:
https://www.rt.com/news/323992-russia-syria-air-missile/
Rus planes now have air to air missiles, gonna set up second airbase in Syria, bombproof plane shelters already there,
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Turkey increases supply to terrorists
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151130/1030994441/turkey-support-terrorists-syria.html
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did Erdogan meet Putin at G20….wearing a stab proof vest either of them?
PARIS, November 30. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin is not planning to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Paris on the sidelines of the UN climate conference, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.
“The meeting with Erdogan (in Paris) is not planned, this meeting is not being discussed. There will be no such a meeting,” Peskov told reporters.
Peskov stressed that no other contacts with the Turkish leader, including a phone conversation, are included in Putin’s schedule.
But Putin saves the world a little bit more
“PARIS, November 30. /TASS/. Russia has over-fulfilled its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, with its greenhouse gas emission cuts comparable with the annual volume of atmospheric pollution by all the countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at an UN conference on climate change in Paris on Monday.
“We have over-fulfilled our commitments under the Kyoto Protocol,” the Russian leader said.
Russia will reduce harmful emissions by 70% compared to 1990 — Putin
According to Putin, in 1991-2012, “Russia not only prevented an increase in greenhouse gas emissions but also considerably reduced them. ”
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n his piece, published in the arch-conservative online magazine American Thinker, Canto noted that “the Turkey-Russia feud raises a few questions about the future of NATO,” with cracks in the alliance over how to respond to Ankara’s aggression factually giving Russia an “opportunity to prick the NATO balloon.”
Suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin “has been trying to downsize NATO for some time,” the broadcaster noted that the Turkish attack, together with other issues, including the war against Daesh (ISIL), has given the Russian leader an opening: Putin, according to Canto, doesn’t have to “blow up NATO…He simply watches NATO blow up itself [by being forced] to work together.”
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/analysis/20151130/1030995942/russia-nato-alliance.html#ixzz3szgz7LzF
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increased tanks, military by Ukr in Donbass- greatly increased risk of an attack-provocation?
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Turkey journos and authorities charged with treason………..
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KIEV, November 30. /TASS/. Ukraine has not received Russia’s official proposal about the restructuring of Ukrainian debt worth $3 billion, Deputy Finance Minister Artyom Shevalev told reporters on Monday.
“We have not received Russia’s proposal via official channels,” he said.
Yats panicking about not enough coal, haven’t paid for gas……..economic nosedive…Crimea survives, Turkey is a loser big time
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Eu funds Turkey re immigration, Poro wants to jump on the bandwagon
KIEV, November 30. /TASS/. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko held several brief meetings with the heads of European and Asian countries on the sidelines of the XXI United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris. No serious agreements were reached while prospects of the visa-free regime with Ukraine was on top of the agenda. Poroshenko has also once again called on Europeans to extend sanctions against Russia.
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Ps…..Erdogan and Putin allocated separate rooms at climate change…..note Putin and Net v v in agreement with their agreed military strategy so it appears= stab in back for Erdo? Certainly shows him and NATO up by comparison. Body language seems P and N trusting to each others word?
Few #Russia’s spetsnaz are partially involved in some #SAA operations. They’re giving an important help in some strategic areas.
after getting clobbered in yemen, do a US.. try again and see if you get bitch slapped again.. after all, its like asking for a date, ask enough people and you might get lucky.. or here fight enough people and you are bound to win even if no on is left standing.
UAE says ready to commit troops to fight Syria jihadists
The United Arab Emirates has said it is ready to commit ground troops against jihadists in Syria and described Russian air strikes in the country as attacks on a “common enemy”.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/afp/2015/11/syria-conflict-uae-russia.html
Doesn’t that SPG look remarkably like a Ferdinand? After all those years… (Although I suppose it is less under-powered).
T-155 Firtina, Turkish version of Korean K9 Thunder. 40km range. They have aprox 300 of the model …
This evil nut case never gives up, the liar of a songbird still thinks everyone is an idiot.. He wanted 50,000 marines to go fight Russians in Syria.. So now he is trying to hookwink other peoples to go die for him fighting Russians in Syria.. For IS is his creation.. I say burn them.. burn them all.. Don’t let a single one out alive..
On Sunday, US senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham called for 100,000 foreign soldiers, most from Sunni regional states but also including Americans, to fight IS in Syria.
Oh forgot.. Some rebels left over in homs want to surrender because supplies have been cut.. Assad the big softie has standing orders to take Syrians alive and after disarming them, they can go home.. Russia better bomb them some more first to mow the grass to reduce their burden to Syrian society.. Would be the last hold they have before homs is freed.. Why take a chance.. Let god decide if they are the opposition or not..
RuAF SU-34s in Syria FIRST performed combat sorties equipped AAM R-73 & R-27 + KAB-, OFAB-500 v RuMOD
Russia warplanes flying over #Saraqeb #Idlib #Syria Nov 30
A Su-34 with air-to-air missiles! with 2 R-73 and 2 R-27 AAMs.
https://twitter.com/AEJKhalil/status/671294671054860288
The a/craft was escorted with RuAF fighters during flying from Turkey to RUS… O. Peshkov’s SU-24->
СИРИЯ Тело погибшего командира экипажа Су-24М, Героя РФ Олега Пешкова, доставлено в Россию http://on.fb.me/1MZw5ht
https://twitter.com/mod_russia/status/671361087720300546
The head of RuMOD general S.Shoigu met a/craft that delivered body of RuAF hero Oleg Peshkov-downed SU-24 commander
https://twitter.com/KURYERSAT/status/671360970770522112
What the… Are the ukies selling the kitchen sink now?
Most of this junk wont even \work after decades of misuse.. So this is what Qatar made the deal with the ukies for ? Most likely to target the Russian air base.. Hmmm Russia needs to be careful if they can get stuff like this..
Tochka missile found in Teir Maela north of #Homs
http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2015/30-november-tochka-missile-found-in-teir-maela-north-of-homs
I would like to debate news from today’s rt.com about the orders from the US media giants that the US Congress give them 30.5 million extra dollars in 2016 in order to destroy rt.com news, it being more dangerous than ISIS.
Loose thread…OK. Do not forget that the US embassy in Kiev also controls what I call Operation Soft Underbelly which is the plans to create chaos in the Caucasus via communications to their embassies in the “stan” Republics.
Now that Russia has proven capable of withstanding the onslaught of the hegemon on 2 fronts and Ashton-Carter has gotten at least one of his promised body bags the shadow government is at a crossroads: Do they go for broke with the Turkish army in N. Syria or start another front in the Caucasus? Can they really count of the Israelis to cooperate in a squeeze play? Hmmm. I think not.
The Germans learned a lesson with the fools in Kiev so they are backing away in NATO very quickly from this CIA gambit with Erdogan. At least someone in their military/ruling elite has a brain and a knack for history.
This next period is going to be as tricky as last year during the cauldrons of the Donbass. The life of everyone on this planet hangs in balance so if any of you are the praying type…I’d light those candles and make those petitions for peace.
Russia should send in Iskander missiles with tactical nuclear weapons to Syria. Every possible attack on Syria should get an immediate response – If Erdogan attacks Syria, his tanks will go up in the nuclear smoke. You should talk with lunatic islamist Erdogan the language he understand.
I will never advocate what you just wrote.
removed.ModTR
Rather detailed info on the ground of politics in Syria.. Pretty neutral and interesting take on things.
Erdogan more isolated than ever on Syria
Erdogan’s “feel good moment” backfires
Credit for the inspired diplomacy of turning crisis into opportunity goes to Hollande and US President Barack Obama, who apparently have decided that the overall objective of ending the war in Syria should not be held hostage to Turkey’s aggressive response to the Russian warplane’s alleged violation of Turkish airspace.
If Russia were to provide overt support to the YPG in its quest to remove IS from the border region, such a political move could further complicate not only US-Russian relations but also the cooperation between Washington and Ankara. After all, Turkey is a member of NATO, but for Washington, under an Obama administration serving its last year in office and increasingly reluctant to engage in any sort of direct military involvement in Syria, it might be difficult to push ‘the unruly teenager of the Transatlantic Alliance’ to invoke Article 5.”
Turkey’s shooting down of the Russian jet signals that the Syrian war has entered a new, more dangerous phase. No more is Syria just a “proxy war” between Syrian parties backed by Iran on the one side, and Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey on the other. The battlefield now includes American, Russian and Iranian “boots on the ground.” Russia has two military bases and provides air cover for all of Syria. Turkey prudently suspended its air operations over Syria. The stakes have far exceeded both Erdogan’s personal vendetta against Assad and his desire to thwart the Syrian Kurds. Turkey’s reckless action put NATO on the hook for a type of escalation that would have repercussions beyond Syria. The credit goes to Obama, Hollande and Putin for weathering the storm.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/11/syria-turkey-russian-warplane-shot-down-aftermath-erdogan.html
Sorry, to the very stupid Erdogan crime family, but the war’s outcome has already been decided unless the west wants to throw the entire table over. By the Turkish-USA-NATO-Central Bankers action of downing and murdering the Russian air force personnel everything that Russia needs to finish prosecuting this war has been handed to Her. First Russia can now righteously openly deploy their advanced air defense missile systems effectively creating a no fly zone for greater Syrian air space of any flights not approved by Russia. The diplomatic and propaganda war has also been won through world consensus that this act was one of aggressive war by the Turks et al. This negates the west’s plan to saturate the Syrian skies with NATO member nations planes sidelining Russia greatly under safety code to avoid aerial conflict after the likelihood of another mistaken downing as a veiled threat. The cost to Russia, one pilot, one marine, one older plane, one helicopter. The west’s position of defending and trying to defend their mercenary terrorists assets is becoming untenable as the Syrian and friends ground forces seal off the Turk-Syrian border, up to which Russian may now bomb as freely as She wishes. Brilliant, unless as I said the west wants to tip the whole table over.
But does it stop with this? Is Erdo able to stop? And if he closes the straits? What then? There are claims that Russ ships are pooled at each end of Bosporus now and not traversing passage. What plan to force the essential waterway?
How are straits closed?
If ship tries to go through it’s fired on? Well, then that ship could shoot back in self defense.
Or if passage is obstructed with something in the way, like a movable wall, then the ship can just sit there and block all traffic from anyone. Or a wall could be blown away.
The question is how far Russia, Turkey, or others are willing to go. If NATO or Turkey really want war they don’t need to say anything — they can just start it and face whatever resonses ensue, and they will have to guess at and risk what that response might be.
look here: http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:27/centery:41/zoom:9
is Russ traffic moving?
Method of closing waterways in geopolitical war is mechanical. tankers cannot “shoot back”. warships can, but is obvious that shore and air-based kinetic gadgets, cannon, rockets, blocking ships, can prevent navigation.
transit through straits is essential to Russ expedition in syria. if straits closed to Russ then Russ must re-open them. must. in strategy a lack of options, reduction of options to one, places player at disadvantage as everybody knows what he will do next.
i have no idea what method Russ would employ, but force seems probable. of course force can be brought in any one of several ways, occult, economic, political, and, ah, “direct”.
or maybe Erdo will chicken out and retire to his “harem”.
No offence Mr red but you don’t appear familiar with how marine traffic works in the Bosporus straight.
It is always Mad and busy. Traffic is one way (eg Black sea bound) for some hours and then it is reversed. A ship can wait for days before it’s cleared to cross either Bosporus or Dardanelles straights. Hence you see so many cargo ships at the Istanbul anchorage (green squares).
Military traffic has different rules than cargo.
The real worrisome development is the concentration of Turkish forces at the Syrian border.
Yes, I understand that the geography of strait makes one way traffic more logical than two-way and I assumed that traffic was one way. But also yes, I am not familiar with specifics. Nevertheless I do not see Russ traffic moving. And yes too, the Turk armor, not infantry but armor, massing at Syrian border is threat. Armor is for advancing into territory, infantry would be used to merely control the border area. But consider sequence: Turk armor crosses border, Russ aviation attack invasion force, Turks then close straits. This is why Turk armor is threat, not because Russ and SSA can’t stop it. Obvious they can. Also obvious strategy goal: close strait. In bizarre English usage is “strait”, not “straight”,, latter meaning the character of a line, former meaning nautical geography.
Tell us what is procedure at strait for military ships of black sea states?
Seems to me that Russ would have to force passage if passage denied, and that doing that would almost guarantee hotnukewar. but I am often wrong. people do find ways, so far, to avoid global suicide.
Pax
The way that has worked in the past. If a “strait” has two countries as its sides its declared an “international waterway” and can’t be legally closed by either country alone. Hence the turmoil over the Straits of Hormuz,and Malacca Straits,etc,when someone talks about them being closed in war. Other straits that only go through one country can be considered as “national waterways”,and that causes problems since a nation can “legally” close their own waterways whenever they want to.The Bosporus and the related point the Dardanelles Strait have been normally considered outside the norm.Since they are the one and only entrance and exit to the Black Sea for everyone. They have been considered as an international waterway before. But in the 1930’s the Turks declared they were a “national waterway” and got the League of Nations to accept that. Because the other Black Sea countries were furious the Turks “promised” that they would still act as if the straits were an international waterway.But that situation has always been a powder-keg waiting to explode if Turkey was ever in a major dispute with another Black Sea state (i.e. Russia).Legally the Turks can close the Straits.But doing so could very easily be a grounds for Russia to declare war on Turkey. Or what they might do,is position ships in the entrances to the Straits and have them “develop engine trouble” not letting then move.Which would block the Straits to all traffic. The international outcry would be deafening. And that might force the Turks to stop playing that game. But otherwise Russia would be forced to seize the Straits or just accept being bottled up in the Black Sea. The Ottoman closings of the Straits has caused wars in the past. So it is possible. But if they did that,it would mean NATO does want a war with Russia. And it would have to be fought and won.
The first method of closing a strait that comes to my mind is to mine it. This would require a mine-sweeper to re-open it, but such a ship would be a sitting duck from shore fire.
So what happens when Russian ships blockade the Turkish ports in response? Turkey don’t have the resources to unblock it. Any blockade will last less than week. For Turkey trade is imperative, Russia can send good via atlantic or pacific or via iran/Iraq.. Takes a lot longer but doable.. Only thing Turkey can do is slow down shipping. That will hurt everyone. Even Turkey.. I highly doubt ALL of the Turkish regime is out to go to war with Russia.. Erdo has a stake in it so he can do a few things but when it starts to hurt others in the Regime the options get limited. This shoot down was that songbird liar mccains idea to save his terrorists.. Now he is trying to get the Turkish army to move inside Syria.. Without air cover.. We might even see a coup in Turkey before such a suicidal venture. Upto now it has all been Turkish intelligence with some Turkish army support.. A full scale attack would need support of the entire Turkish chain of command.
If Russia were to do that,it would be considered an act of war. And if any foreign ships hit the mines it would probably draw those countries into the war. So that would be an extreme measure only to be used when you know war is certain anyway. Or when war has already broken out.The Turks wouldn’t need to do that to close the straits. They would only need something like that if they wanted to prevent an invading fleet from coming close.
Also, keep in mind that Russian ships could still pass through Gibraltar. Apparently, it takes ten days longer from a northern port, but time is on Russia’s side in this conflict.
I don”t know ‘hotnukewar’, but in any war a primary consideration is capturing strategic territory for one side denying use foe the other, so the ‘rules’ concerning it comes down to who can enforce them and who has the strength to control the area. The rules count only in times of peace and rule of law, and that’s not quite what we have now, despite the veneer and silly games.
Turkey, NATO, US, already are not following the law and standard diplomatic practice. Russia is trying to get everyone to return to that, but so far it is not working — hence the support for terrorists, violations of sovereignty, genocidal bombing and invasions by the US, war crimes, shoot-downs, etc. How many people with any power now would alter their actions because of law except as a propaganda tactic? Precious few in the West, and in the East it would seem that they allow some propaganda success by the West in exchange for some time or positional advantage, but knowing that none of it will be considered binding by the empire.
The war of all against all – we’re all practicing only- heating up in the House of Commons, fists may fly on the subject of Isis strikes(God preserve her soul) may she not be stricken. Links@ – turbo charged mean machine man -http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/30/labour-mps-free-vote-syria-airstrikes-corbyn-and-benn-agree-to-disagree
On another note, regarding Donbass… things could turn apocalyptic from my premonitions in March, or April, (forget which.)
Candles and prayers, from all types.
If I presume correct, first thing Turkey and NATO would like to do is closing Bosphorus. The main supply route for Russia. Russia need to find different supply channel / support.
In this case Russia’s tie with Armenia and Georgia would let Turkey other concern. Powering up Russia’s hand in Serbia and Greece will help I guess.
Also a trade concentration to IRAQ would be great, I guess. Turkey is selling about $10B of goods to Iraq every year.
Here is something that I think may be important for future dot connecting. It is by Eric Draitser—an excellent analyst, from what I have seen of him.
He writes of recent terrorist attacks in Mali, that seem to be directed toward specific Chinese and Russian individuals there, who are involved in development of Mali’s infrastructure.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/terror-in-mali-an-attack-on-china-and-russia-one-third-of-the-victims-were-russians-and-chinese/5491869?utm_source=Global+Research+Newsletter&utm_campaign=f178558e9c-Newsletter_27_11_1511_27_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0ec9ab057f-f178558e9c-81382049&ct=t%28Newsletter_27_11_1511_27_2015%29&mc_cid=f178558e9c&mc_eid=93587a05df
Wow, that is a long URL. If it doesn’t work, here is a URL for the story at New Eastern Outlook:
http://journal-neo.org/2015/11/27/terror-in-mali-an-attack-on-china-and-russia/
Katherine
From Paul Craig Roberts, a fearless truth teller
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/11/30/russia-wakes-up-about-western-financed-ngos-operating-against-russia-paul-craig-roberts/
Netanyahu w/ Putin: “I hope our coordination in #Syria will continue so we don’t create problems.” –
Iranian general Soleimani denies rumors of his death
An agreement has been reached in Al-Waer #Homs in which militants will be evacuated/transferred to N-Hama/Idlib within a 60 day period.
If this is true, it would mean that #Homs city will be under complete #Syria-n government control
According to @EjmAlrai: #RuAF will soon operate from a 2nd airfield in #Syria; Sha’yrat Airbase SE of #Homs
Keenan Duffey, big-time US military contractor who runs State Dept-funded “independent” news site Syria Direct.
The Caricature of the week !!
https://twitter.com/RajaChemayel/status/671464136572854273
The #Russia-n Kamov Ka-52 ‘Alligator’ Attack Helicopter has arrived in #Syria
Knock, Knock, Daesh: Finest Russian Combat Helicopters Come to Syria
Kamov Ka-52 and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters were reportedly spotted in the vicinity of Hmeymim airbase in Syria.
The Kamov Ka-52 helicopter, along with other modifications of the Ka-50 Black Shark attack helicopters is usually employed by Russian military for special forces support, while the Mil Mi-28 is designated as the main army gunship.
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151130/1031012769/russia-attack-helicopters-syria.html
…
Saker community,
This website serves as a wonderful source of information and discussion on geopolitical events between Russia and the Western cabal.
What I would personally like to see is The Saker analyze the so-called fifth column in Russia. In my opinion the Western cabal will have won the war (I would posit it was almost checkmate but has since reversed internally) if they can effectively deny Russia sovereignty via their NGO/Soros-funded Atlanticists in the major nodes of Russian government, education and businesses.
This is the weak link the State Dept. has identified and is working to generate leverage for protests against Putin.
For example, it appears they have intentionally exacerbated economic conditions in Russia through control of economic policies of the Russian central bank. The denying of credit via sanctions was working until Russia was able to sign economic and currency deals with China and others, helping reduce the effects of sanctions and credit illiquidity.
They are also pushing to disrupt elections in cities on the periphery of Moscow (after a failed maidan) by supporting pro-Western entities in local educational and governmental institutions.
Please see the following link for a discussion on these events by the hea of the Duma: http://youtu.be/xCyUZjGV3Zg
My question to TheSaker: What is your assessment of the fifth column and its goal of removing Putin from power? If early elections are called and a pro-western stooge elected, is the game over?
Nils
One last request:
It seems from the general attitude from the Saker Community that a weakening of western unilateralism is desired. Everyone is rooting for Putin believing his success with bring about a world of multi polarity.
I would add a word of caution: if Putin and his supporters (including China and Iran) do achieve success over the current world struggle against the western elite, I think the last thing to happen will be stability and peace.
Currently, the power of the west emanates from the financial system and the power to, literally, print money and therefore ‘make’ power. That’s what makes this geopolitical struggle so difficult: those with power hold the keys to the printer while those in opposition (Putin et al) must fight back using honest or even handicapped (ie, sanctions) finances.
Putin’s gambit is to return world power back to those who actually hold wealth – like oil and gas and other natural resources (Russia) or actual manufacturing resources (China) – by denominating business transactions in their currency.
If Putin succeeds then the use of the dollar in petrodollar/financial transactIon roles collapses. With that nearly every major western government would default (as their currency becomes overextended and hyperinflation begins).
In effect no real transformation in government morals occurs, no victory for the proletariat but simply a transfer of wealth and power. We would have simply changed masters – west to east. And I don’t believe it will be pretty.
Map
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/colonelcassad/19281164/781862/781862_900.jpg
Video
Aerial surveillance of movements of oil tankers Erdogan in Syria(just near turkish border)
https://youtu.be/ZSWDW1ppvbA
That’s okay, a little humble pie does wonders for the soul..
soul always thought felt the same way about the same, we know that, but thanks for the pie.
You AZ agents just won’t give up the disinformation war. Spreading fear, deceit, lies and propaganda wears a bit thin for most critical thinkers.
You forget the international laws that Putin, Russian and China represent. You know, the same set of rules that the AZs choose to ignore when it acts counter to their agenda.
As history has shown, Russia and China do not attack sovereign states unless they, themselves are being attacked. Empire building is not either country has been seeking to do in modern history.
The AZs however have colonized all of Europe, Africa, South American and much of Asia by way of force, puppet regimes, threats, provocation, intimidation, debt, slavery, looting, plundering, privatisation, drug trade, theft, a manipulated currency etc… I guess you prefer this world, full of Western ‘democratic’ values to a world that actually wants peace, a fairer economic system, true democratic values and international law that puts western war criminals to the sword.
“You forget the international laws that Putin, Russian and China represent.”
which one….? to vote to destroy a sovereign nation of Libya? Get serious – “might is right” – the same with Russia, China or USA!
Russia didn’t vote to destroy Libya. It was tricked by the Empire to support a no fly zone so that the Empire could carpet bomb the country to the stone age.
Fool me once, shame on you! Fool me twice, shame on me!
Russia is preventing the same attack on Syria this time.
I am, in fact, ethnically Anglo-Saxon but I do not subscribe to the hegemony currently tormenting the world.
I am urging for a clear discussion on what this geopolitical war is really about and where it’s most important battles are being fought.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union the Western cabal have infiltrated and weakened the Russian state. The West are experts at color revolutions and social destabilization and will continue to pursue disintegration of the Russian state.
But let’s be frank: what this war is really about is a struggle for the global hierarchy of power. Russia’s immense and real (not financially contrived) wealth can be used with Chinese support to establish a new world order centered in Eurasia. The West’s primary export is debt and war, with no manufacturing base left after the great Neoliberal purge. If Russia and China establish an economically integrated Eurasia, then US hegemony would certainly be defanged.
But again, the real question – where does this global struggle take us? Does simply running from the arms of the Western elite to those in the east, the New Silk Road, and a unified and wealthy Asian continent, bode well for those living in the West?
I do not disagree that the current status quo in the West is unsustainable, unmoral, and downright repugnant. But that doesn’t mean changing power bases will guarantee anything better – we may find ourselves as puppets with simply new masters. Or worse: subject to widespread famine, poverty and civil wars.
There’s no “right answer” anywhere, but a complex set of choices with trade offs. Let’s at least begin to acknowledge this.
The answers to that ,while not easy,are clear. The West has a tremendous population in itself. And some very fine land and resources. The people of the West need to reclaim their nations from the elite. Re-industrialize their own lands,and “actually” create products again in their own countries (not just military products). Their elites looting the World and building economies on “financial schemes” doesn’t benefit the “citizens” of those countries. Only the 1-10% that are the leading classes there gain from that. Years ago it was said that this was the first generation in the modern US that “wouldn’t” live better than their parents. And the next generation doesn’t look to live better than “their” parents. The fact that a multi-polar World will allow the rest of the World to advance themselves,shouldn’t be a reason for people in the West to cry about it. It should be a signal for them to rejoin the World as equals. And to allow them to free themselves from their “masters”. To be full nations once again.
Yes, indeed. I have thought of that too. And there have been obscure statements from Russ regarding Alaska (return of, with sound legal argument) and also implication that post war trials of war criminals is designed – implying that Russ recognizes present condition is W3 and assumes that Russ will prevail – and statements of geopolitical analysis to effect that US will become regional states and de-federalized, ie USA as understood now will cease to exist. Altogether one wonders what day to day life would be like for the masses in north america. Would Russ find local governors, keep peace on the street? Would a moral socialism be permitted? Seems as though they would have to keep order and make activity possible, and that implies economic ties to the New Silk Road – ties that the good fellas on Wall Street must desire. Would “select US and EU bankers and industrialists” find a place? What would post war economic relationships be?
I can only hope for the best outcome for my country, but I have no idea what it would look like. Seems to me that there exists a basic conflict couple between geopolitics and intrinsic human moral mind. On that scale Russ seems to have a Policy advantage over their “western partners”, as Russ actually has a national identity and genuine natio, a sense of Russian-ness. Real or imaginary there was time when US had that too, but it seems to be – poof! – gone.
As to the turk straits – thanks everybody for your thoughts. Some may see a split, implied, between the occult chamber (NATO and deep state) policy, which seems to be to bring about war between Turk and Russ and close strait, and less ardent “folks” who seem to desire the victory over Russ without such a dangerous act. As strategy goes, Russ must desire to fracture NATO and occult chamber, that’s how one defeats an alliance. In NATO example this rather tortures the idea of “alliance”, as there seems to be considerable extortionate control over NATO, so it may not be a genuine alliance, but an assembly of suzerain clients. Thus perhaps easier to fracture and re-align to advantage of Russ.
Hello Nils,
Thank you very much for the link to Fedorov!
From Fedorov and Nikolai Starikov I have learned so much about Russia and through contrast even about the “West” and the “Empire”, although I’m involved in these studies for 16 years now.
So your hint, your link, is “spot on” to the main issues. For Russia, for Germany (Germany lacks sovereignty) for Europe and even for USA themselves (since 1913, Federal Reserve Act, USA is no more really sovereign).
This is the real battlefield: the Russian Constitution! Not Ukraine or Syria…
Perhaps the Saker Community is still in the process of evolving, and developing new ideas and understanding for Geo-Politics.
It is very hard to think the big picture realistically, when one longs for peace, and solutions, and leaders with backbone and moral power.
Putin is a very interesting figure on the world stage, but he may also need help from a prompt to remember his lines (the plot has thickened so fast) By this I mean, our thinking may be of moral support, either to him personally, or to the impending crisis on the world stage.
After all, it’s a game changing play – who does know the script by heart?
Erdogan seriously thinks he is on a mission from god to capture Dabiq and hold in hand Amurk Hatay and he is getting quite desperate. in the mean time maybe France is simply wiggling in to complicate the firefight.
http://sputniknews.com/asia/20151201/1031037798/turkish-sub-russian-ship.html
One of the very few western journalists that the Syrian government interacts with…
David Cameron, There Aren’t 70,000 Moderate Fighters In Syria – Whoever Heard of a Moderate with a Kalashnikov, Anyway? By Robert Fisk
At one point last week, one of Cameron’s satraps was even referring to this phantom army as “ground troops”. I doubt if there are 700 active “moderate” foot soldiers in Syria – and I am being very generous, for the figure may be nearer 70 – let alone 70,000. And the Syrian Kurds are not going to conquer Isis for us; they’re too busy trying to survive the assaults of our Turkish allies.
The Syrian regime’s army – who really are ground troops and who never worried about the “moderate” rebels because they always ran away – are the only regular force deployed in Syria. And thanks to Vladimir Putin rather than PR Dave, they’re beginning to win back territory.
Do they too believe – as we are all supposed to believe – that the so-called “Joint Intelligence Committee” is telling the truth about the mythical 70,000 “moderates”? Is this unspeakably valiant committee so stupid that it does not tell Dave about the role of the Saudi Wahabi death cult, which is the direct religious and sectarian inspiration for Isis? And if it did tell Dave, why didn’t he talk about the Saudis in the Commons last week?
Vladimir Putin comprehends this. He knows that Turkey is helping Isis – this is why he is going to destroy the Isis oil smuggling route to Turkey – and, as a former serving KGB officer, he understands the cynicism of any crisis.
If Turkey wished to destroy Isis, why does it bombard Isis’ Kurdish enemies? Why does it imprison two of Turkey’s top journalists for reporting how the Turkish intelligence service smuggled weapons to Islamist fighters in Syria?
Amid all this, PR Dave raves on. And why not? Having Photoshopped a fake poppy on to his lapel to honour Britain’s war dead, why shouldn’t he get away with Photoshopping 70,000 fake “moderates” on to a map of Syria?
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article43574.htm
Smooth Sailing: No Troubles Reported for Russian Ships in the Bosphorus
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:26/centery:40/zoom:7
Russian Navy ships currently aren’t experiencing any problems passing through the Bosphorus Strait or the Dardanelles, a diplomatic source from the Russian military told the Russian news agency RIA Novosti.
It also said that the Turkish authorities which regulate navigation in the straits sometimes close them due to fog or allow for movement in only one direction because of the congestion of vessels in the area.
http://sputniknews.com/world/20151201/1031051313/russia-ships-turkey-submarine.html
Germany commits to anti-ISIS coalition, rules out cooperation with Assad
https://www.rt.com/news/324097-germany-isis-syria-support/
thats funny , my patriots ara going to send reconassaince planes and refuelling planes and 1200 personell to manage them , plus a Frigate. They ruleout cooperation with Assad. So it is clear that they didn´t ask in Damascus for permission.
Where is the base? Diyalbakir? Incilirk?
Alemania no compartirá con Rusia datos sobre los vuelos de su Fuerza Aérea en Siria
https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/192983-alemania-compartir-datos-vuelos-siria-rusia
Germany will not share with Russia the reconaissance info gained by the Luftwaffe-Tornados.
So they didn´t want tell gospodin Shogui either.
I hope they will be so smart to share the info with France , with the tacit implication that France will make the necessary cooperation with Mr.Shogui.
I think that UschiBumBum (Ursula von der Leyen , german defense minister) , talks to the gallery with Putin-bashing and acts undercover in coordination with France.
I was pleasantly surprised to see our friend The Saker cited by Sputnik News today:
“”US intelligence agencies suffer from many weaknesses, but being unable to track money movements is not one of them,” The Saker, an anonymous top level American military analyst, told Sputnik in an exclusive interview.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151201/1031060730/turkey-war-russia-crimea-caucasus-central-asia-daesh.html#ixzz3t5GZJqaH“
PM Davutoglu: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other countries will start anti-terrorism operation inside Syria soon
Germany saying no coordination with Russia..
Those 150,000 Russian troops in Syria is looking more and more likely.. Nato is drastically expanding in Syria and only reason I can see is to block Russian moves. If turkey starts moving troops inside Syria, 100% sure Russian ground forces will arrive.. Iran sending troops is not the same.. Turkey has not attacked iran yet..So Sending more Iranian troops wont make a difference.. Also Nato is not attacking Iran directly.. But Nato is at war with Russia..
trouble here
The United States will be looking for opportunities to send additional special operations forces to Syria to aid in the fight against Daesh, US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said on Tuesday.
WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — US considers sending additional forces to Syria is necessary:
“We are sending Special Operations forces personnel to Syria to support the fight against Daesh/ISIL,” Carter told the House Armed Services Committee, referring to the 50 special operators deployed by the United States last month.
He added that “where we find further opportunity to leverage such capability, we will be prepared to expand it.”
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/us/20151201/1031066934/syria-carter-us-military.html#ixzz3t5TPG3jp
and
According to a diplomatic source, NATO is attempting to seek permission through the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe to do “surprise inspections” on Russian military exercises.
The NATO emblem is seen before a defence ministers meeting at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on October 22, 2013
© AFP 2015/ JOHN THYS
Russia-NATO Relations in Line With Founding Act – German Defense Ministry
BRUSSELS (Sputnik) – NATO is attempting to seek permission through the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe to do “surprise inspections” on Russian military exercises that NATO believes have become larger and taking place more often, a diplomatic source said Tuesday.
“Snap Russian military drills are often a surprise for NATO and this is why the alliance wants to go through the OSCE so that it gets Russia to preliminarily announce its exercises and as well as the size [of the exercises] so as to create a mechanism for ‘surprise inspections,’” the source told RIA Novosti.
On Monday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said that Europe want to create a “regime of snap checks of snap exercises” to increase the level of predictability of military activity.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/russia/20151201/1031034162/nato-osce-russian-drills.html#ixzz3t5TsYjEF
i don’t think I’d agree to that-kind of backs up idea shooting down plane was deliberate to discover how Rus jamming etc works………..now turkey bringing up its own systems to see how they interact, or Turkey one can be modified by NATO??????/
————————————————————
follow on Rus v concerned over validity of OSCE?
MOSCOW, December 2. /TASS/. Political engagement, a biased approach and double standards are evident in the activity of OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities Astrid Thors, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a comment released on Wednesday.
“There are many claims to the work of High Commissioner on National Minorities Thors,” the document says.
READ ALSO
Dunja Mijatovic (archive) © EPA/TOMASZ GZELL POLAND OUT
Russia blasts OSCE media freedom representative over double standards
‘We’re urging the High Commissioner on National Minorities to deal closely with actual threats related to her mandate, including the current mass influx of refugees, the problem of stateless persons in Latvia and Estonia, the steady rise in the manifestations of racism, xenophobia and neo-Nazism in Western Europe, clashes on racial grounds in the United States and the violation of the rights of national minorities, including the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in its comment.
“Unfortunately, political engagement, a biased approach and double standards are obvious in the activity of Thors, which undermines the authority of the institution itself,” the ministry said.”
and
MOSCOW, December 2. /TASS/. Moscow calls on OSCE media freedom representative Dunja Mijatovic to adhere to her mandate and not be guided by double standards when assessing the situation with the freedom of speech, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday.
“We note the need for the OSCE media freedom representative to strictly adhere to her mandate,” the ministry said in a commentary ahead of the OSCE Ministerial Council’s meeting in Belgrade on December 3-4 to be attended by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
READ ALSO
Russia to raise issue of transferring OSCE Warsaw conference to Vienna — foreign ministry
OSCE urges Poroshenko to exclude journalists from sanctions list
Moscow demands release of Russian journalists in Kiev, expects OSCE response
Russian diplomat accuses EU of setting up “commando force” to fight Russian propaganda
Russia seeks to draw UNESCO attention to Ukraine infringing journalists rights
“Double standards during the assessment of the situation with the freedom of speech are unacceptable as well as the lack of consistent reaction of the representative to restrictive measures of some OSCE countries against Russia’s media resources.”
Russia hopes that the OSCE member-states will find “a more competent candidate” to replace Mijatovic whose mandate expires on March 11, 2016, the ministry said.
Moscow will outline its position after holding consultations with the candidates and assessing their statements, and in particular their ability to take into account the concerns of the member-states.”
—————————————————————————
BRUSSELS, December 2. /TASS/. NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that the alliance has made a decision to resume the procedure of convening NATO-Russia Council meetings for engagement with Russia.
NATO terminated these contacts in 2014 over the crisis in Ukraine.
READ ALSO
Hybrid attacks may trigger NATO’s collective defense article, says Stoltenberg
Russian lawmaker: NATO support for Ankara over Su-24 incident suggests joint provocation
Russian diplomat: NATO afraid of consequences if plane incident not settled
“We decided also to keep at the same time channels for political contact open. And the NATO Russia Council is part of these channels for political contact and dialogue… And I will now explore how we can use the Council as a tool for political engagement. We have never decided to not use it. And I welcome the support to then convene a Council, and we will look into how we can do that. I will do that together with the ambassadors, and I will come back on when and how this can be done.”
Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a radio interview contacts between Russia and the West were gradually getting back to normal and Russian delegates did not feel themselves in isolation at international events. He acknowledged that some formats of contacts had been frozen by the West.”
———————————————————-
maybe NATO etc are waking up to reality
Pre-Emptive move?
The YPG has still not pushed west of the Euphrates, but along with its allies, and with the help of Russian strikes, the SDF are threatening Turkey-backed opposition groups in another key border crossing, Kilis, west of Jarablous.
Losing control of the northern countryside of Aleppo would be a setback for the opposition. Turkey, too, would lose influence.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be eyeing an even bigger victory. He called on the Assad government and the political wing of the YPG to unite. This has still not happened – at least not officially.
But Syrian Kurdish officials have said they are ready to work with anyone fighting ISIL, and anyone who works for a united, secular and democratic Syria.
Such an alliance would change the battlefield and the balance of power on the ground.
That is good news.But the sides need to hurry with it. The sooner a united front can be established the better. We do disagree on Russian troops though. I doubt large numbers will be committed. I suspect less than 20,000-30,000. But hopefully Iranian troops will arrive. It looks pretty clear that the Ukrainians will start something shortly. And Russian troops may be needed for that problem. So as long as the Ukrainian situation still exists I doubt large numbers of Russian troops can be send to Syria (even if they want too). But in reality,armed with good equipment and with good leadership. That number of troops,combined with the SAA,Hezbollah,and Iranian and Iraqi forces should be able to do the job.
So from 2000 to 4000 to 5000… to 20,000 or 30,000… The troops have to be Russian not Iranian.. The Iranians can send troops to fight but only the Russians can position blocking troops. That maybe enough but they will have to show that they can back it up. Already we have hints that a Russian missile base will spring up. And maybe a lot more air bases as well on top of the 2 that’s known. We already know there is a war going on and only way to stop provocations is to have large enough force at hand to make adventurism dangerous. Already Russian special forces are advising SAA on the front lines.. Russia would only engage nato forces not terrorists.. Like the US forces in Germany.. The 100 new planes include some of the latest attack helicopters on par with apaches.. Which are ground support equipment. So even if Russian ground troops don’t take part in any fighting, they are already planning for air support.. I think Putin has realized it is better to fight in the desert than a highly populated area like Ukraine.. Turkey being so close would be the first place to get wacked.. Now it also comes out that most IS have moved out of Raqqa with only less than 2000 members still in the city.. So cut supplies and communications and they are bottled up.
US is not going to allow such a victory. They will escalate it until there is a reaction.. So I do expect a lot more than 30,000 Russian troops in Syria.. It is very expensive to station foreign troops over seas.. So it will only go up depending on the situation.. It all depends on what the US does..
T4- Tiyas is the next airport that #Russia will be using in #Syria.
Already 3 teams are working to get the 2nd air base up and running.. with the 3rd in planning…
oooohhh
“Petro Poroshenko, at the beginning of 2016 to visit Turkey. This President said after talks with Erdogan on the sidelines of the UN Summit on Climate in Paris.
“We expect this visit to a breakthrough. It will be shown a number of developments in security matters, as well as economic and political cooperation “, – said Poroshenko.
According to him, during the meeting, Erdogan announced Turkey’s airspace violation by Russian Su-24. In turn, Petro Poroshenko briefed Erdogan about the situation in the Donbass, and said that will never be recognized as the Crimea to Russia. He also tried to tell the alleged violations of the rights of Ukrainians, Crimean Tatars and other inhabitants of the peninsula.
It is noted that the sides agreed to intensify trade and economic cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey. Soon it will be held the 10th session of the Intergovernmental Ukrainian-Turkish Commission on trade and economic cooperation.”
note “number of developments in security matters”…the evils are getting together…….
http://www.anna-news.info/node/48106
google translate
——————————————–
“In Homs on Tuesday to take effect on the local reconciliation agreement according to which the output will start from the northern suburb of El-warp about 3 thousand. Militants. Homs is located 185 km. north of Damascus.
Agreement on the local reconciliation is expected on Tuesday, will come into force in the Syrian city of Homs (185 km north of Damascus). According to the governor Talal al-Barraza, all of them will be gradually transferred within 60 days to the province of Hama and Idlib – in areas under the control of armed groups.
The governor hoped that some of the militants lay down their arms, as they did in May 2014. “If the agreement will be fulfilled, then Homs will be completely cleared of armed groups,” – said the governor.
However, the truce has been repeatedly frustrated by the provocations of the implacable opposition in the face of extremist supporters of “Al-Nusra Dzhebhat” related to the terrorist network “Al-Qaeda”
According to the newspaper “Al-Watan”, the first stage on Monday, the two suburbs were evacuated 117 members of the “Al-Nusra Dzhebhat.” This group included 15 women and children. The convoy, accompanied by members of the UN and the Syrian Red Crescent Society followed in Kfar Nobul (Idlib).
In Zabadani fire was terminated on September 24. Hostilities stopped in the neighboring towns – Madai, Bukeyn and Sergey. In exchange for a truce militants armed coalition “Jaish al-Fath” lifted the siege from two Shiite villages – El Fua and Carefree in Idlib. This agreement was reached through the mediation of the Iranian embassy and the UN mission in Damascus.”
http://www.anna-news.info/node/48096
google translate
worth noting?
————————————————————————————–
Elijah J. Magnier @EjmAlrai
#Russia concluded a deal with #Israel to buy all fruits and vegetable, replacing a huge #Turkish market. Putin is gradually escalating.
Russia supplied #SAA with high technology and communication system/ monitoring in the last week, following the #Su24 issue w/ #Turkey.+
Iran is mediating between #Russia and #Turkey. So far, #Putin is inflexible toward #Erdogan .
More #Russian air jets are expected in Sha’ayrat before the end of this month. #Syria. The race to #Raqqa is going.
10 fighter jets and 15 attack helicopters belonging to Russia already deployed at the Shayrat airport near Homs.
2nd Russian airbase in Sha’yrat, Homs, is near Hamrat where Russian howitzers were deployed
ShayratBase is bigger than #Hmeymim, has 45 plane hangars, can host up to a 100 jets
3 teams r working on the airport now.
https://twitter.com/yurybarmin/status/671614110006697984
According to sources in the government a day in Syria costs the Russian army less than a day of military exercises
New map.#Latakia mountains. #SAA take control of Arafit,Rweiset Sheikho & Ketf Al-Salatt
http://postimg.org/image/49cnosk79/
Bodies of martyred #SAA soldiers during ~3 year siege of #Kweires Airbase returned to families
https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/670330736260550656
Many may deduce that Turkey is being used to create war with Russ and close straits, etc. If this is so, then next phase, Turk rolls armor into Syria, would have to have air cover by NATO. This would mean Moskva and also S400 are first priority targets. US has been practicing “evasive maneuvers” by combined bomber forces in Dakotas, and now also this report about Turk subs. http://southfront.org/turkish-submarines-began-tracking-russian-guided-missile-cruiser-moskva-off-syrian-coast/
I may be pessimist. Looks bad to me.
Pax
Anonymous post 2
Theres not an aircraft in existence that can evade an S-400.
It sees everything in its envelope and can kill it in less than 90 seconds at the most.
War is about attrition and Russia has more missiles that everyone else has planes.
No air cover means no ground movements by armour and artillery.
50 SF here…50 SF there doesn’t add up to a can of beans without air power/support….Russia can deny this to all parties involved in Syria now.
Add the 2nd airhead and its curtains for everyone except the Damascus Alliance.
You have to go to nuclear exchange to even attempt any sort of game change from the facts now on the ground and that won’t happen.
Russia wil resupply Syria through the Caspian/Iran/North Iraq MSR’s…..all covered with full spectrum air cover.
Turkey is irrelevant in all of this now…it just doesn’t understand yet.
Commentators talking about costs? It cost nothing to prosecute this war when compared to the cost of losing up 50% of the Russian gas market in Europe.
IBLIB: THE RUSSIAN AIRFORCE HIT THE BULL’S EYE IN SARAAQIB TODAY WHEN SU-24 BOMBERS FIRED MISSILES AT A HEADQUARTERS OF ALQAEDA/NUSRA AND VAPORIZED AN ENTIRE BUILDING CONTAINING AMMUNITION AND FUEL. BUILDINGS NEXT TO IT ALSO WERE DESTROYED AND APPEARED TO CONTAIN WEAPONS, AMMUNITION AND FUELS. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED TO US THAT THE BUILDING WAS A MAJOR COMMAND-CONTROL CENTER AND HQ FOR ALQAEDA.
I think this is the video of that huge explosion..
Huge blast follows SAA missile on Al-Qaeda “Rebels” headquarter in Daraa-Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QXeu8fGl6I&feature=youtu.be
http://www.syriareport.net/the-silent-hereos-of-the-kuweires-offensive-the-ismaelis/
Latest map by SAA Reporter, describes the recent Syrian Army and Allies Advancing southern Kuwaires Airbase, after imposing full control over the Key Production Facility (
Grain Silos and Flour Mills), about 2 km from the early taken Airbase, that overlooking Dayr Hafer, ISIS main strongholds.
http://www.syriareport.net/military-situation-around-kuwaires-airbase-1-12-2015/
The Silent Heroes of the Kuweires Offensive: the Ismaelis
Fast forward a year later, the city of Al-Salamiyah was threatened once again; however, this time, it was from the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) terrorists, who had just captured the Tabaqa Airbase in the Al-Raqqa Governorate.
Unable to reach some of the villages near the Raqqa-Hama border, the newly formed “National Defense Forces” (NDF) of Al-Salamiyah watched as their people were massacred by the ISIS terrorists because of their religious beliefs.
From that moment on, the Ismaelis that formed the National Defense Forces contingent in Al-Salamiyah refused to shy away from any fight that included ISIS; this bravery proved vital in the Summer of 2015, when they finally routed the terrorist group from the east Hama front.
Following ISIS’ large-scale offensive to cutoff the Khanasser-Ithriyah Road, the Ismaelis answered the call from the Syrian Arab Army’s Central Command – they needed men to help liberate the soldiers trapped at the Kuweires Military Airport in east Aleppo.
Not only were the Ismaeli NDF fighters one of the largest groups participating in this offensive, they were also some of the best fighters against the ISIS terrorists that refused to retreat.
Alongside the Tiger Forces, the NDF of Al-Salamiyah (also known as “Liwaa Suqour Al-Sahra”) were ferocious on the battlefield, pushing deep into the village Sheikh Ahmad while also killing several ISIS militants.
Their aggressiveness paid off in the end, as they were among the first fighters to reach the besieged airport.
Sadly, their gallantry came at a heavy cost of life, as several NDF fighters were reportedly killed during the liberation of the Kuweires Military Airport, including one of Al-Salamiyah’s most decorated sons on the battlefield, 1st. Lt. ‘Ali ‘Ali ‘Eid (commander of Liwaa Suqour Al-Sahra).
While Syrians were jubilant over the victory at the Kuweires Military Airport, the people of Al-Salamiyah had to quietly bury their sons who dedicated their lives to freeing the 314 soldiers.
The Ismaeli fighters did not ask for anything in return; if you ask them why they decided to risk their lives in east Aleppo, they will tell you it is their duty as Syrians.
http://www.syriareport.net/the-silent-hereos-of-the-kuweires-offensive-the-ismaelis/
Guys, Saker, so you can see that not only in this community is where we are awake, that there are many, there are more, I put here this delightful news.
It appears that has been received in the offcie of http://www.elespiadigital.com a note from the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Spain in gratitude for the solidarity expressed by many Spanish citizens:
“Message from the Russian Embassy to Spanish people”:
“After the tragic events on Sinai and Syria, where they lost life Russian civilians and Russian military who fulfilled their duty to protect against international terrorism, they are coming to the Embassy numerous letters from the Spanish with the words of support, condolences and solidarity.
Increasingly comes to mind the old well known both in Russia and in Spain proverb: “In the bad is when you meet friends”.
Located on different ends of Europe, Russian and Spanish peoples belong to the same civilization, we share the same roots and we face the same threats today. Europe is our common home and we want to defend it. The best way is to work together.
Thanks from my heart!
Embassy of the Russian Federation in the Kingdom of Spain”
http://www.elespiadigital.com/index.php/noticias/historico-de-noticias/11515-mensaje-de-la-embajada-de-rusia-a-los-espanoles
Is it not moving ? How nice he is this ambassador!
I have not written him exactly, but as I have written here, my support and condolences, I’ll tell him:
Your welcome!
Ez horregatik!
You guys, could you imagine if you all do the same to your embassies?
It would be a great support to our Russian comrades!
Cheer up!
There was some discussion a few day ago concerning Trump. Here a piece by Henry Giroux
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/11/30/trumps-embrace-of-totalitarianism-is-americas-dirty-little-secret/
November 30, 2015
Trump’s Embrace of Totalitarianism is America’s Dirty Little Secret
by Henry Giroux
Business Mogul, reality TV star, and presidential candidate, Donald Trump recently mocked Serge Kovaleski, a New York Times investigative reporter with a disability, at a rally in South Carolina. This contemptuous reference to Kovaleski’s physical disability was morally odious and painful to observe, but not to comprehend, at least not politically. Trump is a hate-monger, and spreads his message without apology in almost every public encounter in which he finds himself.
[…]
Follow up…
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article43604.htm
Trump on Terrorists: You Have to Take Out Their Families
[…]
“When you get these terrorists, you have to take out their families. They care about their lives, don’t kid yourself. But they say they don’t care about their lives. You have to take out their families.”
Does this guy still have anyone supporting him?
Is this a psyop to make Clinton look sane?
What the MSM print for a gullible public and the reality of the situation are two entirely different things.
Turkey will be invading nowhere. As soon as their aircraft cross the border they are destroyed…its why Russia closed down the communications channels.
All Turkish military infrastructure can be reached from Russia and rendered useless almost immediately.
Europe will not engage in war with Russia in Syria because they understand the destruction of European military infrastructure will follow in short order.
America will not go solo.
Therefore the idea of NATO putting boots on the ground serves what purpose? They can only turn West and march on Damascus for regime change at which point they will eventually be fighting Syria, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah…….this idea is a non starter for obvious reasons.
Right at the beginning I said Syria was all about America destabilising Syria to push Qatari gas to Southern Europe and decouple Europe from Russia as much as possible at the geo-strategic level. This would remove something around 30-45% of Russia’s European gas revenues and the permanent impoverishment of Russia….clearly this cannot be allowed to happen.
I know about Qatar’s North Dome because I helped install it in the early 90’s. They share the field with Iran (South Pars) and is the only friendly/controllable deposit large enough and close enough to feed Europe for long enough……but only if it can be piped because LNG carriers make it too expensive and logistically inefficient. Iran is an ally of Russia so cant “jump” onto Qatar infrastructure and must build from scratch.
Syria and Russia by virtue of Erdogans blunder now control all of Syrian airspace via the S-400’s…..and increased the amount of Russian planes….and have armed them with AA missiles.
The Syrian army is almost at the Turkish border and Euphrates River again….the big game is over IMO.
Turkey may or may not try to attack Russia again(unlikely but you never know) but the Russians will go after them and destroy them next time….its why they have gone AWOL since the S-400’s and AA missiles went live?
Going forward 5 years?
America? Will it risk losing all its cities for Damascus and Ankara…..Mmmmm I think not.
Assad to remain until it suits Moscow….
Russia to remain the defence anchor for Syria….
No Qatari gas to Southern Europe…
Greater Kurdistan to appear (both Syrian & Iraqi)
Civil war and fragmentation of Turkey proper
Americas rear guard action behaviour is very reminiscent of watching the British Empire as it declined.
All empires rise, fall, die. Americas behaviour is like the patient with death rattles….it understands it is dying for fights for breathe right to the end.
Just some thoughts….:)
it is great that this site attracts people of actual knowledge of these situations…well done Saker.
Mutual US failures in Ukraine and Turkey
Ironically the economic collapse of Ukraine this very cold European winter may do the most damage to Turkey’s economy. Russia supplies about 58% of the natural gas (30 bcm) Turkey uses each year and Iran supplies another 20%. Breaking down the Russian gas supply to Turkey about 31% is imported via West Gas through Ukraine and the remaining 27% imported via the Black Sea Blue Stream pipelines.
While the Ukraine underground natural gas storage for transport to Eastern Europe (Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia) and Turkey is almost full, it cannot currently buy any more from Russia as it is officially bankrupt. Lack of coal purchases from Russia along with “General Winter” will lead to Ukraine stealing EU gas, especially that gas destined for Turkey.
Turkey cannot import more via Iran die to pipeline capacity issues. Turkey currently imports some LNG from Nigeria and Algeria (about 6.5 bcm), although the volumes are limited by a LNG terminal capacity of 14 bcm. These terminals are not equipped with the specialized equipment to handle LNG from Qatar or the US (several years until operational in US).
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/03/turkey-still-needs-russian-gas-via- ukraine.html
Besides, as you stated, LNG is not competitive with Russian piped natural gas. This did not stop Poland from taking this route and building a LNG terminal for Qatar LNG tankers.
http://russia-insider.com/en/tumbleweed-town-kiev-post-gas- transit/ri7635
The US didn’t think this through, what can you expect with Morningstar running the US pipeline geopolitics. Unless the EU provides a lot more aid to Ukraine and Turkey both cookie bitch projects will fail. From what I can see the EU needs trillions just to settle the refugees from the wars they supported. Payback is a bitch.
People are finally putting all these events together: the Paris attacks, the Crimean blackout, the downing of the Russian passenger plane in Egypt, the Turkish shootdown of the SU-24 and the migrant crisis. It all sort of makes one picture. This article brings out the views of Andrew Korybko in a brilliant analysis of the migrant crisis, and Steven Starr, scientific expert on Nuclear winter, as well as the looming prospect of global war:
https://quemadoinstitute.wordpress.com/2015/12/01/nuclear-winter-are-the-global-financial-powers-pushing-for-war/
Global Research today 12/2 posted an article from a NY based radio station Superstation 95 that says Turkey has blockaded the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles Straits to Russia. Is there any other confirmation?
Last I heard…
http://sputniknews.com/world/20151201/1031051313/russia-ships-turkey-submarine.html
Smooth Sailing: No Troubles Reported for Russian Ships in the Bosphorus
© AP Photo
World
16:13 01.12.2015Get short URL
55765301
Russian Navy ships currently aren’t experiencing any problems passing through the Bosphorus Strait or the Dardanelles, a diplomatic source from the Russian military told the Russian news agency RIA Novosti.
The Yauza, a transport ship recently obtained by the Russian Navy. File photo.
© Photo: SRP NERPA
Turkish Sub Confronts Russian Ship in Dardanelles (VIDEO)
At the moment, Russian naval vessels are experiencing no problems passing through the Bosphorus Strait or the Dardanelles, RIA Novosti quoted a military-diplomatic source as saying on Tuesday.
[…]