by Pepe Escobar for The Asia Times
From the start, the “positive chemistry” in the Mother of All Sit-Downs was a given. The format – with only the four principals, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and two translators – prevented any leaks. What was originally scheduled for 35 minutes went on for 2 hours and 16 minutes, and not even an impromptu appearance by First Lady Melania Trump – they were late for the Elbphilharmonie pomp and circumstance – managed to stop the flow.
They needed to deliver. They needed headlines. They got plenty. Including a possible first step at real cooperation; a ceasefire deal in southwestern Syria. Yet the real headline is that diplomacy beats demonization.
Still, from the toxic, overwhelmingly Russophobic Beltway point of view, that dystopia masquerading as a summit – the actual G-20 – was a mere backdrop; the only thing that mattered in this parallel G-2 was confirmation of an obsessive narrative; Russian interfered in the US elections.
Spin City gave us slightly conflicting views. Tillerson admitted “intractable” differences but stressed Trump was “rightly focused on how do we move forward”, while an uncharacteristically irritable Lavrov said Trump had accepted Putin’s denial, adding what is, in fact, the real clincher; Putin wants proof and evidence of Russian interference.
That won’t happen. The “Russian hacking” tsunami ebbs and flows, always following the same pattern; accusations by some proverbial “anonymous official” or “expert”, usually debunked. If the acronym jungle of US intel had concrete, definitive evidence, that would have been splashed on every single front page long ago.
The real test for a possible reset will be the US-Russia ceasefire in southwestern Syria. Tillerson and Lavrov had been discussing it for weeks now. And it’s a Russian idea.
Essentially, that would lead towards American/Jordanian peacekeeping forces near the Golan; Damascus allowing Iranian and Russian peacekeeping forces around the capital; Turkey ensconced between Jarablus and Al-Bab in the north with Russians around them; and the Americans in the northeast all the way to Raqqa alongside the Kurdish YPG.
In a nutshell; a regional balance of power which, assuming it holds, might slowly lead towards a final all-Syria settlement.
Jordan – and Israel – are not warring parties in Syria, and yet the deal directly concerns them. It’s not clear whether US forces will have to be back to Jordan. It’s not clear how the ceasefire will complement the Astana negotiation – the actual top frontline decider – involving Russia, Iran and Turkey. It’s not clear whether Daesh will be eradicated for good. It’s not clear whether the Pentagon will stop sporadically attacking the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).
The real big story
And then, there’s the big story of the G-20 in Hamburg, which actually started three days earlier in Moscow, in a full-fledged official summit between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Xi repeatedly extolled the “strategic alliance”, or “the fast-growing, pragmatic cooperation”, or even the “special character” of China’s ties with Russia.
Putin once again pledged to support the New Silk Roads, or One Belt, One Road initiative (Obor), “by all means”, which includes its interpenetration with the Eurasia Economic Union (EEU).
The Russian Direct Investment Fund and the China Development Bank established a joint $10 billion investment fund.
Gazprom and China’s CNPC signed a key agreement for the starting date of gas deliveries via the Power of Siberia pipeline; December 20, 2019, according to Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller. And that will be followed by the construction of Power of Siberia-2.
They kept discussing a military cooperation roadmap.
And at a closed Kremlin meeting the night before their official summit, in which they clinched yet another proverbial raft of deals worth billions of dollars, Putin and Xi developed a common North Korea strategy; “dialogue and negotiation”, coupled with firm opposition to the THAAD missile system being installed in South Korea.
Xi, in an interview to TASS, had already expounded on US missile defense – an absolute top priority for the Kremlin – “disrupting the strategic balance in the region”.
This was Putin and Xi’s third meeting in 2017 alone. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Putin had already hinted that this one, in Moscow, would be “a major event in bilateral relations.”
The giveaway: that’s where they not only deepened their joint strategy for Eurasia integration but also coordinated their common approach to Trump at the G-20. This is what a strategic partnership is all about.
How to restart a reset
Considering the toxicity levels in the Beltway, Putin and Lavrov went to the G-20 harboring no expectations that a package deal could be achieved between Russia and the US.
They knew this would be a strictly political meeting – and not economic; an easing of sanctions was out of the cards.
They also knew there’s not much Trump could offer to the Russian economy. This exhaustive report sets the record straight.
Even under sanctions, Russia should expect a “handsome recovery”, with an expected growth of 3% to 4% in 2017. There has been an “extraordinary decrease in the share of oil & gas revenue in Russia’s GDP.” Russia has “the lowest level of imports (as a share of the GDP) of all major countries.” And the clincher; Russia “must focus on China, the East, and the rest of the world.”
That’s already happening. At the BRICS meeting on the sidelines of the G-20, they called for a more open global economy and for a “rules-based, transparent, non-discriminatory, open and inclusive multilateral trading system.”
Putin and Lavrov faced Trump and Tillerson knowing full well that
political factions in the US won’t waiver in their mission to keep the tension with “peer competitors” Russia and China at a very dangerous level.
At the same time, they knew Trump and Tillerson really aim for a reset – incipient as it may be at the start.
Syria is an ultra-complex case where the sphere of influence is mostly Iranian but the hard, cold facts on the ground and in the skies are mostly Russian. With this ceasefire deal, it’s as if Putin and Lavrov are inviting a losing Washington to be part of a solution that satisfies – sort of – all parties, including Israel and Turkey.
Trump did not make any substantial concessions in Hamburg, at least according to what both Tillerson and Lavrov volunteered to disclose. The Beltway is barking that Trump gave Putin a win. As usual, they’re wrong; Putin and Trump stage-managed a win-win.
Saudi, US Foreign Ministers Discuss Qatar, Iran, Fight Against Terrorism
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201707091055375285-saudi-us-qatar-iran-terrorism/
Translation:
Saudi quislings: massa america, how can we humble slaves of yours make ourselves more useful to our ultimate massa israel?
American quislings: do as we do.
There can be no win-wins, these civilizational models are antagonistic, it’s a fight to the death.
In the long run, Russia the age-old empire, will prevail by the grace of God.
Yes, it was stage managed. The Russian ministry of foreign affairs has been working very hard behind the scenes. They have the expertise and the “Humphrey Appleby” longevity.
One of Trump’s first acts in January was to gut the US State Department.
This was needed, (essential given the hostility of the Obama hold-overs), but it did deplete the US of career people who have worked “state” for decades or so.
The Russians have complained – especially around April at the time of the “sarin” missile “tweet” attack on Syria _ that there “was no one on the US side to talk to” _ because the gaps in Trumps admin remained unfilled.
Putin (as we see from the 4-Stone interviews) is a delegator.. As is Lavrov…. A lot of people work very very very hard behind the scenes to make sure the two top men (and therefor Russia) look good and succeed.
In Trump’s business world, you can sack someone and have a replacement behind the desk that day, or within a week. Govt is a strange beast, and replacement people are not as easy to just “slot in”…… Well you *can* just replace people, but not with people of the equivalent experience and day-to-day knowledge built up,over a career.
What we are seeing is the Russians with stability and 17- 30 years of “corporate knowledge” and deep understanding of US admin.
Under the novice Trump – the outsider – this new US admin knows less than the Russians about how the US govt/admin works (on a day to day, protocol level.)
That the “first date” went so well is testimony to the hard work, patience and sheer determination for it to be a success on the part of the Russians.
* Sir Humphrey Appleby of “yes minister” and “yes Prime minister” BBC comedy fame….
** Sir Humphrey explained the “facts of life” to the new Minister Jim Hacker ……..” Ministers come and go, but we always remain”….. (Civil service being a career of 40+ years, while ministers have shelf life of maybe 5-7 years)
And another Appleby fact – pertinent to Trump- was “things don’t just happen because Ministers want them to happen….that’d be very dangerous,… We decide…”
I think Pepe gets a lot right in this overview. Best summary I have read to date. Just one minor reservation. I don’t care for the “stage-managed” bit.
” Just one minor reservation. I don’t care for the “stage-managed” bit.”
Pepe is smart, but sometimes he tries to look smarter than smart. : )
“At age 17, Alexey Drobinin took a rather odd step. The young Christian left his hometown, at the foot of Russia’s Ural Mountains, and traveled alone to Moscow to study Hebrew and the history of the Jewish people, the history of Zionism and the history of the State of Israel.
“Why is it so surprising that I went to study about Israel?” Dobrinin, now the Russian deputy ambassador to Israel, asks with a grin. “Because I’m not Jewish and I have nothing to do with Israel? There are people who study Chinese or Amharic without being Chinese or Ethiopian. Israel is a well-known country.
…
“Israel is very concerned about the fighting in Syria spilling over into Israel, and that as a result of the chaos, Iran and Hezbollah will emerge stronger at the end of the day. We are aware of that. Israel can fully count on Russia to take its interests into account in any future security, political or diplomatic arrangement having to do with Syria, which we hope to finalize in the near future.””
http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=43677
‘ Israel is a well-known country’….
No its not, countries have established borders. Israel does not, but continues to shape-shift, ever taking more Arab land. Sorry, but Israel is an ‘entity’.
Have you ever wondered why not one shingle on an Israeli ‘border-less’ outpost has been burned, while Syria and Iraq are being ravaged by war for 6 years now? All this while Israel is a Sunday afternoon drive for ISIS?
Also, Israel has every reason to very very, very worried about the outcome in Syria. If the 2006 clash with Hezbollah was any indicator, they don’t stand a fighting chance against the Syrian Arab Army, Hezbollah, who have in essence grown big muscles fighting a war of attrition against fanatical hordes.
The Israeli army is mainly composed of exchange students and the like from ‘soft’ western societies. They stand no chance. And if one throws Iran into the mix for good measure, the Arabs and Iranians will roll up the acres all the way to Tel-Aviv.
And Israel cant count on the U.S., England and FRance like in 67′ and 73′. They are in no shape to fight on the ground in the Middle East. We see how the U.S. fared, and is still faring in Afghanistan, against guys in flip-flops and bed-sheets. Armed with AK-47’s. Even the U.S. could not handle an insurgency in Iraq, which came close to routing 14 of the 16 battalion of the U.S. army. A ‘surge’ pallets of freshly printed dollar bills came in to pay off the tribal leaders and insurgents. So the U.S. could extradite itself with some kind of face.
And also, Israel and the U.S. are banking on the Kurds, but the Kurds will be surrounded in a battle-zone full of appreciating Arabs and Shia Iranians who don’t like back-stabbers. Iran, for one, will not, I repeat, will not allow for a mini-Kurdistan right in the very heart of the Shia crescent. Not going to happen, because it will be seen as an Israeli-U.S. strategic foothold.
Ya, its safe to say ‘the writing is on the wall’ for Zionism/Israel. Revert to the 67 borders, full return for Palestinians the world over, East Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian State, and full right of Muslims the world over to make a pilgrimage to the Al-Aqsa Mosque. Simple as that.
Putin’s current cease fire project does what every cease fire he has proposed has done: it freezes a strong Syrian advance. Somehow Putin apologists continue to successfully obscure the fact that there is a blazing discord between his rhetoric on the importance of maintaining Syrian territorial integrity and his actual policy, which makes Syrian territorial integrity impossible in anything but name. The picture that is forming is that of a Syria carve up. It will never be called that, of course. Israel gets a stronger hold on the Golan Heights and an expansion of the territory under its influence as well. The US gets most of the East and North. Turkey gets a big chunk of the North. Russia gets several important bases. Assad’s government gets a rump state which will be difficult to hold onto, mostly consisting of Damascus and other Western Syria cites. Assad may or may not get Deir Azzor. That won’t matter much. Iran and Hezbollah will get nothing, except perhaps tenuous association with Assad in the rump state.
Russia’s role in the Syria was has been incredibly cynical. An unbreakable pattern has been set for our dystopian global future. The Hegemon’s rule will be global. Anyone who opposes the Hegemon’s rule will be broken. The only question is what country comes next. Venezuela looks like it’s going to be in the Hegemon’s cross hairs next, possibily, but Iran is also a strong candidate.
Putin is midwife to the Hegemon’s drive towards global rule, though Putin protests otherwise. The conflicts between Putin and the US and Nato are excellent theater. They distract us beautifully.
“Russia’s role in the Syria was (?) has been incredibly cynical” – Cynical? Really? Helping the legitimate government fight against internationally funded terrorists and mercenaries is not only in Russia’s interest, it is also morally right. BTW, the Syrian, Iranian and Russian governments have never acquiesced to such a carving up of Syria or do you know otherwise?
“Putin is midwife to the Hegemon’s drive towards global rule” – This is a joke, right?
Paul is perhaps the joke. But we enjoy his comic efforts. He predictably rants here at the Vineyard and elsewhere, casting aspersions at Putin and the Russian efforts in Syria and Ukraine. It would be disappointing if for once he understood anything that was occurring in these crucial conflict zones.
It isn’t worth an effort to try to inform or correct him. Just enjoy the slapstick and laugh. Good stuff.
If it’s all so funny perhaps you’d care to venture an opinion as to why the US is building 8 military bases in North East Syria and bombing Syrian civilians there? (Hasakah area especially)
And why the following analysis? –
“It is only too evident that the US’ plan for Syria is to break it down, partition it. However the Syrian government forces are trying to prevent it. And in Raqqa we are witnessing the attempt of the coalition to implement this plan at any cost,” Celalettin Yavuz stated.”
from https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201706221054867138-us-coalition-syria-plan/
And this –
“Now that the ISIL is on the verge of full collapse and has only small parts under its hold in Raqqa and Mosul cities, the Pentagon has taken the opportunity and increased its forces in Syria to seize control of ISIL’s lost lands,” Andrey Kushkin said.
“The move, is exactly the one that happened in World War II. The US army delayed in opening the second front and then opened it after disintegration of territories was possible, that is why Washington has increased its forces to disintegrate the country and bring large parts of it under its control,” Kushkin added.
From – http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13960403001130 (Note the phrase “ISIL’s lost lands. Lost lands?)
Regarding Israel, it is the Zionists who created this war and are running the terror groups ! Does anyone think their global domination goals have changed?
I am sure we all support President Putin’s gargantuan efforts to “solve” Syria and get deals with everybody but I would strongly counsel against any smugness that it will all work out and though I hope I’m wrong I do not see an outcome where Syria get’s all it’s territory back and all foreign uninvited fighters leave.
The US / Israel will do all they can to ensure it doesn’t.
I’m not buying this, this is fearmongerin on the same level as “the next Ukrainian offensive is going to wipe out the Donbass militias” or “Putin is selling out Donbass”, we’ve heard all this again and again but the facts on the ground never confirm this trolling. I have just checked out your 2 links: Nowhere is there any mention of these supposed 8 US-bases. Besides that your references are outdated (one is from the 22nd of June and the other from the 24th of June), they don’t contain any meaningful details referring to your the-end-is-near-argument. Better check out the new situation map and let the battle hardened forces of Assad do their work:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DDmdHUoXYAAKqBK.jpg
Unfortunately my friend, what you or I “buy” is neither here nor there.
Facts are facts and how can you say an article from 2 weeks ago is out of date?
However I am glad to post the sources of the claim that the US has 8 military bases in Syria.
I take it you trust Sputnik and Vanessa Beeley?
Quote –
“The US is setting up its military bases in the territories that were liberated from Daesh by our fighters during the fight against terrorism,” ~ Senior Representative of the US armed, proxy, SDF forces.
With very little fanfare from the western media, the US is quietly creating a hostile military footprint inside Syria.
By establishing a chain of airbases, military outposts and missile bases inside Syria, the US is illegally, stealth-occupying a sovereign nation. The number of US military installations in Syria has increased to eight bases according to recent reports, and possibly nine according to one other military analyst.”
from – http://worldbeyondwar.org/us-expands-military-footprint-syria-eight-bases/
And
Quote –
The US is setting up its military bases in the territories that were liberated from Daesh by our fighters during the fight against terrorism,” the source said.
He further said that earlier the US set up their bases in Kobani, Manbij, Hasakah, al-Shadadi and al-Hawl.
As noted by the representative, the number of US military bases in Syria, taking into account the newly established base in Tabka, has increased to eight.
According to the source, in the future the US intends to continue increasing its number of bases in the country.
From – https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201707041055229656-us-strengthens-presence-syria/
I hope you find this helpful
Thank you for the links. Yes, US forces are in Syria and they are expanding their footprint and this is a very worrying development, it could put the US on a direct collision course with Russian/Iranian forces. But then these US troops are also in a very exposed position, their supply lines are vulnerable and other regional actors are not willing to accept the consequence of this positioning, namely an independent Kurdish entity. Turkey has made this very clear and if the US keeps beefing up the YPG/SDF, there could be a huge blowback. Is the US really willing to push Turkey completely out of the Western alliance or even risk a direct confrontation?
I think that all these recent US actions are a sign of desperation and weakness. The SAA is on the advance, their position is much stronger than ever before during the whole war. Hezbollah, the militia that defeated the IDF in 2006, is now even more experienced and will continue to fight. The Iraqi PMUs might enter Syria any day now that Mossul has been liberated. Iraq is not only offering its airspace to Russia but is also negotiating further cooperation with Damascus. Iran has just recently proven its regional missile strike capabilities, in fact it has become a regional great power and it will never leave Syria to its fate. The Russian air force is mastering the skies over Syria and is giving hell to ISIS. Russia continues to expand and modernize their facilities in Tartus and Khmeimim and elsewhere, Iran is offering its airspace and airbases, Russia is there to stay for the next 50 years.
I think that Putin is doing a tremendous job and if he doesn’t give the order to bomb those US forces that are building up some forward outposts we should be thankful for him not starting WW3. Syria and the axis of good are winning this war anyway, all that the US can do is to delay the inevitable.
I agree with most of what you say. Just two differences.- the degree of vulnerability of the US forces and your confidence that they can be made to leave, though I fervently hope so.
I too was shocked when I read about this US creeping build up. Eight bases? What for and how do the Syrians get them out of their country?
Are the US bases vulnerable as you suggest?
The Russians said a couple of weeks back that they would track and target US planes west of the Euphrates only.
I therefore wonder whether the SAA will venture east of the Euphrates when they do
get to Deir Ez-zor?
They would have no Russian air cover and be at the mercy of the US air force which has been quite happy to bomb Syrians civilians and military up til now.
Russia has been trying to incorporate the US into the negotiation process, fine, but I don’t believe there is a gram of sincerity in anything the US side say and they are quite capable of saying one thing then doing the opposite.
Dealing with the US, especially these days, must be an absolute nightmare for the Russians, which is why the west/east Euphrates notion came up I think.
First and foremost for the Russians is the absolute priority that they don’t get into an air battle with the US whereupon things could escalate beyond political control.
I think the Saker said the Russians have a word for them meaning they are not deal-able do-able or something like that
Plus – who’s in charge of US foreign policy anyway?
A bunch of generals? Goldman Sachs? Zionist Kushner?
All I’ve been trying to say is “Let’s not get too carried away with an assumed Syrian victory yet. There is a fucking huge monster in the background and it is the worst monster there is because it is not only violent but there is no way to make it go away”
I agree when you say – “Yes, US forces are in Syria and they are expanding their footprint and this is a very worrying development,”
But what are they there for and how to get them out?
However perhaps we can at least shine a big light on them and try and expose their presence.
best wishes
Postscript
There again whereas US propaganda would have us believe that any country daring to even shoot at American attacking forces is inviting Nagasaki – level destruction, the reality may be rather different and indeed US forces may be very vulnerable.
From Ray Starmann at US Defense Watch:
“Since, 1991, the US military has been slowly coming apart at the seams. Stress cards, open homosexuality, transgenders on active duty, sensitivity training, pregnancy simulators for male troopers, lactation stations in the field, babies born on US ships of war, female graduates of Ranger School, including a 37 year old mother, women in the SEALs, women in Marine infantry units and females in the field artillery even though most cannot carry a 155mm round are just some of the insanity that has taken place in the last 26 years, but which snowballed into hell under the Obama administration”.
from: http://www.woodpilereport.com/
“Let’s not get too carried away with an assumed Syrian victory yet. There is a fucking huge monster in the background and it is the worst monster there is because it is not only violent but there is no way to make it go away”
“…and how to get them out?”
– Agreed, we’re probably in for some nasty surprises. Maybe I’m overoptimistic about this war ending on favourable terms for Syria, i.e. the Damascus government regaining full control and restoring peace in all of Syria. I think a lot depends on Turkey and, to a lesser degree, on Iraq.
The Shia-dominated Iraq is having excellent relations with Iran and granting Russian heavy bombers and cruise missiles overflight permissions but at the same time there are US ground and air units operating alongside the Iraqi forces. Are the Iraqis careful to not chose a camp in order to prevent becoming a target themselves? Or is their sovereignty still too compromised to allow them to decisively join the multipolar camp? Are they just using the Americans to get rid of ISIS and biding their time to kick them out?
Turkey has been a vicious enemy of Assad since the beginning of this whole mess but a failed coup-attempt by forces close to the US last year and continued US-support for the Kurds have led to a marked decline in anti-Assad statements and actions, a conspicuous cooling-down of the relations with America and simultaneous improvement of the relations with Moscow. Yet there are no clear signs to where Turkey is headed. Will they intervene forcefully against the Kurds? And if so, will it be in coordination with Damascus or will they try to carve out a piece of Syria for themselves? What about Idlib: why is there still such a strong jihadist presence? Could they finally accept Assad or would that be seen as a humiliation by Erdogan?
If these two countries decide to decisively join the multipolar camp, the US stance in SDF-territory would become unsustainable. The SDF-controlled territory is now an enclave, surrounded to the west and south by the SAA, in the north by Turkey and in the east by Iraq. The ISIS-territory to its south is itself an exclave as well. I think that the US actions in Syria are not (anymore) in the interest of Turkey and Iraq, however these two players are pursuing somewhat ambivalent and intransparent Syria-policies. If this situation persists and if the multipolar camp is trying to avoid an open confrontation with the hegemon, we might be heading for some sort of semi-frozen conflict, at least short to medium term.
In the long run such an outcome is not an option for any of the involved players. The US would always see this Kurdish entity as a launching pad for further destabilizing actions and the Kurds in Turkey and Iran would certainly be recruited for this. Therefore I think that in the end there can only be a total victory for one of the camps: either Damascus falls or the hegemon loses its authority in the region. What a quagmire…
In any case, time is not working in favor of the hegemon. The economic problems of the US are so staggering that I would not rule out a sudden collapse that would deprive the US military of the resources to continue this rampage. I’m hoping for such an outcome as I think that it would be the least dangerous solution and maybe permit America to become a normal country.
Best wishes
“The economic problems of the US are so staggering that I would not rule out a sudden collapse that would deprive the US military of the resources to continue this rampage. I’m hoping for such an outcome as I think that it would be the least dangerous solution and maybe permit America to become a normal country.”
Couldn’t agree more – it’s got to come down to their ability to fund these bases, not just in Syria but the many hundreds of bases worldwide.
Alexander Mercouris said way back that Trump’s “real” job should be transforming the US into a normal country ie law abiding, paying it’s way and respectful of other nations’ rights.
Syria is crucial not just for the obvious reason that’s it’s people have been chronically abused by the west but also it is the line in the sand where the NWO and it’s rolling hegemony programme have been stopped in their tracks.
It ends here! (Or at least we hope so).
The Syrians will battle on as long as they have bullets in their guns and bread in their bellies but the US military global empire might just dry up and blow away when there’s no money for the paychecks.
best wishes
“The picture that is forming is that of a Syria carve up /…/ Israel gets a stronger hold on the Golan Heights and an expansion of the territory under its influence as well. The US gets most of the East and North. Turkey gets a big chunk of the North. Russia gets several important bases.”
Wrong. Putin, Assad, and their allies are doing a sterling job in Syria. As usual, it is the Western addiction to reactionary garbage which trumps common sense.
“Putin is midwife to the Hegemon’s drive towards global rule, though Putin protests otherwise.”
And though the Russian and Syrian people believe otherwise as well. To hell with non-Western public opinion. Paul has solid faith in Western invincibility.
Paul you are joke…go to WA-COMPOST !!!!!
“Essentially, that would lead towards American/Jordanian peacekeeping forces near the Golan”
According to Canthama, this is happening already – maybe on a small base – , as I posted here a few days ago.
“and the Americans in the northeast all the way to Raqqa alongside the Kurdish YPG.”
I wouldn’t bet on that, Pepe, you could lose a lot of money…
Typo:
…this is happening already – maybe on a small scale – ,
Putin and Trump stage-managed a win-win: means it was a waste of time, when our experience shows that in US Trump at least is not the one calling the shots. I will stick with saker analysis.
Some may sent Victory…
If so, Friends, beware the Mark you cannot beat, the mark inside. Triumph or Victory bring more murder by laying the seeds… Do not invite these deities into your scope, or you may feed inner devils.
The German word comes to mind as descriptive of evil…schadenfreude…
Now then, it seems that Empire has possibly designed to adopt another path, but the goal? Nothing suggests any change in Goal…does it? Or structures driving these goals?
All Victory brings is Betrayal.
Yet it is better than open war.
As to overall realpolitik…things happen according to objective realities, nuanced by, naturally, delusions. The longer USA delays adapting to reality the more difficult and dangerous the adjustments must be, alas… Yet the objective fact remains that adaptations must occur, so they shall.
Depending of the character of these changes the natural strategic goal will also change – possible away from violence and aggression – we shall see. Obviously domestic affairs will be the arena that creates the new realities…
There the intelops play and run and game, weeee!
Pax
LZ
If we agree that Russia, and Putin specifically, are pragmatists, what possible reason would they/he have to accommodate Israeli imperialism? Scott has pointed out repeatedly that a Jewish-Israeli oligarchic insurrection is happening now in the Russian Federation. And apparently Dnepropetrovsk is the possible “new Jewish capital of the world?” (per Global Research article of the same name.)
Repeatedly, members of the Russian Foreign Ministry mention the word “complex” when discussing the solution for Syria. So, I would assume that whatever plan they are executing, it is not a straightforward, obvious one.
Also, I think it is possible that some behind-the-scenes action, by those with more power than the average citizen, is happening, which is not A) part of the Anglo-Zionist complex, or B) hostile to all mankind. Yes, it’s undemocratic – at the moment. But there are definite moves taking place which go against the NWO grain. An alternative world order, I would surmise?
The Russian tactic is to freeze the power of superior forces. US+Israel+Jordan+AQ+alNusra is an overmatch in the zone for Russia+Syria+Iranian proxies.
Russia does not want a direct confrontation for Syria vs Israel (The above groups slimmed down to the true adversaries.) Golan is already decided by law as Syria’s. So, there will be no war over it in the short term. Syria has plenty of battles ahead to win. No sense fighting Israel now.
The Russian basic military strategy is to prepare to take on an attacker and destroy him. Teaching this to Syrian generals is now ongoing. Israel lost that kind of war in 2006, attacking Hezbollah. In the future, Israel may attempt another attack. Syria will be rebuilt as an army that can handle an attack, all in due time. The Golan is going nowhere in the meanwhile. Water, gas and oil are the issue. Russia can help with negotiations.
Meanwhile there are still tens of thousands of ISIS and AQ and al Nusra to deal with, and thousands of kilometers of border to secure. Syria has plenty on its plate.
This SW de-escalation zone will be a real test of Jordan, Israel and the US. With Russian MPs on the ground and a reconciliation center in Amman for all sides to work through, stabilization can begin. This zone now becomes neutralized instead of a constant threat against the city of Damascus.
Whether it holds or not, the terrorists will be dismantled, peacefully, or by force. Russia writes the rules. They would not put their own troops there if it was not their rules.
Israel loses their proxies. And probably, Hezbollah is moved away, maybe up to Idlib. This ceasefire is also to separate Iranian proxies from the zone. Thus, the ceasefire and these arrangements the Russians have constructed make more distant the war Israel has tried to ignite– with Syria, Lebanon, Golan, Jordan and ultimately, force a war against Iran using the US and its Arab Coalition + Israel.
It’s much more than just a ceasefire and expanded de-escalation zone. With Putin, it is always much more than it first seems to be.
L445
With Hezbollah and Iranian forces out of the area and relocated further north, the israelis won’t be able to use their presence as a pretext to take pot shots across the border any more. With Russian nationals in the region the israelis are further disuaded.
The bibi boy botherer doesn’t appear very pleased about this new development:
Netanyahu Wants Russia, US to Take Into Account Israeli Position Over Syria
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201707091055379837-israel-ceasefire-syria/
Concur.
Putin is making moves “against” Israel as it did with S 400 and rules that kept IDF planes out of the theater of war. Yes, once, one plane flew into Syrian space, but it almost got hit by Syrian AA/S300 and ran for it fast.
He has frequent “talks” with Bibi, IDF and Mossad chiefs. They all know Russia means no harm to Israel and, in return, expects no harm to Russian interests. And Syria is one big Russian interest.
This is one small step to keep Iran and Israel from active conflict, though both sides do want to meet and duke it out. Russia wants none of that to occur.
Note also, Russia and Iran coordinate closely, very closely through Quds Force leader Suleimani. Great affection between Russian mil, Iran and Hezbollah top to bottom. They have all been brilliant and brave. Russia is also teaching its allies that there are very useful means to achieve goals that don’t require combat.
Putin has sewn doubt into the minds of the Israelis. He knows that arrogance is their fuel. But they really have no true ally for most of what they want. No one wants the Israelis to be regional hegemon, not Jordan, not Turkey, not the Saudis. This deal left the Israelis out. And the US bought it, as did Jordan. That’s a very good thing.
Larchmon445: thanx for all of the great breakdowns and relevant, understandable context/detail/connecting of the dots. Very much appreciated.
millions of americans were on the side of russia, seeing that they were fighting the real war on terrorism and we all seen the games america government was playing in ukraine , but for putin to jump in with trump a crook and a sexest lier and friends with russian mobsters , has turned many that liked russia away from supporting russia , bad move for russia now you will get what the evil doers in america want for you , maybe you will pick better friends,,,