by Ramin Mazaheri
Qatar crisis from the Iranian view: Waiting for a feudal revolution, still…
This simplest way to understand the Iranian view of the current Qatar crisis is to grasp this totally-ignored reality: No matter what happens, there are many Iranian politicians, mullahs, social leaders and average citizens who will not stop calling to abolish the Qatari monarchy.
Who makes similar calls in the West? Nobody.
This issue – the political modernization of Qatari society – is never, ever discussed by the Western media during their coverage of the current blockade of Qatar. Nor by their priests or politicians. At the core of their understanding, the West latently believes that “enlightened despotism” is good enough for the Qatari people.
But not Iran. Iran is an avowed supporter for the political modernization of their neighbors and has been for decades.
You cannot ignore the fundamental fact that Iran is a revolutionary society consumed with the idea of spreading modern democracy, especially in the Muslim world. This principle is a vibrant, motivating force in Iranian and regional politics, and it has to be accounted for if you are seeking the Iranian view of Iran-Qatar relations.
Qatar and its kingdom is essentially a feudal structure, and as long as it remains so it cannot – nor will truly want to – ally completely with Revolutionary Iran. This enormous societal difference is – hold on to your hats, Western readers! – a bigger obstacle to close bilateral ties than that phony Shia-Sunni “divide” so ardently promoted by Israel and the United States.
Therefore, any speculation of some sort of new “Iran-Qatar” alliance, joined by Turkey, drastically overstretches the realm of political possibility. (Iran and NATO-member Turkey are not even allied that strongly!)
My point is: Such an alliance would not just be a revolution in regional politics, but it would require an actual revolution in Qatar. As long as Iran follows the tenets of the 1979 Revolution, the Qatari monarchy cannot both ally with Iran and keep their privileges.
Iran would love that the Qatari people left monarchy behind and joined the small list of modern countries – just love it! Sadly, there is no indication from the Qatari Street that this will happen.
For Qatar to ally fully with Iran would be a breathtaking step towards Muslim modernity. But Qatar’s monarchy means it will never have a modern or even a coherent political program: Some rich princes will secretly fund Daesh, while others will fund the superb charity arms of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Again, you will never read this in the media, but Iran’s modern goals of equality and democratic participation are the opposite goals of Qatar’s political structure of feudal monarchy and… this precludes any true alliance between Iran and Qatar.
Given this real hostility, the Qatari monarchy will always keep Iran at an arm’s length; the Iranian people will roll their eyes at the Qatari monarchy and rail against the capitalist injustice of poorly distributed natural resources.
Despite these deeply ingrained differences – again, going far beyond questions of “percentage of Shia in Qatar” – many wonder if Qatar is going to ally with Iran as a response to the demands-by-deadline spearheaded by Saudi Arabia?
The short answer to that is: Not really.
How many of your ‘work friends’ are really your friends?
There is absolutely no doubt that Iran and Qatar will never sever relations …at least not until the last drop of gas is drained from the natural gas field which they share, which is not only the largest in the world but has more recoverable reserves than all the world’s other gas fields combined.
This shared ownership of South Pars/North Dome guarantees at least cordial ties, full stop.
South Pars is the largest economic hub in Iran, and when development is complete in a few years it will produce $100 billion annually and boost Iran’s GDP by 5-6% all by itself. You can see its vital importance to Tehran, and why our end will be defended at all costs by Iran’s navy. Iran is certainly not going to invade Qatar’s end, but I can’t speak for Saudi Arabia.
(What is impressive is how much gas from South Pars is going to be entirely dedicated to domestic consumption.
It’s a staggering feat of Iranian socialism. People say, “Iran is simply buying off its people by providing cheap gas”. Talk about sour grapes, LOL. Yes, that’s what good, true politicians do: provide vital goods and services to its people cheaply and effectively. Then we re-elect them. Repeat process until there is equality. This is democratic modernity, and socialism.)
But, for revolutionary Iran, dealing with the current Qatari leadership ends at this level. This level is merely “mutually beneficial economic cooperation” – a common refrain of Iranian politicians – and not Western capitalism.
To quote Khomeini – who restated this in several forms: “The goal of the Iranian Revolution was not to lower the price of watermelons.” Or to pump more oil.
Iran is simply not going to stop pushing for Muslim democracy, no matter how many rich friends they lose out on.
Qatar is at a crossroads, but is it a ‘Spring’ or an ‘Uprising’
At Iran’s Press TV (my employer) it was never called the “Arab Spring” – it was always the “Arab Uprising”. The Qatar crisis is actually an exciting new front in the history of the Arab Uprising, to Iranians.
The Qatar crisis returns us to the burning, core issue of the Arab Uprising: Overthrowing Western-backed dictators/kings/tribal chiefs and implementing modern Muslim democracy, finally.
This is the 2nd fundamental principle which the West completely ignores when discussing the Qatar crisis!
This criticism cannot be over-stressed! It is as if the West believes that monarchies are part of democracy…but more on that later.
Again, Iran looks at Qatar and it occurs to us: Perhaps an Arab monarchy finally falls over here? Because the Arab Uprising has failed everywhere but Tunisia: Only 1 dictator has been dislodged (so far), and nary even a prince.
A huge reason for this is foreign interference in Egypt, Bahrain and elsewhere: The West does not want to see any upsetting of the status quo. For those not paying attention, the status quo is imperialist capitalism which requires the support of dictatorships (Morocco, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel, etc.) or the creation of total turmoil in modern, Muslim democratic, independent nations (Syria, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, etc.).
And this is why nearly everyone – the US, France, Russia – is falling all over each other to mediate an end to this crisis: they want the status quo.
The enemy of revolutionary change is the status quo
What the West and Israel will not accept, of course, is a Qatari revolution: There is no way that Western imperialism will be as effective in the Middle East and Africa if the Qatari people are allowed to use their resources freely to support Muslim democratic movements.
What they can accept – China and Russia included – is something like a 10-20% reduction on the margins. A minor change in the distribution of wealth, but nothing drastic.
Qatar, so incredibly rich, makes such a reduction even less bothersome.
What’s often heard in Iran but never in the West is: Qatar’s allies are not progressive because a large minority of Western nations remain monarchies. Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, Japan, etc. – the list is neither small nor powerless.
So there is obviously tremendous sympathy for monarchies in these areas, while it is anathema in Iran. This seems to be a latent reason for Western support for Muslim monarchies…but how many journalists want to challenge the status quo and support Muslim democracy, eh?
Iranians know it is totally false to say that a monarchy can be purely symbolic. A so-called “crowned republic” – like the United Kingdom – is an absurd contradiction; the idea that Queen Elizabeth II – the legal owner of 1/6th of the world’s land – plays no influence in political affairs is ludicrous and accepted only by the delusional.
But even many non-monarchies in the West are anti-revolutionary reactionaries, and not just the US. France’s new President Emmanuel Macron has announced that he will write the labor code, and then deign to have Parliament rubber-stamp his decree! Not wanting to get “tangled up” in legislative debate is the opposite of democracy – Muslim, Christian or otherwise.
But there is much more than just cultural sympathy for monarchy at play.
The idea that the US and Saudi Arabia would peacefully “let Qatar go” – i.e., to choose their own path, is without precedent. The US and their 11,000 soldiers will not leave Qatar willingly any more than they have left Guantanamo Bay; Saudi Arabia would propose an even worse blockade. The idea that Qatar would be allowed to go peacefully into the camp of Iran is totally verboten despite the “free marketplace of ideas”.
Saudi Arabia has clearly purchased the right from Trump to embargo Qatar – a scant half-trillion or so in arms sales – and the leading dictatorships of the Arab world are indeed threatening them quite seriously. All of these foreign groups will defend the Qatari monarchy – the status quo – at all costs.
And, obviously, the “enlightened despots” of Qatar are not so enlightened to realize that the people of Qatar should decide things democratically, so the Qatari monarchy will defend their position as well.
So, from without and within, all these forces decrease the odds of a serious, new Iran-Qatar alliance.
Minor changes in overall balance are likely, but no real tipping of the scales; a slight change in where Qatar’s resources go. That is not revolution, but business.
Business, in any anti-capitalist country like Iran, is not political but moral. Morally oppose the Zionist project, for example? Then Iran will support you as much as they can, and not just with moral support.
Bottom line: Qatar will most likely continue to do what small but effective leadership groups do – play on both sides. Pumping oil with Iran but allying with Arab dictators, funding Daesh and the Muslim Brotherhood, etc.
A rare idea: Let’s discuss what a Qatari revolution would look like
Well there’s an idea I’ve never read in an English or French newspaper!
Qatar could be an enormous game changer in 2017 in promoting Muslim democracy…were the people to control their tremendous resources instead of the monarchy.
(But, let’s not forget: Egypt could be an enormous game changer in 2017 in promoting Muslim democracy. Morocco could be an enormous game changer in 2017 in promoting Muslim democracy. Afghanistan could have been an enormous game changer in 1980 in promoting Muslim democracy – catch my drift?)
Iran has nearly no cultural power on a global level. Qatar is different, thanks to the BBC-aping of Al-Jazeera. Their state media has a credibility which cannot be easily tarnished among Western journalists, even if it starts to actually promote modern Muslim democracy. Yes, Twitter suspended Al-Jazeera’s account (love the West’s “free marketplace of ideas”), but the horse is already out of the barn on this one and it could finally be harnessed for democratic good.
Qatar could easily win over the Arab Street if they openly committed to supporting anti-monarchy ideas, anti-imperialist occupations like Zionism, and pro-democracy forces like the Muslim Brotherhood. These are all ideas which the Arab Street wants, after all.
Allying with Iran could very well be the only way Qatar survives an invasion by Saudi Arabia: Iran has gone to the wall for Palestine, and we share no oil fields! But Iranians are not going to fight to prop up a monarchy – that’s what the West has done in the region for a couple centuries….
Obviously, Qatar would be subject to an even worse international blockade than what the Saudis have threatened, because that’s what happens to independent countries. However, they certainly have the economic resources to deal with it and only a small population to care for.
Qatar would have to give up the petty nationalism of “Qatar ethnicity” and realize that the immigrants they host and employ are actually all “Qataris”. That would be a major change, but we are dreaming of a modern revolution here, and such revolutions always reject ethnic rivalries.
So let’s dream even further: 90% of those living in Qatar are immigrants – imagine what enormous global progress they could create were they to give those immigrants citizenship and actually have a democracy? The possibilities for modern, multicultural good stagger the mind….
What Iran will do in the main is to continue its support for democratic Islamic socialism. The problem is – the Qatari monarchy suppresses this.
So there is plenty in common between Iran and Qatar…but there are far too many differences. Both countries, I remind the reader, are Muslim, so religion is not one of them.
Iran, history has proven, does not play realpolitik – that is for Western capitalists and dangerously desperate nations like Israel. France, the US, the UK – they might bow and scrape before the Qatari monarchy in order to sell guns, keep oil cheap and fund stockholder takeovers, but not Iran.
Saudi Arabia and Turkey may rush in and make crazy gambits, but Iran will – as always – move cautiously and preserve its moral and political Revolution first and foremost. Qatar is neither Palestine nor Syria – Iran won’t risk much for them. Get the Qatari people in the street, and then they’ll consider it.
Will Qatar be the first feudal monarchy to fall in a new stage of the Arab Uprising?
That is the main question in Iran. With or without them, our Uprising continues.
Ramin Mazaheri is the chief correspondent in Paris for Press TV and has lived in France since 2009. He has been a daily newspaper reporter in the US, and has reported from Iran, Cuba, Egypt, Tunisia, South Korea and elsewhere. His work has appeared in various journals, magazines and websites, as well as on radio and television.
A novel viewpoint (to this Brit at least) and makes a lot of sense. I have no views on one form of government vis another, for instance mediaevalism vs democratic socialism, it depends on the quality of the leaders and the quality of their flock. The leader of Qatar seems to be relatively progressive (al Jazeera) and pragmatic (rapprochement with Iran over gas pipeline and with Dr. Assad of Syria over flying rights); more progressive and pragmatic than any Western leader that I wot of. If the Qatari people are likewise progressive and pragmatic, or even more so than their leader, it bodes well; but meanwhile it is right for the Iranian leadership to be prudent till they see what Qataris are really made of. Russian president Putin waited till 2015, to see how solidly the Syrian people were behind Dr.Assad, before committing Russia fully to the aid of Syria.
Qatar is “a gas company with a seat at the UN”. Qatar is a kingdom. Possibly we will soon see if it is a real country or not.
Wondering why ordinary Iranians living in their homeland are not demanding right now to their government for specific contingency plans in the event of a massive bombardment against the country’s strategic infrastructure (a well synchronized and devastating operation that will be carried out by the Israeli-Arab military alliance).
It is an undeniable fact that a major regional war in the Middle East is just around the corner and seems that people living in Iran have no clue of where to go when bombs start plummeting all over the country (air shelters, escape routes, safe zones, etc).
Ramin Mazaheri should be more concerned about their fellow countrymen and the implications of a major military operation against Iran rather than covering issues that have no relevance at all.
Since the US, Israel and assorted other countries have been openly threatening to attack Iran for some 40 years now, I’d assume that such plans have already existed for quite some time and that most people in Iran know this.
Tha’t just a guess from a long ways away, so who knows? I also would have thought that the US government had plans for what to do when a major hurricane inevitably hit New Orleans too, so I’m often wrong.
I’d also guess that this would be a different “beat” for a reporter and that Press TV would have someone else covering this more domestic issue.
As an American, I have one opinion about forms of government. That is that all human beings have an inalienable right to do the following.
“That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.” — US Declaration of Independence
Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed.
One little game to play in the US this weekend is to notice how rarely that passage is read during the “Fourth of July” festivities. The lines just prior to that will be read often, the bit about Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of happiness. But almost always the speaker will then stop and not read the important bit above.
These days, the US government tends to sound a lot like old King George.
At last, the article that I was waiting for. Thank you, dear Ramin Mazaheri to share your Iranian point of view on this strange entraglement between the Saudis and the Qataris.
I may have some sideviews, okay? Since this is a pure blockade, imposed by the Saudis and some Gulf states, this has nothing to do with an ‘uprising’ or Arab spring or whatsoever imho. This looks to me like big Saudi brother is stamping his feet and demands that all other kids are following his path. Or other said, the Saudis demand from Qatar that they hand over their foreign policies to Ryad.
‘Supporting terrorism’, my ass. If there is any entity that is supporting terrorism it’s Saudi Arabia.
As seen oftener the last times, it seems that quite some geopolitical moves are cooked up by a 36 years old shady -and probably broke- businessman in Washington (Kushner) and a 31 years old hothead-crown prince in Saudi Arabia (Mohammed bin Salman).
You overestimate the influence of royal families in Europe. They have no say in daily political dynamics. You may be right that they are involved in the 1%, the deep states, or whatever you might want to name them. They are seen here as people waving at people. In my country they are described as ‘the best payed family on social welfare’.
What will happen next remains to be seen. There has been a demand list handed over by the Saudis, well, that is simply ridiculous. It was written to be refused. And then?
What I’m afraid of, as always in these kind of conflicts, that other nations will choose sides. Try to imagine that Pakistan -as a natural ally- will choose sides with Saudi Arabia, but that also India, that imports 70% of its gas needs from Qatar, will choose sides with them.
Both of them are nuclear armed nations and not the best friends, to your remembrance.
A short addition.
May I congratulate you, Ramin Mazaheri, about the use of the words ‘verboten’ and ‘realpolitik’? Because they are pure German expressions. I’m not German, but I love their people and their language, since I work there. It takes time to discover the hidden nice subtilities in their difficult, but beautiful language.
Hilarious- just hilarious. Naive fools were always told that the local stooges the British recruited to do its bidding in various Empire nations were ‘independent’ and ‘working in the interests of the locals’. The Roman Empire did the same in lands it conquered, soft kidnapping sons of local bigwigs, taking them back to Rome for an ‘education’ and returning them to rule over their people after the brainwashing was complete.
There is no such thing as Qatar in the sense any of you undertstand a nation. After the Turkish Empire collapsed (assisted by the British in the 19th century to prevent a disasterous power vacuum, the British mostly inhereted the ex-Turkish lands in the Middle East. The British identified useful leading families/tribes, paid to have their kids given the best British school/military education, and sent them back to rule for Britain.
Qatar is merely a geo-political support system for British and American military bases, and the main British intelligence bases in the region. GCHQ taps all local electronic traffic there (and obviously gives the results to the NSA as well). Local ‘politics’ is never ever allowed to interfere with the needs of the ***real*** rulers- the British.
So when you read dribble about a ‘dispute’ between Saudi and Qatar, it is simply a GCHQ/MI6 psy-op, and you should be asking for what purpose the propaganda lie is being disseminated at this time.
Did you take 9/11 at face value? Then why are you foolish enough to take this psy-op play at face value? Press-TV is the least acute newswire on the planet. In reality it doesn’t exist as a true newswire but is a collection of very naive volunteers in various nations, and these naive volunteers show a remarkable alignment with establishment crafted ‘anti-establishment’ psy-op movements (like Corbyn in the UK).
The real focus should be on the absolute promise the USA has made to go to war with Iran. Every other target has been successfully ticked off the PNAC list. Iran is the last cos Iran is the biggest and most difficult target. And Iran leads to the USA using nukes for the first time in public since WW2.
Iranians think themselves masters of diplomacy. Asm them how well that worked out last time when the Mongols came knocking, and mass murdered every last child woman and man in major Persian cities. Diplomacy and ‘clever’ words can do nothing when your enemy has infinite military resources, and controls 99.99% of the world’s media output. Iran dangles by a thread, and that thread is the reluctance of the people of the UK and USA to countenance a war of the type a US attack on Iran would be.
But the people can and are manipulated. Their instinct for peaceful co-existence can and has been overcome (go see histroy). For sure Iranians are teflon coated when it comes to terror smears- not being arab or sunni helps greatly in this instance. But the monsters are never going to stop. A ‘pawn sacrifice’ with Qatar may not work, but it has a very real chance of doing so. Events in Qatar can be controlled by the Deep State down to the last dot and comma. This is not something they can do with the direct Iranian narrative.
Fools claim the USA tries to ‘provoke’ Russia. This is never ever the case. But the USA certainly tries to provoke non-Empire power targets. The greatest ‘thinkers’ the Deep State can recruit are paid bilions of dollars to come up with scenarios that can lead to war with Iran. The bizzare Qatar play is one of these scenarios in motion. An essential part of this play is that dim bulbs on our side take the ‘facts’ at face value. And too many dim bulbs on our side still try to learn things by reading the ‘serious’ zionist newspapers, or listening to the ‘serious’ analysis programming on the BBC etc. The Deep State propaganda has a million forms, with a whole ton of rubbish aimed at people who consider themselves ‘informed’ and ‘independent’ of mainstream political views.
Take nothing that ever comes from any type of Deep State propaganda outlet at face value. Do a bit of research and go discover how many news outlets you currently ‘trust’ originated from the BBC/MI5 World Service- when the BBC correctly anticipated the coming impact of the internet, and started to craft ‘national’ news outlets using people that had had a long history of working at the World Service. This stuff isn’t hidden or secret- it just doesn’t get much exposure. But the BBC, by its very nature, cannot hide its trails.
The BBC (via its many tentacles) is at the heart of the fantasy version of current events in the Middle East. Never forget that so deeply is the BBC embedded, it was a BBC journo who accidently announced the collapse of WTC7 building on 9/11 (the one not hit by a plane) ***before*** it happened. The BBC actually, as a major psy-op, encourages fools to mock it. What you laugh at, you don’t think to fear. It’s why political satire has always been a massive part of the British poltical system (which the Yanks inhereted). Yet in hopeless nations you get sent to prison for mocking the leaders there. What you laugh at you don’t think to fear. And when you don’t think, the monsters win.
If I understand Qatari are less than 330 000 people. Qatar also has more than 1.2 million foreign workers.
Trying to impose some democracy on Qatar would be just the willingness to destroy Qatar and I do not believe that the Qatari are ready to share their privilege with the foreign workers.
If Iran was willing to impose democracy in Qatar, they would be acting like the US have been doing all over the world since WW2.
If Iran by getting along with Qatar is creating an issue for Saudi-Arabia that should be already a satisfaction
“Iran has gone to the wall for Palestine, and we share no oil fields”. I very much agree with you on this point.
The Palestinians who are predominantly Sunnis are supported by Shia Iran, at great political and material costs to Tehran.
Only by virtue of Iran taking a principled stance on Palestine can one explain the persistence of Tehran’s policies.
Much of the hostility that Iran faces emanates from its pricipled stand on Palestine.
And this is something that even the Palestinians themselves forget from time to time.
Saudi Arabia threw Palestine under the bus years ago, but still the some in the Hamas leadership still reflexively look to the Gulf for guidance, because they place their sectarian credentials above the interests of Palestine.
Remember how Khaled Meshaal turned against Damascus at a critical point in war on Syria and promptly took up residence in Doha?
The hopelessly corrupt PA also harbors anti-Iran sentiments.
Who is a better friend to Palestine/Palestinians Saudia Arabia that now openly colludes with Israel, or Iran, who ensures that the war criminals and child killers in Tel-a-Viv have sleep nights?
Iranians have placed principle and morality over political expediency, and that is why the Islamic Republic continues to strive…
I’m mostly pro Iran, but then this article stretches it a bit with self righteousness. It’s like Iran has not sinned and can throw the first stone. How old is this revolutionary government, how beloved and how stable in the future or how just had it been with its political opponents to pass judgements on others? Yes there is a stark contrast between Qatar and Iran, and a very stark one between Saudi and Iran. But some of the things you mention, like Iran will not be true friends because Qatar is a monarchy and Iran a democracy. Is Iran not friends with Oman? Is that king not a friend to Iran? Just because yours is a revolutionary govt, a theocracy, are all forms of monarchy wrong? Are all socialist govt’s noble?
What’s all this about Iran being a democracy? Iran calls itself an Islamic republic. Not a modern democracy. And Islam is not a democracy at all. It is all about Allah’s will. Whatever system Iran follows is stop gap. It used to work perfectly fine even with the Shahs of old, when the ulema used to stay clear of politics and guide the old kings. During the pahalvis (upstart Shahs) and the qajars the system got screwed on accout of lmperialism.
Please don’t write things that are so out there that they have to be publicly balanced, like this statement:
“90% of those living in Qatar are immigrants – imagine what enormous global progress they could create were they to give those immigrants citizenship and actually have a democracy?”
How many Afghan refugees has Iran made into citizens? Yes Iran has given then refugee and the difference is that Qatar has just imported paid slaves, but the emigrant slaves in Qatar are happy as are the local Arabs who don’t have to work not share citizenship with their maids. Afghans are just getting by.
Then this:
“Qatar could easily win over the Arab Street if they openly committed to supporting anti-monarchy ideas, anti-imperialist occupations like Zionism, and pro-democracy…”
And this would lead to what, Saudis invading for sure. And will over paid under employed Qataris who are happy to be bribed by their beloved king to call for a revolution?, What exactly and who would it benefit. A fat benevolent king (the chief) and his subjects (forty thieves) are perfectly happy with their “I don’t give a shit for anyone else” lives. And their happy to do their bit for Islam by funding the really asylum needing head chopping Arabs.
And finally this:
“The goal of the Iranian Revolution was not to lower the price of watermelons.”
This statement was one made in frustration, when the Ayatollah did not like being criticised for the state of the economy, and you are quoting it as a political lesson or some phenomenal quote. This is what happens when people start to idolize or venerate fallible human beings. Stick to Ali (Ibn Abi Talib), you won’t go wrong.
Don’t take it the wrong way, this criticism. But me being a shia can take your article apart, and in a more substantial way, with all the fanfare of links and solid arguments, if I’m so inclined. Then how easy are you making it for a hater. Be less condescending in your style and yes, keep up the good work. Don’t be a fanboy or sing your own tune, takes away more than it adds.
As an Arab Muslims, I would like to thank Ramin Mazaheri for this very interesting article. I have to be honest and say that I got a little bored of the mainly French related articles he was writing on :-), but that is mainly because I am less interested in the French political drama.
I would like to touch on 3 interesting point mentioned by Ramin:
1…………….
“So let’s dream even further: 90% of those living in Qatar are immigrants – imagine what enormous global progress they could create were they to give those immigrants citizenship and actually have a democracy? The possibilities for modern, multicultural good stagger the mind….”
In reality, this point is actually not so far-fetched or impossible.
Take for example the UAE…..there is a significant number people of Iranian origin having UAE citizenship, even intermarrying within the tribal families of the UAE. I am in no way supposing that the UAE is some kind of democracy or a beacon of human rights. My point is, that it is not an impossibility that a certain amount of people living in Qatar could actually become citizens through a process of naturalization.
An interesting article on this issue and one of the rare studies conducted on Qatari citizenship:
https://dohanews.co/path-qatari-citizenship/
It explains how Qataris (and this goes for the other Gulf states) do not give citizenship due to fear of loss of identity, security and spending more on welfare.
Another interesting study claims: Naturalization, is among the three components, this is the least knowable. This is the case not only because Qatari authorities have not published any data on naturalization but also because, as previously discussed, naturalization in Qatar occurred in two large, unexpected waves that had hitherto been undetected. Thus, if there is a next large-scale naturalization, it will probably also be unexpected and consequently unpredictable.
http://www.meforum.org/5081/how-many-qataris
2……………
“Iran, history has proven, does not play realpolitik”.
I am not really sure if that is completely true:
– a 15 to 25 billion trade volume with the UAE is not realpolitik?
– or is Iranian helping the U.S. government in Afghanistan, first cooperating against the Taliban and then later growing relationships with the Taliban to undermine the Americans, is that not real politik ?
And why should Iran not conduct realpolitik in relation with the Arab gulf nations if it is in the interest of Iranian business and security ?
3………………………………..
“Get the Qatari people in the street, and then they’ll consider it.”
I do not see how you can get a population of 250,000 citizens earning a per capita average GDP of more than 75,000 – 100,000 USD on to the streets, assuming that Qatari nationals are the “Qatari people”.
The Arabs that rose up, were either starving, humiliated, jailed or suppressed….When they rose up they were either killed, became part of a geostrategical game or had no leadership or representation.
Uprisings without organization, planning and leadership only leads to chaos and further humiliation.
Let’s hope the Qataris will have some common sense and start working towards a constructive, peaceful and stable region based on trust, respect and mutual interests of all peoples in the region.
This possible break-up in the GCC is a natural process due to the very nature of these corrupt monarchies….whether it actually continues and escalate, we will have to wait and see.
Ramin you’re spot on with regards to European royal families, they own large portion of their economies through offshore havens and City of London dark pools. Furthermore, european royals have deep tentacles inside their respective intelligence agencies. The crown heads are shaping and directing internal and foreign policy through their intelligence services. For the profane looking to get a glimpse at the power of european royal families, Wikileaks cables are a good starting point. UK royals are all over central Asia plotting on behalf of oil and gas producers, Spain’s court is trying to overthrow govt’s left and right in South America, and plotting to secure business for their conglomerates. Just a couples of weeks ago the former Spanish King was in Saudi Arabia pitching a military deal to take markets away from french naval manufacturer. European masses are clueless…
Dear Ramin:, This might be a good time to post what I had intended to say in response to the Saker’s latest. Perhaps you can comment as to why a move that would almost sure have foreclosed any US notion of attacking Iran never materialized. I thought it out a the time of the first Gulf War an hoped, whem Tu22M bombers started flying from an Iranian airfield. But that evaporated and the hard Russian Iranian alliance that would change everything (including Russia’s potentially parlous logistical situation in Syria that Saker mentions) seems to be nowhere..No-one can even be sure, in the event of an attack, that the Russians would even come to Iran’s aid.
How would things change if Russians, working rapidly and quietly, consummated a build up in Iran featuring Tu22’s, some Mig 31’s, far stronger air defenses, state of the art land based anti
ship missiles and some potent , long range ground to ground missiles.?
For one thing, western warships in the Gulf would become as much hostages as offensive threats.. But the real significance of such a deployment., and the reason that the above would impose at the least enforced stalemate, lies in it’s economic implications. I do not believe that the would be any possibility, once the pieces were in place, in stopping attacks of the Saudi/ Emirate economies and , potentially absolutely massive disruption of the global economy. Moves could range from “shots across the. bow like knocking out the Yanbu pipeline and the nexus of pipelines leading to Ras Tanura and points north.. A far more serious blow would be to knock out Ras Tanura itself
along with the refineries and offloading points to the north, The destruction of the huge H2S cleaning facilities at Abqaiq (, given that 80% of Saudi oil is sour, could shut production down, by itself, for up to 2 years.
I’d very much like to hear your views on the alliance that ought to be but isn’t.. Enjoy your posts..
Tom
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Dear Tom
In the eventuality of an all out war, Iran is going to do all those things you mentioned and a lot more, and it does not need Russia to do them for it. Russia can do a lot more things to help Iran during such a conflict, but they don’t have to fight that battle for Iran. The Persian gulf at such a time would be Iran’s completely. Even now, they harrass US warships regularly (https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/us-navy-iran-jeopardizing-international-navigation-harassing-ships-with-their-navy-2017-3) they even monitor them with drones (https://www.google.co.in/amp/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/35443879). They keep realtime information on which naval asset is where and readiness and the practice (drills) to perfectly anhialate the enemy. And the US and all those little despots across the bay know that they will be sitting ducks if war breaks out.
The Iranians are very nationalistic. The nuclear issue got the religious govt backing and support from all colour of iranians. And similarly many iranians opposed letting the Russians use the air field in Iran, irrespective of their political affiliations. This is apart from western propaganda, even Iranians I met at the time were not for it. So having Russian or any other boots or planes on the ground is not practical.
Regards
Dear Partisan of Ali, Thanks much for responding. The one huge advantage to Iran in having Russian forces in residence is that the US-Israeli attack that might, through staged incidents or whatever, eventuate, simply won,t.. No-one in power, however crazy, is that crazy. I don’t doubt that the Iranians could do a great deal of damage (although there is much question as to how accurate their rockets are) but think of the terrible destruction from Diego Garcia based aircraft, subs,,carrier task forces lurking south of the Gulf,.
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There is obviously tension and mistrust between Russia and Iran (not surprising after Medvedev,s earlier knife in the back). II would like–although it’s a touchy subject–to see it explored.
Iranian society seems to bear little resemblance to the caricature projected by the West. There are 25 mosques in Tehran alone and no evidence that the Jewish community thinks of itself as Jewish first, Iranian second. Quite the opposite.I don’t expect they’re any more anxious to be bombed into dust by the beloved Israelis than anyone else.
By the way I am among those who lives were perturbated by the lunatic Saudi-emirate gambit. I was booked out of LA on April 7 on an emirate owned airline that was to land and connect to Niarobi at Doha. Flight cancelled.! Cheers, Tom
Dear Tom
Humanity compels our hearts to feel for all humans. As a shia, I would feel terrible if there is any attack on Iran. I’m sure, even if Iranian Jews are completely apolitical, they would still feel for any attack on fellow Jews anywhere, including israel. Just as they would for an attack on their nation.
Regarding conflict, you can, for the current time, think of it as a Mexican standoff where Iran is holding a dead man’s trigger. At what cost would the Americans want to take on Iran. None of their bases would survive, none of their fleet in the region, none of their men. Even if nothing of Iran would remain, what would be left? And the Iranians are creative, they would hit back in ways the other side cannot imagine.
And yes, their rockets are accurate and so are their drones. And they will swarm the enemy. Just like North Korea, Iran is not attacked because the other side knows the consequences. The same kind of mutual deterance keeps peace along the Lebanon Israel border. Only when one side (Israel) thinks it can overcome the deterance will it lead to war. The same applies to Iran.
I’m sure there are more than 25 mosques in Tehran. I had seen one in nearly every area. And there are nearly a dozen imam zadehs.
Regards
Western monarchies are fundamentally Christian – Queen Elizabeth II is titular head of the Church of England. If the particular monarch sees the divine basis of his or her inherited position in terms of imposing obligations rather than conferring entitlements, then monarchs can be forces for democracy and enlightenment: Juan Carlos II of Spain, who played a key role in removing Francoism, also showed great personal courage during the attempted coup by Tejero. Very much on the obligations part of the monarchical spectrum, like her father and grandfather, HMQ (to use the official British acronym) has for decades now acted as one-woman foreign intelligence service who has met personally most living world leaders. The story of her in the 1990’s personally driving the King of Saudi Arabia at very high speeds along the narrow roads of the Sandringham estate, until he pleaded for her to slow down, is now officially endorsed (women can’t drive in Saudi). Her grandfather (George V) played a major role in the constitutional crisis of 1912 in limiting the power of the aristocracy and turning Britain to a democracy: her father (George VI) basically worried himself to death from the knowledge that one false step during WWII could destroy morale (he and his wife spent many nights in the royal train in railway tunnels, being shunted from one nerve-wracking “morale boosting” engagement to another). Britain also shows how wrong ‘uns like the Nazi-sympathising Edward VIII or crackpot neopagan Charles can be sidelined in mature democracies: parliamentary democracies tend to do better with constitutional monarchs than with inoffensive nonentities such as Wulff or Pertini.
When the Gulf monarchies were British protectorates (until 1966?) there was the hope that Muslim monarchies would evolve like Christian ones, first going through a phase of enlightened despotism (say Frederick the Great of Prussia, Catherine II of Russia, Joseph II of Austria) which then democratised. There’s still hope of this happening at the other end of the Arab world, in Morocco (I was in Casablanca a couple of years ago, and the adverts showing modern European-looking mums doing yuppie type things, with nary a hijab in sight, were everywhere). Of course, there is very little an enlightened monarch can do, even at great personal risk (if nothing else, Mohammed VI is a very brave man), when many of the population are bloodthirsty religious maniacs. Look what happened to Tsar Alexander II, the “Tsar Liberator” (although the actual assassins in this case were on the left, Narodnaya Vol’nya, “People’s Will”, Chyornye Sot, “Black Hundreds” disposed of many liberals)
It is public information by now, that tejeros coup was p.r. operation at the highest level… you seem to give too much creed to our unelected representatives… ” Juan Carlos II of Spain, who played a key role in removing Francoism, also showed great personal courage during the attempted coup by Tejero”
you know Ramin I have a fiend whose husband works in Qatar – he’s a displaced Iraqi – and the story is this – the royal family of Qatar was out hunting – this is no bullshit – and they were across their border and were kidnapped – some of them were returned but there was a number of them that were ransomed – and this is what this is all about – from inside Qatar –
RM
“Qatar could easily win over the Arab Street if they openly committed to supporting anti-monarchy ideas, anti-imperialist occupations like Zionism, and pro-democracy forces like the Muslim Brotherhood. These are all ideas which the Arab Street wants, after all.”
Since when has the Muslim brotherhood been a friend of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah or Muslims? Or for real democracy, revolution (not the zionazi soros colour coded regime change frauds) or socialism? The mb was initially created by the zio-west in the 1950s to oppose any socialist moves that might threaten fascist israeli and western hegemony in the Mideast and currently have promoted israeli interests, greater israel interests, to be more precise, to a tee.
Otherwise, interesting article on Iran-qatar potential interaction.
Nice article, but leaving the Iran and Qatar deliberations aside, to use the words Muslim and Democracy together in a sentence is nothing but a contradiction in terms. The only democracy any Sunni Muslim country can achieve already has a name, and it is called ISIS. Therefor all Sunni Muslim countries tend not towards democracy, but rather towards dictatorships or monarchies, same difference.
And the Sunni Muslim dictatorships, monarchies and ISIS all unwaveringly support the USA and Britain, and therefor by default they support Israel also.
Iran is a strange kettle of fish, but then again, they are virtually the only Shia country out there. All that can be said about Iran is that they tend to the direction opposite to what the Sunni Muslim countries take.
The Muslim Brotherhood is just another Sunni concept which is as effective at achieving anything except intangible good vibrations as are the African American brothers in the hood there in the USA.
And nothing can stop the Shia crescent between Iran, Iraq and Syria from forming. The only country with the readily available man power to do it is Turkey, and they are a bit pissed off with the US, Saudi Arabia and co at present.
Not real-politic? During the US embassy ‘hostage crisis’, when the focus of all attention was on the US embassy, the communists in Iran were rounded up & killed, systematically. This is after the communists had helped Khomeini return to Iran and take power.
Ramin this comment by you jumped out: Qatar could easily win over the Arab Street if they openly committed to supporting anti-monarchy ideas, anti-imperialist occupations like Zionism, and pro-democracy forces like the Muslim Brotherhood.
Do you really believe that the Muslim Brotherhood is so pro-democracy? If my understanding of the the war that broke out in Syria after the Arab “spring” is correct, it was the MB that introduced military violence against the Assad regime. Wasn’t it Morsi the MB leader who put out a call for his cadre to travel to Syria a fight against the Assad regime? (the Egyptian military put stop to that nonsense three days later by overthrowing Morsi’s government). In the first few months the war in Syria was indeed a civil war, it took almost a year before all of those Takfiri forces funded by Qatar and Saudi Arabia showed up turning that civil war into an international conflict.
Sorry I cannot accept that the MB are pro-democracy forces — however they began, today they are nothing other than mercenaries for Western imperialism/
This is more than a brilliant analysis! It is also a road map of Qatar’s possible future. by Mazari By me: Qatar could change the world by ridding itself of it’s Monarchy. After all normal Islam, peaceful, progressive, is two billion strong and growing.That is a vast percentage of the 7.5 billion world inhabitants!
Fascinating to see Ramin write a serious straightforward article, and not just the usual heavily ironic pieces. Nice to hear from the real you!
“Iran is a revolutionary society consumed with the idea of spreading modern democracy, especially in the Muslim world. This principle is a vibrant, motivating force in Iranian and regional politics […]”
Yes, maybe. Then why the political prisoners, the activists detained and tortured, the kidnappings? Why? I’m afraid this picture is not as rosy as it seems.
Just one example:
“Iran: Writer arrested in violent raid on her house following prison sentence for story about stoning
Writer and human rights activist Golrokh Ebrahimi Iraee has been in prison since 2016, and is facing a 6-year sentence. She has been convicted of charges including “insulting Islamic sanctities” for writing an unpublished story about the horrific practice of stoning in Iran.”
So. That tells me 2 things: there’s stoning in Iran, and you can go to prison for “insulting Islamic sanctities”, whatever that means, although it’s probably “daring to have a different opinion.” If *this* is the kind of values Iran is pushing on her neighbors, God help us.
In conclusion: State and Religion must be separate, otherwise it is too easy, too tempting to abuse power on the grounds that “it’s God’s will and that’s it.” Religion should never, ever, be forced on people.
How does this differ from the case of Julian Assange who is in jail and threatened by extrajudicial death by droning by a US Sec of State who also said that his crime was: “Offending the International Class”?
After all, Assange, like the lady you defend, merely revealed the truth.
At least the lady is Iranian and therefore legally under the jurisdiction of Iranian courts.