by Alexander Mercouris for The Duran
Evidence is mounting that the Russians are cranking up to resume large scale bombing in and around the Syrian city of Aleppo.
The background is an agreement which was concluded by the US and the Russians in February. This called for a “cessation of hostilities” between the various Syrian factions in return for which Russia’s bombing campaign in Syria was to be scaled down.
The “cessation of hostilities” was not a ceasefire and was not intended to be. This was because the two biggest groups fighting the Syrian government – Daesh (“the Islamic State”, also sometimes called ISIS) and Al-Qaeda’s local Syrian franchise – Jabhat Al-Nusra – were expressly excluded from it. The UN Security Council previously declared both organisations terrorist organisations and neither were parties to the “cessation of hostilities” agreement. In fact both denounced it.
A fundamental part of the “cessation of hostilities” agreement was that the US would persuade the various groups it supports in Syria – the so-called “moderates” who form the so-called “Free Syrian Army” – to separate their fighters from these two terrorist groups.
The reason the Russians are now cranking up to resume their bombing in and around Aleppo is because the separation of so-called “moderate fighters” from those of Daesh and Jabhat Al-Nusra in and around Aleppo has never happened. On the contrary the fighters of the various Syrian groups remain intermingled with each other and continue to fight alongside each other.
As for the US, there is little or no evidence that it has ever made any serious attempt to persuade the so-called “moderate fighters” it supports to separate themselves from Daesh or Jabhat Al-Nusra. On the contrary the whole weight of the US’s diplomatic activity over the last few weeks has been to dissuade the Russians from bombing Jabhat Al-Nusra from in and around Aleppo on the grounds that this might hit the so-called “moderate fighters”.
To understand how extraordinary that demand is, just consider that the US has never in all the air campaigns it has waged in the Middle East – whether against the Taliban in Afghanistan or in Iraq or in Libya or Syria – ever sought to distinguish between “militants” and “moderates”.
When the US bombed Afghanistan in 2001 in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks its stance was totally straightforward – it bombed the Taliban everywhere and anywhere it could without making any distinction between its supposed militant and moderate factions. It was left to anyone who wanted to avoid getting bombed to get out of the way. This despite the fact that such different factions within the Taliban – actually a loose coalition of different groups – are known to have existed, and despite the fact that Al-Qaeda (the nominal target of the whole campaign) and the Taliban were distinct organisations. The mere fact the Taliban and Al-Qaeda were physically connected with each other sufficed for the US to bomb them both.
The fact the US has been pressuring the Russians to desist from bombing Jabhat Al-Nusra – ie. Al-Qaeda in Syria – has been barely reported in the West or in the US. If the families of the victims of the 9/11 attacks – or indeed the US soldiers who fought against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Iraq and Afghanistan and their families – were ever to learn that in Syria the US is protecting Al-Qaeda they would surely feel betrayed.
A series of complaints and messages from Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov suggests that the Russians are now close to having enough. Lavrov has made clear that the Russians consider the US in breach of the “cessation of hostilities” agreement the Russians and the US concluded with each other in February.
The Russians also see what is in fact obvious, that Jabhat Al-Nusra make use of any cessation of the bombing to re-equip and redeploy and to launch new attacks against Syrian army positions. Moreover when they do so the US’s so-called “moderate fighters” enthusiastically cooperate with them. A short while ago fighters from Jabhat Al-Nusra in cooperation with fighters of one of the so-called “moderate” groups together stormed an Alawite village and jointly massacred 19 of its civilian inhabitants including children and old people.
Here it is necessary to say something about the true situation in Syria. This is that the so-called “moderate forces” the US and the Western media constantly talk about quite simply don’t exist.
The collapse of the government’s authority over much of Syria meant that various village militias set themselves up to fill the void in different parts of the country. Some of them have claimed to be affiliated with the “Free Syrian Army” in order to get access to Western supplies, and many of them get lumped together by the US as if they were a coherent united fighting force. These militias are however focused on their own districts and are not seriously involved in the war.
As our writer Afra’a Dagher – who is an actual Syrian journalist based in Syria – has written, those fighters who are actually rebels – that is those fighters who actually fight the Syrian army and who seek to overthrow the Syrian government – call themselves at various times by different names but in reality are simply one and the same people.
In order to attract fighters, arms supplies and donations from the Gulf and elsewhere, they say they are Daesh or – if they are fighting around Aleppo – Jabhat Al-Nusra, or by any of various other colourful names that jihadi extremist groups in Syria like to use when it suits them. When they want to prevent the Russian air force bombing them, or when they need to get diplomatic support from the US or from Turkey or the West, they pretend to be “moderates” and call themselves the “Free Syrian Army”.
As Russia’s President Putin himself said in his recent speech to the UN General Assembly, “these people are cruel but they are not dumb”.
Both the US and the Russians know all this perfectly well. Both have for different reasons engaged in the fiction that there are “moderate fighters” in Syria who can be distinguished from the armed jihadis. The US does this because its priority is the overthrow of the Syrian government, not the defeat of violent jihadism in Syria. The Russians do it because they have always sought a diplomatic solution to the Syrian conflict, which would involve the Syrian rebels’ keep supporters – Saudi Arabia and the US – which they see as the only way to secure an end to the war.
News of a major rebel offensive against Aleppo’s Kurdish districts over the last few days has however brought Russian patience to breaking point. Diplomatic engagement with the US having failed to prevent this offensive, the Russians are all but saying that bombing is about to resume.
I would not like to be lumped together with the serial Putin critics and regular hurra-patriots, but I have to say that I do not totally understand how Russia is approaching this conflict and how Russian diplomacy is handling the cessation of hostilities.
It was probably clear to everyone that this cessation of hostilities could only be provisory ; that Jabhat al-Nusra and affiiliates would use it as a respite to resupply ; that the US would not desist from their policy of destroying the Syrian state. In short, the only positive effects I could see was a minor strengthening of Russia’s stance in the UNSC, and the possibility for the Syrian army to rotate its troops, refresh them, and resupply.
In short, for us regular peons it seems as if Russia took the whole “cessation of hostilities” thing a bit too literally. Of course, on the other hand, throwing all caution to the wind and saying bluntly to the US and their associates that the game is up and that Russia will not stop until total destruction of the jihadists may be interpreted as a quasi-declaration of World War.
So I can only assume (and hope) that the reason why Russia entered into this agreement was because, in the background, the US made unmistakably clear that they would dramatically raise the ante should Russia exploit its advantage in Syria to completely annihilate the jihadists there.
But still : unless Russia folds completely, there will come a point where a decision will have to be made. Either the US gets its way, and the Syrian state is dissolved, or Russia gets its way. But there can be no middle ground, there cannot subsist a jihadist micro-state in Syria, as the US will systematically try to inflate it to destabilise. In short, on the long term the only option for Russia is to totally exterminate the jihadis, and seal Syria’s borders so that such rebellions cannot happen again in the future.
In view of the developments regarding the ABM, it seems to me that there will be a point in time where this choice will have to be put in front of the USA, with the only alternative being a strategic nuclear war.
I would be interested to hear Mr. Mercouris thoughts on what the endgames could be.
You can not win that war from the air, especially since the logistix chain of the enemy(both human and hardware resources) is essentially intact.
There are no good moves here for Russia without escalation.
Just gotta keep shoveling while keeping a keen eye on the domestic front.
One thing to exploit might be the Kurdish/turkish stalemate, but even that is as explosive as anything else I imagine.
The optimum outcome from all this, methinx, would be the implosion of the turkish state(and nato as we know it) – and the creation of a Kurdish one.
Syria cannot accept a Kurdish state carved out of it, t might be amenable to an autonomous region, a la Russia,A stae carved out of Syria is plan B, in case Usrael cannot plant some of their terrorists in the Syrian government.
I support your analysis, but I believe that apart form kurdish/turkish conflict there are many more possible ones there (Izrael/Lebanon, Jordan/Palestinians) that can be played out to ones advantage. So far Russians have played by the book and with honour, but the rest just don’t even understand what honour is. In the end it will take a hard, Russian way to deal with it, whatever the cost…
the problem with civil war including foreign/terrorist invasion is that each willage, town or small settlement has to decide own destiny and gain everything they could to survive. society is fragmented and they are thinking localy to survive. is some stronger terrorist group will guarantee them survival, they will join them. nobody can expect from people in war isolated areas to think strategically. Russia knows that and does not want to make enemy of people who are just pushed in vortex of war. they gave them a chance to rethink. today things are much clearer for everybody.
I understand that you don’t want to be lumped together with anyone.
I do appreciated people who still think by themselves, rather than joining the latest trend.
Good questions. The only thing you should have added is, that not only Russia/Syria used the time for reformations.
And while nobody talks of DonBass anymore, look what is only 2 clicks away from here, under NewsSources:
I can say, very clever outcome:
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Now, what kind of “Chess” is this then?
@Martin
man, whole globe is hostage of armed madman from White house. there is no chess anymore. it is “global hostage crisis”. Russia is negotiating. everything has to be by the book.
@ Martin from Soviet East-Berlin
But Martin, there is a ray of hope. Here, Mercouris says Russia is gonna bomb the rebels, I think in Syria.
Putin just gotta be careful, not overdo it. Should he detect that his side (the good guys) is (are) winning, he should immediately pause, enter negotiations with Kerry and make a cease-fire, long enough to give chance to the other side (the bad guys) to regroup, replenish weapon supplies, and rest (they are human beings too).
Although I don’t think there would be any problem with this, he will do it, just look at his 2.5-year record in Novorussia (Minsk n = 1, 2, …) and in Syria. Putin knows what he is doing (and if we still don’t, there is always Pollyanna to set us straight).
Ralf, yes, it looks like this.
I don’t know how long it will take until more people in Russia notice this circus.
I wished it was not true, and every time I’m hopeful again.
But at some point one has to face reality.
Well, let’s see. We cannot do much anymore.
Note from mod-hs … this is a yandex translation of the russian post at the bottom of this comment
There is the main player in the Donbass apparently Surkov . All Russian patriots were in shock after the elimination of the main leaders alternately in Lugansk : Bednova (Batman) ,Ivashchenko ,Brain , chieftain dremova , people who raised the people at the beginning of the conflict and became battalion commanders, and which are rigidly clashed with the head of the LC Carpenter (stavlenik Surkov) And now many things are questionable. Many in Russia believe that it would be more effective to send troops before the election Poroshenko after debaltseve ( there are much more than in South Ossetia in 2008)and take the South-East since then, even with normal (not brainwashed ) electorate . The West’s reaction would have been exactly the same as now , but the advantages would be much greater . Including in the negotiation process and would not have been destroyed by the war economy of Donbass , the restoration of which is visible in greater or lesser extent will fall on the shoulders of Russia , there would be no need in the present period to build a huge and very expensive bridge to Crimea , which in the case of normalization of relations with Ukraine will be uploaded by 5 percent ( he went to the Crimea via Ukraine – Melitopol 200 kilometers closer than in Sochi from the center of Russia , through Sochi plus 120 km through the tubes in the serpentine in the mountains, you can lose 8-12 hours ) and most importantly a lot of innocent victims including at the moment could have been avoided. If you can tell a Compelling foreign policy contrasts strongly with the internal . The disastrous devaluation of the ruble, including for our friends in Belarus I’m.Kazakhstan , Armenia and all Asian RES-to hit hard on a simple population rates soared to import 2 times , and the Russian goods of 50% on average . And they have in mind what would be more gas or oil the valve to open , the small business loan at 20% or more , closed businesses , retail outlets . Muscovites do not live badly and 10 percent in the regions .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dB2PCegJR8
In General, the population suffers in anti-Western rhetoric , the reasons for her since the persecution of the Sochi Olympics and the Ukrainian crisis, the West all the time presents, and succeeds in this .
Begin original post … mod-hs
Там главный шахматист по Донбассу видимо Сурков . Все русские патриоты пребывали в шоке после ликвидации поочередно главных лидеров в Луганске : Беднова (Бэтмен) ,Иващенко ,Мозгового , атамана Дремова , людей которые подняли народ в начале конфликта и стали комбатами и которые жестко конфликтовали с главой ЛНР Плотницким (ставленик Суркова) И сейчас многие вещи сомнительны. Многие в России считают что гораздо эффективнее было бы ввести войска до выборов Порошенко или после Дебальцево ( поводов гораздо больше чем в Южной Осетии в 2008)и взять Юго-Восток с тогда еще с нормальным (не промытыми мозгами ) электоратом . Реакция Запада была бы точно такой же как и сейчас , но плюсов было бы гораздо больше . В том числе и в переговорных процессах и не было бы разрушенной войной экономики Донбасса , восстановление которой видимо в большей или меньшей степени ляжет на плечи России , не было бы необходимости в настоящий период строить огромный и супердорогой мост на Крым , который в случае нормализации отношений с Украиной будет загружен процентов на 5 ( сам ездил в Крым через Украину – Мелитополь километров на 200 ближе чем через Сочи из центра России , плюс через Сочи 120 км через пробки по серпантину в горах можно часов 8-12 потерять ) Ну и самое главное много мирных жертв в том числе и в настоящий момент можно было бы избежать. Если можно сказать Убедительная внешняя политика сильно контрастирует с внутренней . Губительная девальвация рубля, в том числе и для наших друзей Белоруссия я.Казахстан , Армения и для всех Азиатских рес-к сильно ударила по простому населению цены взлетели на импорт в 2 раза , и Российские товары процентов на 50 в среднем . А у них на уме какой бы еще газовый или нефтяной вентиль открыть , кредиты малому бизнесу под 20% и больше , закрываются предприятия , торговые точки . Москвичи живут не плохо и процентов 10 в регионах .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dB2PCegJR8
В общем население терпит на антизападной риторике , причины для нее со времен травли Олимпиады в Сочи и украинского кризиса, Запад все время преподносит и преуспевает в этом .
re: “So I can only assume (and hope) that the reason why Russia entered into this agreement was because, in the background, the US made unmistakably clear that they would dramatically raise the ante should Russia exploit its advantage in Syria to completely annihilate the jihadists there.”
You may be being a bit optimistic with that. Russia could have plenty of motives for her behavior. One could be to test what Iran, Turkey, and the US would do. Who would send in more troops? Another could be to pause for negotiations with the US over things like the Kurds and Turkey. Perhaps Moscow can live with a Kurdish state in Northern Iraq. Perhaps there is a discussion over what territories inside Syria could be a Kurdish federalized zone, and, if so, how do you guarantee this? Another possible reason is to get Tehran and Damascus to agree to something they don’t want to do. Federalization being the obvious thing. Surely there are more possibilities than this.
If the US wanted to threaten nukes, that would likely have happened some time ago regarding Syria. It looked like it was awfully close back when the British parliament voted.
I doubt very much that the Russians had any illusions that the US would stop supporting terrorists in Syria after they had supported them for 4 years. But the cessation of hostilities was absolutely proper to give the widest berth for what little chance there was for a diplomatic solution. Failing that, a cessation of hostilities would once again demonstrate to anyone who was interested enough to look into the matter, that the US was supporting terrorists in the name of fighting terrorism. Again, the Russians win the news cycle. They look diplomatic, but resolute, while the US is seen to be duplicitous, untrustworthy and aggressive. It is unfortunate that more Syrians are dying while this diplomatic charade plays out, but it’s only a charade because the US insists that it be so. And now that the Russians are preparing to return to the battlefield, their cause is unassailable – they “gave peace a chance” so to speak only to have it thrown back in their faces. I agree this is a sad end, but little by little the world is being brought to the conclusion that the US, not Russia, is the malefactor.
Its not clear now ‘minor’ Russia’s diplomatic gains are. The U.S. has been given every chance to hang itself diplomatically. That will have long term consequences.
Russia has had to fight the war on its own besieged economy, while the $U.S. enjoys reserve currency status, allowing its war machine to mooch of everyone else’s GDP, including Russia’s. The ‘race to the bottom’ every developed Western central bank took could be interpreted as an attempt to support $U.S. hegemony. After all, the U.S. is the most vital pawn of the Anglo-Zionist globalist order.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/interest-rates-it-s-a-race-to-the-bottom-but-still-the-only-way-is-down-a6750851.html
The Pentagon’s Long War is an economic war; hot proxy wars are meant to bleed opponents, not necessarily make gains on the ground. Of course, taking ground does enhance capability to foster chaos.
Putin’s steps have been measured, so far it seems, appropriately. After all, no economy, no war. Russia has an economy; the U.S. has what’s left of its own plus everyone else’s in the Empire.
Tass just reported that Lavrov said that bombing is about to resume,, about time, this time I hope that Russia shows no mercy towards the cannibals.
I could not agree more, With all due respect, but Russian political leadership needs to stop acting like Charlie Brown regarding any and all dealings with its Anglo-zionist “partners”. I am aware of Russian will to settle disputes and issues in the old-fashioned way through diplomacy and wide inclusiveness, but how exactly do you negotiate with psychopaths…?
This whole mess could’ve been solved a few months ago and with it many innocent Syrian lives would’ve been spared, I hope this time the Bear awakes from its inertness and resumes the Syrian effort in a Spetsnaz manner – first eradicate all jihadists and liberate the entire country, then start negotiating with the remaining actors…
They need to stop acting like the almost extinct American Indians who kept believing that the US govt were not bloody psychopathic liars!
What do you want? Their leader got 10 green glass perls. And their FM got 3 blue stones and one fire extinguisher car model. So, what … ?
Signature is signature, and we do respect signatures (and intl law) …..
About time too…and with a bit of luck the Russian bombers will exterminate a few hundred traitorous US special forces personnel and rid the world of more of Uncle Sam’s murdering two faced cowards who fight for dictators and oppressors in the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia…a bunch of the nastiest Jewish shite hawks anywhere.
Oh yes…the Saudi royalty are Jews ok. If they weren’t they wouldn’t get on so well with the kikes and yids that run the Anglo-Zionist agenda. You doubt me…then do a DNA test and you’ll find all of them are racially the same, and ideologically, and politically the same two faced back stabbing paedophile murderers!
Go for in Putin and blast Jabut al Nasra/Al Qaeda back in to Washington from whence they came. Hurrah as the Russians say!
@ Richard Clay
“About time too”
That’s how I started my comment below after reading Mercouris’ article and before reading any comments. Minds ad idem.
Kim
Ahem; U.S. Special Forces traitorous? Not their political masters?
Soldiers do as they are told. There’s no doubt that some may feel more loyalty to Israel than the U.S., but not all of them are traitors. Only a few are crazies motivated by Anglo-Zionism.
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/military-year-fix-jesus-rifles/story?id=10106096
Some ex-special forces people join other soldiers in patriot movements after service. This is their winter of discontent. It may be a long one, but they may prevail against Anglo-Zionist domination of their homeland and achieve independence from Anglo-Zionism.
“Now is the winter of our discontent / Made glorious summer by this sun [or son] of York”.” Richard III, William Shakespeare.
http://www.veteransforpeace.org/pressroom/news/2014/04/04/who-are-real-winter-soldiers
Its about time. Kerry, oBOMBa and the rest are lying snakes who speak with forked tongue.
Interestingly, a Russian Tu-142, the anti-sub variant of the Tu-95 Bear, has been spotted flying over Syria. Whatever capacities ISIS has, I am sure they don’t include serious subs. I guess Russia is testing it out to see if they can detect the US subs that must be patrolling the east Med.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxzOm7KTRAQ
The anti-sub detector can be seen projecting beyond the back of the top end of the rudder.
Israel has submarine capability. The Russians should certainly be on the alert for that threat.
” Bombing is about to resume”
About time too.
It is very hard to understand the Kremlin mind-set in respect to the Syrian tragedy. We, the far off commenters with no pretence to be experts in politico-military strategy or analysis, have since the advent of “cessation of hostilities” proclaimed loud and clear that the Russians fell into a trap, the Azions did not want any peace, etc., exactly as the article says to a tee.
We are no prescient and have no crystal balls to perve into the esoteric science of international relations or privy to the formidable amount of dual intelligence available to the Kremlin, yet we could see what was in the offing: the AZion’s wardogs – who were getting a beating – obtained the relief of a truce, got resupplied, regrouped and reinforced for the next offensive.
It’s just basic common sense.
Kim
Has the entry of The USS Porter, a guided-missile destroyer, into the Black sea anything to do with the latest tensions? It feels like everything is set in place for something big. I hope I am wrong.
Note a Russian sub has in the last couple of days transferred to its new base at Sevastopol to join Black Sea Fleet.
What a bloody mess. Russian will have to tread lightly in its renewed air war in support of the Syrian regime, as will the USA in its use of its puppet regimes that surround Syria and feed the terrorists. There are also scores to settle with the sneak attack and downing of the Russian fighter jet and the murder of one of its crew and the downing of the Russian civilian air liner and that massive loss of life, but this can wait for an opportune timing.This brinkmanship is so very dangerous, what with air craft carriers from both sides standing off in the Mediterranean. The greatest problem is that there is no one abale to sit these two sides down and talk some sense into them, meaning the Americans and their threat of violence as the only policy they seem to possess. The next three or four months are pivotal as to whether or not a very nasty war, most likely to end going nuclear, is in the works or if the back channels can defuse the situation to a less confrontational stance. This is a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis write large. Will saner heads within the U.S. military prevail against their bosses?
Putin critics are entitled to their opinion.
Their opinion has no relevance to geopolitical strategy, domestic policy, intelligence analytics, military strategy and tactics.
Putin is doing what he needs to do to achieve Russian goals.
Part of that was related to each of the above categories I listed.
Most of all, he put the US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and their terrorist armies in a box using his military and diplomatic moves.
Now, he will destroy what is in the box.
He intended to help Syria reclaim control of the battlezone.
He intended to help Syrian people determine their own future.
He intended to make Russia a permanent regional power in the Eastern Mediterranean and ME.
All these goals are very close to accomplishment.
All these goals have been done with very little extra cost to the military budget.
All these goals have been done with very little loss of Russian life, and very little loss of equipment.
From my observation, Putin has been as masterful as Russian aerospace has been near-flawless.
I think I understand what he intends, and I make my judgment based on those intentions.
Syria, for its horror and hell, is actually very clear to see what Russia’s goals are and how they are progressing.
@ Larchmonter445
An who says our opinion has no relevance to all that?
Just last week I sent an advice to the Kremlin via a MOD (thank you) to the effect that a wedge must be inserted between Europe and US to avoid war. Just a few days later the AZION bloviators were screaming that Putin was intent on destroying Nato!
Kim
@ Larchmonter445 on June 07, 2016 · at 2:17 am UTC
> Putin is doing what he needs to do to achieve Russian goals.
Whose’s ?
re: “I think I understand what he intends, and I make my judgment based on those intentions.”
This is reasonable, but it is the cause of so much doubt. Many of us don’t think we know what Russian strategy is on various fronts. As an example, I have heard from an Iranian analyst and I see it on Iran Military Forum regularly, that the part of the Iranian system that is not pro-Western is now livid about what Russia has been up to the last few months. The latest ceasefire is part of that, but there seems to have been a change to go along with federalization of Syria or a permanent occupation in a no-man’s land kind of way that will leave Iran in a less-than-happy state. Sure, you can say that’s the way it goes, but the Iranian feeling was more that they had been deceived. I don’t pretend to be able to have an opinion on this, I am just stating something that you might not have heard. Tehran can’t afford to go public with this emotion, just as the Donbass can’t complain. But the real world is inhabited by people, with all kinds of emotions. One of those emotions is that you can respect or live with an enemy better than a friend who deceives you. At the top, policy may be heartless, but those in lower positions use their heart all the time.
You probably think this is just more of the anti-Putin trash talking, but it isn’t. I think, as the Saker used to say quite a bit, that there are different towers in the Russian establishment, and that policies are compromises within that. In other words, policies aren’t Putin’s to praise or attack. There was a strong pro-Turkish lobby in Russia till recently, for example, and it goes without saying that Israel is an important case. Those go against Iran. Putin and the National Security Council have to balance all these interests. A very tough job. But the result often looks like an inconsistent approach to things. Sometimes it looked like the Kremlin wanted to help Poroshenko and sometimes it looked like they wanted to speed up the collapse. And these actions could happen within days of each other.
As a thought experiment, do you think the Kremlin’s actual goal is to return the Donbass to Kiev? If not, what do you think they are actually aiming for? My guess is that they hope for an economic collapse so the EU will come to Moscow asking for a partnership in fixing the mess, as opposed to with threats. But this is just a guess, and those on this forum who live in Russia are likely to have a much better idea of what the actual thinking is.
I think Russia is happy enough to leave their anti-Ukraine in the Donbass for as long as required. The time pressure is on the Ukinazis, as their failed state is falling apart and the population are about to realise the snakeoil of Euro-integration was always a lie. The neoliberal parasites are going to rape Ukraine for all she’s worth and hand her back to Russia once they can no longer hold it. The people of Europe can look at Greece, and now Ukraine and see exactly what awaits them in the EU/NATO. Shame on you Germany, you should know better.
Hasn’t Germany won in Greece? You can’t realistically expect to create an EU empire without a little suffering. What I don’t quite understand is the desire of so many Europeans to create a big European state. Haven’t the attempts of folks like Napoleon and Hitler shown the dangers? It seems like they are drawing the wrong lessons from the Nazis.
@ Paul II
As far as I know, hasn’t it always been the policy of the Russian Federation that the Donbass should remain a part of Ukraine? Russia discouraged and did not recognize the independence referendums. Also, the Minsk II agreement requires the reintegration of Donbass into Ukraine.
I seem to recall a report at one point that Putin had called for statehood for the Donbass republics (perhaps Oct 2014?) the report was very quickly refuted by the Russian government.
Is there any reason to think otherwise?
That is the stated policy, but to do it would mean slaughter or exodus in the Donbass and disgrace for Russia. Russia’s stated policy may be some vision of “one great area from Lisbon to Vladivostok”, too, but that is not what the choices are. NATO took over Kiev, and is unlikely to give it back. It took them decades to get it, and the US has plenty of experience at propping up terrible and terribly unpopular regimes. So the real question is what is a pragmatic policy, not one for a perfect world. Similarly, stated US policy is probably for “democracy” for Syria, but they would probably settle for partitioning.
Diplomacy is based on lying; that is the nature of the world.
@ Paul II
Speaking theoretically though, wasn’t Minsk II supposed to provide for a peaceful reintegration of the Donbass with Ukraine? Do you think Russia is insincere in advocating for Minsk II? Otherwise what do you think Russia’s strategy could be? One alternative would be for Russia to enable/allow the NAF to defeat the UA and at least force them out of the Donbass. Another would be to simply maintain a stalemate, keep the UA from a genocidal conquest of the Donbass and supplying humanitarian aid. I don’t see what other options exist.
I speculated in my earlier answer that Moscow may be hoping that Kiev collapses due to economic and social problems. If this were to happen, perhaps the EU would have to come to Russia and ask to work things out as partners, as opposed to enemies. If that were to fail, perhaps a Transdenistria scenario for a long time is the goal. There is nothing wrong with these kinds of goals, but it is just to point out that diplomacy is part of geopolitics, which is war by less violent means. And all war is based on deception. Your scenario of building up the NAF in case it is needed makes good sense. Perhaps Moscow wants to keep as many options open as possible. All fine, but Minsk is not “real”.
I think Moscow was sincere in wanting to lessen the bloodshed and destruction, which is what Minsk achieved. And, sure, Moscow would like a neutral Ukraine, but that is what they wanted all along, as long as they kept their military in the Crimea and could do reasonable business there.
And when a ukraine army attack has been repulsed yesterday with AFU dead, and Kiev refuses to attend an emergency contact Minsk meeting over this and increasing military activity and digging in by kiev , and Donbass is expecting even more “provocations” in the next few weeks….is Russia still going to continue with Minsk is the only solution one wonders……..
“Putin critics are entitled to their opinion.Their opinion has no relevance to geopolitical strategy … ”
You are very wrong on it, Putin popularity has a lot to do with it.
I support Putin for now, however I’m starting to see his mistakes, it is likely caused by external/internal pressures.
P.S. Perhaps is time to lead us by И́горь Все́володович Ги́ркин.
It looks like Igor has been suborned by the anti-Putin gang. Money? Ego massaging? Delusions of grandeur?
@ WizOz
Sorry, but Igor Girkin, who is much better known by his nom de guerre Igor Strelkov, has not been suborned by any “gang”, anti-Putin or pro-Putin or neutral. It is simply wrong by any measure to throw mud at him. He is a true Russian patriot, a valiant fighter for liberation of Malorussia from Nazi butchers who installed themselves in the capital of Malorussia, Kiev. He distinguished himself in the war in Novorussia, the Malorussia’s south-east. I could cite you many Russian sources (in Russian) that testify to his great valour and exceptional character, but perhaps an article in English by our Alexander Mercouris would give you at least some idea about the man: http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/02/06/3221
There is no doubt that Strelkov has acquired many personal enemies because of his principled stand in Malorussia. In the first place, the entire West. And his especially bitter enemies are the entire Russian fifth column. While among those who have interests of Russia at heart, some are personally opposing him, while many are on his side. But he has never been “suborned” by anyone, and spreading any such misinformation would amount to wanton slander.
It is the jubilation of the Western MSM at his irresponsible declarations that would let you think so:
(The Guardian) “Russia’s ‘valiant hero’ in Ukraine turns his fire on Vladimir Putin.
Igor Strelkov, Russian ‘military hero’ of the war in Ukraine, steps out of the shadows to fire salvo at president Putin and predict upheaval in Russia”…
“Putin and his circle have recently taken steps which I believe will almost inevitably lead to the collapse of the system,” Strelkov said. “We don’t know yet how, and we don’t know when, but we are certain it will collapse, and more likely sooner than later.”
“last week (he) released a declaration strongly critical of President Vladimir Putin, and predicting upheaval and bloodshed in Russia in the near future.”
They match the declarations of Khodorkovsky: “A revolution to topple the Russian government is inevitable”, “Our objective in the relatively near future is to have Putin and his friends resign from the government, to launch a political process in Russia and guarantee the first absolutely open and honest elections,”
And all that just before the parliamentary elections?
I really don’t know what country that the Guardian and Khodorkovsky and his crowd are looking at. But I don’t think it is Russia. The Russia I see is not poised for some kind of “5th column Revolution” to overthrow Putin. I think that if Putin was today to order the purge and arrest of every 5th columnist in Russia ,at least 2 out of 3 people would be jumping for joy. I don’t see a military coup against Putin. They would probably be cheering the 5th column purge the loudest. If there was ever to be a coup against him it would come from those that consider him “too weak” against the West. Not supporters of the West.And the West should pray that doesn’t happen. Because the “new Russian” rulers wouldn’t tolerate one 1/10th of the disrespect that Putin does.The West would have “sowed the wheat,and reaped the whirlwind”.
I think some of you here are being a little short-sighted while exasperating over Russian diplomacy. America does not win wars on the battlefield, they win them with propaganda and dirty geopolitics. Russia has spent the last few months defending against a much tougher adversary than the head-chopping dead-enders in Syria. They have spent the time and political capital, and risked the re-arming of the Jihadis, to deflect US propaganda and setup the media discourses for the next phase. Anyone left on the battlefield now has had the chance to come to the table, the ones who are left are fair game when the Sukhoi Storm comes rolling in from the North. The gloves will be off to all who have been watching, and there is very little the US can say about it. This time hopefully Russia will finish the job, but in the end it is very easy for us here to send young Russians off to die. I am just as guilty of feeling that banned emotion hope when I see Russia taking her rightful place in the world. The best thing we can all do is defend her in the media and make sure the alternative discourse is being considered by others who are watching.
Hopefully those israeli, american and nato special forces operating with the zionazis pet cannibals will get vapourised along with their charges once the Russian bombig starts.
Good to see you back youve been absent a while.
these thugs or rats or thug rats are not rebels.
they are terrorists. all of them.
just call ’em al qaeda. one name. their purpose, u.s. goal is the same.
just different labels, tactics by u.s. so u.s. can be double faced, forked tongue.
bomb that one or two but not these dozens.
that one wears a flower behind the ear.
the other drools blood.
trust not a damned thing from the zionized/judaized west and israel.
never!
The american government will continue its efforts to destabilise Syria as the Western elites are against the existence of any sovereign independent state.
The “West” has many weapons at its disposal. Sanctions, mass media propaganda, economic war, funding of terrorists and mercenaries.
Even though Assad and Baath are still in power (and have the popular support), the “Western” powers have managed to divide the once unitary state of Syria.
The West has plans to divide Syria as it was during the period of French colonial control when it was known as the French Mandate of Syria. Syria was divided in several “states” (Alewite, Aleppo, Jabal Druze, Damascus ).
With the present war situation, the map of Syria reminds that of the French Mandate of Syria. The Government controls capital Damascus and Latakia, ISIS controls most of what was the state of Damascus, Kurds control most of the state of Aleppo, and the “rebels” control parts of Aleppo and the old Druze state.
Similarly, Libya is now divided between different governments and factions that control Libyan territories as it were divided during Italian Colonial administration (Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan).
What we have is an attempt to return to a new period of colonial control with the creation of several puppet states.
The same happened to Yugoslavia, a powerful and sovereign country in Southern Europe.
What was Yugoslavia is now divided in several very weak states that are fully controlled by the west. Serbia resisted to western attempts but payed the consequences with the NATO bombings and the illegal secession of Kosovo.
Yes! Do it as soon as possible!
The Russians are bombing the crap out of Aleppo as I type this and I mean massive bombing with Tochka ballistic missiles thrown in for good measure! Good article!
Aleppo needs to be resolved, but the race the Raqqa is also important. Russia/Syria seem to be being herded into doing both at once.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-race-for-raqqa-could-two-world-powers-meet-in-battle-over-isis-hq/5529758
The U.S./NATO have lost almost all their Syrian ground assets to attrition and extremism so now need the Kurds.
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/345411-kurds-isis-syria-us/
Whomever gets to Raqqa first will be mauled by the IS. Clearly the Kurds aren’t up to such a fight, and one has to wonder about Kurdish willingness to fight for territory they won’t be allowed to hang on to by either the U.S. or the Syrian government.
http://orientalreview.org/2015/10/14/the-race-for-raqqa-and-americas-geopolitical-revenge-in-syraq-i/
The race for Raqqa is very likely just for show. The SAA can’t afford to bleed. Of more strategic value than a ruined city that’s surely a warren of tunnels worse than Zabadani, are the Euphrates dams and perhaps Tabqa airbase, although its not clear if the airbase itself is reparable and can be made secure anymore.
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160530/1040488813/us-raqqa-operation-pr.html
These areas are on the SAA path northwards, while the Syrian ‘Democratic Forces’ are halted at Bir Hummud while they neutralize the Jarabulus crossing by encircling Manbij, vital in the long term to securing Raqqa, but well north of its defenses.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Syrian_Civil_War_detailed_map
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-v-micallef/the-race-to-raqqa-the-nex_b_10193766.html
Securing Aleppo and the Raqqa countryside perhaps are the priorities and Raqqa itself, as vital as it is to U.S. interests, a sideshow. Syrian Democratic forces aren’t winning Raqqa unless the NATO air forces moonscape the place or IS surrenders.
Turning up the heat on Aleppo looks like the only reasonable way to proceed. Only after Aleppo is secure will the SAA know if it can secure Raqqa city itself. Urban warfare is a bloody soldier-sponge.
Saker,
Under what conditions would Russia use her arsenal of thermobaric bombs?
They would, certainly, have a massive psychological impact on Islamist forces?
Best,
Cathal
?? Thermobarics have already been used by Russia in Syria. The Daesh are neither shocked nor awed by their use. A quick google answers that.
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/warfare/2015/10/18/russia-shows-early-success-new-capabilities-syria/74041722/
Russian military doctrine based on past use is fairly clear; military targets that can’t be taken out any other way.
http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/fuelair/fuelair.htm
The West can hardly criticize; they use thermobarics in Afghanistan and Iraq. Not that anyone then was shocked or awed either; the weapons kill quickly, there’s a low survivor rate, and really, its not much different than any other gruesome explosive weapon. Thermobarics are said to be not as effective in the open as against hardened cover, like bunkers, so aren’t routinely used.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/may/28/british-pilots-afghanistan-thermobaric-weapons
Thank you for your comprehensive reply.
Cathal
Well this is where the rubber meets the road. If Putin was ever genuine about standing by a secular Syria, he must have known it was going to lead to a direct military confrontation with the West, that the ceasefire would only be used to re-arm Al Nusra and that the pretence at diplomacy would cost thousands more lives. I guess we will now see what he is really playing for.
Any disagreement on this, particularly its conclusions, or does this succinctly sum things up?
From the Duran and Eric Zuesse:
What Most Syrians See of Their War
http://theduran.com/syrians-see-war/