Okay, the picture of what is going on is getting clearer. First, besides Donetsk, Kharkov and Lugansk there were also heavy clashes in Nikolaev. Second, the tactic of the authorities is now becoming clearer:
1) First, cordon off the rebellious city (done in all four cities mentioned above).
2) Second, cordon off as best can be the city center (also done in all four).
3) Third, send in loyal cops from other cities.
4) Try to negotiate by sending in representatives.
5) Scare people off by announcing an “anti-terrorist” operation.
6) Threatening to introduce martial law.
7) Kidnap locally elected officials.
8) Fire most of the local police (officially about 30% will be fired).
9 ) Bring in special punitive/terror detachments (including Right Sector and, reportedly, foreign mercenaries, possibly ex-Blackwater types).
10) Cut off electricity and supplies.
So far, this has apparently worked successfully in Nikolaev and Kharkov were forces favorable to the new revolutionary regime in Kiev seem to be in control. Luganks seem to be waiting for an assault tonight, as does Donetsk.
 |
| Crackdown in Kharkov |
What is particularly worrisome to me is that all the footage I have seen appears to be showing only truly unarmed and, frankly, poorly organized civilians. The barricades they have erected are a big fat joke and the APCs of the pro-regime forces will waltz through them.
Also, nowhere do I see any organized local forces (cops, military, SBU, DAI, etc.) trying to lead the preparations to defend their cities. At best, they are only remaining neutral and refusing to crack-down on the local population.
To make things worse, I have seen no footage of weapons other than bats. No firearms at all, nevermind something more useful like 30mm guns or ant-tank weapons. Worst of all, I see absolutely no radios as everybody seems to rely on cellphone which the regime can disconnect at any time.
Finally, nobody seems to be in charge – there is no one leader, no real resistance HQ, no coordination and therefore probably no reconnaissance or intelligence components.
In other words, this all looks very bad, at least from the footage I have seen.
The one thing the locals seem to have is bigger numbers and a lot of very determination, but that will not be enough against a well-coordinated attack lead by well-armed thugs and APCs.
The contrast between these Russian-speakers and the neo-Nazis on the Maidan is striking. The latter did have a clear chain of commands (they were organized in groups of 10s then 100s), lots of radios, firearms and the support of well-trained organizers. And all they faced were pretty well-trained (but not nearly “Spetsnaz” level, not by a huge margin) riot cops with nothing but batons and flashbang and teargas grenades.
I hope that the Russian speakers get organized fast, really really fast.
Stay tuned,
The Saker
there is a typo, you mean contrast not contact, near the end of text
@Anonymous: there is a typo,
Not any more, but thanks to you of course :-)
Thanks, my sloppy typing is a nightmare, I know, so thanks a lot for helping with this small but annoying problem!
Cheers,
The Saker
My God, it’s like Occupy with the occasional baseball bat! oh oh oh oh oh How did they possibly think they’d survive, much less prevail? How?
“To make things worse, I have seen no footage of weapons other than bats. No firearms at all, nevermind something more useful like 30mm guns or ant-tank weapons. Worst of all, I see absolutely no radios as everybody seems to rely on cellphone which the regime can disconnect at any time.
Finally, nobody seems to be in charge – there is no one leader, no real resistance HQ, no coordination and therefore probably no reconnaissance or intelligence components.
In other words, this all looks very bad, at least from the footage I have seen.”
Ah! So you are eager to see more blood?
Are you sure that would a “winning strategy”?
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1529634.html
Here is a link re: Lugansk
http://odnarodyna.com.ua/content/vecherniy-gimn-rossii-v-luganske-8-aprelya-2014
Saker’s situation summary omits a major fact: The number of demonstrators on the streets is smallish. Itar-tass has reported “several thousand” demonstrators in each of the big eastern cities. Others have put the number at “couple of thousand”.
This number of protesters is too small for them to qualify as representatives of the local people of the cities they are in.
In Saker’s overview he focuses on a lack of demonstrator organization to take over central city territory and hold it. I say this focus is misplaced unless and until the demonstrators’ numbers can be increased by a major amount.
The fact is, the pro-Russian Ukrainians are overwhelmingly choosing to stay at home. That’s been true all along and is still true today.
(PS: And in the hypothetical scenario where the numbers increased by a major amount, the organizational issues wouldn’t be a big problem then either, I’d say).
Washington and NATO’s New Surrealpolitik
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/04/09/washington-and-nato-new-surrealpolitik.html
Probably everyone would have stayed home in Crimea too, but then the polite green men arrived.
You know what the difference is here?
The Nazis were trained by USA, russia isnt training any of these eastern civilians.
Crazy Ivan says…
@ Anon 08 April, 2014 17:00
From rebellion/uprising point of view The Saker is right. But.
Banderovtsy were getting ready for taking power for several dozens of years. They __set__ the goals, then wrote blueprints, received money and off they go – organizing, equipping and training.
Russians in the East of Ukraine were taken by surprise. Those who try to act in sort of military way (wielding real weapons – Lugansk) are former militia, soldiers, “active” youths, etc. (and “emeritus” Cossacks(sic!)).
Those from the Western part of current “Ukraine” know how to fight against any authority as they did it several times in their history and are being taught how to do it in schools and in homes.
Have the Eastern counterparts the same experience? I doubt. But they are proud Russians. So give them a little time to see, experience and understand what they are living for and the South-Eastern Ukraine (spitting down!) will become Novorossiya.
Guys from Donetsk and Lugansk (Russian TV):
– Donetsk, “In case the people in Kiev give orders to shoot at us, it will be sheer madness on their part.
Our people here have fought in Afghan and other hot places, it’s impossible to frighten them, they know how to fight”…
– Lugansk, in a room with lots of new guns (AK, not yet used by anybody, taken by the guys from SBU HQ earlier): “We are not going to use the guns till smb starts killing us. And they shall be sorry if they start shooting. Unfortunately the orders have already been given – we know it for sure – to attack us, with no hostages or PoWs needed”.
Lugansk guys seem to be organized and armed much better than the two other centers of resistance – Kharkov & Donetsk…
always forgetting the name (post with news from Donetsk & Lugansk):
shed
I took a quick look at the way the news out of Ukraine today (8 Apr 2014) is being reported at RT.com , en.RIA.ru , and VoiceOfRussia.com . There’s not much about Ukraine at those sites today overall, and almost all of it is about “diplomatic” remarks by the foreign ministries of Russia and USA, and remarks by officials of the Kiev gov’t. In particular, they’re reporting almost nothing from on the ground in eastern Ukraine. I believe this is intelligent reporting. And I believe Saker’s reporting is NOT intelligent. Saker is overinterpreting and misinterpreting the current situation, imo.
Here’s an example of the dull but more fairly representative reporting of what happened in Ukraine today (8 Apr 2014): http://rt.com/news/kiev-clashes-rioters-police-571/
Русские не сдаются @RussiansForward 5 min
#Факты@rus_improvisation http://vk.cc/2tczFS
http://vk.com/video197652473_168340516?list=ffc2bd5c70332ff8d1&og=1
Saker,
I’m with parviziyi. My take was that the turnout is both small and amateurish, and thereby unconvincing and easily suppressed.
I remember a very effective protest in Hong Kong a few years ago where more than 500k came and stood silent while the Legislative Council considered a Beijing sponsored law that would inhibit free speech. It was an overwhelming show of protest. The implications were obvious, and LegCo abandoned the debate.
You’ve pointed out in the past that Russia can help SE Ukraine only if they help themselves first. “A couple/few thousand” simply doesn’t cut it.
http://vk.com/video92586637_168248109?list=0d7addce367872eeb9&og=1
Unlike in Crimea, antimaydan cant expect the “polite armed men in green” to keep the “impolite armed men in brown” and the “language challenged armed men in black” away. Antimaydan doesn’t have the numbers yet to force the issue on their own, either.
Their current strategy, if I understand correctly, is to keep challenging the banderivtsy for a federation set up, not to break off from the Ukraine and join Russia. That seems the wisest move now, given that they don’t have very large numbers or any muscle to speak of. Also, as the zionazi west seem intent on the Ukraine remaining together, antimaydan are more likely to push through a federation deal with Kiev, than they would be able to pull off independence.
If Israel-America-EU are after a Syrian or Libyan scenario for Ukraine which is quite possible, given weakening and dividing Russia is their main goal, then it will have to be up to the Russians to stop them and prevent the Ukraine degrading into that sort of chaos. How, I don’t know.
вот так
“This number of protesters is too small for them to qualify as representatives of the local people of the cities they are in.”
In proportion to local population and comparing Maidan numbers for most of it’s duration (also drawing from national pool), I’m not sure if there’s a huge difference. How many towns and cities have demonstrations now in SE?, that are splitting up all the protestors? If it was all in one location, I don’t see how it would be that far off from Maidan’s overall trajectory.
But yeah, somebody get these guys some (encrypted) radios, veterans might have a role in organizing/basic training, and hopefully local police step up more…
I’m curious about the “accomodation” in Dnipro, activists using city headquarters seems a convenient location to round a bunch of central people up at a moment’s notice, as well as have their meetings bugged, I can’t believe having a nice conference room to meet in overweighs those concerns… Not to mention they are voluntarily splitting themselves from associating with anybody does call for “separatism” etc.
Украинские власти пообещали не штурмовать здание УСБ в Луганске (Ukrainian authorities have promised not to storm the building CSS in Lugansk)
http://lifenews.ru/news/130855
(auto trans) “This is the result of the first round of talks with representatives of the pro-Russian activists of the new authorities of Ukraine. Lay ahead for another round.
In Lugansk passed the first round of talks between pro-Russian activists and Secretary of the National Security and Defense of Ukraine Andrei Parubiya.
As the correspondent of LifeNews c scene, chat lasted long. The result was a statement Andrew Parubiya that the police will not storm the building CSS in Lugansk. At 22 o’clock on the Ukrainian-time kicks off the second round of negotiations.
On the square in front of the building in the city center, several thousand people gathered, people get on stage and speak freely, here work is organized field kitchen. Residents of the city are not going to diverge and are willing to stand here all night.
On April 7, Lugansk protesters occupied the CSS and keep it still. Their demands are related to the need for a referendum and federalization.
– We, the Joint Staff of the Army of the southeast, promise that, if not met our demands, we will move to an open confrontation, – said one of the activists on the record. – We call the building regional SBU Lugansk region, which is completely under our control. We invite all residents of south and south-east of Ukraine to support the requirements that apply to all. It’s time to speak up for their rights and values. In recent days, our army increased manifold, but without everyone’s support, we can not change anything. Rise, south-east!
On the same day in Lugansk Kiev sent as his representative and Andrew Parubiya Valentine Nalivaychenko.
Activist vigilante groups Yuri Hermes told LifeNews, in Lugansk moved tanks and soldiers of the National Guard of Ukraine.
– People are inflated. Lugansk people demand a referendum on self-determination. Negotiations were held with representatives of the Ministry of Internal Affairs difficult. Now we have received information that at Lugansk are six tanks and soldiers of the National Guard. We do not intend to retreat. Only a referendum! – Activist said.”
вот так
Russian Language Enjoying a Boost in Post-Soviet States
83% of Ukrainians chose to take this Gallup poll (done in 2008) in Russian instead of Ukrainian. So the hunta’s refusal to give Russian the same status as Ukrainian is simply crazy.
One way the Russians can help the Ukraine is by setting an example in Crimea on how good it is to have Russia as a friend. For instance:
Депутаты Госдумы решили превратить Крым в экологически чистую зону (Duma deputies decided to make Crimea ecologically clean zone)
http://lifenews.ru/news/130845
(auto trans) “Coordinator of the party “United Russia” on environmental issues Tsybko Constantine told about the first steps in the fight for the purity of the peninsula.
Duma deputies offer to do the environmental zone of the Crimea. According to them, on the peninsula can successfully develop green building and the use of alternative energy sources.
Coordinator of the party “United Russia” on environmental issues Tsybko Constantine told LifeNews about the first steps in the struggle for purity.
– Ecological status of Crimea is now alarming. Here there is a huge number of landfills, which must be combated. Necessary to carry out a large and serious work to eliminate them – says Tsybko. – Now the pollution level waste, including MSW, is very high, and we have a program to clean up the territory that we are going to apply, and results will be achieved quickly enough.
According to the coordinator of the party “United Russia” on environmental issues, on the peninsula there is a problem with the water supply, which also need to be addressed first.
– Ukraine can not stop water of Crimea, it goes against all international norms. Water supply problem there, and it can be solved – says Konstantin Tsybko. – There are many ways to get water from artesian wells for example, and many others. So that problems can be solved.
According to Constantine Tsybko measure investments in the purity of the peninsula until early as the time of transformation in the Crimea ecological paradise.”
вот так
Any western “victory” will be only temporary, because terror and bloodshed cannot change the people’s will. Just the opposite, it will turn against them very soon.
They turned Napoleon and Hitler back. They kicked bolshevics once
They will do this twice !
Russia needs to sit this one out; it’s a trap.
The poor folks on the ground have already been told that they will not be getting assistance from Russia in the near future.
What they need to do is take practical steps to Russify their areas and to push for a referendum.
After the elections in May, the terrain will be much clearer and the Russians can wait until the Kiev regime stumbles, or the West gets distracted. Even without those near-certainties, time is on the side of the Russians as the economic gradient faces East.
Russia needs to be prepared, but also to fight the culture war and to build up the economy and infrastructure of the Crimea, as well as Russia generally.
While the Ukrainians sacrificed themselves to betray Russia during the Olympics*, Putin and co made them pay by taking the jewel of the Black Sea. The rest will happen in due time.
* I am still waiting for the average Ukrainian to get pissed off about this. Perhaps they are just dullards?
1/2
hi, i came across your blog some time in feb., and have been reading a lot here since then. before i write this wall of text i want to thank you very much for your effort. your posts and also a lot of the commentators here provide much insight, updates about current events and background information. i would be happy if you could give me an opinion about my evaluation of the current situation.
my background is not millitary or anything like that, its social sciences and media sciences- so i am wathing this from a dociological perspective. but i am quite familiar with the conflict of yugoslavia, and the playbook on ukraine looks pretty much the same. the goal is to either push russia into a civil war, or use it as an excuse for a new cold war. i think the original plan was to provoke unrest in crimea- like
protests before mil. bases and get russian troops involved. but that failed so far.
so the question is, what should russia do in this situation?
i accually think that russia does NOT want the south-east to rise up.
1)there are several reasons for that- and the first is that they do not want sanctions. its self exlaining. nothing happened so far.
2)the second is probalby that they don’t want the south east – even without any sanctions attached, for economic reasons
from an economical point of view, the territory has a GDP of less than 100 Billion USD. thats 5% of russian GDP. the costs of integrating the territory would be immense. there are some important industries, but they can be moved to russia. the fact they stayed in ukraine was because its a low wage country. crimea added some offshore gas, and probalby tourism, but the rest of the south east has nothing what russia needs.
from an economic point of view, a heavy brain drain from ukraine to russia is the best option. let the EU pay for pensions and education, russia reaps the benefits. young and highly educated people might move to russia permanently- and there might be lots of migrant workers for cheap labour too.
3) the third reason is security issues: those bandera-guys will start terror attacks, provoke unrest. crimea is as easy to defend as it gets. the tartars will gep payed off and will get propaganda from tartarstan. crimea adds to national security, the rest of the south east is a liability to national security.
Maybe it’s for the best, Saker: Well before Sochi, the blogosphere observed that the demonization of Putin and Russia was like Sadam and Iraq in 2002, that the flames of war were being fanned. The crazy, obvious lies of Kerry, NATO, and the EU now, about a non-existent troop build-up along the border (a NATO spokesman claimed lack of evidence was itself evidence of Russia’s cunning “maskirovka” before an attack !), about paid Russian provocateurs in the East, with Ukrainian armor massed at the border (no matter however inefficient) as evident in the NBC News and London Daily Mail border surveys, and their increasingly bellicose threats, are fanning the flames even more. It’s all reminiscent of 1914, when we now know Germany egged Austria on, intending to smash Russia before it got too strong, and the Russians were suckered into it. The Ukraine may be playing the part of Austria in 1914, with the West egging them on.
Russia would do well to stay out of it, leaving the East to its fate, unless a region somehow convenes its legislature and pleads for help (maybe not even then, which could be part of the plot). The only real Russian vital interest is the Arabat Spit along the Crimean coast, still part of the Ukraine, giving title to half the Sea of Azov. The SovFed could easily extend the RF border around it, as part of the Crimea Khrushchev gave away, and Russia could easily occupy it. A good date would be May 26, one day after the first presidential round, when everything is in flux, and which is also a U.S. public holiday. Russia should avoid another 1914 again, in any event, until it is strong enough to prevail.
2/2
4)the propaganda-front: so far, “the west” made (heavy) dents in russias image, but it failed to demoize russia and putin as much as they wanted to- their propaganda is more and more ridiculed. if russia wants to hold on to the ability to make counter-propaganda, about issues like f. ex. syria/iran, this should probably not get much worse. so far, nothing happened, russia has not killed anyone, the western demonization pretty much failed. and they tried hard- maybe too hard.
these reasons make me come to the conclusion that its currently NOT in the interest of russia for the east to “rise up”. and i think their messages on RT and other official new-outlets hint at that direction. there are hardly any reports about demonstrations- the numbers seem artificially low (the crowds in videos look bigger). they themselves spread “horror” stories about blackwater-mercs “coming for them”. during crimea, they were spreading “positive” propaganda- like flagship switching sided, higher numbers of protesters, lots of positive pics. but also “scary” propaganda towards the ukrainian regime and military – large drills, reports about massive refugees, and so on.
i think that russia really wants what it officially said: a federalization so that there is peace in ukraine, and no economic distruption.
BUT- and thats the real dilemma here: there are obviously a lot of people who accually want to become part of russia, and/or a seperate state.
but its also obvious to me that they are not coordianted by professionals. (its as usually always the exact opposite of what US/EU media claimes…)
the problem here is that “the west” DESPERATELY WANTS russia to intervene. because thats how they want to kick off their cold war 2.0- with all that comes with it: increased acceptance for suveilance also in europe, probalby some european homeland security- more defense expensions, and the highly unpopular trade agreement with the us (TTIP). russia could be blamed as the force behind all coming protests in south/eastern europe, and countless other benefits.
the puppets in kiew cry about an imminent invasion since about a month now.
the problem that i see is more that there is a real armed uprising in the south/east, and that they will kill someone, giving kiew/the us an excuse to start the civil war they always wanted. they might stage false flags, or heroically repell fake invasions- but if there is no accualy uprising going on, thats much more difficult to pull off.
this is not what at least a good portion of the “russophile” part of ukraine wants, but it would probably be the best for the general interests of russia…
the ukraine will also be a HUGHE burden for europe, even without a civil war…
Maybe it’s for the best, Saker: Well before Sochi, the blogosphere observed that the demonization of Putin and Russia was like Sadam and Iraq in 2002, that the flames of war were being fanned. The crazy, obvious lies of Kerry, NATO, and the EU now, about a non-existent troop build-up along the border (a NATO spokesman claimed lack of evidence was itself evidence of Russia’s cunning “maskirovka” before an attack !), about paid Russian provocateurs in the East, with Ukrainian armor massed at the border (no matter however inefficient) as evident in the NBC News and London Daily Mail border surveys, and their increasingly bellicose threats, are fanning the flames even more. It’s all reminiscent of 1914, when we now know Germany egged Austria on, intending to smash Russia before it got too strong, and the Russians were suckered into it. The Ukraine may be playing the part of Austria in 1914, with the West egging them on.
Russia would do well to stay out of it, leaving the East to its fate, unless a region somehow convenes its legislature and pleads for help (maybe not even then, which could be part of the plot). The only real Russian vital interest is the Arabat Spit along the Crimean coast, still part of the Ukraine, giving title to half the Sea of Azov. The SovFed could easily extend the RF border around it, as part of the Crimea Khrushchev gave away, and Russia could easily occupy it. A good date would be May 26, one day after the first presidential round, when everything is in flux, and which is also a U.S. public holiday. Russia should avoid another 1914 again, in any event, until it is strong enough to prevail.
Actually, I am beginning to believe John Kerry is either being blackmailed or threatened. He’s never been the sharpest knife in the drawer, but throughout his public life he’s generally been a combination of cautious and self-serving, staking out a position that he thought would be best for him. For him to say these wildly undiplomatic things is, well, I can’t ever remember him being so reckless. Phony, yes, Zionist, yes, but it’s almost like he got a John McCain transplant! Lord knows he doesn’t need the money, and I don’t really think he’s got any presidential aspirations any more, so the question remains, why? What is making a cautious person well-versed in politico-speak and legalistic hair-splitting choose such utterly outrageous and inflammatory language? What is he afraid of, or who lit what fire under him? It’s just so utterly atypical.
Having read only Saker’s reports on the developments in Kharkov, I have to congratulate the interim government in Kiev. They seem to have done everything right here:
Removed people that captured government building with minimum force, thus leaving Russian intervention out of the question.
Of course that invalidates their earlier proclamations they’d perform “anti-terror operations” on armed people. But it was nevertheless the right choice to get an easy victory first. Now they have the “moral high ground”, and the merit of being master of the situation. That’ll scare potential sympathizers.
In fact, if they manage to solve the remaining uprising equally masterfully, they’ll become the international example of how to solve these little problems of “democracy”, and leaders will flock to them to learn from their experience (the question is – who taught them this?). For now, it has given the Kiev authorities a much-needed boost in legitimacy. They handled this much better than Yanukovich, although the problem here is much smaller, admittedly.
If other groups of occupiers have indeed managed to get hold of guns, however, it might still turn into a bloodbath. And that could serve as invitation for Putin, although I very much doubt he wants to be invited in. I don’t think anybody wants to take on actual responsibility of any part of Ukraine (minus Crimea).
@Saker
This op-ed piece of yours is totally from the point of view of a pro-Russian separatist. Although I agree that the interim government lacks any democratic credentials whatsoever, being pushed into office by paid snipers, and partially paid demonstrators, and manipulating an anyway illegal vote in the Rada. But your (U.S.) government, my government, and that of almost any reader of a Western democracy might have been elected legally, but they are still only representing a select number of moneyed people, rather than the overall population – in other words: they aren’t really democratic. But for the time being, that’s what we are stuck with, and the question is, how do we fix this the least brutal way.
Same is true for Kiev. The interim government IS the de-facto power, and for demographic and military reasons, I don’t see how another “Crimea” (i.e. a bloodless annexation) can be pulled off in the south and east of Ukraine. So the pro-Russians have to be smart. Taking up arms was a bad move. It will probably lead to bloodletting, and it’ll be the pro-Russians fault – they started it. They are as illegitimate and illegal as the Kiev interims are. But by now, the interims have gained de-facto control over much of Ukraine, and thus some kind of legitimacy. The pro-Russians can’t just ignore it, because ignoring it means risking a bloodbath.
That said, I wish the pro-Russians all the best and fear that best they can do – at this point in time – is to lay down their arms, and submit to the assholes in power. The pro-Russians themselves need legitimacy, by increasing the number of supporters in the streets. And that they will hardly gain by being or looking like armed insurgents and thus turning the conflict bloody.
Honk
@ Saker and others
who seem to be bemoaning the fact that the anti-Maidan guys aren’t as “well organized” as the Maidan guys were and are yearning for the anti-Ms to become just like the Ms, except for their ultimate goal.
If they manage to do that themselves – fine! And we (or rather, Russian-blogging counterparts of us) are free to lend them our moral and intellectual support, but if what we are asking is outside support via training, providing radios, then why would that be any more legitimate than what the more extreme elements of the so-called Maidan did?
The Saker:
> The contrast between these Russian-speakers and the neo-Nazis on the Maidan is striking. The latter did have a clear chain of commands (they were organized in groups of 10s then 100s), lots of radios, firearms and the support of well-trained organizers. […]
>
> I hope that the Russian speakers get organized fast, really really fast.
mutantsushi:
> But yeah, somebody get these guys some (encrypted) radios, veterans might have a role in organizing/basic training, and hopefully local police step up more…
Honk
Saker,
I wouldn’t lose any sleep over what just happened. This is just the beginning.
The Banderists have tipped their hand on how they will respond to any crisis in the South & East.
One of the many “old school” things that I learned serving in the Imperial Forces is:
“Improvise, Adapt & Overcome”
I know my Russian cousins have been keeping a close eye on things & I’m sure our “Nazi friends in Kiev” are in for a few surprises. :)
@Nora
> I am beginning to believe John Kerry is either being blackmailed or threatened.
Politicians, especially those that run for president like Kerry in 2004, get thoroughly checked by potential supporters as well as opponents. Remember that in the lead-up of the 2004 presidential elections it was found out Kerry has Jewish roots. Which must have shocked the old Catholic (of course, I guess, he realized the benefits that come chosenness, in addition to leading an exceptional country).
However, obviously blackmailable candidates will fall through at that vetting step. And it is my conspiratorial, completely unproven belief, that absolutely un-blackmailable candidates will fall through even harder at this step – no one in their right mind would risk getting an uncontrollable person elected. After all, preparing for, executing and after-caring a JFK treatment is costly and rather annoying. Keeps you trembling off and on for decades
Which leaves those candidates that are only blackmailable by a select few (probably at certain places in the NSA and CIA).
At least that’s what I always believed, otherwise I would expect more presidents that suddenly, in mid-term or even as a lame duck, and totally unexpectedly discover a heretofore unknown part of their metaphysical body: a solid structure aka spine.
Honk
@Saker
Your latest post “Time to repeat and clarify”. This addresses my points of criticism – and relieves me from the fear you started morphing into a pro-Russian protester, myopically focused on tactics.
Honk
Saker,
I completely agree with you on most things. However, there have been almost mythical rumors of a certain well armed partisan movement. Here is an interview (in russian) from a while ago…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3sTRj9SLls
and here is one that is more recent…
I would be curious to hear what you know about them, is there any hope in them for the east?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLH5U4QMoBo
@DT:However, there have been almost mythical rumors of a certain well armed partisan movement. Here is an interview (in russian) from a while ago…
Yeah, I saw this too, but so far these folks to be better at making YouTube vids then anything else. I am most unimpressed by these. Real pros would never made vids, they would not wear balaclavas or camouflage. We can judge of the effectiveness of a resistance movement by the effect it has on the situation. I am not talking about blowing up bridges or any such big stuff. How about just building a halfway decent barricade somewhere? It would be a good start.
Sorry for being a party-pooper, but I call it as I see it. I will *gladly* change my mind.
Kind regards,
The Saker
Re: Kiev’s good execution of the crack down:
How could they fail when it is a trap of the West’s devising? The “uprising” is way ahead of Putin’s timeline, and was far too easy. It was bait to draw a mistake out of Putin.
Re: Kerry and failure: He is “failing forward” as they say, appearing to botch neocon and neolib tropes which leads to realist outcomes. His job is to look incompetent and spout idiotic rhetoric. He’s doing a fantastic job!
Russia didn’t want any of this; no one did except the International Jews. Russia merely wanted acceptance into the world order on its own terms, and Obama (et al.) was and still is prepared to give that to them.
Russia has the same problems we all have which is how to promote the economic and cultural well being of its people in a competitive and resource depleted world. These power struggles are the craft of a demented few who are on the decline and ready to exit the stage of history. Russia has a partner for peace in pockets of the West, and it is cultivating them behind the scene. Sadly, the folk of Eastern Ukraine will have to bide their time, but that is life.
Anon: “[if] the anti-Ms to become just like the Ms, except for their ultimate goal […] why would that be any more legitimate than what the more extreme elements of the so-called Maidan did?[/quote]
Because the Maidan overthrew a legitimate government, while the coup regime in Kiev is just trying to impose it’s will on those who disagree. Anti-Maidan aren’t trying to do that, they just want self-determination: if Galicia and Kiev want to go their own way, nobody is trying to stop them. Maidan also had a 100% peaceful solution for power-sharing and reform that THEY AGREED TO, but promptly turned their back on. What the ultimate goal of anti-Maidan people in Novo Rossiya is still undetermined, some surely want to accede to Russia, many would be happy with a different compromise. The putschists are answering all of those sentiments with force. The Maidan crowd denounced Yanukovych for the tactics against Maidan, stopping internal transit to prevent movement of activists, etc, which the putschists are now deploying against the anti-Maidanists. Yanukovych was never supported in that way, anti-Maidanists were not rabidly supporting his repression of the Maidan, yet now face the full brunt of the putschists. That’s the difference.
thank you Sakar i try to read your blog everday. it is such a refreshing breath of fresh media air.
The crack-down by the fascisti would have been well prepared. The situation probably appears a ‘win-win-win’ operation for the Real Evil Empire. Either the fascisti make life intolerable for Russian-speakers, who are ethnically cleansed to safety in Russia. Or chaos prevails and invites Russian intervention, whereupon Putin is further demonised and sanctions ratcheted up (this might be mollified by the plain fact that sanctions are pushing Russia into China’s arms)or Ukraine descends into chaos, and becomes a super-Chechnya, infecting the region, and a source of terrorist attacks on Russia.
Wonders never cease! I’m just watching the recent Australian Foreign Minister, Bob Carr, revealing how the local Jewish Lobby totally controlled the former PM, Julia Gillard, and how they were obsessed by winning EVERY TIME, and were simply echoes of the worst Israeli Rightists. He will now suffer the consequences of his candour.
Good luck my friends….if you really want to change I fear you will have to take up Arms against your aggressors. Otherwise, you will suffer at the end of their Arms….it is your choice.
00:25 Oh for gosh sakes! Now that makes sense. Just wish Obama could be trusted to actually take a stand on anything rather than merely yield to… whomever, whenever. Sadly, he’s about the best our system can produce — just consider the alternatives. Our ship of state is taking on water, listing badly and bobbling around madly as people keep fighting to steer her. Plus, of course, all the navigation equipment is badly out of date and for the wrong part of the ocean.
Nora, Obama has been Zionist property since recruited in College. Not the first black President, but the first Jewish President as Abner Mikvah triumphantly proclaimed. The Achilles Heel of Judaism, its congenital flaw, that undoes all the considerable good that Jews have achieved over centuries and which generates the hatred that they have suffered everywhere they have settled, is, in my opinion, the division of humanity into two camps, Us and the goyim, and the detestation of that goyish ‘Other’. It really is the institutionalisation as a ‘religion’ of a feature of psychopathy, shared in common with other gangs like the various Mafiosi, but elaborated by millennia of doctrinal invention. It seems to me that the real Golden Ages for the Jews have been in times and places like Moorish Spain, or Ottoman Iraq, where the Jews’ temptation to exploit the goyim was held in check. Of course this sort of exploitation of the masses by tiny, parasitic elites is as old as settled civilization, and is the essence of our neo-liberal capitalist world, where, unsurprisingly, the experts at this line of business have prospered and come to dominate in a manner unprecedented in history for such a tiny, separatist, group.