by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with Consortium News – by special agreement with the author)
All bets are off in the geopolitical insanity stakes when we have the President of the United States (POTUS) glibly announcing he could launch a nuclear first strike to end the war in Afghanistan and wipe it “off the face of the earth” in one week. But he’d rather not, so he doesn’t have to kill 10 million people.
Apart from the fact that not even a nuclear strike would subdue the legendary fighting spirit of Afghan Pashtuns, the same warped logic – ordering a nuclear first strike as one orders a cheeseburger – could apply to Iran instead of Afghanistan.
Trump once again flip-flopped by declaring that the prospect of a potential war in the Persian Gulf “could go either way, and I’m OK either way it goes,” much to the delight of Beltway-related psychopaths who peddle the notion that Iran is begging to be bombed.
No wonder the whole Global South – not to mention the Russia-China strategic partnership – simply cannot trust anything coming from Trump’s mouth or tweets, a non-stop firefight deployed as intimidation tactics.
At least Trump’s impotence facing such a determined adversary as Iran is now clear: “It’s getting harder for me to want to make a deal with Iran.” What remains are empty clichés, such as Iran “behaving very badly” and “the number one state of terror in the world” – the marching order mantra emanating from Tel Aviv.
Even the – illegal – all-out economic war and total blockade against Tehran seems not to be enough. Trump has announced extra sanctions on China because Beijing is “accepting crude oil” from Iran. Chinese companies will simply ignore them.
Okay With ‘OK Either Way’
“OK either way” is exactly the kind of response expected by the leadership in Tehran. Prof. Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran confirmed to me that Tehran did not offer Trump a “renegotiation” of the JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal, in exchange for the end of sanctions: “It’s not a renegotiation. Iran offered to move forward ratification of additional protocols if Congress removes all sanctions. That would be a big win for Iran. But the US will never accept it.”
Dehghan: U.S. bases would be targeted. (Wikimedia Commons)
Marandi also confirmed “there is nothing big going on” between Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and tentative Trump administration negotiator Sen. Rand Paul: “Bolton and Pompeo remain in charge.”
The crucial fact is that Tehran rejects a new negotiation with the White House “under any circumstances,” as expressed by Hossein Dehghan, the top military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
Dehghan once again made it very clear that in case of any sort of military adventure, every single base of the U.S. Empire of Bases across Southwest Asia will be targeted.
This neatly ties in with Iran’s by now consolidated new rules of engagement, duly detailed by correspondent Elijah Magnier. We are well into “an-eye-for-an-eye” territory.
And that brings us to the alarming expansion of the sanctions dementia, represented by two Iranian ships loaded with corn stranded off the coast of southern Brazil because energy giant Petrobras, afraid of U.S. sanctions, refuses to refuel them.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a fervent Trump groupie, has turned the country into a tropical U.S. neo-colony in less than seven months. On U.S. sanctions, Bolsonaro said, “We are aligned to their policies. So we do what we have to.” Tehran for its part has threatened to cut its imports of corn, soybeans and meat from Brazil – $2 billion worth of trade a year – unless the refueling is allowed.
This is an extremely serious development. Food is not supposed to be — illegally — sanctioned by the Trump administration. Iran now has to use mostly barter to obtain food — as Tehran cannot remit through the CHIPS-SWIFT banking clearinghouse. If food supplies are also blocked that means that sooner rather than later the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked as well.
Beltway sources confirmed that the highest level of the U.S. government gave the order for Brasilia to stop this food shipment.
Tehran knows it well – as this is part of the “maximum pressure” campaign, whose goal is ultimately to starve the Iranian population to death in a harrowing game of chicken.
Chokepoint: The Strait of Hormuz. (Flickr)
How this may end is described by an ominous quote I already used in some of my previous columns, from a Goldman Sachs derivatives specialist: “If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the price of oil will rise to a thousand dollars a barrel representing over 45 percent of global GDP, crashing the $2.5 quadrillion derivatives market and creating a world depression of unprecedented proportions.”
At least the Pentagon seems to understand that a war on Iran will collapse the world economy.
And Now for Something Completely Different
But then, last but not least, there’s the tanker war.
Dutch analyst Maarten van Mourik has noted significant discrepancies involving the UK piracy episode in Gibraltar – the origin of the tanker war. The Grace 1 tanker “was pirated by the Royal Marines in international waters. Gibraltar Straits is an international passage, like the Strait of Hormuz. There is only 3 nautical miles of territorial water around Gibraltar, and even that is disputed.”
Mourik adds, “The size of the Grace 1 ship is 300,000 MT of crude oil, it has a maximum draught of about 22.2 meters and the latest draught via AIS indicated that she was at 22.1 meters, or fully laden. Now, the port of Banyas in Syria, which is where the offshore oil port is, has a maximum draft of 15 meters. So, in no way could the Grace 1 go there, without first having to offload elsewhere. Probably a very large quantity to get within max draught limitations.”
Zarif (r.) negotiating nuclear deal with then US Secretary of State John Kerry in July, 2015. (Wikimedia Common)
That ties in with Foreign Minister Javad Zarif refusing on the record to say where Grace 1 was actually heading to, while not confirming the destination was Syria.
The tit-for-tat Iranian response, with the seizure of the Stena Impero navigating under the British flag, is now evolving into Britain calling for a “European-led maritime protection mission” in the Persian Gulf, purportedly to protect ships from Iranian “state piracy.”
Observers may be excused for mistaking it for a Monty Python sketch. Here we have the Ministry of Silly Seizures, which is exiting the EU, begging the EU to embark on a “mission” that is not the same mission of the U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign. And on top of it the mission should not undermine Britain’s commitment to keep the JCPOA in place.
As European nations never recede on a chance to flaunt their dwindling “power” across the Global South, Britain, Germany and France now seem bent on their “mission” to “observe maritime security in the Gulf,” in the words of French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. At least this won’t be a deployment of joint naval forces – as London insisted. Brussels diplomats confirmed the initial muscular request came from London, but then it was diluted: the EU, NATO and the U.S. should not be involved – at least not directly.
Now compare this with the phone call last week between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and French President Emmanuel Macron, with Tehran expressing the determination to “keep all doors open” for the JCPOA. Well, certainly not open to the Monty Python sketch.
That was duly confirmed by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who said Iran will “not allow disturbance in shipping in this sensitive area,” while Iranian vice-president Eshaq Jahangiri rejected the notion of a “joint European task force” protecting international shipping: “These kinds of coalitions and the presence of foreigners in the region by itself creates insecurity.”
Iran has always been perfectly capable, historically, of protecting that Pentagonese Holy Grail – “freedom of navigation” – in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran certainly doesn’t need former colonial powers to enforce it. It’s so easy to lose the plot; the current, alarming escalation is only taking place because of the “art of the deal” obsession on imposing an illegal, total economic war on Iran.
The Iranian government’s policy is perfectly understandable and logical – indeed it is the only viable one.
Mr Trump’s attitude to negotiations is that – just as Groucho Marx wouldn’t be a member of any club that would have him as a member – he won’t accept any agreement that the other side is willing to accept. That’s because his understanding of a negotiation is a process whereby he grinds the other side to powder.
Since Washington will not accept any agreement unless it is unacceptable to Tehran, there is no point in Iran trying to negotiate.
Moreover, as Mr Putin and his colleagues have often pointed out, the US government is incapable of making and keeping promises. So only a fool would negotiate with them.
All that remains is to sit back, well prepared, and say quietly, “Bring it on – let’s see what you’ve got”. And hope that Russia, China and other Asian nations see the utter necessity of supporting Iran in every way.
Their motto must be, “We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately”. (A sentiment that all sane, reasonable Americans should recognize and appreciate).
The World files their 27 Grievances against the United States
1. The United States has refused to Assent into Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
2. The United States has forbidden its Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till US Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, the US has utterly neglected to attend to them.
3. The US has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
4. The US has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their Public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with US measures.
5. The US has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness US invasions on the rights of the people.
6. The US has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected, whereby the Legislative Powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
7. The US has endeavored to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
8. The US has obstructed the Administration of Justice by refusing US Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary Powers.
9. The US has made Judges dependent on US Will alone for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
10. The US has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people and eat out their substance.
11. The US has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
12. The US has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil Power.
13. The US has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving US Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
14. – For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
15. – For protecting them, by a mock Trial from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
16. – For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
17. – For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
18. – For depriving us in many cases, of the benefit of Trial by Jury:
19. – For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offenses:
20. – For abolishing the free System of World Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Nations:
21. – For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
22. – For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
23. The US has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of US Protection and waging War against us.
24. The US has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
25. The US is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to complete the works of death, desolation, and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & Perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
26. The US has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
27. The US has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavored to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless terrorists whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
Applies today, just as it did in 1776.
The theatrics of the west are absurd. Truly absurd. As far as security for the Middle East, I agree with the Russian proposal. In essence, and spirit, it is pretty good. Most other regions would benefit from adopting a similar security system also.
This is now essentially a Mexican standoff. Both sides have the other covered with cocked pistols. Injecting a crazy fool like Trump into this situation is a recipe for an explosion – and this one could escalate as quickly as a chain of Chinese firecrackers to a nuclear BANG!
The Afghans are probably much better placed to deal with nuclear war than the sophisticated urbane west. The growing Iran crisis is serious, and the possibility of a food embargo would result in closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But the consequent war could not be contained within the borders of Iran, within the region; it would become a world war. Washington would face a Sino-Russian alliance. Events globally suggest we are heading for nuclear Armageddon.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
Trump Taking New Moves With Russia and Turkey In Nuclear Weapons because Russia and America work further for next-level development in advanced Nuclear weapons
US President Donald Trump said he did not understand the hype around the situation with the launch of DPRK missiles, reports TASS.
“They did not conduct a nuclear test. They actually did not test any other missiles except short-range missiles, that is, such things that a lot of other countries are experiencing, ”Trump said.
The hatred of Iran by Israel and its vassals stems from Iran’s stern refusal to accept the brutal muderous regime that occupies Palestine.
The Supreme Leader just pointed out to a visiting Hamas delegation, that without a doubt, Tehran’s support of the Palestinians come at a price, but its a price that Tehran is prepared to pay, because it was its religious and moral duty to do so.
All this hate coming Iran’s way would disappear overnight if Iran should opt to abandon the Resistance – because Israel would then instruct its minions – like Trump – to standdown.
Iran owing to its principles will not do this.
Western countries have all capitulated in abject humiliation to Zionist interests, and specifically where Israel is concerned.
Having capitulated, they now try to strong arm and bully everyone else to do likewise.
By refusing to go along to “get along” Iran acts as a constant irritant, for these sellouts and Zionist lackeys.
But – God willing- the Islamic Republic will not change course, and will continue to speak truth to power, and act accordingly.
Israel is a brutal regime that on a daily basis perpetrates war crimes against the Palestinians and others, and basic human decency demands that it be held to account.
If by doing this, Iran is villified then so be it!
Selah
How odd it is that ‘hamas’ means evil-doing in Hebrew. Perhaps not when one recalls that Hamas was created by the Israelis to help marginalise and destroy the PLO, and denigrate the Palestinians as ‘terrorwists’. A bit like the audacity of creating the ludicrous ISIS as an acronym for the Western created salafist butchers attacking Syria, when it is another name for the MOSSAD- the Israeli Secret Intelligence Service. Aren’t they clever? They say so, interminably.
I have a question regarding military strategy but first some background.
We Americans have been inculcated with stories of heroic combat in the Pacific during World War II. One of those pitched battles was Iwo Jima, where 6,800 U.S. Marines and Navy sailors lost their lives to secure the island. A monument was erected in Washington, DC that depicted the raising of the American flag on Mount Suribachi.
I have recently learned that Iwo Jima was not critical to the war effort; that it was in fact a questionable plan crafted by certain generals and bureaucrats in the Pentagon in the belief that a victory would secure any doubt as to the need to maintain the U.S. Marine Corps as an infantry fighting force separate from the U.S. Army.
Iwo Jima is approximately 1,200 nautical miles form Okinawa, Japan, a long distance to fly by air or sail by water. Here is one opinion that disagrees with the need for the U.S. to capture the island (see: https://www.checkpointasia.net/the-celebrated-battle-of-iwo-jima-was-really-a-victory-for-japan-video/ .
Let’s look at the geography of Iwo Jima
(see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwo_Jima#Geography ).
Look at a closer picture; focus on Mount Suribachi (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Iwo_Jima_Suribachi_DN-SD-03-11845.JPEG ).
The mountain is 528 feet high and the Japanese heavily fortified it against an invasion. The battle took about 5 weeks, with over 19,000 U.S. wounded. Materials lost were: one U.S. escort carrier sunk (U.S.S. Bismarck), another escort carrier damaged (U.S.S. Lunga Point), one fleet carrier heavily damaged (U.S.S. Saratoga) and laid waste to 137 armored tanks. Although the Japanese lost the island, they were able to shed a great deal of American blood and destroyed military hardware.
Okay, so what? Please allow me to explain where I’m headed with this bit of war history.
Now here is the geography of Hormuz Island (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormuz_Island ).
Here is a closer picture (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Khezr_Beach,_Hormoz_Island,_Persian_Gulf,_Iran,_02-09-2008.jpg ).
The peak is 610 feet high. It appears that it could be bastioned as an Iranian defensive base like Iwo Jima was during World War II.
Finally the question I ask our community military strategists, (Saker, Larchmonter445, Auslander, et al).
What if the Persians fortified it like the Japanese did on Iwo Jima and then planted some sort of “story” that would entice the U.S. to attack Hormuz Island? The purpose would be to capture and hold it as a staging area to launch a subsequent ground incursion into Iran?
Is this a possible strategy and will military history repeat itself?
Warfare has changed quite a bit since WW2.Fortifying the island would only make sense if the increased reach of weapon systems is worth the effort. I am not an expert but I am pretty sure the Iranian coast has a good number of anti-ship and AA systems, so why fortify the rock only a few km away from the coast.
But that is all pretty meaningless, because the moment the US goes crazy, Iranians/Hezbollah will retaliate, and then then we are are just one hair away from the Isreali Regime launching nukes.
As I’ve said, the obvious US goal here is a blockade of Iranian oil shipments out of the Gulf – pursuant to Trump’s stated goal of “no Iran oil sold.”
This is how you get a war started, because a blockade is an act of war. The US wants Iran to close the Straits so it can blame Iran for starting the war – because of course the ignorant US population will believe that. The only way to get Iran to close the Straits without (hopefully) firing a shot is to start seizing and blocking Iranian ships from leaving the Gulf.
The only reason the US is asking the EU to join it in the fake excuse of “escorting” ships is to get some sort of “coalition” cover for its actions. But in the end, it’s irrelevant. The US will “go it alone” if it has to in order to get the Iran war started.
Iran, as Magnier suggests, has its finger on the trigger and will press it the minute Trump crosses an Iran red line. In my view, Iran should be preparing its civilian infrastructure to withstand a US air campaign as soon as possible to the degree possible. In addition, Iran should be alert for any possibility to launch a surprise attack on US assets in the region as soon as Trump crosses a red line – don’t wait for the US to launch an all-out air and naval attack in response to some Iranian action. Do like the Japanese did at Pearl Harbor – launch once it is clear war is going to happen.
Consider how much damage Iran can do with its missiles if the US is unprepared for the attack even hours in advance. Iran could conceivable gain crucial time to get its forces underground and relative secure before the US could retaliate while simultaneously destroying much of the US military infrastructure in the region. There are limits to what Iran can do within a short time, but any advantage will be valuable when confronting an enemy as powerful as the US.
“Observers may be excused for mistaking it for a Monty Python sketch”
On the contrary, observers should grow balls to realize that the Jewish Mafia’s modus operandi is fooling goys with Monty Python sketches. Mind you, this madness has method. Only the absurd, the over-the-top, the grotesque, the shocking, the Orwellian has enough impact on the human mind to traumatize and paralyze human cognition. Mass mind control 101.
I quote: “If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the price of oil will rise to a thousand dollars a barrel representing over 45 percent of global GDP, crashing the $2.5 quadrillion derivatives market and creating a world depression of unprecedented proportions.”
This means that the Iranians have the whole house of cards Ponzi scheme Western scam masquerading as economies by the throat.
Maybe only self-survival prevented them from squeezing and choking the West to oblivion.