Several Serbian commentators have expressed their concern, if not outright worry, about what is happening right now in Novorossia. I have to admit that I now share that concern. While I am not Serbian myself, some of the longtime readers of that blog know that I have had the opportunity to follow the entire war in Bosnia and Croatia literally minute by minute while working for the UN far away from Yugoslavia, but with daily access to UNPROFOR reports and with the possibility to debrief any UNPROFOR officers including two Force Commanders. For me this war will forever feel ‘raw’ because that was the event which really opened my eyes to the nature of the so-called “free and democratic West” and which, combined with the war in Chechnia, eventually cost me my career. I will thus readily admit that I might be over-reacting. In fact, my brain tells me one thing, but my gut tells me another and as a result I am feeling a very unpleasant but persistent feeling of alarm.
It all began when I finally listened to the full inauguration speech of Poroshenko. Up to that moment, I had some hopes that while even though this would be difficult, some kind of reasonable beginning of some kind of peace process could be negotiated with the man. I knew that the guy was an unprincipled prostitute, but it was precisely that “quality” which made me cautiously hopeful: better a rational prostitute that a crazed lunatic, right?
Listening to him I understood that in this case Poroshenko was completely bought by the USA and that vague European effort to negotiate something had be summarily tossed out into the trash bin. As I wrote in a previous post, his message to Novorossia and Russia was as simple as it was blunt:
- No federalization
- No state status for the Russian language
- No recognition of the Novorossian political leadership
- Full and unconditional surrender of the Novorossian Defense Forces
- Crimea will forever belong to the Ukraine
So this was Poroshenko’s “peace plan”. In fact, Juan was absolutely right: it was a declaration of war combined with an ultimatum demanding a total and unconditional surrender. The fingerprints of Uncle Sam were all over the place. I was appalled by the lunacy of this “peace plan” but soon my disgust turned into horror when I saw the Russian reaction.
Instead of walking out from this zoo (Poroshenko got US-style standing ovations at each of the worst of his statement), the Russian ambassador just sat there. The Ministry of Foreign affairs did not comment either. As for the Russian media, it did summarize the event, but most of its attention was focused on the latest kidnapping of yet another two Russian journalists and on the floods around Barnaul in Russia. As for Putin, he announced that the had ordered the FSB to close down the section of the border which had been liberated by the NDF to prevent “the passage of illegal groups”.
Not good. Not good at all. And it did remind me of Bosnia.
Quick flashback: the Bosnian Serbs had basically won the war and defeated both the Bosnian-Croats and their supporters in Croatia and the Bosnian-Muslims and their supporters from the Muslim world. And yet they had to do that in spite of Milosevic who had agreed to cooperate with the AngloZionist by participating in the Empire’s blockade of the Bosnian-Serb even though he knew full well that the Croats were getting convoys full of weapons, ammo and supplies from Croatia and that the Muslims were getting the same courtesy of the US and Turkish Air Forces. Milosevic sold out his own people against a promise to be allowed to rule over Serbia and Montenegro. That promise was eventually broken (most AngloZionist “promises” are), but at that time he thought he could negotiate with the devil. He then sold out the Serbs of Kosovo (the craddle of Serbia no less than Kiev is the craddle of Russia). That he then died poisoned in the Hague is hardly a consolation to me.
Now, as a good friend told me: Putin is not Milosevic and, besides, if Putin caves in now he would be committing political suicide. I agree. Or, should I say, my brain agrees. My gut is in full “red alert” mode and I have been walking with a knot in my stomach since 2 days now. Here is why,
First, I don’t think that Putin can simply pretend not to have noticed Poroshenko’s absolutely insane speech. What a candidate says is, indeed, not very relevant, but an inaugural speech is really a totally different matter: it is, by definition, a *program speech* which outlines the goals of the new President.
Second, what is happening now in Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and the rest of Novorossia is a humanitarian catastrophe and Putin has promised to prevent that.
Third, Russia’s careful and non-provocative stance is gradually being interpreted by the western media as a sign of weakness and this perception might be, in part, the cause for the escalation in both atrocities by the regime in Kiev and of the increasingly arrogant anti-Russian rhetoric of Western politicians.
I am most definitely not an admirer of Dugin, but he recently said something which I fully agree with: he said that the future of the planet is being decided in Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Krasnyi Liman and the rest of Novorossia because the outcome of this battle will decide whether Russia can stand her ground against AngloZionist Empire and thereby initiate the liberation of the rest of the world or whether Russia will basically cave in. I fully agree with him. It is not an exaggeration to say that the future of the planet is being decided right now in Novorossia.
This is why I have a knot in my stomach. So far, I am most definitely not seeing the kind of reaction Poroshenko’s speech deserves. And it is not just words, like some say. The day of Poroshenko’s inauguration saw a violent increase in artillery strikes on Novorossia and an attack on a high level Novorussian official. Today – a Ukie artillery shell hit a church were the faithful were assembled for the feast of the Pentecost.
Putin has promised the Russian people (in Russia proper and outside) that he would not allow massive atrocities to take place against the population of Novorossia. They are clearly happening now. As for the “new” regime in Kiev, it is every bit as Nazi as the worst Right Sector lunatic would want. Uncle Sam has basically crushed every EU attempt at a negotiated outcome. This is most definitely not Putin’s fault or the fault of the poor people of Novorossiia, but there can me no more hope for a reasonable negotiated settlement.
Russia has to act now and used her armed forces to liberate Novorossia. Not to do so would be a betrayal of the Russian people.
My brain tells me that Putin will give the order to do so very soon. But the memories of Bosnia haunt me. So far Putin’s track record is excellent, pretty close to perfect. But for all my support for his policies, I never *trusted* him, at least not fully. Honestly, I cannot image what will happen if he does not give the order to move in because if he fails to do so he would be giving up on the entire strategic plan of what I call the Eurasian Sovereignists to “resovereignize” Russia and liberate her from the AngloZionist Empire. I cannot and do not want to believe that 14 years of struggle involving a great deal of dangers and, at times, truly superhuman efforts will now go to waste. And yet I have this knot sitting there inside my gut and that knot gets worse and worse with each lame and vapid statement coming out of the Kremlin.
The US is hell-bent on war with Russia and the EU has completely sold out. Nothing new here, the European elites *always* joined in what I call a “Ecumenical anti-Russian coalition” with the SOB of the day against Russia: they did so when the Papacy launched a crusade on Orthodoxy, they did so under Napoleon, they did so during the Crimean War and they did so during the Third Reich. So now that Eurotrash is on the side of Uncle Shmuel (a more accurate name for Uncle Sam, don’t you think?). What else is new?
This latest war might not be a “hot” one (although I really would not put anything past the AngloZionsit 1%ers), but it sure will be total and merciless anyhow. And there is only one way to put and end to this: the Russian bear must bare his fangs, make an example with the Ukie Nazis and show these European imbeciles that Russia means business.
So please tell me that I am wrong and that when push comes to shove Putin will have willpower and courage to stand his ground against what I can only call a satanic coalition of the most evil ideologies and people I can think of. I fully supported Russia’s non-intervention right up until Saturday and Poroshenko’s speech, but that policy has been taken to its limits and, to my immense regret, it has failed, primarily due to the truly unbelievable cowardice and immorality of the European political leaders (may they all rot in hell for selling out their own people the way they did it!). It makes no sense to hope for a last minute miracle: those accursed EU bureaucrats did not find even a atom of dignity or decency inside themselves and as a result a full-scale Cold War v2 in Europe is now inevitable (the Bulgarians pushed their treachery one step beyond and under orders from MCCain agreed to stop the work on South Stream).
My brain tells me that Putin will give the order. Soon.
But I have that horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach.
Please tell me that Putin is not Milosevic.
Please tell me my worst fears will not come true.
The Saker
The Saker, take a look at this
http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_06_08/Poroshenko-at-crossroads-Ukraine-has-to-decide-who-to-side-with-US-or-Russia-Europe-9589/ .
Apparently (Der Spiegel) a lot of well-armed Chechens have joined the SE Ukraine. Maybe Putin is counting on them ..
They have already left after some 30 of their men got killed in the Donetsk airport.
Dearest Saker,
God bless you and your entire family. You are a very good and a concerned person.
May the Peace of Jesus (as) be on you. And, The Holy Ghost to soothe your soul.
Peace,
Mohamed.
To be sure, none of us can give you any assurances your worst fears will not come true.
Having suffered great losses in wars past, the Russians collectively understand the meaning of war. It is not the first choice of any rational person, and from some perspectives, the resort to war, even in defense, indicates the failure of all other efforts.
Putin et al are wise to pick the time and place when they offer the lives of Russian youth as a sacrifice to the interests of the Russian nation and those of their brothers and sisters in the Ukraine. These decisions need to be made soberly and unclouded by emotions. I believe the Russian leadership now knows fully well it can’t trust anything the Anglo-American cabal promises and it also knows that any influx of military supplies on behalf of the regime in Kiev will pose an even greater threat to Russia.
Glad see you change of heart. There are time for diplomacy, and wait, but it should be over by now. Weakness is not your countries best interest.
It also will be too late a year two from now, those battle harden NAZI Guards will cross porous Russia/Ukraine frontier, and cause havoc in Russia.
Saker – I’ve got the same knot…
I think Putin will respond with a ‘lightning strike’ which is just what the AngloZios want, so as to excuse their retaliation – providing cover for their collapsing economy. (No problem with that, BTW, – likely there is a cashless one-world currency all ready to roll out, but a 3rd Pearl Harbor is needed first.)
Ultimately this is about the Zios vs everyone else. It appears that Dr. Putin is the most influential leader who has not been either bought or assassinated.
John
I have to agree with all you said, Saker. My hope is that Putin has told Kiev that they have 24 hours (36?, whatever) to stop. If they do not, here we come.
Went to voice of Russia page but 404 not found
Hi Saker, if you want to use this personal analogy you started, Putin is not Milosevic. Milosevic was a lot more like Yeltsin. Serbia doesn’t have its Putin.
Milosevic was a pretty good tactician, but a horrible strategist, which in the end cost him everything. I don’t see Putin as a bad strategist, far from it.
For some comedic relief, I’m going to recycle and modify an old Cold War 1 joke (I’m sure you’ll be able to tell how the original went):
After WWIII there were only one Russian and one American soldier left alive on Earth. They met and agreed to settle with a duel. They both drew their pistols but the Russian drew faster and shot the American. The Russian blew the smoke from his pistol, turned around and started to walk away. Then another shot was heard and the Russian fell down dead. What happened?
…
A Bulgarian crawled out of the dead American’s ass and shot the Russian.
Oh he will do it, because the West will keep escalating until he does. So in a sense he will be forced to. But (as I have said here before) he will try and pick the best way, time and place for Russia. He is desperately trying to get his ‘ducks’ (military, political, economic) set up before he moves.
He knows full well that when he does it there will be total oil/gas/economic sanctions slapped on Russia. The US and EU have probably already printed them out ready for the moment.
That means no oil/gas sales, total banning of sales to Russia (that will include medicine as well as cars, machine tools, planes, spare parts, etc), total confiscation of Russian assets overseas, banning Russia from the monetary clearing house and so on … think Iran.
The fact that it will eliminate whatever is left of the EU economies is irrelevant, as I have also said the EU ‘leaders’ are totally owned by the US and will sacrifice their economies and people quite happily. Some of them have probably already planned putting their countries under martial law, to suppress all dissent based by the following economic collapse.
So when it happens and it will because the West is determined to make it happen…and will provoke and escalate until it does (eg by NATO invading Crimea in the end). All hell is going to break loose.
For one example, taking the world biggest oil exporter out of the World market will raise oil prices to what… $150, $200, $250 a barrel??? So not only will EU economies be toast, but so will the rest of the World’s.
This will be the greatest crisis the World has seen since WW2. This is the big one boys and girls.
None of us can give you any assurance that your fears will be come true.
Please keep in mind that the Russians know fully well from their history what war means.
From some perspectives violence even in defense represents the failure of all other efforts to resolve political problems.
Putin et al need to make their decisions in all sobriety before they sacrifice young Russian lives in the interest of Russia and their brothers and sisters in the Ukraine. I believe the Russian leadership now knows without a doubt that it can’t trust anything the Anglo-American cabal says and knows that Russia can’t consider itself secure with any meaningful flow of military supplies to the regime in Kiev.
I don’t comment much here, because I don’t feel I am qualified to add much to the discussion. However, the prediction I made a month ago still stands:
“If Russia does not intervene (as I believe is most likely), it retains the moral high ground by avoiding military action unless an attack on Russian soil is imminent. The Banderists will be in charge. They will crank up the propaganda, and win many more converts. Ukraine will become a Nazi state, but if it tries to install NATO or nuclear weapons, Russia will bomb them on the spot. Life will be especially hard for Jewish people and Russian speakers left behind. There will be a large diaspora to prosperous Russia, which will share its largess by offering instant citizenship, subsidized housing and other benefits. It’s the least it could do.
If Russia intervenes militarily, for anything less than a complete bloodbath, we will come far too close to WWIII, with results far to dangerous to predict. Of course I prefer the first outcome. Sometimes, you just have to turn the other cheek.”
If Putin does decide to act militarily, he most certainly will not tell us about it until after the order is given.
sorry for the repeats, didn’see the message indicating it was saved
Bulgaria has ordered the halt of the construction of the South Stream pipeline.
http://rt.com/business/164588-brussels-bulgaria-halts-south-stream/
Have you ever had a post which exposes many of the specific details and anecdotes of what you learned, being a UN insider, during the Bosnian war?
There have actually been many UN officers who’ve been quoted, have written on, and testified at the ICTY about Bosnian Muslims tactics: about how they provoked Serbs, often from near UN compounds, on hospital grounds, etc., as well as they staged attacks, including killing civilians in Sarajevo. UN officers also testified that the Bosnian Muslim snipers used the buildings along the infamous “Sniper’s Alley” and yet despite all they witnessed – and even British diplomat Lord David Owen witnessed a Bosniak mortar attack which killed civilians near to him (it was actually timed as he was getting out of his car) in order to blame Serbs – the mainstream media as well as the general population around the world still believe all the propaganda.
I also wonder if you spend any time commenting on articles still pushing the lies and propaganda on the war. There’s a current article by Ed Vuillamy(sp) (longtime anti-Serb propagandist) ostensibly about a Bosnian Muslim football star and BiH going to the world cup as uniting the country, yet most of the article rehashes the lying, demonizing propaganda against the Serbs with no exposure of Bosnian Muslim or Croat atrocities against Serbs or each other. The whole article really looks to me as a way to strongly recycle the anti-Serb propaganda.
Personally I think all of you insiders as well as people who served in BiH or the Balkans should have some collective website where eyewitness accounts, as well as UN documents which expose the truth hidden by the mainstream, are available to the public and researchers on the net.
And of course any photos or videos (personal or official) to illustrate the evidence, as well as any maps, sketches, statistics not available to the public to this point.
I also think you should be correcting other blogs and articles or those spouting propaganda. You can use your superior insider knowledge against the hacks and ignorants.
I’m sure none of us know the answer to your plea. Know I sure don’t.
The Anglo/zionist pawns have put something on my page at twitter and I can’t even go there to get inside information. What I have been able to find at various websites is grim indeed. My adopted town of Slavyansk took a warlike beating today and I cried like a little kid.
More and more voices in Russia are speaking out that this can’t go on any longer. Some of these voices are very close to Putin.
Of course the money sector wants nothing done.. the magic word
Sanctions
The EU via Brussels is 100% zionist, no way Russia will get a break from there. Even if Germany wanted to do something they are occuppied by US military/ aka NATO. How they allowed themselves to be blackmailed into this place I will never understand.
We just have to wait and see Saker. The ball is in Russia’s court.
karin
Saker, I don’t understand the radical change in your analysis.
Before you were saying that time is on Russia’s side, let the Ukraine collapse, etc…
Poroshenko’s inauguration speech was neither unexpected nor did it change anything. What did you expect him to say? What did Novorussia expect? What did you expect that a newly Ukie president would say when you wrote that time is on Russia’s side?
Okay, Russia said that they will control the border. But what did you expect them to do? The border is wide open, so they announce that they will control the border stronger, since there is no Ukraine control of the border. So what? We can’t yet assume that it means that Russia will cut all help to anti-fascist Army.
And one more thing about Poroshenko. So he made his speech two days ago, wouldn’t it be perceived as counterproductive to immediately demonize Proroshenko without first having given him a chance? I’m not saying that Russia has any illusions about Poroshenko, I’m just saying that it would be counterproductive to demonize him right after his inauguration speech.
But I agree about the Bulgaria news. They are pretty bad.
@Anonymous:Glad see you change of heart.
Right. I knew that some cretin would post that or something similar. Dude, “there is a [correct] time for everything” and the only reason why you think that I had a change of heart is because you never understood what I said in the first place.
So, for all the boneheads out there:
Putin was RIGHT to wait until Poroshenko’s election and until Merkel could talk to him. It was his direct duty to seek a negotiated outcome and that outcome was at least in theory possible until Poroshenko did not have “blood on his hands”. Now Poroshenko does.
Is that really so hard to understand?!
The Saker
Saker,
Poroschenko already changed his speech in only one day. In the German press the propaganda is slowing down, please calm down too.
Putin is not Milosovic!
But it will take more time than it is affordable. But it is a decision for the whole world.
Kind regards
And the specter of Doom starts to fall over us all:
This is a First Strike positioning by the US:
US Air Force Sends 2 B-2 Stealth Bombers To The UK
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-08/us-air-force-sends-2-b-2-stealth-bombers-uk
Your gut is right – and your earlier analysis “Why Russia will not intervene” still applies.
Rilke said “States are the coldest of cold beasts”.
The new cold war desired By the Us would damage Russias prospects much more than any atrocities / perceptions Kiev will bei able to generate before it runs out of money .
@sasy
Remove space at the end.
A very frightening prospect, Saker, if true. Having a totally subjugated Ukraine with NATO forces right on the border with Rostov on the Don is not just stabbing the NovoRassians in the back, it is a knife in the Russian state and people. Russia would garner no ally in the future as who could trust her help them if she wont help herself? But I find it hard to believe that Russia would back Syria to the hilt and against enormous pressure, only to stab herself in the back.
So let us ask ourselves, what plan Putin could have in mind that requires him to act as he is now? If he plans an intervention, is their an advantage to total and complete surprise? And does Russia need to intervene to save the East? Did Putin REALLY close the border? Could the large number of “border guards” be people being smuggled into the east?
My impression is that Putin has decided an overt invasion is just too costly. But he will not abandon East Ukraine and might think that the LESS media attention it is getting the more covert help he can smuggle in.
Of course, the worst is possible. I hope this is one of the very few times you’ve been wrong.
@123abc: Saker, I don’t understand the radical change in your analysis.
Before you were saying that time is on Russia’s side, let the Ukraine collapse, etc…
Time *IS* on Russia’s side. But not on the side of the dying people of Novorossia. The problem is in the degree of escalation in the past 48 hours. It’s just like Hegel wrote, quantitative changes eventually result in qualitative changes.
Russia CAN wait to solve the Banderastan problem as a whole.
But the people of Novorossia need help *NOW*.
Is that clear now or is my view still somehow cryptic?
Cheers,
The Saker
Disagree. No order of Putin.
He has outlined his approach in the press conference on June 6:
http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/22457
Check how often he is talking about economical ties with Ukraine. Clearly a bait. Meeting Ukraine halfway when it comes to gas prices etc. etc.
But also the clear statement that the bloodshed must cease. To repeat this after the inauguration speach was a clear reminder and Poroshenko as reacted accordingly. So here we are back in the economy.
What is irritating though are the other parts of Poroshenkos speach, e.g. the EU Membership. Putin was clear in his press conference what would happen in this case and I bet, he said the same in the conversation with Poroshenko. That the new president of Ukraine preferred to insist on the EU orientation is surprising. After all he might need to backpedal one day … unless he calls for a Referendum and – unfortunately and surprisingly – the people of Ukraine decline this EU way.
Both Poroshenko and Putin are no fools and both are not easily fooled about. But in particular Poroshenko will need all his skills to walk the line without alienating some Nationalist too much.
And no, Putin won’t act anytime soon. Just remind Poroshenko every now and then what he is supposed to do and appart of that he will Hand out goodies once certain steps are reached …
I hope that your gut feeling is deceiving you. I hope Russia will act. But I don’t know. Yes, Putin’s record is almost perfect. But I see too much treason everywhere in our times Is he really what he seems to be? I don’t know. I want to hope so. We will know very soon however. But I have a bad feeling for all mankind: I have a feeling that we are doomed. We have gone astray, far, far away from God. The “civilization” that we have built is a processing machine whose function is to make us forget God. That is what they call “le déchainement de la matière” on dedefensa.org. That is what is wrong with us, and I don’t give mankind many chances to weather that storm.
Stlli hoping,
salam
Abdnour
I also held out some naive hope that Poroshenko’s cupidity might have swayed his position to a more sensible stance once “elected.” But it seems he’s tied his fortune to the paymasters who put him there, despite the pretty obvious signs that the Empire is foundering. Not many passengers swam towards the Titanic, but for some reason the belief that the Empire is unsinkable is persistent.
The situation is ominous, and I agree that Putin has to do something- the question is what?
Putin has seen this coming- the Empire’s plans and tactics have been obvious for many years. He’s had time to prepare, and no doubt has been. The best plans are the unexpected ones.
The Empire tends to follow a certain “playbook” and seems to assume that everyone else does, too. The Empire also seems incapable of recognizing its own weaknesses. Megalomaniacs can survey the vast horizons but cannot grasp the idea of their own irrelevance.
I don’t know what Putin has planned, of course, but I believe he has been planning for this for a long time, and the optimist in me has to believe that he’s ready.
Expect the unexpected, I think.
Please remember that, nominally, what is happening in Ukraine is Ukrainians killing Ukrainians.
Eastern Ukraine is not Russia.
But there is a problem. One of the most disgusting things I have ever seen in my entire life, if not the most disgusting, was the interview with Obama side-by-side with Poroshenko. The things Obama said were unconscionable. What I mean by saying this is that Eastern Ukraine is not the United States either. Yet, it is being treated as if it were part of the United States. Completely.
So the situation is asymmetric.
And I guess the answer to what will happen next is contained in the minds of the people who voted against Europe. Will they go missing if Putin invades?
I think not. I think they will applaud it.
Putin will act.
The Saker, take a look at this
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_08/Ceasefire-must-be-ensured-in-eastern-Ukraine-coming-week-Poroshenko-0944/
and this
http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_06_08/Poroshenko-at-crossroads-Ukraine-has-to-decide-who-to-side-with-US-or-Russia-Europe-9589/
or this
http://voiceofrussia.com/
Oldskeptic 08 June, 2014 22:14,
Much truth in that but I think Russian tanks can roll into Lvov tomorrow and a Russia soldier can step across the border and slap a Polish officer in the face and you STILL wont see that level of sanctions.
To The Saker and All Others
I am as disappointed and saddened by all this as most of you but I have long felt that Russia is dealing with the West from a position of pronounced weakness, including military weakness. If this hypothesis is accepted, the past four years of world politics becomes crystal clear. For example, capitulation on Iran (by withholding vital defense equipment and back-stabbing Iran), inaction on Libya, lack of response to the re-colonization of Africa, inability to stop the military encirclement of Russia, lack of response to US naval buildup in the Black sea even to the extent of accepting naval presence beyond the 21 days allowed under international treaties, and the handling of the Ukrainian events all show weakness, not strength. Now I know many of you tried to explain away the Ukrainian crisis as “astute chess moves” on part of Mr. Putin’s part, but I never accepted that. War is war and chess is chess, let us remember. Yes, in war there is sometimes a need for strategic withdrawal and sometimes to just wait and watch, but I don’t think either is the strong response when encirclement by enemy forces is underway. Mr. Putin is an honorable man, but he is holding a very weak hand. Russia is beset by a number of problems, many of them of a complex socio-psychological nature. The inability to counter enemy propaganda, the inability to present one’s case to the court of world opinion, a society harboring various kinds of fifth columns (foreign NGOs are a case in point), a society that is divided even when there is critical need to close ranks, a society whose youth looks westward and is alienated from its own roots, corruption, inefficiency – these are the problems that Russia, like any other third world country, faces. I mean no disrespect by the words “third world”; I identify with the third world. In the transition from communism to ‘something else’ Russia destroyed its State; and for that grievous error it will pay a price for a long, long time to come. China, by contrast, handled that transition keeping its State and structures intact. So let us hope for the best but we must understand why things may not go well.
I’m sure you remember that Putin visited Valaam monastery in late April. I personally interpreted this as a visit to Russia’s holiest site to seek advice and strength for the trials he knew would come. It seems that those trials have arrived. Putin’s faith is being tested, the Russian population’s faith is being tested, and the Ukrainian people’s faith is being tested.
I believe there is still a short time (perhaps a week or so) until Putin intervenes, assuming no major escalation of violence. More civilians will die at the hands of the mass murderers in Kiev, EU and US, and the world is increasingly watching and cracks in the evil empire are opening up.
In any case, eastern Ukraine cannot be conquered solely by cowardly artillery and air strikes against innocent men, women and children, which Poroshenko knows all too well. Troops on the ground are needed and they are not in place. Any move in that direction will be the trigger event in my opinion.
Saker, I too am both saddened and angered. Such injustice is hard to accept. Let us pray that God will give Mr. Putin the patience and strength to win this battle against evil, and may Sun Tzu be strategic advisor.
I’m afraid that knot in your stomach is the truth rearing its ugly head, Saker. Putin’s every move since annexing Crimea has been an abandonment of the people of E. Ukraine with a clear call for their surrender to the Fascists. What this really proves is that we can never put our trust in any Leader no matter what good intentions they may display.
Russia has never needed to invade Ukraine to stop the bloodshed there. A few air sorties could relatively easily destroy most if not all of the exposed artillery and rockets being used in this murder campaign. The Nazi Guard and the regular Ukrainian Army would have no where to seek safety but in Kiev.
I hope I am wrong but it appears we will sit and watch while the People of E Ukraine are shelled into submission while no one lifts a hand in their defense.
@Saker – I’m confused as to why you seem to see it as an either/or dichotomy – either full-scale overt intervention or abandon the people of the Southeast?…
Much better solution IMO would be to simply ratchet up assistance for the resistance – both in terms of sending more advanced weapons and irregular fighters. From what we know this is likely happening already. Some air support *might* be needed as a last resort, but it should be the people of Novorossiya themselves who do most of the fighting.
I think a better solution would have been if Yanukovych had set up a legitimate government in exile with Russian support which claimed authority over the whole country, but likely Putin didn’t have faith in his leadership. That ship’s long sailed now anyway.
Dear Saker,
I know, it is easy to get very emotional with all the horrible things going on in Novorossiya, and depressed by the abysmal lack of compassion and human decency, let alone attention to what is really happening, exhibited by the European leadership and the European media. That however is hardly surprising given their lamentable past track record. But I would not doubt that Vladimir Vladimirovitch Putin, having come so far and done so much to put Russia back on her feet since 1999, will do the right thing when it comes to the developments in South East Ukraine. Besides, that candy-assed Poroshenko is talking about getting back Crimea, and that is a casus belli right there. Russia can only bend backwards so far, what with a looming massive refugee crisis and the prospect of Nato troops and missiles stationed close to Moscow on her Western border, before dealing a decisive blow to the lunatics who run the asylum in Kiev. Consistently, Putin has been a man of few words, as you will recall with his covert infiltration of polite men in green into the Crimea before calling for a referendum and reunification with Russia. He delivered a brilliant speech in the Kremlin only After the fact. So I would not be deafened by the silence from Moscow at this time. Likewise the tightening of the border is probably just a tactical feint, a form of maskirovka for which the Russians are justly famous. It seems to me that Novorossiya is the one area where the Russians cannot compromise without eventually putting their own safety at risk. As for a new Iron Curtain I still have doubts that most Europeans will buy into it at the cost of a few percentage points in GDP growth, when their economies are already teetering on the edge of depression.
Lastly your calling Uncle Sam Uncle Shmuel is not in very good taste, as the Anglo component of the Empire Government can certainly make plenty of very aggressive and destructive decisions without the help of the powerful zionist lobby. In fact I would not be surprised if some day they decided to throw their Jewish friends under the bus in order to save their own skins. Also as you yourself reminded your readers not so long ago there are principled Russian Jews who are taking a very firm patriotic stance in all of this Ukrainian business, like Soloviev and Gordon. Blaming Jews for everything is as old as the world it seems, but it won’t solve anything. As the old joke goes a little bit of antisemitism is a good thing, but too much of a good thing can be a bad thing and detrimental to one’s health in the end.
Kind regards and warm wishes,
American Russophile
PS I made a typo in my last comment, the Russian chocolate which is far superior to Roshen is Korkunov and not Gorkunov.
@American Russophile,
I have to agree, the uncle Schmuel crack was uncalled for; i felt a visceral revulsion to that. The major players in the UK and US that foment these types of actions are the Old Anglos (Saker’s term), and let’s not forget the BND’s dirty role in the maidan fake protest movement (klitcho is their boy).
Saker — With much less knowledge and expertise, I too have gone through the same conversion regarding Russia’s intervention — and also fear the worst and hope for the best. Given what you’ve seen (and frankly what you’ve sacrificed career-wise) it would be very difficult for you to NOT have these fears. It’s disheartening to watch humanity make the same horrible mistakes, time and again. Marcus Aurelius said “Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one.” The only thing we can do is our highest sense of right. And leave the rest to God.
Onward and upward. AGS
Yes, you are correct that the history of the planet is being decided right now over the Ukraine mess at least for the next 100 years. That is no exaggeration. No, Putin realizes it and is playing for time. Borders can be closed and that can mean nothing. The US can’t even control its own borders so to expect Russia to do so is ridiculous and they know it. I will consult my military experts to see what they have to say and get back to you. Putin is not going to give any advanced warning so forget that illusion. His demand has always been that the Kiev folks open a dialogue with the Donbass folks and stop shelling civilians.
Russia is supposed to take the role of president of the UN Security Council which “involves calling the meetings thereof, approving the provisional agenda ( proposed by the Secretary General), presiding at its meetings and overseeing ANY crisis. The President usually speaks to the press on behalf of the Security Council.” Wikipedia source.
Saker,
I appreciate your concern. Still, two things:
1- Putin said clearly he would look at Poroshenko’s deeds, not his words. I just read that he ordered a ceasefire. Let’s see where that goes especially as he realizes no one wants to talk to him. Putin’s point during the Normandy visit was clear: immediate ceasefire. In return, he’ll close the border on his side. Let’s see where that goes.
2- In the worst case, yes, Putin would allow the slaughter to continue too long. Yet Russia will intervene either clandestinely or openly.
I disagree with how you broaden the scope of the Ukraine decisions to stopping the Anglo-American empire worldwide. There is a Eurasian or multipolar axis growing as a counterweight to US exceptionalism, but this still needs 10 to 20 years to grow into a decent size. The US establishment still has lots of ammunition to try to thwart this, and Ukraine is only one battle.
Once there was a man who said he wouldn’t let what happened to the Palestinians, happen to his people…
No matter how many Ukrainians are killed, it will never be enough for the collective ‘Western leadership’ to feel sympathy, let alone understand why Russia would act unilaterally.
These are testing times, but not lost times. Day by day Yats’ men are prov ng why it’s not good to have right wing killers on your side.
What would you do when you see the pictures of ‘your’ side, your men and women, your children being slaughtered by mindless thugs?
Take it from there.
If the legions of anti-Kiev freedom fighters don’t swell beyond their capacity…, I personally don’t care. Every ff-ing able man should be fighting by now. You can’t sit on your hands and look left or right for someone else to do the bidding for you.
Russia should provide sophisticated weaponry, so the FF can defend themselves [properly], but this is an internal fight.
Do it the Chicago way
“The US is hell-bent on war with Russia and the EU has completely sold out”.
The US is indeed hell bent on war with Russia, but not with their own regular troops. They are hoping Russia would take the bait and intervene militarily in order for them to create another Afghanistan for Russia right on her own doorstep with their army of murderous mercenaries that will end up spilling over into Russia itself. The psychotic neo cons in Washington have managed to convince themselves that the missile defence shield they are setting up in Europe will protect them from the consequences of a nuclear first strike against Russia. This is and has always been the sole purpose of this so called missile defence shield. As to why president Putin is taking an almost supine attitude towards all this is simply beyond me. One of the grievances the Russians expressed towards their western “partners” is that Russia has often been tricked by them in the past often to Russias detriment,and I can only pray that in the matter of Ukraine Russia is not being tricked by them yet again. I say this because Im getting a strong feeling of undercurrents going on between president Putin and the various European “leaders” that we the general public are not privy to. I hope I am wrong but Im getting the feeling that the EU may have offered him some sort of deal over Ukraine, something like maybe “you support the presidential elections and call for the rebels to delay their referendum etc, etc, and we make sure the fighting ends blah blah blah”. Something along those lines Im thinking, but you cannot make a deal with the devil because ultimately its not down to the EU its good old uncle sam whos pulling the strings. I fear the Russians are being too cultured and civilized towards the “west” as these barbarians see it as sign of weakness. They only understand and respect the language of force. I do very sincerely hope Russia is not caught napping yet again as the hounds of hell are now at its door.
I think your flip flop in your reasoning for Russia to enter into war is unwarranted. It is an imperfect world and there is no perfect outcome for this conflict for Russia.
I think your previous analyses were correct – there are no positive long-term outcomes from Russia entering into war with Ukraine or the West. Maybe some temporary satisfaction, but no long term goals will be solidified.
If Russia enters into war, the only outcome will be a long-term bleeding as Western-funded guerilla efforts by radicals would fight on for months and maybe years to come. Economic isolation from the west would be guaranteed.
In the end, the Novorossiya rebellion will either peter out, if there is insufficient groundswell support; or it will be successful on its own, if the popular support exists. Its success or failure won’t depend primarily on Putin, but rather on the support and unity of the people in that region itself.
Regardless of some presidential speech in Kyiv, nothing will change with Crimea. Crimea is once again part of Russia – and will continue to be part of Russia. No worries there.
What can the rebels do? If they believe they have the support of the people, the best approach going forward for the rebels is to keep fighting until Ukraine realizes they need to negotiate a peace.
But in my opinion, the rebels need to better define what they are fighting for. It is not enough to say that they are fighting against something – modern day Nazis or bad guys from the West. They need to rally around an ideal that they cannot attain as citizens in modern day Ukraine.
It is my opinion that the USA intends to strike Russia militarily as possible and it is looking to provoke a major war.
The USA is bankrupt and cannot afford its military and the thinking might be it is now or never
Maybe you should quit watching the events with the millisecond and the millimeter as measuring units. For your own good and the sake of analysis as it makes you way too emotional when reason should be your only guide. Nothing of magnitude will happen overnight and in absence of suffering, nothing along human history ever has. As sad and cynical as it may sound.
The last thing Russia needs to do is what the whole scheme is designed to for it will then have shown its weakness.
Maybe time for a gas gambit by closing the tap to the EU. Russia will suffer, Europe much more and maybe wake up.
Saker said: “Is that clear now or is my view still somehow cryptic?”
What did you expect in your earlier analysis from last week(s)? Didn’t you anticipate that Ukies would be bombing civilians and that a humanitarian catastrophe would result from it? Of course people from Novorussia would die, innocent children and women. What did you expect? Odessa was the last proof that showed that this humanitarian catastrophe would be inevitable, and it was already more than a month ago.
Already after Odessa it was clear that Putin was bluffing with his red line and that he is willing to accept civilian deaths – the question is for what? You insinuate that he does so because of weakness or because he “sold out”. I choose to believe that he does so for the greater good.
And where is it writ large that Russia isn’t helping already? Didn’t Juan recently report that Novorussia soldiers regularly find weapons that they need?
Look, I’m not attacking you at all. I’m just saying that none of what recently happened contradicts your initial analysis, therefore I don’t understand your change of heart.
It is so easy to agree with you, Saker, but I can’t help wondering if the ready access we have to all of the terrible videos showing the carnage are not a constant reminder that while we are praying for the people of Ukraine, that access is being given to us here in the US by the very powers that be that want Russia to enter the conflict.
If they didn’t want us to see what is happening, it would be easy enough for them to shut it all down, but it is in their interest to stir up our helpless emotions and have us put pressure on Russia to ramp up the violence.
There has to be a different course of action, and I won’t call the shots – I can’t call the shots – for Putin to do what the US clearly wants him to do.
You have a lot of experience, and I can’t counter your arguments except for one I saw that I think Veritas put up yesterday on a link. I didn’t agree completely with the tomato bubble or whatever it was, but the example he gave was of Afghanistan, where Russia’s involvement eventually brought down the USSR because while they went in and installed pro-Russian administrators, the resistance fighters then could be armed by the US, so that the resulting war was definitely harder on the populace than if Russia had not gone in.
If Russia doesn’t go in, that will put the US in the position that Russia was in then. There could well be very soon universal Ukrainian resistance to the US installed regime, even if, especially if, the US props it up. It’s horrible for Ukraine either way, but this could unite the country against foreign interference, and that would be a very good thing.
I don’t think it reflects on Putin because I believe he wants the best solution for all Russians and those of Russian heritage. And just as Russia has to be able to ‘get along with the west (and vice versa) so too those two diverse peoples must be able to do so as well, and be an example to the rest of the world. As I said before, both are celebrating Pentecost today, even if in different churches.
And meanwhile, the important work to shift the balance of power back to a humanitarian oriented civilization can proceed.
Putting all our hopes and fears in the lap of Mr. Putin is doing the man a disservice. We all have to stand and face this ugly beast. If he falls or fails, say a prayer for him, he has earned it. He’s been fighting a hard fight for a time now. True, Putin holds a position where he can do more than any of us, but the stress must be awful.
God bless him, though, and you too Saker for this blog and all your insights.
Thanks you the Saker for the great reports and interpretation of current events.
I am new to your great blog, but you get one more Serbian follower.
My fears are same as yours. I now how I feel about Milosevic betrayal, he get what he deserve but our brave people because of his stupid action are slave to EU and USA.
I’ve invested great hopes in Putin as a last defense of orthodoxy, but he never believed fully because I learned in life is to never trust any political, Serbia is great place to learn that lesson in hard way…
But as time goes by my hope is slowly dying. If at the end he despised his word, despised his red line which is underlined, and left his people like sheep before wolves, then Russia deserves the same fate as Serbia
Thanks you the Saker for the great reports and interpretation of current events.
I am new to your great blog, but you get one more Serbian follower.
My fears are same as yours. I now how I feel about Milosevic betrayal, he get what he deserve but our brave people because of his stupid action are slave to EU and USA.
I’ve invested great hopes in Putin as a last defense of orthodoxy, but he never believed fully because I learned in life is to never trust any political, Serbia is great place to learn that lesson in hard way…
But as time goes by my hope is slowly dying. If at the end he despised his word, despised his red line which is underlined, and left his people like sheep before wolves, then Russia deserves the same fate as Serbia
To all the Anglo-Zionist shills (who come here and attack Saker whenever there’s a whiff of doubt or fear expressed), just BITE ME. To answer the question “What Putin has been waiting for”? Putin was waiting for ME and millions of others LIKE ME throughout the world to WAKE UP. Guess what. Here I am. Fully FUKING awake. Guess what else. No matter the outcome I’ll STILL BE AWAKE to your lies, deceit and mendacity — aka Anglo-Zionist evil. And I promise to spend the rest of my life AWAKE defending myself and my loved ones against the evil that Anglo-Zionists represents. So there you go. Give yourselves a BIG pat on the back. Cause you azz-hats helped Putin to turn the likes of me against YOU. Mazel-tov Bitches. AGS
June 16th is the probable date that Russia takes Presidency of the UN Security Council.
I agree with Saker and disagree with him at the same time. My heart and my conscience says – Putinn should give the order. Then, my brain asks, “What will happen, if the West responds by giving a similar order?” The Saker seems to share my opinion that the US is trying to provoke Russia to initiate a direct confrontation. Russia tries to avoid it. If a direct confrontation occurs and escalates, the number of casualties and environmental consequences will be much greater than the negative outcomes of atrocities in Ukraine. And, of course, Russia may not be able to win, and China may not be willing to join, at which point all hope for a better world will be lost forever or, at least, for a very long time. So now, I have a double knot in my stomach. Perhaps, Russia has something in the sleeve. Something like: Poroshenko is Putin’s man. He has investments and businesses in Russia, he financed the Right Sector which opposed Ukraine’s membership in the EU, he replaced Yanukovych who was corrupted and ineffective, he won with Victoria Nuland candidates, he said “no negotiations with Russia but, at the same time, Yatseniuk noted that Ukraine cannot do without Russian gas and the EU stated , “We are not ready to accept Ukraine’s membership.” I will wait to see where his actions go rather than what he says in a political speech. He still has to “normalize” the country and neutralize the neo-Fascists.
Saker,
Part One:
First off, re: Poroshenko’s speech. We all know what he is, and also the various pressures upon him, primarily Uncle Shmuel (GREAT phrase, btw!) and Pravy Sektor essentially threatening his life should he not follow the party line. On the other side, the reality of Ukraine’s economic situation vis-a-vis Russia and the EU, plus of course his chocolate factories. He said what he had to say. How he will follow through, as Putin remarked, remains to be seen. Also, does anyone really know for sure if he actually has any control over the military… But mostly, relatively few politicians have a decent record at all of keeping their promises so in that sense it’s still a waiting game. Imo what bodes less well is whatever pressure McCain et. al. put on Bulgaria re: South Stream because this is primarily an economic war and Ukraine may not even be a pawn, just a square on the board with different utility for each side.
Which segues right into our feelings about that. Because of course Ukraine is more than that: we’re talking about *people* here and what’s been going on has been pretty fncking hideous. So, feeling: there isn’t a (non-hasbara) soul on this blog who isn’t writhing in agony at what’s been going on — we all share that even if our outlooks and opinions are all over the map. But thoughts and feelings literally come from two different parts of the brain (cerebral cortex and limbic system, respectively) and when they’re not in synch (a not exactly rare occurrence), I always find it helpful to use my feelings as a kind of exclamation point or danger sign — watch out, obviously something big’s going on but my analysis might get skewed if I don’t weight them right. So ultimately, while they’re the most profound part of me, I’ve still got to be very careful to neither pay them no heed nor weight them too highly. I.e., they’re just another data point to analyze and factor in, which you’ve pretty much done. But despite all our feelings here, facts are facts, and right now we’re — to continue the statistical analogy — still in the data-collection stage, damnit.
OK saker I will tell you. I think you over-reacted to Poroshenko’s inaugural speech. Poro is now in the process of putting together a new government. This will be action, not just words. If his new government continues to have Svodaba Party and Right Sector members I will join you in your despair. If that happens and the war against the east continues for another few weeks, I think Putin will put a stop to it.
Part Two:
So, closing the border, Mr. Nora believes, offers Russia two advantages: plausible deniability and keeping Ukies et. al. out. Also, while the car we purchased at the very same time the Union Trades Building went up in flames will always be named Odessa — I can’t look at it without seeing that strangled pregnant woman — and plenty of other atrocities have been and I am sure are right now being committed, in point of fact they haven’t yet (choke) reached the “massive” stage. Of course we all pray they don’t — and they may still — but they really haven’t yet. (And I’m saying that while having believed my entire life that any capital crime against any person for what they happen to have been born qualifies as a Holocaust: how can something that awful get worse just because there are more?)
But you yourself admit the risk of giving up on the long, hard struggle to resovereignize Russia — well, fighting a war-war against us, as crazy and over-armed as we are, with the best case scenario ending up stuck with sinking billions into rehabilitating a country that’s already a black hole of problems and debt, would certainly set back all the progress Russia has made, including the giant strides eastward this year alone. And that’s what this whole thing is really about — and Russia is winning, hands down. Now I’m no Cassandra, Lord knows, so I can’t possibly promise our worst fears won’t come true but, Saker, it ain’t over till it’s over and we’re not even at the end of the beginning. Paroxysms of absolute agony, fear, rage, horror, heartbreak for things we’ll never forget — at least I hope not, they’re signs at least we’re still human — and it’s damned hard to sit this out not even knowing what if anything we can do about it. But there’s no point expecting anyone to live up to *our* beliefs and standards except someone over whom we still have some parental controls, can in fact vote out of office in favor of someone who actually will represent us, or happen to have chosen wisely and married well. Putin, of course, is none of the above, ;~) and we’ve *all* got to remember that as we wait this one out.
I concur with the comment at 08 June, 2014 22:43. We are on the cusp of some sort of Russian intervention.
Whether it will take the form of ‘no fly zone’, ‘lend lease’ with DPR/LNR getting radar guided SAMs and self-propelled artillery guns through those wide open border crossings I don’t see the slightest signs of either Ukraine or Russia closing, I do not know.
Perhaps Putin knowing the US/EU/UK will scream bloody murder if he so much as shoots down even one Ukrainian Su-25 with S-400s will opt for a complete blitzkrieg that encircles or destroys all Ukrainian units east of Dnepropetrovsk within 72 hours. But something big is coming. Putin is not Milosevic and China knowing the current terror campaign in Xinjiang is not a coincidence is getting more and more overt in its support of Russia. Chinese support is something Milosevic never had even after NATO deliberately bombed the ChiCom embassy the Chinese were so weak they could only fume. Now they have the capability of at least sending humanitarian aid via the SCO, as Auslander suggested they will.
The Bulgaria Southstream cancellation, done at McCain’s apparent behest to boot, was a big ‘f you Gazprom and Putin this is the price you will pay for dumping the holy petrodollar we can force almost anyone to tear up contracts with you law and sanctity of contracts be damned’.
Of course the price of bribing the Bulgarians is cheap compared to bribing the Germans into tearing up Gazprom/neft contracts or French into killing the Mistral deal. Maybe all they had to promise was a few permanent US military bases and continued easy access for Bulgarian migrants to the UK and Schengen zone despite all the anti-EU and anti-mass migration parties making gains in the recent elections.
Don’t lose hope friends, the Nazi Guard and Right Sector beseiging Slovyiansk are going to get theirs. And no amount of Operation Storm repeat antics will succeed, even if they offer Western Ukrainians unheard of salaries to drill for shale gas outside the ruins of Slovyiansk the fact is they can’t stop the NAF underground from dispersing enough C4 into holes dug in village yards to blast every single gas line from the wellheads to the pumping stations for years to come. T
The ethnic cleansing plan/Operation Storm 2.0 RIA Novosti is now reporting is the Kiev/Banderite plan will fail, if only for that reason alone. But I expect Russia to drop the hammer before they can complete the ethnic cleansing of Slovyiansk via this Geneva Conventions defying war criminal siege. Russian media can’t very well report that the real Ukrainian plan is to terrorize hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians into fleeing their homes and accept Putin doing nothing!
American Kulak
Dear Saker,
I think you are being unfairly impatient with Putin. The Russian move across the border will be the trigger for massive and unending consequences. So far Putin has been extremely careful to operate within the bounds of international law, and if he has to break with these he will only do so having exhausted all other avenues.
He has considerable scope to exert pressure with his gas supplies, and will also want to give the maximum time for the recent atrocities to get airtime.
Only when all other routes have been found wanting will he fire the starting gun, after which all bets will be off for all of us.
Obama has stated that Krim is part of Ukraine, Poroshenko has repeated this. Nix on South Stream. This is war and Putin has been asked to surrender or fight. (can’t forget that the NSA probably has dirt on every European leader of importance – the better to blackmail with when simple bribery fails.) The US officials CLEARLY gave the green light for the violence and are supporting it short of overt commitment of troops. If the US wanted it to stop it would tomorrow. If Russia doesn’t intervene the Russian resistance will be killed or forced out into Russia or Crimea, then there will be an attempt to regain Krim. I say this not really believing what I am seeing. The only way I can make sense of the way the situation has escalated is to assume that Russia (and China’s) refusal to go along with bombing of Syria and removal of Assad resulted in a war faction gaining power behind the scenes in the US and they have decided now or never. (or then perhaps I am full of it and this is just one more terrible but ‘small’ conflict between major powers…) I sense that pulling back the troops from the border was taken as a sign of weakness. Horrified and disgusted to see this developing.
the pessimist
In the sewer that is the Western MSM, the atrocities in Novorossya have been completely suppressed. As far as the presstitutes are concerned ‘the terrorists’ are being defeated by the valiant Ukrainian army, fighting against ‘Russian aggression’. The Groupthink, as ever, is 100%. This is the first decisive battle of WW3. The Arab Spring atrocities, the destruction of Syria and Libya, the promotion of raving fascists like Abe in Japan (his off-sider, the near eponymous Aso, has, recently, openly advocated fascist rule in Japan, to absolute indifference in the ‘democratic’ West)and the upsurge in terrorist atrocities aimed at China, plus the orgy of hate-crazed lies about the non-existent Tian An Men ‘massacre’ show that the West is Hell-bent on war. Even the maniacal rhetoric surrounding the D-Day sideshow anniversary, with its deranged claims that this was the decisive battle of WW2, the total ignoring of the vastly greater Soviet contribution, even the reflex avoidance of that hated word ‘Soviet’ all point to an elite in the grip of some sort of group psychosis. Read ‘The Guardian’s ‘ editorial for a master-class in arrogant self-delusion and historical mendacity. If Putin hesitates, he will be destroyed. If he acts the mad-dogs may very well launch that sneak nuclear first-strike that has been their ambition for years. Talk about ‘a hard choice’.
I agree with Anonymous 08 June, 2014 22:54
As for Putin’s responses, perhaps it’s time for an asymmetrical response.
Ukraine has not had a good look into the abyss yet. But winter is coming and from what I’ve read, it’s going to be a cold one.
Yes, people are dying……… But Putin didn’t start this and the deaths are not at his door.
You say intervene, but your post on the what ifs STILL applies.
In the sewer that is the Western MSM, the atrocities in Novorossya have been completely suppressed. As far as the presstitutes are concerned ‘the terrorists’ are being defeated by the valiant Ukrainian army, fighting against ‘Russian aggression’. The Groupthink, as ever, is 100%. This is the first decisive battle of WW3. The Arab Spring atrocities, the destruction of Syria and Libya, the promotion of raving fascists like Abe in Japan (his off-sider, the near eponymous Aso, has, recently, openly advocated fascist rule in Japan, to absolute indifference in the ‘democratic’ West)and the upsurge in terrorist atrocities aimed at China, plus the orgy of hate-crazed lies about the non-existent Tian An Men ‘massacre’ show that the West is Hell-bent on war. Even the maniacal rhetoric surrounding the D-Day sideshow anniversary, with its deranged claims that this was the decisive battle of WW2, the total ignoring of the vastly greater Soviet contribution, even the reflex avoidance of that hated word ‘Soviet’ all point to an elite in the grip of some sort of group psychosis. Read ‘The Guardian’s ‘ editorial for a master-class in arrogant self-delusion and historical mendacity. If Putin hesitates, he will be destroyed. If he acts the mad-dogs may very well launch that sneak nuclear first-strike that has been their ambition for years. Talk about ‘a hard choice’.
I think Russia will increase its covert support with new toys and thousands of rebels.
No need for invasion. No need for the world to see Russian tanks/soldiers in the open rolling through Ukraine. Why aid the enemy with propaganda material?
Putin should declare that due to the circumstances in Ukraine and the forced drafting under threat to the draftees’ and their family’s lives in what Putin considers a war crime, Russia will now welcome those draftees and their close family members if they refuse to follow the criminal order to act against the civilian population, “thus sparing the life of the soldier and the civilians they are sent to kill”.
Dear Saker,
A brief comment since I am very busy and I intend to do a full piece on this issue on Da Russophile.
Briefly, I think a Russian intervention is inevitable and have done so from the outset of the crisis. I am on record as saying it would happen from the date of the coup back in February. However the political grounds have to be very carefully prepared since such an intervention must be (and must be seen to be not just internationally but also within Russia) as an act of last resort. Putin said as much in his interview of 4th March 2014. I think we are not quite there yet but Poroshenko’s election (which I never expected to change anything) has brought that a step closer.
I should say that I do not know what form that Russian military intervention will take. One strong possibility is an increase in arms supplies to the resistance (which is what I call the insurgents in the Donbas). With the border with Russia increasingly under resistance control that becomes possible. I would have thought that weapons (anti tank and anti aircraft missiles) would make a significant difference. Secondly there was an important though little reported meeting between Rogozin and Oleg Tsariev a few days ago in which they discussed steps to maintain military production in arms factories in the eastern Ukraine including the Donbas that supply weapons to Russia. I am fairly sure that this is a “plausibly deniable” means to provide financial aid and military supplies to the resistance without appearing to do so too openly.
Europe attention will be concentrated on the Soccer world cup which starts this thursday,and it will last an entire month.(of course in the US nobody cares about soccer).
It would be a good period to launch something.Also taking in consideration that NATO drills will take place in July(if I’m not wrong?).Though for Putin to intervene it is very soon or never more maybe?I do not see these NATO troups leaving Ukraine after their ‘drills’.Their drills could end up to be permanent for any reason(false flag if necessary to justify their stay forever in Ukraine).Negociations about the gaz bills will normaly be concluded in Brussels this monday,with a ‘positive’sign for both sides according to the french speaking press.
MSM are calming down their propaganda and in Europe they did not comment on a ‘supposed victory’for the West against Putin.
They are just switching their attention to other news.
Germany and France changed their attitude towards Russia last week after the G7(not the case of the US/UK).Putin got prime time interview(20 minutes)on french TV and RADIO channels..just after the visit of Sarkozy in Sotchy,where he met Putin.Something strange suddenly changed.The US are blakmailing France with a mega penalty(10 billions concerning BNP PARIBAS ops in the US).Obama tried to convince Hollande to cancel a big naval contract for Russia without success for the moment…Fabius French foreign affairs minister even said yesterday after returning from Kiev,that:Ukraine will not join the UE because he did not see any evidence that a majority of EU countries wanted Ukraine in the UE for the moment.About NATO he even said that Ukraine should stay neutral,and that it was also the position of the US(true or not?)
MSM are saying that poroshenko is willing to stop the military ops this coming week.
http://www.romandie.com/news/Ukraine-Porochenko-veut-mettre-fin-aux-combats-dans-lEst-cette_RP/485721.rom
But when things are calming a bit down….every time Mc Cain intervenes to relaunch a threat with a new blackmail(this time Bulgaria MUST not go ahead with a signed deal for southstream).
Who is the real president in the US?Obama or Mc Cain?
And of course the UE will soon start ‘sanctions’ against Bulgaria if they do not obey to the Empire orders..
OldSkeptic,
I think you’re right.
God, I wish I didn’t.
And as fracking finally makes good economic sense, we can kiss goodbye (what remains of) this once-beautiful land. And be forced to pay monopoly prices on water, too.
American Kulak
Left a message 4U on the second page of the Poroshenko post.
If this goes hot between USSA and Russia I beg the Russians to consider that there are vast areas of the US that do not condone the current intervention by what many Americans consider a foreign occupation of the US Federal government apparatus. Here’s hoping the first strike or retaliation targets may reflect this information.
@Anonymous 23:34
Grow a spine.
Time plays against Poroshenko. In order to get the money from the IMF to be ablke to pay what he owes Russia for the gas, he is asked to make tough and unpopular cuts in subdidies and to stop the violence in the East.
Russia is in no rush to intervene despite the murders of many opponents to Kiev in the East. Russia just want to limit the death toll until Poroshenko is squeezed and will ask for negotiation in a weak position.
Putin has a dilemma but I think he’ll wait.
Re: dates mentioned by Anonymous at 08 June, 2014 23:11 re: Russia taking presidency of the Security Council that Monday, my guess is Lavrov and Churkin already have resolutions ready to go presented to the Chinese calling for an immediate ceasefire and implementation of humanitarian aid corridors, immediate repairs to the destroyed civilian infrastructure of the Donbass such as water pipes and electrical lines, and the like. I expect that to be the last warning the West gets when the U.S. inevitably vetoes the resolution as ‘anti-Ukrainian’ and blames Russia for all of the violence. In between now and then I expect continued shelling but more brazen attacks by the NAF on the Ukrainian forces enabled by ‘Grandfather Frost’ and the wide open border. That would include NAF deploying remote rocket launchers, old fashioned WW2 vintage truck mounted Katyushas (that they can plausibly say came from the salt mines rather than across the border) or even some self-propelled guns counterbattery fire to give short term relief to Strelkov’s men. By June 21st the Ukrainians will either be backing off looking for a ceasefire or doubling down with their US-supplied hardware and more merc reinforcements.
Which leaves the date 22 June 2014. Anybody know what happened on that day in 1944? That would be a highly symbolic date to launch a Russian blitz on the UKR forces and hit them hard and fast.
American Kulak
Putin has ‘some’ time on his side and that time has to be used wisely.
As I said ages ago in much earlier threads, it is not whether there will be a Russian intervention, it is how and when. In that Russia has no choice, because (I keep repeating) the west will escalate until it does. Worst comes to worst, NATO troops will try invading Crimea.
What it has a choice in is the exact timing and method.
Putin still has a lot of moral (ie political), economic and military setup to do first. He has to keep pushing to get an EU (especially Germany) split, break the west’s MSM lockstep propaganda and so on.
And as hard as it may be to watch, greater and greater deaths and atrocities aid him in that key moral/political dimension.
We are not at the real crisis yet, I picked July or August and I’ll stick by that. He has until then to get set up for the inevitable conflict and the definite severe sanctions that follow. While fending off the chance of a potential nuclear First Strike (of which there are a frightening number within the US military/political/etc elites pushing for).
Key things are those NATO troops arriving in the Ukraine (for an ‘exercise’) in July and what they will do. Plus US military deployments, particularly their First Strike nuclear and anti-missile defence ones.
Just reposting this Saker – was on the other post you had yesterday about what Poroshenko said. Don’t loose faith – patience – very difficult times but he needs to tread very very carefully and there are other ways to attack without using military means.
In regard to the borders – have you not thought that the right sector nutters might not just enter Russia now the borders are open and do something stupid? I am sure they will let through those who need help.
Dear The Saker,
I thought this article was very interesting. This is how Russia will go “to war”. Not physically but economically and let Poroshenko and Co. deal with the fall out!
http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_06_08/Poroshenko-at-crossroads-Ukraine-has-to-decide-who-to-side-with-US-or-Russia-Europe-9589/
I still strongly believe Russia will keep its cool and “attack” Chocie Boy and his Nazi chums another way. So Chocie and USG have declared war – but the response will be very different to what they are hoping.
Rgds,
Veritas
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6UkVl3ZFuI
I wonder how many Belarussian ‘volunteers’ would join in an operation to clear Novorossiya?
American Kulak
“A Bulgarian crawled out of the dead American’s ass and shot the Russian.” I have a similar one, except it was a Serb crawling out of a bayoneted Turk’s ass who shot the Bulgarian in the back during the First Balkan War. Just over 100 years ago. Look, do not mistake the Bulgarian government as representative of the sentiments of the Bulgarian people. What happened today was a travesty and I feel humiliated that the whole world now knows that Bulgaria is a sovereign country in name only. Most Bulgarians feel this way too, and opinion polling proves that they are with Russia on the question of Ukraine. My heart goes out to the people and the brave opolchenchi of Novorossia in their fight against the nazi scum. I hope that knot in Saker’s stomach is a false alarm and Putin is the Russian patriot that I think he is. Otherwise may god help us all, for we will all be truly fucked otherwise. All of us regular people regardless of nationality.
@ Anonymous said… 08 June, 2014 21:56
(first comment on page)
> The Saker, take a look at this
http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_06_08/Poroshenko-at-crossroads-Ukraine-has-to-decide-who-to-side-with-US-or-Russia-Europe-9589/ .
I did. The most stupid text I ever read in last few weeks. The author writes as if both US and Russia thought how to kick butts of the greatest number of Ukrainians as possible. Only Ukies will be losers.
@ Juliana,
Q: but the example he gave was of Afghanistan, where Russia’s involvement eventually brought down the USSR…
R: Everything’s always caused by a mirage of events, so I won’t simplify it too much, but the following might be part of a greater understanding;
“Schweizer noted that at the heart of Reagan’s strategy was a sophisticated effort to exploit Soviet vulnerabilities, especially its economic vulnerabilities, which included: (1) covert financial and intelligence support to the Solidarity union in Poland and other opposition groups within the Soviet empire; (2) financial and military support to the Afghan resistance; (3) cooperative efforts with Saudi Arabia to drive down the price of oil, and limiting Soviet natural gas exports to the West, thereby reducing Soviet hard currency earnings; (4) a campaign to limit Soviet access to Western high technology; (5) a technological disinformation effort to help disrupt the Soviet economy; (6) a massive U.S. defense buildup, including the SDI program, to put more pressure on Soviet economic resources; and (7) financial, military and logistical support for anti-communist forces in several Third World countries. “Reagan,” concluded Schweizer, “did have a well-developed plan seeking the demise of the Soviet Union.”- American Diplomacy.
Personally, I don’t believe Raygun had to the brains to think this all through, but that can’t be said about the men that surrounded him.
I have said in the past that while America was playing checkers, Russia was playing chess. Diana Johnstone has corrected my opinion in her new article in Counterpunch.org (http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/06/06/washingtons-iron-curtain-in-ukraine/).
As she correctly points out, “Putin is widely credited as being ‘the best chess player’, who won the first round of the Ukrainian crisis. He has no doubt done the best he could, faced with the crisis foisted on him. But the U.S. has whole ranks of pawns which Putin does not have. And this is not only a chess game, but chess combined with poker combined with Russian roulette. The United States is ready to take risks that the more prudent Russian leaders prefer to avoid… as long as possible.”
The die has been cast now and certain issues settled. 1)Europe is America’s whore; 2)The American government is the whore of capital; 3)Capital’s need is to keep the paper dollar as the world’s reserve currency. It’s means are to create chaos. It’s goal is to command subservience.
Take your choice, feudalism or the dark ages.
Let Russia protect her own interests. It must be clear by now that no one in Europe or the Anglosphere has any good intentions–towards anybody or anything.
America will implode. It cannot sustain the excesses of its hubris. The only question remaining is if it will chose to destroy the whole world in the process.
And that’s my jeremiad for the day.
Milosevic sold out his own people against a promise
Actually, I think that must be a part of the calculus for Putin here: How will the people of *all* Russia be affected if Putin reacts militarily in Ukraine?
If making a military move in Ukraine stops the bloodshed there (no guarantee), but ups the misery for Russians in Russia, whose purpose has been served?
No good answers for Putin here… I think it’s going to have be boiled down to the greater good of the majority of Russians, and of the future of Russia, whatever that may be. It’s certain now that many Russians are going to be harmed, no matter what he decides – the only question for Putin now is where, and how many.