By Amarynth for the Saker Blog
Let me first give the links to the debate in question (and this is a sitrep, so it is more freewheeling than a serious article for the Saker blog).
We’ve been talking about Ritter’s 180 swing in his coverage on both the SMO-404 and the Russian capabilities.
This article, titled “Ukraine War Has No End in Sight” gives the Ritter view post his 180: https://www.energyintel.com/00000180-d669-d410-aba9-f66dbd120000 and there were three prior videos where this view developed. But this written form is good enough.
Andrei Martynov weighed in and Larry Johnson weighed in on various occasions and on a professional basis. Gonzalo Lira weighed in his casual style. On the Saker Blog, I weighed in during discussions and even analyzed a few paragraphs of Ritter’s article.
Even Pepe Escobar had to retract a quasi ‘Ritter sentence’ that he used. This was his short and creative retraction. “Martyanov is right on Western Ukraine. I should have emphasized the conditionalities – as it stands a 404 “New Model Army” is American wishful thinking.”
All of these people (including myself) were 180 opposite to Ritter’s view and I for one asked for evidence of this New Scary NATO army because clearly, Wunderwaffe came to mind.
Yet, there is no discussion and Ritter did it again. This time in an interview with Sputnik here:
Both Andrei Martyanov as well as Larry Johnson weighed in again.
Before I quote from their work, let’s try to answer the question of Why? Why are we responding to Ritter in this manner? I will give you only my personal perception. I view Ritter’s 180 as pushing NATO talking points and even spreading Ukrainian manure. He assumes a static position from Russia. After his 180, his tone changed and he presents NATO as the All Powerful and backed by the US Money Machine and Weapons Machine, as Invincible. He creates new armies out of thin air, and professes knowledge of the Russian thinking and possible future actions which he cannot possibly know. We can then discuss whether this is pure deception of his mainly western audience, or purely disingenuous, or a project based on a think-tank or something. I hope it is none of those, and that he will enter into discussion and debate with his peers. (Note Johnson’s article quoted later in this report). If not, we have to question his whole basis for pumping American Wishful Thinking, as well as the substance of his presentation.
I’ll go back to an older quote from Martyanov: “That is why when I hear that some piece of metal and a pile of increasingly diminishing US Dollars are going to make any real tactical, operational, let alone strategic difference in 404, other than being blown up or taken as trophies, I smile. Even LDNR people today complain (in Russian) that most of the US equipment when even not-expired and up to date, often doesn’t work and breaks down. I know, for true American patriot such as Scott it is difficult to accept this fact but in the last 20 years it goes without saying that institutional rot completely engulfed America’s strategic and operational thought and, and I wrote three books on that, US increasingly produced weapons which like Javelins or Littoral Combat Ships, or F-35 or Patriot PAC 3s are not really suited for a serious war against competent enemy who, in addition, like Russia, has all means to see the enemy and destroy it.” http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/05/on-my-brief-response-to-scott-ritter.html
Let’s go to Larry Johnson’s latest titled: Debating Scott Ritter.
He deals with the new funding, western weapons supply, training and intelligence sharing. And he posts a video of Gonzalo Lira, who in his casual format understands these matters. Here are some points but read the whole article:
- Money may make the world go around but it does not magically produce trained, enthusiastic troops willing and capable of using such weapons.
- Ukraine’s problem right now is not a lack of equipment. They had combat aircraft, helicopters, tanks, artillery and drones. Russia destroyed a significant amount of that materiel and killed the soldiers and pilots who were trained to operate those systems.
- Scott Ritter sees the training of Ukrainian troops in Poland and Germany as a critical variable that could really hurt the Russians. Training reinforcements on new technology might be a potential game-changer if the situation on the ground in Ukraine was static. It is not.
- Scott also asserts that intelligence sharing gives the Ukrainians an edge. When you provide intelligence on Russian troop movements, locations or plans, there is an assumption that the recipients of that intelligence will be able to do something to hurt the Russians. How did that work out in Mariupol? How about fending off the Russian missile attack in Desna. In my view, sharing intelligence with Ukraine is an effort in futility. Am empty gesture that will not change anything on the ground.
How to actually understand this Hot Potato?, and it is an important one. The Ukraine SMO is only but a small representation of what Russia means by stopping the growth of NATO, indivisibility of security, the security balance in Europe, and most important, military-technical measures. And then, one has to bring into the calculus that China is solid behind Russia in the thinking, and further, that the US pre-amble to actual kinetic action in the Ukraine, is now being duplicated around China. The dead give-away is that SHOULD in Biden’s sentence. Remember the many ‘ifs’ and ‘shoulds’ that we saw in the runup to Russia entering the Ukraine. “President Joe Biden said Washington could be directly involved in conflict should China try to take the island by force.” They are again trying to project and create a condition that is not necessarily there.
And this is the tone change in Ritter’s work. He is projecting a condition that is not necessarily existent and presents it as fact.
We have to understand that NATO is now being presented as the ultimate force projection by the small collective west. Those familiar with Martyanov’s work understand that this is but a paper tiger and the boogyman (although with destructive ability) under the bed. This is a projection and the small collective west only has a boogyman left to threaten the world.
Here is another such projection, this time with a clown: Klaus Schwab has just introduced President Zelensky of Ukraine to the World Economic Forum in Davos with a glowing tribute saying that all of Europe and the international order stands with him.
Lira’s view is important here, albeit not professional. He asks the question, Why is it Absurd that the Ukraine is standing up a million man new army? (Short, 7 minutes or so).
For comments, I remind you, that this is not a personality contest. As Johnson says – it is a substantive matter. So commentators, please be reasonable and kind, and don’t tell us who you like most. At least present knowledge of the substance of this matter. From the commentariat, let’s keep this one closely focused on the topic.
There is a bigger picture here. From here and there in Europe, we see that everyone is now desperately scrambling for a peace plan. A contributor sent me this one from Italy titled Now, Italy begins backtracking on its promises and extending an olive branch toward Russia. https://tfiglobalnews.com/2022/05/22/now-italy-begins-backtracking-on-its-promises-and-extending-an-olive-branch-toward-russia/
I smiled, on two accounts. This peace plan is Minsk redux!
And secondly, why this reach for a peace plan now? Besides worrying about economics and gas and oil, it is another containment of Russia. They all know Russia will win in the Ukraine, the way Russia perceives it, handsomely. So, everyone desperately wants to devise new conditions, because the fear is that Russia will not stop. So, they want to devise peace now, and send Russia back to Russia. The news is that we are in a world-changing epoch, and Russia will not stop but take her full part in this world-changing epoch, preferably peacefully, but if not, military-technical.
The Ritter thing baffles me. I like Scott Ritter, and I recognize his experience and expertise, but I cannot bring myself to agree with him. Ukrainian morale is in the toilet, and Russian/Donbas morale is soaring-This is crystal clear, and I think the result of seeing defeat after defeat/victory after victory for the opposing sides here.
The American motivation, in my mind, is that they believe they will profit either way. Even if Ukraine soundly loses this conflict and is erased as a nation, US elites will still see it as a win, because it cost Russia men and material, and look at all that ComBloc equipment that has been turned into scrap- it will all have to be replaced, by the cheaply made, yet extremely expensive, corrupted weapons and equipment produced by the west.
All that said, I have seen videos of the huge number crop fields that have been stripped of topsoil and turned into parking lots for heavy weapons in Romania and Poland on Telegram and I cannot help but wonder if NATO is going to be stupid enough to go for it. Looks like they might be- and of course they understand the need for strategic/tactical surprise, so they have no incentive to threaten invasion or discuss the buildup on the Ukrainian border. Unlike Ritter, I do not think NATO can win, but they will kill huge numbers, and render many homeless (of course nobody in NATO cares), trigger an even worse global depression, and who knows how far it could escalate. Absolute madness.
“I do not think NATO can win, but they will kill huge numbers, and render many homeless (of course nobody in NATO cares), trigger an even worse global depression, and who knows how far it could escalate. Absolute madness.”
It seems the collective West tries to do this to Russia every century or so, always with the same result. This is the definition of insanity.
Well, what i see as the ultimate argument for Russian success (hi all, never posted here before), is this (i didn’t see this argument posted) :
People talk about this NATO force that’ll come and mess things up.. well.. Russia has already encountered them and practically wiped them out… i am of course talking about the Ukrainian standing army, which has been trained by NATO since 2014 to a “NATO standard”. This army by and large no longer exists, it has been…well, lets call it removed from the board. Anything they train in Poland / Germany isn’t going to tip any scales.. the army they had was the best they had, the best motivated, best led, with the best equipment (that they were very familiar with), etc.. it’ll take YEARS to rebuild that, if it is even possible at this point.
Yeah, good points. And I will add this re the best motivated, no future band of NATO losers will be as motivated as the Ukie Neo Nazis are/were. Say what you will about them but we must admit they have buckets full of motivation.
Hatred, ignorance, and brainwashing tends to do that.
As far as the $40 billion bill breakdown, someone over at Larry Johnson’s did the breakdown. Here is the result:
QUOTE:
Greg says
23 May 2022 at 03:58
I was curious, so I did a bit of looking. Here’s the bill breakdown https://appropriations.house.gov/sites/democrats.appropriations.house.gov/files/Additional%20Ukraine%20Suplemental%20Appropriations%20Act%20Summary.pdf
It breaks down like this – i’ve grouped it by country likely benefiting. There’s usd17b in there for actual weapons for ukraine, before you get to the various ways that number will be reduced in effect. 11bn are drawdown from existing stocks, likely more old busted/useless stuff.
No comment in the brief on how that 11bn drawdown is priced, whether they add up to 11bn in original purchase cost, inflation adjusted cost, replacement cost, or replacement cost + kickbacks, etc.
us
600m defense production
550m us munitions stocks
900m for refugees
54m CDC for refugees
350m State Dept refugees
190m kyiv embassy ops
10m kyiv embassy tech
110m kyiv embassy security
100m state dept nonproliferation
67m DOJ for seizing ru assets
52m dept of treasury seizing ru assets
20m bill emerson humanitarian trust
17m USAID ops
total ~3bn
eu + elsewhere
4350m international disaster assistance
4000m foreign military financing program – incl ua
3900m euro command ops incl patriot battery
150m global ag and food for price increases
total ~12bn
ua
6000m ua security assistance initiative = weapons + training
11000m drawdown authority for sending us weaps to ua
8766m economic support in ua
500m to ua via eu for economy & energy
400m law enforcement
2m support ua nuclear agency
total ~27bn
weapons ~17bn, at least 2/3 from existing stocks
End Quote
So “$40 billion” translates into at most $17 billion – which is not much different from the previous $13 billion – which has not achieved squat in Ukraine so far.
I think Ritter’s probably wrong. But even “highly probably” is not 100% certitude. I have seen photographs of a dozens fuel tanker wagons train going into the Ukraine. It was supposed to be destroyed “en route” but I’m still missing photographs of that destruction. I have seen videos of Poland’s T-72 on, at the very least, Krivoy Rog and probably further east. AFAIK, those tanks must go there by train. They were supposed to be destroyed “en route” also, yet there they are, unscathed and trying to kill russian soldiers. Western leaders are going to use that as evidence that “Ukraine can be resupplied” and “We could win that war”. So it would have been much, much better if they were effectively destroyed, as hyped by pro-russian commentators. Then it could be given as evidence that “Ukraine can’t be resupplied” and “Russia will win anyway”. But that’s not the case actually.
For training, since to seize Popasna took over a month, going until Poland’s frontier could take enough time to give some valuable training to Ukranian troops. If that training is done inside Poland and germany, would the russians attack them here? All of this just adds complexity and difficulty to the special military operation. So, Ritter *could* have a point, and even if the probability is low, because the Ukraine is running out of manpower, western weapons are bad, ta-da-ta-da-ta-da-da-da, I would feel easier, should those trains being filmed after destruction.
I still have to see just a commentator giving any explanation about how those trains got trough Russias air power/missile strikes or even how is it possible that the ukrainian railways are still able to let circulate any train at all.
Colective west can’t afford to lose this conflict so I think they will do anything they can. Trains getting through makes them able to spin that they are succedding in their “task”. That’s bad for Russia, not to mention that it directly translates in more time to finish the operation and more dead russian guys.
Don’t get me wrong, I hope and think Russia will win and that will be very good for the entire world. But if trains with a hundred tanks/fuel tankers can reach the fronts, that’s bad, and need to be dealt with.
Tanks may be allowed to reach the front line. The problem is whether fuel would reach the tanks. Why waste expensive missiles to hunt then en route when they won’t be able to move once unloaded from the trains?
TLDR: This is how I got what Scott said (I could be wrong):
“Don’t do this, Russia will have to react and it will be bad for all parties around the world, but mostly for the West.
Start to negotiate, now.”
My point of view:
I think that Ritter just want to underline that West, in it is own despair, want to suck Russia in the “neverending story” with Ukraine. You can call it a new Lebanon or so.
What it means (for me): Russia is going to achieve her primary millitary objectives, very soon (just as Ritter said). No doubt about it.
Normal person instead Zelensky would say: “OK, game over, it is time to negotiate”. Most of EU countries will sign it.
However, pumped with “endless” money and weapons from West (mostly from USA or directed from), it could force Russia to plan B, C, D or whatever: to absorb more and more of Ukraine, until Ukraine is forced to stop (fighting – bleeding).
In the worst scenario, Russia will absorb whole Ukraine, and this was not a goal of Russia – not that way, that is for sure.
However, if “guerilla” atrocities somehow continue from Moldova, Romania, Poland… Russia will have to react.
More or less, it means open war with NATO.
It could be that Scott Ritter got “new/old employer”, but how it seems to me is that Scott just adapted his rhetoric to be heared from average American.
Like: “you can convert this special millitary operation to war and get this war to continue endlesly, but it is still road to nowhere.”
“Game changer” is road to hell. Much worse and much costly then Vietnam, Afghanistan etc.
Don’t underestimate West Stupidity, could he hidden message from Scott.
Reading your last paragraph Amarynth – truly, I couln’t have said it better! It’s the case of the Mob, attacking and kicking someone, but then that someone turns around and and goes after them. They flee and hide, wetting themselves in fear that now they will get caught and be dealt with. Individually. The Mob mentality in the so-called West is priceless! So is the cowardice. I think it’s high time they get their collective arses whipped once again by Russia, something that Russia had to do repeatedly over the centuries with this stinking eurotrash West, but they seem to forget the punishment and start once again with their despicable behaviour. Must be inbred, cannot help themselves. This time they are doing it under the guidance of so-called Hegemon, who unfortunately has feet of clay. So, there will be another whipping coming to them. Their NATO will be dismantled, their EU garbage will end up on life support.
And they will be told that NEXT time there will be no whipping, they will be simply destroyed. Russia has had enough of their collective mendacity fuelled by greed, envy and hatreds.
I think that the european population may get tired, seeing millions/billions being sent for a country that was a risk form them (the evidences already are on the table and come more). They can suddenly demand to their governors to stop this madness. Inflation, lack of food, gas and oil can determine the end of this support to Ukraine. The “Winter” General is still to appear.
Prof Marandi is right, the ‘West’ is stupid, just want them to be over & done is all, have them admit moral & economic bankruptcy to stop the death of life on earth, we all can live in peace, a life of money-is-all is past
https://twitter.com/richimedhurst/status/1528815181287022594
My two cents:
“The news is that we are in a world-changing epoch,” – I think that is central to Ritter’s change in views and I think that he, along with nearly all of the collective West are having some cognitive dissonance over it. I don’t think Ritter has been bullied, bought off, etc as many suggest, I think he doesn’t quite see the writing on the wall, or, seeing it, just hasn’t fully accepted it yet. As Andrei Martyanov said, he’s a true US patriot. He is also a former Cold Warrior and was brought up under the “Soviets must be stopped” mentality. Frankly, I think it’s nothing short of a testament to his professionalism and personal character that he is as professional and forthright as he is about Russian military capability. We all get stuck in old thinking sometimes.
The scrambling for peace I think you assess rightly; they see that 404 is lost and Russia is essentially free to do whatever she likes there so there is a desperate attempt to slow and stop the LOC where it is.
In my opinion, the West knows that if the Russians push on, they do not have the means to stop them – conventionally or with nuclear means. They know full well that if they commit Western personnel, they will be destroyed and this is an embarrassment they cannot take. They also know that an utter humiliation of their military could bring the dingbats out in a panic screaming for tactical nukes – again, that means the West will cease to exist and they know this. I think they finally get that Russia is not, and never has been, bluffing about anything.
The problem in managing the West is this – they are a defeated narcissist with the means to inflict significant harm and will shortly be “surrounded” on three sides. I’ve seen individuals like this persist well beyond the point of reason in the legal field. They could have solved their trouble long ago if they had just accepted a small defeat but they were unable to do that so they ended up losing even more and dragging many people along with them down the road of defeat.
The US/Collective West is the same animal. They could have avoided the embarrassment long ago but were mentally/emotionally incapable of doing so.
So for me, the real question is when surrounded on three sides, which side will Russia leave open for them to escape?
It’s a big mess, but I’m quite optimistic about how it’s going to end.
“they are a defeated narcissist with the means to inflict significant harm and will shortly be “surrounded” on three sides.”
Hence the question posed in 1969 and subsequent: How to drown a drowning man with the minimum of blowback ?
More Good News:
ANNA NEWS
forwarded from
Older than Edda
Judging by the news coming in today, in the offensive zone of the Brave grouping, the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to crumble. I predicted this a couple of days ago, but relied on purely subjective feelings. Heavy losses, failures of numerous counter-offensives promised by Arestovich and other talking Ukrainian assholes, constant exposure to Russian artillery, missile systems and aircraft, should eventually lead to the complete exhaustion of the Ukrainian side.
Despite the fact that the strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Donetsk front is very significant, and the fortified areas and general geography contribute to a long-term defense, the above factors cause terrible war fatigue. I know from my own experience how unpleasant it is when a missile danger is announced several times a day, and the enemy’s cannon and rocket artillery does not let them relax, what can we say about the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Air defense saves us from missile danger, but after such a warning (if it is brought to them at all), the airmen have to package their less fortunate comrades in bags.
The collapse of the Ukrainian defensive line in the area of Severodonetsk does not yet mean victory in the war, but it will be a very heavy blow both to the Zbroyny forces of Ukraine and to the national myth about the successfully developing war against Russia, in which Ukraine, if not winning, then at least doesn’t lose.
In short, you are anticipating that the Anglo-Zionists will blink first. I certainly hope so, but this presumes that rational people are in charge in the United States and the EU. The preponderance of the evidence is that they are not. Poland has demonstrated this by conspiring to think that it can “bleed” Russia into submission by continuing to arm Ukraine with the latest NATO toys. It cannot, so NATO is escalating. The EU political class also showed suicidal tendencies by threatening to put an end to Russian gas and oil without credible alternatives. Will it show the same bad judgment on the question of general war between NATO and Russia?
I give a special place to the Poles in this collective insanity in the West. As in the buildup to WWII, the Poles continue the bluster that they can win against Russia this time (with NATO instead of Great Britain, of course, coming to the rescue this time). The Poles precipitated the German attack on Poland in WWII by openly persecuting the Volksdeutsch living in Poland. The Polish military bragged that it would be in Berlin two weeks after hostilities broke out. A simple comparison of the respective German and Polish orders of battle would, however, have suggested otherwise. Now, Poland has stopped Russian gas and oil without alternative energy sources. It wants Lwow (to the Polish), Lviv (to the Ukrainians), Lvov (to the Russians), and Lemberg (to the Germans) back as a Polish city at any cost. As the saying goes, “History does not repeat itself but it often rhymes.” [?]
And, by the way, have you noticed that Zelensky and others in the Ukrainian hierarchy have Polish names? This is not immaterial in the politics being played between Poland and Ukraine.
In the aftermath of WWII, Poland was given German lands in the west to compensate Poland for Polish lands given to the Soviet Union in the east. Now, Poland wants Galicia (western Ukraine) back. What is this? Are the Poles delusional about reestablishing the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of the 18th Century at any cost? Is this the real game that Poland is playing as it solicits guarantees from NATO, the EU, and the United States?
Hence, the Poles are the wild card in all of this. They are just as delusional and dangerous today as they were in 1939.
“Are the Poles delusional about reestablishing the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of the 18th Century at any cost?”
No that is mostly for some Polish “intellectuals” in terms of mystification by cultural precedent predicated on the continuing half-lives of Polish Romanticism.
Understanding some potentials of Polish Romanticism whilst not immersed in it themselves, others, including but not limited to “The United States of America” of which “NATO” and “Poland” are presently components, are seeking a modified version of The Second Polish Republic, and have been seeking this modified version since at least March 1943 as strategic back-up in the war with “The Soviet Union” and the subsequent ongoing war with the Russian Federation, given that machinations of the treaty of Versailles and subsequent lost potency in the period from 1926 to 1944.
“They are just as delusional and dangerous today as they were in 1939.”
No they did learn some things from their experiences from 1939 to date, including but not limited to misrepresenting the strategic disasters of the Second Polish Republic and their complicities in disaster facilitation, including the Warsaw rising of 1944 and civil wars in Galicia and Wolyn, the Polish Government in Exile being deemed to be the continuation of the Second Polish Republic, hence the reference above to potencies of the Treaty of Versailles from 1926 to 1944.
You can’t rebuild an Army overnight and even if you could you have to bring the Army to where it matters. Right now that would be Odessa. Donbass is lost, Luhansk will be done in six weeks, Donetsk another two months after that. The regrouping will take a while after that as well, but by late this fall, early winter, Odessa will be surrounded. That’s the only outcome that matters to either side after Donbass falls.
Ukraine will do everything it can right now to push back Russian positions from Odessa, while the battle is raging in Donbass is their best time to strike in that direction. They will be somewhat successful because they will be pouring everything they get from the West into that fight. Why? Because they know Donbass is lost and they don’t want Ukraine to be landlocked. NATO will do everything it can to save Odessa because it’s Ukraine’s last access to the Black Sea, including it’s oil and natural gas reserves.
The way out is to sue for peace and accept the loss of Donbass, but Z’s American overlords might be too ignorant to see this and instead will risk a nuclear showdown over Odessa and the Black Sea Reserves this fall, right in time for midterm elections by the way.
The conundrum of Ritter’s about-face and quick march into into a cauldron of his own making. Scott has from the get-go been a tad over positive about the unfolding of this SMO and his initial understanding of it. And, as we moved from one day to the following week been modifying his position. There is more importantly perhaps the problem of Scott’s serious blinking which suggests high levels of stress. Unfortunately, I am not privy to any insider info on the above, so I cannot reach any logical conclusion based on speculation. However, I do believe (rightly/wrongly) that Scott Ritter is a decent and honourable man and after many years of going toe to toe with the Yanki deep state, he has been got to. There is in my mind no other possible conclusion that can be arrived at. Just look at the lengths that the Yanki Deep State has gone to to murder Julian Assange by circumventing Justice and all their other acts of violence across the planet where murder, terror and torture are engaged freely to subvert and to destroy humanity. This SMO is the sledgehammer designed by Russia to smash this Evil Cabal. And while Scott Ritter may no longer be in a position to lend his authority to help cleanse the Swamp of Evil we have many others who will pour copious amounts of soda, as in caustic onto it. Eventually, this Russian Sledgehammer will prevail..
I think all Russia has to do in order to win is continue squeezing Ukraine until it can take no more and is ready to sue for peace on Russia’s terms. It may take another year, but the Ukrainian population will sooner or later break and either force change on their rulers or change rulers. Either way, the war ends without coming anywhere close to draining Russia’s economy dry or bleeding its army white (quite the contrary: war will stimulate the Russian economy and hone its military into a far superior weapon than NATO can hope to field). At that point, Russia can concentrate on consolidating its gains in territory, resources, and population, while continuing its economy’s reorientation from West to East.
I simply don’t see how the West’s flooding Ukraine with money, weapons, intelligence, Western military specialists, and/or Polish battalions can stop the inevitable prostration of Ukraine before the end of next year. Yes, resistance will continue so long as the West keeps feeding it, but I would expect Russia to crush it in ten to twenty months by counterinsurgency methods of the kind it pioneered in the Caucasus and applies today in Syria.
The long and the short of it is that Ritter is simply impatient with Russia’s anaconda approach of squeezing Ukraine into surrender by slowly but surely breaking the state. Which is what Putin warned would happen if Russia were forced to send in its military.
A few comments.
1. My view is Ritter has been got at. No surprise there, standard modus operandi throughout the West for people who step out of line. Maybe he’ll hang himself whilst under 24 hour watch shortly /sarc off.
2. Martyanov explains regularly how $40B is meaningless if it isn’t used to produce battle-worthy arms, or just wasted via corruption. Most of the West’s vaunted weapons are inferior going on useless against a peer competitor. Fine for beating up hapless victims though.
Million man army? Don’t make me laugh. Who, from where? The West’s supply chains are stuffed. They’ve admitted it will take years to replace the stuff they’ve sent to Ukraine, which in reality doesn’t work and needs redesigning.
3. Any video of the conflict you watch clearly shows the mental/moral conviction is with the Russians/LDR forces, except for the rabid Azov crowd and assorted mercs, who look professional, but have twisted beliefs.
4. Why should Russia hurry? The West is defeating itself and “never interrupt an enemy when he is making a mistake”.
5. There is a force that appears to be demonic, operating behind the scenes driving the West and it’s being doing that for a long time. Currently it seems to be steering the West to destroy itself (watch videos of US inner cities) for reasons that aren’t clear yet.
Whether it’s the historical oligarchical families, the Rothschild/Rockefellers, WEF, Davos, Zionists, assorted Billionaires or David Icke’s Demiurge (Satan described in a different way) et al we don’t know.
6. Notwithstanding all this, Peak Oil II happened in late 2018 after Peak Oil I in 2005. Given that:
(i) industrial agriculture feeds the world and we need 12-14 calories of FF for every calorie of food we eat
and
(ii) FFs are declining and people are increasing
One way or another more people than expected will be departing shortly.
7. My view is at the material level most of the current ‘initiatives’, be it COVID, the jab and other bioweapons and this war relate to Peak Oil and the related fight for diminishing resources and the (perceived) need for population reduction.
At the spiritual level it’s a fight for your soul. Where do you stand and is this the hill you’re willing to die on?
Los Estados Unidos han librado muchas guerras, pero muy pocas batallas y ninguna en condiciones de igualdad contra un ejército moderno y poderoso. Irán puso de manifiesto que toda su fuerza se les escapa por la boca y Rusia tomó buena nota de ello. Entrenar terroristas no es lo mismo que formar soldados.
Good Afternoon,
Andrei Martyanov has quoted some time ago of a RF defence ministry official as saying that they don’t even “sweat” about entire NATO. So how this arming, upgrading, training of new UAF personnel going to affect anything? RF did not even “start” the real fight in Ukraine – because it doesn’t need to, not now and not in future, SMO is enough to deal with whatever UAF might bring to battle in future. With air superiority, best trained and disciplined military personnel on the ground, real time battle surveillance and artillery support, the RF does not need anything much more.
The issue that I have with Scott Ritter’s 180 U-turn is that, that he being the “cold war” warrior and because of his background as a retired USMC officer who thoroughly understands military matters, especially Russian military tactics should know that in the vicinity(up to 1000 kms) around the Russian Federation(RF), the armed forces of RF cannot be defeated by any sized force – period. RF armed forces enjoy greater escalatory dominance when approaching toward RF borders.
Furthermore, dealing with Ukraine is just the beginning. RF will “fight” till NATO will be forced back to 1997 borders and all the NATO military infrastructure after 1997 of its expansion is either dismantled or destroyed. RF will not negotiate any threat to its security anymore neither will it allow anyone to have carte blanche freedom to kill ethnic Russians anywhere anymore without dire consequences and SMO proves it.
President Putin and the political leadership of RF is indeed very patient and wise. God almighty promises to guide and give victory to those people who are patient and wise. The victory will be of the RF and its people.
– Best wishes,
WM
I agree with your comments bar one; “as a retired USMC officer who thoroughly understands military matters, especially Russian military tactics ..”
Ritter was schooled in Soviet military tactics. What Russia is currently doing is totally new. And mostly still unknown to any but themselves.
All wars come down to a resources war.
Have you ever considered that the U.S needed this war more then Russia?
The Americans are only wasting money and Ukrainian lives…this war will continue as long as the Americans can bleed their allies of both resources and Ukrain of Ukrainians.
This isn’t about Ukraine…this war is about the U.S unipolar world…these freak who run the U.S will nuke us all to maintain their status.
Don’t bet on the American population removing these freaks because they have been domesticated and neutered long ago.
The U.S is now practicing “whack a mole.” Any country that dares to challenge their position will be clobbered with all the resources the U.S posses.
If Russia didn’t consider this then they have to re-evaluate and China…if they want to sit at the table better start acting financially because if the U.S knocks Russia out of the game the focus will be fully on them.
Where the Hell is Ukraine going to get one million, physically fit men for this new army and still maintain their economy? Take a look at Ukraine’s population structure:
https://www.populationpyramid.net/ukraine/2060/
The second big question is how in the Hell is NATO going to fund, support and train Ukrain’s new army after Russia shuts off Europe’s supplies of oil and natural gas?
Ritter does make a valid point that achieving Russia’s goals are going to be more difficult than presumed going in. Russia will adapt.
Where will Kiev find 1 million new troops for the 2023 campaign ?
NATO press hangs will be working overtime in NATO countries. They‘ll round up all Ukrainian menfolk working in those countries. 2/3‘s of working age Ukrainians left the country after the 2014 color revolution. They‘ll be press Ganges into the Kiev military .
. . . . and look what happened to them.
It may be as simple as the CIA got to Ritter and threatened him or his family unless he writes what they tell him to write. The fact that he has a conviction on his record makes it very easy for them to charge him with something and send him back to prison. I would not put it past them.
My understanding is that the two Donbass militaries have been doing the bulk of the fighting in the Donbass, and that it is a mistake to continue to inflate Russian forces with LNDR and DPR forces.
The military defenders of the republics surely would not have retreated to Russia.
Ritter and some other commentators seem to think that Russia will run into serious trouble due to inactivity in all of Ukraine and concentrating on the East.Its as if they think NATO ill just give up if Russia over extends itself to the West. That really is not going to happen.
If “Ritters Great Army Of The West” was going to be formed it would not stop its formation merely if denied access to Western Ukraine. For example it would form in Poland.As they do already.No matter where Russia takes, NATO will organise forces against it and as close by as they can possibly get. So, it can be argued that it would be easier to take out this second army nearer to East Ukraine and Russia.
Also,the money spent by NATO is less important as it seems.The US has to spend far more than Russia on exactly the same item.Hence,Russia gets more for what it spends.Nevermind the corruption all the way down the line! Forty Billion dollars spent really is no where near forty billion dollars of weapons
Hi,
It is all very interesting. But, there is a central point I expected to see in the report that I got nothing about it.
The U$ 40 bi in arms need a flow to be contructed.
For the moment, all the report that I got says that the stock of weapons has being depleted, around the main countries.
So, when we add a new fund of U$ 40 bi we, probably, will need to produce them.
Adding to that, we can say that we’re living in a moment with a lack of chip availabilit.
So my question is: whats the magic trick will be used to turn the U$ 40 bi into weapons to be send to Ukraine?
Are they planning to delivery the weapons before 2025? Or will they give the money directly to the Ukranian soldiers to be used in the battle fields?
I think all this process needs to be clarified, before we assume the weapons will be used!
“For comments, I remind you, that this is not a personality contest. As Johnson says – it is a substantive matter. So commentators, please be reasonable and kind, and don’t tell us who you like most.”
The first rule of analysis is “consider the source.” If I hear you correctly, you’re asking us not to do that, but how can you discuss the substance of a person’s argument without reference to their motivation or personal history?
Motives and personalities aside, the larger question is: does what Ritter, Martyanov or Johnson say have any effect on the outcome? As Martyanov pointed out, only the Russian MoD knows what the plan is. The rest is just speculation.
Usually when someone or some organisation does a 180 it means they’ve been “got to” (eg. threatened, bribed, etc.). Seen it happen loads of times during the WEF’s Scamvirus debacle. Humans and fallible and weak. For me Ritter just destroyed any credibility he might have had. Just one less source of information to bother reading now.
Its nothing about been “got to” its about how much the U.S is willing to fight this war.
Ukrainians have no say in the matter, remember they were told by the puppet government all men between 16 and 60 are barred from leaving.
If the Ukrainians want to save themselves they better remove Zalenski and the puppet government quick and tell the U.S to go to hell.
The Americans don’t care about Ukrainians, just look at how much they care about their own citizens.
The U.S “elite” are fighting for their unipolar world as long as they’re on top they will run the printing presses endlessly…whose going to make them pay their debts?
Blessings to Everyone
Here’s my 2 cents worth……
I, like many commenters, don’t really see anything wrong with Mr. Ritter’s analysis.
Certainly not to the point that he is deserving of some of the invective tossed at him…..
I, along with many others, do not agree with all of his conclusions.
But he is trying to make a point, I believe, that The Empire of Lies has NOT thrown in the towel quite yet and only a Fool would think that The Great Satan doesn’t have a few more cards to play.
Maybe Mr. Ritter is just doing a little playing at being the Devil’s Advocate…presenting some worst case scenarios, if you will.
But the Suspense is awful, no?
Who’s getting interrogated in Moscow?
How and why did the cruiser sink?
Add infinitum…..
I can only echo our benevolent Moderator – let’s all take a breath, count to 10 and engage our kindness and our patience.
All will be known in due time.
With all The Gratitude I can muster as I am so very grateful to ALL here in the Vineyard.
Lauren
How do you win the war.
This podcast is totally congruent with what Ritter is trying to say, but asks the more important question, “how do you win the war”.
https://www.reddit.com/r/WayOfTheBern/comments/uw6mxn/russia_will_likely_have_no_choice_but_to_fully/
I found myself at first nodding in agreement then actually clapping. Not because I want any side to win, but because he has defined the problem so coherently and completely. How do you win.
Jim Kavanagh has an article on OEN where he says there’s no “off ramp” for either side.
The result is going to be American Nukes.
I don’t hate to be an alarmist here. I only regret that I can’t raise the alarm high enough.
when the Korean war started, the US troops taken from cushy occupation forces in Japan … performed badly, and the equipment was taken out of moth ball and did not do well either. The US was clobbered initially and was pushed back until all that was left of S Korea was a region around the capital, that’s it. Then the Inchon landing really did change the dynamic for a while, but then after the south was taken back, the US was deep in North Korea, and the Chinese warned time after time that they would come in if the US did not stop, and the US did not stop, and the Chinese poured into N Korea, and the US was pushed back again, badly, and fought hard for a long time to a draw at about the lines where the war started between N and S Korea, where a truce was declared (not peace). So the US is real real slow on the uptake, but after a bloody nose, they might get a second wind. this time it’s a proxy though NATO, and Ukraine, but the principal is that the US and their arrogant mindset often gets clobbered, but learns. Russia also learns like this too. The point is the play is not static, and future is not predictable with any confidence. – right up to Nuclear war. A decade or so ago the US abandoned the concept of Artillery as the chief agent of military advances, and went to believing in Air power was everything, But they did not count on bad judgement making their air power not able to be used, and who could see that drones and laser artillery rounds would allow
pinpoint strikes against even armor and troop concentrations, so the drones could designate the target, and artillery rounds in flight could pick up on the designated spot and hit with precision. plus not need to risk air crews even with JDAM munitions which faced MANPADS etc. Turns out the deciding factor was ECM without which the drones artillery concept would not work. – and Russia is an ACE at this. So the US/ NATO has made some bad strategic decisions that render their force plans not suitable for an adversary like Russia/DPR/LPR. I think maybe the ability of the US to get back on their feet after a bloody nose analogy is what Scott R remembers with examples like Korea, where the US did not face a 1st class modern adversary which could adapt too, and faster. Who knows what the future of warfare will being. AI, small robot tanks, unleash biological warfare agents. but ECM dominance is almost sure to be the key in the foreseeable future before AI becomes autonomous. God help us all.
>Turns out the deciding factor was ECM without which the drones artillery concept would not work. – and Russia is an ACE at this
Why we see so many Ukranian drones flying around undisturbed?
Who is bleeding who here? Seems the facts are that Russia is bleeding the West. Self sufficient in energy, food and commodities, they can take as long as required to achieve their objective which NOONE knows outside the general staff. My guess is all of Ukraine, wait till the tanks get rolling in June.
Ritter has one main focus, avoiding nukes. His entire career, his intense moral passion is AVOIDING NUCLEAR WAR. He wants Russia to win decisively and quickly. He fears Russia will be bogged down, Ukr will rearm, and THAT RISKS NUKES. Because the west is insane.
His critics don’t focus on WMD. They’re guilty of military hubris, especially Martyanov. They don’t ask the black swan what if questions. I’ll take Ritter, with a large grain of salt, bc nukes are so terrible. But listening to ALL, including decent pro Ukraine mil analysts is critical.
We must remain sane. We must avoid intellectual arrogance. We have to listen to counterfactuals.
Amarynth more than doubled the previous Sitrep’s comments number.
—————————————————————————————————
Peskov is a good spokesman. He spoke deftly again today. A story today in RT shows this. To make it simple, I use true or false questions with quotes from the story:
True or False: Peskov said allegations that Moscow was blocking the export of Ukrainian grain in the Black Sea were “nothing more than speculation.”
False! “Speculation” could be true too.
True or False: Peskov said that “all restrictive measures that were introduced against Russian exports should be cancelled”.
False! Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said that well from his position. I think Peskov would never say it like that from his position.
True or False: Peskov said the West could blame its own “cosmic cretinism.”
False. Medvedev said that.
True or False: Peskov said that the Poles send trains with weapons to Kiev and “no one prevents them from exporting grain back on the same trains.”
True!
True or False: Peskov said planting naval mines made trade and shipping “virtually impossible.”
True!
Peskov said “the sources of this problem are those who imposed sanctions, and the sanctions themselves”.
True!
Solid spokesman. Some criticize him. I don’t know why.
The story’s link: https://www.rt.com/russia/555981-food-crisis-peskov-causes/
Only problem with that is that Putin has proclaimed that no war will ever again be fought on Russian soil, i.e. the Enemy will be stopped outside of it’s borders.
I noticed Scott Ritter changing his tune about a week ago after the 40 billion became a thing. He was saying Russia would have to change its plans, because 40 billion is a good chunk of Russia annual military budget etc, etc. I did not agree, e.g., when Medhurst had him on. I pointed out how many times the USA has been successful pouring in billions to prop up puppet regimes since WWII. The only one that succeeded was perhaps Korea and that is only due to the Soviet and Chinese settling for a partition. It failed in Cuba, Vietnam, Shar era Iran, and more recently in Afghanistan etc. What’s more, those efforts failed against forces far less sophisticated than Russia. 40 billion will have an effect, but I doubt it is going to get the result the USA might hope for, e.g., a Ukie-Nazi victory over Russia, or the collapse of Russia etc.
Lira is the only one I wouldn’t listen to.
Ritter, former Marine
Johnson, former CIA
Martyanov, former Soviet naval officer
Lira, his baby’s mama lives in Ukraine (not wife) and so has he for the past couple of years. No military titles. He does have a CV that reads like an intelligence officer but asides from that… (Dartmouth, ‘worked’ in Hollywood, financial advisor, etc.)
I believe it’s correct to debate analysis but, in regards Scott Ridder, i think no one has remarked on the long time, tried and true tactic of govt infiltrators to sow discord and create animosity amoung groups. Too often we don’t seem to need their help.
53 billion dollars matches Russia’s defense spending for 1 year, so what? The US spends 1 Trillion dollars every year! And for 20 years has not been able to defeat Russia, and we have tried. Besides like many have already
stated, 53 billion after uncle sam giveaways means Ukraine will receive a buck/twenty. So it seems to me that it will take more than money to rid NATO of the Russian problem.
Fwiw, I asked Scott about these critisisms a few hours ago. I found Scott’s response to be tremendously compelling and persuasive:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid02UEZj4WuF5mSu8RajcTnigE61MoqFW3NLjB8T4p4zGEtgRDX4NvBPJ3j5UYPhHfWnl&id=100003511545399
Or Youtube:
https://youtu.be/UnZU4n9lurg
Thank you Billy Bob for doing that. We tried here at the blog to make this thing non-personal and not a popularity contest. Ha, I should have known.
So, regarding the response that you find compelling and persuasive. It may just be that those of us here that followed this thing very closely, know all of that already. And that we connect a very different value to the things that he explains as ‘game changers’.
Again not wanting to detract from your work, but I see nothing new there and stay with my own words like this: “He is projecting a condition that is not necessarily existent and presents it as fact.” In your video he backtracked a bit and said many things are of course unknowable in the batch of data available. Things have changed and will continue to change – well, duh! They’ve changed from day one. Scott sees material changes that in my view are simply irritants.
Btw, we’re getting unconfirmed reports as yet .. that those Poles were lit up last night.
NATO will not send troops to Ukraine and will not be a party to the conflict – Alliance Secretary General Stoltenberg
(OK, he spouts lies!)
And here is a game-changer from another side. Unfortunately, if you start describing things as game changers, you need to know all of them.
This next one is a NATO breaker although the report is very dry and factual.
Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu took part in a meeting of the Council of Defense Ministers of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
During the meeting participants:
☑️ discussed the military-political situation in the CSTO area of responsibility, the situation in Ukraine;
☑️ developed proposals to jointly counter challenges and threats to collective security;
☑️ considered how to improve the crisis response system following the January (in 2022) CSTO peacekeeping operation in the Republic of Kazakhstan;
☑️ approved a number of documents to develop the organisation’s military component.
Participants discussed the military-political situation in the CSTO area of responsibility, the situation in Ukraine and developed proposals to jointly counter challenges and threats to collective security.
This organization is growing. BRICS is growing – many other of the newly constructed organizations are growing. The US was laughed out of the house with Biden’s visit – the cartoons depict this visit as an icecream cart.
So I stand with what I say. I do not want to attack this man personally whatsoever, but his thinking is narrow. He has no idea what he is asking for, if he cannot see a way out without Russia conscripting. He has no idea what ‘nato standards’ will be fighting against.
Again, very grateful for your work and this criticism I hope is fair in your view. Of course if I take an hour or so, it could be more in-depth.
Thanks for your response and I appreciate your efforts to avoid making things personal or having them turn into a popularity contest.
As you can tell, I am far from a professional-level interviewer and am definitely a layperson in regards to military and geopolitical analysis.
I’ve learned what I have from this blog as well as MoA, and the other analysts you listed in the sitrep. I have the utmost respect for all you folks and literally thank god you all exist as the alternatives are mind destroying in comparison (FOX and CNN).
Ritter definitely seems genuine to me and the farthest thing away from a double agent (which of course you never claimed but others have insinuated). My perspective on this entire discussion is that it can be boiled down to a single issue which will ultimately reveal one way or another.
I think Ritter genuinely perceives that the West is escalating in a way which will necessitate at least a partial mobilization (before the end of the year) to properly respond to it. It seems this is the primary disagreement and I’m disposed to go with Scott’s best guesstimate on this issue. I hope he is wrong and a greater mobilization and escalation on behalf of Russia is not necessary in order to achieve their objectives and “win”. But fortunately, time will tell if Ritter’s analysis is misguided.
Again, I hope he is incorrect, I hope Russia is able to implement a new security arrangement in Europe and that NATO’s mission of keeping Germany down, Russia out, and the US in, fails miserably. I hope the US gives up it’s dreams of maintaining unipolar hegemony throught the rest of the 21st century and into the 22nd.
Unfortunately, I don’t believe it will be easy to persuade the US and their Western allies to accept a multipolar world. I think the West will escalate and possibly bring us to the brink of nuclear war. Before they agree to a new geostrategic global arrangement.
I do have my own issues with all of the tremendous analysts which thankfully exist as an alternative to FOX and CNN. I elaborated on these issues a few days ago on Facebook:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid038Lyf2WjhHKe6iBsunXWPZRzpasNNDAeyPjTDFNUuk5ieHiucDhb4jdCKVcJKKTRPl&id=100003511545399
“When it comes to analyzing why Europe would so eagerly sacrifice it’s tremendous economic advantage by antagonizing Russia and not increasing it’s access via Nord Stream 2 to stable, low cost, and incredibly necessary energy, we need look no further than the reality of class struggle and of oppositional class interests.
I think many contemporary analysts do not fully appreciate the importance of the class consciousness that exists as a fundamental ingredient in the development of the Western capital-class consensus. Many of the best and most insightful “alternative analysts” reject the class paradigm to their own detriment and as a result their analysis is weak regarding why Europe so eagerly aligns with the US against what otherwise appears to be their obvious economic interest.
The proper explanation for this apparent contradiction is that the European capitalists, just like the US capitalists, look with apprehension at a rapidly developing China and Russia and perceived greater economic integration with these powers to be a slippery slope which would ultimately erode the unipolar Western political, economic, and military hegemony which they have enjoyed since the end of WWII (and even more so since the end of cold war).
So, the ruling capitalist-class of Europe fully supports US imperialism. They recognize that the US-dominated empire exists to further the interests of the global capitalist class albeit with preference only occasionally given to US industries. The alternative to this arrangement (a multipolar order with improved conditions for the success of socialism) is not an improvement from the perspective of Europe’s ruling capitalist class and as a result, they eagerly and happily throw their lot in with the US and it’s strategy to maintain global supremacy. (When they fail to do so, they are policed and punished as class traitors just like Schroeder.)
Essentially the European capitalist elite are eager to sacrifice their relatively smaller individual economic interest in favor of the greater strategic class-interest. It also needs to be kept in mind though that the sacrifice burdened by Europe’s capitalist-class will be minuscule as all of the economic pain and hardship will be the sole burden of Europe’s working class. So in a way any talk of European “sacrifice” is false as the working class alone will sacrifice while the capitalist-elite will very much continue to live their best life.
It is easy to forget this Macro class-analysis But we must make every effort to to ensure our micro-analysis is seen through this proper macro lens.
It’s no accident as we get closer to crunch time and as the stakes begin to increase exponentially that we see a deliberate heating up of the culture war. The US ruling class is not going to allow the working class to sit idly by and out of boredom, start to unite around hostility to the sacrifices being asked of them. Tremendous sacrifice will be necessary to destroy Russia and China en oute to maintaining Western global domination. Nope, the ruling class will occupy our minds and turn us against each other with every trick in the book and with every weapon in their arsenal. They will set us at each other’s throats over abortion, COVID, and Racism. This will give them a free hand to engage on those fundamental issues which are most important for them and the maintainence of their own wealth, power, and privilege.”
Thanks for having this platform and tolerating the views of others. Keep up the great work!!!
Thank You for posting this!
I think all of the people on this site that have attacked Scott Ritter personally should watch the supplied youtube and then come back on here and specifically describe their disagreement with a particular thing he said.
Sorry Billy Bob but Scott actually reinforced my opinion that he is stuck in the past and cannot see past what he thinks he knows. The more I listen to him the more convinced that I am that he has an American problem. Now that may not be to your liking since you are American but frankly America is no longer the country that it was in the nineties and neither is Russia. Compare the leaders of the two countries and look at the trajectories that said countries have followed since the nineties and you will forgive me for putting my faith in Putin rather than Biden. I believe that the Russian leadership knows exactly what it is doing and what it needs to do in the future regarding the problem of NATO and its associated challenges,
I listened to Ritter’s talk, and I think a lot of people are over-reacting. He didn’t say Ukraine is winning now, or that Russian won’t win.
His big point is that Ukraine is a country that is totally mobilised for war, with billions of dollars, training, and weapons getting pumped into it. (Yes, he recognised that a lot of the money will end up in corrupt pockets and not make much difference, and many of the weapons won’t make it to the front.)
Russia, on the other hand, is not mobilised and is fighting (quite efficiently) with a limited number of troops. But they are still taking some casualties.
Ritter’s point was that, with all the aid, Ukraine may be able to draw it out long enough that Russia will need to mobilise, at least at some level, to finish them off. At least that’s how I heard him.
you are right
Some Russian official said that Russians test all their new armaments, weapon systems, intelligence gathering systems in a real combat situation. It is a training ground for their troops. Ideal, in combat against a NATO trained, equipped, commanded army. They are preparing for the confrontation with NATO.
Difficult to say what Ritter is up to. He seems as an honest analysts who has clashed with the US intelligentsia in the past. Regarding Martyanov I think he tends to ignore the Russian weak points and any criticism to the Russian strategy whatsoever. He often sounds as a gogo propagandist and a Russian bigot.
In my opinion the Russian commandment has priviledged a rerussification strategy. They are aware of the catastrophic and totally failed Ukranian policy of Lenin, Stalin and Krutchev and have now the clear intention to refurbishing the eastern Dnipr shore into Russian land. This is an historical secular landmark so little wonder they are being methodical and contained, letting the Ukranized Russians see for themselves without the need to have a monster propaganda cultural machine like the west. Concerning the rest of Ukraine, they will become little more than a NATO fascist vassal puppet as the Baltics, and will fall overtime into the Russian orbit.
We have seen that Western firms as McDonalds, Renault, Google and others were actually acting as colonizing vectors inside Russia. So much so that they could not envisage a future in the country without a subservient goverment. Russian successes in Novorussia were possible because of a correct information policy towards its own population about what was going on in Ukraine and the Donbass for 8 years. Some western-bought propagandists were left operative as a matter of giving contrast to the informational effort. Unlike good all soviet north koreanlike propaganda, the Russian have learned a lot about complexity and multifacetted narratives.
Now, the upcoming developments let us see that the empire of lies will focus on blaming Russia for the economic chaos they themselves created, while containing the Russian advance with fresh Ukranian cannon fodder. For Russia, everything will depend on its ability to keep its own population loyal keeping the pain dial relatively down.
Hopefully, the times of Russia being punched without retaliation are now over. The toxic traitor Soros sponsored NGOs constellation was successfully neutralised, as well as political western puppets and media. There will always be good to create some kind of credible controlled oposition, as the west does, but overall,this is mission accomplished.
However, on the economic front, the west has not received the coup the grace yet. The Russian economy can just not be suppressed. Other countries such as Iran, North Korea or Cuba have endured much more and have been able to consistently develop during decade long sanctions years. The empire vassals on the contrary are freefalling, with very dark expectations for the 2022 winter. This is something Russia can perfectly cope with. But they still seem to avoid decisevely hitting the empire’s neuronal power centres, aka their financial derivatives, monetary and stock market schemes. Russia and China could very well do it. They could also inform Zone B population about the gruesome corruption of western elites they are aware of. Take decisive steps in monetary coordination, patents, standards, cultural cooperation, turism, health and a plethora of initiatives they are refraining to take. So the west keeps perceiving itself to have the initiative and having the Russian and the Chinese against the ropes. And I think that there is a part of truth in that as the Russian and the Chinese seem unable to embrace a global vision to make one another attractive and enthousiastically take the leading role and steer the wheel of the 21st century humanity.
Russian forces destroy logistic centres where all that fuel and weaponry is stored before going to the front. No point of destroying every single train.
New video interview of Scott Ritter. No need for comment we can all make up our own minds.
https://youtu.be/UnZU4n9lurg
When was the last time a U.S. trained and equipped military force actually won a war?
Because Russians are there to stay.
“Hot Potato”
Enemies-of-the-peopleness has always been popular but counter-productive, except in sustaining it-wasn’t-me-it-was-my-sisterness.
Similarly framing questions in is-he/she-really-going-out-with-himness has also often been popular and productive in encouraging vectors thereby limiting strategic options.
Hot-potatoness is a derivative of Mr. Rove’s “We are an Empire” routine deflecting focus, often popular and productive in encouraging vectors thereby limiting strategic options.
Since omniscience is never an option given that change is constant, interpretations and implementations derived from interpretations are never perfect but of varying levels of utility, and hence to some degree some avoid the practices outlined above, whilst others attempt to encourage and follow practices outlined above.
To paraphrase Ms. Dionne Warwick and friends – that’s what blogs are for (but not wholly for all).
I would like to offer my 2 cents.
I think the matter regarding Ritter’s position is wrongly understood, not that I agree with him.
One has to think what is the end condition/exit strategy of Russia? A peace agreement?, total annihilation of Ukraine?, Full occupation of Ukraine? The stated objective of the Russians is the liberation of Donbass, de-Militarisation of Ukraine, and de-Nazification. What will happen if Zelenski doesl not sign a peace deal with Russia onced it has achieved all its goals? Will Russia stop at the Donbass border? (Ok … Odessa, Karkiv etc. included). Will Russia stop or will it go on? That is the question and the core argument presented by Ritter. Because if it does, then there will be military standoff on the new border. In that case the West can rearm Ukraine and build an army to fight again in maybe 2 years time. The West is prepared to do so and Ritter argues that the West has the financial means to do so. He is wrong (or so I believe)
However, does the West have the financial means. This is another question. I do not think so. $40 billion does not build you an army. It might pay for some weapons and salaries, etc. The budget of Russia ($50 Billion) is not for weapons, but for operational expenses. So is the $700 Billion America spends on its Army. Purchases of weapons are something else and budgeted separately. Ok some money is used for purchases…..
Compare the bang for its buck the Russian get against that of America. So for the same money Russia can buy 3 Jet Fighters for the one America buys. You have to think in these terms as well. 200 tanks is not going to be enough. You need at least a 1000. And then the logistics and other operational problems.
Then the West’s Economy is in tatters, which is alleviated by the Sanctions. Do they even have the money for this? I mean America spend more than a Trillion dollars in Afghanistan?
The problem with energy, sanctions against oil and gas exports, Fertilizers, grain supplies, etc. These are all non starters and have devastating impact on the Western Economies. We will se how Europe will survive.
Then the is the available manpower in Ukraine. sorry… but most have left or are in the East. Where are you going to get 1 million fighting age (young) men.
The point here is… Ritter thinks that there will not be a “truce” but a military standoff. The West will then be able to re-arm Ukraine and win. Unfortunately he is wrong, since the situation is a lot more complex and dynamic. Who says the Dollar will even be a currency in the next 2 years or the World will buy the American Debt?
If ZOG is indeed training a military, I bet that it will be mostly mercenaries from far and wide
User, that makes a lot of sense. Thank you.
I don’t see Ritter as having done a 180. He says that Russia has met all of its objectives in Donbass, Crimea, Kherson etc.
What has become evident over the last 90 days is that
a) NATO has come out of the closet with respect to its proxy war against Russia (military, political, financial, economic), a war that has been decades in the planning.
b) A large part of Ukrainians have drunk the NATO koolaid and don’t realize they’re being used as cannon fodder.
Whether or not Russia “miscalculated” that is a moot point.
As I see it from Russia’s point of view, it had to intervene in Donbass and it was facing an existential threat anyway from NATO.
How NATO would respond can only be gamed so far and NATO has responded by doing everything short of overtly sending troops into Ukraine.
This blog is of course focused on Russia but if you look at the bigger context of NATO, deep cracks are emerging within every NATO country relating to the economy and other domestic issues. All of that falls outside the purview of technical military analysis but nonetheless it will have an impact on the Ukraine situation.
NATO cannot pull a Libya / Iraq on Ukraine without shooting itself in the foot.
I got bored with this discussion. Much of it is a two-level conversation, and Scott’s critics don’t really make contact with his argument.
I understand Scott’s message as: Russia ought to respect Kiev’s growing POTENTIAL to wage war — meaning the various kinds of Nato resources being made available — and avoid discounting whether Kiev can actualize that potential on the battlefield.
I understand his critics as saying: despite the abundance of Nato resources and support, Kiev is incapable of using them with effect on the battlefield.
Both points of view are valid, but the critics seem to be talking past Scott.
An admiral leads his fleet into battle. A lieutenant comes up and says, “Sir, we detect an enemy sub in the area, but not to worry, because the enemy’s crews are not trained well.” Both assertions are true, nonetheless the commander must respect the potential threat even though the sub’s crew can’t shoot straight. Same with Ukraine. Nato is now assembling a Ukrainian counter-force that has the potential for complicating and prolonging the war, and for making a negotiated settlement more remote. This should not be controversial.
What’s also not controversial is the point of view of Scott’s critics, who hold that, in any case, the Ukrainian army will not be able to use Western-allocated resources to its advantage.
Both views have merit, but the rule of thumb is: it is more prudent to be respectful of the enemy’s potential power, even if he can’t use it effectively.
And speaking of effectively, Scott’s critics themselves would have been more effective if, in their commentaries, they had at first acknowledged the validity of his updated analysis, adding their own modifications and dissent, rather than to unburden themselves by exaggerating their presumed differences with him.
Not only is there a war in Ukraine, there’s also a war of the egos.
“Scott’s critics themselves would have been more effective if, in their commentaries, they had at first acknowledged the validity of his updated analysis,”
Before making public declarations, some would enter into dialogue with Mr. Ritter to establish bases including but not restricted to:
The datastreams upon which Mr. Ritter based his interpretations.
The validation techniques he used to determine the validity of the datastreams upon which Mr. Ritter based his interpretations.
The evaluation techniques Mr. Ritter used to interpret the interactions, priororities and significances of all components of the datastreams upon which Mr. Ritter based his interpretations
whilst some of Mr. Ritter’s interlocutors may not have the facilities to collect and consequently interpret the whole datastream produced by Mr. Ritter, which in itself is likely an interesting datastream to analyse and interpret – some with facility not wholly conflating analysis and interpretation.
“Not only is there a war in Ukraine, there’s also a war of the egos.” …… and a war of facilities.
In illustration of:
“Before making public declarations, some would enter into dialogue with Mr. Ritter to establish bases including but not restricted to:”
As illustrated:
https://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/10-1126_science-aat7664.pdf
A component and facilitator of “peer review” which was precluded by lack of peers as a function of facility, which sustains encouraged ignorance.
Amarynth, you have done a good and efficient job explaining this issue.
Felicitaciones!
Cheers from an Argentinian in France.
I have to disagree that Mr. Ritters concern is contrived and unfounded. This entire debacle was forced upon Russia when Obama put the missles in Poland and Romania. Russia had no choice but to give the Deep State exactly what they wanted, a war on Russias boundries. And this goes to show their abilities. They got what they want. I believe that the fact that this is all in context with the USs plan to foment war and unrest to their advantage is not taken into consideration enough The conversation here and in the other pro Russian forums has become a bit of an echo chamber. I can only hope that these eventualities were discussed and are taken into consideration by the Opposition.
I’m worried that they will send actual NATO troops, but pretend it is the ukrainian army. This talk is the preceding information campain
Well Russia can pretend they are Ukrainian and blow them to bits, can’t put Humpty, Bumpy, and Stumpy back together again. Russia will blow them out of their uniforms before they are half dressed. If they really did whack Polish soldiers, aka The Dumbass Brigade, aka we’re pretending to be Orcs, at a rail station not far from the front then it doesn’t matter what NATO dress up as, dead, is dead.
Cheers M
The real issue at hand is the collective of people who are hell bent in pursuing their aim (wealth by any means possible including corruption of the culture, religious dominance, theft, war and slavery.) without any regard for anyone else, which is ignorant, selfish and evil. I think the majority of the world wants peace and the ability to pursue the best lives they can manage, take care of their families and follow their religion whatever it may be and whatever political system they embrace. This is same desire of all people the world over no matter what country. Yes, there are those who are too asleep, still, to understand how much of their lives is untrue – the lies we are told and sold, and the lies we tell ourselves. It seems to me that the war should be against those who wage war and everyone should come together for that end and forget borders, ethnicities and religious differences. The situation is complex, but simple at the same time. It’s amazing that these so called “leaders” have stolen so much that the world is almost bankrupt to the point of not have enough resources to even wage a war in the first place. All this talk by those who have stolen America about war with Russia or war with China is insanity. I want America back and I want decent political leaders again who care about the country, it’s people and the world, but I’m at a loss about how to achieve this with crooked and stolen elections and a “political class” who only wants more and more wealth at everyone’s expense, except to let the prevalent cycle play out and that looks pretty ugly at this point.
guess ,ppl havent noticed that nation ‘404’ after a bloody nose by ‘evil’ putin,has transformed into the ‘NEW POLAND’!,…it did not happen by choice but was FORCED to do so…,but after losing most ‘able’ fighting men it has become femanised..properbly.,a gunshot wedding,…may the couple live long.
Scott Ritter reacts indirectly to this thread through someone who asks him questions after reading this Sitrep (link). I don’t think that he was “pressured” after watching him here. I think it’s just poor analysis on his part. I believe U.S. “intelligence” officers are doing great harm after they retire and then come out into the open (to come out afterward, some idea that is)! Imagine if Russians (at govt. level) think that he is a poor analyst and imagine if they think that he is actually the “good” one among all the bad ones, but bad too. They may think that, indeed. It should then be assumed that they think so (it looks quite certain). And how does that help the “security” of the United States? Aren’t billions spent to project strength? What if then many retired Generals, and not just retired ones, appear on TV saying that in their analysis Ukraine wins and Russia loses (and loses in a ridiculous way too)? Would it help the security of the United States for the Russians to seriously conclude that those Generals know less than you or me? Could this projected image to the Russians – the “adversaries” – cancel in such a simple manner many billions spent on projecting strength? The quality of Generals and army is the biggest part of military strength, or is it not anymore? If their public appearance just might make the “adversaries” come to such drastic conclusions, that’s bad enough if you are really spending hundreds of billions to achieve more “strength.” A General must be perceived as having great military knowledge (retired or not). An intelligence officer must command respect when he speaks (retired or not). So, it’s too risky to subject “security” and reputation like that. A world with Generals and intelligence people on TV is a phantasy world that somebody imagined. Scott Ritter says that he doesn’t have access to info. anymore because he is retired. I think the “adversary” only needs to know what he is like, what his general level of knowledge is – to know everything else about him and his organization and his school. (In judging a soccer player, also a few minutes of watching him is enough – you know by then. You watch a pass from Maradona and you notice that the ball travels through the air in a different way so that you know it came from him just from seeing it in the air, and that’s it – you know then. And you know the poor player in an instant too.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnZU4n9lurg
“An intelligence officer must command respect when he speaks (retired or not).”
In some social relations within which the seeking of attribution is not encouraged in intelligence officers, an intelligence officer commands respect when he/she doesn’t speak, and is deemed to be an opportunity when he/she does.
“why this reach for a peace plan now?”
That’s pretty obvious now. Selenski has written the Ukraine to Poland by giving Polish people the same rights in Ukraine as Ukris. This is Ukraine’s EU and NATO entry through the back door as soon as Poland claims Ukraine (back). If this happens it may escalate to a 3rd world war as guessed the US and some Jewish wish for.
Deeply disappointed with the level of comments for this one Sitrep. There’s almost 500 comments in a little over 24 hours to what looks to me like a non-issue. Perhaps taking a step back will give some perspective.
US/EU propaganda machine would like nothing better than to instigate a circular firing squad on this site by making this about the person (Scott Ritter) and not the merits of [his] analysis. Looks to me like the majority of everyone here is subjecting Scott Ritter to a struggle session – and a few seem very eager to make it known that they are on the right side of it. I’d ask: why?
Because of the combined intellectual depth of theSaker blog, I thought that it was the most resistant of all blogs to a build-up-then-tear-down attack from outside influence (professional ‘nudging’) i.e. no one would fall for it. Has no one ever riled an ant hill and then watch the ants attack each other? All it took to expose the apparent brittleness was for one analyst to post a dissenting view to the group consensus? And not even a direct article to theSaker blog itself! Supports the idea that people [and thus commenters] are the same no matter where you go. I hope commenters restrain their impulse to go along with group-think or to create ‘cliques’. This episode should have been an easy “Pass”. Instead, it’s a ‘F’ ( Fail ).
By the way, after reading both of Scott Ritter’s articles. I see no controversy. He makes some valid points. Time and Russia’s response to the escalations will bear out which analysis is closer to reality, but it’s foolish to dismiss out of hand the possibility of his conclusions. If anything, I believe even VVP was just as
surprised as everyone else at how determined the US/NATO is to give Russia a ‘bloody nose’ and much worse. And especially of how willing the EU was in disgracing itself and it’s interests. Perhaps a better way is to consider the worst (per Scott Ritter), take preventative measures and to not continue leaving things up to the national competence, rationality, self-preservation instincts of US/EU/NATO?
@North East
I agree with you regarding the level of some of the comments in this thread . I am with Russia and China, and I do wish for Russian victory in this conflict. Cautiously optimistic of Russian military victory and achieving her political objectives as well. No idea and not willing to speculate any ‘personal’ reasons why Scott Ritter is nowadays less optimistic of Russia’s strategic/political victory in this conflict.
Being a non military person myself and obviously less erudite on such matters, it is difficult for me to critique on Scott’s points /forecasts with regards to the military situation in Ukraine . Overall, I don’t agree with Scott’s current views but I agree with you that he has some valid points, at least he has a respect for the ‘enemy’ (USA/EU/NATO/”Deep State”), which is a healthy attitude to have, regardless of our emotional distaste of the “enemy”.
Scott’s valid points would be:-
1. Don’t underestimate the enemy. USA is after all, still the sole global hegemon, and is no pushover, especially when their elites think this fight is existential for their continued global supremacy. Too many pro Russia sites(eg Mercouris, the Duran) lambast the ‘stupidity’ and ‘hysteria’ and ‘detachment from reality’ of these ruling elites in the collective West – and whilst these may be true, never underestimate the cruelty and ruthlessness of such ‘hysterical and ideological elites’. Even ‘stupid’ and ‘crazy’ people can be brilliant, cunning and deceptive from time to time – and in this conflict, we see them constantly scheming. In fact, it is harder to war or have conflict with such elites in control of the most powerful country on earth : one can plan to counteract and guess the moves of realistic and rational ruling elites , not so well if they are irrational, ideological and emotional ones. I am not sure how much miscalculation Putin had with regards to his understanding of those in power in Washington and Brussels. I think he didn’t expect an EU that is even more hysterical than Washington. In short the enemy may act beyond reason or rationality -and that is very dangerous if the Russian leadership continue to treat them as level-headed mature adults.
2. This conflict should be seen as a proxy war between USA/ EU/NATO/ collective “West” and ‘allies’ Vs Russia/China (rather than Russia alone, ultimately China is also targeted for subjugation) . I venture to go beyond Scott’s view of this conflict: it is also Unipolarity Vs Multipolarity. Ideological : totalitarian and homogeneous idealistic global utopia of wokeism , social liberalism , exploitative amoral capitalism and gender confusion Vs global diversity of ideals and societies. Azov Nazis and the like are tolerated for now to achieve the final utopia after which they will be cast away. Just useful cannon fodder. It is an SMO in name only, it is a de facto World War that is so far ‘contained’ within Ukraine by design(initially by both USA/EU and Russia, currently the USA/EU seem to want to escalate the conflict ). The war is ‘total’ – ideological, economic, financial, military. As per my point #1, we can see the ‘cunning’ of the so-called ‘stupid’, ‘hysterical elites’ in Washington and EU – no American soldier is dying in this conflict but Slavs are killing Slavs in the military aspect of the war. Propaganda is working so far for most populations in the West -most people in the West and even here in my country Malaysia, especially English speaking + well educated, think Russia is the evil invader, should be defeated by the victim Ukraine, USA and EU are morally justified to aid Ukraine and Ukraine is ‘winning’ the war. It is valid and fair for Scott to think that Putin(and I will include Xi) should view this as a true proxy war (I say it is actually s World War), stopping short of a global hot war for now, and not a limited SMO. If Putin thinks he can achieve his political objectives via a limited SMO, that he thinks he can have rational dialogue with those in Washington and Brussels, then he will be defeated, and go the path of Milosevic and others who have lost to the Empire. He should think of them as enemies to be completely defeated. Denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine is not possible without regime change in Washington and Brussels , regime change in Kiev only won’t do. And regime change will not happen in USA and Europe without a severe economic crisis in the collective West, jolting complacency in their populations to the misrule of their elites. Otherwise, it will ultimately lead to ww3 because defeat on either side would be existential in nature. I think when Scott looks at the reality of a Russian SMO that is limited and too slow according to his ‘time table’, he concluded that the Russian leadership underestimated the will of the collective West to crush Russia, and that perhaps Putin and Co is overconfident or misread the intent of the collective West.
However, my critique of Scott’s take would be:
1. The assumption that the Russian leadership is incapable of seeing this as an existential proxy war and that they are not doing much/have no plans to deal with the proxy war. Putin is no fool. I am sure, if he did not see it earlier, he is seeing it now. Self preservation is an important survival instinct and Putin and Co should know what a Russian defeat means for them. Seeing Russia attempting to limit the military engagement within Ukraine is not synonymous with a Russia complacent with the status quo. War is deception. Unless Scott can read Putin’s mind or has the ‘Russian military playbook’ in his possession , he cannot make this assumption at face value. Interestingly, I think USA/NATO is trying to escalate the military conflict, constantly provoking Moscow whereas Moscow shows considerable restrain. I think there are some things we don’t know. Perhaps Washington thinks a short hot war would benefit them rather than a prolonged war? Maybe Washington’s stated intention of a protracted war is the reverse of their true intentions? We just don’t know.
2. USD 40 billion ‘military aid’ to Ukraine is a concern and should be addressed by Russia but to make a claim that it is definitely a ‘gamechanger’ is stretching it too far -as many have pointed out, we don’t know how much is actually translated into functional weaponry. The announcement of USD 40 billion worth of weapons supply has the optics for morale boosting to cheer the Ukrainian military to continue resisting the Russian army. I am not saying it is definitely not a gamechanger, I am saying we don’t know enough to say with great deal of confidence if this will or will not be a gamechanger.
3. Scott sees mostly from a military angle but this war is actually more of an economic/financial one. His assumption is that Russia has no plans that may bring enormous economic difficulties to Washington and EU leading to a disastrous prospect for Western elites of a prolonged conflict in Ukraine. I don’t think Scott has considered what China would do to counter American hegemony. Although the Chinese seem ‘passive’, they know they are next if Moscow falls. Chinese ruling elites do not act rashly and everything is well planned and calculated to be acted upon at the correct timing/opportunity. I am sure Beijing has something in store for Washington and Brussels, when the time is right. It is in Beijing’s interest to support Moscow economically, and win this conflict with the USA, hopefully without a hot World War. Being an ethnic Chinese myself, we like to win wars without firing a bullet. Preferably a harsh economic pain inflicted on Washington to such a degree that capitulation but an escape route to save face and accept loss of hegemony rather than a hot war. The ‘total’economic warfare by Washington and EU on Russia exposes Washington’s weaknesses on the financial/economic front and surely will be manipulated upon by both Moscow and Beijing to inflict injuries to Washington’s financial hegemony. The Chinese are a patient lot and they always plan and wait for the correct timing to inflict maximal pain.
In summary, Scott is too narrow on his perspective of this conflict, considering much of the military aspect but not the geopolitical, economic, financial and diplomatic fights behind the scenes. However, he also brought up at least those 2 valid points.
Finally, I think many of us who support Russia are too emotionally invested in wishing for a Russian victory that we may be deluded by a ‘Russia is winning and winning easily’ narrative and any contrary views must be ‘wrong’. Understandable when Western MSM narrative/propaganda of Russia is losing big is very overwhelmingly widespread and loud. Psychologically we want to hear good news of Russia winning every conflict and not the bad news of setbacks or even major losses. However, the correct attitude is to be rational, try to suppress emotions when examining data and have a realistic /pragmatic thinking. And healthy respect of the enemy, never underestimate the enemy.
“Looks to me like the majority of everyone here is subjecting Scott Ritter to a struggle session – and a few seem very eager to make it known that they are on the right side of it. I’d ask: why?”
His turnabout makes no sense. Now Ukraine beats Russia! When I beat Tyson Fury, maybe.
Some silly reasons are given that are about to be proven to have been silly (no fair blaming “administration issues” later): 1) More money! Is any country like Ukraine (known for corruption issues) ready to accept 50 billion dollars in a matter of months and make it work for a victory before the end of this Summer against Russia? Then will he admit that he was wrong again or will he blame something unexpected now (by him) like “administration issues of corruption or inefficiency”? 2) Good advice and info.! (What I need to face Tyson Fury.), 3) Good training! At first, he didn’t know that money and advice and training were going to be offered to Ukraine. How come it was no surprise here? You are disappointed only “with the level of comments for this one Sitrep.”
“Time and Russia’s response to the escalations will bear out which analysis is closer to reality”
War is sad, but that’s right. One will be right, the other one will be wrong or right-wrong, maybe right-wrong-right.
Ukraine is being Pakistan-ized. You see the fingerprints of Her Majesty’s intelligence service. No one does “divide and rule” better and you need only look at their tactics in Palestine and India to understand the model that manages to stoke irreconcilable hatreds amongst who have managed to find a way to resolve their differences peacefully for centuries (if not millenia), turning ethnic brothers implacably against each other. This is why the perception that this conflict is un-winnable – in fact, the longer it goes on, un-endable (which is practically saying the same thing) is accurate. Russia might successfully establish Novorussiya, but it will always face the specter of instability from Banderistan in perpetuity.
Unless and until EU vassals start peeling away from their American sovereign and the internal conflicts brewing within America begin to take their toll, there will be no resolution to this conflict. The dying Empire will go any lengths to assert its dominance, even if it means stoking nuclear destruction. Russia has to realize it is in it for the long haul. And so is the rest of the world.
China needs to buy the EU leaders off if we are to be saved. Since they’re always for sale, it seems our only real hope.
Even though unwinnable as noted above, this action was still necessary. Russia had no choice. Waiting 8 years already worsened the radicalization of Kiev’s body politic and waiting further would only worsen the outcomes.
I’m not a military expert but Scott’s 180 seems to me to be in Internet speak-
1. Send heavy weapons to Ukraine.
2. ????
3. Russia fails in it’s objectives.
There is nothing in step 2, no explanation of how the weapons are deployed to actually stop the Russians doing whatever they like on the battlefield.
Let’s play expert analyst. First came the two Russian proposals. (This is the way.)
Both came unexpectedly – great surprises. Were they able to react masterly? Is there anyone who says the reaction was a masterful one? No. We’re onto something. Was the poor reaction reduced to one line, “The Russians will invade!”? Yes. Was it a shocking invasion? Yes. Was the situation now ripe for “emotional” mistakes? Sure. Did actually the strong emotions caused by the surprises and the shocking invasion produce an emotional reaction(s) that culminated in the assessment that Ukraine can defeat Russia in a war? You have to be unbiased in answering this question. Emotionalism and expert analysis don’t go together. You must be cold in answering this question. After all, solutions are to be found someday. All the sequels of emotionalism must end in order for expert analysis to retake its rightful place. (Is anybody getting paid for this to happen…?)
Say you determine that the notion that Ukraine defeats Russia in a war comes from an emotional reaction(s). Now what? Win what you can win, minimize any losses? Yes. Good thing that Russia is looking for a negotiated result! They say nobody listens.
A possible simple solution maybe: You tell Ukraine that no more money will be sent. It has to accept that Crimea and the Donbass are Russian – to forget them or to fight all by itself or with someone else’s help. You tell Russia to just take Donbass and Crimea, but you’re ready to grant a possible right to one or two more areas close to the Donbass. You tell Russia that you will go back to the 1997 NATO positions (you want to bring it in). Life being how it is, you may tell it that it has been “brutish” because you wanted to negotiate when they suddenly invaded (!). You’re minimizing losses, avoiding possible catastrophes. You’re a statesman. You tell Ukraine that it can join the EU within a year or two. You may tell Russia that you always liked the clause in their proposal to NATO that said the two sides will not be adversaries anymore. That’s what you also want. Russia can go East or come West, or both. Maybe a new world order starts (much better and safer).
I have just heard Scott Ritter’s about turn. This to me is a typical American management technique, used against myself during aims of industry industrial tribunal.
Trying to get the opposition to try and second guess themselves. To make changes, to create a weakness that one side can take advantage or exploite and develope.
Scott Ritter, may have seen a weakness of the Russian stance, but he hasn’t explained that weakness!
Russia will succeed in its limited aggression in Ukraine. The leadership of Ukraine as it stands today, will be judged by the people and judgement will be passed, by the people, and no money, nor will American mansions and Israeli swimming pools will be an alternative to the grave that holds the leadership and there bodies.
Short insight into Col Ritter’s dilemma. Remember his ‘other war’? Scott Ritter was the victim of a sting operation a few years ago, that was apparently successful. Though we cannot know all of the details, I do know this – having reported on US foreign policy and shenanigans for over 12 years in a blog called “The Parallel Universe’ (Which was removed from the internet last year) – my home has been routinely subjected to ‘invasions’ – my equipment monitored. With Ritter, they found something. It led to his arrest, and while he was discharged, apparently they still had a ‘card’ to play and just played it. Ritter didn’t change his mind about Russia/Ukraine – he’s clearly subject to control now, in what he’s allowed to report, with the threat of something hanging over his head. A head’s up, I should say, to anyone who skylines themself with truth reporting. The higher your exposure, the more important that your nails are clean.