Dear friend,
Since Dorian is now a terrifying CAT5 I wanted to quickly update you on my situation. In the last 48 hours the projected track of Hurricane Dorian has changed quite a bit, see for yourself:
The good news is that Dorian is projected to most likely remain offshore, though that is by no means certain!
The bad news is that it is now a CAT5. That is a very scary sight: (look at that eye!!!)
In this enhanced satellite image provided by NOAA, Hurricane Dorian is shown very close to the Bahamas at 7:30 a.m, EDT, Aug. 31, 2019. Dorian is a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 150 mph (NOAA via Key News)
If Dorian makes landfall we can expect total destruction, similar to what Hurricane Andrew did to Homestead in 1992.
The biggest danger for us will be winds (150mph/240kph sustained and 200mph/320kph wind gusts) and storm surge (15-20 feet or 4-6 meter), and since our house is in a flood zone, we will have to evacuate later today and stay in a strongly built hotel nearby.
Having survived six hurricanes already (Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma) and having dodged another two (Francis, Matthew) I feel cautiously optimistic, especially about our personal safety.
I will try to update you all the best I can (depending on whether we have power or not).
Thanks for all your kind wishes!
The Saker
The ocean might take the brunt of this storm.
If you plan on leaving to the west side, you are welcome to stay at my place ( Punta Gorda)
Saker, infelizmente, creio, ele irá direto para a Península, não vejo registros fiáveis sobre o Eixo de Rotação da Terra nessas estatísticas….
:-/
Translation – Mod:
Saker, unfortunately, I believe, he will go straight to the peninsula, I see no reliable records about the Earth’s axis of rotation in these statistics….
It looks like the Bahamas are being scrubbed down to bare rock right now. By Monday night you’ll know how you’ll fare, according to forecasts.
Best of luck (in addition to preparedness), Saker, stay safe!
May God keep you all safe Saker!
God help you “keep the feathers dry, Noble Bird”..! ;)
Now, seriously, I´ll pray for you and the yours there.
Kind regards.
I’m a crazy Californian vacationing in Hollywood, Florida “til Wednesday”. Beaches are beautiful and ocean is calm. Sure hope Uber is up and about if and when the city is evacuated!
(All the best to Saker.)
you might have to stay longer as a lot of airports (Orlando) will be closed
good luck!
The Saker
May God’s protection be with you and your family, and the rest who are in the storm’s path!
Saker, I was going to email you this but because of the storm, I will post it here. Removed – not appropriate for this post. Please email the Saker on his return. Mod.
Wow!
I, too, read category 5 this a.m.
Sustained winds of 160.
No joke.
I hope the evacuation hotel is strong and the company is good!
Katherine
https://www.space.com/hurricane-dorian-reaches-category-5-storm.html
Here’s another great satellite photo of Dorian and his eye..
Apparently the strongest storm on record!
Stay safe Saker! Prayers for you & your family and everyone else in the path of this monster.
You are in my prayers dear Saker. May God protect you and your family.
Good luck on dealing with the storm. I’ll miss your updates and opinions while you are likely busy. I’m beginning to get how disruptive and serious these things are, even if they miss your location. Huge uncertainty and it seems dumb not to prepare each time. I guess when I was younger, these things seemed a lot more like an adventure and were almost welcomed. I bought 2.5 acres on Pine Island (Bokeelia) a couple years back and I’m imagining what it would really be like to live there and worry about plants and animals and buildings. I would like more sunshine and space than we get here, but it’s not free of risk. Again good luck to you in dealing with this one – and other stuff too.
Most weather reporters on the mainstream media report wind speed as being the critical factor. Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) is far more important as is the NOAA SLUSH model which determines storm surge height.
Hurricane Dorian is also currently small with a high wind speed (183 mph), yielding a current Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of 17 terajoules (TJ) which corresponds to about 3.7 kilotons of TNT equivalent of energy per second. By comparison Hurricane Irma was large and had an Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of 110 terajoules (TJ) which corresponded to 24 kilotons of TNT equivalent of energy per second https://twitter.com/hwind
Even if the hurricane stays offshore the storm surge will still be very damaging as reported by:
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/hurricane-dorian-update-category-4-storm-landfall-latest-track-path-models-forecast-2019-09-01/
For more on the NOAA SLOSH model see:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/slosh.php
and the predicted storm surge by area:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/155815.shtml?inundation
According to the satellite wind map,
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic/loc=-78.200,27.519
the max wind speed in Dorian is about 90mph, a cat 1 hurricane, bordering on cat 2. If it were cat 5, it would have totally wiped out the Bahamas.
TPTB are all over Hurricane Dorian.
And I doubt they are about to let a good crisis go to waste.
С Богом!!!
Also, have you considered getting a ham radio license and a portable or mobile station? It might come in useful for times like this.
You can follow the progress of Dorian with:
https://radio.garden/listen/inspiration-107-9-fm/mXSdhFX6 , broadcasting from Nassau, Bahama’s, currently 30/40 miles from Freeport Grand Bahama
Calling geoweathering ‘experts’ here…
—> is this more due to EARTH weather or is this more like SPACE weather cycles?
***kindly pls move your reply to the cafe for long(er) post. Thanks :)
I’d be v.sad if it were unnaturally the dumb boys piss fight… how poetic!
pls be safe there…
By all means take the precautions that you deem necessary to protect yourself and your family, Saker, but at the same time you might remember how the similarly-hyped Florence fizzled out. Weather talking heads reported its continual downgrading on the Hurricane Richter Scale with long faces, And that the graphic artists of TV meteorology finger-paint terrifyng eyeballs in order to attract eyeballs.
Where is God when you need him, her, it?
Keep safe!
The truthful information media needs you.
Shelbouy
Where is God when you need him, her, it?
Keep safe!
The truthful information media needs you.
Shelbouy
According the this site: http://stateofthenation2012.com/?p=127339, this hurricane is geo engineered into a mega storm. If this is true, I don’t know… what an evil prospect !
Stay safe Saker!
My English comment will be ready Wednesday, the German Speaker (Incl. the Saker) can read about this Week here, https://mundanestagebuch.blogspot.com/2019/09/machtige-welle-am-himmel-und-vor-florida.html
Anyway, this is a really big one, like always when Jupiter is intermingled and now in Resonance with
Neptunes borderless waters, and the rulers of all Lands except rivers …
Saker,
As you know, I live very close to you, and I’m praying for God’s mercy to avert disaster. The current consensus (based on spaghetti models) is calling for the hurricane to bounce up the east coast without making landfall in FL or the US. Let’s hope that’s what happens.
I am in CA right now, and I’m glad you’re making the smart decision to find refuge on (I assume) higher ground. The danger from flooding is perhaps as great as the wind danger. Stay safe!
Here is 8 minutes of beauty so you get a break from the world around you mr Saker.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFO2SW-etHk&list=PL4R0RQw-MPauf_EjMeHTKu_ug_MZQ0uTO&index=8
Be safe!
In the future, see if you can run a business in Crimea!
Forget the Weather Channel -Here is the best hurricane reporter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_K5L-ezGq4Y