By Amarynth for the Saker Blog
This will function as an open thread on the SMO in the Ukraine.
To start it off, we look at the early morning Russian Mod Report, in parsed form:
Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry
The Ukrainian grouping in Donbass is suffering significant losses in manpower, weapons and military equipment.
During the liberation of Svyatogorsk in Donetsk People’s Republic in three days of fighting alone, Ukrainian troops suffered:
- losses of over 300 nationalists,
- six tanks,
- 5 armoured combat vehicles of various types,
- 36 field artillery guns and mortars,
- 4 Grad multiple rocket launchers and
- over 20 automotive equipment.
High-precision air-based missiles have hit armoured plant near Kharkov, which have been repairing and restoring tanks and other AFU armoured vehicles.
In addition, high-precision air-based missiles have hit
- 2 command posts, 1
- 3 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as
- 1 battery of Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems near Kharkov.
- 4 weapon and ammunition depots have been destroyed near Malinovka in Kharkov Region, Spornoe in Donetsk People’s Republic and Zvanovka in Lugansk People’s Republic.
- 1 fuel depot for AFU equipment has been destroyed near Chuhuev, Kharkov Region.
Operational-tactical aviation have hit
- 63 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.
The attacks have resulted in the elimination of
- command post of 14th AFU Mechanized Brigade,
- over 160 nationalists,
- 8 tanks,
- 2 Grad multiple rocket launchers,
- 1 artillery battery,
- 1 electronic warfare station and
- 13 vehicles of various purposes.
Russian air defence means have shot down
- 2 MiG-29 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force near Snegirevka, Nikolaev Region, as well as
- 1 Mi-8 helicopter near Belaya Krinitsya, Nikolaev Region.
In addition,
- 11 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down near Donetsk, Rubtsy, Lozovoe, Krasnorechenskoe, Koroviy Yar, Peski Rad’kovskoe in Donetsk People’s Republic, Izyum, Dergachi in Kharkov Region and Chernobaivka in Kherson Region.
- 3 Tochka-U missiles and
- 5 Smerch rockets have been intercepted near Chernobaevka, Kherson Region.
Missile and artillery have hit
- 68 command posts,
- 172 AFU artillery positions, including
- 2 batteries of Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems near Aleksandrovka and Kutuzovka,
- 1 battery of Uragan MLRS near Kitsevka, Kharkov region, as well as
- 261 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.
▫️The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than
- 320 nationalists,
- 4 ammunition depots near Novolenovka in Zaporozhye Region,
- 9 armoured vehicles,
- 3 Grad multiple rocket launchers,
- 15 field artillery and mortars,
- 14 special vehicles, and
- Buk-M1 surface-to-air missile launchers near Shelkoplyasy and OSA-AKM in Verhnyaya Roganka in Kharkov Region.
To my count the Ukronazi military manpower losses touches on +- 800 for one day. I think the Russian MoD is undercounting, in an attempt to be accurate for the day.
Kindly use as open thread. A lot has happened on the front lines, but you may agree with me that at this pace of attrition, this phase cannot continue on for much longer. Something has to give.
WHAT’S NEXT
The world after anti-Russian sanctions (not a forecast, it’s reality)
1- A number of global supply chains will collapse and a major logistical crisis could arise, including the collapse of foreign airlines that will be banned from flying over Russian airspace.
2- The energy crisis will deepen in countries that have imposed sanctions on Russian energy supplies, fossil fuel prices will continue to rise, and the development of the digital economy in the world will slow down.
3- There will be an international food crisis, leading to famine in some countries.
4 – A monetary and financial crisis is possible in some countries or groups of countries, combined with undermining of the stability of some national currencies, runaway inflation and the destruction of the legal system protecting private property.
5 – New regional military conflicts will arise where the situation has not been resolved peacefully for many years or where the important interests of major international players are ignored.
6 – Terrorists, who believe that the Western authorities’ attention is now distracted by the confrontation with Russia, will become more active.
7 – New epidemics will break out, caused by a lack of international cooperation on health and epidemiological issues or caused by the proven use of biological weapons.
8 – International institutions, which have not proved their effectiveness in resolving the situation in Ukraine, such as the Council of Europe, will lose their importance.
9 – New international alliances will be formed, based on Anglo-Saxon criteria that are pragmatic rather than ideological.
10 – As a result, a new security architecture is being created which recognises:
(a) the weakness of Western concepts of international relations such as “rules-based order” and other meaningless Western rubbish;
(b) the collapse of the idea of an America-centric world;
(c) the existence of internationally respected interests of those countries in sharp conflict with the Western world.
In the following post Medwedev says that all of this is not just a forecast, but is a process already underway.
One of the least reported on results from the SMO are the casualty figures. Here are some credible looking estimates from pro-Russian Telegram. My reading from these is around a 6-1 KIA in favor of Russian and Allied troops.And around a 3-1 wounded in favor of Russian and Allied forces:
On Ukrainian losses.
Slavyangrad
Various estimates put the losses of the Ukrainian forces at between,
as an estimate:
80-90k all-in (including KIA, WIA, MIA, POW, non-combat losses, deserted, and fallen ill), according to @Boris_Rozhin (Colonel Casad); and,
with a high degree of certainty:
confirmed KIA—50,127
including MIA—61,451
(as of June 6, 2022)
estimated additional, not included in the above numbers: 5-7k, for a total of 66,451 to 67,451.
according to https://t.me/politjoystic
On Russian and Allied losses.
Slavyangrad
With respect to casualty numbers, the only reasonable way to go here is by way of extrapolation.
DNR: 1,925 KIA, 7,969 WIA
LNR: although the primary fighting is now taking place in the Lugansk area of responsibility, Mariupol evens out the score, so I would put them at about the same—2,000/8,000.
Russia: this one is more difficult. It would be easiest simply to double up the number of DNR, but given the last official numbers published by the Russian MOD, it does not quite work. I would conservatively estimate the losses at 4,500/10,000
Altogether then, we have an estimate of 8,500 KIA and 26,000 WIA for the Allied forces as a whole, for the whole campaign.
Many of you will disagree—putting losses as either lower or higher, depending on your viewpoint, but I will stick by my estimates.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/10154
And a slightly different figure for Ukrainian losses:
Slavyangrad
I would put the numbers of Ukrainian irretrievable losses (unable to continue fighting) at approximately 40,000 KIA for the army and 15,000-20,000 KIA for the National Guard, Border Guard Service. Territorial Defence (volkssturm) is another matter altogether, but many of those would be included in the first two categories, and I have no way of estimating the uncounted remainder.
I would estimate the number of wounded at a 1.5-2/1 ratio (for this war) yielding up to 100,000 WIA.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/10155
Has anyone noticed that some of the Ukrainian troops you see (mostly the Natsik troopers) have a set of rosary beads attached to there collar/shoulder area. If you do notice that you might be interested to know those are “Uniates”,the so-called Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church followers. Mostly from Western Ukraine. I remember seeing a lot of them during the Maidan in 2013-14. A lot of the most fanatical nazis come from those groups.I’ve meant to post about them each time I saw one in todays SMO,but forgot. This video jogged my memory:
+18 extreme.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/10160
I’m afraid those two look like they were shot after surrendering.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt5SqiMU5zM
From South-America, where such reports are numerous
“The bank’s governor, Elvira Nabiullina, will make a statement and answer press questions for the first time since the invasion later on Friday.” “‘Our economy will be open — whoever isn’t interested will be robbing themselves,’ Mr. Putin said.” -NYT (6/10/22)
AFU actually is an abbreviation of SNAFU.