by Aram Mirzaei for The Saker Blog
It’s been over a month now since the Syrian Army launched it’s long awaited Idlib offensive. The Syrian Arab Army and the jihadist rebels of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham are involved in the deadliest battle of the month in northwestern Hama. What began as a successful month for the Syrian Army has since turned in a blood bath with all warring parties trading heavy offensives along the Hama-Idlib axis. This week alone has resulted in well over 100 casualties for the jihadists while the Syrian Army has suffered almost 40 casualties. It is quite noticeable that Ankara has a hand in this since Turkish made weapons have been found on several frontlines in the hands of these terrorists. On top of that, Ankara manages to yet again negotiate a short lived ceasefire which Moscow agreed to, yet as per usual, the dishonourable jihadists used this opportunity to regroup and rearm in preparation for their massive counter offensive.
It has to be said, Moscow keeps getting fooled for some reason to agree on these damned ceasefires, that keep prolonging the inevitable doom of the monsters occupying the Idlib province. This time Moscow, Damascus and Tehran have had a golden opportunity to finish the jihadists off as Washington seems rather uninterested in getting involved with this offensive. I say this because Washington has been unusually quiet this time around, save for some Sunday evening Trump tweet claiming that he was “hearing word” that Russia, Syria, and to a lesser extent, Iran, were indiscriminately bombing the Idlib province. Even the western media that usually gets all fired up about their beloved terrorists in Idlib have been relatively quiet, could it be that they are losing interest now that Washington has its hands full with a coup attempt in Caracas and building up for a full scale war in the Middle East?
Washington seems to have other things in mind as Bolton and Pompeo seem hell bent on starting wars with the Islamic Republic and Venezuela, while Europe seems too busy fumbling in the dark over the JCPOA.
This leaves the jihadists with few allies except for Ankara which I am convinced is playing a double side game with Moscow and Washington. The opportunists in Ankara have for long played both sides in Syria as they claim they are allied with Moscow and Tehran yet keep supporting terrorist forces against Damascus and her allies. It is deeply frustrating to hear Ankara strike a deal with Moscow over Syria’s survival and preservation only to hear the Turkish president or foreign minister the very next day claim that “the Assad regime has killed 1 million people”. At some point Moscow must force Ankara to stop with this insane approach and choose sides once and for all, or this war will continue for another decade as Ankara will only get bolder by the day.
Elsewhere, ISIS terrorists hiding in caves in eastern Homs are taking advantage of the massive Syrian Army build up near the Idlib-Hama axis to launch hit and run attacks and kidnapping operations on inexperienced garrison units near the Palmyra front. I really never could understand why Moscow and Damascus always allows a few of these terrorists to remain after every major operation they launch on their territories. It always comes to bite them back later on as these terrorists never seem to back down or capitulate anyways. Meanwhile, terrorist benefactor Israel has been active over Syrian skies once more after claiming that shells were fired into the occupies Golan Heights from the Syrian side. Not that I ever believed in what the Zionist state has ever claimed as an excuse for attacking Syria, but there has been no fighting in the Quneitra province for almost a full year now since the jihadist militants were expelled from the entire southern parts of the country last year. Of course the Zionist state doesn’t ever bother to provide any evidence for their claims so it can be concluded that the pretext was totally made up to cover their true intentions, to target any advanced weaponry Syria might possess. The attack targeted Syria’s strategic T4 airbase, known for being used by both Russian and Iranian military personnel. Israel very likely informed Russia before the attack, which is why they were able to avoid the latter at the T4 airbase.
Since the start of June, the Israeli military has conducted at least two attacks on Syrian military installations, resulting in the death of at least a half dozen soldiers. Fighting in Syria intensifies while Washington is targeting any oil shipments coming into Syria in its campaign to cripple Syria financially. Pressure on Tehran and Hezbollah is also intensifying as the threat of war still looms in the region with Washington and Tel Aviv’s continued posturing and Saudi Arabia’s pathetic false flag attacks in the Persian Gulf region which they as per usual try to blame on Iran.
It looks like it’s going to be a very hot summer this year for the Resistance Axis. It will take much effort and strategic planning to counter these foul plans hatched by the Zionist Empire.
It’s worth noting that the jihadists are suffering roughly 2-3x the number of casualties compared to the Syrian military, which makes sense since the jihadists do not have air support or overwhelming artillery power supporting them. It’s also worth noting that this is *not* a full-scale offensive on the behalf of the SAA, the intention is only to take a few towns here and there and secure the M5 highway, and the offensive itself is primarily in response to the jihadist’s violations of the ceasefire.
It’s going to take a long time for the SAA to completely re-take Idlib province. Another 1-2 years, perhaps. That said, the jihadists are bleeding out faster than the SAA and it is not improbable that they would collapse completely if the Syrians were to launch a full-scale offensive as opposed to a limited operation. The headline of this article is a bit misleading – the offensive hasn’t “stalled out” since it was a limited operation in the first place. The intention of the SAA is to re-take a town here, a town there at a time, as a response to ceasefire violations. Meanwhile, the jihadists are throwing themselves into meatgrinder after meatgrinder and taking casualties that are unsustainable. This will ultimately work in the favor of the Syrian military.
As for the Russian diplomacy efforts, I do agree that the ceasefires with the jihadists in Idlib are completely pointless and in this case, will only lead to more unnecessary deaths of Syrian soldiers and civilians. The Russians are pragmatic and endlessly forgiving, sometimes foolishly. That said, Russian diplomacy led to the bloodless surrender of hundreds of towns and cities in Syria and saved thousands of lives. So, they really can’t be criticized too much, as their prior efforts have been incredibly successful. On top of that, there is the constant threat of a chemical weapons-based false flag operation occurring. Viewed in this context, the SAA strategy of taking a town here, a town there, to prevent provoking an international response, makes sense.
Good comment all round.
What I don’t agree with Anonymous and Aram’s article is the opinion that the Russians are somehow “forgiving”, “foolish” or “Moscow is getting fooled” on the Idlib issue. Actually, I believe this is a rather naive view.
Idlib is a card being played between the Turks and the Russians. The Syrian government knows this very well and they are confined to play and operate within this card game. The Syrians cannot launch any kind of “all-out” attack on Idlib without Russia.
Russia wants to keep everyone happy (including Israel) while looking after its own interest in Syria, Turkey and the Middle-East. This includes S-400s weapons trading with the Turks, Turk-stream and everything Turkey related. Idlib is part of this game.
See recent article by Ollie Richardson which is pretty comprehensive on this issue:
/explaining-russias-position-on-idlib/
Russia wants to keep everyone happy,thats the problem,i never understood why they would want to keep the turks and Israel happy?this should be total war on those head hackers and those who back them,this could have ended a long time ago if the turks and Israelis had been hit hard,as it is more Syrians are going to die for no good reason.
If the Turks and Israelis were ‘hit hard’ it certainly would have ‘ended’ long ago. We can thank the Gods that it is Putin and Assad making the decisions, not wild risk-takers.
Russia has already won in Syria, the West is beaten there. Sure there are some provocations from Turkey, the Kurds and Israel, but its just provocations, it doesn’t change the situation for the West.
So having already won, the remaining irritations can just face the slow grind / the slow cauldron until they disappear. The more ceasefires the merrier, it won’t change the result for the West.
For Russia, A2/AD (Anti Access/Area Denial) is good enough. Russia has a history of making weapons which are good enough (cheap and effective), now Russia is implementing strategies which are good enough. The West has been prevented from taking over Syria – mission accomplished, no need for complications / drama further than that.
Of course Syria and Iran have objectives other than just seeing that the West does not take over Syria, objectives like the return of the Golan Heights for instance. But Syria and Iran just have to trust Russia’s strategy as it was Russia which prevented Syria from going the route of Libya and Iraq.
The West cannot last forever (debt burden, economic turmoil, political turmoil), while Russia has enough resources to stale mate the West wherever it likes for nearly forever. Once the West crashes, Israel and Saudi Arabia are irrelevant.
The West cannot last forever (debt burden, economic turmoil, political turmoil), while Russia has enough resources to stale mate the West wherever it likes for nearly forever. Once the West crashes, Israel and Saudi Arabia are irrelevant.
It has been said that an organism can not conceive of it’s own demise. Hence, the Russia/Syria/Iran/China are dealing with reality and the West is dealing with a different “reality” that is a delusion.
The problem is that if the West can extract its jihadist butchers from Idlib, they will simply be re-assigned to new regions, primarily, I would imagine, to attack China, Russia and Central Asia. The Uighurs, in particular, have already gained a reputation for extreme viciousness, and Thanatopia would just love to unleash them on Xinjiang.
It looks like a Colour Revolution in Kazakhstan.
It’s obvious that the Syrians and Russians have decided to let Idlib be a meat grinder from the inside outwards. All they have to do is a little squeezing.
Removed. Send again with a clearer message. Mod.
Of course Ankara is playing a ‘double game’…
The thing is that Ankara does have support from the west on Idlib…at least from the western power structures that implemented and are continuing to prosecute this terrorist proxy war…these are very dangerous people…as evidenced by the downing of the Russian spy plane last September [after it had carried out a two hour surveillance flight over Idlib]…by an air to air missile fired from one of two British jets in the air that night… [as I have explained elsewhere]…
That downing of the Ilyushin came just hours after Erdogan hastily flew to Sochi and persuaded Putin to put the Idlib invasion on hold…and set up this ersatz ‘demilitarized’ zone…which has been anything but, under Turkey’s supervision…the fox guarding the henhouse…
The point is there is a lot more going on behind the scenes than is made public…Idlib remains a Red Line for the western power structures…and this is one issue on which Turkey is on the same page…
The point is that Russia would not have agreed to this latest ‘ceasefire’ unless it had a very good reason to be cautious…Russia wants to liberate Idlib and it will…but there is reason to tread cautiously…fools rush in where angels fear to tread…
For there to be a resistance (read proxy terrorists) there must be warm bodies willing to fight and die, there must be foreign investment, and there must be popular support.
It appears to my untrained eye that the popular support is long gone, the foreign investment is rather strained at the moment and is unable to decide whether to continue this losing game, which makes Hegemon and Hegemon Junior (KSA) look stupid, try again with Venezuela, which made Hegemon look weak, or to pick a fight with Iran, which would confirm that Hegemon, Junior, and the Zionist Experiment are all insane.
Thus Russia, Iran and Syria take their time and let the three stooges continue to amuse/horrify the rest of us.
There does not seem to be an end to greater fools, thus the battles and wars continues, some including I must wonder if even the gods dont know what they are doing, or is was the plan after all? Inquiring minds will never know.
Erdogan is blackmailing Putin using the S-400 current and potential buys as the linchpin for his actions in Syria. Putin is walking a tightrope there instead of seeing clearly and reacting resolutely to Erdogan’s treachery. Iran and Hezbollah are doing their part in aiding Assad. Russia should do the same.
completely agree to Bill, Russia must take apart business weapons and finally crush Idlib, resolutely, strongly and very fast, in a way to make the world understand that unipolar world and adventurers as Erdugan finally stand down and change their behavior. which is inammissible, at the end of the game, take all the criminals and put on trial with possibility to be hang for their horrible crimes
Usually think this writer is relevant, but once in a while he fails. What I’m alluding to has already been pointed out by previous comment writers, so I wont repeat what they wrote.
The US helped put the Muslim Brotherhood in power in Turkey, and it has entrenched itself. This was the creation of the Britain in Egypt and was used to divide India. They are not an ideological party as such, their religion is for show, they are the old Islamic ruling class whose realpolitik is their world view.
Bearing this in mind, that the Muslim Brotherhood was instrumental in invading Syria (mercenaries came from Libya, to Alexandria, then Turkey of which the backdoor to Syria is presently the active front of today; therein lies the reason for Turkey’s support for these mercenaries, as leverage against the Kurds, and Syria. Realpolitik.
War with Turkey would unite it under the Muslim Brotherhood leadership, would throw it back into NATO. Rather at the cost of lives and suffering Turkey has to be given its head, severe its NATO links, outmaneuver the US, stand in splendid isolation, have its proxies destroyed in situ.
What happens to Turkey does has to be left in Turkish hands; a fundamental principle of a multi-polar world. what persuades it to fundamentally change is economic; is the one-belt, is China. This is the only place the Brotherhood can go; but they are are far too corrupt and inept to do anything but create contradictions within Turkey.
That is where the Muslim Brotherhood, the cats-paw of greater powers, loses all its power, it will realpolitik itself to death.
Given the shaky state of the Turkish economy and the risk that it faces of a serious crisis it may be that Russia is just biding time until the breakdown.
Look at a map and see that the Bosporus separates the Black Sea from the Mediterranean.
It is in Russia’s interest for Turkey to be stable and friendly.