By Nightvision for the Saker Blog
Let’s start off with some significant Mariupol updates. The Primorski / port area was further captured, some say dividing it in half, and guys on the ground are now saying the entire section may fall by tomorrow or at latest by the end of this weekend.
That would leave only the Azovstal factory because the other big news was that the Illych factory has completely fallen to our forces as well, and this was the only other pocket of UAF left. There is a lot of footage from the Illych capture.
Footage from inside the factory https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1515350944510267392
Drone footage of DPR/RF forces storming it and capturing the last few UAF Marines https://twitter.com/MapsUkraine/status/1515318107832791053 (alt link: https://www.bitchute.com/video/aY4HS5Bpawm5/)
A lot of UAF equipment recovered there, hidden in the factory, including many American hummers https://www.bitchute.com/video/G1HMTwSk6OH5/
Full interview of one of the POWs with subtitles: https://www.bitchute.com/video/m4P2ylBqhv3W/
Another British merc captured as well: https://www.bitchute.com/video/Erio4G6vzPJS/
He is this guy, Shaun Pinner https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569039/Ex-British-soldier-Shaun-Pinner-says-chaos-line-Ukraine-Russian-conflict.html
This merc also served with Cossackgundi in the YPG for years in Syria, and it’s been said he’s even served in Bosnia in the 90’s and is likely part of British Intel forces.
And for those that haven’t seen the previous British merc, Cossackgundi, here are a few outtakes from his interrogations: https://www.bitchute.com/video/z6hfHjgWGhaX/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/sAGrE1IhNtPj/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/3jHSMwehXGR4/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/zMIJYtgBAk4Q/
And a Russian news report states the following: https://iz.ru/1321114/2022-04-15/v-sf-zaiavili-o-nalichii-soldat-stran-nato-sredi-plennykh-na-ukraine
“Among those captured in Ukraine there are military personnel from the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO). This was announced on Friday, April 15, by Andrei Klimov, deputy head of the commission of the United Russia party for international cooperation…
“We already have prisoners among the military personnel of NATO countries, we will show all this when we conduct trials, and the whole world will see what really happened,” he said during a briefing with the media. The senator also said that there are mercenaries in Ukraine from Asia, Africa, Great Britain, the USA and other states. He recalled that mercenaries are not military personnel and they are not subject to international law.”
So it seems according to this they do intend to put them on trial.
This is how the map is looking now. That small sliver of Primorski section in the SW by the port, and then just the massive Azovstal factory complex.
And as many of you know, the factory was reportedly already bombed by Russian long range heavy bombers, Tu-22m’s in what is reportedly the first usage of the bombers in the conflict so far. Footage:
https://ok.ru/video/3397653039744
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1515285368073068547 (alt link)
There’s still no word on the general strategy, as we’ve all seen rumors Russia would flood the factory, or etc. We don’t know if this bombing run is a one-off, and only to bomb certain sections/positions, or a general strategy they will employ to level the entire complex (doubtful). Personally I don’t see the point of bombing now, unless with bunker busters, as we know Azov troops are secured deep in the basement, but there may have been some strategic positions to hit for now, to soften them up before the next phase of the Azovstal assault. For instance, Azov forces likely mined the entire area, and perhaps this is an attempt to first demine and clear all booby traps via large bombing run to prepare the area for ground assault.
In the time of writing this, the Russian MOD apparently reported that the full urban area of Mariupol has been captured, and the map would now look like this:
However, I leave the previous up because once in a while the Russian MOD has been known to jump the gun and I personally haven’t seen the on-the-ground indication yet that Primorski has fully been cleared, although there were several indications it was very close, so maybe it is true. If that’s the case, then there is literally nothing left apart from the Azovstal factory complex.
Either way, we get closer and closer to the end where Mariupol comes home. And on that note there’s some interesting updates. Firstly, apparently anchors at the Crimea24 news station in Crimea are already referring to Kherson as the ‘Kherson People’s Republic’, ‘that is, an entirely separate and seceded political entity from the Ukrainian Central Government.’
And not far away, the Energodar city sign changed from a Ukrainian to Russian flag:
https://twitter.com/myrevolutionrus/status/1515260755687391237
As for news about Phase 2, here are some assorted updates:
There continue to be reports from both sides that a largescale Russian Phase 2 offensive is days away. One source in Donbass even said this: “The head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration believes that the Russian troops do not start the offensive because of bad weather.”
Meanwhile a regional administrator in Barvinkove and separately, the head of Donetsk regional military administrations, urged evacuations as ‘Russia is set to launch a large-scale military operation in a few days.’
My view has been that it won’t come until Mariupol is done, but with that said, they may begin it anyway because some reports indicate forces have already been disengaged from Mariupol and sent both north and towards Kherson because so few UAF remain in Mariupol, they don’t need a large force anymore. Wargonzo / Pegov reports that the famous Somali battalion of DPR will be re-deployed to Avdiivka outside of Donetsk where a large offensive is planned to break through the densest of enemy lines, and some of them have already been redeployed there.
In short, various ‘chirps’ from both sides continue to indicate Russia is almost ready with the preparations for Phase 2, we just have to wait and see if they’re waiting for the ‘symbolic’ fall of Mariupol to begin, or whether they’ll begin without it. We know the Pentagon said last week that the offensive would start “within a week”.
As some others have posted this already, unconfirmed but it matches the general gist I’m hearing everywhere else:
“The Pentagon instructed the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to withdraw all the remaining artillery to the cities on the eastern front – Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, where they can fire behind civilians. Restraining the offensive of the Russian troops is prescribed by small mobile groups armed with mortars and anti-tank systems, moving across the steppe in civilian vehicles. There is nothing surprising in the fact that the Americans impose terrorist tactics on their pets, in which their people are taken hostage. But the fact that Ukrainian resources write about this quite openly, and treat such methods with understanding, and as the only correct one, cannot but amaze.”
There is video evidence of this now that’s emerged where UAF is mostly operating in the style of ISIS ‘technicals’ where they mount a machine gun on a pickup truck and drive around the countryside in search of fast ambush opportunities on RF rearguards, supply lines etc., but unlike ISIS they’re armed with tons of ATGMs and Manpads.
One Russian T-72B3 came home to base last night near Izyum having been reportedly struck as many as 2 or 3 times by Javelins and Nlaws, but its Kontakt-5 reactive armor had no problem shrugging them all off. Photos show Kontakt-5 damage around the turret indicating possible “top attack” (such as NLAW and Javelin) as opposed to normal RPG style weapons hitting lower broadside on the hull. Just further proof that Western weapons are performing abysmally. In fact the ONLY consistently confirmed proof I have seen, out of thousands of videos, of tank kills on Russian armor all comes from the Ukrainian Stugna-P ATGM, which is a Ukrainian/Belarussian produced weapon.
One frontline reporter several days ago said, upon breaching a UAF position they found a bunch of spent Russian/Soviet legacy RPGs laying on the ground, while next to them was several western (NLAW/Javelin) units that were completely unused. You can figure out what this implies.
But of course the U.S. continues to offload its stock of junk on Ukraine: https://www.bitchute.com/video/cW8vv4om4cJJ/
Czech sends MLRS https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1514471276437401601
While British SAS go straight to Kiev to train the Nazis directly https://www.rt.com/russia/553973-uk-commandos-train-ukrainians/
U.S. also expands its intel sharing with Ukraine, and has stated it will help Ukraine in preparing strikes onto Crimea. U.S. says it won’t overtly help Ukraine with strikes on RF territory, but it doesn’t recognize Crimea as RF territory so it considers it legal to give the UAF signal/satellite intel to strike Crimea.
https://www.rt.com/news/553853-us-intelligence-attack-crimea/
Meanwhile the Pentagram says, “The Pentagon now says Russia is in the midst of a major jamming operation attempt of Ukraine’s access to GPS signals, which if successful would have a huge impact on Ukraine’s ability to navigate the battlefield and operate advanced aerial systems such as drones.”
The article mentions Switchblade drones, and how they use GPS which is disrupted by Russian jamming. On that front, we have new reports that as of yesterday, two Switchblade drones were already used against Russian tanks in the Kharkov / Izyum area, neither of which did any damage.
“Two American Switchblade UAVs (“Flipknife”) attacked the positions of Russian tankers, but did not cause any damage. Apparently, the operators are just beginning to master the new technique.” (reported by the reliable frontline correspondent Sasha Kots)
It is confirmation the drones are now in theater. But there’s 2 varieties, the 300 and 600 series. We don’t know yet which they have. The 300 is fairly useless against vehicles.
You can see an inside look into these unparalleled Russian jamming systems which have no equal in the world: https://www.bitchute.com/video/dFe6qSXQF3IX/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/niAYpgvVlb2u/
If you read my last report with this video: https://youtu.be/_CMby_WPjk4?t=1584
You’ll know it spoke a lot about Russian ability to shutdown all communications on the front via these various EW stations like the famous Krasukha. In the bitchute videos above, the soldiers talk about how these systems shutdown all cellular communications, fry Bayraktar drones, etc., and this is exactly corroborated in the Dr. Karber presentation at West Point above, where he says all cellular and military radios go blank in a wide swath of territory.
Here’s some more info on the particular complex: https://military-wiki.com/the-power-of-russias-murmansk-bn-electronic-warfare-complex/
Also yesterday the S-400 was used for possibly the 2nd time of the conflict. The first was in the opening days, a S-400 system in Belarus destroyed a Ukrainian Mig-29 over Kiev (very long distance) which was piloted by one of Ukraine’s most legendary pilots.
The new usage was said to be against one of the helicopters that attacked the Russian Klimovo village in the Bryansk region. The helicopter apparently was shot over the village of Gorodnya in the Chernihiv region of Ukraine, about 35 km from the Russian-Ukrainian border.
One analyst writes:
“1. This means that air defense has been strengthened in the border areas. S-400 divisions “do not go alone.” At least a regiment, at least two divisions and a command post. 2 combat vehicles for each
2. The helicopter was shot down at low altitude at a distance of about 35 km from the border, read at least 50-60 km from the division. This means that the target for the division was below the radio horizon, which, on flat terrain and an antenna post deployed not on a 40V6M tower, but on a conveyor, would be about 40 km. This is possible only in the interaction of the S-400 air defense system with the A-50 AWACS aircraft or with the Su-30 fighter and the use of the 9M96E2 missile with an active homing head, which is capable of independently capturing an over-the-horizon target according to the data of the air defense system itself or the specified aircraft.”
Video of the shot down helicopter https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1515294027608104965
In that same region were huge losses for the UAF yesterday. Reported several squads to be completely destroyed while there were many prisoners. You can see photos of the prisoners on most of the popular telegram channels.
Meanwhile in the risible and deteriorating U.S. Navy, humiliation continues to mount:
https://www.rt.com/news/553992-navy-commander-fired-f35/
Here’s a good current map of the overall situation: https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1515118706682122244
And here’s how British Intel reportedly views the coming Phase 2 operation:
By the way, one last note. Some have asked about the news that ‘General Aleksandr Dvornikov’ was appointed as supreme commander of the entire operation, particularly since I previously posted a snippet that had his name in it. The truth is, there is no actual proof or confirmation whatsoever from the Russian side that he has been ‘appointed’ or ‘promoted’ in any way. Even if you search his name in cyrillic on Russian official news sites like Tass there is nothing whatsoever on it, and no such announcement from the MOD. So keep in mind all such information is only as per the “Pentagon’s” alleged secret intel, albeit on sites like wikipedia it is already listed as 100% official and confirmed that he is in fact the supreme commander.
With that said, it may very well be true. And if it is, that’s a good thing, because Dvornikov by all qualifications appears to be a very strong commander who was responsible for much of the success of Russia’s Syrian campaign. Keep in mind he is officially the commander of the entire Russian Southern Military District, with its famed 58th Army, etc., and he continues to be listed as the commander of this district. The Southern is arguably Russia’s most experienced command post due to its involvement in some of the hottest Russian frontlines of the past years, such as the 2008 Georgian war which was primarily prosecuted by the 58th Army of the Southern, stationed in Vladikavkaz. To the 2014 Crimean crisis as well, which was primarily handled by this district. Not to mention it appears the Southern District has possibly the highest contract servicemen percentage of any of the districts, which wikipedia lists at 98% as of 2016.
Though the ‘Western’ district is the ‘prestige’ one, as it guards Russia’s most vital western European flank, and was previously headed by Gerasimov himself, and is probably outfitted with the highest percentage of technologically advanced units (such as the 4th Guards Tank army which is mostly comprised of modernized T-80U’s as opposed to the T-72’s of many other districts), the Southern is the one that has seen the most action in recent years, and has acted as the ‘shock troops’ for various Russian crises.
So the fact that Dvornikov, who was given the highest honors, “Hero of the Russian Federation” medal for his work in Syria, was then promoted to the head of the Southern District after his Syrian service, means the utter trust Russian leadership has in him. So if it is true he is internally now running the entire SMO, then that can only be viewed as a positive. But let it simply be stated that this is completely unconfirmed, and may never be confirmed officially by the Russian side.
And some final assorted things:
DPR troops humanely feed their POWs (quite a contrast to how Russian POWs are treated): https://www.bitchute.com/video/GyMLSCgz3rhn/
Russian White Swans of death spotted in the skies of Russia not far from Ukr border, but reportedly this is practice for the upcoming parade (or is it?)
https://www.bitchute.com/video/kl6OSbWtGSzM/
An interesting look at the logistical side, Russian mobile kitchens and laundromats – how daily troop life functions: https://www.bitchute.com/video/lbyWPdJXtXy2/
Chechens put finishing touches on Mariupol districts: https://www.bitchute.com/video/zH6ZymTy6EZ7/
Russia ships mass Bm-21 Grad reinforcements: https://www.bitchute.com/video/fbCOVZvcygVl/
More reinforcements head through Kharkov: https://www.bitchute.com/video/kcnOFC8OeDvQ/
Zelensky brags behind the scenes how Macron is his “bestie” who texts him privately (is this legal?) https://www.bitchute.com/video/4OCZ4XRXfAHs/
Crew of the sunken Moskva cruiser re-enlists to continue service in Navy. So much for fake rumors they were all killed, etc: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/nnwlaOOuDM1W/
Another UAF base in Nikolayev destroyed. https://www.bitchute.com/video/LqyoUGfEwKLC/
There’ve been many huge strikes in Kiev, Kharkov, Nikolayev, etc, that have flattened a lot of bases and factories in the past 2 days since the sinking of the Moskva. In fact in the past day alone, over 300 UAF soldiers were reportedly killed in these strikes all over Ukraine.
Today Zelensky revealed for the first time that UAF losses are alleged to be only 2500-3000 total. But this is a clear lie as the Donbass alone has 3000 POWs. The Russian MOD countered with new realistic losses of the UAF today, which are in excess of 23,000+ troops. https://www.rt.com/russia/553998-russia-ukraine-casualties/
Graphic (18+) Russian Spetsnaz force once again ambushed a UAF squad near Izyum: https://www.bitchute.com/video/qoqS4oNnHmtD/
Also slightly (18+), Chechens in Mariupol show the clearing of one of the last districts: https://www.bitchute.com/video/yoEdnDP6jUUT/
Russia in Ukraine: the way to victory
Russia’s victory is necessarily the US defeat, with the demolition of the unipolar world that followed the collapse of the USSR.
What strategy is capable of shaping this victory?
It certainly begins with the complete annihilation of the current Ukrainian State.
However, the territorial occupation of Ukraine is not necessary (placing it under the political tutelage of Russia), with an Autonomous Confederation of People’s Republics being more appropriate.
How to militarily implement the strategy?
Ukraine’s armed forces are nothing more than an operational arm of NATO, under direct US command. Destroying them is fundamental, but not enough.
Nor can this be done easily and quickly, through a blitzkrieg and some kind of generalized bombing operation (shock and awe).
Across NATO borders, the US will maintain the resupply of war equipment and personnel (mercenaries and special forces) to the field of operations in Ukraine.
For this reason, Russia has already adopted the tactic of preemptive attacks on equipment depots and bases for gathering foreign troops.
On the other hand, Russia’s victory will not come about by turning Ukraine into ruins.
Rather, by a cunning inversion of the rules of engagement. If the US conceived the war in Ukraine as another Afghanistan for Russia, it is up to Russia to transform it into a new Vietnam for the US.
Although the impacts of a prolonged war will be terrible for Russia, in Europe (and therefore in the USA) it will be unbearable, as its economic and social effects tend to destabilize them politically.
In any case, with the USA’s inability to impose a historic defeat on Russia, there will be a stalemate leading the scenario to the verge of nuclear war.
This will be the moment of the US drop dow. Or the fall of us all.
Either Russia will be victorious, or there will be no victory at all.
The way to victory for Russia is simple, the complexity is the execution.
For victory Russia just need to liberate all the historical territories of Nova Russia, who are massively pro Russia and integrate them into Russian Federation as they did with Crimea.
No stupidity of neutral states, no. Integration in the Russian Federation is the only real way to victory. Moreover that people deserve to be fully Russian.
This means People Republic of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kharkov and Odessa.
Kharkov probably will fall sooner or later, specially when the cauldron in dombass is destroyed they will be totally surrounded. Odessa is a difficult pray but it is one of the most pro Russian territories, and it need to be liberated.
Moreover this will land lock the rest of Ukraine, making them an irrelevant weak place. Just one Slovakia.
Once this objetives are finished Russia should center its attention in a regime change in West Ukraine. How to achieve it? Destroy all possible communication road of West Ukraine with the West. Isolate the regime of Zelenski. Now this regime is resistant to any internal pressure because of the support of the West. Cut it from it and at some point someone will pressure them to make peace.
So the point is, once Odessa and Mariupol are liberated Russia have to really destroy every airport and every road and rail from West Ukraine to Europe. Literally all of them.
Then a regime change can be performs in West Ukraine, and this regime change will have to desnazify the country.
This is the way to victory.
In other aspects I think Russia and Belarus should merge, and end the current absurd status. Belarus will suffer obvious trials of regime change and the best option to end them is to fussion with Russia.
Also Russia will need all possible millions of people to have a alternative market for their products. 10 millions of Belarus + the millions in eastern Ukraine will be helpful. Kazajistán should follow Kyrgyzstan example and merge their Air Force with Russia. Russia need as much power as possible to resist economically and be a big market the next years.
Apart from this, I really encourage everyone in the West who support Russia to create a Telegram channel and share the atrocities of Ukrainian government with your relatives. It is difficult to convince people in a discussion but when they calmly see the proofs in video they become aware of the atrocities of Ukraine.
It is difficult to support Russia from the West but we can do our little part and undermine the propaganda of our govements that are defending Nazis and fucking our economies in the process.
I have one small channel where I share the content for Juan Sin miedo, Gonzalo Lira and other journalist. I do in my native language. You can take a look and use it as a example for your own channels. Really do, it helps. If 10000 have a channel of 50 people this is almost half million people. It Can change things. Here is the link:
https://t.me/+tRrVUDNukvgzZGJk
Mine is in Spanish becuase is my native language. Use your native language for your channels and provide explanation for your videos. Remember that most people didn’t know even where is a Ukraine at the beginning of the war
Is there an organization similar to the red cross in Russia?… if yes can someone provide website link?… Reason I ask is I want to donate cash to the people of formerly eastern Ukraine… and I know there are people here in North America that want to donate as well.
To keep it simple, how can I or anyone donate to the people and victims in former eastern Ukraine through a government of Russia approved agency?
You cannot. The US/CA government made that illegal.
Sorry
Andrei
Through the Orthodox Church Outside Russia, I believe. It will not register as non-taxable, but if under the Patriarchate of Moscow, it will at the very least go to true Orthodox Ukrainians, and not schismatics who are propped up by Rome.
Add to that the Australian and New Zealand Governments. I cannot even send “alimony” for my youngest daughter. I’m trying to send RMB to a friend’s brother in China, so he can forward it on, but the Shanghai lockdown is causing problems. Some enterprising person in a country that still has connections to both Russia and the sanctioning West, needs to set up a business, that for a small fee, say 1%, forwards on payment to Russian bank accounts.
I know of one West German who managed to send some money (euros) to some families in the Donbass via Western Union (not possible via any bank).
But an attempt to send more money has so far been stalled.
Money being collected in the USA (in local fund-raisers, which I am not participating in) seems to be headed for Ukrainian refugees outside of Ukraine. To pay for food for them.
But I don’t know how they are actually getting the money to such people, or to those who are feeding them.
My wife and I are still looking for a way to send money to Russia. If anyone has suggestions, I am happy to consider them!
Joining in on your request. Would be nice to be able to also do something for the people who’ll have to rebuild mariupol!
Western governments are evil, alas. last month the Canadian dictatorial/fascist government (pretend ‘democracy”) found ways to confiscate moneis sent to the protesting truckers. That was the lowest of the low…..
The International Orthodox Christian Charities is a worthy organization
https://iocc.org/
Buen analisis. Si se olvida que el imperio anglosajon instala el fascismo, el terrorismo y la mafia allá donde va se olvida al principal responsable de los crímenes. En Ucrania sucede lo que sucedió en España hace 80 años. El Azov de ahora fue la falange de entonces al servicio del agente británico Franco. España es una colonia anglosajona nazificada como Ucrania, refugio mundial de fascistas desde hace 80 años.
Very agree with you Yoni, the level of submission of Spain is incredible even in European low standards…
Also agree with your vision of Civil War and I add that Nazis were the also initially financed by anglosaxon elites.
It is well known how Franco received engines for national army planes from Ford.
Thanks for the link and the good advice.
The people I am surrounded with in a 50km radius refuse to hear, see and talk about anything outside MSM. People try to mention it, but the moment I say “we are the bad guys in this game” they immediately shift conversation or walk quickly away.
Its not that there are nobody but it is very few and most of them are radicals like the ones in the vaxx game, so one suspects they are “controlled opposition”. There are very few normal rational factual people.
If they know some hateful Ukrainian neonazi living here, they connect this person to be the opinion of all Ukrainians.
We have some from Chechnya and they are fine people but they hate Putin :-(. On the other side we have some very fine Syrians who openly declare they love and admire Assad.
But the proposal is good. I think some people could surfe in by accident and at least get the impression that the story has two sides.
Hi Tommy,
I had some crazy discussions with friends and family at the beginning.
I was frustrated because I very much know Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. I have been there several times, have had close relation with people there and speak some Russian.
Also I followed Dombass and Crimea conflict since 2014, time where I had a relation with a Russian girl who lived in my country.
However people refused to listen me, refused that I know more of that lands and the conflicts. They always became emotional and irrational in discussions and didn’t listen.
But when I started the channel, share facts and videos there. They started to change opinion. When they can see those videos and analysis with cold mind in their houses they started to think.
So I consider it a big mini triumph. That’s why I encourage people to do the same
Nightvision:
Thanks for the great Sitrep. A pleasure to read it.
Some of the links in this report did not link. But no problem, I just copy and search.
Thanks. Yeah, not sure why they’re not working but that’s good idea, if it doesn’t work for anyone else just copy and paste the link manually into your browser and it will work. I’ve seen it happen before and it automatically fixed later on so maybe it’ll fix itself somehow
Yes, almost all, but still got some azovstals.
Absolutely rigth! I have had any problems, but maybe I have computer-fu :D
Nigtvision ,thank you for your contribution to this site, it makes it all the more read worthy, but it is already one of my favorites, cool to think of we in the armed forces approximately at the same time, but on opposing sides. I just forgot about it all after serving as captain in an in a motinf company. Time to do something else. Which I did. I am glad that I am too old for this shit with drones and all.
I copied the links, except for the closing / and then pasted in a new browser page. Worked every time. The video the Ukie kid marine that surrendered (one of the first links provided) was especially poignant.
The all ‘green deal’ ‘climate change’ scam is over.
German greens open to shale gas in..Germany now.IF it is to ‘destroy’ the Russians anything goes.
Speaking about Germany’s ability to produce gas on its own, Habeck said that the North German Plain has vast deposits of shale gas, but it can be extracted only with the help of the hydraulic fracturing technology, also called fracking. tass
Habeck didn’t say that. I don’t have a problem calling the “Greens” stupid, but what Habeck said was the opposite of what you claim he have said: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/fracking-in-deutschland-fuer-habeck-kein-thema-17962471.html
(in German)
Whose small aircraft have been collecting the trafficked internal organs ripped from the people of Donbas by Ukrainian Zio-Nazis (Banderites)? https://themillenniumreport.com/2018/06/israel-organ-trafficking-capital-of-the-world/
“…the US-led axis-of-evil screams foul play with “human rights abuses” whenever any force (like Russia) attempts to stop the menacing Western-sponsored terrorists yet when the Nazis of Kiev are literally ripping the hearts, lungs, and kidneys out of residents in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, not a peep is heard from that axis-of-evil. Firsthand accounts from eyewitnesses reporting the rampant killing of civilians in the breakaway provinces by organ snatching mass murderers are totally blacked out or quickly dismissed by Western mainstream media. The international airport personnel in Boryspil observed many small aircraft chartered with refrigerators for organ transplant storage. ”
Anna…
>>” Nazis of Kiev are literally ripping the hearts, lungs, and kidneys out of residents”.……
Cmon Anna. That’s not how organ transplants work. And anyone posting here should have a modicum of sense to know that.
A heart (organ) isn’t a car battery…. You don’t just rip it out and shove in the next unit.
Organ transfer and organ replacement is delicate, complex surgery. Organs need to be kept viable, and there is a very short window for the viability, conditions not found on the battle field.
Please don’t post nonsense.
It will end up much more expensive than US LNG.
Doesnt matter what habeck or other green communists saying or writting.
Just check the CVs of Habeck, Baerbock or Özdimir.
These losers re now ruling politics and economics in Germanistan
Thanks again for the update!
Now, this looks like progress.
Seeing so many Grads moving in can mean only one thing:
Donbass cauldron is next on the list after the big factory.
I heard rumors that there is an underground city beneath the factory. If that is true, then the clearing of UAF troops there could be a bit harder than it looks.
Are there any videos of T-90s or Armatas on the front lines? I wonder how T-14 Armata performs on the battlefield.
There’s T-90’s but I doubt you’ll see Armata anytime soon, maybe in the rearguard for testing only. With that said I’ve seen the BMPT “Terminator” being shipped via railways for the first time, which means Russia is starting to bring out some of the more advanced units
https://youtu.be/icwxFq5zrlQ
Night vision, are you located in the war zone? The reason I ask is that you have the kind of detailed information that I would expect from someone giving firsthand information.
Terminator is, despite it’s terrifiying looks, a beautiful vehicle.
T-90s should be more than enough. I’ve seen those beasts survive multiple direct hits in Syria.
Smoke them out
Would be very interested in seeing the Armatas in action, but how many tanks do the Ukrainians have left? Especially in the Donbass.
Many thanks, Night Vision. Great report but “Russian MOD has been known to jump the gun” is almost as bad as that famous Pravda article that claimed “In its long quest for world peace Russia has always stuck to its guns” ;)
Thanks. Hey I like to pride myself on being extremely impartial for someone that’s on one side. I report things honestly even if it’s inconvenient for our side. And the Russian MOD has jumped the gun many times because it appears to have a slightly different definition/criteria for certain things. For instance when they say something is “completely” done (“completely destroyed” or “completely cleared”) often it’s used in a very loose manner meaning “the vast majority”. Like when they said the entire Ukrainian airforce was ‘completely’ obliterated yet Ukraine still had dozens of planes left, they weren’t outright lying, they simply mean that it was destroyed to such an extent that the remainder is no longer a significant military threat. So similarly when they say a district has “completely fallen”, by their criteria they could mean that there are still some scattered enemy elements but they’re no longer an organized fighting force and will be mopped up shortly.
But personally I prefer to report the district as fallen when it’s completely under control so that’s why I made a slight distinction.
One must remember that the Russian MOD speaks from the perspective of a “strategic” overview versus a tactical one. On a “strategic” basis, a few planes has no relevance compared to the thousands of planes Russia has, similarly a neighborhood with a few scattered remnants from that perspective is also no longer considered really a fighting force and can be written off as “fully done”. So it’s not that the MOD is misleading deliberately but rather that their vantage is different as they are looking and judging the battlefield with a broad, gestalt “strategic” level consideration.
Thank you for the clarification Nightvision. During WW2 in the UK there was quite a debate about what ‘eliminated’ meant exactly. As I recall some well known scientist worked on the question to advise the General Staff. That said I think the Russian MOD should work hard to establish a reputation for 100% truthfulness whenever possible.
For me, what is really important is that a city or area has been cleared of the enemy and the civilian population can start speaking openly and putting their lives back to together without fear of reprisals by nationalist/fascists. That is what this whole operation is supposed to be about. The speed and efficiency with which this happens is crucial to the long term success of the operation and will eventually register with the Western public however hard their governments try to hide it.
Cossackgundi is playing the poor duped Englishman, unaware that his links with Pinner in Syria, and Pinner’s action back in Bosnia are known. His loyal followers on social media gave the game away.
Feb 28, 2022
Cossackgundi has fully left social media to us in the rear, so he can concentrate on removing Russians.
https://t.me/rustroyka1945/1147
What are they intending to do to these vermin?
I heard they will live (not be killed) but they will be trialed and face imprisonment for the rest of their lives.
My feeling is that after the trial, they could find a way to ‘suicide’ them or die from natural causes (Slobodan Milosevic style) while they serve prison time. I would not waste yax payer’s money feeding them and keeping them alive.They love killing Slavs it seems.
Who knows how many innocent women and children these “self confessed lovers of peace” have killed as they deemed the Russian military a bit too tough to kill.
So what are the chances of a Ukrainian false flag “Easter Sunday Massacre,” like something that would make the Pope cringe? I read on Southfront*, Russia put out a “Surrender or Else” (else meaning death) ultimatium to what is left in the Azovstal plant in Mariupol. Sounds like a nice break for the Easter holiday that everybody in the Azovastal ought take advantage of. However, the way I read it is that if the remains of the resistance do not take Russia up on their offer, there is going to be some real grizzly fireworks come Monday, or probably more like Tuesday. I have my popcorn.
Wait 8 days, we will see!
Great sitrep. Thanks Nightvision.
One question: was it not 10 days ago the US decided to send Switchblade drones to Ukraine? If they are already now being used, that would be a very fast supply and deployment. Any thoughts on that?
Thanks.
The only thing that takes long to supply are the big stuff that is hard to ‘hide’. They have to figure out ways how to sneak it in and that often takes time for them to wait for the right “opportunity”. But switchblades are tiny damn-near pocket sized drones. They are very easy to instantly sneak in in the back of any old car so that’s the main reason they can reach the frontlines instantly as they just drive them in the backs of civilian vehicles.
Larger systems like S-300’s etc have to come in via rail and are very hard to hide so often it takes a while before they can figure out a scheme or perfect time/place to do it, etc.
Btw, forgot to make the point once again of a truly great sitrep as alway, Nightvision. Appreciate all your work. Thanks heaps!
Also the fact that the Russian MOD comes out with statements in advance, like “provocations are planned by the UAF… ” no doubt, as a result of intercepted communications, helps alleviate / thwart such plans.
Switchblade is ideal terrorist weapon. Methinks someone will regret painfully its emergence in real world.
What MANPADs were for civil aviation, Switchblade will be for VIPs
Yep but hopefully VIPs will be protected by EW stations in the rearguard near battalion command posts etc. The thing about EW warfare is, the smaller your electronic circuits, and less protected that they are, the more susceptible they are to complete destruction by way of powerful EW stations with huge amounts of wattage output. So a large drone with fortified circuits may be protected, but the smaller the drone and more fragile its circuitry the easier that circuitry is fried by huge wattage systems of Russian EW. So in short, there’s a good possibility that tiny drones like Switchblade would be fried instantly by Russian EW systems. As Dr. Philip Karber described in that talk at West Point which I posted, the Russian EW systems can even fry electronic fuses in artillery shells midflight.
They were already there and were managed by American operators. Ukrainians would not be able to learn so quickly.
Saw only one confirmed use on telegram against T72 not sure what series of drone.If Russians are moving Krasuha and other electronic gear in the region it will all become obsolete.
“…that would be a very fast supply and deployment. ”
More likely they deployed first, brag about later.
Maskirovka, maskirovka…
Overwhelming force saves lives.
With the SMO moving full steam, it would make sense to ship some S-400/S-300/Pantsir combo to some specific countries (Venezuela, Cuba, Yemen?, etc) in exchange for joint exploitation of marine/offshore military bases. Such move could significantly strain the empire resources, particularly if China choose to weaponize its bad debt (US treasury bonds) through collateral for Silk Road loans or pure selling. Higher interest rate in T-bonds at a time of inflation, with looming hyperinflation (aka dedollarization) and Social Security about to be bankrupt, may constrain the Empire ability to conduct hybrid war. The SMO appears to be more of a tipping maneuver than a war.
It has consistently amazed me that Russia and China do not do more things at their disposal like this.
Shown on MSM, Putin sounded a warning message to the countries sending weapons to Ukraine.
I wonder if there will be a Cuban missile crisis moment? Afterall, the Americans and Co do not act on what the can’t see (e.g. nuclear submarines) but if the threat is visible, then the West might regain their lost manners and discard their poor attitude.
Nuclear missiles positioned in said regions might just be the message that the collective west might understand if they continue to aid terrorism in Ukraine.
One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter. Nuclear weapons have made nuclear war obsolete. Anyone threatening their use is bluffing.
“Nuclear weapons have made nuclear war obsolete. Anyone threatening their use is bluffing.”
Except sooner or later they will all be used. When have humans not used their toys? In fact, of course, the Americans already used them, not demonstrating their power at sea, or even on a military base, but on two cities.
Stephen Hawking didn’t think the human race would survive the 21st century.
Great report. Thanks, Nightvision!
https://telegra.ph/Srochnoe-zayavlenie-Mezhvedomstvennogo-koordinacionnogo-shtaba-Rossijskoj-Federacii-po-gumanitarnomu-reagirovaniyu-ot-16-aprelya-04-16
The appeal of the Ministry of Defense of Russia.
Urgent statement of the Interdepartmental Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response dated April 16, 2022
———————————————————————————————
Taking into account the catastrophic situation at the Azovstal Metallurgical Plant, as well as guided by purely humane principles, the Russian Armed Forces propose to the militants of nationalist battalions and foreign mercenaries from 06:00 (Moscow time) on April 17, 2022 to cease any hostilities and lay down their arms. All those who have laid down their weapons are guaranteed the preservation of life.
For the practical implementation of the measures of this next humanitarian operation , the following algorithm of actions is provided:
from 05:00 (Moscow time), continuous communication is established between the Russian and Ukrainian sides for the mutual exchange of information;
from 05:30 (Moscow time), the militants of nationalist battalions and foreign mercenaries – on the one hand, the Russian Armed Forces together with the military formations of the Donetsk People’s Republic – on the other hand, declare a “regime of complete silence” and guarantee its strict observance;
the actual beginning of the “silence regime”, this is 06:00 (Moscow time), is indicated by both sides by raising flags: from the Russian side – red, from the Ukrainian side – white around the perimeter of Azovstal. In addition, the fact that the parties are ready to introduce a “silence mode” is confirmed by all communication channels;
from 06:00 to 13:00 (Moscow time) – the exit of all Ukrainian armed units and foreign mercenaries without exception, without any weapons and ammunition.
Once again, we call on the official authorities of Kiev to show prudence, to give appropriate instructions to the militants about ending senseless resistance and leaving the hotbed of resistance. But realizing that they will not receive such orders and commands from the Kiev authorities, we urge them to make such a decision on their own and lay down their arms.
In addition, we appeal to all servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries – with the cynical attitude of the Kiev authorities, such an unenviable fate awaits all of you. Given this, do not test your fate following the example of the Mariupol tragedy, but take the only right decision to stop hostilities and lay down your arms now, wherever your “curators” force you to fight for the ideas of Nazism. At the same time, the Russian Federation guarantees each of you the preservation of life and compliance with all the norms of the Geneva Convention on the Treatment of Prisoners of War, as has already happened with your comrades who previously surrendered in Mariupol.
This urgent statement is subject to immediate publication and communication to the United Nations, OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organizations through all available information resources, including the media.
In addition, the specified urgent statement during the night will be continuously brought to the Ukrainian formations at Azovstal on all radio channels with an interval of every 30 minutes.
Wow! Going to be a very tense several hours for both sides. Saw your other post at Smoothie reporting that Kiev is threatening those inside Azvostal with execution if they surrender.
I wonder how that would work? The guys who surrendered would be with the Russians. Those Ukranians are some dumb shits!
Ukie commanders may be instructed to give orders to shoot ‘deserters’ if they try to surrender. That may be a consistent threat that keeps a majority of troops fighting to the death.
Only if those who decide to surrender don’t kill them first.
I wouldn’t put it that way. More like high as a kite Nazi nationalists are prepared to die for their cause, whatever cause they imagine.
These Nazis are sub-human. They have no emotions and are happy to kill, torture and maim as many Russian children as they can… as they believe that their blood is pure and that they somehow deem themselves to be the master race.
On the topic of dumb, I saw a video on Telegram of a babushka given a Ukrainian teenager (possibly on some substance, who wanted to join the fight for the Ukrainian nation) some valuable life lessons.. she informed him that the Russian military are strong and don’t lose wars… that his ancestry had fought under the flag of the USSR to rscape genocide from the Germans… but he really couldn’t provide an answer to her ultimate question, “why do you feel the need to fight for others?”.
Such a powerful woman with a clear mind and values, such a rare case in our beloved west.
Thanks, Nightvision! I actually go through Nightvision withdrawal on the days you don’t post.
Question: a Ukrainian cargo jet was shot down near Odessa (I think) carrying tons of USA weapons. How was it shot down?
Thanks and wishing you all the best!
I’ve seen some posts on it but no real confirmation so it’s hard to say if this is real or not, for now doesn’t seem that likely but we’ll see.
If it turns out to be true then it can be shot down a number of ways, such as Russian frigates that are all floating not too far from Odessa, many of which have the naval version of Buk missiles called Shtil onboard, like the one that shot the TB2 days ago with the same missiles https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2022/april/11611-russian-frigate-admiral-essen-destroys-ukrainian-bayraktar-tb2-uav.html
And Crimea has S-400 battalions on its west coast which are less than 250km from Odessa, while the S-400’s range is over 400km, so they can reach as well if need be.
Thanks! By the way, last night, I had a REAL BEAR in my backyard. We fed him blueberry muffins, suet and a package of peanut butter crème cookies. I took it as a very good omen!
The Azovstal factory, the final frontier, where Ukrainian hardware and Nazis go to die, just like the elephants graveyard.
An intercepted call by RF between USS- Starship Enterprise and Azov Commander (Billy The Kid’s Hole In The Wall Gang) trapped like an experimental insect/bird in a US-German Biolab in Ukraine went like this –
2 minutes of uncontrollable wailing and sobbing with bad runny nose :-
‘For crying out loud, beam me up Scottie’
‘ We’re trying son, those evil Russkies are shooting down our choppers like clay pigeons’
‘Listen asshole we’re out of food, ammo and them psychedelic drugs that nice CIA man gave us’
‘I hear ya boy, now keep it together the Russians are surrendering in vast numbers’
‘Are you sure ’cause there’s 200 Kalibr missiles pointed at the factory gate’?
‘They’re bluffing son, just keep those hostages in the firing line and if you get real hungry spit-roast one’
‘Yeah we had one last night but the twat of a cook over-seasoned him’
‘We’ll talk again tomorrow, that’s Blinken on another line’
Thanks as always Nightvision
Some questions (from a person, like me, without significant military knowledge)
1) According to current estimates, some 50% of existent ukro MLRS and artillery have been destroyed so far. How easy / hard is, in the current situacion, the destruction of the remaining weapons of this tyype, that continue to shell civilians in LDNR, and also seem to be the main danger for Russian forces?
2) How easy / hard is to replace in the theater operations the weapons lost by the sinking of the cruiser Moscow (missiles, radars and the like)?
3) The reports yesterday indicated the destruction by cruise missiles of some ukro factories of missiles, tanks, etc. Any theories about why this hadd not been done before? Are there many remaining factories of this kind?
4) Do you think that Russia has a good enough capability for interception / destruction of the continuous weapons supply from the west to the ukros?
5) Do you think that physical destruction of ukro personnel (KIA, etc.) is currently playing a major role in the Russian strategy that at the beginnings of the SMO?
Sincere regards
Hi thanks.
1. Pretty hard to find/hit. Most of the remaining ones are operating in the same way that you saw the one in Kiev that was struck by the Iskander. i.e. it came out only to shoot briefly, then was quickly scooted back into cover in a civilian mall. Similarly these are mostly all in heavy camo/cover and are taken out to shoot then quickly hidden so it’s very difficult to find them all in a general search & sweep operation. The only way they’re usually found/targeted is via counter-battery fire when they are actively firing and can be quickly suppressed before they’re again hidden away.
2. Depends if you mean its offensive or defensive missiles. Defensively it had a naval s-300 onboard which is a bit more powerful/longer range than the naval Buks and Verbas and such that the smaller Russian frigates have in the black sea. But a couple frigates could generally replace that, including the radar coverage.
However if we’re talking offensively, nothing Russia really has in that region can replace the massive 16 tubes of carrier killer P-500 missiles Moskva had. These are nuclear capable also and so had huge deterrent (there’s now Ukie ‘rumors’ that the Moskva had a couple nuke warheads on board when it sunk).
In general the firepower can’t be replaced any time soon. It’s a big loss and weakens the Russian fleet in the region, there’s simply no other way to cut it. Maybe not in a really huge way but in a noticeable and tangible way.
3. I’ve seen several theories such as that some of these factories Russia was hoping to save for its own future infrastructure and did not want to kill them unless absolutely necessary, last resort measure. Other factories are brand new, cropping up all the time and Russia only just identifies them. For instance there was a whole report on how several Ukrainian factories producing some regular civilian products were taken over and converted to full war manufacturing of shells, etc. So Russia has to manually identify these via HUMINT and other methods. Also not all of them were in operation before. There’s possibilities that some of them were not operating and Russia knew that, and only upon starting operations of producing some war armament did Russia then bomb them.
4. Good “ENOUGH”? No, but then no one does really. For instance we know the U.S. and Israel are constantly trying to bomb Iranian shipments to its proxies in Syria (hezbollah and other units). They bomb every week, for years and they still can’t stop these shipments. And Iran is far less capable in these regards than all the power of NATO, wouldn’t you agree? So if U.S./Israel can’t get all these shipments, then how do you expect Russia to do it? The fact of the matter is, there’s simply no way to stop shipments that are coming over the border in civilian vehicles. You can identify them via geostationary satellite tracking as they offload/load back in Poland and try to track the vehicles as they enter Ukraine then hand it over to UCAV drones etc but when there’s many vehicles at the same time and they disperse it’s hard to track them all as I don’t think Russia has enough satellites to see everything simultaneously in this way.
With that said, there’s some indications from the U.S. that Russia has destroyed huge amounts of their shipments despite what they say ‘publicly’. For instance right now there’s a lot of talk about how the entire UAF is running out of ammo/armaments. How is that possible if all these shipments are getting to them? Clearly they’re not.
5. Yes definitely. At the beginning they avoided it entirely. Now they target troop concentrations regularly, though still probably not as much as they can (like carpet bombing Donbass positions/trenches with heavy bombers, etc). But that could change with the start of Phase 2 soon
Many thanks for your answers, one more question regarding again the cruiser Moskva. Andrei Martyanov mentioned some times that her has a twin ship -Marshal Ustinov, if memory helps-. Do you know if this cruiser, that I guess has similar firepower capabilities, also belongs to the BSF or is part of another Russian fleet and therefore not in the Black Sea?
Sincere regards
“Marshal Ustinov” has reappeared
The ship is located south of Crete and is maneuvering in the central Mediterranean more or less in the same area.
https://www.itamilradar.com/2022/02/17/marshal-ustinov-has-reappeared/
Russian cruiser Varyag (1983)
In February 2022, the cruiser entered the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal and linked-up with her sister ship, Marshal Ustinov deploying to the Mediterranean from the Northern Fleet.[56][57]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_cruiser_Varyag_(1983)
“I’ve seen several theories such as that some of these factories Russia was hoping to save for its own future infrastructure and did not want to kill them unless absolutely necessary, last resort measure”
Such theories crossed my mind too, but then again, there is no way to stop Ukies to demolish those factories before retreat. And Russia will lose number of soldiers in futile attempt to save what can’t be saved.
Unless Kiev surenders, and order it’s troops to lay down weapons. And those troops obey. Both of the conditions are queationable.
Nightvision, perhaps a question for another time… how is it that a country like Russia does not have the number/quality of satellites that the US possesses? Don’t the US rely on Russian rocket technology to transport said satellites?
Btw, I always wonder (sorry mods, going slightly of topic) given Russia’s intellectual snd natural resources, why can’t they build things at least the equal of German/Japanese/Chinese manufacturing quality?
As for satellites: there’s no competing with the absolute U.S. military budget (almost 1 trillion vs. Russian 60 billion) so they will always be able to put much more satellites into orbit than Russia. AND on top of that, they have the entire “5 Eyes” group of Canada, Australia, NZ, UK, etc which all have their own satellites and have stations shared by U.S. intelligence like the famous Pine Gap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pine_Gap in Australia. And they’ve already stated they are all helping Ukraine. So you just can’t compete with that level of space surveillance.
As for the other manufacturing question, well it depends on what you refer to, there are many industrial/military related things Russia manufacturers with far higher quality than any of the mentioned countries particularly China which still can’t figure out engines in either ships OR planes that match Russian engines. As for Germany, their expertise goes back such a long way that question becomes quite large and historical and many people might say it’s simply hereditary to the people to be that advanced because Germany as pretty much always been the manufacturing and technical superpower. The answers to that are way too big in scope and go back hundreds of years.
But Japanese on the other hand, I’ve read that the the biggest explanation for their technological / manufacturing advancement in the past 70 or so years has been massive subsidization from the U.S. because U.S. wanted to build a cheap labor force over there that can mass produce electronics for the U.S. market for cheap $$$ and so they subsidized all their industries. Not sure how accurate this is but that’s what I’ve read and the rabbit hole for this answer probably also goes deep.
With that said by far the largest explanation for why Russia lags behind in certain technologies is all due to one reason: that the entire west has maintained massive sanctions/embargoes etc on Russia since WW2. Obviously throughout the entire Cold War the USSR was under all sorts of special restrictions/sanctions/embargoes from the West which at every turn fought to stifle, choke and destroy Soviet industries. So the USSR/Russia always being ‘on its own’ in that sense meant that it could not trade equally with the rest of the world and was always deprived the top technological advances that the others all shared amongst each other. So this is the main thing responsible for Russia’s lagging. And of course at the time they even were locked off from China due to Sino-Soviet split but now Russia being best friends with China at its technological peak SHOULD bode well for the future of Russian advancements especially when China retakes Taiwan which has the sole global monopoly on microchip production, hopefully Russia can benefit from that and leap ahead in its native industries of that nature.
Ukrainian casualties are about to skyrocket. Hopefully most of these ukie soldiers will be smart enough to realize that this isn’t worth it and white flag it.
Well it looks like they followed the Fuhrer/Welenskey order to fight to the last man and bullet,General Paulus had more sense he surrendered at Stalingrad after being given the same order.
Nightvision –
Great work as usual. Thanks again to Saker for permitting these updates.
Just finished viewing Jackson Hinkle’s update where he says that Ukraine bombed civilian apartments in Russia proper and now Russia has taken the gloves off and is retaliating in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities against “decision-making centers.” Check it out:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucpMWuRv9MY
Sputnik reports now of Azov and Mercs wanting to surrender in Mariupol.
https://sputniknews.com/20220416/updates-militants-mercenaries-at-azovstal-asking-kiev-to-allow-them-to-surrender—russian-mod-1094823116.html
There are also reports that NATO regulars have been taken prisoner. Russia says it will make this known soon.
We live in interesting times.
Apparenty, there’s a ceasefire in effect (if accepted) by the Russian siege of Azovstal, on April 17th, between 06:00 and 13:00 local time. Reiterate: if accepted . . .
Putin is way too soft imho.
Well they ain’t going anywhere and there’s still many hostages, mainly foreigners. They’ve been patient thus far and are 95% + mission accomplished.
What I’m most surprised about was all the talk over the weeks regarding these factories/labyrinths being stockpiled with wmd’s. From what we’ve witnessed these last few days, surrendering marines even ran out of bullets.
Hostages – Save The Factory – Capture The NATO Guys ALIVE, all done with minimising casualties.
I was thinking Azov’s final hurrah, a volley of 100 cruise missiles into Donbass or wherever.
I was thinking to wait them out – covering most of the air vents (they know where most of them are), restricting airflow. They will leave, suffocate, or starve.
Otherwise, they and their companion and co-murderers from NATO will become martyrs all across the West.
Here’s a report about NATO regulars taken prisoner by Russian forces….
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/russian-official:-military-personnel-of-nato-states-among-pr
But I thought that NATO was not directly involved! Whoops!
For direct NATO involvement, have a look at Nightvision’s previous Sit-Rep, which contains a report on a French journalist’s account of his encounters with US/NATO commanders in Ukraine. The journalist accompanied several French mercs on their journey to Ukraine to fight Russia.
Henry Schlottman, a major OSINT war analyst on Twitter, did something unusual tonight. He posted a graph depicting his rough estimate of total Nazi casualties as of today. Schlottman’s graph indicates the Nazis have suffered approximately 9,000 KIA and another 18,000 WIA.
Schlottman’s data is remarkable because most of his war analysis tweets tend to toe the pro-US/NATO/UKR propaganda line. In other words, any discussion of Nazi combat losses is a big no-no. The ultimate taboo.
Curiously, Schlottman pulled his graph down just minutes after posting it. But I managed to take a screen shot of Schlottman’s data before it disappeared, including his comments.
NightVision: I emailed Schlottman’s graph to The Saker. I don’t know if it’s of any interest to you, but it so, ask Saker for it.
Thanks. That’s definitely interesting because Schlottman is also the only one of the western propagandist OSINTers who also admitted some other truths, such as the fact that Russia did not start with anywhere near 180 BTGs as it has been Schlottman who is arduously tracking the BTGs more than anyone else (he’s the guy responsible for the force disposition map I’ve posted before (https://www.uawardata.com/)
So this guy knows a few too many ‘inconvenient’ facts about the UAF, but I’m sure he’s not eager to share them with his audience. I’m not surprised he pulled down that chart as I’m sure he got some whispers or threats very quickly.
The 9000 figure actually sounds very accurate to me and if I had to guess it would be somewhere in that range as well. The Russian MOD stated 23k casualties for UAF today, but we know they said these are “unrecoverable” people, i.e. even those with severe injuries who will not return to combat. So the 23k isn’t just KIA’s. Out of those 23k it’s probably realistic that 9k or so are KIAs while the remaining are seriously injured, POWs (we know for a fact there’s at least 3000-5000 POWs because Donbass alone reported they have 3k, and Russia has many more of its own as well).
Of the losses of Ukraine (from two Telegram channels) and little bit reasoning behind figures.
“Older than Edda”
Excerpts =>
…I read the news that Zelensky announced the number of losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and it amounted to 3,000 people.
…I do not know how many soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine died on other fronts, but even in the battle for Kamenka south of Izyum, 3 full-blooded battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine participated and they were defeated.
…If the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were so low, we would not have found such a number of reservists from Kiev, Chernihiv, Dnepropetrovsk and other regions of Ukraine among those killed and captured.
… I fully agree with the estimates of the Russian Defense Ministry on the number of killed soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They are clearly above 20,000 people.
“War on fakes”
Excerpts =>
…even a cursory analysis of open sources shows that the losses of the Ukrainian military are significantly higher ( than Zelensky figures), and exceed the figures he announced by at least an order of magnitude.
…in just one day of fighting near Kharkov, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost about 100 fighters. The fighting in this direction is still going on, and even if we assume that their intensity has decreased, then for so many days of conflict, the number of deaths in this direction alone will be approximately equal to the figures announced by Zelensky
….on March 9, only in clashes with the people’s militia of the DPR, the troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost 60 people. This is for one day and only on one sector of the front.
…Zelensky voices losses only among the Armed Forces of Ukraine, although territorial defense units are still fighting on the side of Ukraine (for which there are practically no statistics at all, because they were formed chaotically, and act just as chaotically)
…As early as April 12, military experts estimated the number of Ukrainian military casualties at 33,000 people. This is without taking into account the wounded and prisoners.
Thank you Nightvision.
The new category of ‘artillery and missle forces’ added the last 2 days by RUS MOD reports may indicate phase 2 has started? The numbers of destroyed vehicles and command posts is very large compared to recent long range missle and air force numbers.
Here’s a video you might like –
Guy with a UK patch at 1:26 in Stugna-P ATGM team
https://mobile.twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1511383567095537667?cxt=HHwWhoC9wZfWwfkpAAAA
Notice they are focused on TOS, armored personnel carrier, fuel truck.
The is all from Dr. Karber assessments about how limit effectiveness of BTC.
He is MUCH bigger operator than most people understand. For instance, he spearheaded this previously classified 80’s Nuclear War game that changed US policy. He and Wesley Clarke have a book coming out and have been testifying before congress about what they call ‘roll over’ – sending military ‘surplus’ to nato. AKA new western arms race playing out before our eyes.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proud_Prophet
An early video I don’t think a lot of people have seen from Kiev assault- British ‘Jason’, American ‘Greg’
https://mobile.twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1497029144898682890?cxt=HHwWlIC-geyEwsYpAAAA
Maybe when RUS MOD claims they know the location of every mercenary in the country it is from following the comms and movement of nolan and similar people. A ‘former’ USAF pilot now a ‘journalist’ who reports from many links within ‘TDF’ and ‘volunteer’ groups, including Georgians
@arkx Brasil,
First USA is booted from Afghanistan.
Second USA/NATO plans for Ukraine are thwarted by Russian SOP.
Third (in the future), China re-establishes control over Taiwan.
Three defeats for Western forces in a row. I’d say that the Neocon vision of how the world should work is being obliterated.
However, I do not believe, even with these defeats, the USA/NATO will resort to nuclear weapons.
On the political front, Kahn will likely be elected to lead Pakistan and Le Pen, if elected in France, will possibly pull France out of NATO.
History in action….
Le Pen has zero chance, she is like the father was, a controlled opposition like the many we had(Tsipras, Varoufakis, Salvini, Podemos Iglesias (?), the Austrian one who had been regime changed and many others).
Le Pen after winning presidential elections will be blackmailed by USA, so she will forget about promise of leaving NATO. I don’t belive in major changes in France.
Me neither. Theatre.
We are at a critical stage of the conflict between the U.S and Russia.
The U.S is now stockpiling armaments on the Polish side of the border, they now have to decide to commit these arms to esculate the conflict.
Russia has to decide are they going to allow these weapons to be distributed or will they hit them in Poland before they are distributed, that will unleash a possible all-out conflict with the U.S.
And then the U.S has to worry if an escalation with Russia will free-up China -who is watching closely- to act on Taiwan?
We are at a crossroads that may plunge the world on a dark path?
We are already in an all-out conflict with U.S. The hostilities from NATO/US cant be more offensive with US instructing UAF attacks inside Russia.
A Kinzhal in the middle of the next Nato meeting would be more effective than blowing up a weapon depot in Poland. It is the same legal breach, so why not exploit it.
Primorski District was taken on Friday. However, there were holdouts who needed killing, because they
did not participate in the breakout Thursday, during which 200 were killed.
MOD – Russia just promulgated a call for those in AzovStal to surrender tomorrow.
~367 radio messages were intercepted, in which the hold outs claim to be out of food, water, & ammo,
and asked for permission to surrender. Said permission was denied.
Looks like a matter of day(s) before they either starve or surrender.
INDY
Russia has offered all militants inside Azovstal a guarantee of life and safety if they surrender beginning 6AM Moscow time.
To all those fighters stuck inside Azovstal I say: Choose life. Choose dignity. Do not die for the USA. They are using you. In the spirit of Easter, choose Rebirth.
Does a Nazi have dignity, even if denazified?
They are only deigned by satan.
Yes that would be contrary to Putin’s No.1 objective of denazification. Who’s going to spend the resources required to rehabilitate these mental cripples? They’d resurface in another year or two rebranded as moderate terrorists, like HTS. Screw that! NO PRISONERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@WTFUD:
You don’t understand that being in Russian prison aren’t like walk in the park, do you? Years long or life sentences will mentally break these Nazis. I can safely place my beat on many of them contemplating about suicide after couple years.
Russian prison isn’t like a walk in the park, sorry auto correction tool in phone
10-20 years minimum hard labour – work the Nazism out of the system – put the prisoners to work on reconstruction in post-war Novorossiya – differential treatment & perks according to work performance, such as decent food, decent bedding (minus cockroaches), single cell & the like, TV (no porn allowed), that kind of thing. Hard labour does not have to be totally inhumane either, a Monday to Friday work day, 7 hours per day, 30 minute lunch, all of that. Russia could put priests in the prisons to do decent rehabilitative work – basically these people can be put to good use. Those Ukie POWs that are not Nazis, & don’t have innocent blood on their hands, can be given the opportunity to work in post-war Novorossiyan security, doing counter-insurgency, obviously after rigorous vetting procedure, psych testing, mental health assessment, etc. etc. The outright Nazis with blood on their hand who are captured, well, LDNR has capital punishment, so…..
I am far from a religious scholar (and I am Muslim) but yes from my understanding of Christianity if one is sincerely repentant AND makes efforts to make up for one’s sins then Heaven is open to you …. this is part of the Islamic understanding of “The Messiah” (Jesus Christ, peace be upon him) who is defined as the one who opened the gates of Heaven.
Perhaps, (G_d knows best), but a decade of hard labor in the Siberia front-lines will definitely help their fallen souls find Madam Metanoira (remorse).
Phred is absolutely correct. Heaven is open even to he worst criminals who genuinely repent. Dont forget St Paul was a Nazi against the Christians at the time till “he saw the light on the way to Damascus” He then genuinely repented and was this one with God. Bad people can genuinely become good , but must first must repent and in most cases be punished as well ,but Heaven is open to them .
The Nazi fighters are in the clutches of Satan but those who orchestrated this horror (USA) are Satan itself.
Well they did find evidence of satanic rituals amongst the UAF https://www.bitchute.com/video/6sw4JG4Ly9WY/
And there is also this, the satanic church stands with Ukraine brothers
https://i.postimg.cc/dQNqvYzf/5391346604583271076.jpg
Good question. Putin and the Russians certainly seem to leave themselves room for interpretation. In this case, de-Nazify could mean public disavowment, penance, time served, and so forth for those Nazis who choose to surrender in this situation.
According to Christianity, salvation is open to anyone who repents and believes in the gospel, so this dispensation of mercy would be fitting. It wouldn’t be lost on the religious world.
Does anyone know if the US ever offered any sort of surrender to people in Afghanistan, Iraq? Libya, Syria? Vietnam, Korea?
“We already have prisoners among the military personnel of NATO countries, we will show all this when we conduct trials, and the whole world will see what really happened,” he said during a briefing with the media. The senator also said that there are mercenaries in Ukraine from Asia, Africa, Great Britain, the USA and other states. He recalled that mercenaries are not military personnel and they are not subject to international law.”
The military personnel refers to NATO officials (Lt. colonel or above?) who will be on trial under international law, he says, but not the others because they are mercenaries (unless later he says there will be trials for them too).
NATO officers are foreign nationals, not party to the conflict, not allied with Ukraine, thus illegal combatants (mercenaries). This would be determined by a court of law, and if they are determined to be mercenaries they are subject to criminal prosecution and whatever penalties are available. Until such time they are treated in accordance with the Geneva Conventions.
Try to imagine the west’s response to these trials.
What the statement (quote) said about trials applies to only NATO personnel not to the others mentioned (the mercenaries). It’s what it plainly says. The word “trials” there is about the NATO personnel.
Apart from this, there’s no way he (Putin) would treat the NATO officers as mercenaries outside international law and susceptible to just being executed without trial because of that. They won’t go that far! They could if you want, but they won’t! “You can take it to the bank.” The mercenaries or non-NATO personnel is at a big risk of summary executions.
“This would be determined by a court of law, and if they are determined to be mercenaries they are subject to criminal prosecution and whatever penalties are available.”
It’s possible but most likely a trial is not needed to determine if they are mercenaries or just NATO personnel. This would be a political decision (from above the trial). They are already saying “NATO personnel” and making clear that mercenaries have no right to a trial. The trial would determine what they did and what the penalty is. The penalties would be harsh not light. “Try to imagine the west’s response to these trials.” They would say they were just ‘trainers’ and never direct participants in the war (probably true?), that they had no time to get out, that the Russian attack happened without warning – things like that. Russia would probably put some of them in jail afterwards and maybe release others (which it would suit them to do). It would be a propaganda triumph for Russia, and already is because no doubt some personnel have been captured (lying about it is impossible, pretty much, because propaganda win would become larger propaganda loss). This is huge news. The New York Times has nothing on it today. It won’t be long before they have to cover it. A headline today says, “Zelensky Signals That Russian Forces Are Close to Seizing Mariupol”, so it’s falling soon…
A Ukrainian soldier is okay,he was just defending his homeland,unless he has committed a war crime,will be able to go home at end of war.
Any Nato or Mercenaries will stand trial and be sentenced,because they came to kill Slavic people for money.
“Andrei Klimov, deputy head of the commission of the United Russia party for international cooperation…”
It’s a true fact once the government says it. That’s senator Klimov, not quite the government. I can’t imagine that he would be gossiping with something like that, but a politician can say anything too.
Well done again, Nightvision! I thoroughly enjoy these sitreps of yours.
“The Pentagon instructed the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to withdraw all the remaining artillery to the cities on the eastern front …”
While the above is, as you wrote, only gist, isn’t it intriguing how the allegedly non-belligerent US directly dictates strategy to the “sovereign” nation of Ukraine?
Kinda makes you wonder, eh? };-)
Yep. U.S. has very obvious leverage to be able to control the UAF. It can simply say “Follow our commands or we stop the flow of weapons”. Any Ukrainian general would have no choice but to keep following the diktats of the Americans under such demands as he knows his only lifeline in the war is the supply of arms/ammunition
Recall from the last 10 mins of Dr. Karber‘s presentation that his favorite Ukr General is trained at Leavenworth and was involved in Yugoslavia
Where can I find that presentation? If you don´t know exactly do you know the name and/or date of the presentation?
Thanks.
Z
It’s in this very sitrep above: https://youtu.be/_CMby_WPjk4?t=1584 watch from this point to the end.
If US officers are stationed inside Ukraine and are directly or indirectly commanding Ukrainian military operations, then this is a proxy war in the truest sense of the term. Ukie soldiers are proxies for American soldiers. Wouldn’t it be nice if Russia could organize a special operation to capture some of the US officers, perhaps a general or a colonel? How would the Western MSM spin that story? Second best would be to take out a C2 center where these officers hang out. Better than hitting a C2 in Kiev, I should think.
Nazi’s better to listen becouse by midnight Easter time we will have a barbeque party
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-gives-ultimatum-to-mariupol-nazis-until-9-00-gmt-to-lay-down-their-weapons
The Azovs in particular are between a rock and a hard place because they know that Russia will prosecute them to the highest degree if captured due to the known crimes they have committed dating back to 2014 (crucifying and burning Russian citizens in Mariupol etc). So while normal UAF Marines in Mariupol could surrender with the knowledge they may just be quickly exchanged in prisoner exchanges, Azov knows they’re screwed because Russia does not tolerate Nazis. So I would be extremely surprised if they are caught alive.
And I’m also really curious how long it will take to clear Azovstal. By all measures it’s a giant complex and no one knows the true depths of the subterranean levels (said to be 6 or 8 underground floors). Most of it could be booby trapped and it could theoretically take weeks to clear it all OR they could all fall/surrender in a day, there’s really no telling how long it could take.
Nightvision, if the complex goes deep is how many ways out are built in such that even if known entrances could be sealed off to let hunger and time do it’s work Azov leaders/NATO advisors can escape? I also wonder about what types of munitions can penetrate deeply?
Hard to tell, I would imagine there’s huge amounts of exits/entrances cus the complex is gigantic. But I don’t think Russia wants to just wait til they starve because time is precious and Russia needs to free up men to begin Phase 2 of the operation, so I’m sure it wants to clear Mariupol as quickly as possible. I doubt they want to use penetrating munitions either for a variety of reasons including not wanting to completely destroy the factory. But we’ll see which method they choose soon
Just bomb all the exits , and wait until they starve to death . They are already out of supply .
Thanks for the update Nightvision! A lot of good reports in comment section too! Go Mother Russia! A Revolutionary SMO!
The EU will cry uncle sooner than later and exchange war for Russian natural gas. The only other option is to accept domestic chaos and collapse, which won’t be allowed to happen. In this way America is wholly defeated.
Don’t underestimate their incompetence, craziness and submission. I’m not sure at all it will happen soon, not before the winter anyway or even 2023.
EU eurocrats don’t need to be elected or reelected it is an important issue, they act like a real soft Junta.
EU parliement has zero power, they can not even propose a new law. They just make statements votes, with no legal consequence.
In Brussels (a bit in Luxembourg and Strasbourg also), more or less 120.000 people have a job depending on the EU or Nato (direct or indirect) and their multiple NGO’S.Brussels is a relatively small capital with 1.2 million inhabitants, taking out the kids, the youngs (18-21) and a massive number of retired, unemployed and ‘sicks’ on social benefits, it means that one job out of 6 is linked directly or indirectly to the EU-NATO complex.
This is huge, there is zero industry left in Brussels this is a kind of small Washington D C.Only parasite services.
Which means in terms of this EU-NATO complex capitulating or making some kind of negociation is near zero, otherwise these politicos and their civil servants(overpaid), would lose face too much, they ‘invested’ far too much(money + narrative) it would have direct consequences on elected politicos (2024), these one must go to elections eventhough there are very few real elections in the West now(only pro EU/US are allowed to participate anyway).
They sincerely believe Russia is losing and will lose and that Putin will be or regime changed or killed.
I have contacts during the week with these people(I’m not part of their circus), it is North Korea 2.0 here or worse.
It’s worse, a lot worse.
The levels of self delusion, obnoxiousness and myopic hubris are off the charts.
It’s like living and working in an open air mental asylum. There are ‘non-conformists’ amongst us plebs but the entire ruling-political-media class have gone, gone with the faeries, lost the plot.
Some are predicting trouble and disorder this summer. I’m not sure. But trouble and disorder are coming somewhere down the line, that is inevitable.
We never knew just how ignorant and uncompromising gvt was, until having to defend a plant called cannabis.
@Percy
Have to disagree to a point. If the Us tells the EU citizens to jump off a bridge, the EU will tell its citizens to jump off a bridge. Easy directions.
That is why the EU, the Euro currency was created… to subvert the will and sovereignty of independent EU nations.
So far, the EU is willing to accept US alternative gas. How long for? God knows. The French yellow vests lead the way with Euro courage… but the rest of Europe needs to show as much fight and determination ss the YV French.
Thanks Nightvision for the excellent update. Really good to know that the remaining Azov Nazis are totally confined to the Azovstal factory.
Regarding Phase 2, I wonder if Russia has some ‘surprises’ for Ukraine Army in terms of timing and locations of the offensives.
Thanks again for the sitrep.
A few videos for today.
‘Not in My Name’ | Thousands of Serbs protest Belgrade’s move against Russia:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/serbia-pro-russia-rally:e
Shows large Russian military column moving through Kharkov oblast:
https://rutube.ru/video/ecb9f9cbaab3ed06be4baa9cf97e33bb/
Cruiser Moskva’s crew met in Sevastopol:
https://rutube.ru/video/e7b74e4e91624ade1e51b79a8c4680c8/
Really good 2 part interview with Scott Ritter on the SMO. I really hope he is correct :
Scott Ritter: A Conversation About Ukraine Part 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fNrnWxXhP0&ab_channel=EdMays
Part 2 Scott Ritter: A Conversation About Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQSTHvD2z1c&ab_channel=EdMays
Another ITW of S Ritter here:
https://youtu.be/AwnjtXhXQNw
I think we should look a little at how many troops Russia (not the USSR) were able to mobilize during WW2.
Russia had a population of around 111 million people at that time (today is around 148 million). They mobilized around 19 million troops during that war (35 million for the USSR in total). They lost close to 7 million dead in the war,and over 7 million civilians died in the war. In total almost 14 million deaths. Putin has said that the RF losses out of all the Soviet losses were 70%.
From this I would say that having 180,000 or less Russian troops fighting in Ukraine is far from the numbers that Russia would be able to mobilize to fight if they need them.In my opinion they should start to mobilize more troops. Since the new Western nazis NATO seems to be pushing for war.And Russia needs to be ready for them.
I’m forming the opinion that Russia was never looking for a short war in the first place and they actually know and intend to drag this war out.
I don’t think they were ever under the illusion that they could accomplish their objectives by a quick strike, mass surrender, partition of Ukraine then back to business as usual. Step back and think about it on different levels.
Being the West’s puppet, Z was never going to surrender. Quickly installing some puppet to replace him was never going to carry any weight if Ukraine hadn’t ever been inflicted any real pain.
A quick war would not end the sanctions regime. In fact, a quick war would make Russia look weak because the short term success of the war would soon be forgotten news compared to the blistering sanctions which would be discussed weekly.
The only way to win a quick war is to devastate the enemy and level infrastructure – bomb them back to the stone age. Then you are stuck with a country full of fighting age males who have no job and no other means of income other than to become a NATO paid resistance fighter.
No, they never planned a short war. That is a brilliant deception in my opinion and one that all the armchair generals eat but to bad mouth how horrible the Russian army is.
If what I suspect is true, China is their partner in this and holds the keys to achieving success.
China seems to be going out of their way to bog down the global supply chain in the midst of the war and an already fragile global financial system and sanctions regime. They are using the covid lockdown as an excuse to disrupt western supply chains even further. For many things it is going to take a good 8-12 months of supply shutdown to really bring many companies/countries to their knees.
8-12 months from now, Russians will have someone sitting across the negotiating table who will actually finally be willing to negotiate. And it won’t be puppet Z either. The negotiations Russia really seeks is with NATO/USA/EU.
Also, I expect at some point China will take Taiwan and USA will be in no position to stop them. I expect that in a year and a half or less. Long enough for some good financial doom to come to the US but short enough where US does not have the time to ramp up US manufacturing to counter the loss. The world is addicted to manufacturing in China, that is not going to go away regardless of them taking Taiwan.
Very good point. War isn’t good only for the US/EU military establishment. Imagine how many Russians are now involved in this war with manufacturing equipment, supplies, etc. and if there’s one country in the world that could drag a war for decades long it would be Russia and not the NATO countries. Therefore the longer the war the more trouble for the West. Russia hasn’t even played its biggest move yet which would be shutting the oil/gas flow to the EU, that she could do at any time in the future.
Except it is very bad for the sleepy citizens, the military is like a rabid trapped animal, it will fight to the death or until it gets away to recover and carry on, there is no negotiating, you are put on a path of control or sent to looney bin.
I dont see any way out except for a complete destruction and a reorganization of gvt, for the rabid animal called gvt, knows it has been cornered and must respond accordingly to save its satanical life blood.
The question of wether Russia was planning for a short war is irrelevant, the war is what it is. No (sane) country engaged in war seeks to “drag it out”.
You have an interesting observation about China intentionally destroying their own supply chains. Yes, that will have a negative effect world-wide. But China sabotaging her supply chains also harms China (and if China is helping Russia), Russia. So that seems counter-productive.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WuZqSreRsvs
On the side note. This is execution of POWs scene from movie 1984. Watch from 0:31 and tell me if this looks similar to the events in Kharkiv.
A big swastika over the entrance door in one of the call centers in Berdyansk that belonged to Ukrainian oligarch Kolomoisky. https://twitter.com/bonanzamedia2/status/1514994241470095361
In relation to the number of casualties in Ukrainian Army, this tells you all you need to know.
They are now literally enlisting young boys. https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1514728799371505671
‘Furthermore, we appeal to all AFU servicemen and foreign mercenaries – with the cynical attitude of the Kiev authorities, such an unenviable fate awaits all of you. With this in mind, do not test your fate like the Mariupol tragedy, but make the only right decision to cease hostilities and lay down your arms now, wherever your “handlers” force you to fight for the ideas of Nazism. However, the Russian Federation guarantees each of you the preservation of your lives and the observance of all norms of the Geneva Convention for the treatment of prisoners of war, as has already happened to your comrades who previously surrendered in Mariupol.’
(Last) Offer made by RF forces to AFU and mercenaries in Azovstal. Good for 17 April.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en/926
Voice broadcast:
https://t.me/inessas100/1164
160,000 troops are not enough. Not using conscripts is a political decision, not a military one. Russia is trying to do this on the cheap. Relocating and refitting troops from Kiev and Mariupol–time you don’t have. On April 1 Russia began letting 135,000 trained draftees go home because their time is up–while bakers and teachers in the Donbas are pressed into service. Are you kidding me? Get a clue. You’re fighting the Empire. The Anglos have not ruled the world for 200 years by being stupid–no matter how much you denigrate them as stupid lawyers. Every time I hear genius Marty deliver his junior high school rant against stupid lawyers and political scientists I think of the Dulles brothers–lawyers who ran circles around Russia for a decade. The Empire is willing to sacrifice their own populations to economic misery in order to win, but Russia can’t use its conscripted soldiers to do what they’re trained to do? Russophiles like to celebrate Russian culture and history–one of admirable resilience and sacrifice against all comers. Time to show the world again what you’re made of.
I disagree. Actually 160,000 was enough for 1st phase of the military operation and they allowed to achieve decisive victory over Ukrainian army.
Majority of equipment of Ukies is destroyed or captured. Russia has secured land passage and water for Crimea. Mariupol is almost taken. Ukies are
surrounded in Donbass and they are taking heavy cassualties. Now it will be important to prevent Ukies from retreating with artillery pieces and armour from Donbass line of contact to Zaporozhe.
Also don’t underestimate guys from LDPR, many of these bakers and teachers have a few years of combat experince and very high morale. These people are willing to fight to death for their homeland. They singed up voluntarily. None of them was “pressed”. They have waited long for opportunity to finally deal with Azov, Aidar and the rest of the Banderovites.
>Phase 2 will bring it under control.
I’d rephrase as: “160,000 is not enough…..to do it swiftly” but it’s enough to do it in a measured and methodical fashion. Let’s wait 1 month and see how the Donbass cauldron is looking, and then let’s re-examine if 160k is enough. 1 month from now the AFU may be basically 80-100k troops less (the 30k casualties they already have plus the 50k+ they have in Donbass) which would mean the rest of Ukraine would have nothing but some really untrained stragglers, the old, young, and infirm etc.
I bet if Russia were to maintain pounding the Ukdonazis, soon ordinary Ukrainians will wake up and realize the fact that they have been greatly shafted by the US for using their people as agents to fight off Russia – they won’t let a single American and their supporters alive in all of Ukraine. Surprisingly, it seems even those heavily brainwashed Ukrainian citizens in western Ukraine are now realizing this truth which has cost them the autonomy of their once beautiful nation.
Hello Nightvision,
I’m looking for some information.
Was there any attack by the Russian VDV on Odessa? I didn’t see any news on such an attack but the Ukronazi supporters are talking about such an attack which failed.
Thank you for the excellent sitreps 👍👍👍
No, I don’t think so. Not that I know of. Sounds like ukronazi propaganda as usual
“So it seems according to this they do intend to put them on trial”
Good, then hopefully a long sentence helping rebuild. Hoping trials will start to wake the general populations up to the truth…..
“While British SAS go straight to Kiev to train the Nazis directly”
Would have thought these men, would have had more integrity, thought they were meant to be more intelligent than the average.
“U.S. also expands its intel sharing with Ukraine, and has stated it will help Ukraine in preparing strikes onto Crimea”
How can anyone doubt that this is a war between Russia and NATO in all but name. This is just another indicator the morons watching MSM don’t see. I guess the majority don’t care and really are pro Nazi as has been stated here a number of times. It’s something i resisted, but no longer can, it’s all very depressing and upsetting to realise we have not collectively learn from our past and our ancestors died for nought.
I hope that we survive this and i get a chance to visit Russia, move East and live in the multipolar part of the World.
Thumbs up.
I saw a BBC programme with a British Scientist in Africa sawing off the horns of an rhino, drilling a hole in the remaining flat piece and chipping it for surveillance, claiming it was to prevent the locals from poaching rhino and for the safety of the animal.
During the two year virus lock down of International travel and tourism it turned out poaching in Africa fell to a minimum, saying many of these British academics with, on the surface educated language and manners, turn out to be 100% ignorants and hypocrites, and the same goes thus for the society who hails and support them.
But its the same observation I have had. Polls saying 100 million Americans agree to nuke Japan again. The whole Europe backing a cocaine snorting idiot in Ukraine. Its all just too far out.
I think Russia is right, Nazi is a decease which need to be cured. Inferiority compensated with feeling racial superior.
So RT article is downplaying UAF losses from 35,000 to 23,000 soldiers?
Putin’s decision to intervene preventently has guaranted Russian independence, and consequently the putoff of the global empire of transhumanism and mass eugenics for at least a decade. The Russians were well aware that South Stream 2 will never pump a single m3. They went ahead to gain time. For the new offensive, there are 21 days left to the victory day parade 9 May, which is the biggest show of Russian patriotic propaganda. Something should happen during these 3 weeks so that Russian troops can lay down some ukronazi banners at the feet of Putin, which will be a glorious spectacle.
Thanx for the sitrep.
Man…looking back to february, when I had just a touch of hope, that it could be over in a few days, weeks… 🙄
Ladies and germs – prep Your gardens, and keep the gunpowder dry.
Slava gerojem RF!
…and RIP for the dead.
One very important phenomena during this was was revealed by Andrei Martyanov:
“Whenever combat contact happens between Russian forces and VSU (and Nazis) in the open or in the urban civilian areas which do not have civilians in them, combat performance of VSU drops dramatically and they run. When hiding behind civilian backs they do offer resistance. What a tactics, this one should make it into NATO combat manuals, with a special focus on using kindergarten kids as a good cover for armor. “
It probably is in the books already. But only will work in this special situation. I do not think the Russians will be so careful if there is a full out war with Nato.
@ Nightvision
Congrats on your SitReports, they are now read as such, are not punctuated with “confirmations of your analysis” or of your soothsayer qualities, they are more and more true to their nature, SitReports, period.
Your writing style is making us feel part of the “Army for the Denazification of the Planet,” as it should be.
Some snippets.
“…That would leave only the Azovstal factory because the other big news was that the Illych factory has completely fallen to our forces as well…”
“Our forces,” yes!
In our hearts we are part of this “Force” intending to denazify the planet, and we support it fully. I love the inclusiveness.
“…There’s still no word on the general strategy, as we’ve all seen rumors Russia would flood the factory, or etc…”
“The View” (https://m.vz.ru/) had a very detailed and important article on the architecture of the Azov factory, in which they pose several options for its 6 to 7 underground bunkers, one of them was flooding it by pumping water from the river. The option to be used depends on the intended goal re: Ukronazis. If the intention is to capture some of them alive, flooding will get them all out to the surface, from which they can be flush out the way “Somalia” battalion, Russian marines, and the Chechen brothers, have been doing it all along. Otherwise, Comrade Khinzal is always ready to fulfill its patriotic duties, bunker-boosting Ukronazis.
BTW, I wanted to bookmark that article, lost my chance, been looking for it ever since, at no avail. If you happen to come across that article, given you can search in Russian, I’d appreciate it if you share it. Thanks.
“…However, I leave the previous up because once in a while the Russian MOD has been known to jump the gun and I personally haven’t seen the on-the-ground indication yet that Primorski has fully been cleared, although there were several indications it was very close, so maybe it is true…
Good enough, better to err on the side of caution. As we have learned, Russia’s communication skills are not the best, though we can always count on them telling the truth. Always. Look at Konanshenkov, there is not a bone in that man that can tell a lie.
“…My view has been that it won’t come until Mariupol is done, but with that said, they may begin it anyway because some reports indicate forces have already been disengaged from Mariupol and sent both north and towards Kherson because so few UAF remain in Mariupol, they don’t need a large force anymore…”
Russian operations are an enigma wrapped in a mystery, better to avoid the guessing game. According to “Military Chronicle,” there are six armies ready for the Phase B.
https://voenhronika.ru/publ/vojna_na_ukraine/ukrainskaja_armija_neset_ogromnye_poteri_na_donbasse_a_ved_shest_rossijskikh_armij_poka_dazhe_ne_vstupili_v_boj_16_aprelja_18_video/60-1-0-11911
The Ukrainian army is suffering HUGE LOSSES in the Donbas. But six Russian armies have not even entered the battle yet! April 16 (18 videos)
“…American experts point to the creation of a large Russian grouping along the Izyum – Severodonetsk border (three armies in the first echelon, two in the second). Another army closes the Kharkiv direction…
———————————
“…There is video evidence of this now that’s emerged where UAF is mostly operating in the style of ISIS ‘technicals’ where they mount a machine gun on a pickup truck and drive around the countryside in search of fast ambush opportunities on RF rearguards, supply lines etc., but unlike ISIS they’re armed with tons of ATGMs and Manpads…
In less than two months, 404’s army has gone from being a “modern” army trained to Western standards, to a Mad Max broken army in utter disarray, fighting through groups of marauders, more cannon fodder than anything else, incapable of mounting an offensive, condemned to defend their stationary positions while hopelessly seeing the depletion of their ammo, food, medicines, water, etc., a slow pathway to death.
It was funny to see the selling of a Ukrainian APC to the Russians, Ukros demanded payment in rubbles, not hryvnas. You might have come across that video, have no idea whether is true or a montage.
“…One Russian T-72B3 came home to base last night near Izyum having been reportedly struck as many as 2 or 3 times by Javelins and Nlaws, but its Kontakt-5 reactive armor had no problem shrugging them all off.
Either the Swedes/British are getting cheated by their MIC (they already learned from the US MIC), or the Russians are superb at building tanks.
“Two American Switchblade UAVs (“Flipknife”) attacked the positions of Russian tankers, but did not cause any damage. Apparently, the operators are just beginning to master the new technique.” (reported by the reliable frontline correspondent Sasha Kots)
Take this news with a grain of salt, it will need confirmation given the source, according to avia-pro.net, the US is ready to approve the “sale” of MQ9-Reaper drones to 404.
https://avia-pro.net/news/ssha-rassmatrivayut-peredachu-ukraine-udarnyh-bespilotnikov-mq-9-reaper
US considers transfer of MQ-9 Reaper attack drones to Ukraine
“Now we have drones ready for immediate transfer. With the support of the US government, these drones could be in the hands of the Ukrainian military in a matter of days.”Mark Brinkley said.
General Atomics noted that they already have experience in quickly delivering the MQ-9 to other countries.
“In the past, we have worked with the US government to send MQ-9 Reapers to a partner country in less than 30 days. The logistic footprint can be minimal and also much smaller than what people associate with the US UAV logistic footprint.”Brinkley said.
———————————–
Phase 2 is at the gates, and besides the annihilation by surrendering/destruction of the Ukrainian troops in the boiler, we know nothing about the Russian objectives, no more than the possible axis of attack/troops positioning, given their current location.
If their methodical, deliberate pace during Phase 1 is a harbinger of what Phase 2 could bring, we could qualify Russia’s operation as a “Special Political-Military Operation.” Russia’s restraint, obvious for the Ukrainian population in occupied towns and villages, is having positive consequences, with entire areas going “to the Russian side.” It appears more and more Russia’s military operation is the means for a clear political objective, liberating Ukrainians from the nazi brainwashing, and allowing them to make decisions re: their future country.
For many Ukrainians, now with access to Russian news/TV, getting informed about the events of Mariupol, which has been denied to them for years, has been an eye opener. They have a counterbalance to the brainwashing, and don’t want to go back to 404, being presented with the opportunity to opt out of it for greener pastures. Ukraine has ceased to exist as a nation-state, just that it will happen in such a way, they will only realize it once the Dnipro’s eastern region has been consolidated and “gone” Russian.
For Russia, this is an epic of historic proportions, a giant leap into a deconstruction of the “NWO” and their “Full Spectrum Dominance” policies of global domination. The building of a nazi puppet state next to Russia, was a fatal mistake for the US/NATO, driven as they are by their Russophobia. They left Russia with no choice but to destroy those who were hellbent on her annihilation.
Bandera’s doctrine, according to Evgeny Spitsyn, were two,
“…First, it is the doctrine of racial nationalism (integral) with the construction of a pure Ukrainian Reich. Secondly: the destruction of the Muscovite-Asian Empire (just like that). The war with Russia and its dismemberment is almost a prayer for them…
————————————-
Well, the nazis prayers have been answered, in reverse. Have to be careful with your prayers, they don’t always come the way you want to.
Lone Wolf
PS: What do you know about this,
https://avia-pro.net/news/v-sankt-peterburge-prostilis-s-general-mayorom-frolovym-geroicheski-pogibshem-na-ukraine
Having heard of any Russian top brass killed in Ukraine. Do you know anything about it? Thanks, and thanks for your SitReports, they fill a hole in the infosphere.
Something that has slipped down the memory hole, unsurprisingly, given more recent events, imo, is the successful thwarting of the attempted Coup d’etats in both Byelorussia and Kazakhstan. Unremarked these days, but important nonetheless. Had those two Jigsaw pieces been repainted in NATO colours, things would be very different with three borders to defend…my twopence worth.
Azov Nazis definitely do not want to die like Samurai for their ideals. That is not Nazi way. They however might choose death preferable to life in Russian max security prison. We will ser. As far taking Azovstal, as somebody remarked…Number of exits/entrances is probably huge, but in principle Russians can probably discover them all. After truce expires, these entrances can simply be collapsed with explosives. Or tear gas can be pumped in huge quantities through ventilation shafts. Gas masks will work only for few hours. Maybe city waste slurry can be directed below ground….There are ways to save Russian lives….
Soloviev on Russia 1 TV channel states – “the army has completed its task”, we should start to withdraw troops…
It’s unbelievable.
This man looks like a security treat to Russia, and despite that, he is allowed to speak to millions.
Intel Slava Z :
🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡ Russia had sent an ultimatum to the Office of the President of Ukraine that if the surrender of Azovstal was not agreed, the plant would be razed to the ground with vacume bombs. Everyone will be buried alive, and the choice of what to do is up to Zelensky.
Maybe Russia will start asking for surrender (not just in Mariupol), letting Ze say “no” repeatedly (talk about good propaganda besides the good humanitarian goal). Ukraine should surrender to avoid a needless loss of life, and so much suffering, when they have zero chance of victory anyway. Ze is following the Hitler ‘never surrender’ war script. Hitler fulfilled his own order and refused to escape from Berlin. Hitler was a fanatical soldier; Zelensky is a comedian and a dancer, and he has a family. He should think of the families of his soldiers before following the fanatical example of Hitler.
Also, it is odd when someone believes everything is up to him. Here at least up to half of everything depends on the Russians too. Have the Russians decided that they will win in Ukraine no ifs or buts? Anyone who says “no” is dreaming.
No, Ze does not become King of the World, better than Fred Astaire, funnier than Bill Cosby (Cosby was a real comedian if you ever had the luck to see him in Vegas). Does he stay in a bunker like Hitler? Should anyone think so? I don’t think so. It’s more likely that Ze will say that every General finally became a “traitor” and that it’s time for him to flee. It’s the natural conclusion after this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPT4oGTOHRo
” Hitler …… refused to escape from Berlin”
This like the 6 million has not proof. In fact there is very weighty evidence that he did in fact escape.
NYT headline: “Zelensky signals that Russian forces are close to taking Mariupol”. It says, “The port city of Mariupol was on the cusp of falling on Sunday.”
Mariupol is lost forever to Ukraine. Zelensky is again basking in the war fog and confusion. He is directly responsible for the loss of Mariupol, the Donbass, the war – for everything.
Here is a good technical analysis of the Moskva sinking explaining the technical aspects of the ship and the neptune missile systems.
https://youtu.be/4-JLElq2aYc
Making the huge assumption that it was hit by Neptune missiles
From Intel Slava Z just minutes ago:
🇺🇦 ❗️Kyiv banned negotiations on surrender, ordering the Nazis of “Azov” * to shoot anyone who wants to lay down their arms – Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
and
🇷🇺🇺🇦❗️ The Kyiv regime, according to radio interception, forbade negotiations on surrender, ordering the Azov Nazis to shoot on the spot anyone who wanted to lay down their arms among Ukrainian military personnel and foreign mercenaries.
In total, according to the Ukrainian servicemen who surrendered, up to 400 foreign mercenaries are now surrounded on the territory of the Azovstal enterprise as part of the Ukrainian group. Most of them are citizens of European countries, as well as Canada.
In case of further resistance, all of them will be destroyed.
Well, I don’t know what is happening for real but it is happening now.
From vicktop55
⚡️ Looks like the surrender of Azovstal has been agreed………………At 05:00 (Moscow time), continuous communication is established between the Russian and Ukrainian sides for the mutual exchange of information;
from 05:30 (Moscow time), militants of nationalist battalions and foreign mercenaries – on the one hand, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation together with the military formations of the DPR – on the other hand, declare a “regime of complete silence” and guarantee its strict observance;
the actual beginning of the “silence regime”, this is 06:00 (Moscow time), is indicated by both sides by raising flags: from the Russian side – red, from the Ukrainian side – white around the perimeter of Azovstal.
from 06:00 to 13:00 (Moscow time) – the exit of all Ukrainian armed units and foreign mercenaries without exception, without any weapons and ammunition.
/ Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation/
It has been refused by Kiev at 06.00 am.No surprise here.
“It has been refused by Kiev at 06.00 am.No surprise here.”
As you say expected and by some, including but not restricted to the opponents, welcomed.
Yeah, when I checked back to vicktop55, this was the next.
I did not find confirmation of the fact of the agreement about the surrender of militants. Is only a proposal fro m the Russian side that the militants at Azovstal lay down their arms. Therefore, I am deleting this post. There will be a confirmation, then I will write.
Earlier, I actually thought that the fighters stuck inside Azovstal might surrender, that their desire for self preservation might kick in. It looks like I was wrong.
I have some advice for these fighters: Ignore what Kiev says and kill the Azov terrorists that are preventing you from surrendering. If you choose not to surrender then the only choice will be vacuum bombs or gravity bombs…….and the choice will not be yours. You will die for nothing. Your death will be meaningless.
@ Anton Gorbatow
Your death will be meaningless.
—————————
Their lives were too, the moment they embraced nazism. Humanity does not need those people, there is enough evil to go around. The Chechen brothers, when calling for surrender, yell, “We don’t want to kill you, we are here to kill the shatan.” The nazis are possessed by the shatan, hence….
Lone Wolf
Those, who want to lay down arms, could first use that guns against Azovites. I mean now they have nothing to loose.
BTW. It reminds me the last order given by Hitler to general Paulus. Lil Ze is very into historical reenactment.
Apparently Kiev thinks of this lot as worth more dead than alive, though reputedly tough soldiers.
Probably the negative attention of having them fall into Russian hands alive would be extremely compromising to Kiev’s war effort.
None of them came out of the factory and ceasefire is over. All those Nazis and mercenaries will face hail of bombs.
As Slim Pickens said, as he rode the bomb down in Dr Strangelove: “Them damn Rooskies!!!”
This is wonderful news.
I hope Mariupol and the rest of the Ukraine gets cleaned up, big time.
We have a world that needs serious mending, and I am hoping that Vlad “The Invader (sorry: correctly: Intervener) gets the job done lickety-split.
This needs to happen, as the US (read British, as the US Government is actually a British Territorial Government will waste everyone under the sun to get what they want.
After all, war is good for the bottom line.
wonder how far the 100 T72 Polish tanks have got….any signs of delivery?
Z warns everyone to stock up on radiation treatment ills and build shelter cos…egging on the situation…..
Russia is willing to use nuclear weapons to bring a catastrophic end to its invasion of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky warned last night – as he urged the world to ‘prepare’ for the worst by stocking up on anti-radiation medicine and building air raid shelters. adding that the Russians ‘can use any weapon, I’m convinced of it’.
Darnyts’kyi, a suburb in south Kyiv, was among the first to be hit before dawn, when a tank repair factory was blown up, killing one.
Four cruise missiles were then fired on Lviv, which Ukraine intelligence says were shot down before they could inflict carnage.
But another Ukrainian was killed and 18 injured when a warship-launched missile rocked Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city. There was also a missile blitz on the port city of Mykolaiv, where a military vehicle workshop was destroyed, according to Russia, as well as intense shelling in Donbas, Mariupol and Luhansk, which is set to be the focus of Putin’s fresh offensive.
These Polish tanks doesn’t have any upgrade to their armour. As far I am concerned they have upgraded nightvision, optics and added digital displays for gunner and commander. That’s it. Survivability of these tanks is really low. They just send 100 steel coffins with fancy tv screens.
https://t.me/mig41/16527
Pretty interesting. Wooden pagan idol sculpture in Azov camp in Mariupol. It seems trivial, but there was a spate of books in the West in last 10 years, striving to give sense and orientation in society to “lost” young males. “Bronze age mindset/Live like a warrior” and like that.
It is not impossible such pagan ideology was deliberately chosen for Azov fighters (probably recruited from streets, broken families) by Western intelligence services as suitable. Azov had to work outside boundaries of empathy and decency, like supposed pagan warriors, as ìmagined on high school level (all the level you need). Christianity angle was not suitable as in Croatia against Serbs- most of Azov, save for Galizians, is orthodox as Donbass people are.
“Pagan”, actually a variant of naturalistic atheism, made popular gradually in late 20th century, with elements from marvel comics world, and later on videogames.
Also strongly influenced by ‘studies’ of primitive peoples of the past, as imagined by numerous pseudo-academics with an obsession for witchcraft as a ‘social phaenomenon’. Plenty of idolatry and superstition passing as an imaginary mankind’s ‘golden past’.
Expectedly, all under the usual theosophy frame-of-reference, and dubious practices.
Has anyone heard anything about the fate of the American General Cloutier? Surely if he is still at large it would be easy to squash the reports of his capture by now.
Does any one have any news from Gonzalo Lira? I mean he is off the line for like 48 hours from now. Now I am really worried about him. :(
Afraid not … his last post on Telegram was on Friday, and I don’t know if he has any other channel. It’s certainly worrying.
Thoughts arising concerning underground bunkers
1)ventilation shafts?
Or oxygen tanks?
2)escape tunnels?
DPR/MOD claimed full control over Primorsky District on Thursday, following the failed attempt by 200 Ukies to leave for AzovStal.
That does not mean the end of hostilities there. Sniper teams led by the committed remain behind. Their task is to kill the unwary. They last until they kill/wound someone. At which point their lair is spotted, and they are destroyed. It is most likely that several hundred of these remained behind in Primorsky District.
It is also most likely that hundreds more remain behind elsewhere in Mariupol. This does not convey control of the city to them. DPR forces continually comb the city for survivors, which are escorted out to refugee centers where they can be housed and fed, so the platoons assigned to a neighborhood know who is there, who belongs there, and who doesn’t. DPR forces are now using police dogs to assist them in locating holdouts.
Given the fact that there is no food, water, electricity, or gas in the city…. except at military canteens feeding the troops, it is most unlikely Ukie holdouts can survive for more than a few weeks, until they simply must leave or starve. They are already attempting to exfiltrate dressed as women, with many caught.
Regardless, the main reason for taking Mariupol was a logistical one. The rail/highway corridor through it was/is essential for supplying a CORPS level force centered near Kherson. This force will be the southern pincer of the double envelopment. The northern pincer is being organized south of Izyum.
The reason for today’s truce, ostensibly for humanitarian reasons, is two fold.
a. to provide R&R for the forces that stormed the city, by rotating them out of theatre, replacing them with fresh troops.
b. to sow dissention within those be-seiged in AzovStal, in hopes most surrender, or they kill each other.
You will know the success of taking Mariupol when reports filter in describing train loads of gear and men for the south pincer.
INDY
Language police corrections ;
sniper Teams led by DEADENDERS
Regardless, the main reason for LIBERATING Mariupol
:)
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
Well done “Nightvision”. This gets bums on seats so that the people who write under the name of “Saker” can sow the defeatism.
“…they found a bunch of spent Russian/Soviet legacy RPGs laying on the ground, while next to them was several western (NLAW/Javelin) units that were completely unused. You can figure out what this implies.”
“…they found a bunch of spent Russian/Soviet legacy RPGs laying on the ground, while next to them was several western (NLAW/Javelin) units that were completely unused. You can figure out what this implies.”
What it implies is written in every advertising piece for all those weapons. Every new itteration highlights problem of safety, meaning that everyone who uses those systems expose himself to enemy retaliation. Every new system claims it solved that problem, only to be demanted by reality.
I have never understood the overhype of professional armies. Actually as war goes on several months every survived conscript will become battle hardened fighter, most of highly motivated. Many of them likely better motivated than most mercenaries. Besides Armed Forces of conscripts have huge number of reserve, vital factor. Most of duties doesn’t need 2-4 years training periods. Combination of 40% professionals and 60% of draftees could be rather good solution.
62 / 38 is supposedly the actual composition of the full Russian armed forces, but Putin chose to only use the 62% professional side for now. But honestly I mostly agree with your statement because, if you watch some footage of the Chechen wars, most of those were conscripts and yet you won’t find a single clip of them behaving with “poor morale” or poor skill or anything like that. Sure someone will say “yeah but Russia suffered tons of losses in the Chechen wars” but that’s not really the fault of conscript usage. It was just the general state of disarray of the army after the fall of USSR and the hyper-liberalization and western-rape of the 90’s.
To be honest, the whole “conscripts are terrible” meme is just a fake propaganda created by the U.S. as a headline grabbing demonization of Russia. There was even that famous quote from a guy in the DPR a few weeks ago where he said that most conscripts on the frontlines (in the DPR) within 3-4 days maximum become fully hardened soldiers.
Phase 2 Donbass Cauldron will likely take 4 weeks after the feint was withdrawn from Kiev. Very roughly
1 week withdrawl
2 weeks Retrain and resupply
1 week move into position
So maybe in mid-May for start of full Phase 2. Until then, it’s pinning down Kiev units inside Cauldron plus securing area around Dnipro from a Kiev counterattack ( rear of peacekeeping forces )
Don‘t expect a quick reduction of the Cauldron – my guess is oeacekeepers will be occupied with Cauldron operation until end July begin August.
The earliest peacekeepers will be able to move into phase 3 is early Augudt
Just saw a new tidbit that said the Pentagon now claims Russia will begin Phase 2 by the end of this weekend or early week, i.e. in a few days. Last week the Pentagon said Phase 2 will start “in about a week” so at least they’re keeping consistent. Let’s see if they’re right
NV
Thanks for posting the Pentagon estimate of first week of may versus My estimate of Middle of May.
We‘ll see if an old retired guy sitting at home reasearching on his iPhone (me)?is a better Analyst than dozens of highly paid Pentagon experts with trillions of electronic data points. LOL
From Intel Slava Z
🇷🇺🇺🇦❗️❗️The ultimatum for militants blocked at Azovstal has expired. The corridors were closed.
Methodical work began on the destruction of the Banderaites who had settled in the industrial zone of the plant. Russian airforce have started bombing Azovstal
From Readovka
❗️ Срок действия ультиматума (https://t.me/readovkanews/31135) для боевиков, заблокированных на «Азовстали», (https://t.me/opersvodki/3442)истек — гумкоридоры закрылись
Между тем уже появляются кадры, снятые недалеко от «Азовстали» — российская авиация начала наносить удары по объекту.
The ultimatum (https://t.me/readovkanews/31135) for the militants blocked at Azovstal (https://t.me/opersvodki/3442) has expired – the humanitarian corridors have closed
Meanwhile, footage shot not far from Azovstal is already appearing – Russian aviation has begun strikes against the facility.
……….
I did not check any other sources and I hope I’m not passing on false information.
According to this site, bombing has begun:
https://voenhronika.ru/publ/vojna_na_ukraine/mariupol_bombardirovshhiki_tu_22m3_nachali_tochechnye_kovrovye_bombardirovki_boevikov_azova_v_promzone_polden_17_aprelja_18_video/60-1-0-11917
The refusal by the Ukrainian Government to let its own soldiers from Azovstal surrender and live, showed its true evil nature. It is against any humane practice of a normal government, a timely yard stick to measure the morality of Western Mass News Media. (With their deafening silence, west MNM can’t run and hide this time)
I don’t understand the absurdity of withholding the identity of these so-called mercenaries and NATO assets when by exposing these rats to the light of day, immediately, would have a much more powerful effect. Who gives a damn about “trials” when the court of world opinion has been corrupted by the MSM. Make them perp walk. Stop letting these cockroaches scurry for cover.
I am going to make a prediction, right after Russia bombs Azovstal with great severity, the few Azov rats that survive (if any) will come out of their hole with their hands up and want to surrender but it will be too late.
These Azov skinheads, besides being evil, are dumb as shit. To get fooled by a nobody like Zelensky is a sign imbecility. In this case, ignorance really does equal death.
«Personally I don’t see the point of bombing now, unless with bunker busters, as we know Azov troops are secured deep in the basement, but there may have been some strategic positions to hit for now, to soften them up before the next phase of the Azovstal assault.»
If they cannot be resupplied, what’s the hurry? Same for the whole Donbas army. Unless the RF military is worried about the new citizen militia regiments being formed in the west, armed by NATO countries; but being poorly trained and out of shape, they will be just cannon fodder. As long as the RF can keep smashing the C&C and supply lines of the ukrainian military, there is little problem.
well there’re some lines of thought that Russia needs to begin the offensive ASAP because spring bloom is coming which will cover large swaths of Donbass in foliage/greenery as the trees all blossom and this will provide huge amounts of cover for AFU forces, creating a Vietnam-like situation (which is the reason U.S. used agent orange, to defoliate all the forests). And since AFU is already operating in the manner of ISIS / Vietcong at this point with their entire switch to exclusively insurgency tactics, there’s a line of thought that says Russia needs to move fast. They won’t necessarily finish all of Phase 2 by this time, but at least they can get a huge headstart on it and cover a lot of territory before everything blooms. But my line of thinking is they can’t begin until Mariupol falls and all the troops tied up there can be freed and redeployed to the main theatres of Phase 2 operation. So this is the conundrum as I see it – why they can’t just sit and wait while Azovstal starves. Who knows the amount of food stores they prepared down there, they may be able to last months for all we know. And also the longer Russia waits the more the West arms Ukrainian reserves in the west of the country etc etc.
Nightvision – wishing you all the very best on this Palm Sunday!
@ Nightvision
Spot on, Nightvision.
I read Blissex post on my iPad and his “what’s the hurry?” deserved an answer in a hurry, rushed to my desktop to answer it, got distracted by some new videos about Ukraine, and you beat me to it. The points you made crossed my mind, and then some. The insurgency east of the Dnieper is not going so well, the “Volksstorm” are not so enthusiastic about dying after realizing the forces they will have to reckon with. My concern is the creation of a “Fortress Ukraine” in the west, headquarted in Lvov, fed by a ratline coming from bordering NATO countries, which continues to grow exponentially by the hour, as the US/NATO MIC decided to feed Ukraine old war materiel and ordnance, to keep their factories going. Military advisers, mercenaries, all sort of useful idiots, are coinciding in western Ukraine. SAS is now training the Ukro army.
I disagree on the issue of “finishing up Mariupol” before launching Phase 2 in full, which you mentioned in your SitReport. It has already started, positioning and artillery duels have been going on for at least a couple of weeks. After the bombing today, Mariupol is going to need mopping up troops, not a significant amount of them will be held back for combat duty. There might be other preparations that need to be in place before the offensive kicks off. About a week ago I read that weather was not propitious, and the time window was from 3 to 10 days. We are still within the 10 days period.
So, yes, there is an urgency of now, for Phase 2, not to hurry, but to be on time with parallel developments that need to be checked before they grow into a greater danger for Russia.
Lone Wolf
Agent orange and napalm is greenys best friend
From the The Gateway Pundit (American Site):
Russia Continues to Grind Down the Ukrainian Military and Fuel Resources
“Here is video of Russian truck and tank columns moving around Kharkov. Where are the videos of the Ukrainian forces attacking and destroying these columns? Do you doubt for a minute that Ukraine would be sharing such material widely if it existed? That is the dog that is not barking. Russia is surrounding and ready to destroy the fragmented Ukrainian Army. Unlike Mariupol, most of these battles will be in open country where the Ukrainians will have little protection from drones, bombers and artillery. Tanks and troops will do the clean up once strong points are eliminated.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/04/russia-continues-grind-ukrainian-military-fuel-resources/
Suriyak on Twitter is finally talking about Popasna and the fighting there. I’ve been asking about Popasna for a few days. Why? NASA FIRMS data shows a high level of thermal anomalies there. Same for the Primorski / port area–thermal anomalies there when everyone was talking about the two steel plants (which did also show thermal anomalies). Not all thermal anomalies are ongoing battles. But NASA FIRMS is worth looking at. To start, try:
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;d:2022-04-12..2022-04-14,2022-04-12;l:noaa20-viirs,viirs,modis_a,modis_t;@38.1,47.0,9z
Interesting article in VT, forecasting Phase 2 will kick off in two days. Both armies are doing reconnaissance and probing along the front; Russian troops are ready, rested and supplied, reserves are at the ready waiting at the border; Russia has bombed logistics and military infrastructure around Dnipro the Ukros were planning to use for the offensive; US/NATO are warning Ukraine Russia will be massively using Aerospace Forces.
Ukrainians have gone into the rabbit hole, not different from German nazis, and Arestovich, adviser to Zec, heads a cult called the “Chernobaevka Witnesses Sect” that is attaching mystical meanings to the upcoming battle, the “Donbass Arc Battle,” which, according to the cult followers, “in a few days will probably become the largest and even the bloodiest in the new millennium.”
https://vk.com/wall-93188324_109597?lang=en
————————————————————————
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2022/04/17/us-tells-kiev-to-withdraw-surrender-before-russia-destroys-its-massive-eastern-army-in-donbas/
US Tells Kiev to Withdraw/Surrender before Russia Destroys its Massive ‘Eastern’ Army in Donbas
Sourced from Russian Independent Media
SVPressa: Insiders who are part of the office of President (OP) Zelensky report that in the very near future – within two days – the battle of the Donbas Bulge will begin, which will determine the outcome of the special operation.
This, they say, was told to the Kiev regime not only by NATO intelligence, but also by the mainstream Western media, including Reuters. The news agency writes that Russian troops are ready for an offensive in the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions almost this weekend. Like, stock up on popcorn and sit comfortably in front of the TV.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that the Biden administration has decided to significantly increase the amount of intelligence it will provide to the UAF. Say, this will allow not only to win in the Donbass, but also in the future to recapture the Crimea.
It looks like the Yankees are trying to cheer up the Kyiv regime on the eve of the decisive battles. However, according to Zelensky, instead of “valuable advice”, he would like to receive money from the allies in the amount of seven billion euros per month. But, as they say, he received in response: “The muzzle will not crack?”.
So, according to the information coming from the “square” information, at least five significant factors point to a quick denouement in the LDNR and adjacent Ukrainian regions.
Firstly, to the south of Izyum, reconnaissance groups, both Ukrainian and Russian, became more active, moreover, it almost comes to hand-to-hand combat, so often they collide with each other. According to analysts of the Zhovto-Blakit General Staff, “The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation determines the targets for the fire shaft in order to cover with a powerful artillery strike the defenders of the Independence”.
Secondly, on the northern and southern faces of the Donbas arc, according to NATO sources, rather large groups of the RF Armed Forces have been formed, including from units withdrawn from the Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy regions. The “shock fists” had a good rest, put the equipment in order and loaded up with ammunition to the eyeballs. Not only do the soldiers have combat experience and know the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they are also motivated to win after the brutal reprisals against Russian prisoners of war.
Thirdly, in the border areas of Russia, the concentration of powerful reserves has been completed, which will be brought into battle after the breakthrough of the fronts. This means that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to count on the success of blows to the side of the “pincers” directed towards each other. The occupied territories will be guarded not by separate checkpoints, as was the case near Kiev, but by echeloned barriers.
Fourthly, the RF Armed Forces are continuously launching missile strikes along the Dnieper-Krivoy Rog line, destroying the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and control centers. In particular, the authorities of the Dnieper (Dnepropetrovsk) recognized the fact of the complete destruction of the military infrastructure.
Fifth, the Yankees and allies are seeing an unprecedented concentration of Russian fighter, ground attack and bomber aircraft on nearby airfields. The talking heads of the “Nenka” warn “Ze” and Co. that it is the Russian Aerospace Forces that will become the decisive factor in the upcoming operation. During the first phase of the special operation, there were flowers – berries in front.
At the same time, it should be noted that the number of members of the “Chernobaevka Witnesses Sect”, controlled by the fake-method Arestovich , has indeed increased, including in Russia. All this gives false hope to “Ze” and Co., that here, in the Donbass, the APU will succeed. Meanwhile, a number of senior officials in the General Staff of the Banderstadt called the maneuver of the RF Armed Forces to withdraw troops from the Kiev and Chernihiv regions “tactics of luring out” Zhovto-Blakit forces. By the way, many columns of military equipment, transferred from the Ukrainian capital near Kharkov, were crushed by Russian aviation on the march.
Recall, according to the statement of the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Banderstadt Anna Malyar , “part of the units that defended the capital have been transferred to the borders of the Dnepropetrovsk and Donetsk regions, where decisive battles will take place.”
Today, the situation is as follows: “Ze” ordered to block Russian troops near Barvenkovo at any cost in order to preserve the corridor with Kramatorsk, which is the key to Severodonetsk and Lysichansk. Another insurmountable fortified area, according to the plan of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, should be Avdiivka, which is directly adjacent to the Donetsk airport.
Local patriots from all social networks excitedly tell each other that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are concentrating the main efforts to deliver a flank attack on the Russian group of troops in the Kharkov region. Moreover, every citizen knows about the plan of the General Staff of Bandershtat in the “nenka”.
It turns out that the defenders of the independence will hold back the Russian strike with the help of three light brigades of paratroopers and motorized infantry, and four more brigades (4th, 17th tank and 92nd mechanized) from the Kiev and Chernihiv regions are being transferred to the three brigades in the Kharkov region (72 -I and 93rd mechanized, 10th mountain assault and 46th air assault), which should strike at the flank of the Russian grouping of troops in the Izyum region.
Arestovich also disperses the information that a real fortress has been created from Pavlograd, with powerful reserves, with a large amount of ammunition and weapons. Say, here everything will be “cooler” than in Mariupol. Like, everything is so serious that you can not be afraid.
Kyiv is preparing HIMARS MLRS strikes against military airfields near Voronezh, Kursk, Sakami and MillerovoKyiv is preparing HIMARS MLRS strikes against military airfields near Voronezh, Kursk, Sakami and MillerovoEven the Pentagon is surprised: why has Russia still not lifted a finger to disrupt the supply of its weapons to Ukraine?
Zhovto-blakitnye mass media “delight” the people with good news. As Ukrainska Pravda writes, the “square” receives more and more weapons from Western countries every day and prepares the territory of Donbass for defense. In this circuit, “time is playing against the Kremlin.” Naturally, the unblockade of the remnants of “Azov” * in Kyiv has already been forgotten. True, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine comments on the situation a little differently: “The enemy continues to deliver missile and bomb strikes on the infrastructure.”
In turn, the Pentagon recommends that “Ze” and Co. withdraw all artillery from the defense line in open areas to large cities and at the same time create mobile groups of suicide bombers who will try to “sting” the Russian troops moving forward across the steppe as painfully as possible. The Yankees are strongly advised to transfer part of the troops from Kharkov to the second defensive redoubt in order to use them to strike at the flanks of the Russian troops when they surround the Donbass group.
Zelensky, in turn, is swaggering, like, he remembered that on the first day of the special operation, the “powerful ones” sympathized and were not sure that the Ukrainians would survive. In his next video message, he said: “I was advised to give up.”
It is clear why this is being done: firstly, to show that Kyiv is independent in its decisions, although even in the “nenka” everyone says that “Ze” is an American puppet, and, secondly, the United States is insured against the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they say, “we told you.”
* The images of the chevrons of the Azov battalion (regiment) were recognized in Russia as an extremist court decision dated 11/30/2015 and included in the Federal List of Extremist Materials (p. 3269).
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Lone Wolf
@Lone Wolf
Thank you for such a detailed report! So much to read and take in. I always look for your posts.
Please excuse my ignorance, what is the Nenka?
Anyone else think the standoff with the goons under the Azovstal steel plant is being done on purpose and was setup on purpose to try and lure RF into using chemical and/or tactical nuclear weapons?
Seems like it would be an easier decision to use such weapons in the middle of a giant industrial area compared to say the middle of a city. Especially on a heavily fortified target with not a ton of great options on how to get the people out from underneath.
Also recently read an article about the catacombs under Ukraine and apparently they are the biggest in the world. Wonder if there is any access to them from this area. Mainly read about the ones under Odessa, which is quite a ways off from here.
Anyway hope saner heads prevail. Appreciate these threads. God bless…
Dunno anything about the Azovstal connecting to wider catacombs but I can confirm that DPR already has confirmed there are trenches with underground tunnels that are kilometers long that the AFU has dug beneath many Donbass cities and fortified zones of theirs, such as in Marinka (SW corner of Donetsk) where AFU has setup a major impenetrable fortress. They have tunnel systems (just like ISIS in Syria and elsewhere) which can connect to different parts of the city etc.
I am hoping that Russia will put the foreign “mercenaries” up on public display. The US and other countries will have a lot of explaining to do. Hopefully; the captured agents will include Leautenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, the Ukrainian immigrant who initiated a coup against the President of the United States.
By the way, in the video of the most famous ambush of Russian tanks by Ukrainians armed with Javelin missiles, all but one of the tanks drove away.
Operation Z: Military commissars of the Russian Spring
‼️Western media publish the first photos of the burning cruiser Moskva
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/8444
We discussed whether to publish them or not. In any case, they are already flying around the web.
This is our history – the last minutes of the proud guards missile cruiser “Moskva” …
A picture from a nearby ship.
❗️According to our assessment, the photos have a high degree of reliability: shots from the stern.
We remind you that the Ministry of Defense said in the morning that the ship was moving, in the evening it said that it could not reach.
That ship seems to have been struck by something. It looks like a big part of that side is “open”.