If my view, this scenario leaves out one Russian option. Even if the US/NATO were able to suppress Russian defenses in Syria, Russia still has the option of taking out the US fleets using missiles fired from Russian corvettes in the Black Sea, in the same manner they were used against Syrian targets previously. And those attacks need NOT be nuclear warheads, which would provide a restraint against US retaliatory nuclear strikes on Russian territory. Russia could do a lot of damage to the US fleet using conventional warheads.
There is also the possibility of using Russian subs against the fleet as well as conventional warhead cruise missiles from Russian heavy bombers standing far off from the US fleet.
The point is that the US military planners will have to consider these Russian options if they intend to try to suppress Russian defenses in Syria.
My guess is that the US is not prepared to go to WWIII over Syria any more than Russia is. They MAY be prepared to RISK WWIII, however. But I suspect if Russia puts up a credible defense against any such early attacks on Syrian forces and threatens worse as well as going to the UN Security Council in emergency session, I suspect the US will back down rather than retaliating.
While the US 5th fleet has indeed the capability to overwhelm the US and Syrian air defense systems and the Russian military base at Khmeimim, it is very unlikely that the entire Russian fleet in the Mediterranean will go down without inflicting a lot of damage to the NATO ships. One just has to put himself in the shoes of a Russian ship’s commander, who knows that in the next 2-3 minutes his ship will like be obliterated by a salvo of NATO missiles. What do think they he will do? Since Russian navy would likely know the exact position of the each US ship , and likely of some of NATO’s submarines in eastern Mediterranean sea, one can easily imagine the hell fire they would unleash. Russian ships may not be that great or numerous, but when it comes to radar and missile technology my bet is on the Russians. Yes the Russian air base my go up in flames in case of major escalation, likely most if not all of their ships and subs in the Med, but not before sending the entire NATO fleet in the Med and Red sea to the bottom of ocean. I call that a draw.
No need for Russia to do anything. The same US threat of an overwhelimg attack existed against the Syrian army back in 2013 when it was fighting alone without Russia and the US fleet turned back at the last minute without firing a shot.
The reason is simple. Iran and Hezbollah had threatened to retaliate against a US attack on Syria by;
1- Attacking and sinking the US fleet in the Persian Gulf
2- Attacking US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE and Oman
3- Closing the Strait of Hormuz
4-Showering Israel with thousands of missiles followed by land invasion deep into northern Israel.
The above consequences made Obama change his mind and call off the attack.
If the US is crazy enough and decides to renew the threat and go ahead with an attack on Syria then all of the above will take place and you have to add the following;
1- Russian counter strike against the attacking assets such as shooting down cruise missiles, downing attacking aircrafts, and sinking vessels in the Mediterranean.
2- Russian annexation of eastern Ukraine.
3- Russia closes airspace for all Europe to Asia flights
4- Russia blocks all US resupplies lines for its Afghanistan mission that go through Russian territory. This will kill off US and Nato presence in Afghanistan.
So far, we have not considered what China is going to do in the far east as surely it is not going to sit back and watch the US attack Russia without consequences.
The Chinese are not inclined to allow themselves to be automatically drawn directly into any Russia- US confrontation.
What China might do in an indirect manner is to probably use the time wisely and ‘reintegrate’ with the ‘renegade province’ of Taiwan by overwhelming its defences with tremendous force.
This would act as a major distraction to the US that has pledged to defend Taiwan.
This development would force the US to think long and hard about any prolonged military engagement with Russia
Dealing with Russia and China simultaneously is the nightmare scenario that keeps the Pentagon Planners up at nights.
If this plays out the US would use the UNSC to quickly reach some form of political ‘understanding’ with Russia, thereby saving whats left of their face.
Whilst the scenarios presented by SouthFront may be credible, facts on the ground at the time of writing tend to militate against this. The Russians appear to have exploited what is effectively an interregnum in the US following Trumps election, by launching what appears to be a long-planned, well thought out renewal of the anti-ISIS offensive targetting Homs and Idlib. There is no appetite for conflict with the Russians in most of the US and Obama want’s to leave office with as many of his programmes and as much of his dignity intact as possible, plus the fact that the current Mosul offensive has tended to focus attention there. In recent days it is clear that the impact of Trump’s win has continued to preoccupy Obama and his responses to questions during various interviews have been – at least to my Brit eyes – halting and uncertain.
Returning to the renewed Russian assault on ISIS, it seems clear that Moscow sees this as the end game and it appears that the Obama administration are accepting that their ploys have finally failed, in that to date there has been no identifiable military riposte. There is now a perceptible shift, albeit a slight one in MSM reportage of Syria; like Obama, they are no longer sure of things; as with Trump’s election the old certainties no longer apply and it may be that they are finally recognising that the global power of the US is now much diminished. On the economic front Dmitry Orlov’s recent interview has pinpointed the US’s parlous state. There are wild cards still being played in the game, notably Turkey and Israel, nor can the Kurds be discounted. Iran is really the lynchpin in the Middle East and if Trumps administration includes the likes of John Bolton, further, serious troubles can be expected in the region and this includes Syria. Any moves against Iran will at the very least attract the attention of China, but that’s another story.
If my view, this scenario leaves out one Russian option. Even if the US/NATO were able to suppress Russian defenses in Syria, Russia still has the option of taking out the US fleets using missiles fired from Russian corvettes in the Black Sea, in the same manner they were used against Syrian targets previously. And those attacks need NOT be nuclear warheads, which would provide a restraint against US retaliatory nuclear strikes on Russian territory. Russia could do a lot of damage to the US fleet using conventional warheads.
There is also the possibility of using Russian subs against the fleet as well as conventional warhead cruise missiles from Russian heavy bombers standing far off from the US fleet.
The point is that the US military planners will have to consider these Russian options if they intend to try to suppress Russian defenses in Syria.
My guess is that the US is not prepared to go to WWIII over Syria any more than Russia is. They MAY be prepared to RISK WWIII, however. But I suspect if Russia puts up a credible defense against any such early attacks on Syrian forces and threatens worse as well as going to the UN Security Council in emergency session, I suspect the US will back down rather than retaliating.
While the US 5th fleet has indeed the capability to overwhelm the US and Syrian air defense systems and the Russian military base at Khmeimim, it is very unlikely that the entire Russian fleet in the Mediterranean will go down without inflicting a lot of damage to the NATO ships. One just has to put himself in the shoes of a Russian ship’s commander, who knows that in the next 2-3 minutes his ship will like be obliterated by a salvo of NATO missiles. What do think they he will do? Since Russian navy would likely know the exact position of the each US ship , and likely of some of NATO’s submarines in eastern Mediterranean sea, one can easily imagine the hell fire they would unleash. Russian ships may not be that great or numerous, but when it comes to radar and missile technology my bet is on the Russians. Yes the Russian air base my go up in flames in case of major escalation, likely most if not all of their ships and subs in the Med, but not before sending the entire NATO fleet in the Med and Red sea to the bottom of ocean. I call that a draw.
No need for Russia to do anything. The same US threat of an overwhelimg attack existed against the Syrian army back in 2013 when it was fighting alone without Russia and the US fleet turned back at the last minute without firing a shot.
The reason is simple. Iran and Hezbollah had threatened to retaliate against a US attack on Syria by;
1- Attacking and sinking the US fleet in the Persian Gulf
2- Attacking US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE and Oman
3- Closing the Strait of Hormuz
4-Showering Israel with thousands of missiles followed by land invasion deep into northern Israel.
The above consequences made Obama change his mind and call off the attack.
If the US is crazy enough and decides to renew the threat and go ahead with an attack on Syria then all of the above will take place and you have to add the following;
1- Russian counter strike against the attacking assets such as shooting down cruise missiles, downing attacking aircrafts, and sinking vessels in the Mediterranean.
2- Russian annexation of eastern Ukraine.
3- Russia closes airspace for all Europe to Asia flights
4- Russia blocks all US resupplies lines for its Afghanistan mission that go through Russian territory. This will kill off US and Nato presence in Afghanistan.
So far, we have not considered what China is going to do in the far east as surely it is not going to sit back and watch the US attack Russia without consequences.
The Chinese are not inclined to allow themselves to be automatically drawn directly into any Russia- US confrontation.
What China might do in an indirect manner is to probably use the time wisely and ‘reintegrate’ with the ‘renegade province’ of Taiwan by overwhelming its defences with tremendous force.
This would act as a major distraction to the US that has pledged to defend Taiwan.
This development would force the US to think long and hard about any prolonged military engagement with Russia
Dealing with Russia and China simultaneously is the nightmare scenario that keeps the Pentagon Planners up at nights.
If this plays out the US would use the UNSC to quickly reach some form of political ‘understanding’ with Russia, thereby saving whats left of their face.
thanks to first 3 commentators for your additional thoughts, and southfront.
Whilst the scenarios presented by SouthFront may be credible, facts on the ground at the time of writing tend to militate against this. The Russians appear to have exploited what is effectively an interregnum in the US following Trumps election, by launching what appears to be a long-planned, well thought out renewal of the anti-ISIS offensive targetting Homs and Idlib. There is no appetite for conflict with the Russians in most of the US and Obama want’s to leave office with as many of his programmes and as much of his dignity intact as possible, plus the fact that the current Mosul offensive has tended to focus attention there. In recent days it is clear that the impact of Trump’s win has continued to preoccupy Obama and his responses to questions during various interviews have been – at least to my Brit eyes – halting and uncertain.
Returning to the renewed Russian assault on ISIS, it seems clear that Moscow sees this as the end game and it appears that the Obama administration are accepting that their ploys have finally failed, in that to date there has been no identifiable military riposte. There is now a perceptible shift, albeit a slight one in MSM reportage of Syria; like Obama, they are no longer sure of things; as with Trump’s election the old certainties no longer apply and it may be that they are finally recognising that the global power of the US is now much diminished. On the economic front Dmitry Orlov’s recent interview has pinpointed the US’s parlous state. There are wild cards still being played in the game, notably Turkey and Israel, nor can the Kurds be discounted. Iran is really the lynchpin in the Middle East and if Trumps administration includes the likes of John Bolton, further, serious troubles can be expected in the region and this includes Syria. Any moves against Iran will at the very least attract the attention of China, but that’s another story.