Deploying diplomatic skills refined from Doha to Moscow, the Taliban in 2021 has little to do with its 2001 incarnation
by Pepe Escobar with permission, and first posted at Asia Times
Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (center) and other members of the Taliban arrive to attend an international conference in Moscow on March 18, 2021. Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / AFP
A very important meeting took place in Moscow last week, virtually hush-hush. Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Security Council, received Hamdullah Mohib, Afghanistan’s national security adviser.
There were no substantial leaks. A bland statement pointed to the obvious: They “focused on the security situation in Afghanistan during the pullout of Western military contingencies and the escalation of the military-political situation in the northern part of the country.”
The real story is way more nuanced. Mohib, representing embattled President Ashraf Ghani, did his best to convince Patrushev that the Kabul administration represents stability. It does not – as the subsequent Taliban advances proved.
Patrushev knew Moscow could not offer any substantial measure of support to the current Kabul arrangement because doing so would burn bridges the Russians would need to cross in the process of engaging the Taliban. Patrushev knows that the continuation of Team Ghani is absolutely unacceptable to the Taliban – whatever the configuration of any future power-sharing agreement.
So Patrushev, according to diplomatic sources, definitely was not impressed.
This week we can all see why. A delegation from the Taliban political office went to Moscow essentially to discuss with the Russians the fast-evolving mini-chessboard in northern Afghanistan. The Taliban had been to Moscow four months earlier, along with the extended troika (Russia, US, China, Pakistan) to debate the new Afghan power equation.
On this trip, they emphatically assured their interlocutors there’s no Taliban interest in invading any territory of their Central Asia neighbors.
It’s not excessive, in view of how cleverly they’ve been playing their hand, to call the Taliban desert foxes. They know well what Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been repeating: Any turbulence coming from Afghanistan will be met with a direct response from the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
In addition to stressing that the US withdrawal – actually, repositioning – represents the failure of its Afghan “mission,” Lavrov touched on the two really key points:
The Taliban is increasing its influence in the northern Afghanistan border areas; and Kabul’s refusal to form a transitional government is “promoting a belligerent solution” to the drama. This implies Lavrov expects much more flexibility from both Kabul and the Taliban in the Sisyphean power-sharing task ahead.
And then, relieving the tension, when asked by a Russian journalist if Moscow will send troops to Afghanistan, Lavrov reverted to Mr Cool: “The answer is obvious.”
Mohammad Suhail Shaheen is the quite articulate spokesman for the Taliban political office. He’s adamant that “taking Afghanistan by military force is not our policy. Our policy is to find a political solution to the Afghan issue, which is continuing in Doha.” Bottom line: “We confirmed our commitment to a political solution here in Moscow once more.”
That’s absolutely correct. The Taliban don’t want a bloodbath. They want to be embraced. As Shaheen has stressed, it would be easy to conquer major cities – but there would be blood. Meanwhile, the Taliban already control virtually the whole border with Tajikistan.
New face of the Taliban: The insurgents’ spokesman Mohammad Suhail Shaheen speaks to media in Moscow on February 15, 2021.
The 2021 Taliban have little in common with their 2001 pre-war on terror incarnation. The movement has evolved from a largely Ghilzai Pashtun rural guerrilla insurgency to a more inter-ethnic arrangement, incorporating Tajiks, Uzbeks and even Shi’ite Hazaras – a group that was mercilessly persecuted during the 1996-2001 years of Taliban power.
Reliable figures are extremely hard to come by, but 30% of the Taliban today may be non-Pashtuns. One of the top commanders is ethnically Tajik – and that explains the lightning-flash “soft” blitzkrieg in northern Afghanistan across Tajik territory.
I visited a lot of these geologically spectacular places in the early 2000s. The inhabitants, all cousins, speaking Dari, are now turning over their villages and towns to Tajik Taliban as a matter of trust. Very few – if any – Pashtuns from Kandahar or Jalalabad are involved. That illustrates the absolute failure of the central government in Kabul.
Those who do not join the Taliban simply desert – as did the Kabul forces manning the checkpoint close to the bridge over the Pyanj river, off the Pamir highway; they escaped without a fight to Tajik territory, actually riding the Pamir highway. The Taliban hoisted their flag in this crucial intersection without firing a shot.
The Afghan National Army’s chief, General Wali Mohammad Ahmadza, fresh into his role by appointment from Ghani, is keeping a brave face: ANA’s priority is to protect the main cities (so far, so good, because the Taliban are not attacking them); border crossings (that’s not going so well), and highways (mixed results so far).
This interview with Suhail Shaheen is quite enlightening – as he feels compelled to stress that “we don’t have access to media” and laments the “baseless” barrage of “propaganda launched against us,” which implies that Western media should admit the Taliban have changed.
Shaheen points out that “it’s not possible to take 150 districts in just six weeks by fighting,” which connects to the fact that the security forces “do not trust the Kabul administration.” In all districts that have been conquered, he swears, “ the forces came to the Taliban voluntarily.”
A smoke plume rises from houses amid an ongoing fight between Afghan security forces and Taliban fighters in the western city of Qala-i- Naw, the capital of Badghis province, on July 7. The Taliban launched its first major assault on a provincial capital since the US military began its final drawdown of troops from the country.
Shaheen makes a statement that could have come straight from Ronald Reagan in the mid-1980s: The “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan are the real freedom fighters.” That may be the object of endless debate across the lands of Islam.
But one fact is indisputable: The Taliban are sticking by the agreement they signed with the Americans on February 29, 2020. And that implies a total American exit: “If they don’t abide by their commitments, we have a clear right of retaliation.”
Thinking ahead to “when an Islamic government is in place,” Shaheen insists there will be “good relations” with every nation, and embassies and consulates will not be targeted.
The Taliban “goal is clear: to end the occupation.” And that brings us to the tricky gambit of Turkish troops “protecting” Kabul airport. Shaheen is crystal clear. “No NATO forces – that means continuation of occupation,” he proclaims. “When we have an independent Islamic country, then we will sign any agreement with Turkey that is mutually beneficial.”
Shaheen is involved in the ongoing, very complicated negotiations in Doha, so he cannot allow himself to commit the Taliban to any future power-sharing agreement. What he does say, even though “progress is slow” in Doha, is that, contrary to what was previously reported by media in Qatar, the Taliban will not present a formal written proposal to Kabul by the end of the month, The talks will continue.
Going hybrid?
Whatever the “Mission Accomplished” non-denial denials emanating from the White House, a few things are already clear on the Eurasia front.
The Russians, for one thing, are already engaging the Taliban, in detail, and may soon strike their name off their terror list.
The Chinese, for another, are assured that if the Taliban commits Afghanistan to join the Belt and Road Initiative, connecting via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, ISIS-Khorasan will not then be permitted to go on overdrive in Afghanistan bolstered by Uyghur jihadis currently in Idlib.
And nothing is off the table for Washington when it comes to derailing BRI. Crucial silos scattered across the deep state must be already at work replacing a forever war in Afghanistan with hybrid war, Syria-style.
Lavrov is very much aware of Kabul power brokers who would not say “no” to a new hybrid war arrangement. But the Taliban for their part have been very effective – preventing assorted Afghan factions from supporting Team Ghani.
As for the Central Asian “stans,” not a single one of them wants any forever wars or hybrid wars down the road.
Fasten your seat belts: It’s gonna be a bumpy ride.
“And nothing is off the table for Washington when it comes to derailing BRI. Crucial silos scattered across the deep state must be already at work replacing a forever war in Afghanistan with hybrid war, Syria-style.”
And this is to parallel to what I wrote here as prediction at the Vineyard and at Martyanov’s blog: more war, low intensity, chaos-producing from the warmongers alliance in HQ’d Washington.
It is kind of war which goes off the radar of media, infrequent caskets home, all Black Ops, covered in National Security Secrecy, paid for from black budgets and the CIA’s drug trade.
The big operations of air power will be even more costly as the flights will have to come and go from Qatar. Contracting corporations will love the more reliance on very expensive missiles rather than the less costly bombs. Green arrows for corporate profits!
If the Taliban are as benign as Pepe writes, the US will have to hurry with its continuing war plans.
The Taliban may find “friends” in the Russian and Chinese military, CSTO and SCO.
The fools in the Afghan government are about to join with their historic “brothers” of South Vietnam.
Load the planes with all you can steal (Like President Nguyen Van Thieu who tried to steal so much gold from Saigon, his plane would not lift off the runway.)
What 20 years of corruption and self-delusion has taught the Hegemon is the one constant of Empires: they run out of stooges, slaves, serfs and stupid people. You can’t kill your way to perpetual power. Democracy is pie-in-the-sky and doesn’t translate on the ground regardless of Google algorithms.
Nation-building? The biggest experiment was India by Britain. India still has half a billion citizens who shit on the walkways because toilets and sewage and waste systems are a century or two late to come to the sub-continent.
Culture matters. The US military was fairly successful in WWII because they fought mostly in Europe. There was a degree of commonality of cultures.
Afghanistan is like a distant galaxy. To sew together the tribal mores and suppress the Islamist fervor to introduce modernity which did exist there in the mid-last century was such a sociological experiment and then to try to sell them equality of genders so democracy would flourish was extremely naive.
Only the arrogance of Empires dares to tame Afghanistan. So far, Afghanistan remains wild and painfully free.
“The biggest experiment was India by Britain. India still has half a billion citizens who shit on the walkways because toilets and sewage and waste systems are a century or two late to come to the sub-continent.”
With all the respect, what’s nation building got to do with toilets. You’re trying to stretch your imagination and exaggerate. And no, they don’t shit on sideways, unless that’s how you prefer the story to go. And not half a billion. Take it easy my man…You’re out of your depth on this one.
Yes, I’ve also noticed this ‘prediction drive’ from our dear Larchmonter445. As he himself say, he’s been doing it on Martyanov’s blog.
The trouble with those kinds of predictions is that they are mostly irrelevant and pointless. We all have eyes, we will see what happens. No need to put one’s stake on the future…it doesn’t exist.
For me, his analysis and historical context is interesting…but I always get put off by prophecies.
Perhaps if he were not puting too much credibility on the line the level of hysteria would diminish…
What a name .. idiocrates.
One should be a little careful of confusing ‘predictions’ with hard analysis. One would be running a risk of having to swallow one’s own words or heavens forbid, having to feed your own foot into your own mouth.
And Martyanov is a good guy, a friend, and a magically good analyst in his field, who appreciates Larchmonter445’s comments and analysis, as he should. As analysts, the work frequently is scenarios. I love seeing the two riffing together and opening up those scenarios.
The real thing is you have nothing to contribute here on the issues, and I’m not saying this in anger, just as a fact. So, evidently, you choose to comment on other posters. That is not a productive contribution and I question the value.
Amarynth, what’s in a name? Are you 5 years old?
Liz, amarynth: you are right in pointing out that we should be constructive in discussions. But, guess what: it cuts both ways.
I am noticing a real downturn in the level of commenting in general. Not sure why that is, but I would start by looking at the Saker himself. I did not appreciate his COVID deniers bashing threads of recent past. However, its his blog and he can say whatever he likes. My opinion still stands: it turned the dials down on the level of commenting, substantially.
The reason why I wrote about Larchmoneter’s ‘prediction drive’ is not that I don’t appreciate his (and other’s) *analysis*, but because I felt it is pointless (my opinion). It was a bit strange for him to say that half of Indians shit in the streets. It was gratuitous and it betrayed a certain level of arrogance and dishonesty. So I chimed in, but I tried not to attack the man himself – you can make your own opinion on that, its all the same to me.
Now look what happened: I was attacked not for what I wrote about but for what I didn’t write about. Are you guys legeneds in your own minds? Do you fancy yourselves members of a mutual adoration society? If your are so goddam constructive why not write an article about how to improve the sanitary situation of Indians – 800 mln people would benefit from your wisdom. Guns into ploughshares and all that jazz.
And to show you I can be equally constructive: I heard stories of some Russian soldiers shitting onto living room floors and into pianos. Some even broke off taps, took them outside and complained that water was not coming out. Does that mean anything? Obviously not, but it did happen according to people whom I usually believe.
But, back to the subject of constructive dialog about and predictions on Afghanistan’s future. I predict the Taliban will get back to real power there. I also predict they will continue to abuse young boys and will treat women badly. This will not be a problem for the Chinese and Russian interests wishing to bring Afghanistan into their sphere of influence and integrate into BRI, SCO and whatever. States and political entities are not moral agents and they never will be (see, another prediction, I am getting good at being constructive).
I also think, predict and guess, all at the same time, that the small contingent of toy US soldiers left in Afghanistan after the retreat will not stay very long, I give them time until the 2nd iteration of whatever the government will be – because it will be enmeshed and entangled sufficiently into structures like BRI etc to allow Russians, Chinese etc to transfer some cool tech to stop that nonsense. ‘Over-the-horizon from Qatar’ PR is clearly BS which is not gonna fool anyone unless the Russians and Chinese will want the wound to fester (for whatever nefarious reason).
For the record: I have nothing against Martyanov, I enjoy reading his blog (but not all the comments) and value his expertise, and even read one of his books. What kind of mental problem do you have which led you to assume I somehow critised or dissed him?
Saker: you clearly know what you are doing, but consider applying your rules fairly and consistently in who can attack who and for what. Otherwise, the credibility of the excellent analysis presented here will (another prediction) suffer.
You consider Larchmonter’s input in this thread as pointless predictions:
Here is what you said: “Yes, I’ve also noticed this ‘prediction drive’ from our dear Larchmonter445. As he himself say, he’s been doing it on Martyanov’s blog.
The trouble with those kinds of predictions is that they are mostly irrelevant and pointless. “
You may have to feed your own foot into own mouth is what I said because it is neither irrelevant, nor pointless. In addition, predictions are not scenarios, as your post illustrates.
And now we have a further litany of complaints.
That’s yet another point important to me.
First, Scenarios include predictions?
‘prediction’ means two or three things and is usually vague in context.
It might mean intuition.
A projection from data.
An informed view on some outcome.
“predictions is that they are mostly irrelevant and pointless.”
No. They can be.
They are mostly false, but I would assume so.
Your questions matter more than your answers. There’s a fact.
Predictions are the very purpose of analysis .
Why they were wrong matters .
Why they changed matters .
If the comments have been well grounded, doing a little ‘spit balling’ is useful .
@ Idocrates
“Now look what happened: I was attacked not for what I wrote about but for what I didn’t write about”
“Saker: you clearly know what you are doing, but consider applying your rules fairly and consistently in who can attack who and for what. Otherwise, the credibility of the excellent analysis presented here will (another prediction) suffer.”
No one is attacking you, man. We are all geopolitics enthusiasts here… This site is like an oasis for geopolitics enthusiasts. We aren’t trying to attack anyone – we are trying to defend our oasis from trolls and undisciplined commenters. If we want to keep the oasis we must do this. When a mod sees a person named “idiocrates” making comments that include petulant, provocative, quasi-disruptive content, it doesn’t make them a “5 year old” to take note of this, it makes them a good mod.
In your above comment, the only part of it pertinent to the article and discussion thereof is when you said:
“But, back to the subject of constructive dialog about and predictions on Afghanistan’s future. I predict the Taliban will get back to real power there. I also predict they will continue to abuse young boys and will treat women badly. This will not be a problem for the Chinese and Russian interests wishing to bring Afghanistan into their sphere of influence and integrate into BRI, SCO and whatever. States and political entities are not moral agents and they never will be (see, another prediction, I am getting good at being constructive).
I also think, predict and guess, all at the same time, that the small contingent of toy US soldiers left in Afghanistan after the retreat will not stay very long, I give them time until the 2nd iteration of whatever the government will be – because it will be enmeshed and entangled sufficiently into structures like BRI etc to allow Russians, Chinese etc to transfer some cool tech to stop that nonsense. ‘Over-the-horizon from Qatar’ PR is clearly BS which is not gonna fool anyone unless the Russians and Chinese will want the wound to fester (for whatever nefarious reason).”
Two paragraphs. The rest of it is a meta-discussion about the discussion itself and is not valuable to the thousands of future readers who will now see it. If this isn’t trolling, it still subtracts from the quality-density of the site. Even my reply is a continuation of this meta-discussion so I will keep it brief.
Saker was at least openminded enough to have an open thread on COVID. He made an exception to his rules in order to accommodate this discussion and what happened? They made him regret it (I surmise). They couldn’t keep their pants on, they descended into a vitriolic virtual shouting match and it was altogether an exercise in futility. Why?
Was it because Saker and the regulars at this site couldn’t control themselves in a rational conversation? No. It was that the deluge of commenters couldn’t control themselves. I don’t think the limiting factor keeping the discussions here from being better is the Saker or the regulars; I think its the undisciplined newcomers who don’t know how to conduct themselves with class, grace, and finesse in an intelligent conversation. Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s how it looks from where I’m sitting, and I have been reading this site for going on 8 years.
Anyway, I meant you no disrespect. I was just trying to appeal to you and Anonymous, and other readers/commenters, to please try to keep from getting in the way of the expert’s conversations, keep from pulling the conversation into the weeds, and most importantly to just be respectful and mature in general. Again, we are all geopolitics enthusiasts here.
Cheers
Liz
My apologies Liz. I study social media, trolling and meta discussion about the discussion. I saw the dialog, off topic, and pounced upon it.
I will avoid doing so in future. Your comment applies to all of us.
“What’s in a name?”
That is a vast subject in itself. Words have power.
https://www.myjewishlearning.com/article/the-power-of-a-name-the-power-of-naming/
Scenarios yes. Within this scenario you would expect X. The response by Y is Y1. Q responds with Q1. Or X does X2.
You opine on a literial field of wrongness where only a single path is followed in the end. Always using incomplete information.
It’s its own dark art with its own magicians.
I agree with that. But I made having a prediction a requirement for my work.
It always sounds so arrogant as though I have a very high opinion of myself.
It’s all provisional.
Planning takes place in continuum we don’t control.
The point was that science is required to have predictive powers.
Otherwise it isn’t science.
This applies to political, social and cognitive science.
It’s actually quite fun. If analysis can be ‘fun’. Interesting is the right word.
Hmmm. I am doing this wrong. I was agreeing with:
“One should be a little careful of confusing ‘predictions’ with hard analysis. One would be running a risk of having to swallow one’s own words or heavens forbid, having to feed your own foot into your own mouth. ”
Apologies.
I will also make a ‘prediction’ next year more residents of San Francisco and of Los Angeles will shit on the sidewalk than this year.
Ok. 400 millions then.
In China, zero.
O common c the logic not half a billion he means but the Indian diaspora he is talking about not the exact figures. The most worst conditions in every arena is here. I live here I know what’s the situation. Here is the biggest Anglo zionist slavery system u know why because of the worst ideologies or in simple English the worst thinking of most here. The most loyalest to the unseen empire.
One of Modi’s promises was toilets. He campaigned on the issue.
Sadly, India has a culture that moves slowly on such issues.
They can build sophisticated missiles and do Math with the best on the planet, but transforming from massive poverty seems to elude them.
Even their trains are a symbol of being a century behind the times. They were offered Chinese high speed rail, but Modi scotched the deal.
Infrastructure matters. Toilets, sanitation systems, transportation . . .
It is very melancholy to observe India gleefully join the QUAD while it refuses to join the future in BRI.
What does it gain from the QUAD? Assembling iPhones. Some more H1B visas to continue the brain drain to the US.
Well, maybe after Modi the nation will select someone with a view to the future.
That’s what world ZIONISM is all about. That’s the reason the empire is most satisfied with India plus many other reasons
and passed on the golden opportunity of being a member of RCEP, I am so sorry for the 13B Indians being led down by the Zionist controlled puppets disguised as Indian leadership
@ (naturally, Anonymous–used by the dopiest)
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-world-toilet-day-2020-and-the-state-of-sanitation-in-india-7057610/
Read it and STFU!
You know little about much.
40% have good sanitation. .40 x 1.3 billion equals what, Mr. Know Little? In the old math it is 500,000,000. That number is half a billion.
Do an internet search on India and toilets and see the vast open source information on the topic.
Modi has flushed the decade away instead of jump-starting the potential of his nation. He internalized the colonial mind set of the British.
@ Larch
Nice use of the word “flushed” in that context ;-)
I will say, as a person who Larch has gotten into before once or twice for posting comments on here that were on the edge of the topic being discussed…
I have been reading this blog for years, since the overthrow of Ukraine began. I have learned a ton from the Saker and from the regular excellent commenters, like Larchmonter, Amaryth, Austlander, Serbian girl, etc.
This site upholds a high quality of discourse unavailable on other sites, and Larch is acting as a gatekeeper in an effort to sustain this consistently high quality level. I am grateful to the mods and regulars for this.
Many people, like Anonymous and Idiocrates will come and try to antagonize or shift the conversation to their focus at the expense of the overall discussion… this is doing the blog a disservice, IMHO.
Guys, in geopolitics, especially in moments like this in Afghanistan where we have a very significant, sudden recent development that is almost certain to re-write the rules of the game in the region (and maybe beyond), it is perfectly reasonable to make *educated guesses* as to how things might develop. This kind of brainstorming is very useful, even though it is conjecture. They key is “educated” guesses.
For regular folks (non-geopolitical experts) like us the value of getting to witness a brainstorming season on such important topics by such educated people is nothing short of a privilege. Try finding that elsewhere. Don’t come around here and disrespect people who are having a conversation above your head, while you are too dense to shut you mouth and open your mind and learn something.
I personally would love to see more of this insightful brainstorming around here, not less.
But it will take their audience learning and growing over time and most of all maturity and respect to let them get into it.
————
Now, my (modest) contribution to the brainstorming session:
– what is to become of the control of the poppy production, who will emerge as the heroin boss and inherit a huge black budget and soft power to go with it?
– what is to become of the 5th fleet HQ if USA is chased out of the ME? Move it do Diego Garcia?
– India seems to be playing both sides: it is part of quad, but also allies with Russia… it has been a while since I read of the north-south corridor involving India, Iran, some stans (I forget which ones), and Russia. It would appear India is either planning on not picking a side and thus entering into a period of very complicated geopolitics, or it plans to pick a side and is waiting for the last moment to make its decision, getting what it can from both sides in the meantime. How will this develop in the context of Eurasian integration?
– what hand will Iran play in Afghanistan and are their interests aligned with Russia? I read on messyan’s blog that he predicts that Russia and Biden agreed to allow Syria be the new regional hegemon and not Iran… maybe Iran doesn’t like this and has some alternate plans for Afghanistan? They would certainly benefit from a $100,000,000 black budget. Or will they let Russia/China/India/Pakistan secure that for themselves? Or will the CTSO/SCO eliminate drug production a d simply turn off the blood money spigot?
Cheers
Liz
@Liz
Spot on.
More importantly, Questions!
An insightful question is often more important that a plausible answer.
It is the catalyst of doubt and the challenge to provide some certitude.
A question at the heart of the matter can be answered a score of ways and yet go “unanswered”.
I’ll take a stab at the US 5th Fleet in the ME question.
If CENTCOM actually takes all its boots on the ground out of the ME, the fleet will stay. Bahrain and UAE are intrinsically attached to the US. Even a powerful, free-wheeling Iran won’t be able to push the US all the way to the middle of the Indian Ocean, Diego Garcia, to haunch down there. It’s a base of logistics, but the US flag will remain in the Me, in the Gulf. The ME will be a shared region–Iran, US, Israel, Russia, Turkey, Egypt, in varying degrees. Power and influence will come from economics, military and dependable partnerships.
Great stuff, Liz.
No need for the Iranians to push the US fleet out of middle East the zios hv already lost and fighting a lost war
Hi Liz
Some excellent observations and questions too.
Without any shadow of doubt this site remains the premier geopolitical think-tank forum on the globe…and by a huge margin!
Regards
Col
Taliban was the only force able to organise all the fighting tribe fractions in Afghanistan after Sovjet left, and they have shown they are the only force to do it again.
We must remember they were Afghanistan’s rightful government before US invasion, and If and when they take back this right again, I expect they will erase all opium fields as they did during 1999 and 2000.
I cant see why Iran, Russia, China should have anything against that. Turkey will off course fill a truckload with tears but that is Turkey’s destiny.
> We must remember they were Afghanistan’s rightful government before US invasion…
The last legit govt was the PDPA and Najibullah. They has asked the Soviets to help build the nation, when USA saw a hidden hand that did not exist. Then USA played cash strapped Pakistan to incite violence, then finished of Zia Ul Haq after the taliban was formed. 80% of the world did not recognize Taliban, so they were not the rightful govt.
“read on messyan’s blog that he predicts that Russia and Biden agreed to allow Syria be the new regional hegemon and not Iran…”
Syria has a population of roughly 17 million, and a GDP of around 30 billion dollars.
Iran’s population is 84 million, and its GDP is around 700 billion dollars.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/294233/iran-gross-domestic-product-gdp/
From 2016 to 2020, the Iranian economy expanded by as much as 7 Syrias.
And today, Syria and Bashar Assad are completely dependent on Iran for their continued existence. Russian influence in Syria is negligible compared to Iran’s. The IRGC has military bases all over Syria. They control practically every strategic position under Syrian rule.
The idea that Syria could become the regional hegemon, in the foreseeable future, is preposterous. Syria couldn’t even save itself from ISIS. It still can’t. The only reason Bashar Assad still rules over the country called Syria, is that he is a loyal friend and ally of Iran. Even Russia’s presence in Syria was orchestrated by the IRGC.
“They would certainly benefit from a $100,000,000 black budget.”
Do you mean to say that Iran would benefit from a hundred million dollars? First of all, if that is your estimate of Afghan drug (Poppy and Cannabis) production income, then you are off by an order of magnitude. And a hundred million dollars is nothing to Iran.
An acquaintance of mine was the police chief at a border town in Sistan, many years ago. His career was almost ended one night when he stopped the wrong truck and confiscated many tons of narcotics, which the truck was transporting from Afghanistan. The truck belonged to the IRGC, and the border police are made aware of which trucks they are not allowed to stop and search. My acquaintance made a mistake. He spent some time in a jail cell, and almost lost his job, but for the fact that the IRGC people realized that he was just an idiot, and he’d made a mistake.
The IRGC transits the narcotics from Afghanistan through Iran, to Turkey, from where they go to Europe and the US. This has been the pattern since as far back as I can remember. The US invasion of Afghanistan did not disrupt this flow at all. Narcotics are extremely easy to obtain in Iran, they are very cheap, and drug laws in Iran are very lax; getting caught with marijuana or opium will almost never result in any prison time, even up to half a kilo. Iran has been called the Amsterdam of the Middle East.
In addition to total domination over the Iranian transit route for Afghan drugs to the West, which is the main route, the IRGC also produces cocaine in Venezuela, under the auspices of their benefactor, the Venezuelan government. The IRGC then smuggles the cocaine to the US and Europe.
Sanctions against Iran have made Iranians very skilled in smuggling and money laundering operations. The IRGC is not Pablo Escobar, that the US can just up and murder and rob. The IRGC has many Pablo Escobar-types, and many soldiers and guns and ships and airplanes and business fronts all across the world.
The Taliban conquered Afghanistan these past few weeks, under direction and supervision from the IRGC.
The future of Afghanistan will be what the IRGC and the Taliban decide. The border crossings which were captured by the Taliban, and had been closed for two days, are now all open again, and Iranian products are entering Afghanistan truck after truck, just like before, with the only difference that the Taliban now runs things on the Afghan side.
In the next few years, Iran is projected to add a few more Syrias to its GDP, thanks in part to Syria and Afghanistan and Iraq, where Iranian products dominate the shelves. Thanks to US sanctions, Iranian currency has devaluated, which has been very good for exports.
@ Anonymous
Here is a link to the article I mentioned. It is actually the second part of a two part series about the Putin/Biden summit. Here are the links to both articles:
https://www.voltairenet.org/article213394.html – part 1
https://www.voltairenet.org/article213446.html – part 2 <— this one has the citation I mentioned
It struck me as slightly odd myself, but again TM certainly knows more than me on the subject. If I understand correctly, he is living in Damascus reporting on the Syrian war from Syria. He describes the Syrian war as something of the capstone of ww3, given that there are more states involved in that war than there were in ww2. Interesting perspective. I was just trying to help the conversation on this site develop…
I made several typos in my comment, and the $100,000,000 was one of them. I left out 3 zeros :-) Someone else commented that the opium profits amounted to $100 billion and the war cost America $50 billion per year n Afghanistan. I don't know the accuracy of any of these numbers fwiw.
Regarding Syria's prospective hegemon status – again, this struck me as odd for the same reasons you mention. However, we must note that Israel has even fewer citizens but one hell of an airforce… If Syria were to be a loaded up with the latest Russian weapons, and also given its excellent geographical location, it may not be so far fetched after all.
There have been several clues that Iran and Russia have somewhat divergent interests in post-war Syria, and the ME region more generally. Russia took its time to deliver the S-300 systems Iran had already bought, they said they won't let Iran get a nuclear weapon, they haven't stopped Israel form hitting Iran in Syria numbers times.. So Idk. I suppose it is plausible what Messyan writes. Read it for yourself and see what you think, I'd be interested in your thoughts.
Cheers
Liz
“Regarding Syria’s prospective hegemon status – again, this struck me as odd for the same reasons you mention. However, we must note that Israel has even fewer citizens but one hell of an airforce… If Syria were to be a loaded up with the latest Russian weapons, and also given its excellent geographical location, it may not be so far fetched after all.”
There is a short answer, and a long answer.
The short answer is:
Saudi Arabia is as loaded up with the latest weapons as can be, and yet Yemen, a tiny gnat compared to the Saudi mammoth, is standing in Saudi Arabia’s way to regional hegemony. Not only that, the Yemenis have utterly humiliated Saudi Arabia, and they have demonstrated that Iranian arms are more effective than the weapons that the Saudis buy. Note that the Saudis (and their Emirati partners) don’t just buy weapons from the US.
https://www.trtworld.com/middle-east/russia-is-selling-more-weapons-to-saudi-arabia-and-the-uae-24431/amp
So, there is a lot more to attaining regional hegemony, than just having the best American or Russian weapons. But don’t tell the Saudis that! Apparently, they think that by moving over to Russian weapons systems, they can change the reality on the ground in Yemen.
But the long answer is: after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the Iranians found themselves loaded up with the absolute best weapons that the world had to offer, which the ousted Shah had bought and stockpiled for years, including the legendary F-14 Tomcat, which the US only gave to Iran and no other country. But when Saddam Hussein attacked Iran, all the arms purveyors suddenly refused to sell weapons to Iran. The Iranians found themselves in a tough spot.
For one, the Iranians realized that the whole world was in cahoots; everyone was selling arms to Iraq, while nobody was willing to sell Iran so much as sticks and stones. The US even sold Iraq chemical weapons through Germany. Many in Iran still suffer from the effects of those chemical weapons, and yet the world and the UN continues to ignore the whole episode.
The IRGC made the realization that a country that depends on others for its defense and arms, can never be a real power. So, they got to work producing their own weapons. Weapons that are leading the Yemenis to victory today, and weapons that were used to humiliate the Israelis back in May.
For a country to become a real independent power, it is of vital importance that it make its own weapons, and that those weapons be good enough to win wars.
You mention Israel as a contender for regional hegemony; another mammoth whose path is blocked by an ant. Incidentally, another ant armed with Iranian weapons.
After the recent scuffle with the Palestinians, the first thing the Jews did was to ask the US for help replenishing their Iron Dome. This is a major hint.
Israel, like Saudi Arabia, is not an independent power, as it relies on the US, and others, to provide it with not just arms, but various kinds of support. Israel is a colonial outpost that wouldn’t survive until the end of the week if the US, and others, stopped supporting it. Same goes for KSA and UAE.
The real contenders for hegemony in the Middle East are Iran and the US. And the US has just been knocked out in Afghanistan. They will be removed from Iraq next. Watch closely, every Iranian missile that hits a US base, every bomb that blows up a US logistical convoy, is one step towards evicting the US from Iraq. There is only so much they can take, as they’ve shown in Afghanistan. And the Hashd al-Shaabi are truly formidable, a second Hezbollah, through and through, and they are committed to kicking the US out of their land, just like the Taliban.
TM is allowed to fantasize about Syria becoming the regional hegemon, but in order to become the regional hegemon in these parts, one has to defeat Israel and Saudi Arabia. If the US and Russia provide Syria with weapons, will Syria be allowed to take on Israel? As you have noted about Iran, Russia also delayed S-300 delivery to Syria for a very long time, while Israel was striking that country on a regular basis.
Iran was the US-backed regional hegemon up to 1979. As soon as it went against Israel, nobody would sell it weapons anymore, including the Russians. How would Syria be any different?
And regional hegemony is more than just military power. A regional hegemon must be an economic power as well. It must be a leader in science and technology. It must be able to feed itself, so to speak, and produce a surplus to dominate the markets of its neighbors. A regional hegemon must also have cultural dominance.
Syrians would starve without Iranian food right now. They have no economy. No culture. No science and technology. No arms production.
Becoming a regional power takes decades of planning and strategizing, and executing the plans successfully. Just giving a country in Syria’s position lots of weapons will not turn it into a regional power overnight. Contending with the great powers of the world today is no joke.
Making predictions is tricky business. But as far as Syria becoming the regional hegemon is concerned, I would say that it is just wishful thinking, with no basis in reality.
There is one other ingredient to making a regional hegemon like Iran, a secret ingredient. Military, economic, science and technology, and cultural power are the ingredients that everyone knows. The secret ingredient is spiritual knowledge, which the secular world can’t even begin to fathom.
The starving Yemenis are beating the Saudis because they have spiritual knowledge. The same goes for the Taliban. And Hezbollah. And Iran, which is the source of this spiritual knowledge in the region.
All of these David vs Goliath battles, Hamas vs Israel, Houthis vs KSA, Taliban vs NATO, Iran vs USA, are being won by the Davids, because their spiritual knowledge and power gives them such an edge and advantage over the Goliaths, that it makes the fights unfair to the Goliaths. In all seriousness, the US has to fight an Iran handicapped by sanctions, just like the Saudis have to fight a Yemen under siege, because without the handicap, the Yemenis would eat Saudi Arabia alive, and Iran would be dancing circles around the US, which they already are, even under sanctions.
As long as the Iranian spiritual center stands, there is no way in hell that American or Russian or even Alien Space Weapons can change anything on the ground. With every passing year, the Iranian side becomes more powerful. Watch the next Gaza-Israel conflict closely, which is currently brewing under the lid; the Zionists are about to get a taste of true horror.
TM and the Syrians should focus on developing spiritual knowledge, and not waste time indulging in Zionist-fuelled fantasies of regional hegemony, when they can’t even feed themselves.
I would advise everyone in the world to pursue spiritual knowledge, side by side with material pursuits, lest they miss the boat.
All aboard!
“An acquaintance of mine was the police chief at a border town in Sistan, many years ago. His career was almost ended one night when he stopped the wrong truck ….
The IRGC transits the narcotics from Afghanistan through Iran, to Turkey, from where they go to Europe and the US. This has been the pattern since as far back as I can remember. ……
In addition to total domination over the Iranian transit route for Afghan drugs to the West, which is the main route, the IRGC also produces cocaine ….”
Anonymous on July 11, 2021 · at 8:31 am EST/EDT
That was all very informative thanks.
Given the mess in western drug policy and health care I really don’t think that the Taliban should shut this down.
What involves the greater harm if we are talking little people here?
I doubt that they will shut it down.
Hezbollah officially denounces drugs, but Lebanon is a huge producer of Cannabis resin.
Iran also officially denounces drugs, but go to any park in Tehran in the evening and you will definitely smell weed smoke. Not to mention the official statistics for opium use.
“Based on the World Health Organization (WHO), Iran has the highest rate of opium abusers in the world, and opium use in Iran is three times the global average. The statistics show that there are about 2 million people use illicit drugs at a daily basis in Iran, which is about 2.7% of the population”
The real figure is much higher. I would say that perhaps up to 50% of urban youth smoke cannabis in Iran. And the number of opium users is probably double the official figure.
There is no real “war on drugs” in Iran. So, there is no problem with people using traditional drugs. Both Cannabis and the Opium Poppy are native to Iran, and Iranians have been using them for millenia. There is evidence of Cannabis use by Iranian Scythians dating back to almost 3000 years. (Heroin and meth are a different story, and selling either is punishable by death.)
With Cannabis being legalized in so many places in the West, what possible reason could the Taliban have to stop its production? Afghan strains of Cannabis are part of the backbone of modern high-THC strains in the West, like the famous OG Kush.
https://psychedelictimes.com/irans-top-religious-leader-approves-therapeutic-use-psychedelics/ — “Iranian Religious Authority Considers Psychedelic Medicines Halāl”
https://stopthedrugwar.org/chronicle/2017/nov/10/rohani_fatwa_okays_psychedelic_therapy — “You Won’t Believe Which Middle East Theocrat Has Okayed Psychedelics Treatment”
https://www.alternet.org/2017/11/believe-middle-east-theocracy-enlightened-entheogens-psychedelics-iran/ —
“You Won’t Believe Which Middle East Theocracy Takes an Enlightened Line on Entheogens and Psychedelics!”
The conception which the Western media has created of Iran as a repressive backwater run by a “theocratic” regime is entirely false. Just like the narrative that they have been feeding people about the Taliban has been totally false.
The essence of the old Islamic civilization was a thousand and one nights, beautiful architecture, medieval alchemists and scientists, mystery and intrigue, palaces and gardens, magic carpets and genies, belly dancers, Sufis and whirling dervishes and all manner of mystics and ascetics and magicians and storytellers and poets and wanderers, etc.
That is what Iran is trying to recreate. Not the Saudi Salafism that Western people have come to associate with Islam, ie. headchopping, oppressed women kept as slaves and raped over and over again, cutting off people’s hands and feet for petty crimes, religious fanaticism and intolerance, hate for science and reason, etc.
The Saudi Salafi-Wahabi nonsense does not reflect genuine Islamic ideals. That school is a creation of the Zionists, to lead the Sunnis astray, just like the Bahaii nonsense, which is the Shia version of Salafism, and was meant to lead the Shia astray. The Bahaiis’ most sacred sites, for example, are in Israel, which is where their founder Bahaullah is buried.
If the Bahaiis’ version of Shiism had taken over Iran, Iranians would be praying towards Israel 3 times a day in mandatory communal prayer sessions, while the Zionist overlords ran the affairs of Iran, and the entire Middle East region.
…For regular folks (non-geopolitical experts) like us the value of getting to witness a brainstorming season on such important topics by such educated people is nothing short of a privilege.
thanks Liz you spoke for me and i think many others
He isn’t and his point was that “nation building” efforts by the british failed as is always the case as evidenced by the fact that half a billion Indian’s still crap in the woods (not sidewalks) – which they do. Approx. five years ago I read this number was actually 600,000 per Indian government statistics. A national campaign to introduce outhouses and actual plumbing was introduced but was met with resistance from large segments of the outdoor crapping public. Thus it is still a huge problem for that nation. Normally I recall your comments are on point but this one is naive at best.
@NATzO Blues: “half a billion Indian’s still crap in the woods (not sidewalks)”.
Thanks for pointing out the difference. Bears crap in the woods because that is natural and ecologically sound. My guru, Prof.Robert Harkness, would hand his students a spade on field trips and explain its use when they needed to take a walk in the woods. Same in the desert; Field Marshal Viscount Montgomery of Alamein had a secret weapon against Rommel. Monty ordered his soldiers to be armed with a spade, crapping in the sand for. Poor Rommel’s soldiers didn’t have any spades; he wrote home to his wife about his personal woes with dysentry.
Yanks crap on the sidewalk because they lose their homes and there are no public toilets in the concrete jungle.
Both to you (anonymous) and idiocrates: have you ever been to India? Before you attack someone’s fairly astute observation, try to learn the subject matter. Visit India and then go to China – perhaps you’d be able to spot the difference. Both countries have had about the same time to develop (1947/1949). See if you can figure out which one is vastly ahead of the other.
“And nothing is off the table for Washington when it comes to derailing BRI. Crucial silos scattered across the deep state must be already at work replacing a forever war in Afghanistan with hybrid war, Syria-style.”
of course…anyone remember the Sigthing of Black Hawks that transported ISIS commanders away during the reconquering of Deialzor? I think there are far more Transporting happend during that time and many of them are ended up in Afghanistan.
Larchmonter445 BullsEye !
It sounds like the U.S. has managed to heal some of Afghanistan’s ethnic divisions by uniting everyone against the occupation. The current Taliban sounds a bit like Iran– Islamic fundamentalists with nuanced and sophisticated strategies and diplomacy. Perhaps Afghanistan will become something like a cross between Iran and Pakistan.
Erdogan…Syria…Azerbaijan.. now Afghanistan???
https://syrianews.cc/erdogan-is-putin-and-russia-enemy/
https://syrianews.cc/turkey-and-russia-central-asia-after-afghanistan/?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true
JJ
Erdogan has to pay and feed 50,000 head choppers, keep his own proxies, SNA fed and paid, keep his military in harms way and deal with the Russia military on the ground and in the air he no longer can fly through. That’s Syria.
Azerbaijan is a Putin settled frozen zone. Russian forces control the vital corridor. Erdogan gained prestige but nothing else. Armenia was the big loser. Russia has excellent relations with Azerbaijan and they know the score. Erdogan isn’t their Big Daddy. Putin gave them what they wanted as spoils for the war Armenia launched.
Afghanistan? Erdogan wants the airport so he can fly in thousands of ISIS and dump them into the war zone. He wants them dead so he doesn’t have to pay and feed them. Like he did in Libya with thousands from Idlib.
Look a little deeper past the window frame. Inside, Erdogan is way overextended. He travels easily on the historic Turkic roadways. But he isn’t building an Ottoman Empire. He has no economy and the places he enters are hellholes and poor.
Ta for your perspective L.
Armenia started to lose when UK agent Pashinyan came to power in 2018 and with the recent election that keeps him in power it will continue to disintegrate. With him Armenia turned away from Russia and thought they had more powerful friends in the West but when Azerbaijan attacked those friends disappeared. It’s hard to watch the disintegration of my ancestors homeland that has tied itself to the disintegrating West. I was hopeful when Armenia was tied to Russia and turned to the SCO but with
Pashinyan I see little hope for the future of Armenia.
How is it possible for Pashinyan to have been reelected when he lost Nagorno-Karabakh by his treason? The elections must have been as fraudulent as the ones in the US and France and elsewhere in the West.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the sheeple.
BS! Turkey are purchasing s400’s to ward off Russian threats and Russia’s selling them. lol
@WTFUD-BS-LOL
Check out this article from Feb 2020. https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/russia-bombs-turkish-troops-in-syria/
Then tell me the S-400s are to ward off Russian threats.
Why weren’t they used, bright boy?
You think Russia sells equipment that can be used against its own forces?
Erdogan had to borrow the money for the purchase and then make payments to Russia on the loan.
Russia sold them to split NATO, to weaken the Israel hegemony in the ME and East Med.
It’s all over your little head. The facts, the reality. That’s what matters. Not an opinion pulled from your arse.
There always must be someone to bad mouth the Russians. Part of the ‘hybrid war’. One may notice the re-emergence of the ‘Potemkin villages’, ‘Potemkiniad’ tropes.
The future of warfare is the thermal warfare
Listen, MOD: Insult deleted, if Russia sold the s400’s to Saudi for example, their long term future in the region would fall to zero. Selling to Turkey might be seen as a provocation to US/ZATO but on the other hand will piss off Syria & Iran & Allies. Therefore, Turkey must be seen by Russia as a long term ally.
Your attachments indicate Russia is being played by Turkey and infers MOD Shoigu is sleepwalking. I think NOT!
Russia/China have a lot to offer Turkey; What’s ZATO got to offer?
Let’s not make out Turkey is playing a grandmaster chess game here.
Thank you for this information! The propaganda right now is huge!
The Taliban now has only the name in common with Mullah Omar’s crew from the nineties. Essentially it is a resistance faction that has a lot more skill at diplomacy and negotiation. US can pull out or go out the hard way. Washington is delusional. Team Biden can not admit that Trump was right when he wanted to pull out . Gen. Milley is only good at projecting a nice image, he is utterly incompetent in military matters. The Taliban when they come to power will try and develop the country with Russian and Chinese help.
You misunderstand. Afghan’s are proud people and self sufficient. They dont’ crave the latest and greatest gizmos. They’ll come around it in their own time, like it or not. And no, they’ve been conquered before and they know what it’s like. So, they have memories of loss too. Nobody can guess what the future holds for that country.
Missing from this analysis is that when the Taliban came to power, they were engaged in similar diplomacy focusing on economic ties. Taliban representatives had come to Texas in 1997 to meet with Unocal about a potential oil/pipeline deal. The newly appointed Bush the Younger administration was also carrying out talks with the Taliban pre-9/11. (Eg see https://www.counterpunch.org/2002/01/10/bush-enron-unocal-and-the-taliban/)
The Taliban when in power were intent on building Afghanistan economically; tackling social issues like the extreme corruption and drug trade and sex trafficking albeit under strict Islamic interpretations – not dissimilar to Saudi Arabia at the time – and fiercely guarding Afghan sovereignty.
Post 9-11 and pre-invasion, the Taliban had tried to negotiate with the Americans regarding the handover/expulsion of Bin Laden from Afghan but only if the Americans would submit evidence of crimes. By that time of course the PNAC wing led by Dick Cheney were firmly in charge and regime change plans across the Middle East became operationalized.
And so went TAPI that would have made Afghanistan a prosperous, safe and stable place. No prizes for guessing who put a kaibosh on it.
Perspective is 20/20 , hindsight blinded from looking through the rear view mirror (not realizing that is what we r doing)
I have not read any news out of Afghanistan that is even half reliable besides Pepe ( he has a track record).
Having said this, there is still one blaringly obvious imbalance, in reporting on Afghanistan- not one actual report of any interview, in any detailed fashion have I read representing the Taliban’s side…
If it (interview) actually exists can anyone actually present an article for the Saker website to publish (since we r in a transition stage) if anyone runs across said current interview of Taliban represenatatives I think everyone would suddenly b shocked that the Taliban may b smarter then us (including myself/ possibly more ethical/possibly more moral/possibly better role models for the West to follow- problem is it is impossible for me to learn what these ppl think -say about themselves when I can not read their perspective about Anything- it is as if we in the West/ US forget they r humans- possible better then us IF, IF we were allowed contact w them, on their terms, w out someone constantly shooting misses at them).
David vs Goliath- I do not know – but if David got the kind of press coverage the Taliban n Afghanistan has received doubt that story would have made it into scripture.
Someone plz define “Islamic fervor” , “Islamic Fundamentalism” –not based out of a dictionary– no I mean actual examples from real ppl who are, in this case Taliban, or an actual Iranian who is viewed this way, have them explain why they behave why they do, they actually have a brain and functional organs- this might shock us in the West or any other place.
I am sure I might disagree / agree w many – but that is out of logic/ wisdom (not bc I’m a superior human specimen from US of A — I reserve the right 4 them 2 b superior to me if they simply R- no judgmts)?
I just want 2 hear someone who is intelligent talk- I do not care where they r from.
But if they happen 2 b from Afghanistan or Iran all the better be, I figrured I might b long dead and gone from planet earth before I get said “bucket wish” (hypothetical)
Wishing Peace 2 all
(First draft-gotta go-sorry 4 any editorial errors)
Here is an older article on the Saker Blog.
/the-truth-about-islamic-fundementalism/
But, Sheikh Imran Hosein is probably the best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3d4F-sAjEw
It looks like the Taliban are speaking to a dozen people and flying here and there. I hope the Taliban are well advanced in covering their communication foot prints, and good at avoiding being traced and tracked. I hope the Iranians do not spill to much beans to the Taliban.. While the U.S pull their army I know at the same time their hit squads and assassins are on deployment notice. Today’s warfare requires a little bit of information and a antenna in the right location to gather enough Intel to wipe out a movement leadership.. The ones at the bottom foot soilders rather can be disorientated and made to turn on their own. Kind of stupid to have a physical army there when all they are not artifical robots.. Cameras for eyes, antenna for ears, hands to shoot.. One of these none artifical robots die brings a shit storm of truth to the u.s propaganda machine. Remove the flesh troops, deploy AI and other means of hitting hard without phsyically being there.
Maybe we should look on Afganistan situation from different angle.
Not as victory of Talibans, but as consequence of western global retreat due to multiple internal problems. Probably, many yet unknown to rest of us.
Being on frontline of events, Talibans became “collateral profiteers”. So are everybody else in Afganistan, except handfull of those who made living by “sharing” war/drug money with Americans.
I do not suggest that Americans went penniless, just say they have more important things to do with their dwindling resources.
Let’s do a rough reality check. Kilo of heroin costs up to $120000. Afganistan produced up to 900 tons officialy. That is roughly $100 billion yearly for those who organize whole thing. 20 years of that and you come to amount of 2 trillion. Only from heroin.
Which is in range of “cost” that US taxpayers supposedly paid.
Even better. If you can funnel heroin from Afganistan to other markets, say, EU and Russia, then THEIR addicts pay the price of your war! Briliantly?
There must be really serious reason to abandon such lucrative enterprise.
Talibans putting drug industry to a halt will be the biggest and costliest blow to the enemy.
When money dries up, do not expect much from remnants of US occupation. Those 300000 strong Afgan army will dissolve in no time, and join Talibans or emigrants.
Contractors could put up some fight, but I do not see why they should do any better then against Houthies in Yemen.
NOTE: do not confuse official statement of Afganistan drug production worth couple of billions. That’s the amount of money Afgan drug producers share with their foreign enablers. The same who also reaps huge percent from street price of heroin.
A little from China on the Taliban and Afghanistan.
China a ‘welcome friend’ for reconstruction in Afghanistan: Taliban spokesman
Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen says the group welcomes Chinese investments in reconstruction and would guarantee the safety of investors and workers
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has emboldened the Taliban and there are growing concerns about the Kabul government’s ability to stay in power
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3140399/china-welcome-friend-reconstruction-afghanistan-taliban
How very amazing. Our concept of the Taliban was always as wild spittling and yelling horseriders in flapping white robes swinging guns around. And here we see educated men talking educated geopolitics. Yes, it is early days and there is a mess of boulders on this road, but it feels a little optimistic.
My view at this point of the Great Game is that with the advent of Russia and China (and others) taking their rightful place in the world, something will give, and countries that were deprived of any development opportunity as a hegemonic principle, will be doing more amazing things, as that boulder gets rolled out of their road. It will remain a bumpy ride.
Here is another piece of the puzzle.
Zakharova:
Lavrov will take part in an SCO – Afghanistan Foreign Ministers meeting in light of the withdrawal of NATO forces from this country.
We may just be seeing the actual building of the multi-polar world here.
Good insight, amarynth. If the changes coming to Afghanistan are not the construction of the multi-polar world, what will be?
It is the heart of Eurasian troubles. Central Asia, South Asia, Belts and Roads, Economic Corridors, Islamist governments, terrorists of all degrees of fanaticism, mineral resources, opium trade, grinding poverty and the last throes of the Hegemon (Gulliver and the Lilliputians redux).
Afghanistan looks like rocks, sand and gravel, but it may be the crystal ball in which we see the future.
If Russia can secure a partnership with the Taliban, they will have accomplished what the USSR couldn’t achieve three decades ago; secure a path to the Indian Ocean.
> secure a path to the Indian Ocean…
How? AF is a landlocked country. To get to Indian Ocean they have to cross Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal. Take your pick.
@Swordfish
That route is through Pakistan. CPEC goes to the port Gwadar which was developed bigger and better by the Chinese.
Afghanistan is like Mongolia, big but landlocked.
And yet another piece to these moves. Watch this space. Check it out, it is not only Lavrov in a SCO – Afghanistan meeting, it is also the FM of China. And to boot, while Lavrov takes on the SCO initiative in Afghanistan, Wang Yi will visit Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan between July 12 and 16 on the invitation of foreign ministers of the three countries.
And he will meet his buddy Sergei Lavrov at the meeting of foreign ministers of the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group,
Chinese FM to visit Central Asia on SCO mission for Afghan peace
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202107/1228280.shtml
“I think it’s time we stop, children, what’s that sound,
Everybody look what’s going down.”
A little Belt and Road building? Perhaps on steriods! This all is happening next week, so something is moving like greased lightening!
What’s going down?
Nature and Geopolitics abhor a vacuum.
When there’s no more war as the major tool in your toolkit, nothing to fear.
We may have reached the point past America unable to win a war. We may be at the stage when America can no longer wage a war.
“We may be at the stage when America can no longer wage a war.”
Judging by their recent moves, they finaly come to same conclusion.
But … such paradigm shifft could not possibly go without opening huge rift in Western ruling class. Too much interests involved.
Such quake would send economic shockwave all around the globe.
And all we hear is deafening silence.
Pressure is building.
Mmm, that is quite a statement, ‘unable to wage a war’.
A twitter guy that I follow (economics mainly) says the same:
@thesiriusreport
Imagine extent to which data would be manipulated and fabricated, via outright lies, if your currency was $ and matter of national security, so much so that you were prepared to go to war to defend its very existence.
Imagine if you now realised war was no longer an option?
——————-
America will not give up fomenting jihadist terrorism unless it is dealt a painful punishment for these crimes.
That means killing American military, spooks, or mercenaries that are involved in the guidance, training, arming, bankrolling of jihadi terrorists–unlike that famous American bankrolled “Freedom Fighter” Usama Bin Laden, who the Americans claim was involved in the September 11th attacks.
That is the only language Americans understand.
The only question is: who will take on the task of eliminating these American terrorist handlers?
There is only one fundamental test that can be used to unravel the confusing, and rapidly evolving, situation in Afghanistan. If , after coming to power, the Taliban dont immediately eliminate all poppy production in Afghanistan then we will know that they made a deal with ZioAmerica. If they do, then their victory is truthful and valid. Its that simple.
@Anon (the one who wrote): ” Its that simple.”
I agree. When the new Greek government came into power with Varoufakis as Economics Minister, I said to my wife: “If they mean business they will draw up 3 arrest warrants in their first week: One for those Greek ministers who applied to join the EU when Greece could not meet EU economic criteria; one for Goldman Sachs who cooked the Greek account book; and one for those EU bureacrats who accepted Greece on the strength of crooked accounts.”
There were no arrest warrants issued, ever, by that Greek Quisling regime. It’s that simple.
This is tentative. Today, on presstv.ir it is wall-to-wall Afghanistan news and coverage. These moves are clearly being considered as very important and even pivotal for the region. So, let me not talk too much, but let you read yourself.
It does not look like a major war is breaking out. There are skirmishes, but the Afghanistan current government and the Taliban are in continuous talks .. “The Taliban say they now hold 85 percent of Afghanistan, controlling about 250 of the country’s nearly 400 districts. … Afghanistan’s Interior Ministry spokesman Tareq Arian has said efforts are underway to dislodge the Taliban from their newly acquired positions.”
Iran commander: Security prevails on border with Afghanistan
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2021/07/11/661988/Iran-border-security-Afghanistan
and
Afghan officials, Taliban hold ‘serious discussions’ on peace process in Doha
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2021/07/11/661981/Afghan-government-Najia-Anwari-Taliban-militant-group-peace-process-Doha-Qatar
And this caught my interest. It truly looks like the sides want to come to an accommodation of some kind. Look at this announcement of a documentary .. take a look at what it is called:
Press TV to air documentary on both sides of Afghan war
Clearly indicating that both sides have a point here.
I get the feeling that there are some adults in these rooms somehow, though it is currently like reading the tea leaves. What a massive victory it will be for humanity if Afghanistan walks out of this without war, with development funding and support, and most of all peace on the BRI. (Yeah, one can hope!)
The question is ‘how do you rule?’
For the Taliban to rule effectively, they need to make sure there is no future rebellion in their country and that the people are relatively ‘content’. In order to do this, they need to ensure that both sides come to a consensus and the losing side is at least given a spot at the table. Machiavelli puts it this way, always choose a side as even the loser is owed some kind of consideration by the winner – those who choose neither side are lost to both.
One of the feature points of internal Chinese warfare is ‘destroy no infrastructure’ as destroyed infrastructure annoys the peasants and makes it impossible to rule – they never forget that Wu Nation burned down grand-father Ping’s house. Stable rule = huge taxation income = happy rulers.
There is a big problem here with what is called ETIM, the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM). This is mainly the Uighur movement that started the terrorist activities in Jinjiang in China.
Here is Daniel Dumbrill interviewing one of them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjYPei_jfXg
The US took them off of the terrorist list two or so years ago, as part of the trade war against China.
So, I see the spokesperson of the Taliban made this statement according to SyrianGirl
Taliban senior official: “We care about the oppression of Muslims, be it in Palestine, in Myanmar, or in China, and we care about the oppression of non-Muslims anywhere in the world. But what we are not going to do is interfere in China’s internal affairs”
So this is another datapoint to be watched here. China will not open their pockets if this group is given any kind of open sesame by the Taliban.
This is why China called for a “responsible and orderly” withdrawal. The US refused in order to promote chaos. Xinjiang would be one attempted front against China. The second is India and their infrastucture. This seems so as China warned India they were being used for cannon fodder. India does seem to be weighing the warning.
Myannmar very important and fears a sea invasion, needs to stay with Russia.
The problem is the Taliban’s ability to control the Uyghurs.
The rise of the Islamic State in eastern Afghanistan, within the province of “Khurasan”, is also a source of Chinese concern, as the organization is considered a magnet for Uyghur fighters who defected from the ranks of the (Taliban movement). Despite the movement’s attempt to bring the Islamic State under control, officials in Beijing fear that this will not last long after the withdrawal of U.S. forces.
China’s call for a “responsible and orderly” withdrawal has become a constant model in the statements of Chinese officials about the status of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, lest it leaves a vacuum whose results will appear quickly in Xinjiang.
On the other hand, the main Chinese challenges in the Asian region, especially (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle Asian countries) is China’s main security challenges and interests in (South Asia) to prevent the (Islamization and radicalization of the Uighur minority) in the border region of Xinjiang, especially with the desire of Uighur fighters to return from Syria.
In Afghanistan, Chinese officials fear that units of former fighters of the Turkistan (or East Turkestan) Islamic Movement are spreading among the ranks of the (Taliban jihadist movement), since the movement’s succeeded in controlling Badakhshan Province and the Wakhan Corridor located near the Chinese border in 2019.
China has been keen to include its fears of supporting Uyghur fighters in the “good neighborly” agreements that China signed with Central Asian countries, and in the (anti-terror protocol of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization).
The rise of the Islamic State in eastern Afghanistan, within the province of “Khurasan”, is also a source of Chinese concern, as the organization is considered a magnet for Uyghur fighters who defected from the ranks of the (Taliban movement). Despite the movement’s attempt to bring the Islamic State under control, officials in Beijing fear that this will not last long after the withdrawal of U.S. forces.
We can refer here to the statements by Zhao Lijian, the spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, who expressed these concerns once Washington confirmed the date for the withdrawal, saying that “foreign forces stationed in Afghanistan should withdraw in a responsible and orderly manner to ensure a smooth transition in Afghanistan and avoid terrorist forces exploiting the chaos.”
China’s call for a “responsible and orderly” withdrawal has become a constant model in the statements of Chinese officials about the status of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, lest it leaves a vacuum whose results will appear quickly in Xinjiang.
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/462804/China-plans-to-form-alliance-with-Iran-Pakistan-and-Turkey
This would be the second front or attempt to contain China.
New Delhi talks up infrastructure build-up in strategy shift against Beijing
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has inaugurated 63 new bridges and 12 roads in seven states that border China in the last month
Analysts say New Delhi’s move to publicise new infrastructures signals a changing strategy – though it has still been careful when it comes to the sensitive Arunachal Pradesh region
One of the bridges, on the Leh-Loma road which connects the largest town in India’s Ladakh region to areas along its disputed border with China, was described by the defence ministry as a 50-metre steel “superstructure” to facilitate “unhindered movement of heavy weapon systems, including guns, tanks and other specialised equipment”.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3139929/china-india-border-dispute-new-delhi-talks-infrastructure-build
China did tell India it shouldn’t proceed with the Quad, for instance, because it will be used as a pawn or become collateral damage, or, as one Chinese outlet put it, that it will become cannon fodder for the other countries.
https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/what-does-quad-summit-signal-for-u-s-engagement-in-the-indo-pacific/
I predict a lot of trouble for China. Chinese are great planners and ruthless implementors and have shown it over the last 4 decades. What they’re not good at managing is any thing that runs away from the party line. That is the soft under belly of China. Words, letters, opinions, images. Anything of that nature. They (the leadership) have very thin skin for criticism. The West/India otoh has thick skin because they’re used to noisy politics.
I believe the initial attacks against China (and eventually Russia) will start with soft propaganda, working the people with grievances. They are at the western borders of China where the grievances are real. And there’s spotty fireworks on the eastern front too…
I hope the CCCP changes it’s tack to take a softer humanitarian line, than sending the PLA and upping surveillance and putting people behind bars and shutting their voices. If they do, it’ll lend credence to the soft propaganda as they cannot be negotiated with. People will any day take freedom to think and act and pray over a cheap smart phone or TV. Atleast their leaders know this well.
Another problem that’s evident here is China has allied itself with a bunch of unstable countries and they are unstable for a reason. It’s like trying to pet a pit viper. Never ends well. On top of it there’s a religion impedence mismatch. China cannot understand the soul of a musalman. Add to it China takes a linear path to solutions and in politcs with vily despots it never works that way. The real question is can China mount a charm offensive? I find them just too clinical in their dealings for my taste.
@Marfa
“…China has allied itself with a bunch of unstable countries and they are unstable for a reason.”
To understand a reason you first must understand Western political lingo.
“Unstable” means “Without US puppet goverment”.
Let me back that statement with words from eternal Henry Kissinger on his role in dealing with one of such countries:
“The US had to destabilize Chile in order to establish stability.”
For all thinking beings this sounds contradictory, but when you evolve to doublethinker it starts to make sense.
Number of unevolved countries stubbornly refuse to accept benefits of being stabilized by US and run into China’s embrace.
Very nice Lodestar. Each time I look at this, I am just stunned at the wide scope and influence here, and the downstream consequences, from the mountains rocks and sands of Afghanistan. Amazing huh.
”Taliban has said that it sees China as a “friend” to Afghanistan and hoped that China invests in the reconstruction of the war-torn country…Taliban has assured China that it would not host Uyghur militants from the Xinjiang province, some of whom had previously entered Afghanistan to escape from Chinese persecution. The Taliban would also prevent al-Qaeda or any other terrorist group from operating there”.
Taliban assured the Russians about the same.
There is no compelling reason not to take them at their word. Retaliation could be very severe.
As the economic center of gravity heads eastward over Siberia, peaceful development and political stability will increase. Civil disorder and instability meanwhile increase in faraway northern regions that had no moral basis to be an economic power in the first place. The Taliban Government of Afghanistan will enter BRI because there is no alternative or future w/o BRI.
” Taliban senior official: “We care about the oppression of Muslims, be it in Palestine, in Myanmar, or in China, and we care about the oppression of non-Muslims anywhere in the world. But what we are not going to do is interfere in China’s internal affairs”
Very odd, but it seems the Taliban official left one ” shitty ” country , which abuses Muslims on a daily basis, off the list. I wonder why ?
to Anon: Do you believe everything what the MSM tells about China ?? Have you ever been in China especially in the region where Muslims live ? Do you have any first hand personal information about China and Muslims??
Our experience of American, British and European governments have led us to expect ill considered, haphazard and conflict laden responses to international situations and crises as they arise. ‘Governance’ is not really what they’re good at. This being so we are bye the bye accustomed to expect a certain muddling through accompanied by suitable spin campaigns to make it all palatable. I’m wondering if these expectations are appropriate to the rapidly unfolding situation in and around Afghanistan. Are we warranted in presuming incompetence on the part of the Russians and their Chinese allies? I prefer to think that the very capable diplomacy and principled foreign policies of these latter have accurately assessed the situation and work according to a plan that has evolved over the last year or so of wide ranging discussions, ones that the Taliban have actively participated in. Despite noise coming from the media I doubt that anyone is expecting serious cross border problems in the Stans. And it is simply wrong to conflate the Taliban with MB backed and Spook managed jihadi operations that were conceived and funded precisely to make life difficult for Russia and China and their allies. While the Taliban have enjoyed a certain degree of support from the Gulf monarchies it’s questionable to suppose that Afghan Islamic militants are necessarily managed by Atlanticist agencies. Arguably the future of the Taliban as a governing entity depends on their regional standing and thus international support. They know exactly what all the major players want and how they can meet these expectations, both as regards Russian and Chinese security concerns and Chinese economic developmental plans. There is no reason why they cannot work together in mutually beneficial ways. I don’t think that the existence of Uyghurs or Islamist fighters in Afghanistan is necessarily a serious problem. What matters is their funding, supply and management. That’s what the ‘contractors’ and spooks left behind in the wake of the military pullout are for. It’s unrealistic to think that the Taliban will permit the CIA and affiliates to operate on Afghan territory to manage their anti SCO assets. Refugees and displaced peoples are very common in this part of the world. The matter requires political and economic planning. I’m cautiously optimistic.
I think that in terms of the US that it was George Bush Jr. who suggested to America’s adversaries should ‘Bring it on.’ The Taliban have brought it on firstly against the British in the 19th century, then the Russians and then the Americans in the 20th and 21st, The Taliban are now once again, brining it on – big time.
Just an off-topic moment. People talk about analysis, predictions, spitballing .. etc – the differences here and how to do it in geo-political analytic circles.
Well, first, of course, is knowledge but The Saker gave us a course in this kind of analysis and a practical implementation and application thereof. If you go to the 17 open threads first one titled “Drums of war in the Ukraine”, both the analyst and the astute observer will notice that there were two things happening there. That was a real-time course in analysis, besides the information given – the issue is andragogic teaching methods, ie., for adults and not pedagogic, i.e., for children. So, if you take that as a course and check out the information given throughout the period, how one works with too little info (check out the questions), with too much info, with putting together what you have, with filling in blanks on what you do not have, when to conclude and when not. This you will find in the short updates throughout those 17 threads.
There is no spitballing there, but rather a clear exposition of information available, and questions unanswered at that moment in a process. There is a method here. In these 17 threads, you can see one of the methods used together with analytical skills applied to a fast moving situation.
Again, no guesses, no magical predictions based on nothing, but a hard analysis of the realities and what is known and what is not. We leave the spitballing to the western style analysts and Andrei Martyanoff very clearly spells out the dangers of that.
So, the off-topic moment is over and this is actually a fascinating subject, so I will ask that whoever is so inclined, go and open this topic at the Movable Feast Cafe and not discuss it any further here.
More than one comentator pointed that troublemakers will be severely punished by Russian and Chinese military. No one reject possibility, but such statement is standard talking point in current MSM damage-control narative.
Don’t do MSM’s job for free.
You may say I’m a dreamer, but I do not think it will be necessary to resort to violence at all.
In fact, It should be wise to stop thretening Uyghurs for a while, and leave them alone to decide what is in their best interests.
Talibans obviously experienced revelation that Anglos mesmerized them into being cannon fooder against Russians. Then chase them into caves. Literaly bombed them into stone age.
Uyghurs survived for ages on torned edge, proving they are not mindless drones, except those that fell for Anglo’s $cam.
After vitnessed from first row how West treats “allies”, they must be thinking something like:
“With friends like that, who needs enemy.”
Add to that shattered myth of Western invincibility.
While it does not mean that Uyghurs will instantly fall in love with Chinese goverment, it certanly ends riskless life for western instigators and mind-benders.
As Imperial malignant influence fades, Uyghurs could wake up and realise that they are natural bridge between two powerfull civilisations. IF they are smart, they will profit immensly from such position.
The alternative is to believe serial betrayers that you have “Freedom” while they exploit you to the barren rocks.
The choice should be their’s, and their’s only.
“It was gratuitous and it betrayed a certain level of arrogance and dishonesty.”
“You’re out of your depth on this one.”
Like, when he speculated / insinuated that Boeing’s Corporate Management’s incompetence reflected in the B737MAX fiasco perhaps resulted from hiring H-1B visa holders.
The latest example goes like this: If i stated it and google agrees ergo it must be a truism.
Here is the problem: “40% of Indians have access to Sanitation, ergo 60% shit on the sidewalks.”
What if there are no sidewalks and poor Indians go to the earliest forms of sanitation which includes rivers and outhouses?
It is very tiresome to come here and see discussion hijacked by backslappers with a sense of loyalty and of people full of themselves.