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Saker Message:
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When the talking stops, the shooting begins.
In that light the outcome was positive for now. They are still talking and no options are off the table for Russia. Time remains on the side of Zone B.
“Never, Ever”
The redline profoundly stated.
“Ukraine and Georgia will never, ever join NATO.”
“Deadly wrong to use the Bucharest Memorandum.”
How glowing hot the red line is spoken of, that it is white hot!
Before his “never, ever” redline, he said that “military” methods would have to be used against NATO and US “weapons systems”, methods which would “damage” US and European security.
I hope that the Russians are beginning to realize that the US-NATO is operating like psychopaths.
You can’t argue and come to an agreement with a Psychopath.
The only thing that will stop a psychopath is severe consequences.
My advice to the Russian negotiators are:
Don’t Argue – State your terms – set the reed lines – Leave the meeting.
Then proclaim publically – in English – in layman’s terms – without babble – just the facts of what Russia’s positions and red lines are. Then go home and prepare to take firm action.
The western leaders are running a hidden agenda toward its own population, just as they are running a hidden agenda toward Russia. Russia must involve the western populations, otherwise the western population will be dragged into a war they don’t want, and one they have never dreamt would ever happen.
A lot of people in the west realize the seriousness of this matter, and are already seeking information from Russia as to what is going on. But most people will not get the seriousness of the matter when the Russian spokesman is not able to speak English, and are using diplomatic terms.
A translator voice makes more harm than good, when the words coming from the negotiator are delivered from a baby face with a smile. The direct words (in languish the receiver can understand) and a serious mimic form the person talking are the absolute best way to covey the message.
Russia needs to up its PR into the 21 century, in order to reach the global population, of which 50% are female voters who don’t know shit about military, war or diplomacy.
Western leaders have been using this type of PR for decades. It’s called information war.
If Russia loses the information war we will get into real war.
If you are my enemy and you come and sit on my door steps with a Gun. Should I inform the neighborhood or complain to them about you although I have a guns of my own.
For the US and allies to destroy Iraq, the US lied telling the world that Saddam had WMD. Then, after the destruction they said that they had wrong reports. What a laugh. Then, they said, ‘we are an exceptional nation’. Now, the time has come to expunge that exceptional nation bringing them to ground like a wounded eagle.
See article in Avia.Pro titled, “Russia intends to deploy missiles in Cuba and Venezuela”.
I fully share your frustration.
However, this situations is not just “You and me” pointing guns at each other.
An open conflict between Russia and its allies VS NATO risks being worse than WWII, with every major city in Europe turned into ruble, and large parts of the continent being inhabitable.
A large part of the western voters have given a mandate to psychopathic western leaders, without realizing that their leaders real agenda is war with Russia for global domination.
The Germans before WWII trusted the same type of leaders.
The western public must be informed of the consequences of their leader’s action, or we risk a new world war.
Generally, true but I have arrive at the conclusion that WW II and possible even WW I was created by certain actors. The First was engineered by the British Empire. The Second was created by American and British Corporate interest as Prescott Bush was one American Banker who subsidized the Nazis. They were numerous Americans cooperation who help Hitler Nazis as IBM, Ford, Dow Chemicals, Coca Cola, Chase Manhattan Bank, Brown Brothers Harriman, Woolworth, GM etc. (See Web article titled “Top 10 American Companies that Aided teh Nazis”
Plus, there is evidence that Hitler was personally groomed by certain Americans. The situation now is no different as it is known the Rothchilds owns about 27 US$ Trillion and are associated with Klaus Schwab and his ‘Great Reset Project’ which is destined to fail ‘hopefully’ soon.
P.S. I omitted to mention that the object of both wars were to destroy Russia and Germany. At the end of WW II Churchill destroyed the most beautiful city Dresden for SPITE. An attempt was also made by the British/American to invaded Russia at the end of WW II.
@ 1Beak1
I have arrived at almost the same conclusions as you.
Except that I believe the core is formed by Fascist dynasties.
Cheers.
BTW: in my former post the word (inhabitable) should of course be (uninhabitable).
Just run in to this article of interest written by Finian Cunningham titled, “Why Russia Is Ready to Check-Mate the U.S and Its Western Empire”.
WWIII has been running for thirty years now, not counting the Cold War era. The same roles were given to ethnic groups in the region of Serbia and Russia. With the same tasks and the same roles. With the same reaction to the offered alliance. Please study the Second World War, who was on which side and compare it with today’s situation. The Poles play as then as the Romanians do. The Czechs and Slovaks are behaving the same, waiting to see which side will prevail, and then change their coats a few days before the decision. They are not heroes to die. All players in the Balkans behave the same. It is only Hungary that shows a different face. Hopefully. Why is all this happening? Because when it was needed, the job was not done. If this time is not over, we will have the fourth Hollywood premiere in a new generation. Running away from the truth and from reality leaving children and grandchildren to deal with the same situation again is nothing else then…..cowardice. But the truth remains if one wants to see it. In war-blacks kill, in peace-reds forgive murderers and force the victors to live with them, giving the defeated absolutely the same rights. The black-and-red international that serves to the top of the pyramid.
100 percent right. I can’t understand why the russians are not catching this.
Actually, they do. They just couldn’t do anything about it.
Untill now.
Importantíssimo o ponto que vc levanta. Pois essa é uma questão que eu sempre comendo aqui. A Rússia não consegue construir uma narrativa a altura das duas necessidades como potência. O ocidente e boa parte do mundo não sabe o que está acontecendo na ucrânia por que a mídia quadrilheira ocidental conseguiu construir uma muralha de mentiras. Eu vejo isso todo o dia onde estou. Operadores de mídia, verdadeiros genocidas, mentindo descaradamente para provocar uma guerra. Em algum momento esses tipos terão que ser acusados por crimes de guerra como qualquer genocida do campo de batalha. Temos que começar a construir essa lógica pois o ocidente começa suas guerras criando o ambiente propício através da mídia. Qualquer um desses operadores precisa ser sentado no banco dos réus num julgamento por crimes de guerra. O editor do New York times deveria ser enforcado por crime de guerra por continuar mentindo sobre armas de destruição de massa do Iraque quando o próprio serviço secreto dos EUA já tinha negado sua existência. O mesmo vale para Elliot Higgins do belincat por dar cobertura midiática aos terroristas que fizeram os ataques químicos na Síria. Essa discussão que temos aqui é para poucos. Eu sempre parto do princípio que a massa é burra e incapaz de pensar pela própria cabeça. Por isso a necessidade de uma narrativa eficaz. Por não ter isso a Rússia infelizmente terá que usar as armas quando poderia simplesmente exibi-las.
Translation. Mod:
Very important the point that you raise. Because that’s an issue I always eat here. Russia cannot build a narrative at the height of both needs as a power. The West and much of the world does not know what is happening in Ukraine because the Western media has managed to build a wall of lies. I see it all day where I am. Media operators, true genocidal, blatantly lying to provoke a war. At some point these guys will have to be charged with war crimes like any genocidal on the battlefield. We have to start building this logic because the West begins its wars by creating the environment conducive through the media. Any of these operators needs to be sitting in the dock in a war crimes trial. The editor of the New York Times should be hanged for war crimes for continuing to lie about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction when the U.S. secret service itself had already denied its existence. The same goes for Elliot Higgins of belincat for giving media coverage to the terrorists who carried out the chemical attacks in Syria. This discussion we have here is for a few. I always assume that the mass is dumb and unable to think by its own head. That is why the need for an effective narrative. By not having this Russia will unfortunately have to use the weapons when it could simply display them.
Wendy Sherman “suggested that the US could alter its placement of missiles in Europe to better accommodate Russian security concerns”, according to RT. If she means missiles in Poland and Romania, it would logically mean that the issue of NATO expansion can be kicked down the road as the saying goes, because If she understand the issue of those missiles she also understands the issue of NATO expansion as a “security concern” for Russia. No one asked, in Putin’s annual press conference, if Romania and Poland are practically as “close” as Ukraine is in his consideration. They appear to be that close since the removal of those missiles has been called a “demand.” In the proposal to NATO there is the great clause that says the two parties will not be “adversaries” anymore. If the West agrees to that clause, hard not to, it will be a grandiose agreement. I agree with the Russian FM’s statement today that the two proposals are something different from the past. They are something special for diplomacy. (Their brevity and wide scope also seem to say let’s not be adversaries anymore.)
Much like Lavrov, this guy’s mustard (hot).
It’s obvious these Russian diplomats are chosen on merit. unlike empty suits like Blinken who sit there reading from a predetermined script full of cliches or US Ambassadors who bid the highest for their postings.
They’re going to run out this week, go to the next two meetings, and do what is to be done then. They are giving much rope and this will hang somebody! This Ryabkov has a friendly babyface. He is very friendly, but underneath is all steel.
There is no quarter being given, not a milimeter.
Russians don’t view these talks as anything more than symbolism. USA sent a nobody to do the talking, that’s how much it means to them.
So Lavrov tossed the coin to his deputy. I fear that war is almost inevitable now.
allegedly Ryabkov said to Russian media yesterday NATO should pack their shit up (“собирать манатки”) and mive out to 1997 lines.
Now NATO has a binary option, to do slam the door andhit the road, or to sit firm and show the finger.
The NATO we know would choose finger.
Then Russia would have her binary option to swallow it or to put her fists where her mouth was.
Frankly, that all sounds me like a wannabe bouncer daring an old bouncer. There have to be some ritual verbiage, but those only have to be spoken out if fists are ready, and they both know it.
Are Russia’s fists?
Are NATO’s?
i don’t see this as a coin toss on lavrov’s part…rybakov is perfect to interchange with the press & sherman. he responds in fluent english, answers the question in full, i’m sure shockingly so for the journalist—i don’t think the american reporters have ever had such a clear on point response—a complete history lesson in a sentence. our press are accustomed to smoke & mirrors. rybakov is like staring into a gun & realizing it is loaded. imo lavrov chose him precisely b/c of this.
I sure hope you are right.
But I don’t believe anyone in the MSM is capable of understanding a complex sentence, however clear it sounds. Let alone offer an answer.
And for any meaningful discussion, you need complex sentences.
They sent a more junior staff member / deputy/ so that no commitments can be signed off during the talks.
The US confirned, that for them, these talks are merely “exploratory”.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/08/us-says-no-firm-commitment-ahead-of-security-talks-with-russia.html
Let’s hope and pray it’s just a negotiation tactic, and that there will be an agreement shortly after the meeting.
I think Sherman is of the same rank as Ryabkov.
Yeah, she’s brilliant, must be, having worked under Clinton, Madeleine Albright , Obama, even that criminal ponzi enterprise Fannie Mae. She knows the A-Z of sociopaths.
This is what I was getting at in the other threads when stating what Western assets Moscow must be prepared to destroy; it was not cheerleading for war. Like an immature schoolyard bully NATO leadership can only learn through violence successfully applied against NATO, before that NATO leaders will never have respect for Russian leadership.
Also like I wrote in other threads, I believe this week’s meetings will only buy some time before an inevitable military confrontation. As always I will be happy to be proven wrong.
Even if, by some miracle, Uncle Scam signs a genuine peace treaty with Moscow, NATO will turn its attention to “disciplining the disobedient slant eyes.” In keeping with its modus operandi of tarnishing special holidays & events, NATO will most likely provoke incidents on or around:
*1st February 2022 (Chinese New Year,)
*4th February 2022 (Olympic opening ceremonies)
*20th February 2022 (Olympic closing ceremonies)
Dear amarynth,
Here is a picture of a “friendly baby face” qualification for all Russian diplomats that have to deal with the scurrilous U.S.
See: https://i.pinimg.com/originals/42/a2/cb/42a2cbc1b08718ba66796982ef661fc1.jpg
I think he is what is called a ‘Diplomat’ par excellence. He was quiet, unemotional, rational, profound, adroit in all his responses especially when he said, that Ukraine and Georgia Will Not be joining NATO.
The issue now in the next meeting with NATO he will be repeating that statement and NATO can do what-ever it want and that must be War or YIELD to Power now or later.
If Russians already decided what has to be done, they wouldn’t send top negotiator. They would send someone who can read opponent like a book.
This guy, Ryabkov, his job is not to negotiate but to judge how hard is necessary to slap NATO to bring it to its senses. Only then diplomacy might have a chance.
@amarynth
‘This Ryabkov has a friendly babyface.’
From a personal perspective perhaps, another will see high intelligence and humanity in his countenance, and that he may perhaps bear the burden of weight, in more ways than one, is also no more than a matter of dignity.
Also, for Zone A the existential threat is from China. They would not want to get distracted and bogged down militarily in Europe. They need desperately to derail China.
So my guess is they will try to de-escalate without giving up too much to Russia or losing too much face.
Military gaps can potentially be narrowed over time. Leaders grow old and color revolutions can be saved for another day. But with China in the next 5-10 years, it will be game over for Empire.
I was born during a war 1952. Been continuing war ever since. The only thing that is guaranteed, is I die during another war. Wonder if humanity also dies on the same day? When no one is left to weep then nothing ever existed.
“They need desperately to derail China.”
Paradoxically, it looks as if Russia has been acting (in part) to protect Olimpic ceremonies from the gangster ZUSA’s nasty surprises.
So sad that the allegedly European people (US/UK) have descended to a state of Talmudic dishonesty and “everything goes” to protect Banksters’ and MIC’s interests.
There are obviously certain people at the ZUSA’s wheel – the owners – who have no qualm about destroying the lives of a few million innocent human beings. The time is out of joint for western civilization.
so Putin is doing a favour for his friend Mr Xi with this little charade eh? Keep the US guessing, keep them absorbed, keep them on their toes. China needs time. Are the US going to sacrifice washington or Langley or New York for Kiev? No they arent and the Russians are offering them this exchange because they can in conventional terms do this and the US has no reply unless it wants a full war with Russia which it does not. A lot of bluffs being called but the message is being sent “we can hit you at home and you cannot stop it” There is a lot more going on behind the scenes. What happens after the talks may be more important than what is going on here I think … maybe we get a deal, maybe we don’t but the future is being set now, make sure the Americans understand what is at stake. As General Milley said himself 100,000 dead troops in the first week of war with Russia 30 to 40,000 every week thereafter. Are the American people willing to take these losses for a bunch of Nazis in Kiev. I think not.
Why isn’t Lavrov leading these talks? Why aren’t Russians sending their best if they mean bussines?
The most logical answer I can think of is that the Russians know how meaningless these talks are. Shooting war can start any moment now.
The Americans sent a social worker masquerading as a diplomat. Why bother when that’s the best they can do?
Tells you all you need to know. These talks are a farce, Russian military must be on standby to make a move. As Putin said:
“When a conflict is inevitable, the best you can do is to strike first, hard.”
Split the Ukraine in two, along the river Dnjepr.
Ryabkov is right up there with Lavrov in competence .He is also known as a bruiser negotiator….possibly a better person to send when your demands are so bald and unequivocal. Lavrov might be uncomfortable being so blunt.
Putin and Biden set the level of representative to these talks.
The US does not want Blinken in the ring with Lavrov. That would be a massacre. Blinken couldn’t handle the Chinese in Alaska. Lavrov would make him cry and wet his pants.
Thus, Sherman is next in line, so Ryabkov matches up level wise, but in terms of “class”, this is a pathetic political hack from Foggy Bottom versus what would be a four star general if diplomats wore them for the Russian. They added real three-star generals to each team because Sherman alone could not handle the issues which are really pure military issues (missiles, missile launchers, flight time, distances to targets).
Listening to Ryabkov speak in English, you get the idea that his competence on the issues left Sherman in Wonderland, delirious with the dominance of the Russian position, likely hallucinating after eight hours with the Russian.
We can imagine her ideological chants as her only reply. Good reason why last night Ryabkov labelled the American response as “stunning, amazing”. His reference was how the American side doesn’t understand the gravity of the Russian demands and the consequences.
Yes, not like “We examined the 5 year old kindergarten entrants on general knowledge and discovered many of them could already solve complex non-linear partial differential equations….stunning….amazing…”
More like “We examined the university entrants and discovered many of them didn’t even know the world was round, or that the sun was the centre of the solar system……stunning….amazing…”
In their match against the Detroit Lions yesterday, the Green bay Packers fielded Jason Love as quarterback rather than Aaron Rogers. They lost the match narrowly.
However Jason Love got some invaluable experience at top level. And the Packers qualify for the playoffs regardless of the result of that final game.
Even conceding that Mr Lavrov may be an even better diplomat than Mr Ryabkov (which I don’t), these talks don’t really demand mr Lavrov’s skill and experience. Their outcome is pretty much a foregone conclusion.
I suspect that we will see the realisation of the saying, “Those who will not deal with Lavrov must deal with Shoigu”.
They won’t like it.
Lavrov vs Blinken / Kerry / Hillary / —- is all the same – no match for speed/ logic / alternatives thrown on the table for discussion and no agreement capable after the fact.
The uSA first line team is no team
The talks are at a deputy foreign minister level and only “exploratory.” In diplomacy, officers of equal status generally interact and if some agreement is reached then they move up to the foreign minister level and then to the head of state level -if an agreement is reached in principle. That is how classical diplomatic interaction framework has operated since the last few centuries.
On Deescalation.
Deescalation is on the West, they used the fall of the Soviet Union to expand and encircle Russia, under the pretext that “every country is free to decide on their security.” The West has no moral authority to ask for “deescalation” from Russia. Once they go back to the status quo ante, 1997, a conversation on deescalation can start on a level field.
The message has been given, loud and clear. Ryabkov was no so hopeful the “Western partners” are getting it. Two more rounds to go, then a new reality will be created. As Ryabkov pointed out, “Nobody can predict what the future will be.” Let’s continue to hope for the best…
Lone Wolf
……Once they go back to the status quo ante, 1997, a conversation on deescalation can start on a level field.
This is a utopia of what you write. That will never happen in peace time. Russia does not need a war with Europe. It needs a quick solution for Ukraine and possibly the Baltics, if the Anglo-Americans dare to take action, that will be the place to start. The Arctic is as closed as the south and east. Russia can get everything on the plate, If it is wise.
a minor point
TASS:Ukraine’s Ambassador to Germany Andrei Melnik said that Kiev expected Berlin to sell defensive weapons since Germany was allegedly morally responsible for the future of Ukraine. Otherwise, he threatened “serious consequences in bilateral relations.”
Germany is not supplying weapons to the countries where military conflicts are underway. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said during a recent trip to Washington that the stances of Germany and the US on that issue were different. Washington provides military assistance to Kiev.”
A difference then. But only not to get involved further or let USA act on their behalf perhaps.But probably not enough to influence USA or the political viewpoint of EU? So if no agreement possible…could”sustaining” Ukraine in military conflict prevent Nato membership?
Which is easily disproved by German exports to Saudi-Arabia, Israel and Turkey. All which are involved in one war or another.
This TASS dépêche is indeed a curious piece of news. Two things: anyone else noticed that the Germans puzzled out the request for “defensive” weapons from Kiev as one relating to the reconquista of Donbas? The not-so-subtle hint here is that Germany does not believe there is danger to Ukraine from the reputed 100,000 bloodthirsty Moskalis across the border. Second, Malik actually threatening Baerbock with “consequences” is a real eyebrow raiser. For sheer idiocy it competes well with Saakashvii’s denouncing later US cowardice for his own botched outings in 8/8/8. (He did that in the presence of Condolezza Rice).
well, they both have a perfect prior art: the infamous “England, it’s your deed!” plackards demoed all over Poland in 1939, i wonder if there were any on display in London 1939 though
https://rex-net.livejournal.com/2661901.html
Ukraine’s Ambassador to Germany Andrei Melnik said that Kiev expected Berlin to sell defensive weapons since Germany was allegedly morally responsible for the future of Ukraine.
Wow! Talk about chutzpah (as in ‘insolence’).
Germany should just approve NS2 next week then since it can’t supply Ukraine with weapons for lack of gas to manufacture them. Since it is to Ukraine’s benefit, it should support Germany’s decision re NS2.
Otherwise, he threatened “serious consequences in bilateral relations.”
ROTFL.
—-
Thanks for this little gem JJ. God knows we can do with some light entertainment.
In my view, shipping weapons to Ukraine by any one is simply going to raise the probability that Russia decides to take out Ukraine.
Most of the weapons shipped so far are irrelevant. A few Javelins or Stingers aren’t going to alter the outcome of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, or even necessarily cause more casualties for Russia than they’re willing to accept. And shipments of any more serious weapons is likely to result in Russia taking them out unilaterally.
The problem for Ukraine is that it can’t keep half its army in trenches on the contact line forever. They’ve already been there a frickin’ year. They’re demoralized and their combat capability is going down by the day. Ukraine either has to make a move and soon, or they’re going to have to continually rotate those forces out. If they continue to rotate forces, then they’re doing nothing to reduce Russia’s suspicion that Ukraine intends to start a new offensive.
Since Russia is not giving the West a lot of time to resolve this situation, this means that either Ukraine has to move on Donbass soon or Russia will take Ukraine off the table unilaterally. This situation is what is called a “flash burn” (although it has gone on for a year), and it can’t go on forever.
NATO technically is not supposed to take on countries with serious internal divisions. Of course, that consideration really isn’t involved because the West wants Ukraine and Georgia in NATO so they can put military forces on Russia’s borders. So they’re going to ignore that requirement.
Theoretically the status quo could continue for more years. But I don’t think Russia is willing to let this drag on for another seven years. But the issue is whether Russia would act unilaterally – or simply wait for the inevitable CIA/neocon escalation. Because the same problem exists for the CIA and the neocons – dragging out the status quo doesn’t give them what they want – a war between Ukraine and Russia.
So this has to end. The only question is whether it’s this year or next or how many years both sides want to let this drag on when there is a simple solution to it: take Ukraine off the table, either by agreeing to Russia’s demands – or Russia does it unilaterally. Russia would prefer the former, but I don’t see them getting it.
The U.S. is not only ‘not agreement capable’, they are incapable of approaching an agreement.
Ryabkov shows the same kind of professionalism that Lavrov epitomizes. Putin and his crew have cultivated the world’s foremost foreign ministry. After the CSTO deployment, it appears that the same standards have been achieved in the intelligence and military fields.
Russia is so confident in its correct approach that we get a diplomat going full disclosure live stream immediately after the meetings.
There were no spins or deflections. Straight words, clearly the same Sherman heard.
The US is left with calling Russia’s hand.
You can bet the NATO meeting will be more of the same. Brussels thinks Russia is bluffing.
They want Russia to back off Ukraine before anything is addressed regarding Russia’s security concerns.
I would suggest this: The Russian troops will back up the exact equivalent to the Ukie heavy equipment retreat from the contact zone in Donbass (following the Minsk 2 Accords which mandates 75 kilometers from the contact zone.)
They want movement, get the Ukies to move.
And if they don’t move, Mr. Kalibr, Tor and Tos will get them to move.
I’d give them 48 hours to do so.
NATO is hiding behind the Ukies. They fear not having a depth of cannon fodder in front of them.
Russia is calling their bluff, not the other way around.
In my opinion the different media treatmen combined with the thorough response in Kasachstan represents the “new” Russian MO. I really hope that US/NATO can come to their senses and see the situation as what it is:
“Not one step further, and tbh we would really appreciate (as in not potentially elmininate your forward rocket bases) if you also took several steps back.”
As an east German I find this situation baffling and very worrisome.
I have a saying that can be equally applied to the Donbass situation.
As a Scot, on my mother’s side, I am very fond of my ‘Geordie’ (born Newcastle, Northeast England ) friends, not so much my Southern, particularly London acquaintances.
I tell them to their face that a Geordie is a Scot with his head kicked in.
OK, so the Americans have filled the Ukrainians head full of hubris, bravado, nonsense. Furthermore, the vast majority of Russians & Ukrainians look upon each other historically with a fondness.
Therefore, my own observation, which could be wrong is that Ukrainians are Russians with their heads kicked in.
Brilliant analogy!
In a Film “Escape from Bialystok” based on real events, the jews discover the reality of their situation and it is only when the Russian Prisoners of War are also interned that some real organisation takes place, to mount an escape. Sasha, the hero of the story, is a Russian soldier who organizes everyone to collect information and he points out that 600 prisoners have a good chance to escape, relative to the extremely low number of guards (Western Ukrainians). His comment was to the effect that the Russians know the Ukrainians have no brains…the breakout was a ‘success’ in enabling 300 prisoners to escape. The tone of the film emphasised that without the Russian presence, the jews would have had no chance…
A surprisingly nuanced Western opinion I heard today, is that the West knows that Russia doesn’t really expect anything from these talks, and that they are just giving themselves a pretext for a military pushback around their periphery. That might explain the note of nervousness I sense around the Western camp
USA’s “offer” (reducing the scope and size of military exercises in eastern Europe is an insult. Let’s be clear there are no real negotiations going on. Nor will there ever be other than negotiating about how the USA can save face.
Larchmonter,
So given the nature of the talks, NATO will be the Good cop to US bad cop.
They will offer arms control with the caveat that NATO must have access to Russian iskander sites, to verify that those missiles are short ranged.
So if the US is not budging, and only offering token promises of arms control, with no security guarantees, and NATO presence in Ukraine all but guaranteed,
How should Russia proceed in revealing its hand? Is it an outright strike on Ukrainian weapons sites, with destruction of NATO bases in Ukraine?
@Arkhanghelsk
I don’t know what else Russia can do to “convince” NATO and US that a 500km sphere of secure neutral space is required.
The Russians have built a military to secure that space if diplomacy or economics doesn’t work.
The EU spits on natural gas (economics) and the US spits on diplomacy.
I’d give the Minsk 2/UNSC endorsed imperatives a go.
48 hrs to move the artillery and tanks back in return for backward stationing of the “invasion forces” which are already 200km from the border.
If the Ukies don’t move from the contact zone and go back to 75km where Minsk 2 indicates, I’d blow them to pieces with missiles and armed drones. If NATO lost its advisers so much the better, and/or tried anything within Ukie borders, I’d blow them away also.
The West learns slowly and only kinetic impact like Iran used convinces them to move.
Russia has no choice. The near-abroad has to become a safe zone.
Russia doesn’t have to budge forward an inch in order to get the result it wants. That’s what missiles and drones are for.
The West cannot afford a small war with Russia. The West doesn’t want to lose Ukraine.
But they won’t mind losing some of Ukies’ tanks and artillery and a few hundred cannon fodder if that proves Russians mean what they say. Then they can sanction the hell out of the Russians and win another Infowar demonizing Putin and the Russkies.
The West won’t get the invasion they hope for. But they will get most of what they want–Enmity against Russia by the Western world and draconian sanctions.
The good part is very little Russian blood is at risk.
But with 4000-8000 US and NATO troops in the Ukie ranks advising and leading them, I expect several Ukie friends will be turned to ashes. That’s their cost.
Ukraine has to be neutralized and diplomacy doesn’t look like the route to accomplish that goal.
The western world as a whole no longer matters to Russia, although it does value its relations with the few enlightened EU nations. What no one has mentioned is that to accomplish its National Goals, Russia needs peace, and Putin is also deeply concerned about Russia’s demographics. The trick is for him to accomplish his security goals without having to resort to war–even a very limited evisceration of Ukraine. That’s why the significance of Kazakhstan–too few aren’t seeing it as a military technical response to western aggression which is precisely what it was. Putin enticed the Outlaw US Empire to engage in Color Revolution tactics that were known ahead of time and gamed. Now every sleeper cell throughout the former Soviet space will be on the run and the remaining internal threat will be dealt with via the political-economy of people-centered development.
Is Donbass the main concern, though. Sure, if the Ukies attack, Russia will stop that in its tracks without crossing the border. But Russia is throwing down ultimatums and threats of force about bigger issues: NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia, missile defense, intermediate range missiles, future hypersonic deployments, and equal security gaurentees.
Russia says it won’t invade Ukraine, because it doesn’t want or have to.
So what is the next military technical step? Is it strikes on missile defense bases in Romania and Poland. Is it missile deployment near the US mainland? Or what? Smashing the Ukies in the absence of a Ukie provocation doesn’t seem logical to achieving the bigger issues. Would like your thoughts.
I did not read from any source that Russia demanded as a condition of attending the two U.S. NATO meetings that all movement or repositioning of military assets into or around the Black Sea region including air, land and sea exercises be suspended for as long as negotiations are ongoing.
Otherwise U.S.NATO can stall for time, (which undoubtedly they will) and continue to assess the variety of tactical scenarios while feigning to be open to discussions.
Tass has provided a short summary of the January 10 meeting.
See: https://tass.com/world/1385381
From the U.S. side, DSS (Deputy Secretary of State) Wendy Sherman made a general statement that nations have the right to choose alliances as they see fit but she begged off discussing European security (Ukraine implied) without NATO’s involvement. So the diplomatic ball has been passed to the January 12 meeting with Stoltensberg.
Russia’s proposals (U.S. Treaty, NATO Agreement) are not going to gain any traction because the U.S. side has no incentive to act congenial. How long will President Putin continue to watch the circus before taking some concrete, persuasive action to motivate them; a month, two months, etc.?
I have an off-topic question that is somewhat related to this potential military conflict.
EW (Electronic Warfare) can disrupt land, air and surface and undersea communications but does that apply to space orbiting satellites too?
In other words, rather than destroying a military satellite kinetically with a “killer satellite”, can the target satellite’s transmitting/receiving capabilities be interfered with using EW such that it temporarily renders it useless?
I think that would be a good way to send a message.
GPS satellites are blocked regularly. All the signals and stationary positions are susceptible to EW.
Kinetics is saved for the real time combat.
Maybe I am wrong but my guess is: Exactly this message is already sent.
Have a look here:
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2022/01/disruption-one-two-undersea-optical-cables-svalbard
Trust me – these kind or cables are made for eternity – no chance that without any (very) compelling reason one of these went out of order.
More than 100 commercial satellites controlled via the Svalbard link …. That‘s a lot. And I am pretty sure that not only commercial satellites are controlled via this link.
Just a guess … ;-)
That’s the 2nd case of this class in the Barent Sea within the last 6 months or so. In the first event the Norwegians lost large parts of their sonar-buoy-network for the Barent Sea – only some weeks prior of the Poseidon tests the RF Navy startet. To be honest – the connection was not only interrupted – the cable vanished on a length of at least 1000m or more.
Barent Observer had a short news flash on that event as well. Some month ago.
So I guess, the messages were sent …. Very clearly sent.
Strangely the SWIFT system also relies on cables such as these. A cyber attack on the West’s financial system was the subject of wargames in Israel about a month ago.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/exclusive-imf-10-countries-simulate-cyber-attack-global-financial-system-2021-12-09/
The cyber security of the SWIFT system was much discussed.
A while back, Sweden was very left wing and this was a major concern to NATO…so there were reports that an undersea tractor was operating off the coast of Sweden and it was suspected to be a Russian one…This created all manner of hysterics in Sweden…and a change in their government (the last time i was there on business, it was totalitarian compared to the easygoing cheerful place i remember as a teenager…)
Turns out that the underwater crawler was British…the British had been allocated the task to do some mischief to get Sweden agitated against the Russians…
The ruse …or “False-Flag” worked…
The Russian demand that the U.S. guarantee that Ukraine not be incorporated into NATO is not asking a lot, since the U.S. made this promise in 1991, in exchange for some huge Soviet concessions. The Russians are simply asking “Biden” to honor that promise. The White House is arguing that Ukraine has a sovereign right to seek membership in NATO. While Kiev can ask for this, NATO can make it clear they will refuse. NATO can promise not to incorporate Ukraine or other states without violating Ukrainian sovereignty. As I understand it, Russia is seeking a guarantee from the U.S., not Ukraine.
I think Russia basically has two approaches for responding to Western hostility: to wait or to take active measures. For the most part Russia has been waiting, but we are now seeing an active response. I have to wonder what has been going on behind the scenes, out of public view. The deployment of chemical weapons in Ukraine seems to me like a big deal, but this hasn’t received much attention, perhaps being eclipsed by the drama of Russia’s demands. Who is behind the chemical weapons? Are they trying to create a false flag event like the ones in Syria? If “Biden” is behind this, are they trying to create a pretext to justify active NATO involvement in Ukraine? If some other group is behind the weapons, are they trying manipulate NATO into intervening directly? Both Russia and China have been complaining about U.S. bioweapon attacks, but haven’t been able to produce hard evidence. The Kremlin seems to be concerned about the possibility of a real war between NATO and Russia starting.
The alternative, I think, is for Russia to wait for an anti-imperialist, peaceful American government to materialize, or for U.S. power to wane. In some ways the interests of Russia and the American public align; both groups are plagued by Washington. However, I don’t think the U.S. public by and large sees matters this way right now. There is much discontent with the government, but efforts to change that government through the elections have mostly been stymied or subverted. Eventually, I expect the current establishment to get ousted, but they seem to have enormous staying power and are deeply entrenched. They aren’t going to leave quietly. When they do leave, the same interest groups that created this mess will be behind the scenes, manipulating everybody. I hope the politics of their replacement will be something positive, but who knows? American politics is very delusional.
The US establishment (Deep State) is very robust and cannot be dislodged. The basic policy is, and always is, complete world domination–the mantra and prime directive is “it’s either the Chinese or us and it had better be us.” The differences are now between the “realists” who believe that the West’s cultural influence is enough to dominate the world through the process of globalization i.e., the Empire. This cultural influence has become toxic through the “wokeism” movement and thus I’m not sure it has a future due to its excesses. The other faction are, as everyone here knows, neoconservatives, who believe that it is the “destiny” of the USA to rule the world primarily through the use of force not only for the “good” of the world but to give the American people a collective mission to unify a highly disparate society as they hoped to do with the phony war on terror. This is the conflict we see in the WH directly.
Only a highly aggressive Russian strike on Ukraine and/or NATO will change something in Washington. My guess is that it will empower the neocons within Washington in both political parties using the idea of “Russian aggression” to excite the population. At any rate, extreme sanctions, a build-up of troops, new bases, new missile deployments will result. Without a very militant and strong-appearing answer to the Russians, Democrats are guaranteed to lose Congress.
Sooner or later, I think, the establishment is doomed unless they can start performing. They are incompetent. There are too few winners and too many losers. It is surviving on increasingly threadbare propaganda and election gimmicks. Can that continue forever?
I think the neocons and neolibs are two sides of the same coin; they are zionist influence operations, one aimed at the Dems, the other at Republicans.
yes, i too agree the divulged chemical weapon ff is a very big deal & wholly a transgression of red lines…my speculation connects it with the captured ‘golden pheasants’.
I am not familiar with the ‘golden pheasants’. This sounds like another scam that was exposed.
I see no logical reason for Russia to get kinetic in the Ukraine until NATO has actual missiles there with first strike capability. This is because the US is slowly dieing and falling apart. On our current course, the US will either be balkanized or Brazilianized inside of a generation. Unless something spectacular happens, the US empire will be consigned to the annuls of history within the next 12 or so years. There is no reason for Russia to go on the offensive and give the US political class a common enemy to unite the disparate factions of the working and middle classes against when the opposing factions are ready to tear each other’s throats out. All of this with the dollar tittering on the brink in the background. Russia and China will both bide their time if they can help it. I would worry more about China jumping the gun, because I believe it is clear that Xi has more of an ego than Putin, and also that Xi is much more in control of China than Putin is of Russia. Everyone that is saying full scale war is on the horizon is a little too optimistic, or pessimistic. That’s just my take though.
-Rick
Russia can’t wait twelve years for the US to fall apart. US military power isn’t going to go away in twelve years even if its economy collapses – not as long as the US taxpayer continues to pay his tax bill – which is mostly by withholding anyway.
Ukraine is an issue that Russia can allow to drag on for a while. But not if the West continues to push NATO membership. The only solution to that is to take Ukraine off the table.
Also, the real problem is that the same problem exists for the CIA and the neocons: They want a war between Ukraine and Russia and they’re not prepared to wait another twelve years to get that.
So someone has to make a move and considerably sooner than twelve years.
china is not going to jump the gun! china & putin coordinate their plans & actions. the sco involvement in ka is clear headed & necessary. the chinese are patient & renown for their inscrutable nature for good reason. zelensky, blinken, bojo & nod are more likely to jump the gun. look no further than israel…saying even if iran reaches a deal in vienna israel does not have to stick with it.
What are the odds that in a country where only 2% identify as Jewish that both Deputy FM and FM qualify?
Let me try the math 2% = 0,02. 0.02 x 0.02 = 0.004 0r 1/50 x 1/50 = 1/2500 or 1;2500
Those are long odds, however, not being anti=Semitic, I’m not casting aspersions.
Not just the FM and Deputy FM.
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jews-in-the-biden-administration
Know Thy Enemy.
Vlad, he’s behind you; Oh no he isn’t; he fracking is.
@Swede. I counted 38 on your list of Jews in the Biden Administration, from the Jewish Virtual Library. That’s about 15% of the 256 posts that Biden has already filled, according to WikiPedia. Good show from an ethnic group that represents only 2% of the U$ population.
Includes the advisor on Iran, naturally. Also curiously, 2 advisors on Cov-19.
The U$A didn’t address Russia’s core demands and seems to thwart the Russian security initiative through diversion by focusing on Ukraine (narrowing the frame to its advantage). Russia is standing firm on its security demands! The U$A seems to be pursuing a Muddling Scenario. Will have a better understanding after this week’s meetings.
Expectations of an agreement on a security treaty are very low. Will Russia climb-down or back its demands with actions? The possible scenarios in order of their likely probability are:
– Russia “military-technical” phase
– Muddling
– Russia gets its demands – diplomatic resolution – success
Here is a great discussion exploring Russia & Dollar Empire’s moves, countermoves, and how events might unfold in various scenarios. Haven’t come across a better discussion that this one. The U$A’s mistakes are compounding and have brought it to a critical juncture. Let’s see what new signals emerge this week.
https://youtu.be/r5EBMPmKEjo
Thinking how Russia could create risks for the US… unlikely this mean risks for the troops outside US, at the same time, it cannot move closer to USA due to geography…
So the likely choice would be:
1) very public demonstrtion of millitry strength for USA citizens which could not be hidden, with some realy scary impact
2) creating real issues within USA weakest points – like infrastructure… and watching semi-collapse of it…
Russia can create a 8.0 earthquake by just declaring that it will only sell its resources in Rubles and through currency swaps. This will trigger the final phase of the De-Dollarization game. The EU will have a choice: NATO or partner with Russia. It will create a tsunami of change in the world!
Russia has many non-military moves to challenge the Financial Empire. Without its dollar hegemony, the Empire will be “a fish out of water”. Also, after the Winter Olympics China will be happy to join Russia in this game!
China and Russia need to end the dollar hegemony if they want to win and achieve peace and prosperity. The Dollar dominance is the energy of Empire’s “Ring of power.”
I had a feeling since the beginning, from the presentation of the Russian ultimatum to the selection of ” an American social worker” as diplomat in the discussion, that it was not going to end well. Canada, as a “brilliant” suggestion has just proposed “more sanctions”. Russia is not going anywhere, both US and EU are convinced they can defeat Russia “easily”: until someone shows them the contrary, it is wasting of time.
Wow ……………
Thank you Andrei for hosting the video. I watched all of it, as I did the one in Alaska. I can´t add a signal thought to what was communicated by Russia. They are not kidding.
I saw a brief clip of the beginning of the American and Russian meeting on Reuters. The lead rep from the US, she was afraid. Her body langiuage was unmistakeable. This coincides with what I also observed with Sec. Blinken. ……….. I don´t blame Russia for it´s position and I have already previously explained my background on your blog. They are reading this correctly.
This is really, very bad. I cannot put it any other way. So, I am just going to keep putting one step in front of the other in my own personal life and we will see what happens soon. I do not have hope. My training and experience deny me that. But, I will be happy if we pull out of this one.
I wish well to all,
John
You mean videos like https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Y65N41hVuuU ?
Nervous and somewhat erratically hasty. But “afraid” seems to be overstatement to me.
She clearly seemed afraid when she stood next to Ryabkov, while Ryabkov had an imposing and stalwart demeanour with clenched fists.
Hello John. I’m more optimitistic; although the hard statements from Russia are real, they are in a negotiation process. When its deputy FM said it wasn’t “hopeless”, after speaking with the other side, it can mean he saw a way out already. An important question for historians or just observers is what set the Russians off rather suddenly. “Ukraine-Ukraine-Ukraine,” everybody says. I don’t think so. Maybe a combination of all things, but I think that one thing in particular set them off and made them try to resolve things for themselves from the root up: That is, the continued-constant sending of warships to the Black Sea. I think it was this action that is mainly responsible for the two proposals. It forced the question, “Why are we in this situation?” The two proposals reflect their answers. No doubt the (perennial) presence of military advisers in Ukraine was a factor, just like the presence of missiles in Eastern Europe worried them since years ago, but that’s not like seeing warships come repeatedly to “your sea.” Their new weapons play a role but it’s pretty clear from the last two years that they did not plan on capitalizing on that achievement in this way. What do you think?
The honourable Mr. Ryabkov, an old school diplomat (I mean that as a compliment) is possessed of great skill as a communicator. The perception is of a highly-focused and intelligent man that will remain calm and controlled under pressure. He has a calmness and assuredness which makes him easy to communicate with. Although I’m sure folks like Blinken will find him immensely frustrating (yet secretly admire him). In the current US administration, do they have anyone that is even remotely as polished, skilled, and convincing as this man? We’ve become so used to the congress-critters that inhabit the Whitehouse the majority of which are poorly educated fools that serve special interests and not the American people as a whole. Our leadership sets the tone of our diplomats. Mr. Ryabkov is the polar opposite of that ‘colorful’, narcissistic bluster, and bullshyte.
Much respect for this gentleman.
Things like this are not good signals:
Denmark offered NATO that it sends four F16 fighter jets with the staff of 70 people and a frigate with 160 people on board to Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, Bramsen told the Danish TV2 broadcaster.
“It is important to stand up for the values we believe in and send a very clear signal to Russia,” Bramsen said after a meeting of the foreign policy council.
Bramsen is the Danish defense minister.
My son in Brest, France, told me a meeting with all European defense ministers will be hold there on 13 January. The state tv this evening again completely took Kievs position, with a documentary on the frontline with brave defenders. Disgusting, not one word about the fate of Donbas civilians!
tripwire forces AKA human shield?
Is there really a need for a second day of these talks? Russia should just publicly lay out its security concerns for posterity and leave it at that.
“Nato stands ready for conflict in Europe, says alliance chief”. -Jens Stoltenberg
https://www.ft.com/content/426889a6-4fe9-4897-b923-6b3f546c5878
This guy thinks NATO is ready? Really!?!
I doubt that Russia is going to bite the moldy bagel that nation 404 has on offer but there is going to be a response. I am told when you boil a frog you start at a low temperature at first.
Поспеши́шь — люде́й насмеши́шь
The Empire was a little hasty in Kazakhstan, no?
All this talk with a non-entity (Nato) may be necessary for Russian domestic audiences, but it largely misses the point and feeds the phantom.
If Moscow feels the need to draw non-negotiable redlines then they should simply write to the national entity concerned and advise them of the dates and times of surgical removal of offending infrastructure/systems etc. Without consequences complaints are meaningless. For this vaccum Russia must bear part of the blame.
Many of these minor states probably had no real choice from the schoolyard bully with Russia missing in action. Nato is essentially irrelevant and could be dissolved as a terrorist organisation based on Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, to name just a few examples.
If the Europeans want energy and block Russia using SWIFT then simply demand payment in gold or the like in an alternative system (which apparently exists) and buy shares in coal which will suddenly be back big time during a freezing winter.
China already has all the rope they need (from the 1%) to hang the West with. Get over the iphone gimmick and move on. One move by China to reclaim Taiwan would reverse 180-degrees the global chip-economics. Remember, the 2020 pandemic with images of Americans making cloth masks because they can’t get Chinese supplies? And now cars/trucks cannot find chip parts. Multiply those problems by 10,000 and we have the real-world situation in focus. Pain all the way round, but much more so in the decaying West.
despite all the bluster the Americans are simply not going to exchange Kiev – and the Nazis therein – for washington, Langley or New York and that is ultimately what the Russians are saying. Seek to harm us and we will harm you, at home. We have the capabiltiy and you can’t stop us. The Ukrainians are toast and the US is on propaganda overdrive, talking the talk, but tacitly agreeing that like Georgia in 2008 they will leave the Ukraines in the lurch come the decisive moment. The failed MI6 Kazak op can’t have helped either. Some of the horse**** I’ve been watching on western news networks today has been unbelievable but behind it all the Ukrainian politicians are visibly quaking. Maybe nothing will change outwardly, maybe it will but in fact everything has changed and the Russians push their advantage and the Americans concede. NATO will be a waste of time tomorrow, they have no say in anything and no power outside what the US bids them to do.
Well said Boris.
They will regret any move they make and they NOT have the support from the American, British or EU people.
The failure to honor agreements made in 1991 with the USSR / Gorbachev is the key point.
Foreign Treaties are binding and US Supreme Court is bound to enforce them so perhaps Russia should as one minor option in this seek an emergency injunction from it ? And the obtaining of one – if it happened
– would be embarrassing for Biden and the Neo-Con fools running things.
Clinton and Obama were the main culprits in this and should be arrested and dealt with appropriately.
I am an American but above all I want honesty, the truth and justice for all peoples–in other words all the things advertised in the Declaration of Independence and the Preamble to the Constitution. I have no desire for the spoils of war, nor tolerance for the thugs running this place who seem merely interested in how much they can grab for their wealthy patrons after the shooting stops. Sorry to say, the leaders of my country lie like a rug and are as treacherous as snakes. They are a danger to our own citizens and not just some inconsequential foreigners on the other side of the earth. American leadership has overtly been spoiling for a fight with Russia ever since Obama decided to start talking trash to Putin after instigating the overthrow of the legally elected government in Kiev, which everyone with an IQ above room temperature (Fahrenheit) knows was done to threaten Russia’s national security and seize its main naval base at Sevastopol. Messrs. Biden, Blinken et al. (or whomever runs this joint), no country is going to roll over and appease megalomaniacs such as yourselves. Even the haplessly outgunned countries in the Middle East, like Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, stood up to Washington’s war crimes of scorched earth attacks and tried to fight back. It was for something you seem not to value whatsoever: their national honor. You fools are putting this nation and all our lives at risk if you continue to act with such (needless!) arrogant insolence against the Russian state and its people. Get a clue, you warmongers, the people you pretend to serve do not want WWIII or even any watered down facsimile of one. It will not bring glory, or stability, or riches, or power and certainly not the admiration of anyone but your own deluded selves. You fools will be hated in the history books just like names I need not even mention. If you mainly want “political capital” to get re-elected in what looks like a bad year coming up for you, just reflect back on Ronald Reagan and why he retired with such popularity in spite of all the scandals: he made peace with Gorbachev and the Soviet Union. How quickly you deceivers forget even your rare acts of wisdom and beneficence.
The solution to all these issues will be military in nature, without any illusion. Ryabkov, being a diplomat and not a military person, would not even hint at the kind of military response and he doesn’t need to do that. He only states that it will be military and technological, which is the boundary of his competence and authority. Clearly, Russia and Putin have been ready and reasonably open to using the military where needed. Those ideas that Putin is “soft” are nonsense. And there is no higher purpose of the Russian military than to defend the Russian security and nation. The very existence of the Russian military is a guarantee and a promise, and a proof that it will be used when needed, and threatening the country, its statehood, its population, and borders is the main reason to use that military.
However, Ryabkov clearly states that an invasion of Ukraine is not part of this solution in plan. So while the response and approach will be military, it is unlikely to be a direct war in Ukraine yet. At least, not in the next few months. NATO and the US are gradually more and more explicitly challenged militarily and other ways. They are a subject of increased tension and threat levels. Russia will follow the route of increased tension and confrontation. The pain for the West will grow. Their leaders will walk, sleep, and wake up with the equivalent of a cocked handgun at their heads, whose trigger can be pulled at any time without any warning. No one can live like that!
Russia has the military-technological advantage in terms of striking first. The strategic depth of the US is completely exposed. If stand-off or other offensive weapons are deployed close to the Russian border, Russia will strike them directly and destroy them, leaving no option for any response by the US and the West. If the US tries to respond and escalate, the proverbial trigger of the proverbial cocked hang gun can be pulled for real and the US war party will be turned into ashes and corpses.
Yes, I’m convinced that Russia will directly strike offensive sites around her territory, and the US cannot possibly prepare an equivalent response or threat, and the West will do nothing about it without ceasing to exist in minutes to hours (no nukes needed). The Russian security will be guaranteed. No doubt about it, because all the cards are set for that.
Talking about possible Ukraine NATO membership is distraction from the main issue. NATO is already in Poland and Romania with its offensive systems installed.
Russia is worried that West will opt for a FirstStrike as soon hypersonic missiles are developed by the US. This talks are about removing systems already installed away from Russian borders so Russia can defend itself in case of sudden, crippling attack. Knowing the state of mind of Western elites and spinelesness of their European proxies, this is very real possibility. All “Sudden Stike” capable weapons must be removed, one way or another.
Russia has much better ways to spend its money than to burn it in yet another arms race. Unlike West, whose elites can only profit from it.
(Consquential impoverishment of their own population is not important. Too much useles eaters, anyway.)
Did not several such arms control treaties already exist between the US and the RF (inherited from the USSR)? I think Dubya got this ball rolling after the military strike against the Russian peacekeepers in Georgia by Sakasvilli failed miserably. l believe these treaties were even ratified by the US Congress as the law of the land (something we can rarely accomplish in America’s legislature). Yet foolish and arrogant American presidents were allowed to simply disavow them, whether they actually had that power or not. Whatever a US president decides to do always seems to become fait accompli whether a good idea or the most terrible one.
US tells Russia NATO won’t stop expanding
It’s from RT.
I think the talks will most likely stop soon I mean Russia asked the exact opposite and is not interested in never ending talks for talks. Russia will switch to military means to achieve its objectives it s what Russia has been saying for a month.
What s happening is what I thought would most likely happen. Russia made its points clear and came to that meeting with very low expectations thinking “at least we tried”. Now that it s clear nato/US refuse to agree on anything Russia has the official green light to proceed with a military solution. This is how I read the last developments.
To understand what the Russians are up against would be helpful to view episodes 36-40 of
“Going Across The Yalu River”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMtV429ceuA&list=PLJPEbKQEnOROz4903Nva2lHhPh9N9dEir&index=38
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AArV_g3v_jI&list=PLJPEbKQEnOROz4903Nva2lHhPh9N9dEir&index=39
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AArV_g3v_jI&list=PLJPEbKQEnOROz4903Nva2lHhPh9N9dEir&index=40
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AArV_g3v_jI&list=PLJPEbKQEnOROz4903Nva2lHhPh9N9dEir&index=37
Which covers the negotiations between the US/UN and DPRK/PRC..
Note that the war went on for 15 additional months over one issue….. repatriation of POWs…
The US/UN wanted conditions and the ability to intimidate Chinese/DPRK POWs into joining the ROK, and the DPRK/PRC wanted unconditional repatriation.
The US thought it could get it’s way because it thought itself superior in force of arms. The PRC/DPRK were more tenacious and out lasted the US/UN troops, getting their way at the end.
I am quite certain the Russians are aware of this.
This specifically means the Russians know the issues will be ultimately settled by force of arms.
This means the EurAsians are preparing the ground work for that.
This means that this ballet will go on for some time…
INDY
Both Scott Ritter at Consortium News and Bernhard over at Moon of Alabama posted articles today agreeing with what I’ve said about the talks most likely going to fail miserably.
This is a farce equivalent to the JCPOA talks which are going nowhere.
I still expect a Ukraine offensive against Donbass once these talks fail – and then Russia will make Ukraine as a functioning state cease to exist.
I expect to see Ukrainian president Zelensky to be photographed soon chewing on his tie. Karma is a bitch.
@JavierBlas
Russia, meanwhile, is keeping gas supply really tight into Europe (or, as Gazprom officials would put it, Russia is meeting contracted volumes, and none is asking for more). Russian gas hasn’t flowed into Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline for a record 21 consecutive days
@ Jefke on January 10, 2022
“My son in Brest, France, told me a meeting with all European defense ministers will be hold there on 13 January. The state tv this evening again completely took Kievs position, with a documentary on the frontline with brave defenders. Disgusting, not one word about the fate of Donbas civilians!”
And not one word from any of these Eurostan marionettes about the proven fact that Kiev is a neo-Nazi snake pit, with neo-Nazi demonstrations, marches with neo-Nazi flags, desecration of WWII symbols, criminals who burn people alive as their predecesors in the SS and Wehrmacht did.
Not one word.
Not a word about the Soviet Union sacrifices in liberating their ancestors from the Nazi yoke, and now we find their descendants supporting a failed statelet led by Ukronazis whose national “hero” is a criminal traitor to the Ukranian and Russian people, who pledged loyalty to Hitler.
Not one word.
Eurostan ruling elite can stoop to any level to attack Russia, they have no moral compass, no historical memory, a greedy bunch of cynical, dishonest, corrupt, crooked, unprincipled, treacherous good-for-nothing descendants of pirates, buccaneers, thieves that ransacked and plundered the world killing millions to make themselves rich.
Not different from the US primitive accumulation of capital.
Shame on Eurostan. They stink.
Lone Wolf
So, as we all know that US is not “agreement capable”… was there any discussion on Crimea? Is there an elephant in the room?
Another big bear that can talk without BS..ie tools on the table, big tools, many tools, sanctions, consequences. Gas station nation. Compared to Russian manner’s, they never mention US citizens living and shitting on the streets plus rioting looting, mass killing etc etc. but I digress. This big bear is another intelligent and concise diplomat, does not use a telly prom and fake Hollywood fire side chat scenario. Speaks hard facts without a written report in front of him. Has any US Sec Of State within living memory, ever had the intellectual equal to any Russian Foreign Office personnel. IE the big mouth Telly Tubby and the Blinking karaoke dude… “Come on Man.”
Would be good to provide a summary of the key points mentioned, because many people won’t have the time to go thru the video.
That’s why we die in wars.
The American concentration span is a 40 second sound bite. IQ of 81 requires supervision from medical trained media personnel. Note…A US young women sells her farts in a jar, made $200,000 in the first year. American exceptionalism supporting a small DIY manufacturing economy. Next girls in uniform farts…marines are the most offensive. Only what I have heard.
Ryabkov on the unacceptability of the deployment of American weapons in Europe
“Apart from sanctions and blackmail, little is left in the arsenal of modern Western foreign policy. Even the skill to negotiate is being lost. But nothing, we will try to restore it. If necessary, we will instill this skill.” )))
“If the US does not give up the deployment of a potential, which is developing very rapidly, then soon somewhere in Europe, it may require some kind of military response from Russia.” )))
“In bad circumstances, these countries will suffer. ))) For example, the United States broke up an important treaty, and the situation was saved only thanks to Russia’s unilateral refusal to develop its potential in violation of this treaty.
You have to understand that we are talking about one of the most dangerous areas for the deployment of short- and medium-range weapons. “
“Turkish militants launch surprise offensive in Idlib”
https://avia-pro.net/news/tureckie-boeviki-nachali-neozhidannoe-nastuplenie-v-idlibe
Erdogan is angry his resurrection of the Turkic “empire” is not quite coming along. It looks like anywhere he makes a move, Putin is one step ahead, even during the CIA coup d’etat from which Putin saved this ungrateful entity from a certain death.
He just ordered his orcs and Uruk-hai in Syria to launch an attack on Syrian positions in Idlib, we can bet this is his asymmetric response to the Kazakh F.U.B.A.R. It might also be a pre-emptive strike against Russia’s plans to clean Idlib from his magots. Erdogan is a venomous snake, ambitious and arrogant, a double-tongue with no sense of loyalty, that Putin has managed to tame. Sort of.
Now he’s exploiting his position as a member of NATO, a “friend” of Ukraine and of all the countries with a Turkic speaking population, to counter Russia’s “ambitions.” An incorrigible, pretentious dwarf.
Lone Wolf
Your sentiments are understandable in the circumstances. However, I suspect it is a little more simple and regionally based than that. For all Erdogan’s macho gay bluff (reminds me of a certain mid-2oth Italian facist figure before he was hung from a lampost), he is ultimately a two-faced whore with his Turkish lira in free-fall. Who would he turn to? The ones with the money system of course.
How is this for a hint:…
“Iran Hails Nuke Talk Progress, But Israel Warns: ‘We Won’t Be Bound By Any Deal’ ” (ZH)
It’s fairly clear that any action in ye olde “Assad Must Go!” Syria, not directly connected with extracting univited aliens stealing Syrian oil, has little to do with Russia per se. This is an Israeli orientated vector and now let’s see if the Lira stablises and even mysteriously rises again. This Turk sold his soul decades ago. Now all he has for sale/hire is his ass…. and I’m sure Tel Aviv will be happy to oblige…. (/sarc)
There is one way to force these idiots to really negociate or even capitulate at some point, without a single kinetic action.
– Sudden press conference from Putin + Lavrov + Shoigu, telling the west: we proposed you peace and cooperation, you refused everything or just delivered small empty promises to win time.
– We don’t like war because we, we really know what war means. We lost 26 millions former USSR military and innocent citizens to free YOU also from nazism. Without us you would all be speaking German today and who knows for the rest?This is the way to thank us you people? We eliminated and destroyed x thousands of jihadists terrorists in Syria. We provide you a reliable energy that you refuse for some prefering to pay higher prices with the idiotic spot market you invented. You don’t open NS2, ok not our problem this is yours mainly Germany one.
– Europeans you choosed US vassality, not the people, the ‘elite’ of your countries because you are being blackmailed by your supposed to be allies via NSA spying? who don’t hesitate to let you freeze, loose a lot (hundreds of billions) in counter sanctions for 7 years. It was your choice not our you will now have to face the consequences of this choice.
– Our peace proposals have all been refused you know what it means.
– These proposals were not an ultimatum but this time you are forcing us to sens you a strong one.
– It is now up to you to choose between peace and war..
– We don’t want to humiliate you but all our red lines have been crossed. You have advised several times since Munich 2008.
– You did not believe us. You attacked us with multiples fake psyop (skripal, Navalny, Elections meddling, fake chem attacks in Syria….).
– You dare to use neonazis war criminals and jihadists, colour revolutions etc..against us.
– You lie to your people 24/7 for more than 12 years with your purely racist russophobia.
– We are sad to be obliged to use force against countries which lost their sovereignty but it is your choice.
When a country has lost his sovereignty it enter the fatal logic of alliances(Nato).
– You should quickly reread the history and see the catastrophic results where such a path will lead you.
– In conclusion, we still expect your acceptation of our demands before xx date at xx hour. This is this time a real ultimatum as we have no more choice we can not retreat.
The arms are going to ‘speak’.
1) emergency meeting of the Russian Duma in ‘congress’, to allow VVP to use force and declare war on ennemies of the RF if so be it
2) visible preparations on all fields of all types of missiles, defense, EW, this must be very visible with zero doubt by Nato.
3) Must be done on monday during opening hours of European and WS stocks exchanges + energy spot markets.
4) let’s say the ultimatum expires thursday at midnight
– What will happen? Stocks exchanges will collapse(worse than during the subprimes and even shortly after covid first lockdown). Oil, gas and all commodities will skyrocket to unbearable levels.
Dozens of trillions will be lost in the West(or course Russia will close RUS markets before for a ‘technical problem’).
US/UK/NATO/EU will be in full panic mode and will want to rush to negociate asap.
No action yet, full silence, the threath must be 100% credible.
They can not handle such a disaster very long(not a single person killed till now). May even try massive sanctions but in such a mess it would be even more suicidal.
On tuesday RF announces ‘force majeure’ and stop all energy deliveries to EU Customers (except the rare good one Hungary, Serbia..if technically possible?)
On wednesday ‘rain of RUS statements’ (Maria on action 24/7, sorry Maria), multiple videos of troops , command control rooms, preparation of the population…
Normally, yes normal sane people at this moment on Thursday will try to communicate with Moscow for urgent secret talks…
Headlines of the western press:
Le Figaro: ”la guerre à nos portes, Macron tente une dernière action de paix”.
“Le CAC40 perds 56% en 3 jours, 1000 milliards partent en fumée”
“L’opposition demande la démission immédiate de SToltenbergh et Borrell.”
“Macron veut remplacer Von der layen en accord avec Berlin.”
LONDON and NYC:
Telegraph: stock collasing, real estate loosing 30% of his value, gold at 3000 usd, oil at 350 usd, gas 12.000 on spot.
Cobra meeting going on for 10 hours.
NYTimes: Russia is bluffing, the FED will print one quadrillion of usd.
Day after, markets closed to avoid US bankruptcy, Fed QE not sufficient, people buying gold, riots for gas starting everywhere.
National guard recalled.Stores broken on Fith avenue. Biden declaring state of emergency.
Brussels: NATO in meeting since 4 am, nothing for the moment -CNN ABC-BBC
Inflation skyrocketing above 30% in two days, people rushing to supermarkets, almost empty.
Logistic collapsing.
BEIJING: not a single word untill XI adressing the Nation, we are ready to help RF and Western countries to find a win win peace compromise, it is not too late, we have a solution.
I agree it looks crazy but without shooting a single bullet believe me this is the Worse weakness of the West they are 100% NOT READY for any war(even very limited),to loose their confort, their life, their salaries, families, home, ferrari, top model wife of girlfriends..by no mean.Only greed and money count for them
They will cry to negociate, I mean the real thing no other choice than to almost capitulate as they need an official statement that the crisis is over for good(then their greed will come back instantly, they will buy for the penny stocks, bonds etc…RF will offer a fake face saving(even of not deserved at all).
It is dangerous but believe me Russia will never get anything without a real threath, a strong and imminent to use force, no need for first strike or whatever strike.
Financial missile Wall Street Poseidon or Tsirkon.
Amen!!!
What are you doing here, wasting your time posting? You should be advising Putin! I had the best laugh of the night, don’t get me wrong, not laughing at you or your proposal, but at “Le Figaro” and “The Telegraph” headlines. That’s more than a Poseidon + Zircon combined, that’s a Sarmat.
I like the Chinese gambit. In general, very realistic. I suggest you send it to Putin, copy to Lavrov and Shoigu, via Maria, since you have her working 24/7. :-)
Best post of the day, bar none. Thanks.
Lone Wolf
Assalaamu alaykum w w. Putin (may God almighty bless him) knows this of course.
But his job (as the leader of the resurected third Ruum) is to make it as difficult for the bolsheviks (we can call them) to start the third world war that he already knows is inevitable. And that is what he is doing.
Because he knows that hundres of millions of innocent humans will die and he has to take responsibility for all of humanity as (the closest thing we have as) God’s representative on earth.
So please people. Trust this man and his judgements, he deserves it.
There is multiple and much more painful ways to hurt Western elites than to threaten them with war. All that havoc that you elaborate would hurt common people, making them unite and flock around their leaders. Elites will immensely profit from this mess, like always.
Let me propose another crazy theory. Say, Kazakhstan government came into possession of proofs that UK and US are behind attempted coup. Kazakhstan impose retaliatory sanctions on them and immediately nationalize all western assets in oil companies, cut diplomatic, ties and expel personnel. What west can do? Sanction Kazakhstan?
Russia and China can play dumb, as they have nothing to do with internal policy of Kazakhs, :)
While, at the same time they cover the damage of Kazakhs. This can not be too expensive as there is only 19 million people, plus they will seize complete western infrastructure in oil companies and continue to do business as usual. Only with new customers.
For sure, West will sue Kazakhstan at international level for lost profit, but Kazakhstan can also sue UK/US and demand exorbitant reparations for damages and lost lives. Process will drag for years, even decades. In the meantime energy crisis in the West won’t go away. US shale oil reserves will be depleted long before legal process is finished. They will be forced to suck it up and beg for settlement. Or goo full “Do I feel lucky”, and attack Russians in Kazakhstan.
“Well? Do you, punk?”
One needs to realize in this the US actions in Ukraine are those of the Democrats, Obama (who is the defacto President not Biden), who are the running dogs for EU elites wanting to push east and eventually collapse and take over Russia – as they tried in 1812 & 1941.
The enemy is not the American people but those the EU and Washington DC.
And elites in the UK will also be involved.
The average person in US, UK and EU is also under domestic attack from the same elites using this pandemic agenda.
Russia must stand firm and take action on this when the time comes target the specific villains behind this to save mankind.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/01/10/americans-are-a-non-serious-people-playing-with-fire/?fbclid=IwAR0x_CmoEVsZMSffadTyi4KKcHDl8b1EEzDBNX6FCrzWrT4bxLH_v9DCUnw
Americans are a non-serious people “playing with fire”
Paul Craig Roberts
The Americans, wallowing in hubris and delusions of omnipotence, have blown the meeting with the Russians, as I expected them to do.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergey Ryabkov expressed the Kremlin’s loss of patience:
“We do not trust the other side. It’s over, enough is enough.” The Americans “underestimate the gravity of the situation,” and failed to show an understanding of how key issues need to be resolved. “We are fed up with loose talk, half-promises, misrepresentations. It is absolutely mandatory to make sure that Ukraine never ever becomes a member of NATO.”
Ryabkov said he will make a decision on January 13 whether to continue the meeting.
https://www.rt.com/russia/545616-ryabkov-geneva-talks-nato/
Ryabkov said if the militarization of Russia’s border by Washington did not cease, the Russian military will respond in a way that “will inevitably and unavoidably damage the security of the US and its European allies.” “We are calling on the US to demonstrate a maximum of responsibility at this moment. Risks related to a possible increase of confrontation should not be underestimated,” Ryabkov said, adding that “significant” effort has been made to persuade the Americans that “playing with fire” is not in their interests.
https://www.rt.com/russia/545624-moscow-warns-washington-confrontation/
The insouciant State Department replied that NATO won’t stop expanding.
The West is trying to delay everything…
“I don’t think we’ll see any breakthrough in the coming week,” Blinken said.
The U.S. betrays its heritage by threatening war against Russia and China.
Those who cherish our country’s legacy are horrified by our headlong rush to war. America at its best was the very motor of world progress, higher living standards and peace.
That is our true national identity. We betray ourselves by making military threats against those who are advancing as world powers, as we once did. Now we are committing suicide by dishonoring historic agreements that would keep the world safe from nuclear annihilation.
We were industrialized by progressive patriots. They won out against Southern slaveowners and imperial financiers who sought to block American progress. The U.S. at its best boosted other nations to technological prowess.
Abraham Lincoln and his allies organized the greatest advances ever made in technology and living standards, and a long era of peace with the world. Franklin Roosevelt and John Kennedy crusaded to bring peace and a humane existence to all mankind.
America changed course after JFK’s murder. We gave up our industries and lost our skills. We gave power to unaccountable Globalist financiers. Their speculation and deindustrialization have bankrupted the Western world. Other powers are now rising who won’t follow Globalist rules into poverty and national suicide.
The gravest danger now comes from America abandoning its own historic mission and purpose, which is to elevate the common man. Those who know history are especially challenged to act now, to speak out, so that we may protect the civilization that America at its best did so much to advance.
Some speak from kinetic war. Where as the US-UK chances of success against Russia-China?
With Ukraine the west try a communicational trap. Russia do not take the bait.
I think Russia will act more offensively in a manner to not give the fool a way to escalate to nuke.
If I where russian I would put in dissarray a big ship bringing supply to Nato during a big storm. And other things like that.
To deploy long range offensive military hardware behind ennemi line.
To continue to cut in smaller sections the jihadi-crisis arc in Sahel.
To give Haftar thé means to crush Nato Minion in Lybia.
Covert and indirect warfare will increase, Yemen, Syria, Irak, to obtain the conditions to crush quicker the petro-dollars.
Global chaos will increase till the fall of thé mad west elites.
Two pieces of good news. One, a retired general from Norway “…Blames Fallout With Russia on ‘Western Exceptionalism, US Hubris'”
https://sputniknews.com/20220111/retired-norwegian-general-blames-fallout-with-russia-on-western-exceptionalism-us-hubris–1092179571.html
“…Addressing the recent tensions between Russia and the West in his opinion peace (sic by me) in the newspaper Aftenposten, Mood blamed the West for “distorting reality” by portraying Russia as “the great villain” and the US and the West as “flawless defenders of democracy”…”
“…“The last 30 years have not been marked by mutual respect and involvement. They have been characterised by Western exceptionalism and American hubris”, Mood wrote. “I also don’t remember seeing a single movie or TV series where the Russians are the good ones and Western characters are the bad ones. The cultural expression of the West promotes the US and Europeans as the good ones. It cultivates the image of Russia and Russians as evil, low villains,” Mood added…”
“…“Is it possible to envisage new institutions or fundamentally reform the existing ones? Is it possible to envisage a more defensive NATO that is open to everyone, including Russia? And where members renounce bases and nuclear weapons outside their own territory?”, Mood concluded, warning that without “new thinking” we are likely to steer towards conflict and war in both the short and long term…”
Some sane heads in Eurostan.
RI Novosti reports on the Western media coverage of the negotiations in Geneva. (Translator needed.)
https://ria.ru/20220111/peregovory-1767370089.html
“American newspaper The New York Times came to the conclusion that the victory in the first meeting was reserved for Russia…”
“Even without U.S. concessions, Monday’s talks are a kind of victory for the Kremlin, as the issue of expansion comes to the fore. NATO, which has long irritated Putin, “the material says…”
British media were more conservative in their assessments.
“The National Interest,” end-of-history Fukuyama et al conservative magazine has an article advocating for the recognition of Crimea by the West, “to relieve tension around Ukraine.”
“Foreign Affairs” suggested the US should be more specific about the sanctions, and spell out what sectors/institutions would be hit by them.
“The White House should name the Russian banks that it will blacklist, the specific transactions it will ban, and the companies that will be at risk of bankruptcy. Then the Kremlin may begin to take the threats of sanctions more seriously,” he concluded.
More of the same.
A good summary to start with.
Lone Wolf