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Saker Message:
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Really interesting (and different) post up today from someone supposedly in Turkey giving a local view of events, putting things together.
Jim unfortunately buried it under/after a long rant against anyone not seeing things his way, so scroll down a ways.
It’s quite long & detailed, too, but some tidbits:
The government in Ankara has recently claimed that PKK opposition in Cizre and other towns has been snuffed sufficiently as to allow a withdrawal of army personnel. There was every reason to expect such forces could be speedily reassigned to the pending plan for a pincer action against the part of the Syrian northeastern border with Turkey and Iraq where PKK militants freely enter and resupply through.
The second bit of bad news came from the opposite direction. The Russian’s inability to project their air superiority into eastern Syria and northern Iraq had been a mainstay of the pending plan’s attractiveness to all involved. Then news started filtering through about the presence of latest generation Russian AWACs appearing in those far away skies. It was only a matter of days before it was realized that they were flying missions out of bases in South Ossetia, and that their capabilities included signal fixing which allowed for directed missions against ground targets that needed to be eliminated. Certainly the planners in Ankara had to be aware of the already successful strikes over Syria by missles directed from Caspian Sea-based Russian naval units. But the final nail in the coffin came with reports that Russian aerial bomber assets were being positioned to fly missions out of Iranian air bases.
http://82.221.129.208/ifyouareinamericayouprobablycantseethism1.html
(continued)
… southeastern border regions
in such turmoil as to serious undercut the
logistical strength and stability needed for a
foreign excursion by it’s own military. The
Second Army in other words, can not afford to
leave home!
And now, finally, we come to the last and most
important piece of the puzzle. Last week there
was a series of public statements from the
mouths of several of the members of the
governing AK Party in Turkey who were central
in it’s start up and subsequent success. These
old guard insiders purged by the Erdogan faction
have for the first time come out publicly with
expressions of dissent to the demagogic rule of
the President and his extremist followers. As
respected and well placed party heavyweights
these persons represent an internal opposition
to Erdogan’s reign of error which cannot be
dismissed or suppressed as being ‘coupist’ or
‘parallel’ – a huge shift in political dynamics.
What this means in real terms is that there is a
way opening up for the Armed Forces to focus
on ending the slide towards suicidal foreign
adventures and policy decisions that have
effectively turned Turkey into a potential powder
keg for a world war. Up until now, any move
made by the military towards confronting or
rebuking the Ankara regime would have resulted
in speedy accusations of the kind of coup
mongering for which there is zero support from
any element of Turkish society. It would be a
perfect storm by which the regime could
decimate all remaining opposition in the military
and civil society in short order. But the existence
of a legitimate and well-placed internal
opposition within the governing party itself
changes everything. Erdogan’s new public
opponents represent the sidelined – but not
inconsiderable – moderate element of the AK
Party, as well as a potentially huge groundswell
of public supporters from outside it’s ranks,
hopeful of reconciliation within and without the
country before sectarian bloodshed starts to
flow.
As such, they offer the Armed Forces a means
of confronting the Ankara regime in such a way
as to be the voice of ‘the popular will’ – a status
which the neo-Ottoman’s have jealously
guarded for themselves to date! In light of the
many previous coups by the military against the
civil government in Turkey – the most recent of
which was against the predecessor ‘moderate
Islamist’ party to the AKP in the late 90’s, there
is no popular support for an army led
government at all. Even a gambit like a
‘temporary’ military government committed to
elections would fail to gain public support. But
turning down further adventurism in Syria, and
turning out the religious extremists of the
Erdogan faction of the AKP becomes an
extremely plausible route – IF it can involve
turning over power immediately to a legitimate
continuance of executive authority in the form
of moderate political figures whose popular
support cuts across party lines in potentially
creating an emergency government of national
consensus.
Because – keep this in mind – Turkey has indeed
entered an emergency situation, in which it’s
chances of staying whole, territorially, and out of
a total civil war scenario such as Syria has been
plunged into, are considerably less than 50-50.
Fatal foreign policy missteps have created an
economic tail spin not even begun to make itself
felt. Add to this the drying up of Saudi largess,
and other illegitimate income streams and you
have a sea of domestic troubles to go with self-
created foreign ones! Stepping back from the
brink will require that the true nationalists from
the political sphere take a stand of moral
courage which will set the stage for the true
nationalists within the military to fulfill their duty
to the nation. By handing it’s sovereignty back
to it’s people, and away from those whose
driving personal ambitions and sectarianism
have taken the country to the edge of violent
dissolution. What will drive things towards this
conclusion is the increasing awareness within the
armed forces of just who, and by how much,
has profited from the hidden deals between
terrorists, terror states, and their political
proxies. Unlike the hapless Turkish public, the
military is not cut off from all news of
malfeasance and corruption on the part of the
leadership in Ankara. Legitimacy is a tricky thing
to hang on to, once it starts to slip from one’s
grasp. Today things are, though still very
dangerous, therefore looking considerably less
bleak than they have for the past several
months.
p.s. Today the Ankara regime announced that
negotiations between the Turks and Tel Aviv had
been ‘held up’ by the Israeli side’s wish to see
Erdogan gone before an agreement. You can be
sure that this smoke and mirrors is designed to
hide just the opposite truth! The ground is
creaking under the regime’s feet, as more and
more AKP faithful find it incomprehensible how
Ankara has run to Tel Aviv for help and
protection! The limits of credulity have finally
been breached inside the Islamist fantasy Caliphate.
eimar,
was the first post here yours? I.e.(anonymous, feb 20, 8:26).
either way it was an excellent post, it made me laugh. the excerpts where you provided examples of the Paradox turkey faces were great. certainly better than the mundane and obvious tactical analysis by South Front in this video.
btw south front the Kurds were fairly effective and focussed against the overrated light infantry known as ISIL, way before direct Russian intervention: it’s a little too much to give Russia credit for organizing the Kurdish forces.
The desperation – terrorists to ask the UN to protect them from Russia! – because they are losing…….
http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/02/dwn-al-nusra-asks-un-to-protect-them.html
@ Saker
Any chance of including South Fronts written report as well as the video on your site?
The included youtube link only links to the video whereas South Front have accompanying written reports at their site.
http://southfront.org/russia-defense-report-russian-military-grouping-in-syria/
PeterAU
Great idea.
An answer to the question about why turkey is threatening to invade now, rather than before when Syria was weaker is that turkey doesn’t intend to carry out their threats and that these are psywar bluffs.
Totally agree.
South Front has a new piece up by a Russian commentator offering a lighter perspective on Turkey’s actions. They seem focused largely on the Kurds, and not really the Syrians, and certainly not the Russians. The situation seems not as dire as we might tend to assume. I take from it that the Kurds, now in coordination with Russia’s command, are themselves strong enough to throw Turkey into crisis. They themselves can throw an entire large nation into turmoil.
Excellent article, translated by J Hawk: The Turk is not as terrible as he is painted
Another reason could be that the Kurdish YPG appear to have changed sides … they are now fighting with the SAA against the Western-backed terrorists. Which could mean that Turkey sees the Kurdish chicken coming home to roost. An unpleasant surprise, to say the least …
Very impressive planning and staging. Seems like Russia knew for a long time this was coming.
My question is whether Russia is also planning to fix its internal financial affairs. Success on the battle field should somehow transfer to success on the financial field.
The problem is that Russians have been westernized to some degree and probably softened up with a more comfortable lifestyle; and because of TV, internet, phones and other handy gadgets will take the money like Greece did long ago, and find out later they’ve been trapped in a cauldron.
Too bad, but money with interest attached has a backside that few can see in their sacred pilgrimage to the economic growth temple. On a previous thread I read that China is investing in Africa without entangling the people there in debt. The West is treating this development like the plague as might be expected.
Russia has got to beat the West with war planning intelligence and when it does I hope it can get its financial house in order with an even higher level of intelligence. If it does not I’m afraid it will be a case of winning the battle and losing the war.
I appreciate the updates since this is where we are now. Survive now and thrive hereafter.
OT.
This is really hilarious!
“The Ukrainian Parliament will consider a bill filed last summer on the initiative of deputies of the Radical party Oksana Korchinsky and Andrey Lozovoy who offer to rename Russia to Muscovy.
“The authors of the project remind, that the Russian Federation bears its name illegally, and the words «Rus» and «Russia» originally meant the territory which is today Ukraine.”
Renaming your own country is one thing; renaming somebody else’s is another matter entirely. Exactly how delusional are these people? Do they think anyone else in the world is going to play along with this? Absurd!
(Special thanks to Dmytriy Kovalevich. I got this story off his Facebook feed.)
Yes,considering less than half of ancient Rus is inside Ukraine’s borders.That makes it even more ironic. A bit over half of the old nation is inside Russia’s borders. And the rest is in Ukraine,Belarus,and Poland. But really that all comes back to what I’ve said before. Ukrainian “nationalism” is obsessed with Russia-hate. It can’t exist without hating Russia. It was founded on that hate. It grew on that hate. And it only exists today off of that hate.For people that “say” they are “Europeans” and want nothing to do with “Russia”. They spend all their waking hours on that obsession. Their language,their customs,their religion,their music,and their history.Is all one common “Russian”. Their authors,musicians,painters,actors,all are in common with “Russia” and the reverse is true as well. At the “drop of a hat” they could move between the two nations,calling each one home. That isn’t even just a thought,but clearly true. Millions of people have moved from one to the other for hundreds of years. And a huge number of people have relatives on either side of the border.Which even more shows the utter lunacy of the Ukrainian “nationalists” hatred of Russia.
Aksenov said that Crimeans are ready to rename Ukraine
The head of the Crimean sneer on a proposal of the Ukrainian politicians to stop calling “Russia” and “Rus” modern territory of the Russian Federation. Thus, according to him, Crimeans are ready to rename Ukraine to Russia.
http://ria.ru/society/20160220/1377676877.html
Why not call Ukraine Nazistan?
That’s a good one. But I prefer the one used already, “Banderatan”.
Borderlanders, borderliners. :)
But in fact, this is so over the top that it deconstructs and leads ad absurdum the whole notion of how the Ukraine is trying to construct their national identity, i.e. the difference to Russia. They are defining themselves ex negativo, and now they want to become the negative themselves. So it all collapses, logically.
Which led me to believe that this was a very cunning initiative inspired by Moscow. :)
No one seems to know where this all leads. Least of all the population of the US. I can guarantee that you would see almost nothing of this reported on in the US. Not even reported on favorably to the US side. But just not reported on at all.I spend around 7 hours in a row watching the cable news shows on the three main MSM networks in the US yesterday (I had to I was away from the computer with a friend at a hospital and flipping channels).And during that full 7 hours,at least 95% of the coverage (I really would say almost fully 100%) devoted to the US presidential primaries. Interviewing people by the score. Spinning stores right and left,for all that time. And I don’t doubt that most of the “rest” of the day was mostly the same. Not a single word of “Russia,Syria,Turkey,Iran,Israel,Middle East,Iraq,ISIS ” in today’s context was uttered. Some talk was done on one or more candidates not supporting Bush’s Iraq War. But nothing on today’s problems there.No mention on Ukraine,NATO,the EU,”zilch” on anything outside the US. The US population is almost totally in the dark about this week’s happenings in the World. And the little,if any ,shown during the hours I wasn’t watching (and that was between 1 to 8 PM I watched).It was sure to be spun to support the US “position”.If the US population woke up to a Turkish-Russian war starting. They would have no way of knowing the context to it. And when the MSM started saying it was Russia “attacking” the poor Turks defending themselves.No one would be able to know different.The censorship by “omission” in the US would astound even the nazi propagandists. Certainly for those true doubters there are “alternate” news sites (if you search for them). But most people get their “news” from the MSM. And are kept in ignorance by them. I even heard people talk about one of “Hillary’s strengths” was her “knowledge of”,and “experience with”,dealing with foreign affairs (I wanted to scream and break the TV over that). No one commented,and asked if being “horrible” at that was really a plus for her (oh,how I wished someone would have).Everyone just shook their heads “yes” and moved to something else.
» Not a single word of “Russia,Syria,Turkey,Iran,Israel,Middle East,Iraq,ISIS ” in today’s context was uttered. «
Yes. Don’t know for the TV, but yesterday, I followed someone’s link to a Boston Globe article (actually a good one: The media are misleading the public on Syria) and then after reading clicked on the main page and there was nothing at all about Syria. Nothing at all.
I recommend the John Batchelor Show, which is kind of MSM, but probably for the more educated. They have lots of science (much of which is hoaxes such as moon landings and various kookular devices, so actually science fiction to bolster the Usanian ego) but also lots of geopolitics where they spin their mendacious narrative around Uncle Sam’s aggression around the globe, mostly around the Middle East and the South China Sea.
You can stream their stuff or directly download it to your phone or computer:
http://johnbatchelorshow.com/podcasts/download
By the way, yesterday JB referred to Erdogan as “Turkey’s absolute dictator”. :)
War’s Eve, Turkey is the Sick Man of Europe. Michael Vlahos, Johns Hopkins
http://serve.castfire.com/audio/2684271/2684271_2016-02-20-000611.32k.mp3 (~10 MB)
http://serve.castfire.com/audio/2684271/2684271_2016-02-20-000611.96k.mp3 (~29 MB)
Thank you ,yes,I’ve listened to the show before. But that is the point.While you and I and a few others (OK maybe even into the thousands or hundreds of thousands.Actively seek out alternate views,and the truth. The millions,many millions,of regular people don’t. They just buy in to the MSM propaganda. That’s the tragedy of all this. The MSM has brainwashed people through omission as well as propaganda. It they don’t report on it “it didn’t happen”.
The Truth about the Conflict with Russia.
https://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2015/03/17/the-truth-about-the-conflict-with-russia/
For the first time in 5 years of war,MSM France 2 tv network provides in primetime a quiet good and almost neutral report on Syria(90 min).In french but will be translated soon.
Just check the pics of the ”moderate” rebels who are almost worse than ISIS.
18+
http://fr.sputniknews.com/international/20160220/1021965172/syrie-grand-aveuglement-oeil-planete-documentaire.html
They are both the same. Different leaders split up on a disagreement in a turf war. I don’t think we distinguish al capons Nevada operations from his Chicago ones because their commanders are different although at one time they both worked for the same. It could be one of them did not like taking orders from the US. But both get funds from pretty much the same groups.
Such a blatant fight between good and evil…
How did Russia take the US by surprise in Syria? The hardware they moved into Syria was known. The technical capabilities of the hardware was known. The cruise missile capabilities from the Caspian was unknown but has contributed very little to Russian/Syrian defence.
What was unknown was the capabilities of the Russian support staff. The crew that keep this very small contingent of aircraft in the air day in day out. Pilots can be hot seated, but keeping the planes in the air is the hard part.Very short turnaround times between sorties and no crashed aircraft due to mechanical failures.
But the main reason for Russian success? The ability of the Russian federations (Putins?) ability to recognize both short comings and abilities of local Syrian forces and to be able to compliment their abilities. Although I believe US trained and advised forces in Iraq were trained to fail, but I don’t think US has ever succeeded in training a force from a different culture as they ignore local customs and knowledge and in general seem to hold local customs in contempt.
When I moved from a semi remote area of Australia to a remoter area, the locals (whites) told me how I should treat blackfella’s. This didn’t sit well with me and when I finally got some locals to come and work for me (local aboriginal people had a lot of distrust of whiteys) I treated them and paid them the same as anyone else of the same capabilities.
A fair bit more to the story (I was in the air and these guys were used to horseback work and tracking ect) – but to cut to the chase, the middle aged bloke that was working for me (D), when we first met told me straight he was an alcoholic. We would have our couple of beers each night in the camp and he would never ask for more. After we had finished the first job it was time to go to town for more supplies and a bit of R & R
The annual local races were on and all were going to town for a long weekend. Back at the community the elders told me I would never get D back from town. About ten o’clock Monday I rock up at the servo to fuel up the truck before loading up with supplies. Before I have have the fuel cap off, D is standing there beside me asking when we are heading out. This is the bloke that even the elders at the aboriginal community told me I never get out of town once he got on the booze.
He was well pickled at 10am. He was worried I would leave town without him and it took a bit to convince him I still had to load up with supplies before leaving town. He told me he would go anywhere with me as I treated him as a man, not a blackfella.This is the man the elders at the aboriginal community told me I would never get him out of town once he got on the booze.
Treat me like a man not a blackfella… I guess I was/am naive but a simple respect for others culture although not my own and a respect for other abilities…. I will go anywhere with you because you treat me like a man..
Me, I’m just an ordinary shitkicker with my only claim to fame is surviving 5000 hrs of low level work in a rotary wing ultrulight.
Russia’s secret weapon in Syria that took the US by surprise? The Russian Federation of Putin treats Syria like a man.
Secrets of Russian success in Syria? (apart from Putin and Lavrov’s diplomatic activities) Ground crew and treating Syria like a man.
Well said Peter.
Cheers mate
Well that works sometimes, other times it just shows weakness. It really depends on the person, if they have the motivation. Some want to make better of themselves through their own effort, while others want to do it by taking advantage of others. In Iraq we can clearly see this and in Afghanistan as well. Syria is different since the people who are left are motivated and have seen Libya and Iraq. religion does not matter to them. Their way of life and security matters a lot more. Now Korea and japan were 2 places where they took help when offered. But that was because they wanted to put the past behind and make something of themselves. I think the Japanese wanted to show they were not all fanatics in killing so they worked very long hours. It took the Koreans a while watching this to change and then the Chinese. From what I have seen, parents are a huge influence, I seen many push their kids through all kinds of hell, to be more than they could ever be, and many kids follow this.. In the west parents are prevented from pressuring their kids this way so only the most motivated work hard and the others if they make something of themselves is through guile only. It is not unheard of, but it is rare for a kid without someone pushing them from behind to overcome life’s challenges. This guy must have wanted to change like we want to quit smoking and we have to be forced to do it. some can while others cant. But all of us can if we are forced to do it.
IS is falling over like twigs once nato logistics and ECM counter measures are blocked.. Guess those satellite pictures and nato planning DID help after all… How they could find the weakest and least defended positions to break through and surround government forces and destroy them from behind was an amazing feat using real time satellite imaging and tactical coordination and not by god’s grace as was said..
Looks like to please the US YPG is moving south to DeirezZor for now..
DeirezZor provinces – Situation Map – 20 Feb 2016] #Shaddadi has been liberated by the SDF from ISIS, creating another IS cauldron.
https://twitter.com/vitalyvoronenko/status/701106433878835201
YPG/SDF Forces are quickly approaching DeirEzzor Governorate after capturing Al-Shadadi from ISIS/Daesh Syria
https://twitter.com/islamicworldupd/status/701350865010040832
Awesome Footage: #SDF hunt #ISIS VBIEDS in #Shahadi Region #Hasakah.
https://twitter.com/Nidalgazaui/status/701337940904042497
Hope they have a lot of goats.. The goats can use him.
SDF captured injured Abu Khatab al-Kazakhi, IS-emir from Kazakhstan, ruled over Shadadi https://twitter.com/vvanwilgenburg/status/701301827258736640
Same place A10’s were helping YPG to take the dam. Maybe turkey sneaked in one…
Report also says that unknown aircraft was freely flying over Tishrin area for 30 mins before attacking #YPG pos. w cluster bombs. #Syria
YPG General Command: A unknown military aircraft has attacked our positions in #Syria. https://t.co/P97xxgLqRA
MODERATES” #Aleppo | 200 #FSA militants & their families have defected from Mare’ and have joined #IS in the… http://fb.me/204wTOOql
SyrianArmy restores 31 villages in eastern countryside of Aleppo
IRGC is taking the lead in capturing over 30 villages after IS was cut off.
Updated MAP: Syrian army tightens the noose on ISIS terrorists trapped in East #Aleppo
https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/status/701323933602156544
Russia to stop cooperating with the #US in #Afghanistan! | Pajhwok Afghan News
Russia MoD arrives in Tehran
Rapid #SAA TigerForces SyrianArmy advance’ proves IS Daesh evacuated East Aleppo pocket to avoid siege.
https://twitter.com/MikhailTolstyk/status/701352547424931840
This was a very informative video.
Engdahl’s (lucid, in my opinion) interpretation of Washington’s Machiavellian Game in Syria reiterated by Sputnik News:
Daesh Terrorists: A Multifunction Tool in Hands of Ankara, Riyadh, NATO
The Art of War: Will Russia Outplay Washington’s Cunning Geostrategists?
Engdahl published an update with some more detail today:
Mr President, Sir, Are You About to Blow Up the Middle East?
It is interesting to read. Note the sociological analysis carried out by the Anglozionist terrorists.
It is safe to assume a similar scenario or script exists for the Ukraine.
They are few and far in-between but the entire world is waking up to the western propaganda machines. It will never be the same ever again. Even support at home is small now, and only the laziest still bother believing the lies. But since it is ingrained into society itself it is a huge task to inform people on what is really happening around the world and what sort of mischief their governments are upto.
Against a tidal wave of commentary in the Western media about ‘the Assad regime’ and its battle against ‘moderate rebels’, Oborne shocked readers by openly reporting that during his travels, “again and again I was asked: why is Britain supporting the terrorists?”
”When I returned to London,” the journalist wrote, “I read in the newspapers that this turn of events [in Aleppo] was regarded as a calamity. Of course, it does depend on your point of view. Government-held Aleppo was under siege from jihadi forces until last year. That was never reported. Now the areas of Aleppo held by the rebels are coming under siege. That is reported in the western press as a catastrophe, and has brought a concerned response from the British Foreign Secretary.”
The teacher told me that in her home town she was made to dress entirely in black. She said simply: ‘They will kill me if I show any flesh.’
She was forced to live indoors, except when being ordered into the public square to witness the frequent beheadings and crucifixions.
Intriguingly, she told me the foreigner fighters who controlled her area included French, British, Egyptians, Afghans and Americans — ‘very blond Americans and black ones’.
Inside the city of the damned: PETER OBORNE sends a devastating dispatch from the war-torn Syrian city of Aleppo as a human tide flees in terror for Europe
•Aleppo was one of Middle East’s most beautiful cities only four years ago
•Now, almost everything has been destroyed by they never ending civil war
•The fighting between Syrian regime, rebels, ISIS has forced millions to flee
•One man told of how his business was destroyed by the al-Nusra Islamists
•Tens of thousands amassed on Turkey’s borders, hoping to enter Europe
•PETER OBORNE visited the once famous Baron’s Hotel in besieged Aleppo
•For more of the latest from war-torn Syria visit http://www.dailymail.co.uk/syria
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3436456/Inside-city-damned-human-tide-flees-Aleppo-Europe-PETER-OBORNE-sends-devastating-dispatch-war-torn-Syrian-city.html
The problem with the reporter Oborne in the Daily Fail, is that he is writing according to an agenda, not the truth. Read his article from yesterday on camoron, and you should soon be able to read what BS he writes, e.g.: ‘Until now, he [camoron] has been seen as a trustworthy politician’ & ‘the Prime Minister could show that he was acting consistently with the Eurosceptic beliefs which he has advocated all of his political life.’ The same person who wants to be in the EU!!!
Anybody writing such drivel now, after nearly 6 years of camoron’s lies and broken pledges, should be trashed and then ignored.
Erdagon is “mouthing” off again. And threatening Syria and anyone that gets in his way anywhere in the World (Russia?). Time is rapidly moving to where the hyena must be silenced. The “mouse that roared” needs to be eliminated before he destroys his own nation. Putin needs to play the roll of Henry II,and say to the FSB “Who will rid me of this troublesome tyrant?”.
https://www.rt.com/news/333179-erdogan-terror-operations-syria/
A “must read” … yes, western MSM – but just because of that… The Washington Post, yesterday, 20 February 2016, Turkey’s increasingly desperate predicament poses real dangers:
ISTANBUL — Turkey is confronting what amounts to a strategic nightmare as bombs explode in its cities, its enemies encroach on its borders and its allies seemingly snub its demands.
As recently as four years ago, Turkey appeared poised to become one of the biggest winners of the Arab Spring, an ascendant power hailed by the West as a model and embraced by a region seeking new patrons and new forms of governance.
All that has evaporated since the failure of the Arab revolts, shifts in the geopolitical landscape and the trajectory of the Syrian war.
Russia, Turkey’s oldest and nearest rival, is expanding its presence around Turkey’s borders — in Syria to the south, in Crimea and Ukraine to the north, and in Armenia to the east. On Saturday, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced the deployment of a new batch of fighter jets and combat helicopters to an air base outside the Armenian capital, Yerevan, 25 miles from the Turkish border.
…
“Erdogan has mismanaged foreign policy because of hubris,”
…
the posture in Ankara is very strange and could lead to surprises
…
“For Turkey,” … “there is no good scenario from now on.”
And see the rest… https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/turkeys-increasingly-desperate-predicament-poses-real-dangers/2016/02/20/a3374030-d593-11e5-a65b-587e721fb231_story.htm
While pieces seem realistic. There are parts that are as crazy as ever. They say,”Turkey is confronting what amounts to a strategic nightmare as bombs explode in its cities, its enemies encroach on its borders and its allies seemingly snub its demands.” Without saying “bombs explode in its cities” because of Turkey’s own actions. No bombs were going off there until the Turkish regime declared war on their minority citizens. And as for “its enemies encroach on its borders”,what does that mean. The Syrians are only Turkey’s enemies because the Turks made them enemies.Before Turkey started to fund,arm,and train terrorists to attack Syria ,they were friendly. Assad and Erdagon had no problems.The problems are solely Turkey’s doing. As for Russia,Putin “bent over backwards” to befriend Turkey. Until Erdagon stabbed Russia in the back.As for Turkey’s “allies”. They see Erdagon trying to involve them in a World War,and want no part of that.The newspaper is being very “dishonest with the way they report that story.
maybe why… but then again all MSM western outlets only talk about barrel bombs and defenseless al Ciada going hungry.. WP had some great reports neat the Iraq war.. But I think because of their resistance they were fired. None of the other reporters raised an eyebrow even though the Iraqi tanks on the Saudi border and throwing babies out of incubators were widely known by then. Now they all blatantly lie including the Pentagon. Who said the US has not operated in the region this year.. But the Russians said they bombed 9 locations..
I believe the Russians, because, the US also bombed their own terrorists who complained about it and the US also bombed idlib which is closer to the Russian base (???####???).. <- lost me there as even the Russians don't bomb there.. And then call for not bombing al ciada assets.. And just 50km from there the A10's helped the YPG take the dam in jan near the Syrian air base that was liberated last nov.. But none of these show up in the US report of their bombing missions in Syria and Iraq..
Is the US bombing YPG now? someone did bomb them today near that other Syrian air base near iraq
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I wonder how can you have peace talks when you have bombings in Hama and Damascus almost every day ? which “moderats” can you trust in such cases ?
Israel expects a stream of Syrian refugees at its border.
http://www.debka.com/article/25248/Russia-air-strikes-seal-Jebel-Druze-against-attack-and-refugees
Israel is angry at Russia for allowing Hezbollah near its border (in Daraa) against previous promises.
Jordan is angry too for the same reason.
Debka claims that Sheikh Maskin was captured by a Syrian unit under command of Russian officers.
http://www.debka.com/article/25191/Russians-let-Hizballah-into-Daraa-breaking-their-promise-to-Israel
Russia bombing at 6 km of the border and attacking rebels close to the border in order to prevent them from fleeing to Israel.
Netanjahu sending diplomat to Moscow.
http://www.debka.com/article/25236/Special-Israeli-emissary-to-Moscow-over-Russian-Syria-air-strikes-near-border
Iran asking Russia to rebuild its army for 14 bln dollars
http://www.debka.com/article/25246/Iran-to-Russia-Take-14bn-and-build-us-a-modern-army
It is Debka and may contain Israeli propaganda. But interesting none the less.
It isn’t “the Israel/Syria” border, but the Israeli occupied Golan/Syria border. But then, it is Debka, and may contain Israeli propaganda, as you point out!
It’s like Saigon all over again.
TEHRAN (FNA)- Informed sources disclosed that a US-made helicopter has taken several senior ISIL leaders out of Anbar province in Western Iraq to an unknown location.
“A US chopper landed in a farm near the main road linking al-Saqlaviyeh to Fallujah in Anbar province and took off after one hour with ISIL leaders on board,” the Arabic-language Sama Baghdad news website quoted informed Iraqi sources in Fallujah city as saying on Sunday.
The sources noted that several ISIL leaders had gathered in Fallujah farm as if they had been informed of the helicopter’s imminent landing in the farm.
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13941202000537
Look at the number of people gathered around twin suicide bombings.. The area should have been clear of everyone except rescue workers. And you have a whole bunch of idiot soldiers and civilians standing around taking selfies.
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/701415902563028992
Even more idiots standing around another bombing.
Syria #Homs Another Terrorist Attack Strikes #Zahra Neighborhood. A number of Dead/Injured Civilians reported.
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/701319088115683328
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/701314105496436736
The ultimate bunch of morons!Cant blame the Syrians as this is the spectacle everywhere in the world. Oh boy excitement, lets go see what’s happening. Hence double tapping works.. Most civilians have NO COMMON SENSE.. In the animal kingdom, they run from danger.. Many humans on the other hand run towards it..
https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/701311240602255360
Knew the YPG had to be more cautious about leaving rats inside. Counter offensive took large number of YPG fighters hostage and paraded them in cages.
ISIS cuts the only government supply line to Aleppo http://bit.ly/217X9qP Syria
IS was also able to cut government supply lines while everyone was watching them lose everywhere else.
https://twitter.com/TheArabSource/status/701578358069440513
Three weeks of fighting in northern Syria, mapped by @miladvisor, animated by @MahmoudAyad1984 https://t.co/2omYd7OvfR
https://twitter.com/p_zalewski/status/701514508720799745
The Chechens have run off to Turkey here..
GIF: Last week’s developments in Latakia province, Thx @A7_Mirza
https://twitter.com/MahmoudAyad1984/status/701548350018027520
Animated GIF: The liberation of #Lattakia province, #Syria, oct. 2015-today, thanks 2, @miladvisor
https://t.co/2kA3CdvTMn
Military Situation in #Syria February 13, 2016
HD : https://t.co/HKFK5J1QB1
This article clearly shows a foreign based military operation into another country but they call it moderate rebels.Americans have been so brain washed and dumbed down that a military incursion is how political change takes place in other countries and is routine. And providing help to the legal government is considered a hindrance. Then they let out some loud ones from all those burritos they gulp down in the boiler rooms.. satisfied for a job well done and causing misery and hardships to millions and killing untold number of people. I sincerely hope phil don’t witness another tea party this time with explosives.
Efforts to keep Russian air power at bay were made solely through diplomatic channels. Jordan, which entered into an intelligence-sharing agreement with Russia in October, believed it had struck a deal whereby Moscow would not to target western-backed factions and would, instead, coordinate with Amman in hitting hardline Islamic factions.
As the fighting raged, rebels said their international backers in Amman’s Military Operations Command (MOC) repeatedly exhorted them to hold on to the town.
“The MOC was telling us how important it was for us to keep Sheikh Miskeen, they kept telling us ‘hold on, don’t give up’,” said a leading rebel commander, describing an increasingly desperate battle for the town.
Whoever controls Sheikh Miskeen controls the main highway and, therefore, controls a main path for weapons and troops in the southern region. The rebels had hoped to use the town as a means of choking off the regime units still holding on in Deraa, and to link up with rebels on the outskirts of Damascus. Now, rebel positions across the south will be more exposed to attack.
Russian air strikes were monitored in detail by the MOC and, when it became clear that they were turning the tide in the regime’s favour, Jordan’s top military officer was dispatched to Moscow.
Gen Mashal Mohammad Al Zabin, chairman of joint chiefs of staff, flew to Russia on January 27, the day after regime forces made a rapid advance in Sheikh Miskeen, seizing hold of 95 per cent of the town in a two-day blitz.
The content of the Russian-Jordanian talks has not been made public but the air strikes did not stop. By the time Gen Al Zabin returned to Amman on January 29, Sheikh Miskeen had fallen.
Weapons supplies were also a key factor working against the rebels. While munitions supplies from the MOC continued they did not always reach the rebel units most in need on the Sheikh Miskeen front lines. Many units received nothing, while others were fairly well supplied, according to accounts from several rebel commanders.
But more critical than the availability of weaponry was a renewed disorganisation in rebel ranks. Aided by MOC planners, rebels made strong advances in the south in 2014, largely because of joint operations rooms, which unified rebel efforts and enabled them to better manage their resources on the battlefield.
Another commander complained that high-ranking rebels spent too much time in Amman, lobbying the MOC and “back-stabbing” other rebel units in a competition to get weapons and gain influence with countries bankrolling the MOC.
Phil Sands contributed to this story from Boston, USA
http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/loss-of-southern-front-town-points-to-disarray-in-syrian-rebel-ranks
Interesting write up from southfront, even if we knew some of it.. But it shows why Assad says ceasefire must include not regrouping and resupplying and the borders must be closed to terrorist logistics.. It also shows just show much support foreign governments supplied to terrorists and mercenaries, including the US that supplied tens of thousands of modern anti tank rockets, which can also be used against US tanks in case they invade another country..
South Front – The Syrian war’s outcome will be decided in Latakia province
Syrian government forces, supported by militias and Russian air power, liberated all the strategically important towns and terrain features of Latakia province. We now can predict soon the offensive’s continuation into Idlib province and a breakout towards the Turkish border, which will lead to a complete defeat of all jihadi and pro-Turkish regime mercenaries on this most important front of the Syrian war.
Attention has been shifting from one sector of the front to another, depending on how rapidly events have been unfolding. Due to the rapidly changing events in the Aleppo province theater, events in Latakia province have taken a back seat, even though Latakia province is just as important.
In some respects the province of Latakia is more important, both in terms of Syria’s internal politics and vis-a-vis the Turkish regime. News reports about the Syrian government military liberating the last bastion of terrorists in Latakia province should not be underestimated.
In order to appreciate the importance of events in Latakia, one has to remember the history of the Syrian war.
Ankara began to interfere in Latakia’s political affairs, particularly in its northern border part, as soon as the protest movement in Syria got underway. The Turkish regime-supported terrorists attempted to ignite an uprising in Kinsabba as early as the spring of 2011, but the Syrian government forces quickly eliminated it. The terrorists were clearly from outside Kinsabba. The majority of the local population actively opposed them. Even Syrian Turkomen supported the government, not just Syrian Alawites.
During the summer of 2011, pro-Turkish regime terrorists retreated eastward and fabricated a rebellion in Jisr-ash-Shugur, a key highway intersection whose control makes it possible to exerts influence into strategic regions of Syria’s north and west. The north, west, and north-west are the most densely populated parts of Syria, the rest is just desert with occasional oasis towns. It’s also the most fertile part of the country, whose coastline is teeming with activity. Even now the Syrian coast, with the ports of Tartus and Latakia through which all of Syria’s international trade is exchanged, as well as humanitarian and military cargo passes, is the foundation of the Syrian government’s power.
Fighting in and around Aleppo is strategically important also, but not as vital as defending Latakia province. Losing the Syrian coastal zone would mean a complete defeat for president Bashar al-Assad’s government. This incidentally partly determined the choice of Hmeimin military airport as the air base for the Russian Aerospace Task Force.
Fighting in Latakia has always been difficult and bloody, though it remained relatively unreported by western media. As one goes from the coast toward the Turkish border, the fertile lands are replaced by rolling hills and then by densely forested mountains. Pro-Turkish regime and jihadi terrorists spent many years entrenching themselves there. Conducting offensive operations in such terrain and climate are very difficult. That’s why the fighting to liberate Salma lasted as long as it did. Moreover, that battle was crucial not only locally but for the whole of Syria. If the terrorists succeeded in retaining control over Salma-Kinsabba-Gmam, they could have then launched an offensive from the mountains toward the coastal plain, straight down towards Latakia city and the M1 highway. The Turkish regime viewed it as a mortal blow that president Assad’s government would not have survived. The Turkish regime bet on the local Syrian Turkoman population, under the pretext of protecting that minority to supply weapons and other “humanitarian aid.” Despite the fact that the majority of the region’s inhabitants at the start of the war were Alawite Syrians, whom the mercenary jihadis and pro-Turkish regime terrorist groups began to actively and ethnically murder. Today it’s no longer clear what the national and religious composition is, since whole towns were razed to the ground and their original inhabitants either were ethnically cleansed or became refugees.
During the summer of 2011 Damascus understood what a rebel victory could mean in Latakia province, combat helicopters were sent to suppress the fabricated revolt in Jisr-ash-Shugur. The three-day assault on the city was the bloodiest event during the initial stage of the war. Several thousand refugees crossed the border into Turkey, some regular army units joined the mercenary jihadis and pro-Turkish regime terrorists. Jisr-ash-Shugur was liberated and cleared of terrorists.
Later and thanks to UN mediation between president Assad’s government and the so called opposition, a ceasefire was reached which the so called opposition used to rearm and receive reinforcements. Government forces at the time were already experiencing shortages of personnel and equipment, and after the ceasefire the most experienced units were redeployed from northern Latakia to other sectors of the country which became more critical.
After the ceasefire expired, the rested and well-armed pro-Turkish regime forces launched a three-pronged offensive toward Kinsabba, Salma and Jisr-ash-Shugur. Fighting there turned into slaughter, because even with the direct participation of the Turkish regime military advisers, it proved impossible to capture Kinsabba and Salma. They managed to succeed a year later, and turned those places into fortresses. Kinsabba switched hands several times, one time the pro-Turkish regime captured the city and carried out a genocidal massacre of non-Muslims or not-quite-Muslims population, mainly Syrians of the Armenian and Alawite faith. Government forces expelled the terrorists a day later only to find mountains of corpses of dead civilians.
Ultimately the mercenary jihadists succeeded in invading and occupying these strategic locations, but the attempt to continue their march towards the coastline failed. The decision hung by a thread. Turkish regime air force bombed Syrian government positions on more than one occasion. Pressure was exerted against the whole frontline in Latakia’s foothills. Pro-Turkish regime terrorists reached Gmama’s outskirts, and the situation became critical by autumn of 2015. One could heroically hang on to the ruins of Kinsabba, to a couple of hills around Salma, but the loss of the coastline was then only a matter of time, and Turkish regime military advisors’ skill. Advancing along highway M4, the mercenary jihadists and Turkomen terrorists were gradually invading and occupying Latakia province.
Turkomen terrorists turned out to be the least effective, so the Ankara regime assigned to them only symbolic functions. However, relying on al-Nusra terrorists was also a dubious proposition, therefore the Turkish regime deployed a brigade of “grey wolves” mercenaries to the Latakia province front, and also battle-hardened units consisting of mercenaries from the Northern Caucasus and Central Asia.
In the meantime, the so called “opposition” and mercenary jihadist terrorists on other sectors kept a low profile, and observed how the Syrian state is collapsing. Even ISIS stopped after taking Palmyra and held its breath.
It’s at that moment that Syria’s government turned to Russia for help. The Turkish offensive in Latakia until recently was the most promising and successful military operation of the war. Latakia province became the focus of Russian Aerospace task Force during the first month of action in Syria. That province was also the first to see modern weapons delivered by Russia, including Smerch and Uragan MRLs, TOS-1A rocket flamethrowers, Msta-B howitzers. The al-Nusra terrorists and the Turkish regime offensive ran aground, and forced the terrorists to go on the defensive, adopting a positional defense along the Salma-Rabia-Kabir line. But government forces did not feel strong enough to push the enemy off the heights it occupied, due to the difficult terrain. Fighting once again turned into a slug fest which went on for several months. The attention shifted to other sectors of the front, Latakia was partly forgotten, even though that’s where the war’s outcome was being decided.
The Turkish regime’s leaders had not forgotten Latakia. The pro-Turkish regime terrorists fought for every hill, even though Russian airstrikes forced them to retreat toward the Turkish border.
The Turkish regime rapidly began to lose control over the Latakia province front situation, and could not even think of a coastal offensive. It’s at that critical moment the Su-24 was shot down by a Turkish regime war plane, with Turkomen terrorists who turned up exactly where they were needed to kill the Russian pilot of the attacked Russian Su-24.
Russia however, replied by stepping up the pressure, and government forces soon retook Salma. After that, the al-Nusra and pro-Turkish regime terrorists united front collapsed, mercenary brigades turned their backs and ran. Syrian government forces advanced 30km on several sectors without meeting a single so called “opposition” terrorist.
Current fighting in Latakia is “eclipsed” by the events around Aleppo and the information war concerning Turkish regime pressures on Syria’s Kurds in northern Syria. Meanwhile government forces supported by Russian air power are preparing to retake Jisr-ash-Shugur and to finally trap pro-Turkish regime mercenaries against the Turkish border. Syrian Jebel-al-Turkoman hills are nearly entirely liberated, and those parts which are not liberated are surrounded. Turkish regime logistics have been almost completely eliminated.
If the Turkish regime loses it’s second and last proxy force in Syria, after having lost the first one in Aleppo province, the Ankara regime will completely lose its ability to influence events in the Syrian republic.
The access road to Aleppo is under attack:
Meanwhile, the Syrian government’s supply route to the city of Aleppo was cut by heavy fighting Monday as the army, supported by allied militias and the Russian air force, fought to consolidate its recent gains in the northern province.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on a network of contacts to monitor the war, said Islamic militias assaulted government-held positions around Khanaser, a town southeast of Aleppo, setting off intense clashes that have lasted through the day. Khanaser lies along the government’s only access route to Aleppo.
See http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/syria-heavy-fighting-cuts-off-road-city-off-37107316
IS cuts supply lines to Aleppo..
https://twitter.com/okkupant186/status/701769429856755712
Is it superman? the silver surfer? no its the white swan
Rus to enter into service new test equipment for fuel and other components of Tu-160’s engines this Feb v @rianru
https://twitter.com/KURYERSAT/status/700335660641730560
Hey, folks!! You say I’ve seen everything I doubt it! MiG-31BM (high altitude interceptor) night cockpit -S.Boldenkov
https://twitter.com/KURYERSAT/status/701474823684415488
YaK-130 cockpit… At first looks like small space ship v (c) V.Karasev
https://twitter.com/KURYERSAT/status/701137706190053377
Rus reinforced Erebuni a/base (Armenia) with some MiG-29s, 1-MiG-29S and 1-Mi-8MT v https://twitter.com/KURYERSAT/status/700971370566520832
Heavy missile cruiser “Pyotr Velikiy” to get hypersonic missiles (~10) “Zircon” >5M during updating 2019-22 v TASS
RuAF scrambles MiG-31BMs (Khotilovo AFB) -> https://t.co/79zXLtuC3Y
SyAF Su-22m4 , armed with 6 barrel bombs
https://twitter.com/syrianmilitary/status/701761284090556416
Worrying trend.Reportedly Jaish al Sunna convoy. Group was bombed by US in Idlib (Aug. 2015),linked to AQ/JN.