By Nightvision for the Saker Blog
What can we expect next?
The most likely immediate repositionings will be as follows:
-The VDV forces in the Kiev east bank (western side) region and Guards Tank Army forces in Chernuhiv region will likely be redeployed to the Izyum axis, as some of them are already and have been doing for days. It’s most convenient to do this as they stay in the same general northern front region, and many of the units are from the same military groupings: for instance the Western Military District’s elite 1st Guards Tank Army, which as I understand it was the main force behind the thrusts in the east of Kiev, the Sumy – Okhtyrka – to Brovary line, will likely move to reinforce the Izyum offensive since the 6th CAA that’s reportedly operating there is also from the ‘Western Military District’ under the same command, so these units will likely consolidate by district.
Meanwhile in the south, the units operating on the western side of Mariupol all appear to be from the famed 58th army from Vladikavkaz of the Southern Military District and will likely join their brethren in the Zaporizhzhia direction where other elements of the 58th are advancing — once Mariupol is freed up. Since those Mariupol units are not under the same sub-command as the Kherson groupings, I can assume they won’t be redeployed in the Kherson direction after the fall of Mariupol but rather towards the push that’s currently happening around Velyka Novosilka that I reported on last time.
I’ve commented recently that the specific TOEs and OOBs were hard to follow since the demise of Dragon-First-1, the famed Russian cartographer who was reportedly asked by the Kremlin several weeks ago to stop making his maps as they were OVERLY detailed and showed Russian/Ukie troop dispositions a little too well for their comfort. But now other western OSINT experts have taken up the mantle. One such U.S. military expert has created a brand new interactive map that shows unit dispositions all over the country. Of course it demands the usual caveats, being from an anti-Russian source, BUT it can give us a few useful pieces of information.
The most significant of these is that, I have counted every single brigade and BTG listed on the map and have come out with a startling find that correlates exactly with what I’ve been saying for a while, and have written in detail about in the last report. Namely: there appears to be only about 50-60 total Russian BTGs in Ukraine. Considering that a Russian BTG is listed as having an estimated 600-800 men, this would amount to 50,000 – 60,000 troops in total deployment. The author himself has stated these are all the confirmed groups in the country. You can check for yourself, every unit is listed typically as either regiment or brigade. A regiment is supposed to have around 1,000 men. A Russian brigade is typically composed of 2 BTGs but on the map if you click each ‘brigade’ the exact disposition is given, and many of them say 1 BTG while others are 2 BTG. And yes, the ‘expert’ behind this new map has stated that he believes Russian total BTGs is much less than was advertised, and he is a fully pro-western ‘analyst’. He believes Russia originally started with maybe in the ~80 BTGs range, but of course conveniently he never managed to track any of those missing 30 or so, and in fact attributes them to having been destroyed, since the current operative ‘narrative’ amongst the completely lost western “OSINT armchair analyst” crowd is that Russia has lost 20-30 BTGs – an extrapolation of the laughably inflated “official figures” from Kiev that list Russian losses as 30,000 KIA, etc. Like I said, it’s quite convenient that those ‘destroyed’ phantom BTGs were in fact never tracked or witnessed in theater by the experts, and the ones that ARE being tracked just so perfectly happen to fall into the 50 BTG range.
What’s interesting is that, prior to the onset of a major propaganda campaign on the eve of the military operation, when the CIA had to go into full fear-mongering mode, even sources like CNN were reporting the following last year: “In April and September this year, Russia pulled than 50 battalion tactical groups to our borders. Currently, 41 battalion tactical groups are in combat readiness around Ukraine and in the temporarily occupied Crimea. Of these, 33 stay on a permanent basis and eight have been additionally transferred to Crimea.”
This sounds remarkably similar to the troop disposition the military experts tracking every single unit in the theater are seeing. It seems the much vaunted “180 BTGs” bogeyman was all hype and propaganda.
More and more experts are now starting to backtrack and also opine that Russia might be using way less forces than initially suspected. It seems western experts will be doing a lot of face-saving and backtracking in the coming days as they realize that Russia still has lots of reinforcements left to inject into the various fronts. And by all accounts it has been doing so for days, as plenty new videos show: https://www.bitchute.com/video/sdAP9WtbaFFD/
A convoy of 50 vehicles was moving south of Minsk along the R-23 highway, one of which was an S-300 launcher. Reasons are unclear pic.twitter.com/pLLHqJQc1J
— Spriter (@spriter99880) April 1, 2022
I’ve stated before that the U.S. has a major incentive in grossly inflating Russian BTG numbers so that the narrative of Russia expending all its forces and failing its objectives can be preserved.
-Here’s a new map showing the progress in Izyum. As reinforcements arrive here, we will likely see a two pronged attack both in the direction of Barinkove to the SW and Slavyansk in the SE. Today Ukr officially reported the complete loss of the south bank of Izyum, but they continue to bring reinforcements to this key battle and it is said that this will soon be the single biggest battle of all the current fronts as major forces are accumulating on both sides.
-Also, a report today has stated that: “🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡⚡Intelligence of the United States and Britain transmitted data to the Office of the President of Ukraine that the second stage of the Russian military campaign will begin within a week. Pentagon military analysts are confident that the attack on Nikolaev will begin simultaneously with the encirclement of the eastern front.”
This seems likely because Mariupol may fall in that time, particularly because another report from the UKR side stated that Mariupol was now certain to fall in a matter of days
and that pretty much the remaining forces have now retreated into the industrial areas or are pushed completely to the sea. New videos appear to attest to this as numerous missile strikes were recorded on the various industrial areas where Azov remnants are holed up:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/DDFU5BijWil2/
“Our source in the OP said that the Mariupol Defense Command informed the General Staff about the complete loss of control over the city, except for the industrial area, the Azovstal plant and the port.”
2 current maps:
And 2 more detailed/zoomed in: https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1510054234875731971
Other reports state: “The General Staff is transferring 15,000 troops from near Kyiv to the Dnieper to reinforce the eastern front. The special forces of the AFU and SSU were sent to Donbas yesterday. So its ~50.000 in Donbass, 40.000 were moved to dnepr + another 15000.”
The question is of course how proficiently will Kiev be able to transport the 15,000 reinforcements who have almost no types of military transports or armor left. It will likely be done in trickle fashion in civilians vehicles, ambulances, and DHL delivery trucks. Also, these reinforcements will likely not be able to get to the actual contact line of the Donbass, as Saker has mentioned numerous times that no man’s land is under a lot of heavy fire control and Russian air oversight. But they will likely mount 2nd and 3rd echelon defensive positions and reserves around the Dnieper, i.e. around Pavlograd area, and will be used as reserves for forces defending against Russia’s upcoming thrust from Izyum south-ward towards Barinkove, which will be the main northern ‘pincer’ to enclose the cauldron.
Onto a few other important updates.
-One of the big stories today is the infamous ‘maternity ward girl’ has in fact come forward. Named Marianne, it turns out she’s from the Donbass and has completely refuted the Ukrop propaganda. She states in her interview that not only was the maternity not “bombed” by any planes like the fakenews contends (it was “shelled”), but she recounts how Ukrop military stormed the maternity ward, stole all the patients’ food even after she told them they were for the pregnant women, didn’t tell anyone of any attacks and after the “attack”, conveniently the Ukrop soldiers appeared only minutes later already towing western photojournalists and basically used her as a “prop” despite her crying and repeatedly telling them to stop taking photos. In short, it appeared to be a rehearsed psyop event where the photographers were already waiting in the wings for the aftermath, and the pregnant showpiece was perfectly utilized as an object of orchestrated propaganda.
Her subtitled interview can be seen here: https://twitter.com/mission_russian/status/1510012837237825545
Quick summary from a telegram channel:
“Marianne says that there was no air raid:
“That is, our opinion was confirmed. They said it was a shell [of the Armed Forces].”
The woman says that after the start of the Russian special operation, she was unable to leave Mariupol – the authorities did not let people out.
According to the story of the blogger, the maternity hospital was occupied by the fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
“The military did not help in any way, they came one day and said: “Give me food.” They are told: “This is all for pregnant women.” And they took our food.”
Marianne confirmed that reporters showed up at the scene immediately after the explosion. When everyone was evacuated, she noticed that she was being filmed and asked to stop. The journalist left only after the men chased him away.”
Of course after shamelessly using her as a propaganda tool against her will, the Ukrainian twittersphere is now doing damage control, saying that she’s a ‘Russian POW’ and is being made to lie on camera.
-In other news: The West continues to pump out nonstop fake psyops about dead/fired/sacked/missing Russian generals, heart attacks, Putin enraged at being “misled” and all sorts of inventive cartoonish bottom of the barrel stuff. However, interestingly enough, it seems they are merely projecting what is in fact happening in their own tumultuous countries. Not only has Zelensky announced the firing of two traitor generals:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/zelenskyy-traitors-ukraine-war_n_6246c239e4b0587dee681a56
As this analyst said: @Tom_Fowdy 1h
Why should Zelensky fire two generals if Ukraine are winning? If this happened in Moscow the mainstream media would be parading it from a megaphone and saying it was evidence of an imminent collapse of Putin’s government.
But signs of disunity and cracks in the so-called ‘solid’ western ‘unity’ continue to appear:
“FVD denounces the invitation of President Zelensky to address the Dutch House of Representatives.
FVD denounces the invitation of President Zelensky to address the Dutch House of Representatives and will be absent during his speech and from the ensuing parliamentary debate”
“Zelensky’s planned speech to the Dutch House of Representatives represents a radical break with a democratic tradition that has existed for over 170 years. Never before in the history of Dutch democracy has a foreign head of state spoken in the House of Representatives.
There is a good reason for this: democratic decision-making in the Dutch parliament should be entirely independent, shielded from foreign influence and unhindered by foreign interests.”
And a new poll in Turkey asks who is to blame for the Ukraine crisis?
33.7% of Turks said Russians
48.3% said NATO
7.5% said Ukraine
So 55% believe Ukraine/NATO are to blame with only 33% blaming Russia.
https://twitter.com/p_zalewski/status/1509105527359479808
-On a related note, after getting decimated by Russian strikes in western Ukraine earlier in the month, the ‘Foreign Legion’ of Ukraine is no longer operating.
https://www.rt.com/news/553137-ukraine-stops-foreign-legion-recruitment/
Of course, keep in mind Russia’s official figures are that at least 180 foreign mercenaries were killed in that one strike near Lyvov alone, and 600+ foreign mercenaries total have been eliminated in the operation so far.
America itself continues to experience recruiting problems – it seems no one wants to join the army anymore and the U.S. has been forced to admit that they’re no longer able to hit recruitment goals.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/army-proposes-cut-troop-levels-under-1-million-first-time-20-years
https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2022/03/about-face-army-expects-shrink-next-year/363878/
Meanwhile U.S. training standards continue to plummet as high profile crash after crash occur on a regular basis. Yesterday an important Navy intelligence E-2D plane crashed off the coast of Virginia with at least one confirmed fatality. And I’ve recently highlighted how an F-22 just crashed in Eglin base in Florida last week, while only two weeks prior the F-35 that crashed in the South China Sea was finally dredged up, a U.S. Marine Osprey crashed during NATO exercises this month, killing 4-5, while a Navy F-18 also crashed two weeks ago in North Carolina.
-Some bad news I have to report. A Ukrainian reporter who visited the UKR base near Kharkov where the torture of Russian POWs occurred was said to find the remains of several charred bodies. This likely means that not only did the Ukrops torture and kill the one confirmed POW who was stabbed on video, but they likely disposed of the rest of them by burning them to death.
“On Monday, a well-known Ukrainian journalist, Yuri Butusov, published graphic video showing the charred remains of three men he identified as Russian soldiers, as Ukrainian forces recaptured the town of Malaya Rohan, outside Kharkiv, over the weekend.”
Here is the interesting response from this Ukrainian “journalist” at the bottom of the article:
“Update: April 1, 2022
Yuri Butusov, the editor of the Ukrainian news site Censor.net, has not yet responded to questions from The Intercept about the video he recorded in Malaya Rohan this week. On Friday, however, Butusov published an opinion article on his website in which he argued that “The Geneva Convention does not apply to detained Russian servicemen in Ukraine.”
“Ukraine is not obliged to take care of them and provide Red Cross access to them, since Putin did not declare war on Ukraine,” Butusov argued. The journalist, who created a stir in Ukraine a week before the Russian invasion by assaulting a pro-Russia politician during a live television debate, added that, in his view, “the Russians are not legally prisoners of war, but are terrorists.”
Secondly, I reported in an earlier article that Vladimir Shamanov, head of a Duma defense committee (and ex-general of great renown from the Chechen wars), had stated that the perpetrators of Russian POW tortures were “captured” by Spetsnaz. But in fact only a day later, two of the men he named, one nicknamed ‘Chile’, made a video from inside Kharkov mocking the politician and showing that they are quite alive and not captured.
If true, this is obviously a big embarrassment for Shamanov and the Russian political elite. Analysts on Telegram have debated whether he was fed wrong info or he himself decided to make the outrageous claim, we may never know, but it is very disappointing and shows that there is still some grave incompetence and corruption that at times hampers the Russian operation. Of course most of us doubted his announcement without video/photo proof of the captured perpetrators anyway.
-One last word for now on upcoming events. Many ‘analysts’ are predicting a long, very difficult road ahead in the Phase 2 clash for the Donbass Cauldron. Everyone knows that UKR forces are heavily entrenched along the contact line from Kramatorsk down to Donetsk and so far the advances have been slow on this account – and as such, many people assume they will continue to be slow. I believe they will be much faster than most people think, but only if the amount of reinforcements arrive that I hope will be the case. Kiev too is sending reinforcements but they will not be of the ‘entrenched’ variety and most of them will likely serve as reserves in the rearguard, and for the battles at Izyum etc.
As I said elsewhere, advances have been slow against the main entrenched line because that line has not yet been flanked or encircled, it is only being attacked head-on by DPR forces west and north of Donetsk city, in the areas of Kamyanka, Verkhnotoretske, etc. But keep in mind, Russian forces have advanced to within a very close proximity of that main entrenched line. They are just south of the N15 highway where they stand to assault the Marinka – Kurakhove line from the south. Once that line is broken with reinforcements, then the main trench system and first echelon defense of the Ukrops will be flanked and under fire control from flanks and rears. This will lead to a multiplication factor of force which will cause their rapid collapse in a snowballing fashion, because for the first time in the conflict they will be hit from multiple sides, supply and retreat lines cut, etc. Remember, if that new interactive unit map I included at the top is accurate, the Russian force disposition in Zaporizhzhia around the southern contact line of the cauldron is extremely low. There appears to be only 3 motorized rifle regiments of about 5 BTGs total (as low as ~3200 troops) and a tank regiment of only 2 BTGs. This would be in the area of ~5000 total troops, which seems extremely low but even if you double that, as a precaution, that’s still extremely low for that entire huge front. That would basically be half a division to one very small division holding and advancing on an area that’s something like 15,000km2. So imagine what will happen once Mariupol frees up and (hopefully) other reinforcements are injected to the tune of at least another 15-30k. This would absolutely break the spine of Ukrainian defenses on this southern front of the cauldron. If 10k troops were gaining steadily around Velyka Novosilka and north of Volnovakha, then double or triple that amount should smash everything in their path.
And the other thing is, Russia might have had trouble in heavily urbanized regions like Kiev and its outskirts (which are heavily suburbanized) because not only does it create very narrow killzones where mechanized squads are sitting ducks, but Russia seemed to greatly limit its airpower for fear of hitting all the un-evacuated homes everywhere. This made it extremely difficult to fight. But in the Donbass region, where it’s comparatively de-urbanized, mostly huge expanses of flat fields, farmland, small villages, it will play to all of Russia’s strengths – whereas the Kiev regions played completely to Ukraine’s strength, not only the heavily suburbanized areas but most of the region is heavily forested as well, which allowed the ‘partisan’ and guerilla tactics of the Ukrops to be much more successful than in the lower Donbass region of flat farmlands.
So I will stick my neck out and predict that the cauldron collapse will be more rapid than people expect now that Russia has made the decision to focus everything onto it. The troops are really chomping at the bit, attacks on their homeland (Belgorod), and the torture of POWs has boiled their blood. Reports from the frontlines of a soldier in Izyum continue to indicate they are ready and excited for a massive battle to crush the Ukrop cauldron (and the spirits/morale is high as well). And you’ve already seen the Chechens and their unprecedented morale and spirits – what will happen after Mariupol falls and those Chechens are loosed onto the southern front of the cauldron? I pity the Ukrops for what is coming.
I leave you with some Mariupol combat footage: https://www.bitchute.com/video/bn66HjckHAL3/
Dmitry Medvedev’s post today. Google translation
Ukraine wants to join the EU
(To the birthday of our sworn friend – NATO)
Ukraine wants to join the EU. Long and sincere. Even under Kuchma, wanted it, wanted it even more under Yushchenko, wanted it unbearably under Yanukovych, although he tried to pull himself together, deciding to be friends with the Eurasian Union. And then again – and Ukraine wanted it. It really wanted to join NATO right away. And she also asked, asked, prayed, prayed, but then she came to her senses. It seems that she realized that NATO did not want to take it herself. Like there are no conditions for marriage yet, there are many fears about such a marriage👰♀️♀.
Now Ukraine wants to join the EU again. More so than before.
And everything would be fine. Our position is known to Ukrainians: if there is such a desire, join, it would be an honor to be offered. And it seems that the Europeans now also really wanted Ukraine. There is only one hitch: the experience of recent years with Montenegro and Macedonia shows that entry into the EU takes place only through NATO. They are interdependent organizations. In European terms, politically correct speaking, partners. In NATO, as you know, Washington is in command. Like Brussels in the EU. But in NATO, Washington is the main one, and NATO itself is a senior partner in relations with the EU, more mature, born in 1949, in contrast to the still young, 30-year-old European Union👬. Therefore, Brussels as a whole is also commanded by Washington, although Brussels does not like to admit it. And so the question is: how to join the EU without NATO membership? Without the consent of the senior partner and entry into the main … alliance. No answer. Today, it turns out, no way.
Although it happens differently. In this context, one historical tale from the recent past. Words attributed to V.S. Chernomyrdin. During the period when he was ambassador to Ukraine, he was allegedly asked: “When will Ukraine join the EU?” He answered very quickly: “Right after Turkey.” “And when is Turkey?” he asked. “Turkey? Never…”
Ostro…. UE = NATO. Nato rules, USA rules. Bruxelles will do whatever Washington will dictate… war against Russia or buying Natural Gas from USA at four/five times the Russian price. That’s simple. Any geopolitical analysis must begin from here.
Hmmm. Maybe but the EU and NATO are very close these days. Both copletely under the thumb of the US. See Wiki – European Union NATO relations -“The European External Action Service’s (EEAS) Military Staff (EUMS), situated in the Kortenberg building in Brussels, has a permanent NATO liaison team and runs a permanent EU cell at NATO’s Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) in Mons.”
Plus: by the time this is over many States will be trampling over each other to make the nearest exit!
Western headlines support the Ukronazis. They lie saying that russia is out of ammunition. Russia plays with an ambiguous strategy now. yes, whashington rules brussels, and everything in the european media is liar and false. The European Union led by mediocre women has castrated the entire continent. Why is Angela Merkel shaking with parkinson’s disease? She stopped having babies and being a mother to sell her soul to the lying Satanic Empire. Merkel knew that Ukraine had Neo-Nazis, but she was concerned with promoting feminism in Germany and Europe. All European media are supported by Germany, and soon we will have a social revolution in the country of the masculinized and sterile psychopath Merkel. Many countries will leave the EU, and something new will emerge. The Russians have a different view of war than the cowardly USA. Putin is rational and the Russians have many military reserves and the future will soon bring surprises.
Putin is too slow! I want to see uranium etc sanctioned on the US. Please tell me you’re not hoping for good relationships with the collective west! These guys are hell bent on “Russia must fail and be seen to fail”! We’ve lost some good Russians in this war already, make it count! Be brutal! No mercy! Why are pantsirs not taking out these Ukrainian drones like you knew they would use them?
Handy cheat sheet for understanding ground units;
Company ~200 ‘bayonet’ strength
Battalion ~800 bayonet strength
Brigade (old style) ~3,000 total
Brigade (new style) ~5,000+ total
Division ~15,000 total
Corps ~50,000 total
Army ~150,000 total
Group Group ~500,000 total
The difference between bayonet strength and total is support units. Support units these days can be quite numerous. Important to be not be confused when seeing troop numbers.
Nightvision in his excellent SITREP appears to be using ‘bayonet’ strength when describing the battalion sized units.
Old style militaries typically had units based on principle of 3. (2 units fighting and 1 in reserve) . So….3 companies made up 1 battalion…3 battalions made up 1 brigade/regiment etc etc
See what’s interesting is, no one seems to know with absolute definitiveness much info about how Russian BTGs really function or integrate with the wider service. For instance, I just read an article from some U.S. general that said that Russia’s invasion has been greatly ‘uncharacteristic of what we know about Russia’s doctrine’ and that “Russia has not used any Battalion Tactical Groups like we expected”… so some “official sources” claim Russia is not even using BTGs. Also according to other “official sources” a Russian brigade is comprised up to 50% of BTGs, implying the remaining 50% would be normal non BTG structure (I hesitate to say the remainder is “support” units because BTGs themselves already incorporate their own support).
But either way, let’s just say that the figures I gave from the 50-60 BTGs corresponding to about 50k ‘bayonet strength’ of men, and we take into consideration that 50% of the brigade might be BTGs and the other 50% support staff. So for argument’s sake, let’s pretend the actual 50-60 BTG unit strength is therefore equivalent to 100,000 total men including support units. This of course would still be grossly beneath the number of what western analysts claim Russia is utilizing. In fact this would maybe seem more realistic to me because even to me 50k sounds extremely low, so I’m more inclined to believe that you’re right and that is bayonet strength only and in fact the full number is let’s say 80-100k, but then that would go perfectly with my thesis from other writeups where I predicted Russia was likely using 80-100k at most. And since I did the math last time showing that Russia has upwards of 250k+ total kontraktniki available to use from the various forces of army, naval infantry, VDV, spetsnaz, Rossguard, etc., (excluding conscripts) that would mean they would still have a vast amount of reinforcements able to be brought to theater as many of us asserted.
The only question is, how many of those reinforcements is Russia actually comfortable with strategically employing versus saving them in reserve for country’s defense. Typically a nation never uses all of its active forces because you have to conserve some to protect your borders from potential unforeseen threats. But ofcourse Russia still has:
1. a massive ‘reserve’ force of 400-500k that can be called up at any time
2. the active conscript force which would number in the 100k+ range or more
3. the Rosgvardia national guard of purportedly 350k++.
So if all these 3 forces are able to be kept in reserve for the strategic defense of the country and its borders then I don’t see why Russia couldn’t use the remaining ‘active duty contract’ force that has yet to be deployed. But as others have said, there could still be the notion that Russia is withholding these troops for a possible expected confrontation with NATO down the line as this Ukrainian conflict continues to develop.
Nightvision,
we are in general agreement on the likely ‘headline’ size of the Russian peacekeeping force employed in support of the non-nazi Ukrainians. Add in the Ukrainians wanting to be liberated from the Kiev dictatorship (50K?) and the numbers feel right.
I actually made up the cheat sheet for those who aren’t as familiar with military formations, since your article assumed some solid background with the jargon. :)
From reading your comment above – I’m guessing the basic unit in the Russian military is still old style Battalions. Is that true ? Its been so long (decades) since I was deep in these topics, so would enjoy hearing some insight.
Keep up the SITREPs – every other day seems a good rhythm, Saker one day, and you the next. Stunning insights beyond what we normally see.
One pet peeve I have with MAPS is they typically show front lines which is entirely misleading. Its far more illuminating to show units with ‘bubbles’ depicting their zone. Dragon did a first rate job with his bubbles. Bubbles are powerful way to show how formations are deployed.
They are using them.
Martyanov had an interesting article some time ago about how Russians calculatate BTGs, Divisions etc, it is entirely different from the West and as such western analysts often start from a picture of almost complete ignorance. You’d have to search for it or maybe he’d like to do an article about it for the Saker, straighten us all out?
I just asked Martyanov in his latest post to do that. Also asked him what he thought about the numbers and disposition of forces inside Ukraine and in reserve. We’ll see what he says.
I hope you are right about the speed because this needs to end the soonest possible for the sake of everybody involved.
I think prolonging the war at this point can only benefit Russia as they see the petrodollar get decimated. Russia is playing for economic positioning, knowing the near future strength in currency (Bretton Woods III) will be through commodities. We sure have idiots in the west playing this game.
Economic consequences of this will last for years if not decades that is already a given so the war needs to be finished as quickly as possible.
“ Economic consequences of this will last for years if not decades” I totally agree with you; but for 1, Russia can’t do an all-out war against Ukrainian to wrap this up fast & the US isn’t going to let him achieve his military goals in a rapid way. The other part of the physical war is the economic war & that’s where I think Russia can do further damage & fast. Remember his only taking rubble for gas, wait till he extends this to oil, fertilizers along with all other commodities they export to unfriendly countries.
I would like to see the gas flow stopping and German industry (including labour) revolting against politicians… And maybe some American embassies in the west assaulted.
German speaking: No way Jose, is anyone in Germany revolting. The majority will go after us russophiles, who, not quite accidentally, correspond with the group of protesters for civil rights and “anti-vaxxers”.
The hate against those, who didn’t store their brain in the basement, 2 years ago, is immens. Imagine, those in our country who support Banderastan the most, call us Nazi.
Most European countries replaced the hunt for non-vaxxed with the hunt for Russians,but 2 countries are fully capable to go after both groups, Germany and Austria. As everybody might remember, that’s “Deutsches Reich” aka “Großdeutschland”
Ukraine is just another proxy in Russia’s war against AngloSaxon Empire. Because of that, destroying dollar takes presedence over defeating Ukrainians.
Russian effort, and duration of the war is sized to maximize cost and damage to the Empire, not Ukraine.
“ Russian effort, and duration of the war is sized to maximize cost and damage to the Empire, not Ukraine.” & why wouldn’t that be their goal specially with China, India & African on their side.
More…..New Style NATO organized Ground Forces
In old style a Division ( 3 Brigades ) was the basic formation of the ground forces as roughly defined to be able to operate independently. Operate independently roughly means having own support forces.
NATO forces went through a massive re-organization a while back. instead of the division being core independent formation the Brigade Combat Team (BCT) became the basic independent formation. Ukie brigades follow this NATO model. Hence one often sees a Ukie Brigade designated as 56th ‘Seperate’ Brigade.
These new style NATO brigades usually have 4 battalions and a dazzling number of support units. Some of these new style brigades have grown to near division size (7-8,000 total)
Just a rough and ready cheat sheet
If you’re interested in current force compositions, you might like this:
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-05/57088-Force-Structure-Primer.pdf
The most recent overview of the US armed forces. It shows the structure and TO&E in great detail.
Harry,
Page 25 is the summary table that explains much.
Everyone who is baffled by battalion, brigade, regiment, etc etc should go to page 25 of Harry’s link
Typical US army ineptness. Hard to read ,nice visuals but no clear numbers, given in a difficult to read way
Thank you very much Nightvision.
What can we expect next? How about total “Ukraine liquidation”?
According to at least one published analysis ( https://ukraina.ru/interview/20220401/1033674987.html ) that is Putin’s ultimate but unstated intention. In that interview, Pyotr Akopov states that “all diplomatic statements are a smokescreen over what is happening” merely to accommodate certain sensitivities among helpful partners.
Seems very likely to me, but I’ve been wrong before.
it is saddening that so many regular VSU soldiers are not laying down weapons and are fighting on till the end
this means, from 2014 till now, Putin gravely miscalculated and Russia lost the heart and soul of the
non-Banderista Ukranian populaition
I think it is mass propaganda and brainwashing of people plus having all military units in the Ukraine filled with nazis and political officers. The average Ukie soldier wants to quit or surrender, they will be shot or tortured or their family killed.
It really is heartbreaking. Why fight and die for scum like Kolomoisky, Pinchuk, Zelensky, Poroshenko, Azov nazis, Hunter Biden, WEF, WHO, NATO, etc.?
It’s not that Putin miscalculated. Putin is very logical and rational person. The Ukraine has been completely impoverished and entered full decay mode in 1991. Under these conditions, neoliberalism and fascist-like nationalism begin feeding on one another. Especially trends of American-styled social Darwinism begin to flourish. I am seeing this in my country, Brazil, now. And they will tell that impoverished, uneducated, average Ukrainian that in order to “fit in” or at least to help in his survival, he has to be a “patriotic citizen” – of course this is not the healthy type of patriotism I am talking about… Some types of people, when in a hopeless situation, can be easily manipulated into “proud resistance against foreign invasion”, especially disenfranchised people and the Ukraine is a fully disenfranchised country.
Moreover, you can see in Ukrainian’s actions that this “people”, this region never was independent. They were always part of someone else’s Empire. So for instance, I of course am not aware of conditions on the ground, but they say “thank God the Russians arrived, the Nazis are exterminating us, we’ve been waiting for this since 1991”. That is great but has there been no systematic resistance against the Nazis since 2014? The Ukrainian mentality seems to expect “foreign invaders” to free them from foreign invaders… of course engaging in resistance against NATO-backed forces is no simple endeavor.
You are right: under certain stressful social conditions people tend to look forward to a messiah who will deliver them from hardship, e.g. Hitler, US, EU, NATO or other abstract acronyms. Probably that’s what has happened since 1991 and, particularly, since 2014 with the Maidan “revolution”; the people were conditioned to accept a “saviour”, in this case a wolf (NATO) in sheepskin (EU).
However, even a rationalist like VV Putin, can misread the situation and future consequences of one’s actions or lack thereof. In my view, it was a crucial and crass mistake to let the Ukraine degenerate to become ungovernable and unpredictable, particularly if one remembers that it was the Soviet republic with the highest vote (83%) in the referendum for remaining in the Union. It must have been a crushing blow for the Ukrainian people when the olygarchs looted their country and, understandingly, felt abandoned by the Russians led by an abject traitor.
One must also remember that the Ukraine was never a “nation” or even a “state”; it did not have a tradition, culture and institutions of a sovereign state – an artificial political creation resulting from the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Another fact is that the Ukraine was in the Soviet times the most developed and successful republic, in fact a pampered one.
Basically, the Ukraine was ready for the taking in 2014 but other considerations prevailed.
«Moreover, you can see in Ukrainian’s actions that this “people”, this region never was independent. They were always part of someone else’s Empire.»
This is the usual very gross misunderstanding, the current “Ukraine” is the successor state of the ukranian SSR, and the ukrainian SSR was a multinational, multiethnic federation, with the main components being ruthenian and malorussian, plus russian, polish, hungarian, romanian, greek, tatar minorities.
Note: poles, ruthenians, malorussians, russians, are all slavs; the malorussians (eastern Belarus and Ukraine) and the russians are closely related; the ruthenians are somewhat related to the poles, even if there is quite a bit of bad history between them too. Part of the story is that malorussians and russians tend to be orthodox and ruthenians and poles tend to be catholic.
Originally “the ukraine” was the malorussian area around Dnipro, then after WW2 the ukrainian SSR was expanded to westward to include Ruthenia and Transcarpathia and south to include coastal Bessarabia.
The ruthenians were not part of someone else’s empire: they were one of the main part of the polish-lithuanian-ruthenian empire, and many still want it back. Many of them are fascist xenophobes, have changed their name to “ukrainians”, and have laid claim to the whole of “Ukraine”, with the aim of ethnically cleansing the russian, hungarian, romanian, etc. nationalities from it; put another way they want to reverse the multinational expansion of Ukraine into Ruthenia westward into an uninational expansion of Ruthenia into Ukraine eastward.
My usual quote about the difference between Ukraine proper and Ruthenia:
http://ww2today.com/1-march-1944-the-red-army-marches-across-ukraine
«The population welcomed us warmly, regardless of how hard it was for them to provide food to soldiers; they always found some nice treats — some villagers boiled chicken, others boiled potatoes and cut lard (soldiers dubbed this kind of catering ‘a grandmother’s ration’). However, such attitudes were common only in the Eastern Ukraine.
As soon as we entered the Western Ukraine, that had passed to the Soviet Union from Poland in 1940, the attitude of the population was quite different — people hid from us in their houses, as they disliked and feared the Muscovites and Kastaps [a disparaging name for Russians in Ukraine – translators comment]. Besides that, those places were Bandera areas, where the nationalistic movement was quite strong.»
That was the *ruthenian* nationalistic movement, now rebranded shamelessly as
counting on “non-banderistas” is as pointless as counting on the “good germans” in WWII. even if those civilians aren’t 100% azov supporters there are still a good number of them who just hated russia for whatever reason long before 2014. there’s also the mentality of “the devil you know” and/or “lesser of 2 evils”. the “nazis*” aren’t numerous enough to maintain control of the country without the tacit approval of many (or most) ukie civilians.
* from my hazy memory, i believe “nazi” was never an official name for NSDAP members but came from a slang term that basically meant “dumb hicks”. so it makes an apt term for the ukies wearing (ironically Z shaped) “wolfangels” and such even if they aren’t germans from 1933.
My memory serves me to believe that NAZI is an abbreviation. Some say it’s an acronym.
“The Nazi party’s full name is NAtional soZIalistische deutsche arbeiter partei – which literally translates from German as the National Socialist German Workers’ Party.
“National” in German is pronounced “naht-see-oh-nal.”
To be fair, there must be 60-70% of the population in Eastern Ukraine that are sitting on the fence, waiting to see how this plays out before they commit to either side (who can blame them?).
If Russia is only doing this to help the Donbass and Crimea, which makes sense based on what Putin has said so far, then siding with Russia against the Nazis only to have Russian troops withdraw from your area (e.g. in Kherson) at the end would be suicidal.
If, however, all of Eastern Ukraine is going to get a new, non-Nazi government after all this, then these fence-sitters will likely join.
Russia needs to make its postwar plans clear very soon, hopefully they will after destroying the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass.
«You just underestimate the power of US brainwashing techniques. You should try living in the UK and then you’d understand.»
My guess is a lot of people in the UK are just protecting themselves by singing along with official propaganda, they don’t want to be singled out as “deviants” and lose their jobs or careers. As to official propaganda, brainwashing did not start with the USA occupation of the UK, here is a little song from the 19th century that is still taught in history courses in at least some UK schools:
“The dogs of war are loose, and the ragged Russian Bear,
Full bent on blood and robbery, has crawl’d out of his lair;
It seems a thrashing now and then, will never help to tame
That brute, and so he’s out upon the “same old game.”
The Lion did his best to find him some excuse
To crawl back to his den again, all efforts were no use;
He hunger’d for his victim, he’s pleased when blood is shed,
But let us hope his crimes may all recoil on his own head.
REFRAIN:
We don’t want to fight but by jingo if we do,
We’ve got the ships, we’ve got the men, and got the money too!
We’ve fought the Bear before and while we’re Britons true
The Russians shall not have Constantinople.”
Certain things don’t change across the centuries, except perhaps “and got the money too!” :-).
Same in the Australian prison colony.
content removed .. on 06 Dec 2021 banned the posting by anonymous .. this included spoofing of name … choose another name than ‘Anon’ .. mod
Why did Ukrainians fire Tochka U missiles at Mariupol.
The woman from the maternity hospital bombing in Mariupol has spoken out on video. She confirms that patients were driven out and the hospital was taken over by the Ukrainian army. Some patients remained in some part of the hospital. She also says the hospital was not hit by an air strike, but “artillery”. There is a link to the video on my page on the Mariupol hospital bombing. Inessa S has published a version of the video with english captions.
I believe Ukrainians fired two Tochka U missiles at the maternity hospital. The 4 meters deep crater is far too big for any type of artillery. Only Tochka U and Iskander M missiles with bunker-busting warheads leave craters like this.
There is a Tochka U engine part in a playground in the Left Bank neighborhood of Mariupol. It might be from one of the missiles that hit the hospital. In a Tochka U missile the warhead separates from the engine part before impact. The Left Bank is however quite far from the hospital, and in an odd direction, so this may be a different Tochka U with a different target.
A photo of the missile first appeared online on March 24th. A video from the same site was published a few days ago. The March 24th photograph must have been taken before DNR and Chechen forces took control of the area. In the photo the apartment building next to the playground is undamaged. In the video it is totally burnt out.
Why are Ukrainians firing Tochka U missiles at their own cities?
Why…..ever meet an neo nazi asshole…. Canada crawls with them, even Parliament is infested with them.
Cheers M
because the Ukes understand that Zionist media will portray each and every Uke atrocity….as something done by the Russians.
China daily cartoon,
https://epaper.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202204/01/WS624627c1a3109375516eb03d.html
In my humble opinion, Russian leadership is too much dragging its feet. Not so much on the front in Ukraine, but on all levels above. With findings from biolabs, documents showing effort to acquire bayraktar drones with aerosol capabilities for delivery of bio/chem weapons, USA/UK/French officers commanding azov in Mariupol (actually whole Ukraine), intelligence support of NATO to Ukraine, active rearmament of Ukraine with volumes and lethality levels drastically increased etc…. conditions are met to officially declare state of war with all opponents and act accordingly. Empire was preparing to exterminate Russians and other Slavs in genocide, and they have prepared their population to embrace that goal which we see not just in the western media but in daily life from common people, so it’s time to drop “damage control” all together and take this to whole new level. What started as a game of chess (or poker if you want) is now a brutal “cage fight” for real. It is simply unavoidable, so seize the moment and take the fight finally to command centers from where this evil is actually coming. Ukraine is just a staging area, this is a global existential conflict. Don’t wait for false flag in Ukraine, pre-empt it with strategic escalation over the whole spectrum. There is no chance that white supremacists in the west will ever come to their senses, gas or no gas, only way to finish this is to defeat them for real, all else is just prolongation of suffering.
Yes, but the war must be won methodically. As we have seen a dozen times in Syria, the West always tries to interrupt what Russia is doing successfully and force it to do something else less successful.
And that is because Russia kept compromising with the west. Russia made deals with Turkey and that helped prevent the destruction of the terrorist groups in Syria’s north and west. Turkey has been a major support of the terrorist groups and militants from the beginning of the Syrian war.
So that is why Russia should avoid these “negotiations” with dishonest puppets who manage to get Russia to do some of their bidding.
I agree with you, but if we assume that this Russian incursion into Ukraine has the purpose of holding ground and neutralizing a potential threat-vector in a WW3 scenario with America and NATO, then I don’t see much evidence so far contradicting this interpretation. This would mean that Putin found out enough of American plans to know that war is certain, and he slightly forced their hand to get a better position at Russia’s southern borders in the ouverture leading to the main events of the war. The next moves would, predictably, be pinpoint attacks on Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania (and similar installations elsewhere), in order to degrade American nuclear war posture.
Work on serial production of RS-28 Sarmat, and triple civil defense drill efforts.
There will probably be no dress rehearsal for the big one. Get portable nuclear generators for massive electronic warfare, and prepare for ASAT almost immediately. The west has no more economic or pr arrows in its quiver. It’s a bar fight now. The first punches are almost everything. There is very little detail planning that will make any difference, except for civil defense, lots and lots of food and water stored in rural areas. Hell will come to the world for many decades, but thinking it can be limited would be a very very big mistake. It can’t ,Go for carriers and subs immediately. The tritium levels in those old minute man missiles is getting long in the tooth.
It’s a bit late in the game for production efforts of any kind now; either something is already deployed in the field, or it’s irrelevant, and efforts and energy should be moved elsewhere. The civil defence preparations give away the intent, so I’m afraid they should be scrapped as well. The thing with total nuclear war is that the enemy should be convinced that you don’t plan it, and the best way to do that is to make long-term plans regarding economy and industry, that look like you expect things to last, and this ruse must be kept up even as the missiles start flying. Even when you start degrading the enemy’s nuclear war assets, it must be made to look like you’re doing it in the context of conventional warfare. At the point when the enemy understands there’s a nuclear war going on, they must already be completely incapacitated. That, at least, is the theory.
No nuclear war unless one is able to sink all nuclear subs (SSBN) in one shot.
If Russia can: nuclear war is almost inevitable.
If USA/NATO could it would already have happened.
You imply choice; what if one side knows that it’s cornered, that plans are deployed that will certainly destroy them in such ways that they will have no clear target to strike against or cause to pinpoint, and they feel forced to pre-empt this outcome by playing the nuclear game, regardless of the risk, because, as someone said, high risk is preferable to certain doom?
“by playing the nuclear game, regardless of the risk, because, as someone said, high risk is preferable to certain doom?”
That was a notion held by the Hudson Institute and others which was finessed for “the politicians”
Why was finessing necessary ?
The “risk” is predicated upon your facility in bullying your opponent, the facility being relatively high given the limited access to, and stockpiles of nuclear weapons, when the Hudson Institute and others arrived at their interpretations.
The major part finessed/memory-holed for “the politicians” was that testing the “risk” encouraged others to rectify limited access to, and stockpiles of, nuclear weapons, facilitating the myth of the missile gap that Mr. Kennedy used as part of his “1960 Presidential campaign” which in part facilitated “The Cuban missile crisis”.
“as someone said, high risk is preferable to certain doom?”
Many politicians are stupid in various matters so they tend to rely on someone who does not upset them.
This is also the case in recruitment and promotion policies of many organisations – “interviews” often being performances of Well I can’t give the job to myself, so who of the candidates is most like me ?
So the consequences of these interactive processes tend towards the increase of risks and their metamorphoses towards certain doom, which increasing numbers of practitioners attempt to frustrate and increase the vectors through which the transcendence of nuclear weapons and the coercive social relations of which they are derivatives are facilitated.
You may have observed that practitioners acting for and on behalf of coercive social relations have increasingly been and are becoming even more reliant on non-nuclear options, including biological warfare, “colour revolutions”, and increasing use of mercenaries such as NATO and “independent contractors” as force mulipliers, thereby rendering their “plans/strategies” metamorphosing into hopes and wishes.
The previous nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation was updated to include the engagement in biological warfare as a condition which would be subject to a nuclear response of the Russian Federation.
I’m thinking about this precarious situation and how we got there, and I think the New Age “self help” ideas contributed much more than they are given credit for; namely, thee ideas that subvert conventional pragmatism in dealing with situation, and instead introduce “mind over matter” concepts such as rejecting fear, “not allowing yourself to be blackmailed” etc., basically if I put my head deep enough into the sand and see no evil, then no evil will be able to reach me. This is all incredibly immature, childish nonsense, but people actually believe that stuff, especially in the West, because they’ve read lots of books containing this nonsense, which is why they are unable to correctly process warnings and danger signals, and head straight into war. This is in the background of all the present “social media warfare”, which takes place because people believe that if they succeed in making other people believe in their lies and illusions, this cements those illusions as the new reality; essentially, they will refuse to reject the facts and reality until the entire world crumbles around them, and I’m afraid that even then they would keep up the act if they had a phone with a working Internet connection. This is a mere extension of the phenomenon of “Instagram models” who pretend they are living a perfect life online, where everything is beautiful, they are wealthy and upbeat and they don’t have any problems, while in reality they are depressed to the point of suicide.
Though I completely agree with your sentiments, going full-hog right now would not be in the best interest of the strategic thought that went into this operation.
I believe that Russian military commanders know exactly what they are doing and which is what I have done when playing military simulations; using the least amount of force necessary to defend a position or take out a target.
Such tactics can be agonizingly slow but the end result is that when the time is right, a knockout blow can be implemented successfully.
Don’t worry, the Russian knockout blow will come… At the right time…
Totally agree.
I keep saying here all the time that the window of opportunity for Russia to preempt the west will close in about 3 years, probably sooner if the west enters (and that appears to be the case) full arms-race mode. Soon they will also have hypersonic missiles and more troops and hardware in eastern Europe. If Putin is not seriously prepared to, in about 1 year or so, take the fight to those command-centers that are the actual enemy, than I suspect things will get a lot harder and complicated for the future or Russia.
The west is and will continue to plot and implement all sorts of sordid schemes against Russia, false-flag and otherwise. I ask at which point Putin will say “enough” and go full-hog against those motherfuckers.
The gas thing is another fine example of “dragging it’s feet” towards it’s enemy. Not only the gas was NOT cut (which, considering the absurd THEFT of Russian reserves should have been already) but the ruble for gas thing that COULD indeed bite the west hard, in the end was just a “psychological” thing by Putin: The “unfriendly” countries are still paying in EUROS/USD only thru a different mechanism. I mean, c’mon, for godsake….. this is too polite and subtle for the aggression already commited by the west against Russia on all fronts, it may and probably WILL be interpreted by the west as a show of weakness and it will only embolden them to escalate things even harder against Russia on all fronts.
We will see, but I sincerely hope that when Putin understands that no matter how rational, polite and restrained he plays this off, the west will not back down no matter what and they will fatally wound him and Russia if given the chance (and they are being given lots of chances by Putin, lets not kid ourselves) that it won’t be too late to act accordingly and avoid being surround bay NATO hypersonic missiles (which they WILL have sooner rather than later). Alas this will happen anyways, irrespective of Ukraine, meaning this: Putin will have to deal with NATO one way or another. Better be on his terms than on theirs.
So drag his feet he may, but ultimately either by preempting or by being forced to act (like he was with this operation in Ukraine) he will have to act. The west will give him no choice, no matter how “polite” he insists on being.
«USA/UK/French officers commanding azov in Mariupol (actually whole Ukraine), intelligence support of NATO to Ukraine, active rearmament of Ukraine with volumes and lethality levels drastically increased etc…. conditions are met to officially declare state of war with all opponents and act accordingly.»
According to someone as important as the President of France himself:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1586094/ukraine-war-latest-emmanuel-macron-boris-johnson-tanks-nato-tanks-ukraine-russia-news
«French President Emmanuel Macron categorically rejected the idea of providing Ukraine with more tanks, as hinted at by Mr Johnson, calling it a “red line”. The French leader said NATO should not become “co-belligerent” by supplying Ukraine with more military supplies.»
«Empire was preparing to exterminate Russians and other Slavs»
The many anti-russian poles and ruthenians are slavs too. This is not anti-slav ideology, it is just anti-russian.
1. With all respect, I don’t consider Macron that important, let’s see how those elections go first…
2. An ethnic bioweapon (or a biogenetic weapon) targets people of specific ethnicities or people with specific genotypes, in this case Slavs. Yes, Russians are the main target, all others would be considered collateral damage regardless their political orientation or pro/against Russia sentiment.
A bit of nuance to my comment… when I say “to declare a war and act accordingly” I don’t mean immediately nuke the NATO, I mean declare the war in juridical sense. Some Ukrainian official argued a few days ago that Russian POW’s can’t have Geneva convention protection as war is not officially declared. Since USA/UK and minions have started a war against Russia many years ago in all but in name, let’s correct this anomaly and call it what it is.
One of the main reasons Russia is losing media war is that people in the west don’t take it seriously. Not its intentions, not its arguments, not its capabilities. As a first step, withdrawing of all diplomats from USA and UK, expelling theirs from Russia (not before Russians arrive home safely), and then declare a formal state of war with just USA & UK. It would give Russia a legal framework to act which now don’t exist, and it would make all others think twice before continuing on this path of confrontation.
Conventional hypersonic strikes against command canters would be sufficient to demonstrate impotence of NATO as a military force, and would awake all those “midlife crisis cold warriors” in the west to ugly reality.
Sinking an aircraft carrier in Mediterranean would add some spice and credibility to this posture, in the Sea of China even more so. B52’s in Europe should be actively hunted and destroyed. Yes, Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania are primary targets in this scenario too.
WW3 (as in full nuclear exchange) is not inevitable in my opinion, but only if Russia demonstrates to the world audience its strength and NATO’s impotence. West must learn the hard way to acknowledge and respect Russia, and only Russia can teach them why and how.
Question: What do TOE and OOB mean? (The acronyms are Russian and appear on Dragon-first’s maps.)
1) Dragon-first-1 has started recreating the Russian MoD maps shown on MoD videos and adding his details on the Ukrainian troop positions.
2) DNR forces captures a Ukrainian map of the “Donetsk Oblast” with TOEs and OOBs shown. It is seen on ANNA News video and photos.
A do not think the Russian forces near Kiev will go to Donbass or Kharkov. Their 30 day tour is over and they will now go into the reserve. Fresh forces from the reserve will move to Donbass for stage 2 of the Special Military Operation.
Sorry for the typo and missing link. Here is the link to the captured Ukrainian map:
TOE – Table(s) of Organization and Eauipment
OOB – Order of Battle
TOE (its actually TO&E): Table of Organization and Equipment
OOB: Order of Battle
A TO&E shows exactly what kind of equipment a certain type of formation has, or at least, should have if it is fully up to strength. So the TO&E of a mechanized infantry battalion shows the standard configuration of such a formation. In practice, unit are usually either missing some stuff or have extra’s they’re not supposed to have.
An OOB shows you the line up of which formations are part of a specific military force, without going into much detail as to how these formations are equipped exactly.
Here you can find the TO&E for US forces if you want an example (go to page 24):
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-05/57088-Force-Structure-Primer.pdf
Actually I thought “TOE” and “OOB” referred to the Cyrillic abbreviations on Dragon-first’s maps. I know “ombr” stands for “separate motorized brigade”, but what are OOS, POGO and OMO?
You got those three from Dragon’s maps, right?
POGO and OMO use the same type of ‘flag’ as formations listed as ‘OMBR’, so those would be brigades too, but of a different type.
A quick search showed POGO is a Russian abbreviation used to refer to Border Guard detachments.
OMO appears to be an abbreviation for ‘special police detachment’, so in this case would refer to a ‘special police’ brigade.
That leaves OOS. It uses a different type of flag on Dragon’s maps and there are far fewer of those, so I’m assuming it’s some kind of higher echelon designation. I’ve found this page:
https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9E%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D1%96%D1%8F_%D0%BE%D0%B1'%D1%94%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%85_%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BB
Which translates it as ‘joint forces operation’, which would fit with this being designators for different HQ’s coordinating the various brigades and other formations under their command.
The Slavyansk, Kramatorsk-Lysychans’k, Severodonetsk axis seems like it
will present some difficulties. The heavily industrialized Kharkiv looks like
a nightmare worse than Mariupole. It seems like Kharkiv will require a major reduction
before any investment is attempted. Will major weapon systems, “short of nuclear”
be required?
Here’s another interesting development.
Not that I don’t implicitly trust the US government {sarcasm}, but one can only wonder *who* is actually preparing a “false flag” attack. The article below describes preparations that are curiously reminiscent of the Dubya regime’s dispensing of Cipro to the White House staff *before* the Anthrax attacks of 2001:
“White House: US Sending Kiev Equipment to Deploy in Event of Chemical, Biological Attack”
https://sputniknews.com/20220401/white-house-us-sending-kiev-equipment-to-deploy-in-event-of-chemical-biological-attack-1094407292.html
‘WASHINGTON (Sputnik) – The United States is sending Ukraine equipment to use in the event of a chemical or biological attack, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Friday.
‘ “The United States and members of the international community have, of course, repeatedly warned about the potential for Russia to use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine, and that Moscow is possibly planning a false flag operation,” Psaki told a briefing. …’
Russia destroyed their BW and CW stockpile a while ago – and the US sent “experts” to “independently verify” this destruction.
The US “couldn’t afford” to destroy their stockpile, and the 300+ overseas labs working on high-hazard microbes directly under US control and management clearly demonstrates the ones who have this capability.
Rest assured this will be completely ignored by Zone A press if and when an “incident” occurs.
They are recruiting rescue-crews – so called silent professionals
” If you do not have extensive prior experience protecting private clients in a solo practitioner / small team capacity and 5+ years of military experience, you will not be competitive. Only competitive candidates will be contacted for further vetting. Non-competitive candidates will simply not be considered or contacted.”
https://silentprofessionals.org/jobs/extraction-protective-agents-ukraine/
Russia is going to lose this war if is not able to defeat ukro army in donbass.
Abandoning “denazification” (because Russia will not occupy Kiev or the west of Ukraine) for liberating Donbass, means that Russia abandones the idea of occuping Ukraine (the only way a denazification could happen.
If is not even capable to destroy ukro resistence in donbass, the war will be lost for Russia.
The Nazi’s in Kiev will soon find themselves taped to polls.
Waging “nice” war does not work. At some point Russia will have to go all in or all out. The current luke-warm approach can’t last for much longer.
Luckily the Russian military people don’t have your low morale and disillusion.
You obviously have not taken notice of the facts so why are you commenting here?
Their 10 step plan. ……….
Step1: Remove currency sovereignty and load up debt in foreign currency that they can’t issue.
Step 2: Hike interest rates aggressively to cause a crises. Implement structural reforms and say it is because of the crises. Deny that you intentionally caused the crises.
Step 3 : Impose spending rules and debt rules to transfer the allocation of both skills and real resources to the commercial banks and central bank. Full them with technocrats that can’t be held accountable or removed at the ballot box.
Step 4: Carry out structural reforms. Privatise everything and turn the public sector to a rent extracting monopoly.
Step 5: Remove the judges and transform the judicial system so that foreign contractors operating have immunity from the legal process, effectively granting immunity from any kind of suit, civil or criminal, for actions the contractors engaged in. Corporations are exempted from owing any tax. Suspended all tariffs, thus removing the advantage that domestic producers had over foreign producers.
Step 6: Shut down newspapers and TV stations of opposistion. Create divisions amount every group in the society. By funding think tanks and liberal groups that work for your own secret service. Remove the ” mental” sovereignty of the nation.
Step 7: Remove first past the post elections. Create promotional representation parliaments that can never reach a consensus on anything. Keep them divided.
Step 8: Slash taxes in order to create an oligarchy that is aligned with Western interests. To run the rent extracting monopolies.
Step 9: Asset strip the place until nothing is left. Blame the workshy on unemployment and poverty.
Step 10: Join NATO prepare to fight Russia and China. Trade with the West and not East.
Did you get access to their “secret” POA (Plan of Action)? Almost perfect… except that NGOs and NEDs et al are not specifically mentioned.
The title of the POA was, supposedly, “How to Destroy a Country and Make it our Loyal Slav(e) – The Stockholm Syndrome Effect in the Geopolitical Arena”.
“The title of the POA was, supposedly”
It has actually an official name: the “Washington Consensus” (aka reaganism/thatcherism).
I would suggest as an alternative informal name “The Pinochet Plan”, or “Pinochet’R’Us”.
It was briefly also known as the “Yeltsinization”.
I wrote my analysis here: https://www.danijel.org/blog/ukraine-sitrep/
The last few years of my military career (granted very late 70s) was in “war games” in command and control (using conventional forces).. The last “exercise” I was involved in was a “simulated” war with Iran and it was not going well when it was terminated. Your article is extremely well written and researched and I would hazard a guess that Russia is holding back to see what the US military reaction will end up being. .Glad to be made aware of your writings.
You said in your analysis that you’ve seen reports of more Russian troops on the border, larger than before the war.
Can you find those reports for me? I can’t find any reference to that using Google, but I’ve seen other people refer to them. It matters with regard to how many Russian forces are inside Ukraine versus how many in reserve in Russia.
Thanks.
“…using Google…”
LOL, that is your error right there.
“”The full statement: “Russia has pulled more equipment to the border than it was before the invasion – according to Ukrainian resources affiliated with the intelligence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The intelligence community “Informnapalm” specifies that specifically in the Kursk region a huge amount of military equipment is recorded – more than it was on February 24th.””
From Intel Slava Z, telegram.
🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡APPEAL TO THE RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTH-EAST, especially Donbass (living in the territories controlled by Bandera)
We always say what we think is the truth, no matter how hard it may sound. Today we urge you to leave your homes and go in any safe direction.
We think that the battle for the liberation of Donbass will be hard, the Nazis will hide in the cities and will hide behind the civilian population. It is necessary to wrest this trump card from their hands. We admit that the most modern types of non-nuclear weapons can be used against the Bandera people who have settled in urban areas. There may be casualties among civilians. The best solution is evacuation
In this post, we are not joking, and we consider it important to warn as many people as possible about the impending danger. Please take care of yourself and your loved ones and move to a safe place!
Also showing a massive launch of Iskander missiles, destination? Donbass contact line?
It’s unclear whether that was an official announcement but it sounds as if they are announcing the use of thermobaric weapons.
That would make military sense given how the war has been going. Themobaric weapons suck the oxygen out of the air in the area in which they go off. That makes them effective against troops that sit in fortified positions.
Thanks for this excellent sitrep. I’ve become interested in the attacks on Belogrod which Ukraine has strenuously denied doing. There was another shelling yesterday I think. What I’m interested in is the Russian’s muted silence on this. I’m thinking now that this is a NATO country doing this in order to provoke Russia into dramatic escalation of the operation or to bomb the country responsible in order to bring NATO into the war. Do you think this is the preliminary false flag?
Maybe it’s just a red herring? The muted response from Russia , and the denial from Ukraine makes me wonder.
As I wrote above, the war must be won methodically. The West always tries to interrupt what Russia is doing successfully and provoke it into doing something less successful.
Yes, this may well have been a NATO provocation. I saw a Telegram message today saying that German intelligence believes the attack on Belogrod was coordinated by the UK and US. This would explain the Ukrainian high command not knowing about it.
Thinking something similar with a combination of electronic spoofing and Nap of the Earth Flying of some Eastern EU countries former Soviet helo’s.
People asking why there was no response from Russia but, fog of war and similar equipment in use with VVS forces would probably do it.
At least, and ironically, the attempt to airlift commanders out of Mauripol was a bust and with Stingers no less. A payback from the 80’s I would think. No NATO assets are going to leave the cauldrons and battle field if trapped this time unlike 2014/15 and so it should be.
Thank you to the VVS and DLP forces freeing civilians in the East from the terror empire and their proxies have endured them to. Lest we forget the massacre on the streets of Mauripol just after Maidan, no less horrendous than the Odessa Trades Hall Murders and the War against the DLP.
Meanwhile, Empire squirms as the Multipolar World takes form and the USD is turned into nothing but confetti. May peace reign supreme in the aftermath and no one people / country take the mantle of Empire again. Time to relegate Colonizing and Resource R.A.P.E to the dustbin of history.
I have a photo of Polina with a black diagonal strip – a six-year old victim of the Ukrainian army’s shoot to kill operations against the civilians of Mariupol. So sad…
https://ugetube.com/watch/video-from-mariupol-2014-during-the-euromaidan-this-is-how-the-takeover-and-genocide-of-the-russian_ymbyjwidmfemqi6.html?lang=spanish
Thanks nightvision for yet another comprehensive and well thought out analysis.
The item about the US military being unable to achieve it’s desired quota numbers-wise was very interesting.
Could health reasons be playing a part? One really has to wonder why a country, as militarized as is the US would want to compromise the health of it’s military forces?
In a most informative discussion, Dr Fuellmich offers a solution to this question.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/oRCyqTAEY05o/
Way I see it Russia will have to finish as quickly as possible with that cauldron whch means leaving out of the equation considerations of saving any part of the Ukranian forces. As things develop on the financial front the demise of the dollar will become an existential thread to the US and one never knows what they may decide to do. Having amassed about 100 thousand US soldiers on the frontline they may decide to send them into Ukraine. A last hail Mary at that but nonetheless the Russian forces must be ready to welcome them instead of still being bogged down in the Donbas
We can be 100% sure that any mass of US/NATO troop formations are targetted already, and if they move one inch eastward they will be obliterated.
They will be welcomed for sure, but not in a way anyone would want for themselves.
Whilst I think we all would psychologically prefer a quick resolution of this “problem”, the reality is that the Russian Military will certainly have war-gamed this engagement exhaustively, and they are running the show in the best manner from their viewpoint, with their objectives being met.
My concern is the US. The US controls NATO, and by extension the EU, and the US is already experiencing significant domestic problems, not at all helped by the large increases in petrol and diesel prices (by their pricing standards).
Erosion of the utility of the US $ as a true reserve currency continues, with the “confiscation” of Russian reserves by US / EU sending highly noticeable shockwaves through the financial community. This process will inevitably escalate since “producer” Countries will prefer a medium of exchange not subject to sudden seizure – and in fact even by US standards such action was probably illegal.
So, the question might be will the US “go quietly into the night”, or are they going for the “Samson Option” – essentially “if we can’t have everything, then no-one else can have anything!”?
It might be useful to remember that only the US has used nuclear weapons, both times directly against civilian targets, (an action viewed by many as a war crime – along with the saturation fire-bombing of Dresden and Tokyo). Although that administration has long gone, the mindset is still there, so there must be a suspicion of would they “do it again”?
I believe they are also the only nation to have used biological or chemical warfare agents post WW2, according to eyewitness accounts and evidence, and despite the denials and claims of communist propaganda, in the DDR, Korea, China, Vietnam, Laos, the Iran / Irak war and most recently again in China.
They have a track record of plausible deniability, and unfortunately, it seems a reasonable assumption it’ll happen in a theater near you, if they believe they can get away with it.
Thank you Nightvision for this comprehensive and excellent summary. It seems that Saker has this ability to attract the very best on his site.
I fel lucky to have access to this invaluable source of information and want to express my gratitude for your contribution to this Us/NATO/EU war against humanity.
Yes, The Art of War……..the book is being updated in real time. Had the master seen the rocket rain, he’d smile and write the addendum himself.
Cheers M
Questions:
1. What happens to the “de-nazification” plan? It seems that Russians will not be able
to achieve that. This could pose serious problems in the future.
2. What happens to Kharkov and/or Odessa? It seems there’s no way that the
Russians can take those cities without obliterating them.
“This could pose serious problems in the future.”
For Russia, or for Poland when they administer Lwow/Lviv/Lemberg?
It’ll be a problem for Russia directly (inside whatever the new Russian entity will be called, ie. Novorossiya) and indirectly (via constant threat to Novorossiya from the Western Ukraine).
Whoever will be dealing with the Western Ukraine (EU, Poland or Ukraininas themselves)
will have their own problems. This could be simmering problem for a long time…
Just saw a video of Zelensky visiting some village in Donbass in 2019 and asking
military units to remove heavy weapons. That confrontation says it all.
«Just saw a video of Zelensky visiting some village in Donbass in 2019 and asking military units to remove heavy weapons. That confrontation says it all.»
Zelensky is a strange figure: to me he seems both a willing puppet of greater powers, yet a puppet that tries somehow to be do his own thing. In a recent interview he said things that probably will get him “martyred” by “nasty Putin” using “Novichok”:
https://www.economist.com/europe/volodymyr-zelensky-on-why-ukraine-must-defeat-putin/21808448
«Mr Zelensky divides NATO into five camps. First are those who “don‘t mind a
long war because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise
of Ukraine and comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives”.»
I am also shocked that a staunchly “aligned” propaganda mouthpiece like “The Economist” dared to report such a “deviant” statement about the USA, UK, Poland.
Zelensky continues:
«Others want a quick end to the fighting because “Russia‘s market is a big one [and] their economies are suffering”. A third, more diverse group of countries “recognise Nazism in Russia” and want Ukraine to prevail. They are joined by smaller liberal countries that “want the war to end quickly at any cost, because they think people come first”. And last are the embarrassed countries that want peace right away and in any way possible, because they are “the offices of the Russian Federation in Europe”.»
Except for the insane “recognise Nazism in Russia” it seems fairly realistic.
When the forces in the cauldron are finished off, and they will be, what’s left for the Ukrainian forces to then keep the Russian forces from Kharkov and Odessa? One better believe that Russia has a score to settle with regards to Odessa. When all is said and done there will be an insufficient number of the “Nazis” left to be of any meaningful obstacle: yes, there will always be some causing problems, but in the long-run it’s about having the local populations trained to understand that letting these kinds of people propagate will only bring in mass suffering- self-policing will be in their best interest.
Nightvision,
The Russians have been promoting evacuations as well as stating bombs will be dropped almost as strong a nuclear weapons.
Could it be they will use Avangard?
Strange how little attention is given to the imo main reason Russia is keeping most of its troops still out of the conflict.
Obviously the elephant in the room is a possible intervention of the NATO forces beeing built up near Ukraine.
So Russia is keeping most of its firepower dry in case of this happening.
Much of the activities/strategies have been enforced beforehand, by geography and troop placement/entrenchment. Both sides were aware of that and prepared accordingly. Nevertheless one can be sure, that all of Russia’s activities/strategies are beeing closely monitored and analysed by NATO, so Russia is not only holding back most of its firepower and the bulk of her most advanced gear (where are T90 or Tu22 which have been used in Syria but seemingly not yet in Ukr, where are the Msta instead of the old akatsia? Etc…), but Russia
most probably also tries to give away as little as possible of their methods, that also would be used against NATO.
Russia seemingly still sees the probability of a conventional fight against western troops quite high.
You must be new here. Russia is not “holding back”. Phase 1 has been a “maneuver and strike” war (kinda like Blitzkrieg plus deep missile strikes). For such tactics troop numbers are less important – in fact disadvantageus – instead mobility and the ability to strike anywhere behind enemy lines is more important. These tactics have allowed russia to destroy most ukr equipment and logistics, without having to frontally engage the brunt or ukr forces.
Or in short: Ukr has lost nearly all its hardware by being outsmarted. Problem is what now remains is hundredthousands of soldiers. Soldiers without armor, artillery or air support, but still an army of soldiers. And against those the prior tactics won’t work, so now for phase 2 a new approach is needed.
We fully support Russian and Chechen Soldiers! Our prayers go to them. May God Guides them, and if they had to die, may they become martyrs.
We also hope that Russian Army and Chechen Soldiers shows no mercy and ripped those UkroNazis apart, each and down to the last of them! Of course, Russia will take POWs, but I still hope, those UkroNazis who are left and decide to take arms and stupid enough to die, may Hell becomes their final resting place!
Slava Rossiya, Urrraaaa!
🇬🇧🇺🇦 The situation in Ukraine and Donbass by now:
🔷 More than 14.5 thousand refugees entered Russia from Donbass per day.
🔷 In the liberated territories of the DPR, the former state property of Ukraine will become the property of Donetsk.
🔷 French intelligence officers could be on the downed helicopter near Mariupol.
🔷 Kyiv announced its intention to appropriate the assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation frozen abroad in the amount of about $400 billion.
🔷 Neo-Nazi “Aydar” admitted the deliberate shelling of an Orthodox monastery in the DPR, for which Kyiv laid the blame on Russia without evidence.
🔷 The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced the beginning of the assault on the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, where militants of the Ukrainian national battalions are hiding.
🔷 Human Rights Ombudsman in the Russian Federation Tatyana Moskalkova called the conditions for the detention of the Ukrainian military who surrendered as ideal.
Past summary of events.
#Donbass #Russia #Ukraine
@riafan_everywhere
“Meanwhile U.S. training standards continue to plummet as high profile crash after crash occur on a regular basis. Yesterday an important Navy intelligence E-2D plane crashed off the coast of Virginia with at least one confirmed fatality. And I’ve recently highlighted how an F-22 just crashed in Eglin base in Florida last week, while only two weeks prior the F-35 that crashed in the South China Sea was finally dredged up, a U.S. Marine Osprey crashed during NATO exercises this month, killing 4-5, while a Navy F-18 also crashed two weeks ago in North Carolina.”
I would bet Joe Biden’s millions of Ukrainian/CCP corruption cash that a majority of these crashes are due to the vaccines and the remainder due to mechanical issues rather than any drop in training standards, though that will change dramatically after another three years of the Biden regime. A whistleblower in the DoD leaked reports detailing the astounding increases of cancer, heart inflammation, infertility, etc., affecting the armed forces caused by the jab. Even MIC-friendly journals and websites admit that the Osprey and F-35 are crash prone because of numerous mechanical and design problems.
They have been cutting flight hours per month recently, so yes there are more crashes being caused by poor training.
“I would bet Joe Biden’s millions of Ukrainian/CCP corruption cash that a majority of these crashes are due to the vaccines”
Many commercial airlines pilots failed their physicals after they got the jab and now can no longer fly. Blood clots and thrombosis seemed to be the main problems for pilots after the vax.
Why are Ukrainians such, full of hate?
They killed 100000 Poles at the end of WWII.
They killed a lot of Jews, now Russians?
How to explain that?
“Ukraine” is not a nation. It is a racist theory about the inferiority of the Russian people.
…or, to paraphrase John McCain:
Ukraine is a hate group masquerading as a country.
This same hate has now blinded the West. Ukrainian nationalist flags are shown everywhere. Most people understand that the displays have nothing to do with peace or solidarity, but are an open expression of their hate toward everything Russian. Russians are not “White” and thus the blue and yellow flag is the ultimate symbol of White Supremacy. The rag is the new Swastika.
Yes but there is more. Ukraine (bio weapons labs) are directly connected to World Economic Forum (WEF) with Klaus Schwab and more. The same western media hysteria brainwashing for hating Russia is the same people.
Two great sources on Telegram are Intel Slava and BioClandestine. The first for Ukraine updates and the second on bioweapons labs and Ukraine. Also X22Report.com which has video updates 6 nights a week. The B videos. X22Report is talking about what Trump and his supporters are doing in the background. Trump the other day asked Putin and Russia to release all the data on the Bidens including Hunter Biden.
The Ukraine was used by the globalists to launder money for these globalist criminals. Dr. Jim Willie estimates that the Ukrainian banks were laundering $50 billion a month for the globalists and new world order. .
For who? Globalists, Clintons, Bidens, Obama, Soros, Kolomoisky, Bushes, McCain (junior thug) , and many others. This money was also used globally to bribe doctors, hospitals, the news media around the world to push fear and lies with pandemic. Look at Germany – forced vaccinations and you go to jail if you say anything nice about Russia.
Many thanks to Putin and Russia for ending this or putting a big dent into the globalists plans. One of the first that also pushed back and deserves thanks were Canadian truckers about 2 months ago.
There were many countries that ‘pushed back’ mid last year, well before the Canadian truckers.
Brazil for example had 3 million protesting, the largest gathering ever. Berlin, London and other places a million.
Brussells had street battles and looked like a warzone.
Not taking anything away from the Canucks but they were kinda late to the party.
«Why are Ukrainians such, full of hate?
They killed 100000 Poles at the end of WWII.
They killed a lot of Jews, now Russians?
How to explain that?»
It is not difficult:
* They are not “ukranianans”, they are *ruthenians*. Historically “the ukraine” is the area around Dnipro; after 1991 the ruthenians tried to take over the whole ukrainian SSR and cleanse out the other minorities (malorussians, russians, hungarians, romanians, rusyns, etc.).
* The Bandera style ruthenian nationalists are fascist xenophobes, down to using the blue and yellow heraldic colours of the Kingdom of Ruthenia for the ukrainian flag, to deny the other minorities.
* They massacred the poles both because of xenophobia, and because while they were allied to the poles in the ancient polish-lithuanian-ruthenian empire, and they are largely catholic like the poles, the polish “schlacta” (noble) class treated them as inferiors within the empire.
The ruthenian fascist xenophobes have trained themselves for centuries to follow the politics of resentment. It is a bit problem indeed.
Thanx for the heads-up. I am planting a garden…and sum.
I again would like to bring in the bird’s eye view – a roundtable discussion pulled in here by Uncle B, a conversation that is surprisingly coherent on every aspect of this abortion of a birthing process…
https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/ukraine-roundtable-false-flags-psyops-propaganda-what-you-are-not-being-told-about-ukraine/
I almost fell out of my seat, when the former gchq officer and all around expert in the region said around the 1 hour mark, that though he is not easily convinced, he is starting to seriously consider the nova khazaria line of thought…my jaw dropped.
It is well worth Your time.
Oil Brent price now “only” 104 $ per barrel. Stock prices in Europe and Europe quite high. There are no signs of growing panic among share holders, more likely relative confidence does exist.
On the other ruble has recovered very well after early March. Current curse 1:94,7. So no one can claim any dramatic changes during first 40 days of Russian military operation. EU can’t break the neck of Russian economy and Russia is unable to destroy European economy.
Thanks so much for tour SITREP Nightvision
Two questions occur to me
accordding to your stimate on troops for Phase 1, 1/4 to 1/3 of the troops were somewhat involved in the battle for Mariupol? (Assuming an initial force of 15 – 20 thousand nazis and a 1:1 ratio between the contenders.
Givind that many military ukros have demonstrated their commitment to Bandera withh more shelling, torture, etc. Do you think that the RF would decide to be even more lethal towards them?
Best regards
Mariupol is a little hard to figure out the numbers because there was so many different types of forces there. On the Ukie side there was not only Azov Battalion but also other Ukie elements and marines. On the RF coalition side there was RF forces (Marines and possibly others), DPR, Chechens.
The number everyone throws around on the Ukie side in Mariupol was 14-20k, but no one ever specifies if that was for total forces or for just Azov and not counting other Ukie elements. Of course “officially” Azov is alleged to only have 1500 total but that could be complete b.s. We know there’s Azov elements not only in Mariupol but other places further north in Donbass.
Keep in mind I believe in Ukraine on the RF side total maybe 80k to 100k, and Mariupol may only have had 10-15k total on RF side (Chechens, DPR, etc) so it wasn’t 1/3, but probably much less of total. But this is just all my opinion, I could be completely wrong and way off. It seemed to me the Russian troop disposition in the Kherson area was much more significant than Mariupol and the battles in Kherson were way more brutal before RF finally conquered the city.
“Meanwhile U.S. training standards continue to plummet as high profile crash after crash occur on a regular basis.”
This is truely bewildering. The Pentagon is spending more money than ever on diversity, inclusion and equity training.
Concentrate forces. Permanent conquest of territory. Spare those who surrender. Kill those that do not. Destroy all Ukrainian infrastructure to include the electricity, cell phones, and the government. No more “special operation” in other words: War.
Thank you Nightvision for an excellent and informative article. Perhaps you would be so good as to explain some aspects which I find puzzling.
Why do the Russians need to closely press the eastern Ukrainian forces from the western side of their defences? Already it seems that these Ukrainians can’t retreat and can’t be resupplied or reinforced and they are running out of fuel. Wouldn’t it be better to place a light screening force there to prevent small scale efforts to run away, whilst the main force moves further west to Pavlograd and Dnipro etc.?
Could the Ukrainians have already filtered some units west and south to form the defences there, so there will be fewer corpses than expected there when the eastern defences are destroyed or starved out?
How can the Ukrainians assemble and move any significant new forces if the Russians have been so successful in cooping the existing forces in scattered garrisons in cities and claim air supremacy and the ability to prevent such movements? Is the alleged movement of 15,000 Ukrainians from Kiev just lies? Are the Russians tempting them to move into the open where they can more easily be destroyed?
How much fuel do the Ukrainians still have? Despite the spectacular Russian destruction of some fuel depots, is there still a lot more available? Presumably they bought the fuel from Russia, (which should have a pretty good idea of their overall purchases, consumption and stock) can anyone else now be supplying them?
Why would there have been so many Western ‘advisors’ and spooks in Mariupol? How many extra generals would they need on the ground? Why attempt such a desperate exploit as sending helicopters to try to rescue them from Mariupol just to save a few SAS sergeant types? Could it be that any who survive will simply be murdered to prevent embarrassing publicity for Western politicians?
Why bother saving the Azov steel works? Is it still economically useful, or just a relic of the past? How economically viable is eastern Ukraine? Is it now de-industrialised, and reliant on grain exports?
What is the situation of the infamous oligarchs now? Are people such as Kolomoisky, Akmatov(?), Poroshenko and Pinchuk busy making deals with the Russians so that they will continue to dominate Ukraine behind a new front of ‘anti-nazi’ stooges when their current useful idiots have been killed?
1st question: because the DPR who go against heavily entrenched Ukies on Donetsk line are fighting them “head on” and are suffering big losses because you can’t rush a heavily fortified/entrenched enemy head on without major losses. The only way to defeat them while minimizing losses is surround/ambush/flank and bombard them from both sides.
2. Yes it was said Ukies have already pulled back to some 2ndary lines, particularly in areas where DPR actually “broke through” the main line, such as at Verkhnotoretske.
3. Remember just because Zelensky called for 15k reinforcements doesn’t mean he’ll actually get it or they will successfully be able to do it. Zelensky desperately calls for a lot of things, including brand new F-15’s and F-16’s now. There’s very little chance he’ll get any of the stuff he’s ‘calling for’
4. Very little fuel and just today Russia actually hit one of the last huge fuel depots in the whole country as payback for Belgorod, it was the Kremenchug factory, I will probably make a separate report on it because it was a very significant hit
5. No one knows if there was “many” advisors, in fact there may have been only a few in Mariupol which is why none were caught and the few there were either died or escaped already. But we’ll see once Mariupol is cleaned up, hopefully learn more
6. I think Azovstal had many sections operating, many others undergoing huge overhauls and maybe some sections out of commission
I may include info on the other things you asked in next report at length because Kolomoisky ties heavily into the Kremengchug factory that was just hit
Thank you Nightvision.
A further point that comes to mind is to wonder about the importance of corruption and incompetence in this war.
Gonzalo Lira has been informed that a lot of Ukrainian military equipment is being sold cheaply to Israeli arms dealers so the commanders can get enough money for their families to flee the country, and that several Russian generals may have been killed by their own troops rather than by the Ukrainians, because of their dishonesty and incompetence. https://t.me/realCRP/4123
People have noticed that the Ukrainian publicists tell little but lies, whereas the Russians tell the truth, but only as much of it as they deem helpful. The Russians emphasise their shiny new weapons and their military might and economic strength, but does the colossus have feet of clay?
President Putin promised that conscripts would not be used in this fight, but then it was revealed that many had been sent and some had been killed or captured. Voltaire Net mentioned that Putin had set the military prosecutors to find the officers responsible for this embarrassment, and elsewhere it was said that many conscripts had been pressured into signing on as ‘volunteers’ to make the problem go away. How can such disobedience and deception even be possible? For centuries the Russian army has had a very bad reputation for brutality and cruelty towards its conscripts, so it may be that the American custom of ‘fragging’ their more demanding or less competent officers has spread to the Russians. It is also rumoured that corruption remains rife in the Russian military. I saw a mention that Shoigu has built himself a lovely mansion out of military funds. If those at the top are corrupt, so will be their subordinates. Putin has taken a long time to slowly ease some of the (((oligarchs and Atlanticists))) out of influential positions, but he may not have been able to improve the morality of his officers.
Although the Russians have demonstrated superior strategic acuity and have air supremacy and much greater firepower, could it be that otherwise they are reliant on achieving victory by being a bit more competent and honest than the Ukrainians – which seems a pretty low standard?
And all that you get from ONE social media post where a guy heard from a guy who has a buddy who heard from a guy that another of their guys said that this is what’s happening/happened. I’m not even exaggerating. That is literally what your link entails.
And even then, the alleged original source is a PMC who works in the Ukraine. I’m pretty sure he’s not working for the Russians. And I’m pretty sure he’s not a reliable source for what happens behind Russian lines (like with these alleged dead generals; them being dead, itself nothing but rumor at this point).
“President Putin promised that conscripts would not be used in this fight, but then it was revealed that many had been sent”
Really? Many? Care to provide some reliable sources on that? Or at least put a number on what you mean by ‘many’? ‘Cause to me it looks like you’re just mostly repeating unsubstantiated rumors.
Harry,
I think your desire for precision in such matters is misguided and irrelevant. The important thing is the implications of some one or more people failing to obey their President’s order and thereby making him look a fool and a liar before the whole world. He said no conscripts would be used, so any number greater than zero is too many.
In one of his recent articles about the inadequacy of Russian public relations the Saker wrote that this is very embarrassing for Russia and he emphasised ‘very’ by colouring it red.
I have not heard of any follow up to this, and I think it is an example showing that the Russian policy of not mentioning bad news serves them ill, because it gives rise to suspicion that a situation may be much worse than it eventually turns out to be.
Regarding the rumours mentioned by Gonzalo Lira, they seem to come from an American mercenary or spook in Ukraine. Considering Ukraine’s reputation for corruption, and the fact that they are losing it is quite plausible that many of their military may be selling off arms and seeking to desert. The Russians seem to have occupied Kherson because the local garrison abandoned their base, leaving thousands of tons of munitions. when they shed their uniforms, donned civilian clothes and deserted. This was shown on RT. One may speculate as to whether the Russians bribed them. In previous years there were several fires at Ukrainian arsenals, suspected to have been set to cover up illicit sales of the stores. There’s really no need to doubt the Ukrainian reputation for corruption.
Regarding dead Russian generals, we can’t really know; except that the Russians seem to have been able to resuscitate at least one of them – which is very amusing! This may derive from rumours in the Ukrainian military, perhaps reflecting the attitude of Ukrainian troops towards their own officers. However, since the the Russian military organization was revealed to be less than perfect by the conscript scandal, and considering that the Russians may be regarded as half-Ukrainian, it is possible that they suffer from similar problems, although probably to a lesser extent because they are winning.
In short, you agree that you were wrong to state that ‘many’ Russian conscripts were deployed into Ukraine. You also now agree that the dead Russian generals is a best a rumor but likely Russian propaganda. And you agree that your information comes from an American mercenary working for the Ukraine.
It’s fine that you want to make a point about Russia’s errors and mistakes. I’m sure they made their share. But by using extremely dubious sources and and using highly suggestive language, you are undermining your own point and unfortunately, also your credibility.
“I think your desire for precision in such matters is misguided and irrelevant.”
I think you will find that the vast majority of readers will disagree with you there, and are in fact seeking for precision in these matters, as opposed to the rumors they already hear everywhere else and don’t need to hear again.
” … but likely Russian propaganda.”
Sorry, that should be ” … anti-Russian propaganda.”
All this shows that Operation Z is not developping towards expected solution. Ukraine will have to be partitionned and the Nazis moved back to Galicia or an extended Galicia up tp Kiew. Russia will have to manage the eastern and I hope the south parts making sue that the nazis will not have access to the Black Sea and Azov Sea.
But this is not going to improve relationship with the Empire of lies and Europe, vassal of that Empire forced to build an iron curtain facing Russia is going to fall into depression and civil unrest. For the US, they are going to make money in selling shale oil and gas to Europe and weapons to Galicia and NATO but I don’t think that this will allow them to avoid bankrupcy if they cannot induce China and India to join them.
Temptation, then, will be great for the Empire of lies to trigger then a nuclear war to take the whole world with then into Hell.
If the United States unleashes a nuclear war, in a few hours its territory will have become a radioactive and luminous desert.
His desire to become a beacon for humanity will have been realized.
It is strange that Russia is not destroying the bridges and electric infrastructure like NATO did in Serbia.
Also not using bombers. The bombers fly high and cannot easily be hit.
NATO’s objective was to terrorize Serbian civilian population from day 1, e.g. the heating plant in Belgrade was hit the very first night, later they moved to power lines with graphite bombs and even to direct attacks (like cluster bombing of Niš). While there are civilian casualties in Ukraine, it does not seem that they are targeted deliberately by Russian forces or even endangered indirectly by hitting power lines, etc.
It is possible that heavy bombers are not used (yet) but we can not be sure about that, they fly high (as you say) so it is also harder to spot them.
The War Party also bombed the copper mine in Bor. They bombed all sorts of civilian industrial sites in a barbarous rampage.
Same with Syria. Deliberate destruction of civilian, not military, assets such as power plants, schools, hospitals and water purification systems. Actions that are generally regarded as War Crimes, especially since the US / NATO did not officially declare war on Syria (such a declaration needs US Congressional approval).
“Trade unions in the Greek city of Thessaloniki united in support of employees of private railway company TrainOSE after management attempted to clamp down on workers who refused to take part in the transfer of US and NATO military equipment from Alexandropoulos to Eastern Europe, the news portal of the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) has announced.
TrainOSE reportedly threatened workers from the Thessaloniki Electric Locomotive Department, who refused to travel to Alexandropoulos to provide technical servicing of trains involved in transporting NATO military out of the port city, with punitive action, pointing to their obligations under signed contracts.
This prompted Thessaloniki’s trade unions to adopt a resolution demanding Greek railway infrastructure not to be used to transport military equipment, and ordering TrainOSE to stop its efforts to intimidate employees.
“We demand that our country’s railway rolling stock not be used to transfer the US and NATO arsenal to neighbouring countries. We condemn employers’ threats against TrainOSE employees who have refused to provide technical maintenance for trains which are currently transporting NATO tanks from the Alexandropoulos port. Employers’ statements to the effect that ‘what do you care what the trains carry, it’s your job and you are obliged to go’ are a joke,” the resolution said.
“We, the railway workers, work to provide affordable and quality transportation to the people and for the transport of goods which can be used to meet their needs, not to become part of the country’s involvement in plans which are dangerous for the people, by transporting NATO material to areas near Ukraine. We will not be accomplices in the passage of the war machine through the territory of our country,” the statement added.
A dozen trade unions, including workers of the chemical industry of Northern Greece, construction, telecoms, food industry, hotels, catering establishments, local authorities and municipal enterprises backed the resolution.
According to Alexandropoulos port director Konstantinos Hadzimihail, three trains’ worth of NATO equipment have been sent to Poland and Romania through the port to date. At least three NATO ships have entered the port over the past month, including the US-flagged Liberty Passion, and the Hartland Point, a British ro-ro cargo vessel, and the US Liberty King, which is continuing to be unloaded.
The KKE has been highly active in opposing Athens’ involvement in the crisis between NATO and Russia over Ukraine.
On Tuesday, KKE activists in the region of Thrace threw water balloons filled with red paint at US armour being transported on railway cars.
The party has also organised a series of protests in Athens and other major cities. On Friday evening, the KKE held a rally on Syntagma Square, next to the country’s parliament building. Party leader Dimitris Koutsoumpas told the crowd that the KKE is fighting to close all NATO and US bases in Greece and is opposed to the deployment of a single Greek soldier or officer abroad.”
Greek Railway Workers Refuse to Transport NATO Tanks Toward Ukraine
https://sputniknews.com/20220402/greek-railway-workers-reportedly-refuse-to-transport-nato-tanks-toward-ukraine-1094419495.html
Not all are buying the ziomedia bs, as one can see here.
I have much admiration for the Greek workers who dare challenge the Western agenda in Ukraine. I am happy to see that many Greek people are courageous, honest and they are not easily manipulated.
This was one positive thinking Ukrainian refugee :
That’s it!
The people of Ukraine love our President very much and dream that he will lead their country.
‼️🇬🇧🇺🇦🇩🇪 Here is such an interesting conversation that took place in Germany between a correspondent and one of the residents of Ukraine who came to the evacuation:
– What, in your opinion, should be the solution?
– A decision that will be better for Ukraine. Putin has already decided everything, everything will be fine with Ukraine.
– Is Putin good?
– Yes, Putin is good. Putin is my president! What else can I think?
– Where did you come from, if Putin is your president?
– I’m from Ukraine.
Apparently, among the refugees who came to Europe, there are not only those who paint the streets of German cities at night with fascist symbols, but also people who do not support the anti-people leadership of Ukraine and sympathize with Russia and its leader.
https://t.me/SHTABHDSHNR/13551
YOU’RE ON FIRE
(to be sung to the tune of “I’m On Fire”)
Hey little nazi did you give a groan
Is there nothing in your head but solid bone
You got a funeral pyre
Oh ho ho, you’re on fire.
Tell me now nazi was it good for you
To murder people just ’cause you could too
You were Nuland’s killer for hire
Oh ho ho, you’re on fire.
Sometimes you just take a knife nazi edgy and dim
And cut a swastika in a young girl’s skin
At night you sit up with your hopes unmet
The drugs in your blood all messin’ with your head
Only too
Late to step back, sire
Oh ho ho, you’re on fire
Oh ho ho, you’re on fire
In the end, it does not matter.
The long-term plan is to weaken the USA, right?
So tell me, how do you weaken an enemy by providing him with an excuse to sell even more weapons?
You realise that they’re doing it just to print dollars?
Russia halts gas shipments via Yamal pipeline to Europe.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-halts-gas-shipments-europe-critical-pipeline
Thanks for your effort Nightvision.
RF operations security is very tight and it’s difficult to get a clear picture of the RF Order of Battle, much less divine the RF’s plans in the SMO.
However Intel Slava Z channel on Telegram perhaps has given us a clue. Two recent videos are interesting:
One is a video of Colonel-General Alexander Lapin, Commander of the Central Military District, decorating soldiers in Chernihiv ie in the north of the Ukraine.
Another is a video of 8th Guards Combined Arms Army commander, Lt-General Andrey Mordvichev, in Mariupol together with Adam Delimkhanov, Chechen commander and also a member of the Duma.
As an observation, 8th Guards Combined Arms Army is not mentioned in the ‘uawardata’ map linked in the article.
This is my take:
Since this is primarily a land operation, including operations involving the Black Sea Fleet (naval infantry) near Odessa, the SMO field commander (operational-tactical) will be from the RF army — and is most probably the Central Mil District commander, Gen Lapin, who decorated the soldiers in the field. I’m guessing he’s commanding units drawn from the Western, Southern and Eastern districts, forming the equivalent of a task force like the RF task force in Syria. This will ensure that the military districts including the Western, Southern and Eastern districts remain able to mount ‘watch’ in their districts for other threats to RF security instead of being distracted by the SMO.
The strength in the SMO Task Force is probably three Armies (each equivalent to a Nato corps, approx 20-25,000 men) plus additional specialised land force units (Spetsnaz, CBRN, EW, AD, Aviation, etc); Airborne; units from the Black Sea Fleet; and Aerospace forces, in all totalling about 90 000 men. At the moment, this force is probably divided into two sector commands, northern and southern. BSF and RuAF units and tasking are most probably under command of the SMO commander — obviously they can be detached to the sector commanders if need be. Strategic weapons like Khinzal probably remain under command of the General Staff.
The militias of the LDNR are probably under the southern sector command, although some units from Lugansk could be detached to support the northern command.
The National Guard echelon (mainly forces from Chechnya at the moment) are deployed to clear and hold Mariupol and the surrounding areas. They’ll probably be redeployed to clear other areas once complete control of Mariupol has been attained and the city passed on to DPR.
Some combat forces — ‘bayonets’ and ‘sabres’ — ie infantry, armour and airborne, are probably kept in reserve in Russia and Belarus — not committed to any fighting but ready to deploy to support the SMO commander.
Nobody (except RF national command) knows what the forces withdrawn — this word, ‘withdrawn’, does not equate to ‘defeat’ — from the Kiev region are up to. Some say they’ve been moved east to support the Kharkov operation; perhaps this is likely correct. But it could also mean they’ve been moved further west in Belarus to attack the northern flank of AFU forces opposing RF forces west of Kiev. Or, to gain a foothold in the north in order to threaten an advance on Lvov. We will see.
I do not understand the obsession with BTGs. My understanding is that these are ‘ready units’ built around mechanised infantry with temporary attachments of other arms, particularly armour, artillery and AD, making them a sort of ‘combined arms battalion’ but I’m not sure they are the Russian basic manouvre units. I’m guessing the RF basic manouvre unit is a brigade and BTG is the ready battalion in the brigade.
Phase Two — in Sergei Shoigu’s words, the ‘liberation of the Donbass’ — will be hard and bloody not just for the AFU, but also RF forces. I believe, as in Phase One, RF will have to conduct a reconnaissance-in-force type of operation to discover and destroy the AFU units who are defending, in open ground, from and in prepared positions — with mines, obstacles, reinforced bunkers, etc — and most probably also defending in or near built-up areas. Further, they may, by now, have recovered some measure of command and control and thus be able to coordinate their action. The AFU’s disadvantages of course are that they’ll lack mobility, and will not be able to be resupplied or reinforced (no more reserves), and will not have air support.
Reinforcements are pouring over the border now. Russia will not be at a numercal advatage. As far as Kiev sending reinforcements, how are they escaping Russian Aviation?
not sure what you are saying….Russia has never been at a numerical advantage…reinforcements from where???? very vague remarks…………
they probably aren’t escaping, at least not all of them. Remember, the rumor stated that Zelensky and co said they PLAN to send xxxxxx amount of reinforcements, no one actually said he will succeed. For all we know, all 15,000 of the ‘reinforcements’ will be destroyed before they even get to the front line, or a large portion of them. For instance, new reports coming out just hours ago state that a new Russian Iskander missile hit an entire barracks in Kharkov with at least 200++ dead Ukie troops plus mercenaries it was housing. Many of these reinforcements will be slaughtered as they make their way to the frontline. The question is how many of them can make it through, it might not be alot
The attack on Russia’s fuel depot in Russia obviously flew over Belarus, both there & returning. Russia deploys S-300 low altitude anti-aircraft system. US & British Intel obviously came up with the plan & most likely provided the pilots. Now that won’t be happening again.
What are you talking about? You seriously think that they needed to lift of from POLAND?
This war for Russia can be a double-edged sword. They are fighting what is in essence a civil war in the Russian World. And because of that they have been able to rally unbelievable support inside Russia for the war. Even the liberal Levadia polling center says Putin’s support is now 83%.And the pro-Russian Telegram channels have exploded and are one of the most viewed media in Russia. The volunteer movement is all over Russia and there are countless public demonstrations of support throughout the country.All of that is an enormous advantage for the Russian government in this war.
But the other edge of the sword,is that there must be victory in this war. Defeat at the negotiating table is not an option the public will accept. Hopefully the government realizes that.That immense public support if betrayed,will not tolerate it. I read a report the other day saying sarcastically that actually today western agents are afraid they will get what they’ve wanted,a maidan in Russia. But they fear that idea of a maidan because would be a nightmare for them. That maidan would be a totally anti-Western one.
Today in just another example to show Russian public opinion. It showed a picture of Ukrainians roasting a pig on a spit with the word “Russians” painted on it. And they said:
“What is important to bring to the consciousness of every Russian layman? The fact that this is not some separate “excess of the performer” on a single Nazi channel, which is popular in Ukraine. Today it is the mainstream of sentiments in Ukrainian society. Two conclusions follow from this, which are contradictory only at first glance:
1) We should never become what we are fighting against. The war is not with the Ukrainian people, but with the misanthropic ideology that has captured the Ukrainian society
2) In no event can we lose this war. Otherwise, Russians will be roasted on a spit not figuratively, but literally.”
The key point for the Russian government to internalize is the second one,”in no event can we lose this war”.
https://t.me/SHTABHDSHNR/13571
Russia is not going to be a numerical disadvantage for this upcoming. I have friends in Russia that tell me reinforcements are pouring in. Column after Column as far as the eye can see. This has been planned for years. Every contingency has been planned for. Russia has many contacts in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They cannot move an inch without them being aware of it, more so since everyone knows which way the wind is blowing. Expect more Regime Purges over the next week or so.
As far as Kiev sending their own reinforcements, this is doubtful. Not in large numbers anyways.
It is not a question of if but only when the operation in the Donbass will be finished.
” This has been planned for years. Every contingency has been planned for. ”
Yet Russia failed to use masses of drones in the initial attacks ? Even after seeing their effectiveness in Syrian ad Armenia ?
Where is the element of surprise? It feels like a head-on attack in the Donbass may lead to nothing.
Better use the northern group to pin down the Ukrainian forces that are now being transferred to the left bank in anticipation of the much-touted attack. Destroy all bridges over the Dnepr and all Dnepr ferries to slow down their retreat and their supplies. Finally attack the road and rail networks.
Then use the southern group to create a wedge all the way to Transnistria, cutting off Odessa. Then turn northward and cut the country in two. “Take off the gloves”, smash your way through, the right bank is as lightly defended as it is heavily Banderite anyways.
I don’t envy this nazi. On the one hand he survived and seems to be being treated decently. But his story about just being swept along by fate. And that he wasn’t a committed nazi just got proved a lie. His smartphone was opened and he was a “bad boy” after all:
Photo from the phone of a nationalist from Azov, Aleksey Smykov, who surrendered.
What can I say – these are sick people !!
Alexey told us in an interview that he simply went to Azov to block military service and does not welcome any Nazi ideology. And we ourselves thought
– the young kid apparently did – stupidity. But it turned out – a wolf in sheep’s clothing …
But he apparently forgot that his videos and photos were not deleted on the smartphone. Well, or did you think that they would not be able to open it? But they could. And they were very surprised.
https://t.me/SHTABHDSHNR/13574
All those US planes are not just spontaneously losing air worthiness or the pilots their skills.. we need to give strong consideration to the fact that the US military personnel have been compromised and are ticking time bombs.
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2021/09/army-flight-surgeon-says-pilots-risk-sudden-cardiac-death-from-covid-vaccine-side-effect/
Well said. I would remark, in addition, that the injections are said to cause various neurological difficulties…as Bruce Willis may illustrate…and thus both flight engineers, navigators, and ground crew may be far less able to maintains essential performance quality. In some rare cases it may even be that ground staff don’t give a chit…something close to sabotage…and some say (smoothiex12 for example), that the enlisted are poorly led. Bad officers cause results close to sabotage. I seem to recall a fine officer gentleman … Pomperz…who bragged about violating his West Point Oath…imagine that…and then of course the boys and girls do get caught up in scandals…
Yes, those are additional factors. Things fall apart at the outpost bases. Loss of idealism, morale, discipline and performance capabilities. Who wants to die or even try hard for lies? Social-media connected youth are often savvy. Also they do not train as much as Russians. Timing will be everything. I shudder to think of the fate of many of these youth when they find themselves stranded 10,000 klicks from home among natives who have waited lifetimes for retribution. In fact, this may be a tidy way for AZE to cut its losses and finish deep-sixing the US military.
Willis likely had a stroke leading to the usual sequela. The effects of venous thromboembolism, already higher on sedentary long-haul high-altitude flights, is catastrophically increased with the increased tendency for coagulation due to these products. It particularly affects the aviators. Note the panicked warning was issued by a flight surgeon.
The reality is AZE does not have much of conventional effectiveness to field. Maybe they counted on no significant need by the Spring of 2022, due to the course of events? Mr. Gates recently lamented the natural immunizing properties of the Omicron wave.. Other sides had moves too; I am thinking of the Lord and Russian-Chinese counter-biowarfare units.
They got ahead of themselves by the premature demolition of US military. The process began long before. The coagulants are the coup de grâce. The course was inflexibly maintained as if Russia remained in the prone state of the 1990s. They stuck to Rummy’s lean merc/SOF hybrid war units which are of no use against Tank Armies and conventional combined arm forces, not to mention hypersonics and unmatched homecourt logistics. They are down to the media megaphone and the nuclear bullet.
Meanwhile, Bergoglio had veiled harsh words for Putin; I’m less concerned (as a sedevacantist) by this clown, but the sooner this whore is exposed for what he is, the better it is.
Sad Mariupol is so damaged. Nice city.
Blame the UKN rebels holding out who should have surrendered weeks ago.
US troops have in the main have always been badly trained except for special units.
They give them a 6 week training course and call them soldiers when it takes years.
In WW2 the average GI were regarded as being like children by British forces the way most behaved.
It appears little has changed – they get highly equipped and overpaid and many arent up to the task.
It probably why they lost in Vietnam.
Russia should put out a $2 or $5 million reward for anyone who turns over the 2 UKN criminals with mistreated Russian prisons last weekend. I guarantee some UKN troops or people would go hunt them down and turn them over for it.
I have read that in WW1 a US Rifle Squad had about a year of hard training. Standards have fallen victim to vice and lies. I seem to recall a motto ” non videri sed esse ” One might invert the meaning for the US forces today, especially for the leadership, of course this was problem in WW2, Korea, Vietnam, and the numerous other helpful efforts at bringing the blessings of democracy to the unwashed.
Russia has done an incredible job imho. I am no military expert and simply learn from what I’ve read over the years. That being said if these stories are true about the US/Nato continuing to send more tanks, weapons and now chemical weapons protection, Russia needs to go full scale assault. Can’t Russia have their troops and the Chechens retreat and then bomb these regions?
They are not going to win the information war with the dummies in the West. I truly feel deep sadness for the population being held captive in Ukraine but Russia needs to eliminate as many of the remaining proxy fighters asap. Russia will stand to lose many more soldiers and their own citizens if the US stages a chemi attack. The US/Israel is starting up crap with Azerbaijan and Armenia again and now Pakistan. It’s too much. Go for it! Now!
“It seems western experts will be doing a lot of face-saving and backtracking in the coming days as they realize that Russia still has lots of reinforcements left to inject into the various fronts.”
After losing millions of soldiers in WWII, it approached Berlin with about 5 million soldiers. That’s when it had a population of around 190 million. I think Western experts, usually retired U.S. army Generals, who have agreed virtually on everything with TV hosts, acting as if to prove their hosts right, have given maybe all the information about how they think, a most important thing to know, also much of what they know, the quality of the courses they took, maybe what they missed, which books they know, and maybe the conclusion cannot be much different from that of a non-expert: “If you agree with her/him on everything, how do they know as much as you without going to military school?” It was mostly in black or white: Ukrainians are winning, Russians are losing, and how! “Please don’t do this”, the viewer says. The same applies to intelligence agents, i.e., like John Brennan (“Senior” something title at MSNBC, so below this TV network now), who work for TV networks giving out precious information as if to make a fantasy come true. Somebody should inform that it’s not about opinions, and that not having the latest govt. reports does not make it all right! Like with the Generals, sagacious experts can know ‘core things’ they work to know by watching a lot of Generals or Spies “perform” on TV regularly, as if taking a test! They asked John Brennan why. He basically answered: I want to speak. I need to speak. I have a right to speak. These answers alone give volumes of information. I don’t wish to mention a singer in this context, but did you notice that Elvis was never really out there to be viewed as a person like you or I? His manager, Col. Parker, wanted him to sing, act, and wrap all the rest in a mystery. That was for just a singer! Presley could also have been in all the shows…It should be forbidden by law.
“So I will stick my neck out and predict that the cauldron collapse will be more rapid than people expect now…”
If they drop some leaflets WWII style on them, it can be quicker for sure. Every Ukrainian soldier should have a page with 10-15 photos of their Commander in Chief’s 2014 dance video. In WWII, don’t know exactly how, but it would have been used. Such honest PR (done right) makes “surrender” become the honorable thing. Such PR can’t be “nice” to the other side, and not using this is to be “nice.” Then when the whole population gets to see the actual video, plus your own case, and maybe everything about the difference between Putin and Ze is clear then. (You take the video to the max., absolutely. You stop when it doesn’t give you anymore.)
Shamanov may have told by the commandos who grabbed the UKN criminals last Tuesday they they were the ones who it did the mistreatment of the Russian prisoners last weekend, but they may have only been other members of the group, not the ringleaders.
The exact details needs to be clarified.
A big $ reward* offered for them may see bounty hunters across the UKN after them.
*Per my other comment even $2m is an enormous amount for the average Ukrainian even split among a few people.
Things ‘being announced’ include:
Zelensky saying he wants the $300bn of Russian Forex reserves frozen by Western mafia families ‘to rebuild Ukraine’.
What that means is that he understands that 25% of that money will be kickbacks for the Ukrainian Mafia – which totals $75bn of gorgeous lolly. No doubt he would be happy with 10% of those kickbacks reaching his network of foreign banks highlighted in the Panama Papers.
Things NOT being announced include:
The Pope-like Zelensky commenting that the USA might well be required to refund the construction of Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, all of which it so thoughtfully bombed to a pulp over 20 years of illegal global warmongering.
I’m sure Zelensky knows which side his mafia bread is buttered, so the chances of him being ‘diplomatically even-handed’ anytime soon is no doubt close to zero.
Sorry for being so cynical, but it is one of the effects of a never-ending bombardment of claptrap on my disobedient consciousness.
So proud of the FVD in our country. We have called names, they try to wipe us out. The hate is beyond everything to all FVD’ers in the Netherlands. But we see what is happening we are awake and we stand with Russia. We hold our line en we keep fighting this Nazi’s 💪..
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/39051 Colonel Cassad reporting Belgorod hospital received Russian exchanged POWs having been horribly tortured (chopped off fingers and testicles). If true, Ukros are pure evil. Thing is, nobody dares do that to American or Israeli POWs, knowing whole towns would be razed to the ground. This humane, soft approach has not worked with Banderites in 1954 and it will not work now.
ANNA-NEWS|News|Syria|Donbass|Nagorno-Karabakh
forwarded from
Poddubny |V| |Z| edition
❗️From the Belgorod hospital:
“We exchanged 50 prisoners of war Ukrainian soldiers treated in our hospital in Belgorod for ours. Our fingers on our hands are chopped off, the reproductive organs are cut off. Nurses do not rest for three days, they cry, they go for dressings. The guys are all screwed up. …
No words. But you need to know this.”
@epoddubny
Pure evil knows only evil. It sees anything good or just as weakness.
You can’t talk to such people.
Americans and Japanese fought in WW2, they hated each other, did inexplicable things to each other. Americans dropped not one, but two atomic bombs to civilian tows, killing hundreds of thusands.
Ironically, Japanese don’t hate the Americans now, on the contrary. They allow the de facto occupation to this day, without fighting back. They are beyond pacified.
Russians must learn from history and learn better.
So far apparently Russian MOD has denied this and said all prisoners are ok but people are still looking into it. It’s either a propaganda rumor or I heard there’s possibility that the mutilation/mistreatment was in reference to some discovered bodies that were buried. But as of right now I’m seeing that the exchanged soldiers are not mutilated. But we’ll all keep an eye on the reports as they continue to come
Just so everyone understands that not all Americans are stupid and blind to the crimes of “Nazi” thugs.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/04/02/brett-baier-asks-volodymyr-zelenskyy-about-azov-battalion-reportedly-shooting-pows/
To paraphrase Forest Gump, “Nazis is as Nazi does.”
Just use several FOAB s and be done with it.
Just Nuke them – Kill them all – gloves should be taken off – The Ukrops need to be dealt with lie the Americans dealt with the Japanese in WWII
The Russians need to understand that hatred an bestiality can only be met with vengeance
forget about human rights etc
I’ve read on Rozhin’s Telegram that 50 of Russians, which were exanchged recently with Ukrainian POWs, came to Belgogrod hospital with horrible mutilations.
I hope every single one of the victims will get justice. Disgusting Banderovites, diabolical beasts, they deserve the highest possible punishment.
Checking back on that story I found this…
By WILL STEWART FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 17:45, 21 March 2022 | UPDATED: 15:30, 22 March 2022
“The owner of a war-zone mobile hospital in eastern Ukraine has told a Ukrainian TV interviewer that he has instructed his doctors to ‘castrate’ captured Russian soldiers.
Gennadiy Druzenko, 49, made the extraordinary remark during an interview with Ukrainian TV – saying: ‘I have always been a great humanist and said that if a man is wounded, he is no longer an enemy but a patient.
‘But now [I gave] very strict orders to castrate all [captured Russian] men, because they are cockroaches, not people.’
But he later clarified, saying no order to castrate prisoners had been given and that his hospital ‘saves lives, period.’ However, he then added on Facebook: ‘We are going to kill. Not prisoners – [but] brutal b*****ds who rape my land.’
Since 2014, some 500 doctors – male and female – have worked with Druzenko’s mobile hospital.
A lawyer by training, he set up the First Voluntary Mobile Hospital which deploys civilian doctors and nurses in the conflict zone close to the separatist republics in eastern Ukraine.
He also told famous Russian TV host Yevgeny Kiselyov on the Ukraine-24 channel: ‘Believe, all doctors who saved the patients – Russians will die here. Die in large numbers.
‘Those who [come here] will remember their nightmare on Ukrainian soil.
‘Like the Germans remember Stalingrad.’
The Russian Investigative Committee opened a criminal case into the comments, which means that if Druzenko is captured he will face trial under Russian law.
‘The head of the Ukrainian Mobile Hospital project, Gennady Druzenko, called for violence against captured soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces live on a Ukrainian TV channel.
‘He gave this instruction to the doctors of mobile hospitals.’
The head of the committee Alexander Bastrykin, a former university classmate of Vladimir Putin, initiated a criminal case over his castration demand which is ‘contrary to the law and the norms of medical ethics.’
Druzenko is set to be put on Russia’s international wanted list.”
I suspect the ‘our nazis are good nazis’ narrative is going to crash and burn.
I have to withold my judgment on this last revelation about 50 Russian soldier. Russian MoD denies any sign of torture of them.
(Castration Posts May Not be True, let’s hope so!):
Operation Z: Military Correspondents of the Russian Spring
‼️Again about the torture of prisoners
Dear readers, for half a day we find out about the crippled exchanged prisoners, so far we have not received any confirmation, and there are many denials – they are from those whom we trust.
The information on the network is contradictory, denials replace confirmations, then again denials of confirmations. Let’s wait for information.
Yevgeny Poddubny, a source in the Ministry of Defense has already denied the data on the castration of prisoners:
“Complete lies! All 86 tested nothing at all! There was information about the deceased, they searched, but it was not confirmed.”
We have the same denials from sources. We are inclined to believe that 99% is not true. We are waiting for the final information.
t.me/RVvoenkor _
(Another point of view, it is true but being censored)
Voenkor Kitten Z
Political scientist Nikolai Sevostyanov especially for the channel “Voenkor Kotenok Z”
@voenkorKotenok
1) More and more news about bestial sadism towards Russian prisoners of war. There are reports of gouged out eyes, chopped off fingers, severed genitals. Something is confirmed, something is not yet, but it can no longer be hidden. At the same time, an important point is that under each post on this topic, an army of bots immediately appears, which, like a blueprint, chases the same type of messages on the topic that all this is “a provocation and a fake.” Sometimes right through copy-paste.
2) Why is it hushed up? Everything is very simple. In Russia, the forces that are commonly called the “Party of Peace” are still very strong. In fact, the world has nothing to do with it. This is the “party of traitors”, those who, more than anything else, want to “roll back” the situation to the level of February 23rd. That is, so that “independent” Ukraine would continue to be pumped up with weapons and hatred, Russians in the Donbass would die from shelling and hopelessness, but the planes to Milan would fly on schedule.
3) These same people today are lobbying for the conclusion of a “peace treaty” with a gang of Nazis and drug addicts. And for them, the question of price is not worth it. The main thing is to save your own skin and your own capital. All these training manuals about “good APU” and “bad national battalions” go through them. And it is clear that any news about the torture of Russian soldiers does not exactly fit into these training manuals. On the contrary, they instantly torpedo all these attempts to reach some kind of agreement that can be presented as a victory.
4) Now about the sadists themselves. Everything is very simple here. We need specific names and specific parts. And those units whose commanders allowed something like this to be carried out should not count on captivity. As in the Civil War, Latvians could not count on captivity. And in the Great Patriotic War – scumbags from “Dirlewanger”. In this case, only the total destruction of the units responsible for what happened is appropriate. They are no longer people, and they will definitely not become people again.
5) But if we talk about the root cause, then what is happening is based on the fact that Svidomo propaganda really managed to burn out everything Russian in these people. Because the Russians never do that. Not in any war. It’s not even Europe with its centuries-old mass killing machine. This is precisely animal Asian sadism, which in Ukraine has become a national idea. And from that moment on, Ukraine as a state has no right to exist.
@voenkorKotenok
Yes, I am inclined to believe that sadist torture of Russian captives happens and that it is hushed up. Perhaps not to hurt morale of troops or because of 5th column activity or whatever. It fits nicely together with general experience that Ukrainians are full of genocidal hatred. Ukrainian Telegram channels show mocking and disrespecting dead Russian soldiers and it looks plausible they have taken ugliness even few steps more far.
I fully believe the reports, and it only shows that the Ukrops are very shortsighted in their evil, because it’s a very bad idea to treat people so viciously if you are completely at their mercy.
Whatever we armchair commentators in our warm comfy apartments or villas think – not really important. But what do the Russian soldiers think when they hear this? You can’t censor the grunt grapewine. These stories are a threat to morale IF the soldiers are not allowed to response in kind. Nice war is an illusion. The Ukr army went through 8+ years of NATO indoctrination, plus the majority of officers are from western Ukraine anyway, so no friends of Russia. I think it really is time to drop the illusion that this can be a soft or nice war. Just get it done with all there is or get out and try to minimize the damage.
Zelensky played a history teacher who became president in Servant to the People but he himself doesn’t know much about history himself.
A few days ago he told the Belgian parliament in a video speech that the Battle of Mariupol was a worse battle than the Battle of Ypres.
To begin with there wasn’t a single Battle of Ypres but five, including the famous Battle of Passchendaele. And over ONE MILLION soldiers died during these battles.
The reckoning will come soon:
Endless columns of the second echelon (https://t.me/informburo_sfd/149542). The troops go to the largest battlefield of our time – to the Donbass
There is a felling on an unprecedented scale, countless hundreds of thousands of soldiers from both sides. They are all of the same tribe, but the West created an anti-Russian golem from our flesh and blood and threw it into a suicidal attack on their brothers
And from one side and the other, the people whose ancestors took Berlin, we look at our reflection in a distorted mirror, and this is not only a great tragedy, but also an opportunity to look at our shortcomings from the outside. Much blood should not be shed just like that, we must draw conclusions and learn the lesson well.
The time for half-measures and eyewash has passed, now if we take on something, then we give all our best at 100%. We will not be forgiven for our mistakes and slackness, they intended to erase us from history, to destroy us as such, to erase the memory of us and trample into dust, there is no other way for us. Well, we can’t give up
For work
@OpenUkraine
Telegram (https://t.me/informburo_sfd/149542)
InformBuro-Southern Federal District 💤
The endless columns of the second echelon inspire quiet horror at the enemy, who is trying to strain to joke in social networks.
https://t.me/OpenUkraine/12010
Another Turkish piece of crap shot down. These toys no longer pose any threat to Russian forces and makes about the 40th or so that has been destroyed already
https://i.postimg.cc/Y9byB1Gh/FPXP42j-Xs-AIELAc.jpg
Nightvision:
Do you think they’ll use Avangard to get the war over more quickly? If you used that where the Ukrainians are concentrated in the Donbas, it would be like getting hit by a meteor. It could penetrate any defense. Potentially more powerful than a nuke.
Also, what do you think of Russia now being accused of mass murder in Bucha? Staged or the UK’s killed civilians to blamed Russia?
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1510316881340780549
Be careful with content. Mod.
No, Avangard is not a tactical battlefield level weapon. It offers no real advantage on a battlefield whatsoever over more conventional weapons like Iskander. Avangard is for strategic level ability to strike command centers and homelands abroad at a moment’s notice i.e. being able to precisely strike a target in a U.S. capital if need be without necessarily using a nuke, and at near Mach 30 it would get there very fast so the target would have very little time for escape.
For battlefield level operations there’s far more suitable weapons that Russia is already using and will continue to use like both Iskander M and K, the various cruise missiles like Kaliber, KH-101, Kinzhal, Bastion etc. etc. The point of Avangard is really to be able to hit the opposite side of the world within minutes in a non-nuclear fashion (though it CAN be armed with nuclear warhead, but that’s not really its main point as there are already plenty undefeatable nuclear ICBM’s Russia has).
As for the Bucha mass murders, I’m seeing a lot of people strewn on highways as well and some are speculating that Ukrainian forces were shelling Russian forces as Russians pulled out from those regions and all the wild shelling hit the people. But at the least some of the setups, like from your picture, to me look like the people were previously murdered and bodies dumped there. My likeliest explanation is that various of the “saboteurs”, traitors, etc that the Volkssturm have been killing in the Kiev region for a while now, their bodies were gathered up and dumped around Russia’s retreat to create a provocation/falseflag. In short, these are likely bodies killed by Ukrainian forces and other Volkssturm/gangster/hooligan elements all over Kiev, and now they are putting them to secondary use. Why waste a bunch of bodies when you can sprinkle them all over and blame it on Russia.
We’ll see if any footage or further evidence starts coming out that could give us a better idea but I’m sure the Ukrop nazis killed them in one way or another because we have seen numerous verified instances/videos of them shooting/killing civilians from the very first days of the war specifically in the Kiev region and we know this is something they really love to do and have no problem with.
It gets worse,the scum in the media in the UK are talking about children being mutilated and whole families shot,sorry to be so graphic but thats the narrative the media are using here,what struck me about the video was the bodies looked like they were arranged,and there was a lack of blood.
Yep which is why it really seems to me these are bodies Ukraine repurposed for 2ndary objectives. They were likely people already killed as saboteurs and whatever various other reasons Ukie troops continue killing civilians all the time. Ukie troops abuse civilians daily in Kiev https://www.bitchute.com/video/uX0MGBcXB0iD/
Russia currently seems to have only a small handful of Avangards. The latest confirmed number from the end of 2021 stood at four or so. The planned number when fully deployed is said to be in the low dozens. This must mean that Avangard is a very expensive piece of kit. Would such a delivery vehicle ever be used to deliver conventional strikes? Long-range cruise missiles carried by intercontinental bombers might be almost as useful in such a role. Then, for all the talk about Russia’s non-hypersonic i.e. less maneuverable long-range missiles being indefeatable, maybe they are not so indefeatable after all. The Russians often boast about their capabilities but, at the same time, they still seem to worry a lot. They also have to take into account that current anti-missile capabilities, as lacking as they might be, might get upgraded over time for them to become a real threat. Putin has made statements where he pointed out exactly that. The purpose of Avangard may, thus, be twofold: 1) Allow for attacking the ground-based anti-missile defense to open the way for the non-hypersonic missiles in a wider nuclear war. 2) Be available as guaranteeed means of counter-attack in a nuclear blackmail-type war, where the enemy strikes with only one or a very few warheads. In such a war it’s required to be able to get past the anti-missile defense with a similarly small number of warheads. Otherwise, the enemy who has anti-missile defense might think that the attacked might refrain from retaliating because the only option for the attacked would consist of firing a great many more missiles to try and get past the defense which, however, runs the risk of all-out escalation. In any type of war, Avangard would never be used in a conventional role.
There are major things going on in Poland. The U.S. wants to take Kaliningrad and Belarus by fall. Only dramatic and most energetic full scale war effort by Russia in Ukraine could derail that plan.
Attacking Belarus or Kalinigrad means things could get nuclear. In Kaliningrad there are Iskanders with nukes with small nuclear 50 kiloton warheads, which will wipeout entire NATO armoured columns. Also there is a lot Russian troops and armour in Belarus.
Here’s my main question.
From the beginning and even now, the presumption was, as Scott Ritter has said repeatedly, that Russia went into Ukraine with up to 200-250,000 troops against Ukraine’s 250,000 (plus 300,000 reserves that Scott counts but I don’t because we don’t know how many of those actually entered combat or their level of training.) That’s a 1 to 1 matching, or 3 to 1 if you count the Ukrainian reserves.
But your count indicates only 50,000 Russian troops actually in Ukraine, perhaps as high as 100,000. That’s a 4 or 5 to 1 disadvantage for the Russians. Would they even do that?
Did those 200-250,000 Russian troops ever exist? Or are the reports of large numbers of armor still sitting inside Russia on the Ukrainian border indicate that most of the force remains in reserve?
Because if half or more of the Russian force is still sitting inside Russia, then the only conclusion possible is that the “invasion” in fact has not even begun! That the current operation is just intended to do one thing – destroy the Donbass Ukrainian force. And that would explain why additional units are being pulled from the Kiev region to reinforce the units in Donbass – that Russia miscalculated how many forces would be needed to destroy the Donbass forces.
But if that is the case, why not bring in some of those reserves still inside Russia (if they exist) instead of moving forces from the Kiev region?
In other words, something is wrong here. I’m not saying Russia made a mistake, but there’s too much that doesn’t add up. So someone’s estimate of the relative forces seems to be wrong.
Any idea what’s going on?
As an aside, I like that the UAWarData guy actually lists the units. This is much better than some maps, even the Defense Politics Asia guy, that don’t describe who is doing what where or why units are being positioned as they are. At least the DPA guy describes rail heads and road junctions which have tactical value. Most of the maps don’t explain why forces are positioned where they are. The “this town has been taken, that town has been taken” is completely useless for understanding the progress of the war. What matters is what Ukrainian assets have been destroyed, where the remaining assets are, and what Russia forces need to be moved to take them.
Truth is no one knows for certain. Scott Ritter I presume is just repeating numbers he’s heard elsewhere, and those people got it from the ‘Pentagon’ who just made up the highest number they can think of to scare monger the world that the brutal Russian ‘barbarians’ are coming to take your children. The reality is the true troop dispositions are secret for obvious reasons, Russia would never publish the exact amount they are using nor WHERE they are deployed. We can only speculate and try to piece things together. It’s POSSIBLE Russia has used 150k+ troops, almost anything is possible, we don’t know for certain. But I am merely presenting other possibilities supported with evidence that go against the one way tide of the Pentagon/west’s questionable numbers.
Also don’t forget DPR / LPR likely have somewhere in the 20-40k range as well, which is counted separately. As to your question about why would Russia go in with a smaller force, well simply because:
1. It’s not like Ukraine’s entire 200-500k force is concentrated in one area, many of their forces are dispersed or also held in reserve in the west of the country and not actively utilized (yet) on the battlefield.
2. Russia knows it has the massive technological superiority and airpower advantage which for obvious reasons nullifies or equalizes the disparity in troops. For instance 50k with air support can likely defeat 100-200k without air support, etc.
The other thing is, I think that Ukraine’s forces are likely also greatly exaggerated. On paper they have a vast amount but I have a feeling a huge amount of them fled, mutinied, etc., and the actual amount they can call to arms or form effective organized units with is likely much smaller than expected as well.
Thanks for all the work you do on these. Invaluable.
Where do you have the odds the purported move toward Donbass and a massive conflict is a feint? I understand no one knows, but I would be interested to hear your opinion.
It’s worth nothing, but my gut tells me Donbass area is Stage 3 or even 4 and the next move will be somewhere else. I have no idea where. Transnistria? West of Kiev? I just don’t think RUS wants to slow the tempo and lock themselves into a set piece and lose sig men yet (other than Mariopul). I put it about 60/40 against a large set piece battle at this point. Can’t RUS just keep the eastern forces bottled up and accomplish other objectives? And don’t they need to preserve manpower for a possible NATO invasion?
But, I have been wrong about every single thing so far. Everything. RUS has been masterful.
Well there ARE some signals that Russia will be doing a big Nikolayev offensive. Allegedly the Ukie command claims that Russia is ‘accumulating large amounts of armor’ near Kherson. So this is the only thing I can think of to answer your speculation, where Russia may push a large thrust to capture/surround Nikolayev and onto Odessa instead. And in fact there’s also been another recent spate of Ukie squawking about the fact that RF landing ships near Odessa are again threatening to land soon. This could be all b.s. or propaganda but this is the closest I can think of, a surprise grab for Odessa/Nikolayev while continuing keeping the Donbass cauldron pinned for now.
So you could be right. One of the reasons I think there’s some possibility to this is because we know that stretch of land from Kherson – Nikolayev – Odessa is much more important to Russia than the eastern bank of Dnieper and Russia could want to take that much more expediently than the Donbass cauldron, which it might be happy to prosecute over a longer course of time. The reason being is that we know Russia has already been connecting various civil infrastructures into the towns of the Kherson region, such as today I read they connected some fiber internet directly from Crimea to Kherson and surrounding area, and this is already on top of bringing in civil workers to take over some of the administrative tasks and the whole Ruble and broadcasting stuff we’ve already talked about here.
And these steps take time to integrate into Russia’s administrative infrastructure so they likely want to start the integration in the areas they want to keep ‘Russified’ as quickly as possible. So I could foresee them wanting to grab all the way to Odessa so that they can begin building this civil infrastructure asap and disconnecting the areas from the Ukie structure. Donbass on the other hand it’s not necessarily in as much of a hurry to grab (at least those western parts of it near the Dnieper).
With that said I think the next phase they will still continue pushing north on the current fronts in south Donbass even if they do redistribute the main spearhead towards Nikolayev / Odessa / Krivoy Rog, etc., I don’t think they would completely stop the southern front thrust, it would just in that case be a smaller, slower thrust to keep the Ukie troops there tied down and guessing.
@Nightvision:
What about “all of those”, but with different intensities and different tactics? Yes, it would require far more power, but it would also prevent west ukraine from focussing reinforcements(counterstrikes) on any particular region?
I think they could do both simultaneously. I know quite a large Russian force moved through Crimea sometime ago (70,000 to 90,000), I assumed they parked in and around Kherson. Again though, Mykolaiv is fair size city, Just under 500,000. It could be Mariupol all over again. Same problem faced with Odessa which is even bigger.
How do you solve this problem? You don’t want to destroy the city, but if it is entrenched defense, no other choice, other than laying siege. Also, I don’t think either of these two cities has done any civilian evacuations at all.
It is a shame that this whole operation was such an intelligence failure. In talking with my Russian friends, it seems that there was an expectation that many of these cities elites were going to rise up when the invasion started. That never happened. It seems they got cold feet at the last minute fearing retribution by the Bandera Scum. Kharkov was the biggest failure. Many like me always thought of as a Russian city. A lot of Special Ops should have been active both before and on invasion day. I guess 8 years of indoctrination did its work. Ukraine really is a broken nation with a broken people.
Thanks Nightvision. Very helpful.
Thanks for your response.
The thing is, I believe that in order for Russia to achieve it security objectives in Ukraine, they need to “capture” (to use Gonzalo Lira’s term) the entirety of Ukraine from Donbass to the Polish border.
This can’t be done with 50-100,000 troops. Maybe 100,000 with air support. But not 50,000. It doesn’t matter about the possibility of Ukrainian forces fleeing, because Russian planners would not have counted on that. They would have assumed a full 250,000 Ukraine forces over Ukraine, with half in Donbass. That’s simply what I would have done, not being a military planner.
So if Russia sends in 50,000, sure, they can pin Kiev and take Donbass. But that leaves a potential 100,000 Ukrainians scattered in cities over Ukraine. Granted, they now have less effective troops and armor, since most of those are in Donbass. But they would still be a problem for only 50,000 Russian forces, even with air power.
So I have to assume that Russia had reserves inside Russia. There were allegedly reports of large forces still inside Russia, but I can’t find any confirmation of that. I did find a report that says half the 200 helicopters sent to Belarus are still in reserve in airfields north of the airfields supporting the helicopters taking part in the Kiev front. So that indicates to me that there are still significant reserves – perhaps half – still inside Russia and Belarus.
So I predict that once the Donbass is reduced, the existing 50-100,000 Russian forces, plus the LDR, plus whatever is inside Russia, will make a big push across Ukraine to the Polish border. The remaining 100,000 Ukrainian forces, weakened by logistics destruction and less armor, won’t be able to deal with a combined Russian force of 150-200,000 troops.
People have repeatedly said Russia can’t “occupy” Ukraine with even 250,000 troops. I’ve assumed that Russia doesn’t want to “occupy”, but rather to “capture”, Ukraine. So it doesn’t need 400,000 or more. It just needs to control strategic areas while it sorts out the new Ukrainian government.
But if it only has 50-100,000 troops inside Ukraine and no significant reserves, then it probably can’t do that. Which would mean it’s only going to liberate Donbass and do nothing else. This means de-militarization and de-Nazification are equally limited goals, not pertaining to all of Ukraine.
But that doesn’t achieve Russia’s security needs in Ukraine, in my view. So arguing backward, I assume Russia has considerably more forces either inside Ukraine or both inside Ukraine and inside Russia for the next phases of the operation. I think the Donbass reduction is only phase 2, and there will be a phase 3 or more.
But I wish I had better numbers about the relative forces. Otherwise it’s a waste of time speculating.
Well, I think when most people said it can’t be “occupied” they mean capture also because when you capture you HAVE to leave a defending force of some modest size to defend the cities in your rear. And so the further you go into enemy territory the more forces you’re having to expend as basically occupation garrisons in every area you leave behind because there can always be various sneak attacks, guerilla/partisan warfare etc. And also the fact that the further you go the longer your supply lines which have to be protected against guerilla attacks so you have to have more and more forces to constantly guard those longer and longer supply lines. So that’s why even conquering the entirety of such a large country is often said to be impossible with anything less than at least 500k – 1million troops. But with that said, when USSR invaded Afghanistan, I believe the initial invading force was 80k while the Mujihideen total force was probably similar to Ukrainian numbers 200-250k. After a couple weeks USSR force increased to 100k and as I understand it peaked at 115k at any given time, although they were helped with an additional 60k from Afghan security forces. I say this because Afghanistan is actually similar in size to Ukraine (similar in population too NOW, but back then it was much less population), I think they’re both in the 600 – 650,000km2 size, and USSR occupied most of the important areas of the country as I understand it. So it may be possible but of course that’s an entirely different situation. On the other hand USSR / Warsaw Pact invaded Czechoslovakia in ’68 with like 500k or so, so it’s hard to say what’s really possible and a lot probably depends on how friendly the conquered cities/territories end up being towards Russian troops etc and thus how much manpower they have to expend on controlling those cities.
There is where Russia needs to use volunteers from Russia. There are huge numbers of Russians trying to volunteer for service in Ukraine,many or most of them previously trained in the Russian military. Using them as a military/police force, buttressed by local pro-Russian Ukrainians,themselves more than likely with military training. Should be enough,together with a small Russian regular military force to hold and reshape all the liberated areas.Most especially in the pro-Russian ,Ukrainian South and East (Novorossia) Oblasts. Replace the pro-Ukrainian officials,repress the pro-Ukrainian nazi groups,and encourage the local population to take power over those territories. That would create vast safe areas in the South and East. Leaving the Russian troops free to liberate the rest of the current Ukraine. And then the political reshaping can really begin.
«So if Russia sends in 50,000, sure, they can pin Kiev and take Donbass. But that leaves a potential 100,000 Ukrainians scattered in cities over Ukraine.»
A guy who knew about these things said “an army marches on its belly”. It does not matter who many soldiers you got if they don’t have supplies, and a modern brigade consumes a truly colossal amount of supplies every day.
The russian phase 1 was to take out all the ruthenian logistics, and they have done a lot of work towards that. It was not to take territory. It is pretty obvious that the Russian Federation needs to have, and can have, an enormous logistical advantage over their ruthenian opponents. It does not matter how fanatical and dug in the ruthenian fascists are, if they cannot get resupplied.
From my armchair I would have first sent columns from western Belarus south to seal the polish-romanian-ukrainian border, even at the cost of losing them all eventually, but I guess the real russian generals thought it was too risky and their own supply lines too long.
A little detail: if I were the Russian Federation I would offer Moldova a return of southern Bessarabia as long as they remained “friendly”, but then there is already Transnistria there to block most resupply routes from Romania to central and southern Ukraine.
I’m tired of explaining this over and over. Do a websearch for “Maneuver War” and “Blitzkrieg”, then add modern cruise missiles and long range artillery to the mix, capable of striking far beyond the frontlines.
Russia has not done a traditional “invasion”. That was never the plan, at least for phase 1. Instead the goal of phase 1 was to outsmart the enemy and destroy most of his equipment, without having to engage in a frontal war. Now that the ukrainians are down to infantry and choppers – nearly all armor, planes and artillery destroyed – different tactics will be used for phase 2.
Hi Richard,
This has been done before, not often, but it has. For example, in 1941, in North African desert, on the Libya-Egypt frontier, before Rommel arrived in to take command of the Axis forces:
Operation Compass – 1941
36,000 mobile British verses 150,000 immobile Italians (1 attacker to 5 defenders)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Compass
In that case the Italians collapsed very quickly, which probably won’t be the case this time. However, the main point to take away is that if the larger force becomes immobilized, because of lack of transport, fuel, water or air cover, the smaller force can have free run of the battle field.
If it does turn out that Russia only attacked with 50,000 – 60,000 then it suggests to me that this war gamed out well in advance and we are witnessing a tremendous amount of military skill, contrary to everything reported in the Western media.
And as a disclaimer, I am Russian biased, and have been following the whole thing in the Russian language media (small blogs & news sites) as the Russians move from village to village and from bridge to bridge and putting it all on Google Earth. I gave up on Western media about 5 years ago, once I discovered they were lying to their viewers & readers… and wrote them off completely when Andrei Nekrasov’s film came out about the Magnitsky Act with Bill Browder having like a half dozen different versions of events.
So, all IMHO
We know that Russian initial invasion force into Georgia was about 20k then grew to 40-50k+ later on. Of course Georgia is much smaller with far smaller military but just giving an example. And as I just wrote elsewhere, USSR invading force into Afghanistan in 79 was about 80k and remember USSR army was far bigger than current Russian armed forces, and Afghanistan was roughly similar in land-size and army size to current Ukraine. Just things to think about that makes it at least a remotely plausible possibility that Russia only used 100k or less so far rather than the “200k” the western media claims.
I agree. 100,000 tops. I’ve heard a recent Ritter interview and he also says the same.
Ritter has an interesting theory. He believes that the Federal Security Service were supposed to find Russian sympathizers in leadership positions, (mayors, military) and prearrange area handovers to the Russians, once they arrived. Explains the light, fast Russian columns at the start.
Ritter says the FSS screwed up and were too optimistic.
As good as any other theory right now.
Thanks and I hope you have a warm, soft bed and dry, clean socks! I’m glad I do!
No one but the Russian General Staff knows the true but 50,000 sounds much too low to me. I think 125000 is probably about right. Why the withdrawal of troops? Several reasons. A logistical problem with long lines. Kiev is not going be stormed. Give these troops a well deserved rest. Draw the Ukrainian forces away from Kiev. Finally, preempt a possible false flag chemical attack.
The problem for Russia remains though what to do after Donbass? I assume Mykolaev and Odessa follows, but what if no surrender? How can you denatisify if you leave the regime in place? Even if Kiev was taken, the leadership sets up in Lvov which is probably where most of them are already.
Yeah 50k is probably too low, my guess was 80-100k but it could be even as high as 150k. At the end of the day, even if it’s 150k, my calculations showed that Russia would still have at least 100k more contract (non conscript) troops at their disposal that they could bring in. So either way, there is the potential for serious reinforcements.
Thanks, Nightvision, for tis very detailed sitrep. It is indeed a very valuable addition to this blog.
break the spine of Ukrainian defenses with carpet bombing
I put Fox on for a minute (it was all I could stand) and there’s Biden dedicating the U.S.S Delaware, a nuclear submarine. I guess he was in Norfolk, Virginia or some such. I was Naval Air aboard Nimitz 76-82 in an A6 squadron, but I know nothing about submarines. So, Fox goes off to Ukraine in their reportage and what should they announce but that Russian soldiers booby-trap dead Ukrainian solders so they blow up when their comrades recover them. You have got to be shitting me. These reporters, I figure, they MUST be as thoughtful as I, to look into the BS they spout on-air. They could find Marty, The Saker, Unz and a hundred other sites. They could study. If a guy like me can do it, low-IQ-enough to serve this country and curious enough to know BS when I hear it, they could. I don’t know how they look in the mirror to shave every morning, to be instrumental in furthering lies and fraud. Shame on them. But I guess if you have a job, you read what they feed you. But I was shocked to hear the booby-trap angle. For Christ’s Sake.It must work for them, people are so stupid to form their opinions with this. They’re idiots.
FOX News Interviews Ukrainian President Zelensky – Edits Out Him Responding to Azov Battalion Atrocities “They Are What They Are”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/04/fox-news-interviews-ukrainian-president-zelensky-edits-responding-azov-battalion-atrocities/
Would recommend Gonzalo Lira’s video in system pigs
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PMbsPHQaoQ4
Taken from Voenhronka.ru:
“Two powerful groups are being created in the Donbass on both sides. In total, up to 250-270 thousand people from Russia will turn out (about half – LDNR and volunteer formations), in the region of 2 thousand tanks and a comparable number of artillery systems (MLRS and cannon artillery – without mortars), 300 aircraft, 200-300 helicopters. From Ukraine: 130-150 thousand (including the Reserve Corps of 40 thousand and 20-30 thousand hastily transferred soldiers from near Kyiv, Sumy, Chernigov), within a few hundred tanks, 30 aircraft, 50 helicopters.”
From CNN:
“The US also assesses Putin is now preparing, for the first time, to name an overall commander of the war to achieve greater Russian successes, two US officials said. The US believes Putin will likely name a general who has been in the southern part of Ukraine because that is a place where Russians have succeeded in their objectives.”
Whoever that general is, he could turn into a great Russian military hero if he bags 50,000 Nazis in the Severodonetsk pocket. Particularly if that victory leads (as it most likely will) to Kiev’s capitualation. He could become a big name in Russian history.
Keep your eyes open. A new Suvorov, Bagration, Skobelev, Brusilov, or Zhukov may be in the making.