Russia has recently embarked on the most massive military maneuvers since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Interestingly, the role of the Ground Forces was this time rather limited and it is the Navy and the Air Force which took center stage. The maneuvers, code name “Stability 2008” included the use of Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic rocket bombers, IL-86 inflight refueling aircraft, Tu-22M3 intermediate range heavy bombers, A-50M AWACs, Mig-31 and Su-27 interceptors as well as the participation of the Navy’s flagship the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov (and its Su-33 airwing) and one SSBN which set a record with its submerged launch of an SLBM with ten MIRVs to a distance of over 11’000km. Russia’s newest Topol-M mobile (land based) ICBM was also launched by the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces. There were also less noticed aspects to all this, including the use of at least 2’000 troops from the “Cosmic Defense Forces” tasked with anti-ballistic missile interception and destruction exercises. All this points to one very clear conclusion: the Russians were practicing for a major war, not a local conflict (indeed, according to some media reports, the maneuver’s scenario featured a joint Russian-Belarussian defense against a US-NATO attack).
In the West, the message was received loud and clear, this is why CNS news stated that this “show of force was extraordinary even by Cold War standards” (this is not literally true, but it’s close enough. For example, for the first time in Russian history a strategic Tu-95MS bomber fired *all* of its strategic (nuclear) cruise missiles).
So what are the Russians up to?
I think that these maneuvers have two intended audiences. First, of course, the “crazies” in the West who might seriously be contemplating a conflict with Russia but second, the Russian armed forces themselves whom President Medvedev is trying really hard to convince that the Brezhnev/Eltsin era is over once and for all and that the Russian government is really fully determined to not only restore, but even further develop Russia’s military power. For example, Medvedev was recorded talking about this with the crew of the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov (which is reportedly in need of repairs and upgrades) and this conversation was carried by the Russian military TV channel “Zvezda” for the rest of the country to see:
(sorry for the lack of translation, but the footage really says it all)
Medvedev’s words are not the usual empty promise which has been made to the Russian armed forces for over a decade now: it is an official and long-term commitment to take all the necessary measure to secure Russia’s ability to defeat threats against it at all levels: from local insurgents (like in Chechnia), to a local war (as in Georgia), to a major war against the NATO alliance (as shown by these exercises).
On the heels of a truly amazing total defeat inflicted on the US and Israeli financed, equipped and trained Georgian military in only 4 days, these recent maneuvers point to a very different conflict scenario: the resolve and capability to take on, if needed, Saakashvili’s Imperial patrons and an increasingly aggressive and arrogant NATO alliance.
While none of this is a “full spectrum dominance” a la Neocon, this definitely shows a “full spectrum defensive capability“. Hopefully, this message will also be understood by the crazies in charge in the White House, the Imperial Congress and the Pentagon.
It might last as long as Europeans won’t stop financing the bankrupted US economy.
Military power only protects the international financial system, and when countries run out of natural resources (ie the West), they find other alternatives to piss off Russia and ask her to surrender its natural resources. Europe will try to expand its horizons inside the american hegemony until we get a new cold war (facon Putin).
The more interesting are oncoming changes in the military. Smaller army, better equipped, diminished number of generals and higher officers, changes in air forces structures to bettter support ground forces, new choppers for special forces, UAVs, etc. The “production institutes” (military hardware manufacturerers) were recently consolidated to safe the money and cutting short rivalry resulting in such botched projects like Bulava (to be fair: it will be a very good system but it has took too much time and money).
Please pay attention to important differences between USA and Russia. The US, the neocon’s empire, is able to “project her power”. Russia is not. The US is surrounded by natural mother-of-all-moats. Russia is not. These enforces on Russia’s side different defensive strategies and the corresponding allocation of resources (priorities distribution). To put it short – Russia has to defend a gigantic land area from three directions.
From what I read the years of 2012-2020 will be the most interesting of all. The USA will enter military shortcomings e.g. in navy avionics, nuclear forces, space capabilities, etc. China will emerge financial monster equipped with great nuclear submarine forces (they building more than US), space forces, and fully tested anti-carrier ballistic missiles(!). Russians should end modernization of *all* their military forces.
One would be tempted to process all the factors in supercomputer-algorithm to optimize the best time to make a war to achive this-or-that gains in relation to every of the three countries. I’d like to read the results of the simulations!
BTW. The present picture of the might of military Russia results in a part from very neat propganda efforts from her side. But no one should underestimate her potential to evolve and to develop.
Regards
Saker,
I do not like Mr Felgenhauer’s texts. I expressed my opinion in two posts of mine:
Depressing View or Anti-Russian Propaganda?
Who’s Picture’s Right – Mr Medvedev’s or Mr Felgenhauer’s?
Search my website for Felgenhauer:
http://p2o2.blogspot.com/search?q=felgenhauer
Regards
More on the proverbial 2020 and Chinese “ballistic missile with the properties of a cruise missile” (aka anti-carrier BM) in recent post on Information Dissemination:
ASW Will Always be a Secondary Mission
http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2008/10/asw-will-always-be-secondary-mission.html
One interesting thing appeared to me reading the post – why US wants to apply every possible scenario to Navy – to be ready to fight (anti)submarine, (anti)land, (anti)air, and (anti)space enemy weapon systems?
A quote – “That means the US Navy needs to embrace the ability to strike not only to targets on land or sea, but it is time to start discussing how the Navy intends to neutralize targets in space when required.”
Networks, electronics, spacetronics, etc. It will cost US a Mt Everest high pile of money. Only to find out the admiral’s toys are useless in the future wars. Think in category of measure-countermeasure. Russians have interesting powerful small EM weapons able to erase those spacetronics advantages. Are the US nuts?
Regards
Let’s put the dot over “i” (final word). If Chinese has super-secret Anti-Carrier BM (ACBM) as it is commonly assumed on the “Western front” so does the Russians and their bragging of their BMs ability to evade US BMD are not exaggerated.
I’m more at peace now :) that I will not end up in the world of perverted “US democracy”. Me and my children won’t be US slaves in the anticipated NWO shit (new world order). We are the Slavs anyway, aren’t we? So help us God. :)
The news are coming faster or I write too slowly.
Defense Minister Begins True Reform
http://www.kommersant.com/p1041044/military_reform/
Cheers
Cze P2o2;
Interesting posts :)
Do Wiedzenia
Cześć “politiques USA”!
Miło mi, dzięki! :) (nice of you, thanks)
Dobranoc (good night, it’s 10 PM here)
:)
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