The Triple Yoda, Nikolai Patrushev, hopes cooler heads can avoid sanctions such as the SWIFT ‘nuclear option’
By Pepe Escobar posted with permission and first posted at Asia Times
The Beltway was always fond of describing the late Andrew Marshall – who identified emerging or future threats for the Pentagon and whose proteges included Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz – as Yoda.
Well, if that’s the case, then Chinese national security supremo Yang Jiechi – who recently made shark fin’s soup out of Tony Blinken in Alaska – is Double Yoda. And Nikolai Patrushev – Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation – is Triple Yoda.
Amid current ice-cold US-Russia relations – plunged into their worst state since the end of the Cold War – Triple Yoda, discreet, diplomatic and always sharp as a dagger, remains a soothing voice of reason, as demonstrated in a stunning interview by Kommersant daily.
Patrushev, born in 1951, is an army general who worked for KGB counter-intel in Leningrad, during the USSR days. Starting in 1994 he was the head of quite a few FSB departments. From 1999 to 2008 he was the FSB director, and led counter-terror ops in the North Caucasus from 2001 to 2003. Since May 2008 he is Russia’s top security advisor.
Patrushev rarely talks to the media. Thus the importance, for global public opinion, of highlighting some of his key insights. Let us hope the Beltway will be listening.
Patrushev clearly states that Russia does not want Cold War 2.0: “We would really not want that.” And he hopes that “common sense will prevail in Washington.”
Patrushev speaks
On Biden declaring Putin a “killer”: “I would not like to draw parallels, but exactly 75 years ago, in March 1946, Churchill delivered the famous Fulton speech in the presence of President Truman, in which he declared our country, his recent ally in the anti-Hitler coalition, an enemy. This marked the beginning of the Cold War.”
On Ukraine and Donbass: “I am convinced that this is a consequence of serious internal problems in Ukraine, from which the authorities are trying to divert attention in this way. They solve their problems at the expense of Donbass, while capital from the country has been flowing abroad for a long time … and Kiev is selling to foreigners – as they say now, at democratic prices – those remnants of industry that were able to stay afloat.”
On the first order of business for the US and Russia: It’s “the sphere of strategic stability and arms control. There is already a positive example here. It is our common decision to extend the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Arms, which was certainly not easy for the US administration.”
On possible areas of cooperation: “There is a certain potential for joint work on such issues as the fight against international terrorism and extremism … as well as Syria, the Middle East settlement, the nuclear problem of the Korean peninsula, the JCPOA with Iran … It is long overdue to discuss cyber-security issues, especially in view of Russia’s concerns and the accusations that have been brought forward to us for several years now.”
On contacts with Washington: “They continue. At the end of March, I had a telephone conversation with the assistant to the president of the United States for national security, Mr Sullivan .… By the way, it was held in a calm, business-like atmosphere, and we communicated quite thoroughly and constructively.”
On having no illusions about US apologies: “The United States dropped atomic bombs on Japan completely unnecessarily – although they knew perfectly well that the Red Army was starting hostilities against the Japanese grouping in Manchuria; they knew that Tokyo was ready to surrender. And the Japanese, and indeed the whole world, have been told for three quarters of a century that atomic strikes were inevitable … a kind of punishment from above. Remember what Obama said in his speech at the Hiroshima mourning event? ‘Death fell from heaven.’ And he did not want to say that this death fell from an American plane on the orders of the American president.”
On improvement of relations: “Given the unprecedentedly difficult nature of the internal situation in the United States today, the prospects for the further development of relations can hardly be called encouraging.”
On the US seeing Russia as a “threat,” and whether it is reciprocal: “We now see the main threat in a pandemic. For the United States, by the way, it turned out to be the moment of truth. The problems that American politicians were hiding from their fellow citizens became obvious, including by diverting their attention to the legends of ‘aggressive Russia.’”
On US bio-labs: “I suggest that you pay attention to the fact that numbers of biological laboratories under US control are growing by leaps and bounds across the world. And – by a strange coincidence – mainly at the Russian and Chinese borders … Of course, we and our Chinese partners have questions. We are told that there are peaceful sanitary and epidemiological stations near our borders, but for some reason they are more reminiscent of Fort Detrick in Maryland, where Americans have been working in the field of military biology for decades. By the way, it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that outbreaks of diseases uncharacteristic of these regions are recorded in the adjacent areas.”
On US accusations that Russia uses chemical weapons: “There is zero evidence, there is no argumentation either; some speculation does not even withstand an elementary test … When chemical incidents occurred in Syria, conclusions were drawn instantly and based on the information of the notorious ‘White Helmets.’ The organization worked so ‘well’ that it sometimes published its reports even before the incidents themselves.”
On NATO: “The question arises: who is holding back whom? Are Washington and Brussels holding back Russia, or is it their task to hold back the development of Germany, France, Italy and other European states? On the whole, NATO can hardly be called a military-political bloc. Remember how in the days of feudalism the vassals were obliged to appear to the master with their armies at his first request? Only today they still have to buy weapons from the patron, regardless of their financial situation; otherwise questions about their loyalty will arise.”
On Europe: “Engaging with Europe is important. But being together with Europe at any cost is not a fix for Russian geopolitics. Nevertheless we keep the doors open, because we understand perfectly well that there is a momentary situation that Western politicians are guided by, and at the same time there are historical ties that have been developing between Russians and Europeans for centuries.”
On multipolarity: “There are a number of problems in the world today that, in principle, cannot be resolved without normal cooperation between the world’s leading players – Russia, the USA, the EU, China and India.”
The SWIFT ‘nuclear option’
Patrushev’s insights are particularly relevant as the Russia-China strategic partnership is solidifying by the minute; Foreign Minister Lavrov, in Pakistan, has called for literally everyone, “including the European Union,” to join Russia’s vision of a Greater Eurasia; and everyone is waiting for a face-off in the Donbass.
Patrushev’s diplomatic finesse still cannot erase the uneasy feeling in chancelleries across Eurasia about the distinct possibility of an incoming flare-up in the Donbass – with some extremely worrying consequences.
Dangerous scenarios are being openly discussed in Brussels corridors, especially one that sees the US/NATO combo expecting a de facto partition after a short hot war – with Novorossiya absorbing even Odessa.
If that is established as a fact on the ground, a new harsh round of US sanctions will follow. Iron Curtain 2.0 would be in effect; pressure for cancelation of Nord Stream 2 would reach fever pitch; and even the expulsion of Russia from SWIFT would be considered.
Dmitri Medvedev, currently Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, once called the latter “the nuclear option.” Patrushev was diplomatic enough not to address its volcanic consequences.
Patrushev is stylistically a diplomat. Calm and secure in his thoughts, certain of his information, the absolute opposite of his counterparts in the West (think John Bolton, H.R. McMaster, Susan Rice, Condoleeza Rice, Frank Carlucci, etc.).
He travels the globe and connects with Intelligence Chiefs and Presidential Advisors on behalf of the Kremlin. Holding his position for 12 years is a good indication of his effectiveness and the reliance President Putin puts on his shoulders. He secures relationships at the highest levels in the most covert manner with scores of nations.
When he surfaces, it is news. When he speaks, it is urgent.
This interview with Kommersant was for the West to digest. Especially, since Lavrov and the US Ambassador have given the cold shoulder to the US State Dept.
Patrushev calmly reiterated Russian policies without demands. Just a rational invitation to talk about the issues of highest concern. There is little sign anyone in DC is listening.
It follows Kozak’s words on Donbass and the Ukie desire to bait Russia to invade.
It follows Lavrov’s articulations of exasperation with the ‘non-agreement capable’ Americans.
And it precedes Putin’s speech on April 21 to the Russian Security Council.
There may not be a desire for Cold War 2, but it certainly looks like it is upon us.
It looks more like a hot war 3 is in the making
Cold war 2 is running since Years just nobody wants to accept this
Even in cold war 1 never a Russian president was insultet like Putin is insultet since Years
Now he is even called a soulless killer just think about this!
And in general Russians are insultet and demonized to an unbearable grotesk level
Cold war 2 is now. Hot war has to follow
Don’t we all have the feeling this situation on our planet can not continue?
The evil that comes from Washington Tel Aviv and London arrived at a climax and nothing but a bloody war can stop it
Just my 5 cents.
O mal que vem de Washington, Tel Aviv e Londres chegou ao clímax!
Sim!
Os EUA estão por trás do Golpe no Brasil!
Muitos brasileiros acompanham horrorizados os crimes do Governo Corrupto e Homicida dos EUA pelo Mundo!
Nossos corações estão com a Rússia!
Glória Eterna à Eterna Rússia!
MOD: (Translation)
The evil that comes from Washington, Tel Aviv and London has reached its climax!
Yes!
The USA is behind the coup in Brazil!
Many Brazilians are horrified at the crimes of the US Corrupt and Homicidal Government around the world!
Our hearts are with Russia!
Eternal Glory to Eternal Russia!
“Don’t we all have the feeling that this situation on our planet cannot continue?”
Yes true. I am afraid, and I see no horizon in sight, I have no hope. Humanity is depending on luck. Great likelihood of humanity ending. Humanity may have ended more often. The world elite thinks it can escape in bunkers.
Brazil was on the rise, was on the way to being a TOP 5 worldwide. After the USA acted in Brazil, the situation became unbearable, and today Brazil is close to a civil war.
Here on the blog we need to reflect a lot on these issues!
Larchmonter445
Cold War 2 has certainly arrived and it’s debatable if the old one ever passed away. Yes, there was a lull during the Yeltsin years when liberal capitalism was foolishly introduced in Russia. However, once Putin arrived on the scene, the old Cold War began to surface again, certainly in 2014 and the succeeding years. .
I think it is too general to blame ‘liberal capitalism’. Unless you want to call it extreme liberalism … i.e. no rules at all. A free-for-all, where a bunch of thieves inside and outside of Russia were able to loot the country. 1950’s America was also ‘liberal capitalism’. At bottom it depends on the people who are in charge of the system and their character.
Friend of mine told me how children in Bosnia noticed NATO Soldier burying something in the ground. They continuously annoyed their parents to check it out until they finally gave in and started digging. They found snake eggs and spiders eggs. Not sure about the snake species but the spiders were Black Widows. Even Coyotes were sighted which are obviously not native to the region.
Black widows are native to the region.
Coyotes?
If there were any they are long gone barbecue
Black Widows = ISIS Brides/Widows
Coyotes = Zastava M02 Coyote Machine Gun
Both of which are abundant in Bosnia.
Coyote machine guns produced by Zastava Arms in Serbia and was recently involved in a huge scandal as it turned out that their Bulgarian customer was selling these guns to the Saudis who were then supplying them to ISIS.
I am surprised that any mention of a Russian expulsion from SWIFT would still fluster the Russian leadership when my understanding is that they have been preparing for this exact scenario, working with the Chinese to build an alternative payments system. The question then is, what stage has the Russian alternative system reached? A walkout by Russia would then be a short term disruption but a long-term gain for Russia.
Russia would be then entirely justified in cutting off supplies oil to the US – and indeed of rocket engines and all supplies of Titanium…i am sure there is even more that Russia can cut off… then there are all the imports of luxury brands…cut them off…
If the Brussels talk is true, NATO is figuring out what, if anything, will be left for them. Through diplomatic channels the Russians could let the eastern NATO countries know, up front, first hand, that if any of their soldiers join in the Ukie War Adventures, the command and control structures in those offending countries could be considered ligitimate targets. If they haven’t already.
Cheers, M
It would be a huge disruption for everyone, including the West. I’m not sure why trade, trade, trade is shouted as an unalloyed good these days. In the 1960’s and 70’s foreign trade was 6% of the US economy and people were doing just fine. Countries like America and Russia should actually encourage local production and limit the amount of trading they do. Smaller countries have to specialize more, and engage in more trade.
“Analyst” – good points you make about what Russia & China are doing in downsizing their entanglements of the US $. One of the top Economists in the World is Dr. Michael Hudson. He’s been working with the Chinese for some time to better develop the core parts of Chinese real estate and other foundational matters.
The general impression from Hudson, and sometimes Dr. Keen, is that it’s a very slow process these nations have to tread to ensure they aren’t walloped by the US/UK/EU capitalist approaches.
They are slowly weening their way from using the US $$$, but it simply takes time. Meaning, if the US wants to bar Russia from using SWIFT in the very near future, it will be pretty ugly.
Who knows? If the US does that, in what way might they jeopardize their own Hegemon?
Lastly……..we know the loudest, most vitriolic voices come from the US government. They are powerful, and very toxic towards Russia. Most of them are Jews.
The question is, do these folks in High Finance, like Larry Fink, of Black Rock; do they think similarly with the Washington crowd?
For decades, Russian political elite, even some people around Putin dreamed that in the end they would become “accepted” by the West. Expulsion from SWIFT is something that could wake them up.
What power the Russophobic propaganda exercises on western minds is illustrated by the trope that Russia is begging to be ‘accepted’ by the West against the glaring evidence to the contrary.
excuse me, who sang blueberry hill on stage in front of whom? it was charming and definetly not a sign of weakness, maybe a lil. too bad it wasnt accepted. maybe the hope was naive in the first place, true. but charming:))
Maybe THAT is the problem.
Russia WANTS to be accepted by the US Zionazi elite..
Here’s my question: WHY?
I mean Im an American xitizen and xan see how psychopathic and abusive the unelected globalist elite like Bill Gates, are an absolute MENACE to the US and it’s vassal.
Nothing and I mean NOTHING good comes from the US anymore. Our elite are irredeemably corrupt and incompetent. Why would anyone want anything to do with that? The US is 100% incapable of diplomacy..
why doesn’t Russia set up an alternative to NATO that all countries could join who are against the MIC agenda ?
It was called the Warsaw Pact.
That’s a remarkable perspective from Patrushev. He reveals a concise and deeply considered understanding of his world. He took very few words to demonstrate dynamics, options, red lines and policies.
And he’s completely clear-eyed about the bio-lab proliferation and the unusual occurrence of disease related to this. That’s a very tight piece of analysis that speaks volumes about a great deal of the world’s current hurt.
It’s a magisterial view. There aren’t many people who can tell it like it is, in such a way – quiet, yet final. I can well believe that when he talks to Washington, his points get across.
Many thanks to Pepe Escobar and Saker for this.
https://sputniknews.com/us/202104081082576034-us-def-sec-austin-leaves-10-april-for-overseas-trip-to-israel-germany-uk-nato-hq—-pentagon/
……The trip will also include the US European Command and US Africa Command headquarters in Germany to meet with US troops and senior commanders and “highlight his vision for security interests in the region.” During the course of the trip Austin will travel to Britain to meet with UK Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace to “reaffirm the importance of US-UK defense cooperation to meet global security challenges.”
Sounds like his side is getting ready for the battle…
Note China’s Xi personally and deliberately phones at this critical time the fastly fading Merkel …offering assistance or advice or a warning…?.virtually saying ….which side are you on…sorting out Minsk and Ukraine
? ….should you be rather thinking ofworld prosperity where Germany and EU can have a decisive part with Russia and China plus friends …..or….sticking with the losers….
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-04/07/c_139864970.htm
Lots of hidden coded messages there?
Plus yes China is asking exactly what are those biological bases for.
Should be the first to be targeted??????
The EU just signed a cooperation agreement with China a couple of months ago for economic development and trade and ALREADY the US is trying to sabotage this process. I’ve learned that these phone calls are meaningless without the action to back it up. Lets see how long and if the EU can actually trade and foster economic building with China..
I keep asking myself why the EU constantly acts against its own interests when it comes to the US. And all I can think is that the US ZIONAZIS may have blackmail on EU leaders
Will Merkel and Haas be able to resist the pressure being put upon it for N2? The German people WANT that pipeline because Russian gas is plentiful consistent and CHEAP. The US wants Israhell to build its pipeline to the EU and the US wants energy dominance and to sell its outrageously expensive and unreliable LNG.
Germany can play a pivotal role in how events unfold. If she acquiesce’s to the US and a major conflict breaks out in Europe then she will be yet another German leader who has played a key role in bringing war to the continent.
GerMoney is long gone as a mayor player
Merkel has, damaged Germany so much that it would take decades to reverse this
And for that a new political class would be required
And that new political class is nowhere to be seen
Well, at least some German politicians have class. Sahra Wagenknecht comes to mind, and then some.
Russian ‘steady as she goes’ diplomacy has come in for much criticism of late as Nato assets turn up the heat and becomes increasingly provocative, insultingly so, heaping tablespoons of hate into the mixing bowl. Many voices have been raised claiming that Russia’s ‘fair play’ posture indicates weakness in the face of fascism, which must rather be opposed with force. It is understood that Russian policy since late Soviet times has been oriented towards a restoration of Europe as it once was, a banquet where Russia had a seat at the table. Accordingly the judgement is vended that Russia pays too high a price to induce the Europeans to play nice with their Slavic neighbours. I think this reading of the international situation is rather mistaken, and mistaken in a characteristically Eurocentric way. I believe that the Russian leadership is indeed very concerned about it’s international image and is determined to stick to the strait and narrow regardless of provocations. Again, this is viewed as weakness in the face of European insults. This judgement proceeds on the assumption that what counts is Russia’s relation with Europe. This is doubtful. What counts more than this is Russia’s position vis a vis a large multitude of nations and states mainly in Asia. It is for them that Russia is committed to a posture of reliability, as a power that is as good as its word. This is not weakness. It signals rather ambition. Russians are not outsiders trying to get in to enjoy the warmth of belonging. That’s somebody else’s construct, as a moments reflection should make clear.
Whether Germany achieves a sufficient independence to gain the energy assets of NS2 or not will likely make a substantial difference in Europe but not Russia. If the Beltway strategy of maximum pressure succeeds in scuttling the pipeline the most likely outcome of this will be to sink Germany and quite possibly Europe as a whole. Already many commenters are expecting a serious economic crises in Europe. This will only hasten the process by blocking the only way forwards for European industry. So while the ideal outcome would be Russia in, America backed off, and Germany restored to independence, and therefore able to negotiate a new Eurasian deal, we will have a continued scenario of America in, Russia out and Europe down altogether. Otherwise put, the incompetently conceived strategy of maximum pressure is very likely to blow back and end by breaking up Europe. Here again we discern Western incapacity (re. Smoothie). They cannot calculate the consequences of their own actions. That requires intelligence. But as we see, ‘intelligence’ so call is completely invested in fashioning narratives. And that is all.
How then fares Russia? Aside from the hard to predict outcome of economic chaos, Russia remains committed to the building up of it’s new/old world order in partnership with the old civilisations of Asia. Europe can join in or go have a nice little breakdown. The former option enables them to bargain from what strengths they presently possess. In the latter case they will have the bargaining strength of surviving sailors at sea being rescued by the crew of a seaworthy ship. They’ll be grateful for life, a dry blanket, cup of tea and a hot meal. To conclude: it appears to me that Russian policy and diplomacy under Putin’s leadership has set a course that is consistent with the greatest aspirations of the Russian people. Regardless of threats of war in the Donbass or Syria or elsewhere, or economic calamities, or even a major war, the course already set is, I think, enlightened, above board, and genuinely practical. But all this said, I look forwards to the forthcoming speech President Putin will be making soon.
Otherwise this biolab business is a real concern. The Atlanticist’s don’t really have many arrows in their quiver. But this is one. Perhaps there are thermobaric solutions to this problem.
Many thanks for your analysis which seems to “hit the nail on the head” entirely. Which of two potential partners inspires trust: the calm, steady, reliable one moving forward or the hysterical, bug-eyed, needy but overbearing one stuck in the mud?
The facts are great. Unfortunately, the agenda is all that matters. Facts are in the way and have to be changed. It permeates the way we communicate. The more noise, the less facts matter.
Solutions matter. Russia must see the sun that rises in the east. Even Jesus comes from the east. There is only one reality that matters. Are the Chinese peoples living standards better than 50 years ago. I would say by in large yes. Russian and China can unite Europe and Asia. With the help of Iran, Asia and Europe can be united.
Each player has different assets. Together, they make a mighty whole. The only obstical is Afghanistan. This card must be played correctly. The US will fail though peace. The people in this war ravaged land have been abused enough. China must move in with as much money and opportunity as possible to buy peace. Once Peace comes to Afghanistan, the road is open. Not an easy task, but the most important task. America can not afford peace under Joe Bob.
Those of you that believe in the power of prayer should pray that God will deliver the people of Afghanistan, that they might live in peace.
Apologize to no one for what is right.
USA and UK malign imperialism must be destroyed. That’s it.
Only way to achieve normal world in which all nations would live normally and in which all problems could be solved.
You forgot somebody quite important
The masters of evil….
The answer to the other question is very simple. Give them the land God promised them. Make them live in that land and be a people unto God as he ordained. That way they can serve God in the land God gave them. This is the only way to stop them from poisoning the Gentiles. Walls can be used to keep people in as well as keep them out.
“Russia ‘would really not want’ Cold War 2.0”
The only problem is that the Anglo Americans desperately WANT a Cold War 2.0–despite their denials.
The question is why?
Just like Cold War 1.0, the Cold War 2.0 is about preventing the rise of an *alternative mode of development* to the Anglo American capitalist system–a capitalist system that increasingly is defined by financial chicanery, speculation, austerity measures, and parasitism from top to bottom.
This is called the Washington Consensus and American Dollar Imperialism.
Any nation that does not obey and assimilate into this malign system is an “enemy” that must be fanatically demonized.
Moreover, in terms of domestic policy, a Cold War 2.0 will have a salutary “rally around the flag” effect and be used to stifle any political discontent that arises in the Homeland itself.
As Randolph Bourne once stated, (Cold) War is the Health of the State.
@Anonymous
The US’s main problem is how it can prepare itself for the necessary reset of the monetary system, because it can only viably be reset if the US is able to believably fix the rate of increased deficit spending. In fact the world as a whole should aid this process, if it fails a breakup into two blocs hermetically sealed off from each other will most certainly occur.
One positive scenario could be if the republican parts of the US (the red States) overpower the gloated totally hollow progressive Cities, in that case the consolidation along nationalist lines would be possible.
The other is the fusion within the bloc of Europe and the US into a fascist SuperState heating up for the Big War to come.
The problem for the top first preferable scenario is there is no one to talk to in the current US-Administration which is in a state of narcistic tremor which can only talk to itself, atleast currently, the apparatus of delusions (the media propaganda blob) is now a deadly poison for it’s supposed masters.
Before my country USA defunds the police it should defund the MIC for sake of the world.
‘If that is established as a fact on the ground, a new harsh round of US sanctions will follow. Iron Curtain 2.0 would be in effect; pressure for cancelation of Nord Stream 2 would reach fever pitch’
Apparently Xi phoned Merkel on Wednesday. A full transcript was published in the official Chinese press and is read in full by Alexander Mercouris on his channel (link below). China makes it perfectly clear that for the past 4 years China has been Germany’s number one trading partner and would like that to continue. They also hope that the Germans and the EU conduct a policy of independence regarding trade and diplomacy.
That German industry needs China is clear and to pursue a policy of economic independence is paramount for its continuation.
What is not mentioned yet I feel is a major undercurrent is that the NS2 completion is the fulcrum of the German business plan going forward. In effect without this the Germany’s industrial power is in danger of stagantion.
The Chinese, in the conversation, realise that German industry cannot afford to ignore ‘international’ partners (without mention yet including Russia) if it wants to be a major player.
Mercuris later discusses this independence from a diplomatic point of view which he considered also very important.
In my opinion this telephone call encapuslates a reality in play second to none and should Germany follow the path outlined by China the EU and the world (excluding USA and UK) will follow a path of economic intergration that may economically prosper those who join and the people of those states.
That others, due to jealousy, may persue alternative activities is obviously a danger yet that is a situation that is deliberately avoided in the Chinese report that always focuses on the positive.
It would appear Merkel seemed welcoming to such views from the Chinese and stated she looked forward to more partnerships in the areas of commerce and technology.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IH-Kbbn-zY&ab_channel=AlexanderMercouris
It would appear all in all a remarkable and pivotal conversation!
Your points are very convincing, only the current climate in germany is exactly the opposite, the Atlantists are extremly strong, and one hardly reads a positive word about China in german MSM.
I don’t trust Merkel she is a pure Atlantist tool in my eyes and in there the Nazi-wing which has quite some power as with the CIA and the BND which is a pure Nazi outfit.
But we will see, whether the melody will change coming out of Berlin.
The transcript, made available so quickly, and in full, was for the digestion of the German industrial base. Merkel likes to sit on the fence, and was, as usual, very agreeable.
Mike and HDan thank you for your great comments. What of the importance of NS2 in the senario? Is it critical for German industrial development in the short term and does German industry see a future in Russian ties. I read today that Germany is going to purchase the Russian covid vaccine. I know little of German economic status yet if its number one trading partner is China (as is Australia) then surely a consideration is appropiate as it once was with the US.
Russian economy is recovering very well in very fast pace
Yes, they struggle with inflation and rise of food prices but they will stop that … until the end of this year they expect to return to GDP before COVID crisis and to stop inflation and to achieve certain GDP growth.
Till end of this year to stop spreading of pandemic and to finish NS2
And of course, Empire has to stop this … to stop this by all means. And Empire will do everything possible to stop Russian positive development
Russia must move away from Western payment systems and to move from anything that can be used as a tool against Russia
The Russian oligarchs keep most of their their ill gotten gains offshore in western banks, deposited as US dollars as an insurance policy against the day they are dethroned, and that might include Putin.
Therefore they are not going to voluntarily remove themselves from the US banker controlled SWIFT money transfer system.
Bosnian Croat
Thank you for your comments. I concur, especially with your last comment, and have a renewed worry re bio labs now. I had managed to bury my head in the sand on that one !
Wouldn’t it be marvelous if VVP were to announce in his upcoming address that …’as of 0800 tomorrow, the 22nd, Russia will no longer be using the SWIFT system ….’ and in my fairytale world Xi would simultaneously ………
“Dangerous scenarios are being openly discussed in Brussels corridors, especially
one that sees the US/NATO combo expecting a de facto partition after a short hot
war – with Novorossiya absorbing even Odessa.”
This, seems to me, would essentially replicate strategic situation after Poland’s defeat at the end of Sept 1939. At that point German Wehrmacht faced Red Army across boundary in Eastern Poland and begun preparation for Barbarossa.
This time, whatever partition line emerges in Ukraine, would bring NATO countries face to face with Russian Army. (3 Nato Baltic countries don’t really matter much) .This is not something leadership of RF wants, hence the label “dangerous scenario”.
The problem is not how to defeat Ukrainian army, the problem is to prevent any partition after defeat. So, status quo prevents partition. In case of war, and the quick defeat, as in Gruzia, RF has, I am confident, a number of options (scenarios) to prevent partition(s), at least unfavorable ones, and set up new governments and security arrangements like the ones in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, all within legalities of UN and current international law, whatever that may mean.
We shall soon find out which option is chosen and the speed to implement it. Speed is of essence here, as in Crimean referendum. I am quite optimistic that all these scenarios
have been thoroughly tested and retested for both speed, effectiveness, reduction of unwanted carnage, and international consequences. We have seen all these done in Syria.
I am beginning to smell a new and improved Nuremberg process.
Regards, Spiral
I am also optimistic. I don’t believe the Russians will allow this to spiral (pun intended) out of control.
In the Fulton speech Churchill praised Stalin, Truman did the same (praised Stalin in his introduction of Churchill that day). In no way was the Soviet Union declared an “enemy.” Anyone can listen to the Fulton speech on youtube. Big mistake to not listen personally to the speech. Yeah, he did say ‘iron curtain” but that was all. The effusive praising of Stalin from both that day put matters in the right context. And it wasn’t even a diplomatic type of praise. Stalin did not praise them like they praised him on that day. What can one say about this rather universal mistake (even found in school textbooks)? One of those things, I guess…
Russia is fiscally much too conservative. More money in Russia would be a big boost to their economy. Bragging about fiscal surpluses is wrong-headed. That is simply removing savings from their non-governmental sector. If Russia were to be disconnected from SWIFT I have no idea exactly what effect that would have on Russia and the World economy, but I hope Russia would be wise enough to print plenty of rubles to keep things going. The West may be doing too much of that, but Russia does too little.
The Russian oligarchs keep most of their their ill gotten gains offshore in western banks, deposited as US dollars as an insurance policy against the day they are dethroned, and that might include Putin.
Therefore they are not going to voluntarily remove themselves from the US banker controlled SWIFT money transfer system.
Overused narative that Russia is begging to be accepted in Land of Elves is just that.Narative
Fable made to paint Rusaians as men of low self esteem on top of other Hollywood stereotypes as being ugly, drunk brutes.
Nothing new, its just early part of way Anglos go to war. The fact than this early phase go on & on since forever, is due to lack of courage to finnaly come personaly to showdown. Like Hitler, or Napoleon did.
Then again, maybe it’s not about courage. It could be just common sense.
What Russia want from west is just fair trade, not some exclusive club membership.
West was able to go full flakey on every agreement for a long time. When they had monopoly on markets & credits plus largest military as guarantee that all contracts will be in their favor.
Not any more.
Today, only absolute dominance remains in the realm of IT. Which covers social networks and SWIFT among other things.
As we all know, the Force of social neworks can have strong influence on weak minded.
Russia lags in that area and must learn quickly how to counter before completion of internet satellite swarms. (Like Starlink) After that, brute force shutting down portions of internet will be obsolete.
(Completely different problem is possibility to run weaponized drone swarms anywhere on the planet, but that is another topic.)
Problem with SWIFT replacement is in the fact that banking system must be securely encrypted on both ends. Systems made on top of western chips and software (including compilers) are NOT safe. Period.
Russia and China must produce completely new hardware and software solutions from scratch. Or be robbed constantly, first from NSA, then soon enough from every hacker around the world.
Such task is insanely expensive.
West has decades to come to this place gradualy, Russia have not.
I really hope Russia have enough smart IT nerds who are not instagramized and on the level of those geniuses that solved hypersonic puzzle against all odds.
The software part is easy enough and doesn’t need to be expensive at all. The RF can legally use the open source and/or free-software solutions as in BSD unix-es and GNU/Linux in any combination.
Many Russians are already cooperating in BSD and GNU/Linux maintenance and development, and the open source of kernel and userland software, not to forget their open source development tools including mentioned compilers make it possible to develop totally save software at very low cost. Most software is readily available now and in Russian language versions and would just need some extra auditing of the source code to check for backdoors and other malware.
You have to remember that the USA was driven into all the wars of this century, not by reasoned discourse and careful planning, but by the false-flag attacks of 9/11. The neocon, Project for the New American Century (PNAC), predicted in their manifesto just before the 2000 election that the shift to US world hegemony in the 21st century would come about slowly unless there was “some catastrophic and catalyzing event, like a new Pearl Harbor.” That event, of course, was 9/11. That false-flag attack, blamed on the Arabs, was the pretext for all the wars of this century.
To paraphrase Hermann Goering, most people don’t want war, neither in Russia nor in America. What must be done is tell them they’re being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, exposing the country to danger. We’ll be driven into a war with Russia by another catastrophic and catalyzing false-flag attack, this time blamed on the Russians. Will Americans fall into line just as they did after 9/11? That’s the big question. Many of us won’t.
Saturday Stand-down.
The Ukies sending messages that they really don’t want war.
So far, the US has sent no similar message.
The Russians keep demonstrating that they have plenty of military to handle anything the US or NATO want to throw into the “war”.
The US has bet with itself that it can burn the Ukie military and still hold Kiev.
Hedging that bet means the US knows it will lose Kiev.
So, we shall see what happens between now and the NS-2 is completed and what, if anything, Putin says on April 21. His speech to Russian Security Council could be the last word.
Never forget that the #1 motivation for Ukie action is for the principal actors in Kiev to steal the wealth, be it loans or assets of the nation. The war controls the Ukie citizens who otherwise would be outside the doors of government with torches, pitchforks and ropes.
And for Biden and the corrupt US government, war is a distraction if the money laundering that goes on through Kiev is interrupted (or lost forever).
The Russophobes will always have Ukraine if they don’t piss it away.
Meanwhile, they have Russia mired in Syria with the US determination to create a quagmire out of Idlib.
Idlib has been going on for near two years. It’s been in neutral for one year. Russia has to find a strategy and tactics to take all of Idlib and the border with Turkey.
The US is counting on bleeding Russia for the next 4 years. Endless war is in its second decade in Syria.
So, not winning in Ukraine, not baiting Russia to invade, well, that’s okay for now.
There is always another day, another time to try it again. Meanwhile, Ukraine is a captive nation dying. And no one could care less.
Meanwhile the US are only bleeding themselves…
Patrushev’s convo with Sullivan in the end of March jives with the US informing Turkey that US warships would transit the Bosporus to the Black Sea. I bet Sullivan alerted and reassured Patrushev about this operation. Russia now knows From Sullivan that those ships will not strike in Donbas, and the US knows from Russia that them ships ain’t gettin sunk.
That Russia does not want a new cold war is now ruled out. But that left a chilling second option on the table: that Russia will welcome a ‘hot’ war.
That is something for the US to mull over.