by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo knows the importance of rare earth elements, and North Korea has reportedly found one of the world’s biggest deposits 150km from Pyongyang; is this another factor behind the recent thaw with the US?
This may not be about condos on North Korean beaches after all. Arguably, the heart of the matter in the Trump administration’s embrace of Kim Jong-un has everything to do with one of the largest deposits of rare earth elements (REEs) in the world, located only 150 km northwest of Pyongyang and potentially worth billions of US dollars.
All the implements of 21st century technology-driven everyday life rely on the chemical and physical properties of 17 precious elements on the periodic chart also known as REEs.
Currently, China is believed to control over 95% of global production of rare earth metals, with an estimated 55 million tons in deposits. North Korea for its part holds at least 20 million tons.
Rare earth elements are not the only highly strategic minerals and metals in this power play. The same deposits are sources of tungsten, zirconium, titanium, hafnium, rhenium and molybdenum; all of these are absolutely critical not only for myriad military applications but also for nuclear power.
Rare earth metallurgy also happens to be essential for US, Russian and Chinese weapons systems. The THAAD system needs rare earth elements, and so do Russia’s S-400 and S-500 missile defense systems.
It’s not far-fetched to consider ‘The Art of the Deal’ applied to rare earth elements. If the US does not attempt to make a serious play on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK’s) allegedly vast rare earth resources, the winner, once again, may be Beijing. And Moscow as well – considering the Russia-China strategic partnership, now explicitly recognized on the record.
The whole puzzle may revolve around who offers the best return on investment; not on real estate but sexy metal, with the Pyongyang leadership potentially able to collect an immense fortune.
Is Beijing capable of matching a possible American deal? This may well have been a key topic of discussion during the third meeting in only a few weeks between Kim Jong-un and President Xi Jinping, exactly when the entire geopolitical chessboard hangs in the balance.
So metals are not sexy?
Researcher Marc Sills, in a paper titled ‘Strategic Materials Crises and Great Power Conflicts’, says: “Conflict over strategic minerals is inevitable. The dramas will likely unfold at or near the mines, or along the transportation lines the materials must travel, and especially at world’s strategic chokepoints the US military is now generally tasked to control. Again, the power equation is written to include both control of possession and denial of possession by others.”
This applies, for instance, to the Ukraine puzzle. Russia badly needs Ukraine’s titanium, zirconium and hafnium for its industrial-military complex.
Earlier this year Japanese researchers discovered a deposit of 16 million tons of rare earth elements (less than the North Korean reserves) beneath the seabed in the Western Pacific. But that’s unlikely to change China’s – and potentially the DPRK’s – prominence. The key in the whole rare earth element process is to devise a profitable production chain, as the Chinese have done. And that takes a long time.
Detailed papers such as ‘China’s Rare Earth Elements Industry’, by Cindy Hurst (2010), published by the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) or ‘Rare Earth in Selected US Defense Applications’, by James Hedrick, presented at the 40th Forum on the Geology of Industrial Minerals in 2004, convincingly map all the connections. Sills stresses how minerals and metals, though, seem to attract attention only in mining trade publications: “And that would seem to explain in part why the REE contest in Korea has eluded attention. Metals just ain’t that sexy. But weapons are.”
Metals are certainly sexy for US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. It’s quite enlightening to remember how Pompeo, then CIA director, told a Senate Committee in May 2017 how foreign control of rare earth elements was “a very real concern.”
Fast forward to one year later, when Pompeo, taking over at the State Department, emphasized a new “swagger” in US foreign policy.
And fast forward again to only a few weeks ago, with Pompeo’s swagger applied to meetings with Kim Jong-un.
Way apart from a Netflix-style plot twist, a quite possible narrative is Pompeo impressing on Kim the beauty of a sweet, US-brokered rare earth elements deal. But China and Russia must be locked out. Or else. It’s not hard to visualize Xi understanding the implications.
The DPRK – this unique mix of Turkmenistan and post-USSR Romania – may be on the cusp of being integrated to a vast supply chain via an Iron Silk Road, with the Russia-China strategic partnership simultaneously investing in railways, pipelines and ports in parallel to North-South Korean special economic zones (SEZs), Chinese-style, coming to fruition.
As Gazprom’s Deputy CEO Vitaly Markelov has revealed: “The South Korean side has asked Gazprom” to re-start a key project – a gas pipeline across North Korea, an umbilical cord between South Korea and the Eurasian landmass.
Since key discussions at the Far East Summit in Vladivostok in September 2017, the roadmap is set for South Korea, China and Russia to attach the DPRK to Eurasia integration, developing its agriculture, hydropower and – crucially – mineral wealth.
As much as the Trump administration may be late in the game, it’s unthinkable Washington would abandon a piece of the (metal) action.
Look’s like Mike Pompeo loves to play with words. In 2017 he stated “how foreign control of rare earth elements was “a very real concern.” It is not a question of control, but of OWNERSHIP, a huge difference. North Korea has mineral reserves estimated to be worth 7 trillion dollars, while Afghanistan has minerals estimated to be worth 3 trillion dollars. US troops are in Afghanistan. Trump in 2017 sent the US Navy to the North Korean coast without too much planning, being outsmartened by Kim. They met. Now Washington is playing the sophisticated diplomat. However, Washington has one huge problem. North Korea has borders with both China and Russia. South Korea began covert negotiations with the North the moment Trump sent the Navy. Trump got the message that the South does not wish to fight the North. Why should it ? Both are made up of the same people. Now both North and South are looking at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road. And what does the US have to offer ? Brute force ? Not very attractive.
Great Satan from the Land of The Free is only there to save the innocent North Korean people who have suffered enough from the axis of evils dictatorships, famines, a military nuclear maniac, casual killings of civilians, brainwashing, communism, escaping citizens to The Free World.
NK will now enter into Section C8-N2.
Russia/China offer more outside the REEs – energy suplies to North and South Korea and connection to OBOR. That increases the possibility of North/SOuth reuniuon, which they want, but the US does not. The US? Trump won’t be able to remove sanctions (courtesy Bolton/NeoCons) until North Korea loses its nukes. The REEs would be extorted by the US in the form of token payments of food / energy. Once they are gone then the US will renege on whatever deals have been made.
Indeed, and Moon Jae-in is enthusiastic about Russia-proposed projects, which implies NK is equally ready:
A Trans-Korean Main Rail Line, connected to the Trans-Siberian – direct delivery of SK goods up to Europe.
Gas pipeline + power line via NK to SK – and “also to Japan.”
(Interview with TASS today – http://tass.com/economy/1010252)
Bilateral projects plus a coop framework to be signed by September – all for the greater good of Eurasia, Moon enthuses:
“Implementing these plans will contribute to the economic prosperity of all countries on the Eurasian continent.”
(Interview with TASS today – http://tass.com/economy/1010252)
China will offer at least as much – within the OBOR, et.
Can the US offer much more – or even as much?
I do not think that Wall Street will ever get its hands on these DPRK metals. All Russia and China have to do is offer the DPRK a good deal and SCO membership. The Eurasian Economic Union could also offer the DPRK a favorable trade agreement too. And I do not think that the DPRK wants to do any serious business with the USA, which murdered almost 30% of the DPRK’s population during the war…
…and especially at world’s strategic chokepoints the US military is now generally tasked to control.
Afghanistan = Opium and Lithium
The US needs to have its military in NK if it wants to maintain its hegemony, especially in the Pacific.
The US will do with the NK agreement what it has done before. Expect the other side to keep to the agreement while it does what it pleases.
North Korea is China’s proxy , South Korea is a US proxy . The realpolitik negotiations are between China and the US . The development of East Asia has been an US policy decision since the creation of the ‘ Trilateral Policy’. Kim went to Singapore as a de-facto representative of the Chinese Government and the dealings between China have been going on since before the Olympic Games . The latest trade tariff shenanigans against China are really about business proposals that both covet in Korea but especially the West’ desire to maintain its ‘growth’ paradigm and influence in the Asian sphere . China could easily ‘flip the bird’ to the US and develop North Korea along with Russian participation (which is very vital) regardless whether NK denuclearizes or not . If the US decides to do something stupid , which is highly likely with the likes of Bolton , Pompeo ,Nimrata and the rest of the cabal of anglozionist fanatics then its not just the Korean peninsula that will blow up but also Japan and Taiwan and Okinawa . China definitely doesn’t need US imperialism further encroaching on its mainland . This crises will ultimately be settled when the dominance of the predominate fiat currencies and the West’ ability to ‘ Print’ at will is curtailed.
Is the US willing to give up its military presence in return for commercial interests?
Is the US willing to give up its commercial interests in return for military presence?
I imagine China/Russia would be willing to live with the first option.
The Chinese are opting for your first sentence . But who will have the controlling stakes is the question . The Chinese will not play ‘second fiddle’ in their own backyard .
The Evil Empire is lacking on Rare Eath Metals? OOOOOH How sorry I feel that the Evil Empire might be hindered in slaughtering yet untold thousands of innocent people..
F. them. I sincerely hope the US is violently fractured into several independent nations. When that happens I promise to buy a new 70 inch widescreen tv, just to gloat at the destruction, I will even subscribe to Faux News to get the latest.
Not to mention I hope to see Florida getting reclaimed by the sea, what a party, the sharks will be fat.
I wonder why al quaida and ISIS neve target the Evil Empire.. Something to do with funding?
Support the Opioid crisis in the US ! Send money to a congressman of your flavor! Support a local militia of your choosing!
Careful, now. Saker and family chose to live in Florida. There may be a solution that does not require them to relocate. LOL
There may even be a few others in that state and some other states that want and end to Empire and restore some semblance of a Republic. I do reckon even Putin and Xi understand this fact and are hoping the awakening process in the USA goes much farther than it has already, which is why the Xi approach is Win Win Win…….with the Fallback Option of China and Friends Not Lose, If Western Partners Can’t Get the Concept.
It may not seem like enough to many here to moderate their schadenfreude but realize that it is not the absolute amount that counts, but the trend. I’s say it’s about 100 times more in awakening momentum in the last 10 years…..than the previous 50.
I think the task is to keep that going and prosecute the guilty, not condemn the couple hundred million Rip Van Winkles that are just beginning to rub their eyes and wake up.
” I sincerely hope the US is violently fractured into several independent nations”
Well, as an inhabitant of the Northeast of the USA, I would very much welcome a breakup of the USA—but not a violent breakup. I would be quite happy to let the rest of the country take care of itself (at long last!). I really don’t think the Northeast needs the South, the Midwest, California, the Southwest, etc. . . . New England could have its own foreign policy, its own environmental policies, its own medical plan, its own region-wide mass transit infrastructure, become food-independent—the only thing we would really need to import would be gas and maybe cheap meat. We could make a deal with Russia to get LNG from Yamal, on a long, 40-year contract.
In fact, there is a regasification facility right off Gloucester. From the Baltic straight to Boston!
New Englanders could still take an occasional holiday in the Rockies, or even Florida or Vegas.
The only “violent breakup” scenario that I can imagine would involve a lot of violence elsewhere on the planet as well—that is, that would be the context, not a purely domestic violent upheaval. I can’t really foresee a violent breakup where the violence is only within the continental USA. But who knows??
I would love to see New England break away. That’s where all of America’s trouble starts.
Interesting ideas, here. Every now and then California votes on a proposal to separate into three states —- given the contentiousness of its politics and the vastly different outlook of the people in the North, the coast from SF to LA, and the Inland Deserts this would probably satisfy quite a few people initially. San Diego would remain an enclave of the military. If anyone truly hopes that the US is violently fractured into several independent nations , all they have to do is observe the violence that has been happening and is happening now all over America– alas, the violence is nothing new. It’s part of American “culture”. Now, how financially independent would the new nations of the former US be? — — or would they rather rapidly become beggar states under the financial control of…….China? ? — their mineral deposits and real estate would be collateralized for loans from……. China again? ?
What about Trump/USA looking into Space for REEs? We don’t know much about what’s on the moon besides H3 and on Mars. Things are evolving pretty fast and now, with USA Space Force activated, secret technology and alien back-engineering stuff (we don’t have proofs except all the alien/UFOs disclosure talking people), who’s to say that there isn’t a surprise or two not known to the negotiating parties?
I know it’s a lot of “suppositions” but I’m convinced that there is a lot more that “we don’t know” than we know.
We can’t even get around the “Fake News” yet.
I’m committed to “visiulizing and praying” for “advanced thinking and discoveries”, and I will admit and confess that I’m idealistic and utopian.
Yet, visions are what concentrate thoughts into beliefs, and eventually some humans are daring and foolish enough to dare believe that we could possibly fly???!!! etc…
LOVE and JOY my Saker-friends
I doubt it. We haven’t made war to GET resources in a hundred years. Most of our wars are plain old evil, obliterating Muslims and Christians for psychopathic pleasure. When there’s any resource purpose at all, it’s an attempt to ELIMINATE resources in countries that might compete with Saudi oil. Libya, Iraq, Persia.
If this mineral was worth exploiting, China would ALREADY exploit it. They’ve had 60 years of control over NK, plenty of time to get the mines and processing plants going.
Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) Anthem with English Translation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtFHZKEk6ts
In 19th century Jevons described non intuitive fact that increases in efficiency in the use of resource, (coal in Jevons’ time) resulted in increases (not decreases) in absolute consumption.
Obvious RE elements and metals in general are subject to same agencies.
Technically addicted mankind is chasing the last pork-chop, as, so long as he lives by killing, he must do.
Kim smart to make gadgets, but making gadgets is stupid…this is the contradiction that goes with the “paradox” of Jevons. To stay alive and keep position we are obliged by circumstance to live by killing, and doing other stupid stuff, like making Pu in reactors…and squishing the stuff into shiny half-balls…gems that can kill everybody, and their dog.
Planting gardens and affirming life runs counter to the “economy” of killing. But nobody can get rich that way. Nobody can feed their lusts and demons gardening…
That would be nice, eh?
Meantime, here we are at the freak show, addicted to tech…which is killing us…and we can not get off the runaway train…
So a read of the wiki on REE may interest some…many are not rare…just hard to get to – as always, the rich people want to grab the easy stuff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_element The geological distribution section at wiki is very interesting.
Geeze, all this stuff about rare earth elements must be pretty hard thinking for the military and political Neanderthals at HQ. But no problem, they can just go out and hire some “intellectuals” to do that part for them, so that they can get back to killing people, which is what they really like to do.
China controls PRODUCTION of REE’s not DEPOSITS. It’s like we are back in 2005 when CNBC & Bloomberg where hyping REE prices with this nonsense thesis of China “controls” REE’s, world ending soon!!
Here is a map showing that the US, Russia, India all have significant reserves (from the US Department of Energy) : https://www.energy.gov/maps/estimated-rare-earth-reserves-and-deposits
Here is another map (from the US Geological Survey) : https://mrdata.usgs.gov/mineral-resources/ree.html
Here is a report (PDF) from the USGS showing the US alone has 13% of world deposits, while producing 0%: https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5220/downloads/SIR10-5220.pdf
Smart Americans make everyone overproduce their finite resources while using regulation to shut down their own and keep them as strategic reserves.
If the DPRK wants to pollute their environment with REE’s production that lowers the global prices (thus competing with the Chinese), then the US would be more than happy to give them a helping hand and yes US corporations will want to grab as much as they can not because of a “strategic” concerns but because they are a greedy bunch who want to milk the world for their own profits.
Given that REE are only useful as pure elements, (ie as Samarium, as Yttrium), and that as a group these metals are notoriously difficult to separate from each other, what makes a potential REE ore economical is not only the prevalence of the element in question, but also the absence of other REE’s that muck up the separation. Rare earths aren’t even rare, mixed REE makes the spark on disposable lighters.
High production implies access to economic ores, not to mention a high tolerance for pollution.
If Washington has realized NK rare earth treasure, you can rest assured that China and Russia are far ahead in the game. It’s very likely that the U.S. regime’s greed for these strategic materials is being used to leverage the situation. After all, the U.S. isn’t known for brilliant diplomacy. Unlike their adversaries.
The main reason probably is much more mondane: they are just drawing down troops to focus on the Middle-East: the time that Pentagon was dreaming of fighting two simultaneous wars is over.
In the meanwhile, USG can trumpet about it’s peaceful nature. It can unjustifiably be lauded for the it’s fake-denuclearization plan.
Re “This applies, for instance, to the Ukraine puzzle. Russia badly needs Ukraine’s titanium, zirconium and hafnium for its industrial-military complex.”
Has Russia paid Ukraine for these minerals in the past (I mean, post-USSR)?
Can it still buy them?
I understand that western agribusiness concerns are also eyeing Ukraine’s chernozem, black earth.
This from Pompeo sounds a lot like “What are our rare metals doing in North Korea?!”
Katherine
You seem to have left out the fact that NK produces prodigious amounts of opium.
Since it is known that somewhere around 90% of the world’s opium originates in Afghanistan could you please reference this “fact” about ” prodigious amount” of NK opium you speak of?
Thank you Pepe. You essays teach me stuff I didn’t know.
There is a substantial “Rare Earth” deposit in Canada. See avalonadvancedmaterials.com!
Pepe sometimes shows his lack of knowledge of science and technology with essays like these. Rare earth elements are not ‘rare’. China ‘controls’ 95% of rare-earth elements because they are a by-product of other mining, of which China does quite a bit. The reason other countries don’t produce ‘rare earths’ is that they are cheaper from China. If the US needed rare earths from another source, there is plenty under its own dirt. The fact that NK has a huge deposit is not insignificant. Having a valuable material is a good thing. But, it is not of strategic importance, as this and other misinformed articles state.
Interesting piece on how N. Korea’s nuclear program is set to provide a major boost to its economy. Less spending on conventional defence = more funds available for investment.
http://militarywatchmagazine.com/read.php?my_data=70691