by Ghassan Kadi
The sudden, unprovoked and coordinated outrage of Middle East regional powers, as well as international powers, against Qatar is something akin to a story in “Fables de La Fontaine”. With a bit of a twist, it resembles the story of “The Animals Seized with the Plague”.
For the benefit of those who are unfamiliar with this fable, the animals convened to find out why they were struck by the plague. One by one, the big predators made their confessions about their hunting, killing and ravaging adventures, but they were forgiven and vindicated. Then a donkey admitted that he once a mouthful of grass from someone’s pasture, and for this act, the donkey was named as THE culprit, killed and sacrificed to save the rest of the animals from the wrath of the gods.
Qatar is not as innocent as La Fontaine’s donkey, but who are those who are passing judgement?
The Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman (MBS) clearly has his eyes on the ailing Saudi economy and stature. An invasion and takeover of Qatar can put Saudi Arabia in the position of being on par with Russia in terms of having the world’s largest reserves of both petrol and gas combined, and not petrol alone. This is a badly needed stripe on the shoulder that MBS can use, and this on its own is a very lucrative prospect. But has Trump given him the go ahead to march his troops into Qatar? If the crisis keeps escalating at its current rate, we shall find out the answer to this question in the not too distant future.
Let us get this straight. The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Qatar is not ideological. Even though Qatar supports the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and helped former Egyptian MB President Mursi and continues to support and fund the now outlawed MB within Egypt (and Saudi Arabia), in principle, the ideology of the MB is not drastically different from the Saudi Wahhabi version.
And at the time that Qatar’s Al-Jazeera was allowing Muslim clerics like Egyptian-born Qardawi to call for Jihadi recruits to go and fight in Syria, Saudi Arabia was allowing Syrian-born Ar’our alongside many other Saudi clerics to use Saudi televised media to do just the same. As a matter of fact, many Saudi clerics have used Al-Jazeera to vent their hatred for Syria and for canvassing recruitments.
What is interesting in all of this is the following current amazing political mosaic:
- Qatar and Saudi Arabia are both pushing for different forms of Muslim fundamentalism, but they are emerging as mortal enemies.
- Qatar and Saudi Arabia have both supported and sponsored terrorism that became known as Islamic terrorism, despite the Saudi accusation that the sponsorship was only Qatar-based.
- Qatar is principally one of the nations that form the Saudi-led anti-Yemen coalition.
- Saudi Arabia and Qatar are just a tad away from engaging in a war, but they have united views about being enemies of Syria.
- Erdogan is a friend of Saudi Arabia, but a supporter of Qatar and of the Egyptian MB.
- Qatar is a dedicated enemy of Syria, but accused to be close to Iran, Syria’s friend.
- Qatar and Saudi Arabia are both allies of the USA and the USA has a base in Qatar that it used as a launch pad against Iraq.
- Trump, who has a base in Qatar, now says that Qatar has been sponsoring terrorism.
- Hamas supports the MB and remains close to Qatar, even though under MB President Mursi, the Egyptian siege of Gaza was intensified.
One could add more to that interesting mosaic, especially if other players are to be included in the equation. Such is the “logic” of the Middle East, but the West is not any better or more rational; allegedly fighting terrorism with one hand and feeding it with the other.
What is most ominous in the sudden and virtually global anti-Qatar stance is the stark similarity with previous situations. Gaddafi and Assad were never really regarded as friends of the West, but there was a time when Gaddafi was accepted and established good relationships with Britain, France and Italy before they suddenly joined the anti-Gaddafi tsunami and decided to join the plot. Likewise, Assad was accepted by the West, and has in fact partaken in international events like the funeral of the late Pope John Paul II. He was also on very good terms with Erdogan before Erdogan decided to stab him in the back. And how can we mention Assad and Gaddafi without remembering Saddam and Mubarak?
What is different in those scenarios was that the fate of Assad was sealed by his people, and the support he received from his people and friends of Syria, but what is the likelihood of the Qatari Royals receiving such a support from their popular base? In any event, the whole population of Qatar is in the vicinity of a quarter million, they never had any clout in the past, and they won’t have any in the future.
What is also of interest is that long before the discovery of oil and gas in the region, “states” like Qatar and Bahrain depended mainly on the pearl trade, and a quick search on any Internet search engine reveals a long history of tribal wars and rivalries between them as well as with Al Saud during the early days of the birth of Saudi Arabia.
Who is fighting who in the Middle East and for what reason exactly is not a question that many political leaders want to answer. The bottom line here is that as the world is getting more materialistic and audacious, principles and ideologies grow increasingly marginalized, and the struggle for power is becoming more transparent. Admittedly, this struggle is as ancient as ancient Rome and beyond, but today’s society is meant to be developed and civilised. Humanity has formed the United Nations with international law to supposedly be the watchdog for the activities of nations who breach its charter on human rights and world peace issues, but it has sadly become a ploy in the hands of big powers.
Ancient Romans did what was good for Rome, without having to apologize about it. Trump has gone the full circle in his “America first” doctrine, but he shamelessly declares war on terror from the financial capital of terror; Riyadh.
Qatar is definitely no angel. The small young state which is much closer to being a big corporation, an outpost more than being a nation, seems to have run its course towards self-destruction. It played big, and with fire, and the fire it lit is now turning back to burn it.
But neither the whole of Saudi Arabia nor the young ambitious prince MBS seem to be learning. With all the upheaval around them, the rise and fall of Arab leaders, the conspiracies they have played with their American partners against other Arab and Muslim leaders, the Saudis are totally oblivious to the scenario of an impending premonition that they themselves could be next when their chips are down. If anything, it is a question of time.
Fact remains that Qatar and its former allies and growing number of enemies are like Sinbad’s infamous forty thieves; they are all partners in crime. And just like the former “Anti-Syrian Cocktail” was predicted to crumble and crash, and it did, so will the forty thieves. Even FIFA seems now to be reconsidering its decision for Qatar to host the World Cup in 2020! Since when, we must ask, did FIFA respond in such manner to political squabbles and Saudi statements and accusations of other states? And if FIFA’s concern is principled, then why didn’t FIFA act responsibly when rumours of corruption were raised regarding the manner in which Qatar won the World Cup bid?
But unlike the few green bottles standing on the wall that fall one after another, the forty thieves can sometimes rebirth themselves and wear a different hat, or in this case a different Koufia and headband, but just like La Fontaine’s donkey, there is nothing that Qatar can do to get off the hook. A decision seems to have already been made that the royal Qatari headband will soon bite the dust, but not many tears will be shed.
“Fake news” – CNN
CNN staging the narrative before making report, they are truly Fake News!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muME4lb7YhM
CNN Fake Protest; London; 6-5-2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhFyN-Y0Is0
Omran dad tells reality ,Allepo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sq13_uvLONQ
Since 1999 in Yugoslavia, actually. What’s new here?
UAE ambassador emails reveal a plot against Qatar and Kuwait with the connivance of US neo – cons :
http://www.aljazeera.com/video/news/2017/06/leaked-emails-uae-diplomat-worked-denigrate-qatar-kuwait-170605050144316.html
Thanks for the apocryphal tale.
It seems apt.
The predicted fall of Qatar does not seem to bode well for . . . anyone.
But Trump has a new friend . . .
One he got by stabbing an old one in the back.
The one the USA got when the KSA stabbed it in the back a few decades back, I seem to recall.
It all sounds like family . . .
Katherine
As far as I can remember Qatar is a member of the UN. And Saudi Arabia is also a member. There is no legal “right” of any country to invade another country. And certainly not members of the UN doing so. Now some might say “the US does it”. And they would be right. But as loathsome as that is (and it is),they are a World “hegemon”. And even they try to come up with “some” trumped up excuse when they do it. Saudi Arabia is not the US. And the excuses they give for their aggression against Qatar don’t even “pass the laugh test”.Its past time for other great states to stand up to these aggressors. And stop their damnable appeasement of aggression. Its enough to turn a persons stomach from the cowardice they show.Either stand up for justice or knell down to your master. But stop this revolting charade of pretending to be tough. And people having to die for your egos.You either are tough or you aren’t,there is no in between in this World.
Bob, I believe that their membership in the UN does not mean as much to them as their membership in the desert Arab tradition and culture.
True. But my point was it means something under international law.Its a war crime to invade another country unless your country is itself under attack. That is clearly not the case.
When was the last time the US or the Anglo-Zionist Empire abided by International Law unless it had already found a way around it or it was otherwise convenient?
You are correct,and that was mentioned in my first post.But Saudi Arabia isn’t the US. They may be “allied” with the US. But the “mafia soldier” doesn’t have the same rights as “the Don” does. So its time to “shut them down”.
Trump tried to cobble a coalition to accuse Iran of supporting terrorism thus pretense to war but Qatar would not go along with it because of the ties it has with Iran. This the result of that refusal. Veterans Today posted this version which is very simple and makes sense.
Qatar is strategical springboard for future action against Iran. Qatar coming closer to Iran. No way brother. Very similar to Crimea. Nato wanted a base there . Here the empire seems to want full controle of Qatar. They will not let it slip out of their hands like what happened in the Crim
The scorpion went looking about, went walkabout and came to a river…and met a frog.
“Please, Brother, can you swim?” Said Scorpion.
“You are a scorpion”, observed Mr. Frog. “And”, he went on, “Everyone says scorpions are dangerous and can kill frogs with a flick of their tail, is this true?”
“Well…” admitted Scorpion, “yes, but only when we have to – right now I just want to cross the river – and your broad back would be so much help…” he drew out the honey and persuasive words with a sly cunning that you might have seen if you were watching Scorpion’s eyes narrow just a bit…but Frog’s simple honesty did not. And so, after some thought, Frog agreed and Scorpion hopped onto his broad green back. In a thrilling ride Frog yelled “hold on!” and with a great jump
the pair flew through the air in a expert arc, right to the water’s edge, and Frog swam with sure strong ease, careful now of wetting his friend, who was having a great adventure.
Then, naturally, just as the pair found the shoals of the far side and Frog brought them to land, Scorpion stung Frog to death.
“Why, Friend Scorpion, did you kill me?” Said dying Frog…
“Oh, well, I am a scorpion – it’s just me, my way, everyone knows about scorpions…replied Scorpion to the now dead corpse – and the flies began to land…
White Tigers are, like scorpions and donkeys, possessed of defining qualities – and doing deals with them works out according to these intrinsic characteristics… When “frog” deals with “Scorpion”, well, you know…
Examples abound
Now, for the Quiz, name 10 scorpions and some frogs…spelling counts…
Please explain where the CIA, Pentagon, UK, France,China and Russia fit into all this.
Otherwise the story is incomplete.
Someone in this same blog said few days ago that Qatar was in talks with China, Russia and Iran to joing a big project.
The Hegemon is just trying to sabotage it and in the process teach a lesson to the rest of their minions.
A gas project, as a rival to the OECD.
Iran, Qatar and Russia have more than half the world’s supply of gas, yet have no corresponding influence on price.
Check out my fars news agency link.
Saddam fought Iran with western weapons and Saudi money.
Then he owed a lot of money to Saudi Arabia and invaded Kuwait to control Kuwaiti oilfields.
The western coalition (and numerous Arab countries including Saudi Arabia) bombed and sanctioned Iraq.
Now, if Saudi Arabia invades Qatar, what will happen? Will the Western powers approve it or they will repeat a 2nd gulf war scenario by invading Saudi Arabia to liberate Qatar?
It doesn’t makes sense why they have sanctioned Qatar and the American government stays silent. Qatar is a typical capitalist neocolonial entity. USA has bases in Qatar. It is a country – corporation, open for investment to the multinational corporations.
While the Qatari emir is a puppet of the West,
Qaddafi and Assad were different cases as their ideology was nationalist, anticolonial , Arab socialist. They kept their countries sovereign and had economies and natural resources that were nationalised at large. And this is the reason why Qaddafi was toppled and murdered and Assad fights a war for his personal and his government survival….
.
they are seting up trap for Saudi Arabia as they did with Iraq. Saudi Arabia will have green light to invade Qatar and will suffer same consequences as Iraq when it was given green light to invade Kuweit.
Most persons tend to forget about the fact that April Glaspie who was the US ambassador to Iraq at the time, gave Saddam the impression that the US would have no problem with him invading Kuwait.
Some accounts said thst Saddam was shocked when afterwards, the US threatened him with war for the act…
As swarthy and unshaven and unappealing to white European and American eager consumers of MSM lying propaganda as Saddam was in those olden days of Burning Bushes, he and the Iraqi people qualify as # 1 frog in LZ99’s Frog & Scorpion Quiz, above, IMHO.
# 1 Scorpion in the post USSR world??
Well, that would have to be “The Iron Lady” who “stiffened the back” of George H W Bush for the slaughter of the entrapped Iraqis. And stiffening the back of a snake is no mean feat!!
But non-lethal doses of scorpion venom seem to do the trick.
GHWB doesn’t even qualify as a scorpion, by scorpion standards: Poisonous enough, but too slithery and wishy washy.
US government stays silent because this is the outcome of Trump´s travel to KSA and dancing of sword dance of war.
The fact is that KSA must spend hundreds of millions of dollars in the arms deal to benefit the so needed of capitalisation ( and some jobs to keep the sheeple in the belief that the POTUS fill in his promises ) US economy. KSA does not have the money, since from a while already immersed in an economic internal crisis. Thus, they have decided that Qatar must put the money.
That´s the issue, no need to look for three feet in the cat.
Religion and ideologies have nothing to do here, nor have never had, since only a tool for to achieve goals through shameful and immoral means. This is all about money as is with almost all the world elites except for a few honorable exceptions
Compliments Ghassan, I bow my head to your article!
The Trump-Saudi love fest bears first fruits.
Surprise – they dry, bitter, uneatable!
There may be reasons stated officially about this rift. There may be irritations about the connections of Qatar with Iran, and about the selling of LNG to China paid in yuan. Those stories about supporting terrorists are laughable for anyone sane. There is hardly a jihadist group thinkable anywhere in the world that is not supported by the Saudi’s.
But I call BS. The measures that have been taken are on the brink of a declaration of war. And my guess is that the Saudi’s just want to steal their gas field, that they share with Iran, that has the lowest extraction costs in the world. A bit parallel to the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq. Maybe they even want to sabotage the Iran part of the gas field.
Do the Saudi’s really want that? And with what? They can’t even win from Houthi rebels in Yemen, and have switched to outrageous genocide to hide their military failures. And what about the Turkish troups in Qatar, supporting Qatar, and the largest US military base there?
I’m afraid the toxic marriage of the USA and the KSA will result in just another clusterf**k baby.
The Qataris have withdrawn (or been expelled as the Saudi would have it) from the coaltion in Yemen. The Houthis have offered their support to Qatar. Turkey has beefed up its military presence in Qatar. iran has flown food aid into Doha. Egypy signing up was a bit of a puzzle, given their links to Russia/Syria in attempts to counter extremist Islamic terrorism. However, they are facing Wahabbists attacks from Libya and in Siniai. Under those circumstances, it would pragmatic to go along rather than give Saudi Arabia an excuse to increase the action (a hypothesis).
Egypt puzzled me too.
But a little digging around reveals its hostility is at least partially due to Qatari support for the Muslim Brotherhood.
Not sure how extensive its participation in the current alliance against Qatar is, or if it intends to go any further with the Saudis at the head of the attack.
It maybe a case of keeping a low profile, lest ISIS starts a big terror campaign in Egypt to bring them to heel.
We’ll see.
Egypt gets a “ton” of money from the Saudis.That is one reason they are playing lap dog. The other and probably main reason is that Qatar like Turkey supports the Muslim Brotherhood. Which was the group that the current Egyptian regime overthrew to seize power. So they have a “blood feud” with the Muslim Brotherhood and their supporters.That would be Egypt’s other reason for siding with the Saudis against Qatar.
It seems people are jumping the gun in writing off Qatar, I think it will prove a tougher nut to crack than Riyadh imagines. Much like their cousins to the south, the Qatari royals have been deluded by wealth into thinking they are a sovereign nation. They simply are not going down without a fight.
To this end, they still have several cards to play. Firstly, bring in the Turks. Ankara has already approved troops being stationed at its air base in Qatar. Over night we could see thousands of troops brought in. The Turks are steaming over the US giving heavy weapons to the Kurds and are probably itching to flip Washington the bird.
If Saudi tries any invasion, the first thing Doha will do is ground every aircraft in the largest U.S. air base in the region. This is a giant risk for the Pentagon. Turkish troops and perhaps even anti-aircraft systems would guarantee this, just look at the grounding of Incirlik after the attempted coup.
If things really hit the fan, Doha can turn to Iran and again, overnight, the peninsula would be swarming with Revolutionary Guards. After the latest terror attack, does anyone think Tehran would miss a chance to out their troops right on Saudi’s doorstep?
This isn’t to say they’d prevail, but don’t expect the Qatari princes to go quietly into the night.
There is also the Strait of Hormuz to consider, The Saudis would lose much of their capacity to export oil while at war with Qatar.
This. I don´t think it would be such an easy takeover. (unless the Saudis have a lot of support inside the people of Qatar?)
The Saudis don´t seem to be very good when i comes to wining wars. They are losing ground in Syria and the debacle in Yemen is unbelivable. (and sad)
Do they think a third front is winable with their economy suffering and them bleeding money like crazy at this point?
I wonder what the Saker things of this from a military analyst point of view,
Thanks, all, for your insights on these topics. My greatest fear about all of these war drums being beat to death is the inevitable civilian injury & death toll. Let’s see here– other things could happen, planned, of course. We can’t forget the financial markets. Suppose there is damage to petroleum or natural gas extraction facilities–whoa!– there goes the price of those commodities….war profits… tankers carrying crude getting damaged (or sunk) will drive ship and cargo insurance rates sky high, and if the Hormuz straits get plugged up you will see a far-reaching ripple effect. A worry I’ve had for some time is that shipping thru the Straits of Malacca , between Sumatra and Malaysia, could be targeted as well just to make sure China feels the pain. This could all.get really crazy really fast.
I have a question for the author, Mr. Kadi.
The majority of countries that are entirely within the Arabian Peninsula have all been involved with the U.S. government to some degree. But Oman seems to be reasonably free from cross border conflict with its Arab neighbors.
My question is: How has Oman been able to stay out of having to ‘choose sides’ so to speak and not be drawn into the regional war between the KSA and Yemen?
The answer is their leader and the specific sect of Islam they adhere to.
Oman tends to try and stay neutral in gulf state rows but if pushed they would be more likely to fall in with Iran (and therefore Qatar).
Good question.
I too wonder how Oman manages to stay out of all this.
Oman is a very interesting case to read about.
Oman’s basic law in accordance with tradition, declares that Islam is the state religion and that Shari’a is the source of legislation. It also prohibits discrimination based on religion and provides for the freedom to practice religious rites as long as doing so does not disrupt public order.
They adhere to an offshoot of Sunni Islam called Ibadism (Abadthya), with a Shia minority.
Omanis are very tolerant people and they adhere to modesty and humbleness. You can see this in their beautiful yet simple mosque designs…..In some ways they actually adhere to the Sunnah of Prophet Mohammed of humbleness and modesty more than any other Arabs in the region.
The society in general shuns arrogance, extravagance and overly expressions of pride.
As for their geo-strategic situation, they are heavily influenced and allied with the British. They are basically a British client state, with 30% of their oil controlled by Royal-Dutch Shell (Anglo-Dutch) since the 60s. They are considered neutral between the Gulf states and Iran and keep a low profile.There are some claims that they have been funneling weapons to the Houthis in Yemen and they have strong tribal and historic ties with Yemenis.
War, finding a way to force the mooted “enemy” States to join in a war with the Reich, finding a way to force them to fight, is seen as imperative by the nice fellas of the Reich. Qatar is the way to Iran, which is the way to Moscow, which is the way to Beijing.
One recalls King George V and his Imperative in 1914 – Quite similar…
Sooner or later the nice fellas will either fail, or, more probably, get what they want – war with Russia, Iran, China,,,after all, they have the problem of Napoleon – they can do anything with bayonets except sit on them… And the economics, their class status – everything depends on the war happening…
So, Comrades, a Question:
When you see barricade there are two, only two sides.
When the sides are fighting, and you see your enemies on both sides, what, if anything, ought you to do?
I propose that the correct thing to do is to prepare to defeat the winner. It is not to join the fellas on the barricade. “Defeat” is not the same as “fight”, is it?
Now, is this question relevant?
I do not know…
There is an old saying. It goes something like “who the gods want to destroy they make crazy”. This infighting in the Arab world is destruction. My guess is the Saudis will come to regret this move.
On this blog I meet people from different cultures and religions. It brings better understanding and respect and I thank the Saker for that.
I forgot to mention this. We are not Catholics, but my girlfriend and I got engaged in St. Pauls Basilika in Rome in 1979. A priest let us into the inner chamber and we prayed on our knees. After that we had dinner at a Muslim restaurant and were honored by the employees. It is great to see wise Muslims on this blog.
If you have the money, the time and the opportunity, please visit the Basilika in Rome. Many tourists are unaware of this magnificent building from Roman times. St. Bridgit had revelations there. My daughter was there a couple of weeks ago and was impressed. Paul has a special place in my life. The road to Damascus and his 14 years in the desert to think it over. And my desert years? 14 years is what some theologians say.
What we have to bear in mind is that, Saudi Arabia with even a trillion dollars worth of weapons at its disposal is not a credible threat or force to be reckoned with.
Hell, the Saudis have almost bankrupted themselves trying to subdue a handful of Houthis in Yemen since March 2015. They have expennded billions with nothing to show for it.
They are regarded as a hugh joke as far as where military forces are concerned.
Hobnobbing with Israeli war criminals have embolden the House of Saud, but we all know that Iran would overun the kingdom within the space of 48 hours…
The House of Saud is way out of its league militarily and its army of mercenaries will not be able to save it when it overplays its hand…
well, seeing is believing – I don’t think that it will go so far as the Qatari royals losing their kingdom corporation –
there’s alot of Iraqis in Qatar now – I wonder what will happen if the worst happens ?
It may appear sudden, but it’s been brewing for quite a while :
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13960319000013
Interesting article, that complements your very informative one.
I’d imagine that the Saudis are telling the US not to worry about the airbase/command center. That the Saudis are saying it will be over quickly and that the new owners (Saud) will be very friendly to the base.
The presence of the Turkish troops complicates this. In terms of fighting quality, I’d imagine that in general Turkish troops are much more highly rated than Saudi troops. So, I’d expect they’d be a tough(er) nut for the Sauds to crack. But numbers matter too, and I’d guess the Sauds can bring in bigger numbers.
But it gets more interesting when one things that the Turkish troops are there more as a tripwire deployment. Does Saud really want to go to war with Turkey? Or, more interesting, do the Turks then appeal to their NATO allies in that airbase for air-support in defense? Does Turkey try to invoke Article 5 of the NATO agreements if attacked? Is it enough to slow the Sauds down and make them think?